Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#267
Expected Predictive Rating-5.9#252
Pace84.6#3
Improvement+2.0#61

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#247
First Shot-0.5#184
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#334
Layup/Dunks+1.2#130
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#232
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#180
Freethrows-0.5#213
Improvement+1.1#95

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#261
First Shot-2.8#268
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#185
Layups/Dunks+1.1#138
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#59
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#280
Freethrows-2.9#336
Improvement+0.9#113
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.6% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.3 15.2
.500 or above 3.8% 14.1% 3.4%
.500 or above in Conference 15.6% 25.6% 15.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 21.8% 12.2% 22.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Away) - 3.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 33 - 83 - 15
Quad 47 - 610 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 89 @Wyoming L 82-92 9%     0 - 1 -1.1 -0.9 +1.5
  Mon, Nov 10 81 @California L 65-93 8%     0 - 2 -17.8 -9.4 -5.7
  Sat, Nov 15 136 Pacific L 73-85 34%     0 - 3 -13.4 -7.6 -4.5
  Fri, Nov 21 243 @Portland L 85-103 34%     0 - 4 -19.6 +3.0 -20.7
  Sat, Nov 22 132 St. Thomas W 88-80 24%     1 - 4 +9.7 +8.3 +0.8
  Sun, Nov 23 148 Northern Colorado L 93-97 27%     1 - 5 -3.4 +6.7 -9.5
  Sat, Nov 29 292 Pepperdine W 83-69 67%     2 - 5 +3.8 +7.2 -3.5
  Thu, Dec 4 255 Cal Poly L 91-94 60%     2 - 6 0 - 1 -11.3 -3.0 -7.7
  Sat, Dec 6 110 @Hawaii L 59-69 13%     2 - 7 0 - 2 -3.5 -8.8 +5.7
  Sat, Dec 13 313 @Denver W 105-86 51%     3 - 7 +13.1 +14.2 -2.8
  Sun, Dec 21 51 @Oklahoma St. L 80-99 4%    
  Sun, Dec 28 40 @SMU L 74-95 3%    
  Thu, Jan 1 150 UC Santa Barbara L 79-82 38%    
  Sat, Jan 3 122 UC Irvine L 73-79 30%    
  Thu, Jan 8 85 @UC San Diego L 75-90 8%    
  Sat, Jan 10 220 Cal St. Northridge W 88-87 53%    
  Thu, Jan 15 197 @UC Davis L 76-82 28%    
  Sat, Jan 17 268 @UC Riverside L 79-82 39%    
  Thu, Jan 22 276 Long Beach St. W 81-78 62%    
  Sat, Jan 24 255 @Cal Poly L 89-92 38%    
  Sat, Jan 31 150 @UC Santa Barbara L 76-85 20%    
  Thu, Feb 5 268 UC Riverside W 82-79 61%    
  Sat, Feb 7 312 Cal St. Bakersfield W 85-79 71%    
  Thu, Feb 12 276 @Long Beach St. L 78-81 41%    
  Sat, Feb 14 122 @UC Irvine L 70-82 15%    
  Thu, Feb 19 197 UC Davis L 78-79 49%    
  Sat, Feb 21 312 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 83-82 51%    
  Sat, Feb 28 110 Hawaii L 75-81 29%    
  Thu, Mar 5 85 UC San Diego L 78-87 21%    
  Sat, Mar 7 220 @Cal St. Northridge L 85-90 32%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 4.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.2 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.7 2.7 0.5 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.7 3.2 0.6 0.0 13.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.7 6.8 3.7 0.6 0.0 15.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.1 6.8 4.1 0.6 0.1 16.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.7 6.3 3.3 0.5 0.0 16.6 10th
11th 0.2 0.9 2.4 4.1 4.1 1.8 0.2 0.0 13.6 11th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.6 5.6 9.5 12.7 14.5 15.0 13.0 10.5 7.2 4.2 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 64.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 25.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 5.1% 5.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.5% 10.6% 10.6% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-7 1.1% 6.6% 6.6% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
12-8 2.4% 3.4% 3.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.4
11-9 4.2% 2.2% 2.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.1
10-10 7.2% 1.0% 1.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 7.2
9-11 10.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.4
8-12 13.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.9
7-13 15.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.0
6-14 14.5% 14.5
5-15 12.7% 12.7
4-16 9.5% 9.5
3-17 5.6% 5.6
2-18 2.6% 2.6
1-19 0.9% 0.9
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%