Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -11.5 332
Results Rating -10.6 327
Consistency 0.12 32
Pace 73.9 45
Improvement -2.2 268

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 313 F+ C- D B+ F+
Defense D- 330 D+ D- C+ D- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 234 D+ 54% 277 -2.4 273
2 Pt. Jumpers 65% 5 D+ 35% 294 +4.0 27
Three Pointers 29% 356 F+ 29% 348 -8.2 358
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ -1.8 350 D- -4.9 333
1st FG Attempt F+ 0.89 348
Second Chance C 30.5% 175 D+ 0.96 283 C- 0.29 216
Opponents' Steals D 10.8% 302
Other Turnovers D+ 8.0% 288
Turnovers D 18.8% 312
Freethrows B+ 0.36 29 C+ 74% 126 B+ 0.26 33
Total Offense D -5.6 313

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D 40% 304 C- 11.7% 222
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 30% 102 D+ 6.7% 290
Three Pointers C- 81% 253 D+ 1.3% 302
Total D- 46% 340 D 7.0% 322


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 144 C- 59% 210 +1.1 219
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 217 D- 44% 341 +0.6 235
Three Pointers 41% 177 D 37% 301 +1.6 268
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 218 D +2.9 297
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.09 289
Second Chance F 37.0% 357 C- 1.06 240 D- 0.39 343
Turnovers from Steals C+ 9.8% 155
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 164
Turnovers C+ 17.1% 146
Freethrows D- 0.36 332 C 73% 204 D- 0.26 326
Total Defense D- -5.9 330

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 185 B- 13.7% 70
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 248 B+ 8.4% 36
Three Pointers D 88% 312 C 1.0% 129
Total C- 58% 232 B 7.5% 50

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 148 16.0 14
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 139 0.21 316
Consistency 0.10 40 0.11 58
Improvement -0.1 191 -2.2 291

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 333 332 332
Results Rating Rank 329 327 326
Conference Record 2 - 18 2 - 18 2 - 18
Conference Finish 11 11 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 7
Quad 32 - 93 - 16
Quad 43 - 86 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 72 @California L 60 - 87 3% -14  0% 0 - 1 F+ -16 F -11 D F F D+ -4 F F A
 Tue, Nov 11 364 Western Illinois W 74 - 58 84% +7  89% 1 - 1 D+ -6 D- -8 F+ F+ F B- +2 D- C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 76 @Mississippi L 60 - 82 3% -11  2% 1 - 2 D -11 D+ -2 C- C+ D F -12 B+ D- F
 Mon, Nov 17 150 @Portland St. L 80 - 93 9% -7  0% 1 - 3 D -10 B +6 D+ A+ F F -15 F F B-
 Sat, Nov 22 365 Mississippi Valley W 86 - 70 90% +10  73% 2 - 3 D -10 D -5 F B- B+ D -5 D- B- F
 Tue, Nov 25 70 @Florida St. L 59 - 89 3% -13  12% 2 - 4 F -19 F -20 F B+ F B+ +5 B F+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 134 @Fresno St. W 76 - 71 7% -4  13% 3 - 4 B +10 B- +4 D D A B+ +6 A+ F A
 Thu, Dec 4 182 @Cal St. Northridge L 66 - 87 11% -7  17% 3 - 5 0 - 1 F -19 F -12 F A F D- -7 F+ F C
 Sat, Dec 6 140 @UC Santa Barbara L 84 - 109 8% -14  2% 3 - 6 0 - 2 F -21 B- +5 A F C F -25 F F F+
 Thu, Dec 11 126 North Dakota St. L 69 - 80 15% -6  14% 3 - 7 D- -12 F+ -10 F B F+ C -1 A+ F B+
 Sat, Dec 13 272 Pepperdine L 62 - 70 41% -4  12% 3 - 8 F+ -17 F -16 F F F C- -2 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 23 170 Idaho W 64 - 63 22% +2  72% 4 - 8 C- -3 F+ -8 C+ C- F B+ +6 A C C+
 Thu, Jan 1 112 UC Irvine L 77 - 81 13% -6  0% 4 - 9 0 - 3 C- -4 B+ +8 C B+ A F -11 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 3 175 @UC Davis W 81 - 79 11% -2  27% 5 - 9 1 - 3 C+ +4 B- +5 D B A+ C -1 D+ F B-
 Thu, Jan 8 274 UC Riverside W 67 - 66 41% +0  53% 6 - 9 2 - 3 D -8 F -12 F A+ F B- +3 D+ A A
 Sat, Jan 10 256 @Long Beach St. L 75 - 81 19% -5  23% 6 - 10 2 - 4 D -8 D- -6 D+ F D C -1 D F+ B+
 Thu, Jan 15 140 UC Santa Barbara L 69 - 75 18% -9  0% 6 - 11 2 - 5 D+ -8 C -0 F+ A B+ F+ -9 D+ B C-
 Sat, Jan 17 130 UC San Diego L 62 - 83 16% -13  6% 6 - 12 2 - 6 F -22 F -12 D- F F F+ -9 C+ D- F
 Thu, Jan 22 125 @Hawaii L 71 - 98 6% -18  0% 6 - 13 2 - 7 F -21 D -5 F F A+ F -13 B F D+
 Thu, Jan 29 221 Cal Poly L 79 - 104 31% -15  15% 6 - 14 2 - 8 F -31 F+ -9 D+ A- F F -20 F D- A
 Sat, Jan 31 175 UC Davis L 72 - 80 23% -0  36% 6 - 15 2 - 9 D- -12 D+ -4 C- C+ D D- -8 B F F+
 Thu, Feb 5 112 @UC Irvine L 62 - 78 6% -5  26% 6 - 16 2 - 10 D -10 D- -7 F B+ F C- -2 C+ A- F
 Sat, Feb 7 184 @Cal St. Fullerton L 66 - 82 11% -16  0% 6 - 17 2 - 11 D- -14 F -13 F C- D- C -1 D A- C-
 Thu, Feb 12 125 Hawaii L 74 - 89 15% -10  9% 6 - 18 2 - 12 F+ -15 C- -1 C+ D C+ F -14 D+ F C-
 Thu, Feb 19 274 @UC Riverside L 65 - 93 22% -15  1% 6 - 19 2 - 13 F -31 F -17 F F D F -12 F A- D-
 Sat, Feb 21 184 Cal St. Fullerton L 80 - 88 25% +2  63% 6 - 20 2 - 14 D- -12 C- -2 F+ C A F -10 F B- C-
 Thu, Feb 26 130 @UC San Diego L 72 - 84 7% -11  1% 6 - 21 2 - 15 D+ -7 C +0 C F D D- -7 B- F C+
 Sat, Feb 28 256 Long Beach St. L 87 - 88 38% -3  15% 6 - 22 2 - 16 D -9 C+ +3 C C+ A F -12 F A+ A
 Thu, Mar 5 182 Cal St. Northridge L 84 - 86 24% -0  42% 6 - 23 2 - 17 D+ -6 D+ -3 C F B+ D+ -3 B+ F A-
 Sat, Mar 7 221 @Cal Poly L 76 - 108 15% -18  10% 6 - 24 2 - 18 F -32 F -13 F+ C- F F -15 D- F+ F
Totals 6 - 24 2 - 18 -12 D -6 F D- F+ D- -6 F+ C+ B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D+ D+ F+ D- 37% 65% 29% F+ F+ C D+ C- D B+ C+ B+ D- C- D- D D 40% 19% 41% C- D+ F C- D- C+ D- C D-
1.01 54% 35% 29% -5 -2 0.89 30% 1.0 .29 19% .36 74% .26 1.17 59% 44% 37% +3 0 1.09 37% 1.1 .39 17% .36 73% .26
Nov
3		 California F F D+ D D 51% 33% 16% D+ D B- F F F A+ D+ A+ D+ F F A+ F+ 47% 14% 39% F F F B- F A F A- D-
0.82 43% 33% 29% -10 -1 0.80 31% 0.5 .14 23% .54 63% .34 1.19 75% 86% 25% +9 +2 1.24 40% 1.0 .40 19% .42 72% .30
Nov
11		 Western Illinois D- D- D- C+ F+ 46% 19% 35% C- F+ B- F F+ F B+ A A B- A D F F 34% 34% 32% B D- F A+ C+ A+ F+ A+ C
1.10 55% 33% 35% -2 +1 1.00 38% 0.8 .29 19% .37 80% .30 0.87 40% 40% 43% -1 -2 0.95 35% 0.6 .22 25% .36 56% .20
Nov
14		 Mississippi D+ C+ B- F C 41% 39% 20% D C- B- D+ C+ D A+ D- A+ F A+ F A+ A 44% 25% 31% F B+ F A D- F F C F
0.96 56% 41% 22% -3 -2 0.91 32% 1.0 .32 21% .51 64% .32 1.31 48% 67% 20% -4 0 0.94 47% 0.9 .42 6% .43 76% .33
Nov
17		 Portland St. B F B- A- C- 34% 32% 34% F+ D+ C+ A+ A+ F A+ B+ A+ F F+ A+ F F 55% 11% 34% F F F F F B- F B F
1.08 38% 40% 38% -5 -2 0.89 30% 1.9 .58 23% .51 79% .40 1.26 65% 20% 56% +13 +3 1.34 37% 1.4 .52 20% .44 65% .29
Nov
22		 Mississippi Valley D C- F+ F F 32% 25% 43% D- F C+ B B- B+ A+ D- A+ D C+ F A+ F+ 35% 46% 19% C+ D- B- B+ B- F F A F
1.15 59% 31% 26% -7 -1 0.87 38% 1.4 .52 13% .65 69% .45 0.94 53% 50% 22% 0 -3 0.96 22% 0.8 .16 16% .46 62% .29
Nov
25		 Florida St. F C- F F F 49% 31% 20% C F B+ B+ B+ F A+ F A+ B+ C- F A+ A- 44% 2% 54% F B F+ C- F+ A+ F F+ F
0.73 55% 21% 11% -14 -1 0.73 36% 1.0 .36 35% .49 62% .30 1.10 63% 100% 24% -5 +3 0.98 38% 1.2 .46 21% .45 79% .36
Nov
30		 Fresno St. B- B A+ F D+ 34% 38% 28% F D D- C- D A A+ A+ A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 10% 49% F A+ F F F A D- D F+
1.07 67% 50% 7% -4 -3 0.89 23% 1.0 .23 14% .39 96% .38 1.00 57% 0% 16% -17 +2 0.71 44% 1.3 .58 22% .34 79% .27
Dec
4		 Cal St. Northridge F F F F F 31% 31% 38% F+ F A C+ A F A+ B+ A+ D- C- F C D- 57% 8% 35% F F+ F D- F C F A+ C-
0.89 40% 27% 22% -16 -2 0.67 38% 1.2 .45 24% .43 79% .34 1.17 59% 75% 33% +3 +3 1.14 41% 1.1 .46 18% .41 52% .21
Dec
6		 UC Santa Barbara B- C- C+ A+ A+ 37% 22% 41% C- A F F F C A+ D+ A+ F F F F F 38% 13% 48% D F F F+ F F+ F D+ F
1.15 59% 40% 53% +12 0 1.26 17% 0.4 .07 16% .61 70% .43 1.50 70% 57% 44% +14 +1 1.33 47% 1.2 .56 15% .55 79% .44
Dec
11		 North Dakota St. F+ C F F+ F 35% 38% 27% F F B+ C+ B F+ A+ B+ A+ C A A+ A+ A+ 43% 17% 40% F+ A+ F F F B+ F C+ F
0.94 61% 25% 29% -6 -3 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 22% .37 81% .30 1.09 45% 25% 21% -16 +1 0.72 49% 1.3 .65 19% .62 70% .44
Dec
13		 Pepperdine F F C- F F 40% 24% 36% D- F B+ F F F A+ A+ A+ C- D F F+ F 44% 19% 38% D- F F+ A+ A+ A- F+ A D
0.92 44% 36% 19% -14 0 0.73 40% 0.4 .18 22% .48 96% .46 1.04 62% 56% 39% +8 +1 1.19 35% 0.2 .06 22% .36 68% .25
Dec
23		 Idaho F+ B+ A- C- B 27% 33% 40% D- C+ D+ B C- F F F F B+ B- C+ A A 31% 24% 45% A- A C C C C+ C F D+
0.98 64% 47% 33% +4 -2 1.06 23% 1.1 .26 20% .15 38% .06 0.96 53% 33% 27% -7 -1 0.86 29% 1.0 .29 17% .28 80% .22
Jan
1		 UC Irvine B+ D+ F+ A+ C+ 40% 40% 19% F+ C A+ D B+ A B+ A- A- F C+ C F F 29% 47% 24% A+ F C- F F A- F C F
1.10 48% 30% 45% -4 -2 0.89 47% 0.9 .40 13% .30 78% .23 1.16 54% 38% 64% +10 -4 1.13 32% 1.6 .50 22% .46 68% .31
Jan
3		 UC Davis B- D C C- D 36% 25% 40% D- D C+ A- B A+ A+ A+ A+ C A D+ F C- 34% 11% 55% D- D+ F D F B- F C F
1.13 53% 38% 33% -2 -1 0.96 33% 1.2 .39 14% .42 85% .36 1.10 47% 40% 42% +3 +1 1.09 33% 1.1 .36 20% .62 75% .47
Jan
8		 UC Riverside F C F A+ F 24% 57% 18% F F A B+ A+ F C+ B B B- A+ F+ F D+ 42% 18% 40% C- D+ B A+ A A C A+ B
0.96 58% 18% 44% -9 -6 0.73 41% 1.1 .46 21% .36 75% .27 0.94 33% 44% 50% 0 +1 1.04 24% 0.6 .13 23% .30 63% .19
Jan
10		 Long Beach St. D- A F C D+ 45% 26% 28% C- D+ D- F F D D+ A+ C+ C C+ B- F D 35% 31% 33% C D B- F F+ B+ F D+ F
0.99 71% 14% 33% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.6 .14 19% .32 85% .28 1.07 59% 33% 44% +4 -2 1.06 23% 1.6 .37 21% .49 76% .37
Jan
15		 UC Santa Barbara C D+ A F D- 39% 39% 22% F F+ B+ A+ A B+ B C- B- F+ C F D D+ 24% 14% 62% C+ D+ D A+ B C- F D+ F
1.12 56% 50% 10% -4 -2 0.89 33% 1.4 .45 13% .39 71% .28 1.21 60% 50% 38% +6 0 1.14 34% 0.8 .28 18% .57 79% .45
Jan
17		 UC San Diego F F F C D- 29% 29% 43% F+ D- B- F F F A+ C A+ F+ A- A+ F C+ 43% 14% 43% C C+ B- F D- F D- C- D-
0.87 43% 29% 33% -7 -2 0.84 31% 0.4 .12 21% .48 70% .34 1.17 50% 25% 42% 0 +1 1.04 23% 1.4 .33 11% .32 70% .22
Jan
22		 Hawaii D F D- F+ F 43% 36% 21% F+ F F B+ F A+ A+ B- A+ F F A- A+ B+ 38% 14% 48% C+ B F F F D+ F F+ F
0.92 39% 32% 27% -13 -2 0.74 12% 1.2 .15 9% .55 72% .40 1.27 74% 29% 21% -5 +1 0.94 45% 1.5 .68 17% .53 79% .42
Jan
29		 Cal Poly F+ F A B- C 31% 29% 40% F D+ B B+ A- F D- F F F F A+ F F 49% 2% 49% F F F A D- A D F F
1.02 47% 50% 36% +1 -2 1.02 37% 1.2 .45 22% .23 50% .12 1.34 78% 0% 41% +14 +3 1.36 48% 0.8 .38 24% .34 100% .34
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 UC Davis D+ D- B A+ C+ 39% 30% 30% F C- D+ A+ C+ D B D+ B- D- C+ D- B+ B- 29% 29% 42% A B D- F F F+ F D- F
1.03 50% 43% 43% +2 -1 1.04 28% 1.3 .34 22% .37 70% .26 1.15 57% 43% 30% -1 -2 0.96 31% 1.4 .44 14% .52 81% .42
Feb
5		 UC Irvine D- F C- F F+ 28% 54% 18% F F B- B+ B+ F B+ A+ A+ C- C F+ A+ B 57% 20% 23% F C+ F A+ A- F F A+ F
0.85 29% 37% 22% -12 -5 0.68 37% 1.1 .39 26% .30 94% .28 1.07 56% 45% 15% -6 +1 0.93 40% 0.6 .23 10% .47 58% .27
Feb
7		 Cal St. Fullerton F D- D- F F 42% 17% 40% C+ F B- F+ C- D- A+ F C C A+ F F D 35% 15% 50% D+ D F+ A+ A- C- D- D+ D-
0.89 55% 33% 19% -11 +1 0.81 33% 0.9 .28 22% .41 54% .22 1.11 44% 63% 42% +5 0 1.13 31% 0.5 .15 15% .36 74% .27
Feb
12		 Hawaii C- A- A+ F A- 25% 55% 20% F C+ C- F+ D C+ C+ A- B- F F A+ D- F+ 30% 30% 40% A+ D+ F F F C- F D- F
1.02 64% 53% 9% +2 -5 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 15% .33 75% .24 1.23 86% 21% 37% +5 -2 1.09 38% 1.3 .50 18% .54 78% .42
Feb
19		 UC Riverside F F F F F 44% 40% 15% F F F+ F F D A A+ A+ F C A+ F F 47% 18% 35% D F D- A+ A- D- D F F
0.84 48% 19% 25% -14 -2 0.69 23% 0.6 .14 17% .42 85% .36 1.21 58% 20% 63% +12 +1 1.27 32% 0.5 .16 16% .34 86% .29
Feb
21		 Cal St. Fullerton C- A+ F+ F D 25% 39% 36% F F+ C- B C A A- A+ A F F D- F F 15% 29% 56% A+ F A- F B- C- D+ B+ C
1.09 86% 32% 25% 0 -3 0.95 28% 1.1 .30 14% .36 83% .30 1.20 75% 44% 48% +16 -3 1.29 19% 1.2 .22 15% .34 67% .22
Feb
26		 UC San Diego C A+ A+ F B- 30% 28% 41% D- C F A F D A+ A A+ D- B F B- B- 39% 18% 43% B B- F F F C+ F C F
1.01 79% 54% 16% -1 -2 0.98 13% 1.3 .17 18% .55 78% .43 1.18 53% 50% 32% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.8 .61 17% .59 69% .40
Feb
28		 Long Beach St. C+ A D D- C+ 40% 38% 22% F C D- A+ C+ A A+ F+ A+ F F C F F 40% 31% 29% D+ F B- A+ A+ A F A D+
1.17 72% 35% 30% +3 -2 1.04 21% 1.7 .36 12% .67 68% .46 1.19 81% 38% 60% +20 -1 1.40 23% 0.3 .08 23% .35 65% .23
Mar
5		 Cal St. Northridge D+ B F B- C 39% 25% 36% C- C D+ F F B+ C+ F D+ D+ B F A+ B+ 38% 22% 40% A- B+ F F F A- C+ F D+
1.06 63% 27% 36% 0 0 1.02 24% 0.8 .19 13% .32 64% .20 1.08 52% 46% 25% -6 0 0.90 43% 1.4 .60 21% .29 78% .22
Mar
7		 Cal Poly F D- B- F+ D- 38% 25% 38% D F+ C- C C- F B- F C- F F A+ C- F+ 44% 6% 50% D+ D- F C F+ F D+ C D+
0.92 52% 43% 29% -4 -1 0.93 30% 1.1 .33 22% .31 65% .20 1.31 70% 0% 35% +4 +2 1.15 39% 1.0 .39 11% .33 79% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 100.0 100.0 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18 100.0% 100.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%