Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.0#308
Expected Predictive Rating-8.7#308
Pace59.4#357
Improvement-0.6#260

Offense
Total Offense-6.6#339
First Shot-5.9#335
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#228
Layup/Dunks-5.7#354
2 Pt Jumpshots+8.0#3
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.2#353
Freethrows-0.9#251
Improvement+0.8#58

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#226
First Shot-2.7#262
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#77
Layups/Dunks+2.3#84
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#30
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#336
Freethrows-2.6#336
Improvement-1.3#338
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.4% 1.1% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 19.5% 9.6% 23.8%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Home) - 30.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 50 - 6
Quad 31 - 91 - 15
Quad 46 - 77 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 51   @ Utah L 44-72 4%     0 - 1 -15.4 -15.7 -2.9
  Nov 16, 2022 309   @ Idaho W 52-43 40%     1 - 1 +3.7 -16.4 +21.9
  Nov 22, 2022 245   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 73-63 36%     2 - 1 +5.7 -2.0 +7.9
  Nov 23, 2022 175   @ UTEP L 67-68 OT 16%     2 - 2 +1.6 +3.8 -2.2
  Nov 25, 2022 289   Alcorn St. L 54-62 45%     2 - 3 -14.8 -22.0 +7.2
  Dec 03, 2022 275   @ Dartmouth L 54-79 32%     2 - 4 -28.1 -16.4 -12.6
  Dec 06, 2022 119   @ San Jose St. L 48-58 11%     2 - 5 -4.6 -13.3 +6.6
  Dec 17, 2022 218   Abilene Christian L 59-65 39%     2 - 6 -11.0 -6.7 -5.4
  Dec 20, 2022 169   Fresno St. L 48-56 30%     2 - 7 -10.7 -10.2 -2.7
  Dec 29, 2022 158   @ UC Riverside L 59-71 15%     2 - 8 0 - 1 -8.9 -7.4 -2.5
  Dec 31, 2022 100   UC Irvine L 75-79 18%     2 - 9 0 - 2 -2.1 +1.8 -3.8
  Jan 05, 2023 298   Cal Poly W 61-51 59%     3 - 9 1 - 2 -0.3 -5.1 +6.3
  Jan 07, 2023 174   @ UC Davis L 48-67 16%     3 - 10 1 - 3 -16.4 -19.7 +1.8
  Jan 11, 2023 101   UC Santa Barbara L 48-60 18%     3 - 11 1 - 4 -10.2 -12.7 +0.0
  Jan 14, 2023 262   UC San Diego W 56-52 50%     4 - 11 2 - 4 -4.1 -8.4 +5.2
  Jan 16, 2023 154   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 46-76 14%     4 - 12 2 - 5 -26.7 -22.5 -4.8
  Jan 21, 2023 101   @ UC Santa Barbara L 58-76 8%     4 - 13 2 - 6 -10.7 -4.8 -7.5
  Jan 26, 2023 174   UC Davis L 58-79 31%     4 - 14 2 - 7 -23.8 -6.0 -21.6
  Jan 28, 2023 134   @ Hawaii L 69-72 12%     4 - 15 2 - 8 +1.6 +11.6 -10.5
  Feb 02, 2023 158   UC Riverside L 60-66 30%    
  Feb 04, 2023 262   @ UC San Diego L 59-64 30%    
  Feb 09, 2023 328   Cal St. Northridge W 61-57 66%    
  Feb 11, 2023 165   Long Beach St. L 65-70 31%    
  Feb 15, 2023 298   @ Cal Poly L 56-59 37%    
  Feb 20, 2023 134   Hawaii L 55-62 26%    
  Feb 23, 2023 328   @ Cal St. Northridge L 59-60 44%    
  Feb 25, 2023 154   Cal St. Fullerton L 56-62 30%    
  Mar 02, 2023 165   @ Long Beach St. L 62-73 15%    
  Mar 04, 2023 100   @ UC Irvine L 56-71 7%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.8 7th
8th 0.1 3.5 9.4 9.0 4.0 0.7 0.0 26.8 8th
9th 0.8 9.8 17.4 10.9 3.0 0.3 0.0 42.3 9th
10th 0.2 5.6 10.3 3.6 0.3 0.0 20.1 10th
11th 2.4 4.8 1.4 0.1 8.7 11th
Total 2.6 11.2 21.7 24.6 20.6 12.2 5.1 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.1
10-10 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
9-11 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.6
8-12 5.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.0
7-13 12.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 12.2
6-14 20.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.6
5-15 24.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 24.6
4-16 21.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 21.7
3-17 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.2
2-18 2.6% 2.6
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.6%