Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#211
Expected Predictive Rating-1.6#205
Pace62.7#331
Improvement-0.5#343

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#158
First Shot-1.7#232
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#56
Layup/Dunks-1.9#247
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#123
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#211
Freethrows+0.5#145
Improvement-0.2#267

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#269
First Shot-2.0#238
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#249
Layups/Dunks-0.1#191
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#15
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#275
Freethrows-2.4#310
Improvement-0.3#329
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 3.0% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.3 15.2
.500 or above 37.3% 62.3% 34.1%
.500 or above in Conference 45.9% 59.6% 44.2%
Conference Champion 1.6% 3.1% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 6.6% 3.2% 7.1%
First Four0.8% 0.3% 0.8%
First Round2.0% 2.9% 1.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: USC (Away) - 11.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 64 - 11
Quad 49 - 513 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 25   @ San Diego St. L 57-80 5%     0 - 1 -6.2 -5.5 -0.9
  Nov 11, 2022 134   Pepperdine W 74-71 42%     1 - 1 +2.5 +3.0 -0.4
  Nov 13, 2022 196   Vermont W 94-85 2OT 58%     2 - 1 +4.4 +3.0 -0.1
  Nov 18, 2022 228   @ Pacific W 94-91 2OT 43%     3 - 1 +2.4 +2.4 -0.5
  Nov 26, 2022 246   Utah Tech L 60-66 57%     3 - 2 -10.3 -0.7 -10.5
  Nov 27, 2022 297   @ North Dakota L 57-73 58%     3 - 3 -20.6 -11.1 -12.0
  Nov 30, 2022 114   @ Seattle L 62-69 19%     3 - 4 -0.1 -2.0 +1.2
  Dec 07, 2022 73   @ USC L 61-74 11%    
  Dec 10, 2022 183   Southern Utah L 74-76 43%    
  Dec 21, 2022 260   Sacramento St. W 69-64 70%    
  Dec 29, 2022 164   UC Santa Barbara W 67-66 50%    
  Dec 31, 2022 299   Cal St. Northridge W 70-62 77%    
  Jan 05, 2023 152   @ UC Riverside L 63-70 27%    
  Jan 07, 2023 143   Hawaii L 63-64 46%    
  Jan 11, 2023 49   @ UC Irvine L 57-72 8%    
  Jan 14, 2023 161   @ UC Davis L 70-76 29%    
  Jan 16, 2023 264   Cal St. Bakersfield W 64-58 70%    
  Jan 19, 2023 165   @ Long Beach St. L 68-74 30%    
  Jan 21, 2023 299   @ Cal St. Northridge W 67-65 58%    
  Jan 26, 2023 49   UC Irvine L 60-69 21%    
  Jan 28, 2023 285   @ Cal Poly W 64-63 53%    
  Feb 02, 2023 165   Long Beach St. W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 04, 2023 152   UC Riverside L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 12, 2023 143   @ Hawaii L 60-67 26%    
  Feb 15, 2023 283   @ UC San Diego W 67-66 53%    
  Feb 18, 2023 285   Cal Poly W 67-60 73%    
  Feb 20, 2023 164   @ UC Santa Barbara L 63-69 30%    
  Feb 23, 2023 161   UC Davis W 73-72 49%    
  Feb 25, 2023 264   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 61-62 50%    
  Mar 04, 2023 283   UC San Diego W 70-63 73%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 9 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.1 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 2.8 3.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 8.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 3.8 3.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.5 4.6 1.6 0.2 12.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 5.4 5.0 1.5 0.1 13.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.7 4.8 1.4 0.1 14.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.9 4.1 1.2 0.1 12.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.7 3.0 0.6 0.1 9.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.4 1.7 0.4 0.0 6.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.8 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.5 7.7 10.5 12.3 13.1 12.3 11.0 8.8 6.1 4.0 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 95.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 70.9% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 42.2% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 21.7% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 12.7% 12.7% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.4% 12.8% 12.8% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-4 1.0% 13.8% 13.8% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
15-5 2.3% 8.7% 8.7% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.1
14-6 4.0% 6.9% 6.9% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.7
13-7 6.1% 5.0% 5.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.8
12-8 8.8% 4.0% 4.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 8.4
11-9 11.0% 2.9% 2.9% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.7
10-10 12.3% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.2 12.1
9-11 13.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 12.9
8-12 12.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 12.1
7-13 10.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 10.5
6-14 7.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.6
5-15 5.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.5
4-16 2.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.9
3-17 1.4% 1.4
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.0 97.7 0.0%