Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.7 #320
Expected Predictive Rating -8.3 #296
Pace 72.7 #77
Improvement -0.9 #232

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #314 D- C D B F+
Defense #298 C- D- C+ D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #232 1.03 #323 -3.5 #298
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% #10 0.69 #299 +4.0 #29
Three Pointers 29% #357 0.93 #295 -7.3 #355
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #349 -6.8 #349
Freethrows 0.35 #51 75% #97 0.26 #42
Second Chance 32.2% #133 0.99 #215 0.32 #149
Turnovers 19.5% #321
Total Offense -5.5 #314

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #109 1.16 #173 -1.6 #231
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #263 0.90 #351 -0.3 #205
Three Pointers 41% #194 1.02 #194 +0.0 #177
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #243 -1.9 #243
Freethrows 0.37 #331 72% #169 0.27 #325
Second Chance 37.5% #358 1.06 #242 0.40 #344
Turnovers 17.6% #137
Total Defense -4.2 #298

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.7% #350 1.1% #274
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.1% #334 2.6% #233
Possession Length 17.4 #181 15.9 #18
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #136 0.22 #321
Improvement -0.8 #231 -0.2 #200

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 79.0% 61.4% 83.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Fullerton (Away) - 18.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 32 - 93 - 15
Quad 45 - 68 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 65 @California L 60 - 87 3% -14  0 - 1 -15 -9 D F+ F -5 F+ F+ A
 Tue, Nov 11 362 Western Illinois W 74 - 58 83% +7  1 - 1 -4 -4 D- D- F+ +1 F+ C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 60 @Mississippi L 60 - 82 3% -11  1 - 2 -10 +1 C C+ D+ -14 B+ D- F
 Mon, Nov 17 140 @Portland St. L 80 - 93 10% -7  1 - 3 -9 +9 C- A+ D- -17 F F C
 Sat, Nov 22 365 Mississippi Valley W 86 - 70 93% +10  2 - 3 -11 -2 F B+ A- -10 D B- F
 Tue, Nov 25 100 @Florida St. L 59 - 89 6% -13  2 - 4 -22 -18 F B F +0 C+ D- A+
 Sun, Nov 30 145 @Fresno St. W 76 - 71 10% -4  3 - 4 +9 +6 D+ D+ A+ +3 A+ F B
 Thu, Dec 4 191 @Cal St. Northridge L 66 - 87 16% -7  3 - 5 0 - 1 -20 -10 F A- F -9 D- F C
 Sat, Dec 6 135 @UC Santa Barbara L 84 - 109 10% -14  3 - 6 0 - 2 -21 +7 A F C+ -27 F F D-
 Thu, Dec 11 149 North Dakota St. L 69 - 80 24% -6  3 - 7 -13 -9 F B D+ -4 A+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 275 Pepperdine L 62 - 70 49% -4  3 - 8 -18 -11 F F F -6 F A+ B+
 Tue, Dec 23 187 Idaho W 64 - 63 32% +2  4 - 8 -4 -7 C+ C F +3 A C- C
 Thu, Jan 1 115 UC Irvine L 77 - 81 18% -6  4 - 9 0 - 3 -4 +9 C A- A -13 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 3 184 @UC Davis W 81 - 79 15% -2  5 - 9 1 - 3 +4 +7 D B A -3 C- D- B-
 Thu, Jan 8 291 UC Riverside W 67 - 66 53% +0  6 - 9 2 - 3 -9 -10 F A+ F +1 C- A- B
 Sat, Jan 10 251 @Long Beach St. L 75 - 81 23% -5  6 - 10 2 - 4 -8 -4 D+ F C- -3 D+ D- A-
 Thu, Jan 15 135 UC Santa Barbara L 69 - 75 22% -9  6 - 11 2 - 5 -8 +2 F A+ A -10 C B- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 142 UC San Diego L 62 - 83 23% -13  6 - 12 2 - 6 -23 -11 D- F F -11 C D F
 Thu, Jan 22 99 @Hawaii L 71 - 98 6% -18  6 - 13 2 - 7 -19 -1 F+ F A+ -15 B F D
 Thu, Jan 29 264 Cal Poly L 79 - 104 46% -15  6 - 14 2 - 8 -34 -8 D+ B+ F -24 F D- B
 Sat, Jan 31 184 UC Davis L 72 - 80 31% -0  6 - 15 2 - 9 -12 -3 C- C+ D- -9 B+ F D-
 Thu, Feb 5 115 @UC Irvine L 62 - 78 8% -5  6 - 16 2 - 10 -10 -6 F A- F -4 C A- F
 Sat, Feb 7 217 @Cal St. Fullerton L 76 - 85 19%
 Thu, Feb 12 99 Hawaii L 68 - 80 14%
 Thu, Feb 19 291 @UC Riverside L 72 - 77 31%
 Sat, Feb 21 217 Cal St. Fullerton L 79 - 82 37%
 Thu, Feb 26 142 @UC San Diego L 67 - 81 10%
 Sat, Feb 28 251 Long Beach St. L 75 - 77 43%
 Thu, Mar 5 191 Cal St. Northridge L 79 - 84 33%
 Sat, Mar 7 264 @Cal Poly L 82 - 89 25%
Totals 8 - 22 4 - 16 -10 -5 D- C D -4 C- D- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.1 2.6 4.7 1.6 0.1 9.0 9th
10th 0.8 7.7 12.7 4.4 0.3 25.9 10th
11th 9.8 23.8 21.3 6.5 0.5 61.9 11th
Total 9.8 24.6 29.1 21.9 10.3 3.4 0.7 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 0.1% 0.1
8-12 0.7% 0.7
7-13 3.4% 3.4
6-14 10.3% 10.3
5-15 21.9% 21.9
4-16 29.1% 29.1
3-17 24.6% 24.6
2-18 9.8% 9.8
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 9.8%