Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.2 #290
Expected Predictive Rating -4.9 #242
Pace 72.1 #96
Improvement +3.4 #28

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #279 F B+ C+ D F
Defense #285 D+ D- F C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #170 1.05 #301 -2.0 #250
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #12 0.71 #226 +3.8 #32
Three Pointers 29% #358 0.86 #326 -8.3 #357
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #338 -6.5 #338
Freethrows 20.6 #41 74% #143 15.2 #41
Second Chance 33.4% #104 1.02 #205 0.34 #132
Turnovers 18.9% #303
Total Offense -3.8 #279

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #77 1.18 #204 -2.9 #273
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #233 0.97 #358 -1.3 #273
Three Pointers 39% #241 0.99 #157 +1.6 #125
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #267 -2.6 #264
Freethrows 22.0 #343 68% #33 14.9 #46
Second Chance 38.5% #354 1.10 #251 0.42 #347
Turnovers 17.4% #133
Total Defense -3.4 #285

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.9% #334 1.2% #274
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.2% #326 3.9% #253
Possession Length 17.4 #180 16.4 #56
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #163 0.21 #286
Improvement +1.8 #68 +1.6 #82

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.2 15.2
.500 or above 3.0% 4.1% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 9.8% 13.4% 3.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 31.4% 21.5% 48.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Home) - 64.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 33 - 83 - 13
Quad 47 - 611 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 78 @California L 60-87 6%     -14.0   0 - 1 -16.6 -10.4 -5.1
  Tue, Nov 11 357 Western Illinois W 74-58 82%     7.2   1 - 1 -1.0 -2.2 +2.0
  Fri, Nov 14 69 @Mississippi L 60-82 5%     -11.3   1 - 2 -10.8 +1.0 -14.4
  Mon, Nov 17 154 @Portland St. L 80-93 17%     -7.0   1 - 3 -10.0 +6.7 -15.9
  Sat, Nov 22 365 Mississippi Valley W 86-70 96%     11.6   2 - 3 -10.9 -2.6 -9.3
  Tue, Nov 25 108 @Florida St. L 59-89 9%     -13.2   2 - 4 -22.6 -19.1 +0.5
  Sun, Nov 30 155 @Fresno St. W 76-71 17%     -3.9   3 - 4 +8.0 +5.5 +2.4
  Thu, Dec 4 201 @Cal St. Northridge L 66-87 23%     -6.7   3 - 5 0 - 1 -20.5 -10.6 -8.7
  Sat, Dec 6 171 @UC Santa Barbara L 84-109 19%     -14.0   3 - 6 0 - 2 -22.9 +6.8 -28.7
  Thu, Dec 11 152 North Dakota St. L 69-80 34%     -6.0   3 - 7 -13.8 -8.1 -5.3
  Sat, Dec 13 267 Pepperdine L 62-70 57%     -3.8   3 - 8 -17.0 -10.4 -6.9
  Tue, Dec 23 181 Idaho W 64-63 39%     1.5   4 - 8 -3.4 -7.9 +4.6
  Thu, Jan 1 126 UC Irvine L 77-81 27%     -6.4   4 - 9 0 - 3 -4.8 +7.6 -12.4
  Sat, Jan 3 185 @UC Davis W 81-79 21%     -1.6   5 - 9 1 - 3 +3.4 +6.5 -3.2
  Thu, Jan 8 297 UC Riverside W 78-74 64%    
  Sat, Jan 10 259 @Long Beach St. L 73-77 34%    
  Thu, Jan 15 171 UC Santa Barbara L 73-76 38%    
  Sat, Jan 17 89 UC San Diego L 70-81 16%    
  Fri, Jan 23 98 @Hawaii L 64-80 7%    
  Thu, Jan 29 250 Cal Poly W 83-82 54%    
  Sat, Jan 31 185 UC Davis L 75-78 41%    
  Thu, Feb 5 126 @UC Irvine L 66-78 12%    
  Sat, Feb 7 255 @Cal St. Fullerton L 80-85 33%    
  Thu, Feb 12 98 Hawaii L 67-77 19%    
  Thu, Feb 19 297 @UC Riverside L 75-77 41%    
  Sat, Feb 21 255 Cal St. Fullerton W 83-82 54%    
  Thu, Feb 26 89 @UC San Diego L 67-84 7%    
  Sat, Feb 28 259 Long Beach St. W 76-74 55%    
  Thu, Mar 5 201 Cal St. Northridge L 80-82 44%    
  Sat, Mar 7 250 @Cal Poly L 80-85 33%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 3.0 4th
5th 0.3 1.9 2.8 1.0 0.1 6.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.5 4.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.2 2.9 6.0 2.7 0.3 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.2 2.6 7.2 3.7 0.4 0.0 14.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.5 7.7 5.2 0.7 0.0 16.3 9th
10th 0.4 3.4 7.9 6.1 0.9 0.1 18.7 10th
11th 0.4 1.9 5.3 7.2 4.5 0.9 0.0 20.1 11th
Total 0.4 1.9 5.8 10.8 15.1 17.4 16.5 13.2 9.2 5.6 2.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 20.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 14.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.4% 2.5% 2.5% 14.0 0.0 0.4
12-8 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
11-9 2.7% 1.7% 1.7% 15.0 0.0 2.7
10-10 5.6% 0.3% 0.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 5.6
9-11 9.2% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 9.2
8-12 13.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.2
7-13 16.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.5
6-14 17.4% 17.4
5-15 15.1% 15.1
4-16 10.8% 10.8
3-17 5.8% 5.8
2-18 1.9% 1.9
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%