Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -11.3 332
Results Rating -9.7 317
Consistency 0.12 34
Pace 72.9 65
Improvement -2.8 291

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 320 F+ C- D B+ F+
Defense D 320 D+ D- C D- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 245 D+ 53% 290 -3.0 285
2 Pt. Jumpers 65% 4 D+ 35% 283 +4.1 32
Three Pointers 29% 356 F+ 29% 350 -8.3 358
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ -1.9 351 D- -5.3 345
1st FG Attempt F+ 0.88 353
Second Chance C+ 31.1% 165 D+ 0.96 285 C- 0.30 206
Opponents' Steals D 10.8% 304
Other Turnovers D 8.3% 307
Turnovers D 19.1% 316
Freethrows B+ 0.35 36 B- 75% 88 B+ 0.27 32
Total Offense D -5.9 320

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 38% 319 D+ 12.5% 274
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 32% 81 D+ 6.5% 276
Three Pointers C- 81% 241 C- 1.2% 271
Total D- 46% 345 D 7.1% 325

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 155 C 58% 182 +0.7 207
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 219 D- 44% 343 +0.6 233
Three Pointers 41% 165 D+ 36% 282 +1.5 263
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 217 D+ +2.4 276
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 270
Second Chance F 37.0% 357 C- 1.07 239 D- 0.40 346
Turnovers from Steals C 9.6% 178
Other Turnovers C+ 7.6% 135
Turnovers C 17.2% 153
Freethrows D- 0.37 335 C 73% 205 D- 0.27 333
Total Defense D -5.4 320

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 216 B- 14.2% 63
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 264 A- 9.1% 24
Three Pointers D 89% 330 C 0.9% 159
Total D+ 59% 255 B 7.7% 42

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 175 16.1 19
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 164 0.21 316
Consistency 0.10 44 0.11 84
Improvement -0.8 219 -2.1 291

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 343 333 320
Results Rating Rank 335 314 297
Conference Record 2 - 18 3 - 17 4 - 16
Conference Finish 11 11 9
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 99% 97% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Long Beach St. (Home) - 40.2% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 50 - 6
Quad 32 - 102 - 16
Quad 44 - 77 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 67 @California L 60 - 87 3% -14  0% 0 - 1 F+ -15 F -12 D- F F C- -2 F+ F A
 Tue, Nov 11 363 Western Illinois W 74 - 58 83% +7  89% 1 - 1 D+ -5 D- -7 F+ F+ F B- +2 D- C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 79 @Mississippi L 60 - 82 3% -11  2% 1 - 2 D- -12 D+ -3 C- C+ D- F -11 B+ F+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 159 @Portland St. L 80 - 93 10% -7  0% 1 - 3 D -10 B +6 D+ A+ F F -15 F F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 365 Mississippi Valley W 86 - 70 91% +10  73% 2 - 3 D -10 D -5 F B- A- D -6 D- B- F
 Tue, Nov 25 81 @Florida St. L 59 - 89 3% -13  12% 2 - 4 F -20 F -20 F B+ F B +4 B F+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 129 @Fresno St. W 76 - 71 7% -4  13% 3 - 4 B +10 C+ +3 D D- A B+ +7 A+ F A
 Thu, Dec 4 158 @Cal St. Northridge L 66 - 87 10% -7  17% 3 - 5 0 - 1 F -18 F -11 F A F D -6 D- F C
 Sat, Dec 6 142 @UC Santa Barbara L 84 - 109 8% -14  2% 3 - 6 0 - 2 F -21 B- +5 A F C F -25 F F D-
 Thu, Dec 11 137 North Dakota St. L 69 - 80 18% -6  14% 3 - 7 D- -13 F -11 F B D- C -1 A+ F B+
 Sat, Dec 13 280 Pepperdine L 62 - 70 44% -4  12% 3 - 8 F -18 F -16 F F F C- -2 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 23 180 Idaho W 64 - 63 25% +2  72% 4 - 8 C- -3 F+ -9 C+ C- F B+ +6 A C- C+
 Thu, Jan 1 123 UC Irvine L 77 - 81 15% -6  0% 4 - 9 0 - 3 C- -4 B +7 C B+ A F -11 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 3 178 @UC Davis W 81 - 79 11% -2  27% 5 - 9 1 - 3 C+ +4 B- +5 D- B+ A C -1 C- F+ B-
 Thu, Jan 8 282 UC Riverside W 67 - 66 44% +0  53% 6 - 9 2 - 3 D -9 F -11 F A+ F B- +3 D+ A- A-
 Sat, Jan 10 265 @Long Beach St. L 75 - 81 21% -5  23% 6 - 10 2 - 4 D -9 D- -7 D+ F D+ C -1 D F+ A-
 Thu, Jan 15 142 UC Santa Barbara L 69 - 75 19% -9  0% 6 - 11 2 - 5 D+ -8 C- -1 F A A- D- -8 C- B C
 Sat, Jan 17 132 UC San Diego L 62 - 83 18% -13  6% 6 - 12 2 - 6 F -22 F -13 D- F F F+ -9 C+ D F
 Thu, Jan 22 116 @Hawaii L 71 - 98 6% -18  0% 6 - 13 2 - 7 F -21 D -4 F F+ A+ F -14 B F D
 Thu, Jan 29 222 Cal Poly L 79 - 104 32% -15  15% 6 - 14 2 - 8 F -31 F+ -9 C- A- F F -20 F D- A-
 Sat, Jan 31 178 UC Davis L 72 - 80 24% -0  36% 6 - 15 2 - 9 D- -12 D -5 C- B- D- D- -7 B F F+
 Thu, Feb 5 123 @UC Irvine L 62 - 78 6% -5  26% 6 - 16 2 - 10 D -10 D- -8 F B+ F C- -2 B- A- F
 Sat, Feb 7 206 @Cal St. Fullerton L 66 - 82 14% -16  0% 6 - 17 2 - 11 F+ -16 F -13 F C- D- C- -2 D A- C-
 Thu, Feb 12 116 Hawaii L 74 - 89 15% -10  9% 6 - 18 2 - 12 F+ -15 C +0 C+ D+ B- F -15 D+ F C-
 Thu, Feb 19 282 @UC Riverside L 65 - 93 24% -15  1% 6 - 19 2 - 13 F -32 F -16 F F D+ F -13 F B+ D-
 Sat, Feb 21 206 Cal St. Fullerton L 80 - 88 29% +2  63% 6 - 20 2 - 14 D- -14 C- -2 F+ C A F -11 F C+ C-
 Thu, Feb 26 132 @UC San Diego L 72 - 84 8% -11  1% 6 - 21 2 - 15 D+ -7 C- -1 C F D D- -7 B- F C+
 Sat, Feb 28 265 Long Beach St. L 75 - 77 40%
 Thu, Mar 5 158 Cal St. Northridge L 78 - 86 22%
 Sat, Mar 7 222 @Cal Poly L 80 - 91 16%
Totals 7 - 23 3 - 17 -11 D -6 F+ D- F+ D -5 F+ B- B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D+ D+ F+ D- 36% 65% 29% F+ F+ C+ D+ C- D B+ B- B+ D C D- D+ D+ 40% 19% 41% C- D+ F C- D- C D- C D-
1.00 53% 35% 29% -5 -2 0.88 31% 1.0 .30 19% .35 75% .27 1.16 58% 44% 36% +2 0 1.08 37% 1.1 .40 17% .37 73% .26
Nov
3		 California F F D+ D D 51% 33% 16% D D- C+ F F F A+ C A+ C- F F A+ D- 47% 14% 39% F F+ F B- F A F A- D-
0.82 43% 33% 29% -10 -1 0.80 31% 0.5 .14 23% .54 63% .34 1.19 75% 86% 25% +9 +2 1.24 40% 1.0 .40 19% .42 72% .30
Nov
11		 Western Illinois D- D- D- C+ F+ 46% 19% 35% C- F+ B F F+ F B+ A A B- A D F F 34% 34% 32% B D- F A+ C+ A+ F+ A+ C-
1.10 55% 33% 35% -2 +1 1.00 38% 0.8 .29 19% .37 80% .30 0.87 40% 40% 43% -1 -2 0.95 35% 0.6 .22 25% .36 56% .20
Nov
14		 Mississippi D+ C+ B- F C 41% 39% 20% D C- B- D C+ D- A+ F+ A+ F A+ F A+ A 44% 25% 31% F B+ F A F+ F F C F
0.96 56% 41% 22% -3 -2 0.91 32% 1.0 .32 21% .51 64% .32 1.31 48% 67% 20% -4 0 0.94 47% 0.9 .42 6% .43 76% .33
Nov
17		 Portland St. B F B- A- C- 34% 32% 34% F D+ C+ A+ A+ F A+ B+ A+ F F+ A+ F F 55% 11% 34% F F F+ F F C+ F B F
1.08 38% 40% 38% -5 -2 0.89 30% 1.9 .58 23% .51 79% .40 1.26 65% 20% 56% +13 +3 1.34 37% 1.4 .52 20% .44 65% .29
Nov
22		 Mississippi Valley D C- F F F 32% 25% 43% D- F C+ B B- A- A+ F+ A+ D C+ F A+ F+ 35% 46% 19% C+ D- C+ B+ B- F F A F
1.15 59% 31% 26% -7 -1 0.87 38% 1.4 .52 13% .65 69% .45 0.94 53% 50% 22% 0 -3 0.96 22% 0.8 .16 16% .46 62% .29
Nov
25		 Florida St. F C- F F F 49% 31% 20% C F B+ B- B+ F A+ F A+ B C- F A+ A- 44% 2% 54% F B F+ C- F+ A+ F F+ F
0.73 55% 21% 11% -14 -1 0.73 36% 1.0 .36 35% .49 62% .30 1.10 63% 100% 24% -5 +3 0.98 38% 1.2 .46 21% .45 79% .36
Nov
30		 Fresno St. C+ B A+ F C- 34% 38% 28% F D D- D D- A A+ A+ A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 10% 49% F+ A+ F F F A D- D D-
1.07 67% 50% 7% -4 -3 0.89 23% 1.0 .23 14% .39 96% .38 1.00 57% 0% 16% -17 +2 0.71 44% 1.3 .58 22% .34 79% .27
Dec
4		 Cal St. Northridge F F F F F 31% 31% 38% F+ F A C+ A F A+ B A+ D C- F C+ D 57% 8% 35% F D- F F+ F C F A+ C-
0.89 40% 27% 22% -16 -2 0.67 38% 1.2 .45 24% .43 79% .34 1.17 59% 75% 33% +3 +3 1.14 41% 1.1 .46 18% .41 52% .21
Dec
6		 UC Santa Barbara B- C- C A+ A+ 37% 22% 41% C- A F F F C A+ D+ A+ F F F F F 38% 13% 48% D F F F F D- F D+ F
1.15 59% 40% 53% +12 0 1.26 17% 0.4 .07 16% .61 70% .43 1.50 70% 57% 44% +14 +1 1.33 47% 1.2 .56 15% .55 79% .44
Dec
11		 North Dakota St. F C F F F 35% 38% 27% F F B+ C+ B D- A+ A- A+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 17% 40% F+ A+ F F F B+ F C+ F
0.94 61% 25% 29% -6 -3 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 22% .37 81% .30 1.09 45% 25% 21% -16 +1 0.72 49% 1.3 .65 19% .62 70% .44
Dec
13		 Pepperdine F F C- F F 40% 24% 36% D- F A- F F F A+ A+ A+ C- D F F+ F 44% 19% 38% D- F F+ A+ A+ A- F+ A D
0.92 44% 36% 19% -14 0 0.73 40% 0.4 .18 22% .48 96% .46 1.04 62% 56% 39% +8 +1 1.19 35% 0.2 .06 22% .36 68% .25
Dec
23		 Idaho F+ B A- C- B 27% 33% 40% D- C+ D+ B- C- F F F F B+ B- C+ A+ A 31% 24% 45% A- A C- C C- C+ C+ F C-
0.98 64% 47% 33% +4 -2 1.06 23% 1.1 .26 20% .15 38% .06 0.96 53% 33% 27% -7 -1 0.86 29% 1.0 .29 17% .28 80% .22
Jan
1		 UC Irvine B D+ F+ A+ B- 40% 40% 19% F+ C A+ D+ B+ A B A- B+ F C+ C F F 29% 47% 24% A+ F C- F F A- F C F
1.10 48% 30% 45% -4 -2 0.89 47% 0.9 .40 13% .30 78% .23 1.16 54% 38% 64% +10 -4 1.13 32% 1.6 .50 22% .46 68% .31
Jan
3		 UC Davis B- D C C- D 36% 25% 40% D- D- C+ A B+ A A+ A+ A+ C A D+ F C- 34% 11% 55% D- C- F+ D F+ B- F C F
1.13 53% 38% 33% -2 -1 0.96 33% 1.2 .39 14% .42 85% .36 1.10 47% 40% 42% +3 +1 1.09 33% 1.1 .36 20% .62 75% .47
Jan
8		 UC Riverside F C F A+ F 24% 57% 18% F F A B+ A+ F B- B+ B B- A+ F+ F D+ 42% 18% 40% D+ D+ B A+ A- A- C A+ B
0.96 58% 18% 44% -9 -6 0.73 41% 1.1 .46 21% .36 75% .27 0.94 33% 44% 50% 0 +1 1.04 24% 0.6 .13 23% .30 63% .19
Jan
10		 Long Beach St. D- A F C D+ 45% 26% 28% C- D+ D- F F D+ D+ A+ C+ C C B- F D- 35% 31% 33% C D B- F F+ A- F C- F
0.99 71% 14% 33% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.6 .14 19% .32 85% .28 1.07 59% 33% 44% +4 -2 1.06 23% 1.6 .37 21% .49 76% .37
Jan
15		 UC Santa Barbara C- D+ A F F+ 39% 39% 22% F F B+ A+ A A- B C- B- D- C F D D+ 24% 14% 62% C+ C- D+ A B C F D+ F
1.12 56% 50% 10% -4 -2 0.89 33% 1.4 .45 13% .39 71% .28 1.21 60% 50% 38% +6 0 1.14 34% 0.8 .28 18% .57 79% .45
Jan
17		 UC San Diego F F F C D- 29% 29% 43% F+ D- B- F F F A+ C A+ F+ A- A+ F C+ 43% 14% 43% C C+ B F D F D C- D
0.87 43% 29% 33% -7 -2 0.84 31% 0.4 .12 21% .48 70% .34 1.17 50% 25% 42% 0 +1 1.04 23% 1.4 .33 11% .32 70% .22
Jan
22		 Hawaii D F D- F+ F 43% 36% 21% F+ F F A F+ A+ A+ B- A+ F F A- A+ B 38% 14% 48% C+ B F F F D F F+ F
0.92 39% 32% 27% -13 -2 0.74 12% 1.2 .15 9% .55 72% .40 1.27 74% 29% 21% -5 +1 0.94 45% 1.5 .68 17% .53 79% .42
Jan
29		 Cal Poly F+ F A B- C 31% 29% 40% F C- B B+ A- F D- F F F F A+ F F 49% 2% 49% F F F A D- A- D+ F F
1.02 47% 50% 36% +1 -2 1.02 37% 1.2 .45 22% .23 50% .12 1.34 78% 0% 41% +14 +3 1.36 48% 0.8 .38 24% .34 100% .34
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 UC Davis D D- B A+ C+ 39% 30% 30% F C- D+ A+ B- D- B+ D B- D- C+ D- A- B 29% 29% 42% A B D F F F+ F D- F
1.03 50% 43% 43% +2 -1 1.04 28% 1.3 .34 22% .37 70% .26 1.15 57% 43% 30% -1 -2 0.96 31% 1.4 .44 14% .52 81% .42
Feb
5		 UC Irvine D- F C F F+ 28% 54% 18% F F B- B+ B+ F B A+ A+ C- C F+ A+ B+ 57% 20% 23% F B- F A+ A- F F A+ F
0.85 29% 37% 22% -12 -5 0.68 37% 1.1 .39 26% .30 94% .28 1.07 56% 45% 15% -6 +1 0.93 40% 0.6 .23 10% .47 58% .27
Feb
7		 Cal St. Fullerton F D- D- F F 42% 17% 40% C+ F B- F C- D- A+ F C C- A+ F F D- 35% 15% 50% D+ D F+ A+ A- C- D D+ D-
0.89 55% 33% 19% -11 +1 0.81 33% 0.9 .28 22% .41 54% .22 1.11 44% 63% 42% +5 0 1.13 31% 0.5 .15 15% .36 74% .27
Feb
12		 Hawaii C A- A+ F A 25% 55% 20% F C+ C- D D+ B- C+ A- B F F A+ D- F+ 30% 30% 40% A+ D+ F F F C- F D- F
1.02 64% 53% 9% +2 -5 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 15% .33 75% .24 1.23 86% 21% 37% +5 -2 1.09 38% 1.3 .50 18% .54 78% .42
Feb
19		 UC Riverside F F F F F 44% 40% 15% F F F+ F F D+ A A+ A+ F C A+ F F 47% 18% 35% D F D- A+ B+ D- D F F
0.84 48% 19% 25% -14 -2 0.69 23% 0.6 .14 17% .42 85% .36 1.21 58% 20% 63% +12 +1 1.27 32% 0.5 .16 16% .34 86% .29
Feb
21		 Cal St. Fullerton C- A+ F+ F D 25% 39% 36% F F+ C- C+ C A B+ A+ A F F D- F F 15% 29% 56% A+ F A- F C+ C- C- B+ C
1.09 86% 32% 25% 0 -3 0.95 28% 1.1 .30 14% .36 83% .30 1.20 75% 44% 48% +16 -3 1.29 19% 1.2 .22 15% .34 67% .22
Feb
26		 UC San Diego C- A+ A+ F B- 30% 28% 41% D- C F A F D A+ A A+ D- B F B- B- 39% 18% 43% B B- F F F C+ F C F
1.01 79% 54% 16% -1 -2 0.98 13% 1.3 .17 18% .55 78% .43 1.18 53% 50% 32% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.8 .61 17% .59 69% .40



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 3.6 1.5 5.1 9th
10th 7.5 0.1 7.7 10th
11th 40.0 44.0 3.3 87.3 11th
Total 40.0 44.0 14.4 1.6 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15 1.6% 1.6
4-16 14.4% 14.4
3-17 44.0% 44.0
2-18 40.0% 40.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6%
Lose Out 40.0%