IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.5	#223
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.9	#238
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.7	#223

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.7	#227

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.6%	7.4%	3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.7	12.9	13.7

.500 or above	40.0%	65.9%	36.2%
.500 or above in Conference	45.3%	63.6%	42.6%
Conference Champion	3.3%	6.9%	2.8%
Last Place in Conference	8.3%	4.1%	8.9%

First Four	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
First Round	3.6%	7.4%	3.1%
Second Round	0.2%	1.0%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: California (Away) - 12.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 5
Quad 3	3 - 7	4 - 12
Quad 4	11 - 5	14 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	91	@ California	L	65-77	13%
Nov 11, 2025	339	Western Illinois	W	72-61	84%
Nov 14, 2025	30	@ Mississippi	L	60-81	3%
Nov 17, 2025	213	@ Portland St.	L	67-70	38%
Nov 22, 2025	365	Mississippi Valley	W	78-53	98%
Nov 25, 2025	78	@ Florida St.	L	65-79	11%
Nov 30, 2025	198	@ Fresno St.	L	72-76	35%
Dec 04, 2025	176	@ Cal St. Northridge	L	72-77	32%
Dec 06, 2025	135	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	64-72	24%
Dec 11, 2025	208	North Dakota St.	W	70-68	58%
Dec 13, 2025	239	Pepperdine	W	74-70	63%
Dec 23, 2025	235	Idaho	W	73-69	62%
Jan 01, 2026	93	UC Irvine	L	67-73	31%
Jan 03, 2026	252	@ UC Davis	L	66-68	45%
Jan 08, 2026	258	UC Riverside	W	72-67	66%
Jan 10, 2026	264	@ Long Beach St.	L	66-67	46%
Jan 15, 2026	135	UC Santa Barbara	L	67-69	42%
Jan 17, 2026	117	UC San Diego	L	66-69	39%
Jan 23, 2026	134	@ Hawaii	L	63-71	25%
Jan 29, 2026	256	Cal Poly	W	82-77	64%
Jan 31, 2026	252	UC Davis	W	69-65	64%
Feb 05, 2026	93	@ UC Irvine	L	64-76	17%
Feb 07, 2026	337	@ Cal St. Fullerton	W	70-66	63%
Feb 12, 2026	134	Hawaii	L	66-68	43%
Feb 19, 2026	258	@ UC Riverside	L	69-70	45%
Feb 21, 2026	337	Cal St. Fullerton	W	73-63	80%
Feb 26, 2026	117	@ UC San Diego	L	63-72	22%
Feb 28, 2026	264	Long Beach St.	W	69-64	66%
Mar 05, 2026	176	Cal St. Northridge	W	75-74	52%
Mar 07, 2026	256	@ Cal Poly	L	79-80	46%
Projected Record						14 - 16	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.0	0.4	0.7	0.9	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0		3.3	1st
2nd												0.0	0.3	1.0	2.0	1.8	0.8	0.3	0.0				6.1	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.5	2.0	2.9	1.9	0.6	0.1	0.0					8.1	3rd
4th									0.0	0.1	0.8	2.9	3.7	2.1	0.4	0.0							10.0	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.2	3.7	4.2	1.9	0.3	0.0								11.4	5th
6th								0.2	1.6	4.6	4.4	1.6	0.2	0.0									12.6	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	2.1	4.5	4.1	1.3	0.1											12.4	7th
8th					0.0	0.4	2.3	4.5	3.5	1.1	0.0	0.0											11.8	8th
9th			0.0	0.0	0.7	2.5	3.9	2.7	0.7	0.1													10.5	9th
10th		0.0	0.2	1.1	2.4	2.8	1.6	0.4	0.0														8.6	10th
11th	0.1	0.5	1.2	1.6	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0															5.1	11th

Total	0.1	0.5	1.4	2.7	4.3	6.2	8.2	9.8	10.4	11.2	10.2	9.3	8.2	6.4	4.7	3.2	1.8	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
18-2	98.1%	0.4		0.4	0.0	0.0
17-3	71.9%	0.7		0.5	0.2	0.0
16-4	52.2%	0.9		0.5	0.3	0.0
15-5	23.2%	0.7		0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
14-6	8.0%	0.4		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.6%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0			0.0			0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	3.3%	3.3		1.9	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%		50.3%	50.3%		11.0												0.0						0.0
19-1	0.1%		58.4%	54.4%	4.1%	11.4											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		8.9%
18-2	0.4%		37.5%	37.5%		11.8												0.1	0.1	0.0				0.3
17-3	1.0%		31.4%	31.4%		12.4												0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.7
16-4	1.8%		27.2%	27.2%		12.8												0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0		1.3
15-5	3.2%		19.7%	19.7%		13.2													0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1		2.6
14-6	4.7%		12.5%	12.5%		13.6													0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	4.1
13-7	6.4%		8.7%	8.7%		13.9													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	5.8
12-8	8.2%		3.9%	3.9%		14.9													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	7.9
11-9	9.3%		2.1%	2.1%		15.8														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	9.1
10-10	10.2%		2.0%	2.0%		15.2														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	10.0
9-11	11.2%		0.6%	0.6%		17.4																0.0	0.0	11.1
8-12	10.4%		0.4%	0.4%		15.9																0.0	0.0	10.3
7-13	9.8%		0.1%	0.1%		15.5																0.0	0.0	9.8
6-14	8.2%																							8.2
5-15	6.2%																							6.2
4-16	4.3%																							4.3
3-17	2.7%																							2.7
2-18	1.4%																							1.4
1-19	0.5%																							0.5
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		3.6%	3.6%	0.0%	13.7											0.0	0.2	0.6	1.0	1.0	0.7	0.2	96.4		0.0%