Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -2.5 205
Results Rating -0.8 171
Consistency 0.16 227
Pace 79.5 6
Improvement +1.3 137

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 195 C+ D B- C+ C
Defense C- 217 D C B- C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 223 C 59% 154 -0.6 202
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% 184 C- 37% 201 -0.2 187
Three Pointers 42% 154 B- 36% 116 +1.7 125
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 202 C+ +1.0 129
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.04 145
Second Chance D 25.0% 325 C- 0.98 259 D 0.25 320
Turnovers from Steals B- 8.7% 104
Other Turnovers C+ 6.9% 141
Turnovers B- 15.6% 108
Freethrows C+ 0.32 137 C 72% 205 C+ 0.23 142
Total Offense C- -1.0 195

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 40% 304 C 11.2% 192
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 35% 56 C+ 4.3% 128
Three Pointers B 90% 44 B 0.4% 68
Total C 56% 171 C+ 5.3% 140

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 290 D- 65% 335 +0.1 187
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 317 D 42% 306 -1.1 102
Three Pointers 49% 12 C- 35% 218 +4.8 345
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 230 D +3.3 309
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 306
Second Chance C+ 29.3% 137 C- 1.05 216 C 0.31 171
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.0% 140
Other Turnovers B 8.3% 69
Turnovers B- 18.3% 83
Freethrows C 0.31 193 C 72% 166 C 0.22 190
Total Defense C- -1.5 217

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 161 D 7.0% 325
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 258 C+ 5.8% 111
Three Pointers D- 90% 337 B+ 1.9% 33
Total D+ 61% 296 D+ 4.3% 283

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.0 12 17.3 171
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 17 0.18 228
Consistency 0.13 242 0.11 115
Improvement +1.3 114 +0.0 191

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 232 204 176
Results Rating Rank 233 179 150
Conference Record 10 - 10 11 - 9 13 - 7
Conference Finish 7 5 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 4% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.5 15.1
.500 or above 22% 40% 9%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 1% 2% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 4% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Hawaii (Home) - 40.9% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 36 - 87 - 15
Quad 48 - 215 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 100 @Wyoming L 82 - 92 16% -3  14% 0 - 1 C- -2 D -4 D+ D- D- B +4 C+ B D-
 Mon, Nov 10 68 @California L 65 - 93 10% -16  0% 0 - 2 F+ -16 F -11 C- F D+ C- -3 B+ C- F+
 Sat, Nov 15 116 Pacific L 73 - 85 40% -14  0% 0 - 3 D- -12 F+ -9 F D- A+ C -1 F A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 21 221 @Portland L 85 - 103 42% -13  2% 0 - 4 F -19 C +1 A F C+ F -18 F F D-
 Sat, Nov 22 128 St. Thomas W 88 - 80 31% -1  39% 1 - 4 B +11 B- +4 C D- A B+ +5 A+ D D-
 Sun, Nov 23 165 Northern Colorado L 93 - 97 42% -4  13% 1 - 5 C- -4 B- +4 C+ D- A+ D- -8 C D F
 Sat, Nov 29 279 Pepperdine W 83 - 69 76% +5  72% 2 - 5 C+ +4 C+ +2 C B B+ B- +2 B+ B C
 Thu, Dec 4 228 Cal Poly L 91 - 94 66% -5  6% 2 - 6 0 - 1 D -10 D -5 C C- F+ D+ -4 F A+ A
 Sat, Dec 6 117 @Hawaii L 59 - 69 21% -9  1% 2 - 7 0 - 2 C- -4 F -12 F F A- A- +8 B- B- B-
 Sat, Dec 13 223 @Denver W 105 - 86 43% +19  96% 3 - 7 A +18 A+ +15 A+ B D+ B- +2 B+ F B-
 Sun, Dec 21 64 @Oklahoma St. L 89 - 94 10% -10  0% 3 - 8 B- +7 B +7 A B+ C+ C+ +0 F+ B A+
 Sun, Dec 28 31 @SMU L 63 - 110 4% -25  0% 3 - 9 F -30 F -12 F D+ F F -13 F D+ C
 Thu, Jan 1 140 UC Santa Barbara W 95 - 84 48% +13  97% 4 - 9 1 - 2 B +9 B+ +8 B C A- C+ +0 F C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 120 UC Irvine L 64 - 86 41% -9  16% 4 - 10 1 - 3 F -22 D -6 D C- B+ F -16 F F A-
 Thu, Jan 8 133 @UC San Diego W 88 - 71 24% +4  52% 5 - 10 2 - 3 A +22 A+ +18 A+ C A+ B +4 A- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 156 Cal St. Northridge W 86 - 79 52% -1  32% 6 - 10 3 - 3 C+ +4 C +1 B+ D B- B- +3 C B C+
 Thu, Jan 15 176 @UC Davis L 69 - 74 33% -9  0% 6 - 11 3 - 4 C- -3 F+ -9 F C- D+ B+ +6 B- F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 281 @UC Riverside L 72 - 81 55% -9  0% 6 - 12 3 - 5 D- -13 F -11 F D- D- C -1 F A- B+
 Thu, Jan 22 262 Long Beach St. W 71 - 61 72% +11  98% 7 - 12 4 - 5 C +1 D -6 B+ F D+ A- +7 C+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 228 @Cal Poly W 93 - 78 43% +8  89% 8 - 12 5 - 5 B+ +14 A +12 A F+ B- B- +2 C- F A
 Sat, Jan 31 140 @UC Santa Barbara L 69 - 83 26% -13  0% 8 - 13 5 - 6 D -10 F -11 D D F+ C+ +1 D B+ A-
 Thu, Feb 5 281 UC Riverside W 78 - 72 76% -1  43% 9 - 13 6 - 6 C- -4 D- -6 D- F B- B- +2 B- A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 331 Cal St. Bakersfield W 82 - 66 86% +16  97% 10 - 13 7 - 6 C+ +2 D -5 B- F B B+ +6 B- C+ B
 Thu, Feb 12 262 @Long Beach St. W 86 - 82 51% -4  20% 11 - 13 8 - 6 C +1 B- +5 C- A- A- D+ -4 F A B
 Sat, Feb 14 120 @UC Irvine L 65 - 86 21% -7  31% 11 - 14 8 - 7 F+ -15 D -6 D- B- B+ F+ -9 F C B+
 Thu, Feb 19 176 UC Davis W 93 - 92 56% -8  1% 12 - 14 9 - 7 C- -3 A+ +21 A+ D+ B F -24 F D+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 331 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 88 - 80 71% -2  32% 13 - 14 10 - 7 C -0 B- +5 A+ F B D -5 D C F
 Sat, Feb 28 117 Hawaii L 77 - 79 41%
 Thu, Mar 5 133 UC San Diego L 77 - 78 45%
 Sat, Mar 7 156 @Cal St. Northridge L 84 - 89 30%
Totals 14 - 16 11 - 9 -3 C- -1 C+ C+ C C- -1 B- C C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C C- B- C+ 37% 38% 42% C C+ D C- D B- C+ C C+ C- D- D C- D 35% 16% 49% C- D C+ C- C B- C C C
1.07 59% 37% 36% +1 0 1.04 25% 1.0 .25 16% .32 72% .23 1.11 65% 42% 35% +3 0 1.10 29% 1.0 .31 18% .31 72% .23
Nov
8		 Wyoming D B+ D F D+ 45% 24% 31% D+ D+ F+ D D- D- A+ B- A+ B A- D- D- C+ 44% 11% 46% D+ C+ A+ F B D- F A+ F+
0.98 65% 33% 19% -5 0 0.92 18% 0.9 .16 20% .64 72% .46 1.10 48% 50% 38% 0 +2 1.05 25% 1.2 .30 13% .51 59% .30
Nov
10		 California F B C- F C- 38% 23% 39% C- C- C- F F D+ F F F C- B+ A+ D+ A- 36% 15% 49% D- B+ C- C- C- F+ F F F
0.84 61% 36% 21% -7 0 0.87 27% 0.6 .16 18% .17 45% .08 1.20 52% 22% 38% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.1 .31 10% .43 87% .38
Nov
15		 Pacific F+ F F F F 47% 21% 32% A F C- F D- A+ C- A C+ C F+ F F F 46% 26% 28% C+ F A+ A- A+ A- C- F+ D+
0.93 42% 29% 24% -14 +1 0.74 23% 0.8 .17 9% .31 77% .24 1.09 65% 54% 50% +14 0 1.30 25% 0.9 .21 24% .29 82% .24
Nov
21		 Portland C B B- A+ A+ 38% 14% 48% B- A D- F F C+ D+ F F F F+ F F F 46% 18% 36% D+ F B+ F F D- B B B+
1.09 64% 38% 43% +8 +1 1.21 26% 0.6 .16 17% .28 50% .14 1.32 69% 50% 50% +16 +1 1.36 24% 2.5 .60 17% .26 71% .18
Nov
22		 St. Thomas B- B F C- C 39% 9% 52% B- C F A- D- A A+ A+ A+ B+ C C- A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% B- A+ D+ F+ D D- B F D
1.15 67% 20% 32% 0 +2 1.06 19% 1.3 .25 13% .38 92% .35 1.05 64% 38% 21% -6 +1 0.92 23% 1.1 .26 12% .25 94% .24
Nov
23		 Northern Colorado B- C F C- C 55% 16% 30% B C+ D D- D- A+ A F+ B+ D- D- C B- C+ 35% 15% 51% C- C B F D F F F F
1.15 57% 30% 32% -3 +2 1.00 21% 1.0 .21 5% .43 70% .30 1.20 68% 38% 32% +2 +1 1.07 24% 1.5 .36 11% .56 85% .47
Nov
29		 Pepperdine C+ A- C+ D- C 37% 17% 46% D+ C C+ B+ B B+ F D F B- D- A A+ A 36% 15% 49% D- B+ A+ F B C F F F
1.18 68% 40% 30% +1 0 1.05 33% 1.2 .41 13% .15 67% .10 0.98 65% 29% 22% -8 +1 0.87 18% 1.2 .21 18% .45 88% .40
Dec
4		 Cal Poly D F+ A- A C+ 41% 22% 37% D+ C C- C C- F+ A+ D A+ D+ C F F F 27% 4% 69% C+ F A+ A+ A+ A F B F
1.06 50% 46% 41% +2 0 1.07 30% 1.1 .33 20% .42 69% .29 1.10 57% 50% 50% +17 +1 1.38 17% 0.0 .00 26% .47 73% .35
Dec
6		 Hawaii F F+ C- F F 54% 14% 32% A- F F+ F F A- D+ C- D+ A- D+ A+ B- B 30% 8% 62% C B- D+ A B- B- A- A A
0.81 45% 38% 17% -15 +2 0.75 18% 0.5 .09 12% .28 67% .19 0.95 63% 0% 30% -5 +1 0.94 33% 0.9 .28 21% .29 65% .19
Dec
13		 Denver A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 39% 11% 50% B- A+ D+ A+ B D+ B B+ B+ B- D+ A+ A A 42% 16% 42% F B+ C- F F B- D A+ C+
1.37 64% 50% 50% +15 +1 1.36 31% 1.4 .44 14% .35 74% .26 1.12 58% 22% 29% -5 +1 0.93 32% 1.6 .51 16% .34 64% .22
Dec
21		 Oklahoma St. B B- D A+ A+ 42% 11% 47% B A B- A- B+ C+ A+ F A C+ C+ D- F F 40% 12% 47% B F+ C+ A- B A+ C+ A B
1.12 59% 33% 44% +7 +1 1.19 31% 1.3 .40 18% .52 50% .26 1.18 57% 43% 48% +10 +1 1.25 31% 0.8 .26 21% .34 67% .22
Dec
28		 SMU F F A+ F F 25% 27% 47% D F B+ F D+ F A+ D+ A F F A+ F F 31% 26% 43% B- F F A D+ C C C+ C+
0.83 31% 50% 25% -10 -2 0.78 36% 0.7 .24 25% .38 68% .26 1.44 84% 31% 54% +19 -1 1.38 50% 0.9 .43 14% .29 74% .21
Jan
1		 UC Santa Barbara B+ A+ A+ F B+ 43% 25% 31% C- B F A+ C A- A+ A A+ C+ F D F F 27% 14% 59% C+ F D- A C+ A+ A+ F B+
1.25 77% 54% 25% +8 0 1.18 17% 1.8 .31 13% .56 81% .45 1.10 85% 43% 45% +17 0 1.37 37% 0.8 .30 32% .19 100% .19
Jan
3		 UC Irvine D F F A D+ 28% 31% 41% D- D D+ C+ C- B+ D- B D F F A+ F F 40% 10% 50% F F F F F A- D- A+ C
0.92 27% 24% 41% -9 -2 0.80 30% 0.9 .28 14% .20 75% .15 1.24 68% 20% 46% +11 +1 1.27 39% 1.5 .61 22% .35 58% .20
Jan
8		 UC San Diego A+ A+ F A+ A+ 29% 21% 50% D+ A+ F A+ C A+ A+ F A- B C- B- A A 27% 6% 67% C A- F F F A+ F F F
1.27 73% 9% 50% +10 -1 1.21 18% 1.7 .30 9% .38 63% .24 1.02 62% 33% 27% -6 +1 0.92 35% 1.3 .44 24% .38 90% .34
Jan
10		 Cal St. Northridge C C+ F A+ B 41% 15% 44% B B+ D C- D B- A+ F A- B- D+ A+ C C 47% 15% 38% C- C A- C B C+ B+ A+ A+
1.10 59% 25% 42% +4 +1 1.11 23% 1.1 .26 14% .42 68% .28 1.01 61% 22% 35% -1 +1 1.03 26% 1.0 .26 18% .25 38% .09
Jan
15		 UC Davis F+ F F B- F 40% 17% 42% C F D+ C C- D+ A+ F A+ B+ C- D+ A+ B+ 47% 11% 42% F B- F C F A+ F A F
0.93 48% 11% 36% -7 +1 0.88 28% 1.0 .28 20% .54 59% .32 0.99 62% 40% 26% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.0 .38 27% .57 68% .39
Jan
17		 UC Riverside F B- F+ F F 39% 21% 39% C- F D- D+ D- D- A+ C+ A+ C F F C- F 34% 26% 40% B+ F A- A A- B+ D- F F
0.93 64% 33% 14% -11 0 0.80 24% 0.9 .21 18% .49 71% .35 1.04 71% 54% 35% +9 -1 1.18 21% 0.7 .14 22% .36 82% .30
Jan
22		 Long Beach St. D A+ A+ F A 34% 27% 39% D- B+ F F F D+ C- B C+ A- D- B- B+ B- 27% 20% 53% D C+ C+ A+ A+ A+ D- D+ F+
1.04 73% 75% 24% +9 -1 1.18 19% 0.8 .15 19% .35 79% .27 0.90 67% 33% 29% -3 -1 0.96 26% 0.6 .14 25% .33 76% .25
Jan
24		 Cal Poly A B A+ A A 38% 10% 52% B- A C+ F F+ B- A+ A A+ B- B- F C+ D+ 28% 6% 67% B- C- F C+ F A B B B+
1.26 65% 60% 41% +10 +1 1.25 34% 0.7 .24 15% .41 81% .33 1.06 53% 100% 33% +1 +1 1.07 43% 0.9 .40 26% .27 73% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 UC Santa Barbara F A- F B- D 31% 25% 43% D D F A+ D F+ D D- D- C+ F F B D+ 38% 9% 53% D- D D+ A+ B+ A- C+ D- C
0.94 69% 15% 36% -1 -1 0.98 15% 1.6 .24 20% .31 67% .21 1.13 75% 60% 32% +7 +1 1.19 34% 0.7 .25 22% .30 82% .24
Feb
5		 UC Riverside D- F+ F C F 62% 10% 29% A+ D- F C+ F B- A+ A+ A+ B- B- C- C+ C+ 34% 21% 45% B- B- A+ A A+ F A- A+ A+
1.03 50% 20% 33% -7 +3 0.94 17% 1.0 .17 13% .49 84% .41 0.95 52% 38% 32% -3 0 0.95 14% 0.7 .09 12% .24 56% .14
Feb
7		 Cal St. Bakersfield D F A+ A+ B- 35% 15% 50% C B- D- F F B C C+ C+ B+ C B- A+ A- 42% 17% 40% F B- C- B C+ B F+ A+ B
1.11 44% 63% 42% +5 0 1.13 31% 0.5 .15 15% .36 74% .27 0.89 55% 33% 19% -11 +1 0.81 33% 0.9 .28 22% .41 54% .22
Feb
12		 Long Beach St. B- C F B+ D+ 45% 18% 38% B- C- C+ A A- A- C- A C+ D+ F F C F 33% 24% 43% D F A+ F A B F C F
1.16 60% 20% 38% 0 +1 1.04 31% 1.5 .46 13% .34 82% .28 1.11 81% 58% 33% +12 -1 1.24 12% 1.3 .15 20% .39 74% .29
Feb
14		 UC Irvine D F A+ F D 22% 31% 47% F+ D- F A+ B- B+ F F F F+ F+ F F F 31% 27% 42% B- F B- D- C B+ A+ A A+
0.88 15% 56% 26% -10 -2 0.78 20% 1.7 .34 15% .14 56% .08 1.17 65% 73% 43% +18 -1 1.35 28% 1.1 .32 20% .17 60% .10
Feb
19		 UC Davis A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 32% 21% 47% D- A+ C D- D+ B C+ A+ A F F C- F F 33% 16% 51% D+ F D C D+ F F C F
1.40 87% 70% 45% +24 -1 1.49 32% 0.9 .27 17% .34 89% .31 1.38 71% 38% 42% +10 0 1.24 30% 1.0 .30 9% .53 75% .40
Feb
21		 Cal St. Bakersfield B- A+ B- A+ A+ 15% 29% 56% F A+ F B+ F B D+ F+ D D F B A D- 25% 39% 36% A- D B D- C F C- F D-
1.20 75% 44% 48% +16 -3 1.29 19% 1.2 .22 15% .34 67% .22 1.09 86% 32% 25% 0 -3 0.95 28% 1.1 .30 14% .36 83% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 0.9 1st
2nd 0.3 3.0 3.3 2nd
3rd 6.1 2.1 8.1 3rd
4th 1.8 16.4 0.2 18.4 4th
5th 0.2 16.7 5.0 21.9 5th
6th 4.3 18.0 0.1 22.3 6th
7th 15.4 5.4 20.8 7th
8th 4.2 4.2 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 24.0 42.0 27.9 6.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 14.0% 0.9    0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 6.2% 8.3% 8.3% 14.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 5.7
12-8 27.9% 3.4% 3.4% 14.7 0.3 0.7 0.0 26.9
11-9 42.0% 1.7% 1.7% 15.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 41.2
10-10 24.0% 0.8% 0.8% 15.7 0.1 0.1 23.8
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 14.7 97.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 14.0 23.5 52.9 23.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.1%
Lose Out 15.3%