Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -10.9 329
Results Rating -10.6 326
Consistency 0.12 22
Pace 73.5 53
Improvement -0.8 220

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 309 F+ C- D B+ F+
Defense D 321 D+ D- C+ D- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 237 D+ 55% 270 -2.4 274
2 Pt. Jumpers 64% 5 D+ 34% 295 +3.9 28
Three Pointers 29% 356 F+ 29% 346 -8.2 358
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ -1.9 352 D- -4.8 333
1st FG Attempt F+ 0.89 350
Second Chance C 30.5% 178 D+ 0.96 292 C- 0.29 220
Opponents' Steals D+ 10.6% 294
Other Turnovers D+ 8.0% 284
Turnovers D 18.7% 307
Freethrows B+ 0.36 26 B- 74% 124 B+ 0.27 26
Total Offense D -5.4 309

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D 39% 308 C- 11.8% 235
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 31% 94 D+ 6.7% 294
Three Pointers C- 81% 241 D+ 1.3% 301
Total D- 46% 340 D 7.0% 322


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 155 C 59% 200 +0.8 210
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 210 F+ 44% 346 +0.7 246
Three Pointers 41% 171 D 37% 297 +1.7 268
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 210 D +2.9 291
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.09 284
Second Chance F+ 36.7% 355 C- 1.06 244 D- 0.39 342
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.0% 142
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 143
Turnovers C+ 17.5% 136
Freethrows D- 0.37 337 C 73% 194 D- 0.27 334
Total Defense D -5.5 321

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 179 B- 14.0% 65
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 248 B+ 8.6% 34
Three Pointers D 88% 303 C 0.8% 165
Total C- 57% 224 B 7.5% 47

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 153 16.1 17
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 146 0.21 307
Consistency 0.10 43 0.11 62
Improvement +0.7 154 -1.5 271

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 333 329 322
Results Rating Rank 328 325 315
Conference Record 2 - 18 2 - 18 3 - 17
Conference Finish 11 11 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Cal Poly (Away) - 17.3% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 6
Quad 32 - 102 - 16
Quad 44 - 86 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 71 @California L 60 - 87 3% -14  0% 0 - 1 F+ -16 F -11 D- F F D+ -3 F F A
 Tue, Nov 11 364 Western Illinois W 74 - 58 85% +7  89% 1 - 1 D+ -6 D- -8 F+ F+ F B- +2 D- C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 73 @Mississippi L 60 - 82 3% -11  2% 1 - 2 D -11 D+ -3 C- C+ D- F -11 B+ D- F
 Mon, Nov 17 153 @Portland St. L 80 - 93 10% -7  0% 1 - 3 D -10 B +6 D+ A+ F F -15 F F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 365 Mississippi Valley W 86 - 70 90% +10  73% 2 - 3 D -9 D -5 F B- A- D -5 D B- F
 Tue, Nov 25 74 @Florida St. L 59 - 89 3% -13  12% 2 - 4 F -19 F -20 F B+ F B +5 B F+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 131 @Fresno St. W 76 - 71 8% -4  13% 3 - 4 B +10 B- +4 D D A B+ +6 A+ F A
 Thu, Dec 4 170 @Cal St. Northridge L 66 - 87 11% -7  17% 3 - 5 0 - 1 F -19 F -11 F A F D -6 F+ F C
 Sat, Dec 6 139 @UC Santa Barbara L 84 - 109 9% -14  2% 3 - 6 0 - 2 F -21 B- +5 A F C F -25 F F D-
 Thu, Dec 11 130 North Dakota St. L 69 - 80 18% -6  14% 3 - 7 D- -12 F -11 F B D- C -1 A+ F B+
 Sat, Dec 13 274 Pepperdine L 62 - 70 44% -4  12% 3 - 8 F+ -17 F -16 F F F C- -2 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 23 182 Idaho W 64 - 63 27% +2  72% 4 - 8 C- -3 F+ -9 C+ C- F B+ +6 A C C+
 Thu, Jan 1 116 UC Irvine L 77 - 81 15% -6  0% 4 - 9 0 - 3 C- -4 B+ +7 C B+ A F -11 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 3 171 @UC Davis W 81 - 79 11% -2  27% 5 - 9 1 - 3 C+ +4 B- +5 D B+ A C -1 D+ F+ B-
 Thu, Jan 8 277 UC Riverside W 67 - 66 44% +0  53% 6 - 9 2 - 3 D -8 F -12 F A+ F B- +3 D+ A A
 Sat, Jan 10 269 @Long Beach St. L 75 - 81 23% -5  23% 6 - 10 2 - 4 D -9 D- -7 D+ F D+ C- -2 D F+ B+
 Thu, Jan 15 139 UC Santa Barbara L 69 - 75 20% -9  0% 6 - 11 2 - 5 D+ -8 C -0 F A A- F+ -8 D+ B C-
 Sat, Jan 17 133 UC San Diego L 62 - 83 18% -13  6% 6 - 12 2 - 6 F -22 F -13 D- F F F+ -9 C+ D- F
 Thu, Jan 22 115 @Hawaii L 71 - 98 6% -18  0% 6 - 13 2 - 7 F -21 D -5 F F A+ F -13 B F D+
 Thu, Jan 29 230 Cal Poly L 79 - 104 36% -15  15% 6 - 14 2 - 8 F -32 F+ -9 D+ A- F F -20 F D- A-
 Sat, Jan 31 171 UC Davis L 72 - 80 25% -0  36% 6 - 15 2 - 9 D- -12 D+ -4 C- B- D- D- -8 B F F+
 Thu, Feb 5 116 @UC Irvine L 62 - 78 7% -5  26% 6 - 16 2 - 10 D -10 D- -8 F B+ F C- -2 C+ A- F
 Sat, Feb 7 191 @Cal St. Fullerton L 66 - 82 13% -16  0% 6 - 17 2 - 11 F+ -15 F -13 F C- D- C -1 D A- C-
 Thu, Feb 12 115 Hawaii L 74 - 89 15% -10  9% 6 - 18 2 - 12 F+ -15 C- -1 C+ D+ C+ F -13 D+ F C-
 Thu, Feb 19 277 @UC Riverside L 65 - 93 24% -15  1% 6 - 19 2 - 13 F -31 F -17 F F D F -12 F A- D-
 Sat, Feb 21 191 Cal St. Fullerton L 80 - 88 28% +2  63% 6 - 20 2 - 14 D- -13 D+ -2 F+ C A F -10 F B- C-
 Thu, Feb 26 133 @UC San Diego L 72 - 84 8% -11  1% 6 - 21 2 - 15 D+ -7 C -0 C F D D- -7 B- F C+
 Sat, Feb 28 269 Long Beach St. L 87 - 88 43% -3  15% 6 - 22 2 - 16 D -10 C+ +3 C- C A F -13 F A+ A
 Thu, Mar 5 170 Cal St. Northridge L 84 - 86 25% -0  42% 6 - 23 2 - 17 D+ -6 D+ -3 C F B+ C- -3 B+ F A-
 Sat, Mar 7 230 @Cal Poly L 81 - 91 17%
Totals 6 - 24 2 - 18 -11 D -5 F D- F+ D -5 F+ B- B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D+ D+ F+ D- 37% 64% 29% F+ F+ C D+ C- D B+ B- B+ D C F+ D D 39% 19% 41% C- D+ F+ C- D- C+ D- C D-
1.01 55% 34% 29% -5 -2 0.89 30% 1.0 .29 19% .36 74% .27 1.16 59% 44% 37% +3 0 1.09 37% 1.1 .39 17% .37 73% .26
Nov
3		 California F F D D D 51% 33% 16% D D- B- F F F A+ C- A+ D+ F F A+ F+ 47% 14% 39% F F F B F A F B+ D-
0.82 43% 33% 29% -10 -1 0.80 31% 0.5 .14 23% .54 63% .34 1.19 75% 86% 25% +9 +2 1.24 40% 1.0 .40 19% .42 72% .30
Nov
11		 Western Illinois D- D- D- C+ F+ 46% 19% 35% C- F+ B- F F+ F B+ A A B- A D F F 34% 34% 32% B D- F A+ C+ A+ F+ A+ C-
1.10 55% 33% 35% -2 +1 1.00 38% 0.8 .29 19% .37 80% .30 0.87 40% 40% 43% -1 -2 0.95 35% 0.6 .22 25% .36 56% .20
Nov
14		 Mississippi D+ C+ B- F C 41% 39% 20% D C- B- D+ C+ D- A+ F+ A+ F A+ F A+ A 44% 25% 31% F B+ F A D- F F C F
0.96 56% 41% 22% -3 -2 0.91 32% 1.0 .32 21% .51 64% .32 1.31 48% 67% 20% -4 0 0.94 47% 0.9 .42 6% .43 76% .33
Nov
17		 Portland St. B F B- A- C- 34% 32% 34% F+ D+ C+ A+ A+ F A+ B+ A+ F F+ A+ F F 55% 11% 34% F F F+ F F C+ F B F
1.08 38% 40% 38% -5 -2 0.89 30% 1.9 .58 23% .51 79% .40 1.26 65% 20% 56% +13 +3 1.34 37% 1.4 .52 20% .44 65% .29
Nov
22		 Mississippi Valley D C- F F F 32% 25% 43% D- F C+ B B- A- A+ D- A+ D C+ F A+ D- 35% 46% 19% C+ D C+ B+ B- F F A F
1.15 59% 31% 26% -7 -1 0.87 38% 1.4 .52 13% .65 69% .45 0.94 53% 50% 22% 0 -3 0.96 22% 0.8 .16 16% .46 62% .29
Nov
25		 Florida St. F C- F F F 49% 31% 20% C F B+ B B+ F A+ F A+ B C- F A+ A- 44% 2% 54% F B F+ D+ F+ A+ F F+ F
0.73 55% 21% 11% -14 -1 0.73 36% 1.0 .36 35% .49 62% .30 1.10 63% 100% 24% -5 +3 0.98 38% 1.2 .46 21% .45 79% .36
Nov
30		 Fresno St. B- B A+ F C- 34% 38% 28% F D D- D+ D A A+ A+ A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 10% 49% F A+ F F F A D- D F+
1.07 67% 50% 7% -4 -3 0.89 23% 1.0 .23 14% .39 96% .38 1.00 57% 0% 16% -17 +2 0.71 44% 1.3 .58 22% .34 79% .27
Dec
4		 Cal St. Northridge F F F F F 31% 31% 38% F+ F A B- A F A+ B A+ D C- F C+ D- 57% 8% 35% F F+ F D- F C F A+ D+
0.89 40% 27% 22% -16 -2 0.67 38% 1.2 .45 24% .43 79% .34 1.17 59% 75% 33% +3 +3 1.14 41% 1.1 .46 18% .41 52% .21
Dec
6		 UC Santa Barbara B- C C A+ A+ 37% 22% 41% C- A F F F C A+ D+ A+ F F F F F 38% 13% 48% D F F F+ F D- F D+ F
1.15 59% 40% 53% +12 0 1.26 17% 0.4 .07 16% .61 70% .43 1.50 70% 57% 44% +14 +1 1.33 47% 1.2 .56 15% .55 79% .44
Dec
11		 North Dakota St. F C F F F 35% 38% 27% F F B+ C+ B D- A+ A- A+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 17% 40% F+ A+ F F F B+ F C+ F
0.94 61% 25% 29% -6 -3 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 22% .37 81% .30 1.09 45% 25% 21% -16 +1 0.72 49% 1.3 .65 19% .62 70% .44
Dec
13		 Pepperdine F F C- F F 40% 24% 36% D- F B+ F F F A+ A+ A+ C- D F F+ F 44% 19% 38% D- F F+ A+ A+ A- F+ A D
0.92 44% 36% 19% -14 0 0.73 40% 0.4 .18 22% .48 96% .46 1.04 62% 56% 39% +8 +1 1.19 35% 0.2 .06 22% .36 68% .25
Dec
23		 Idaho F+ B B+ C- B- 27% 33% 40% D- C+ D+ B- C- F F F F B+ C+ C+ A+ A 31% 24% 45% A A C C C C+ C F D+
0.98 64% 47% 33% +4 -2 1.06 23% 1.1 .26 20% .15 38% .06 0.96 53% 33% 27% -7 -1 0.86 29% 1.0 .29 17% .28 80% .22
Jan
1		 UC Irvine B+ D+ F+ A+ B- 40% 40% 19% F C A+ D B+ A B A- A- F C+ C F F 29% 47% 24% A+ F C- F F A- F C F
1.10 48% 30% 45% -4 -2 0.89 47% 0.9 .40 13% .30 78% .23 1.16 54% 38% 64% +10 -4 1.13 32% 1.6 .50 22% .46 68% .31
Jan
3		 UC Davis B- D C C- D 36% 25% 40% D- D C+ A- B+ A A+ A+ A+ C A D+ F C- 34% 11% 55% D- D+ F+ D F+ B- F C F
1.13 53% 38% 33% -2 -1 0.96 33% 1.2 .39 14% .42 85% .36 1.10 47% 40% 42% +3 +1 1.09 33% 1.1 .36 20% .62 75% .47
Jan
8		 UC Riverside F C F A+ F 24% 57% 18% F F A B+ A+ F C+ B B B- A+ F+ F D+ 42% 18% 40% C- D+ B A+ A A C A+ B
0.96 58% 18% 44% -9 -6 0.73 41% 1.1 .46 21% .36 75% .27 0.94 33% 44% 50% 0 +1 1.04 24% 0.6 .13 23% .30 63% .19
Jan
10		 Long Beach St. D- A F C D+ 45% 26% 28% C- D+ D- F F D+ D A+ C+ C- C+ B- F D- 35% 31% 33% C D B- F F+ B+ F D+ F
0.99 71% 14% 33% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.6 .14 19% .32 85% .28 1.07 59% 33% 44% +4 -2 1.06 23% 1.6 .37 21% .49 76% .37
Jan
15		 UC Santa Barbara C D+ A F F+ 39% 39% 22% F F B+ A+ A A- B C- B- F+ C F D D+ 24% 14% 62% C+ D+ D A+ B C- F D+ F
1.12 56% 50% 10% -4 -2 0.89 33% 1.4 .45 13% .39 71% .28 1.21 60% 50% 38% +6 0 1.14 34% 0.8 .28 18% .57 79% .45
Jan
17		 UC San Diego F F F C D- 29% 29% 43% F+ D- B- F F F A+ C A+ F+ A- A+ F C+ 43% 14% 43% C C+ B- F D- F D- C- D-
0.87 43% 29% 33% -7 -2 0.84 31% 0.4 .12 21% .48 70% .34 1.17 50% 25% 42% 0 +1 1.04 23% 1.4 .33 11% .32 70% .22
Jan
22		 Hawaii D F D- F+ F 43% 36% 21% F+ F F A- F A+ A+ B- A+ F F A- A+ B+ 38% 14% 48% C+ B F F F D+ F F+ F
0.92 39% 32% 27% -13 -2 0.74 12% 1.2 .15 9% .55 72% .40 1.27 74% 29% 21% -5 +1 0.94 45% 1.5 .68 17% .53 79% .42
Jan
29		 Cal Poly F+ F A B- C 31% 29% 40% F D+ B B+ A- F D- F F F F A+ F F 49% 2% 49% F F F A D- A- D F F
1.02 47% 50% 36% +1 -2 1.02 37% 1.2 .45 22% .23 50% .12 1.34 78% 0% 41% +14 +3 1.36 48% 0.8 .38 24% .34 100% .34
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 UC Davis D+ D- B A+ C+ 39% 30% 30% F C- D+ A+ B- D- B+ D+ B- D- C+ D- B+ B- 29% 29% 42% A B D F F F+ F D- F
1.03 50% 43% 43% +2 -1 1.04 28% 1.3 .34 22% .37 70% .26 1.15 57% 43% 30% -1 -2 0.96 31% 1.4 .44 14% .52 81% .42
Feb
5		 UC Irvine D- F C- F F+ 28% 54% 18% F F B- B+ B+ F B A+ A+ C- C F+ A+ B 57% 20% 23% F C+ F A+ A- F F A+ F
0.85 29% 37% 22% -12 -5 0.68 37% 1.1 .39 26% .30 94% .28 1.07 56% 45% 15% -6 +1 0.93 40% 0.6 .23 10% .47 58% .27
Feb
7		 Cal St. Fullerton F D- D- F F 42% 17% 40% C+ F B- F+ C- D- A+ F C+ C A+ F F D 35% 15% 50% D+ D F+ A+ A- C- D- D+ D-
0.89 55% 33% 19% -11 +1 0.81 33% 0.9 .28 22% .41 54% .22 1.11 44% 63% 42% +5 0 1.13 31% 0.5 .15 15% .36 74% .27
Feb
12		 Hawaii C- A- A+ F A 25% 55% 20% F C+ C- F+ D+ C+ C+ A- B- F F A+ D F+ 30% 30% 40% A+ D+ F F F C- F D- F
1.02 64% 53% 9% +2 -5 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 15% .33 75% .24 1.23 86% 21% 37% +5 -2 1.09 38% 1.3 .50 18% .54 78% .42
Feb
19		 UC Riverside F F F F F 44% 40% 15% F F F+ F F D A A+ A+ F C A+ F F 47% 18% 35% D F D- A+ A- D- D F F
0.84 48% 19% 25% -14 -2 0.69 23% 0.6 .14 17% .42 85% .36 1.21 58% 20% 63% +12 +1 1.27 32% 0.5 .16 16% .34 86% .29
Feb
21		 Cal St. Fullerton D+ A+ F+ F D 25% 39% 36% F F+ C- B- C A A- A+ A+ F F D- F F 15% 29% 56% A+ F A- F B- C- D+ B+ C
1.09 86% 32% 25% 0 -3 0.95 28% 1.1 .30 14% .36 83% .30 1.20 75% 44% 48% +16 -3 1.29 19% 1.2 .22 15% .34 67% .22
Feb
26		 UC San Diego C A+ A+ F B- 30% 28% 41% D- C F A F D A+ A A+ D- B F B- B- 39% 18% 43% B B- F F F C+ F C F
1.01 79% 54% 16% -1 -2 0.98 13% 1.3 .17 18% .55 78% .43 1.18 53% 50% 32% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.8 .61 17% .59 69% .40
Feb
28		 Long Beach St. C+ A D D- C+ 40% 38% 22% F C- F+ A+ C A A+ F+ A+ F F C F F 40% 31% 29% D+ F B- A+ A+ A F A D
1.17 72% 35% 30% +3 -2 1.04 21% 1.7 .36 12% .67 68% .46 1.19 81% 38% 60% +20 -1 1.40 23% 0.3 .08 23% .35 65% .23
Mar
5		 Cal St. Northridge D+ B- F B C 39% 25% 36% C- C D+ F F B+ C+ F D+ C- B F A+ B+ 38% 22% 40% A- B+ F F F A- C+ F D
1.06 63% 27% 36% 0 0 1.02 24% 0.8 .19 13% .32 64% .20 1.08 52% 46% 25% -6 0 0.90 43% 1.4 .60 21% .29 78% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 82.7 17.3 100.0 11th
Total 82.7 17.3 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17 17.3% 17.3
2-18 82.7% 82.7
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 17.3%
Lose Out 82.7%