Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#208
Expected Predictive Rating-3.3#229
Pace64.4#298
Improvement-0.4#211

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#131
First Shot+3.4#84
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#296
Layup/Dunks+2.9#78
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#76
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#322
Freethrows+3.9#10
Improvement-2.7#347

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#283
First Shot-1.4#226
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#296
Layups/Dunks-0.1#199
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#67
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#300
Freethrows+0.1#179
Improvement+2.3#23
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.6% 5.0% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.4
.500 or above 39.3% 48.3% 26.8%
.500 or above in Conference 54.1% 58.8% 47.7%
Conference Champion 3.3% 4.3% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.2% 4.2% 6.5%
First Four0.9% 0.6% 1.3%
First Round4.3% 4.7% 3.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pacific (Home) - 58.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 64 - 11
Quad 410 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 82   @ Santa Clara L 77-84 14%     0 - 1 +2.7 +11.8 -9.4
  Nov 11, 2021 280   @ San Jose St. L 76-78 55%     0 - 2 -5.3 +4.6 -9.9
  Nov 16, 2021 262   George Washington W 74-59 74%     1 - 2 +6.4 +3.0 +4.2
  Nov 19, 2021 153   @ San Diego W 57-55 29%     2 - 2 +5.8 -6.8 +12.7
  Nov 23, 2021 286   UT Rio Grande Valley L 67-72 67%     2 - 3 -11.7 -14.0 +2.6
  Nov 24, 2021 317   @ Northern Arizona W 73-56 64%     3 - 3 +11.2 +4.7 +8.5
  Nov 29, 2021 84   Wyoming L 66-79 29%     3 - 4 -9.4 +0.3 -10.9
  Dec 04, 2021 187   Pacific W 68-66 58%    
  Dec 08, 2021 48   @ San Diego St. L 57-72 8%    
  Dec 30, 2021 206   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 64-67 39%    
  Jan 01, 2022 316   @ Cal Poly W 68-64 65%    
  Jan 04, 2022 297   Long Beach St. W 80-72 77%    
  Jan 06, 2022 188   Hawaii W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 13, 2022 271   Cal St. Northridge W 70-63 73%    
  Jan 15, 2022 118   UC Santa Barbara L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 20, 2022 74   @ UC Irvine L 59-71 13%    
  Jan 22, 2022 193   UC San Diego W 71-69 59%    
  Jan 27, 2022 212   @ UC Davis L 71-74 39%    
  Jan 29, 2022 139   @ UC Riverside L 62-69 26%    
  Feb 03, 2022 316   Cal Poly W 71-61 80%    
  Feb 05, 2022 206   Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-64 60%    
  Feb 08, 2022 297   @ Long Beach St. W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 13, 2022 188   @ Hawaii L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 17, 2022 118   @ UC Santa Barbara L 64-72 24%    
  Feb 19, 2022 271   @ Cal St. Northridge W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 24, 2022 74   UC Irvine L 62-68 31%    
  Feb 26, 2022 193   @ UC San Diego L 68-72 37%    
  Mar 03, 2022 139   UC Riverside L 65-66 46%    
  Mar 05, 2022 212   UC Davis W 74-71 61%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.5 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 7.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.8 3.9 1.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.5 4.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.2 1.6 5.1 4.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 13.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 5.1 5.4 1.8 0.1 0.0 13.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.8 4.2 1.4 0.1 12.1 7th
8th 0.2 1.5 3.8 3.5 1.2 0.0 10.1 8th
9th 0.3 1.4 3.0 2.9 0.8 0.1 8.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 5.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 2.8 11th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.3 4.2 6.2 8.8 10.6 12.2 13.2 12.1 9.6 8.2 5.1 3.1 1.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 92.8% 0.3    0.2 0.0
17-3 68.9% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 53.6% 1.0    0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 30.8% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 8.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 6.1% 6.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.3% 37.7% 37.7% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.2
17-3 0.5% 24.9% 24.9% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-4 1.9% 12.6% 12.6% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.7
15-5 3.1% 16.2% 16.2% 14.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 2.6
14-6 5.1% 8.5% 8.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 4.7
13-7 8.2% 10.6% 10.6% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 7.4
12-8 9.6% 7.1% 7.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 9.0
11-9 12.1% 4.7% 4.7% 15.7 0.2 0.4 11.5
10-10 13.2% 3.9% 3.9% 15.8 0.1 0.4 12.7
9-11 12.2% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 11.9
8-12 10.6% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 10.3
7-13 8.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 8.7
6-14 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.2
5-15 4.2% 4.2
4-16 2.3% 2.3
3-17 1.1% 1.1
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 1.9 95.4 0.0%