Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#206
Expected Predictive Rating+1.6#153
Pace65.4#273
Improvement+2.9#24

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#278
First Shot-5.6#324
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#76
Layup/Dunks-5.4#332
2 Pt Jumpshots+9.1#2
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#281
Freethrows-5.8#358
Improvement-0.3#214

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#109
First Shot+3.2#79
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#268
Layups/Dunks+4.8#34
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#8
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#305
Freethrows-1.9#294
Improvement+3.1#6
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 6.2% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.2 14.5
.500 or above 44.0% 45.9% 18.1%
.500 or above in Conference 53.8% 55.1% 35.8%
Conference Champion 5.0% 5.2% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 6.3% 6.0% 11.3%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
First Round5.6% 6.0% 1.3%
Second Round0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho (Home) - 93.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 32 - 5
Quad 33 - 65 - 10
Quad 49 - 513 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 8   @ UCLA L 58-95 3%     0 - 1 -16.5 -11.1 -2.3
  Nov 18, 2021 317   @ Northern Arizona L 64-74 65%     0 - 2 -15.8 -12.2 -3.7
  Nov 26, 2021 79   @ Boise St. W 46-39 14%     1 - 2 +16.8 -13.6 +31.4
  Dec 11, 2021 351   Idaho W 77-61 93%    
  Dec 15, 2021 143   @ Abilene Christian L 62-69 26%    
  Dec 18, 2021 75   @ Colorado L 59-71 14%    
  Dec 21, 2021 230   Dartmouth W 63-59 65%    
  Dec 30, 2021 208   Cal St. Fullerton W 67-64 61%    
  Jan 01, 2022 297   Long Beach St. W 75-67 77%    
  Jan 06, 2022 271   @ Cal St. Northridge W 63-62 53%    
  Jan 08, 2022 118   @ UC Santa Barbara L 60-68 24%    
  Jan 13, 2022 212   UC Davis W 69-66 61%    
  Jan 15, 2022 139   UC Riverside L 60-61 47%    
  Jan 18, 2022 316   Cal Poly W 67-57 81%    
  Jan 20, 2022 188   Hawaii W 67-65 59%    
  Jan 27, 2022 74   @ UC Irvine L 55-67 14%    
  Jan 29, 2022 193   @ UC San Diego L 64-68 39%    
  Feb 03, 2022 297   @ Long Beach St. W 72-70 59%    
  Feb 05, 2022 208   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 64-67 40%    
  Feb 10, 2022 118   UC Santa Barbara L 63-65 43%    
  Feb 12, 2022 271   Cal St. Northridge W 66-59 72%    
  Feb 17, 2022 139   @ UC Riverside L 57-64 29%    
  Feb 19, 2022 212   @ UC Davis L 66-69 40%    
  Feb 22, 2022 316   @ Cal Poly W 64-60 63%    
  Feb 27, 2022 188   @ Hawaii L 64-68 37%    
  Mar 03, 2022 193   UC San Diego W 67-65 57%    
  Mar 05, 2022 74   UC Irvine L 58-64 30%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 5.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.3 1.9 1.1 0.2 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 3.0 4.1 2.1 0.5 0.1 10.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.6 3.8 2.0 0.2 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 4.2 4.7 2.0 0.2 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 4.6 4.6 1.5 0.1 12.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 4.3 4.2 1.6 0.1 11.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 3.9 3.4 1.3 0.0 10.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.3 2.6 1.0 0.0 8.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.5 1.7 0.4 0.0 6.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.1 3.7 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 2.6 4.8 6.8 8.1 10.2 11.5 11.6 10.6 9.3 8.1 6.0 3.6 2.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
17-3 83.3% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
16-4 56.7% 1.5    0.7 0.7 0.1
15-5 32.7% 1.2    0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0
14-6 6.6% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 2.9 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 96.9% 65.6% 31.3% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.9%
19-1 0.2% 51.0% 51.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.6% 53.0% 49.3% 3.6% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 7.1%
17-3 1.0% 31.9% 31.9% 12.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.7
16-4 2.6% 28.9% 28.9% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.8
15-5 3.6% 14.9% 14.9% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 3.1
14-6 6.0% 15.4% 15.4% 13.9 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 5.1
13-7 8.1% 10.3% 10.3% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 7.3
12-8 9.3% 7.1% 7.1% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 8.6
11-9 10.6% 2.8% 2.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 10.3
10-10 11.6% 3.5% 3.5% 15.4 0.2 0.2 11.2
9-11 11.5% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 11.1
8-12 10.2% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.0
7-13 8.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 8.0
6-14 6.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.7
5-15 4.8% 4.8
4-16 2.6% 2.6
3-17 1.2% 1.2
2-18 0.8% 0.8
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.6 1.1 94.2 0.0%