Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.1 159
Expected Predictive Rating +1.5 139
Pace 80.8 4
Improvement +9.2 3

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 170 C C C- C- B
Defense C 165 C+ C C- C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 9 C- 56% 225 +4.2 43
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 127 D+ 35% 272 -1.6 261
Three Pointers 35% 309 B- 36% 102 -2.2 256
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.0 59 C -0.5 189
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 158
Second Chance C+ 32.1% 130 D+ 0.97 267 C 0.31 174
Turnovers C- 17.3% 208
Freethrows C 0.31 172 F+ 66% 352 C- 0.20 247
Total Offense C -0.3 170

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 58% 44 C- 11.5% 210
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 32% 92 D+ 6.9% 295
Three Pointers B+ 91% 34 D+ 1.2% 276
Total B 63% 42 D 7.1% 326

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 324 C 57% 167 -3.7 64
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 243 C 39% 208 -0.8 126
Three Pointers 49% 11 C+ 33% 141 +3.7 334
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 143 C+ -0.6 154
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 146
Second Chance B 27.3% 71 D- 1.16 338 C 0.32 198
Turnovers C- 15.8% 240
Freethrows C 0.30 191 D 75% 324 C- 0.23 222
Total Defense C +0.2 165

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 54% 298 C- 9.3% 237
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 144 C- 3.8% 245
Three Pointers C+ 82% 113 C+ 1.2% 103
Total D+ 60% 273 D+ 4.3% 285

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.1 19 16.8 93
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 146 0.20 288
Improvement +3.0 #56 +6.2 #5

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14% 16% 11%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 99%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 28% 38% 12%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round14% 16% 11%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Away) - 59.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 38 - 59 - 9
Quad 410 - 319 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 90 @Northern Iowa L 57 - 86 19% -17  7% 0 - 1 F -20 F -11 F+ D- F D- -8 D- D+ C
 Sun, Nov 9 295 @North Dakota W 93 - 85 67% +4  66% 1 - 1 C+ +3 B +6 B C+ D+ D+ -4 D D- F
 Tue, Nov 11 132 @North Dakota St. L 68 - 90 32% -5  20% 1 - 2 F+ -17 F -15 F B+ F C+ +1 A+ F F+
 Sun, Nov 16 146 Troy W 94 - 85 58% +4  74% 2 - 2 B- +7 A +13 A- A+ D D- -7 F+ A+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 186 Idaho L 64 - 78 57% -4  30% 2 - 3 F+ -16 F -15 F C C C+ +0 A+ F C-
 Fri, Nov 28 261 Idaho St. L 50 - 82 71% -18  10% 2 - 4 F -38 F -35 F D F C -1 C- F C+
 Thu, Dec 4 331 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87 - 66 90% +7  73% 3 - 4 1 - 0 B- +7 C +0 B- B C B+ +5 A+ F A
 Sat, Dec 6 116 @UC Irvine L 71 - 85 28% +0  56% 3 - 5 1 - 1 D+ -8 B- +4 B- F+ A+ F -12 C F D-
 Wed, Dec 10 133 Fresno St. W 89 - 87 55% +4  72% 4 - 5 C +1 A +13 A+ F B F -13 F A- D
 Sat, Dec 13 263 @Delaware W 88 - 66 60% +19  98% 5 - 5 A +19 A +14 A+ D+ C+ B+ +6 B B- A-
 Mon, Dec 22 271 Sacramento St. W 100 - 88 81% +4  77% 6 - 5 C+ +3 B- +4 A- F B+ C- -3 C+ A- F
 Sat, Dec 27 75 @Stanford L 80 - 88 16% -1  45% 6 - 6 C+ +3 B- +5 A- F C- C -1 F A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 179 @UC Davis L 80 - 89 43% -6  21% 6 - 7 1 - 2 D+ -7 C- -1 D+ D+ D D -5 F B+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 144 UC Santa Barbara W 74 - 65 58% +6  94% 7 - 7 2 - 2 B- +7 F+ -9 D B- F A+ +15 A+ A C+
 Thu, Jan 8 231 Cal Poly W 95 - 90 74% -3  18% 8 - 7 3 - 2 C- -2 C+ +2 A B- C- D -5 C+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 205 @Cal St. Fullerton L 79 - 86 49% +1  65% 8 - 8 3 - 3 D+ -7 D -4 D+ D+ C+ C- -2 D C D+
 Thu, Jan 15 137 @UC San Diego W 84 - 79 33% +2  62% 9 - 8 4 - 3 B +9 A- +10 C A A+ C -1 A F+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 264 Long Beach St. L 80 - 87 79% -0  38% 9 - 9 4 - 4 F+ -16 F+ -8 F A- D+ D- -7 F+ B- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 117 @Hawaii L 68 - 89 28% -9  1% 9 - 10 4 - 5 F+ -15 D- -7 C D- D D -6 F A B
 Thu, Jan 29 179 UC Davis W 94 - 78 66% +4  53% 10 - 10 5 - 5 B+ +12 B- +5 A F+ B+ B +5 B C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 137 UC San Diego W 81 - 64 56% +7  80% 11 - 10 6 - 5 A- +15 C +2 B A- F A+ +13 A+ C+ D+
 Thu, Feb 5 231 @Cal Poly W 97 - 96 53% +5  80% 12 - 10 7 - 5 C +0 B+ +8 A- B+ C F+ -8 F C- D+
 Sat, Feb 7 279 UC Riverside W 88 - 74 82% +3  66% 13 - 10 8 - 5 C+ +4 B- +5 A B+ C C- -2 B D- C-
 Sat, Feb 14 117 Hawaii W 84 - 60 50% +14  95% 14 - 10 9 - 5 A+ +24 A- +10 A+ C C- A+ +13 A- A A+
 Thu, Feb 19 144 @UC Santa Barbara W 85 - 83 OT 35% -2  29% 15 - 10 10 - 5 B- +6 D -5 F B A+ A +11 A+ B+ B-
 Sat, Feb 21 264 @Long Beach St. W 81 - 78 60%
 Thu, Feb 26 116 UC Irvine L 75 - 76 49%
 Sat, Feb 28 279 @UC Riverside W 81 - 77 64%
 Thu, Mar 5 331 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 86 - 78 78%
 Sat, Mar 7 205 Cal St. Fullerton W 89 - 83 70%
Totals 18 - 12 13 - 7 +0 C +0 F+ C B C +0 B- F+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C- D+ B- C 47% 42% 35% B C C+ D+ C C- C F+ C- C C C C+ C+ 33% 18% 49% C C+ B D- C C- C D C-
1.08 56% 35% 36% -1 +1 1.03 32% 1.0 .31 17% .31 66% .20 1.08 57% 39% 33% -1 0 1.00 27% 1.2 .32 16% .30 75% .23
Nov
6		 Northern Iowa F F C+ D+ F 36% 21% 43% C- F+ B F D- F A+ B- A+ D- D- A+ D- D 42% 8% 49% D- D- B- F D+ C A F B+
0.79 29% 40% 30% -12 0 0.77 29% 0.5 .13 28% .44 74% .33 1.20 68% 20% 38% +6 +2 1.17 18% 1.5 .27 14% .16 80% .13
Nov
9		 North Dakota B A- F A+ B+ 47% 20% 33% D+ B A- D- C+ D+ A+ F B+ D+ F B+ A+ D- 34% 17% 48% B D B+ F D- F C B+ C+
1.23 71% 20% 47% +9 +1 1.22 42% 1.0 .42 21% .52 61% .32 1.12 80% 30% 25% 0 0 1.02 23% 1.6 .36 11% .34 65% .22
Nov
11		 North Dakota St. F D- F F F 50% 23% 27% B- F C+ A+ B+ F C F+ C- C+ B- D- A+ A+ 30% 18% 52% D+ A+ F F F F+ F D- F
0.84 54% 23% 20% -11 0 0.80 31% 1.2 .36 25% .26 69% .18 1.12 56% 45% 22% -9 0 0.84 39% 1.4 .54 12% .37 77% .28
Nov
16		 Troy A B- A+ B B 56% 9% 35% A+ A- A+ A+ A+ D C- C- C- D- F+ F C- F 37% 9% 54% C F+ A+ A+ A+ F D F F
1.29 60% 60% 37% +5 +3 1.17 45% 1.3 .61 19% .27 69% .19 1.16 65% 60% 34% +5 +1 1.15 21% 0.7 .15 11% .34 86% .29
Nov
26		 Idaho F A F F F 36% 24% 40% C+ F C C C C B+ D- B- C+ C A A+ A+ 26% 7% 67% D+ A+ C- F F C- F F F
0.87 70% 23% 14% -11 -1 0.78 26% 1.1 .28 15% .40 68% .27 1.06 57% 25% 25% -10 +1 0.83 29% 1.6 .47 15% .43 81% .35
Nov
28		 Idaho St. F F F F F 21% 26% 53% F F C F D F C- C+ C C A- F C+ D 25% 22% 53% A C- A F F C+ C D- C-
0.66 25% 13% 20% -24 -2 0.49 30% 0.9 .26 20% .31 79% .25 1.09 46% 73% 33% +4 -1 1.08 25% 1.9 .46 19% .31 79% .24
Dec
4		 Cal St. Bakersfield C C A+ C- C+ 57% 8% 35% A+ B- B- B B C B F F+ B+ A+ A A+ A+ 31% 31% 38% C A+ F+ F F A F D F
1.17 59% 75% 33% +3 +3 1.14 41% 1.1 .46 18% .41 52% .21 0.89 40% 27% 22% -16 -2 0.67 38% 1.2 .45 24% .43 79% .34
Dec
6		 UC Irvine B- D- F A+ C+ 48% 19% 33% B+ B- F D F+ A+ B- F C F A- D D C 42% 27% 31% C- C F F F D- D C+ D+
1.02 43% 27% 42% -5 +1 0.93 24% 0.8 .19 10% .29 61% .18 1.22 45% 43% 38% -2 -1 0.96 41% 1.9 .76 14% .35 67% .23
Dec
10		 Fresno St. A B- A+ A+ A+ 48% 11% 41% A A+ C F F B D+ A+ B F D B F F 37% 11% 52% D F A- A- A- D B F C
1.25 65% 67% 45% +14 +2 1.33 29% 0.6 .18 17% .24 93% .22 1.22 65% 33% 46% +12 +1 1.28 23% 0.9 .20 15% .27 88% .23
Dec
13		 Delaware A D- A+ A+ A+ 43% 19% 38% B+ A+ A- F D+ C+ D C- D B+ A+ F C- B 29% 13% 58% D+ B F+ A+ B- A- F C- F
1.30 52% 70% 50% +13 +1 1.28 38% 0.7 .26 13% .24 79% .19 0.98 43% 50% 36% -1 0 1.00 26% 0.6 .15 22% .34 78% .27
Dec
22		 Sacramento St. B- B- A+ B+ A- 50% 9% 41% B A- F+ F F B+ A+ B A+ C- B+ D- B C 32% 32% 35% B C+ A+ F A- F D+ F F+
1.23 62% 80% 38% +8 +2 1.22 25% 0.7 .17 13% .43 77% .33 1.08 48% 43% 30% -4 -2 0.91 15% 1.5 .23 10% .37 89% .33
Dec
27		 Stanford B- D+ F+ A+ B+ 44% 21% 35% B A- F F F C- A+ B A+ C D+ B F F 39% 7% 54% C F A+ A+ A+ B- F C+ F
1.06 52% 30% 47% +3 0 1.08 17% 0.8 .13 20% .50 80% .40 1.17 61% 33% 44% +9 +2 1.24 24% 0.5 .12 17% .61 71% .43
Jan
1		 UC Davis C- C F C- D- 55% 7% 38% A D+ C+ F D+ D A+ F B D F+ C- F F 24% 29% 47% A+ F B+ B+ B+ B- B D+ B-
1.05 58% 0% 33% -3 +3 1.02 33% 0.8 .26 21% .43 62% .26 1.16 69% 38% 50% +14 -2 1.25 22% 0.9 .19 20% .29 78% .23
Jan
3		 UC Santa Barbara F+ B- A+ F F+ 52% 14% 33% A- D B- C B- F A+ F A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ 46% 5% 48% F A+ A B+ A C+ D+ F D-
1.01 64% 67% 14% -3 +2 1.00 31% 1.1 .34 22% .65 62% .40 0.89 54% 0% 19% -15 +3 0.77 24% 0.9 .21 19% .34 85% .29
Jan
8		 Cal Poly C+ C B A+ A 53% 13% 34% B+ A A- D- B- C- A+ F B D C B+ D+ C- 23% 13% 64% A C+ A F C- F C C+ C+
1.17 61% 43% 50% +10 +2 1.26 41% 0.9 .38 17% .40 59% .24 1.11 57% 25% 36% 0 0 1.02 23% 1.4 .32 16% .31 76% .24
Jan
10		 Cal St. Fullerton D C F C+ D 47% 15% 38% B D+ D+ C- D+ C+ D- F F C- C A+ F D 41% 15% 44% D D B- D- C D+ F B F+
1.01 61% 22% 35% -1 +1 1.03 26% 1.0 .26 18% .25 38% .09 1.10 59% 25% 42% +4 +1 1.11 23% 1.1 .26 14% .42 68% .28
Jan
15		 UC San Diego A- D A- D C- 48% 20% 31% B- C A- A A A+ A+ D A+ C B D+ A+ A 38% 17% 45% B- A B+ F F+ F C- D- D+
1.16 50% 45% 29% -5 +1 0.94 36% 1.2 .44 10% .44 66% .29 1.09 52% 40% 26% -7 +1 0.88 21% 1.7 .36 8% .29 74% .21
Jan
17		 Long Beach St. F+ F D- F F 56% 11% 33% A F A- B- A- D+ A D+ A- D- F C C- F+ 26% 20% 54% D F+ A+ F B- C- F F F
1.01 47% 33% 22% -13 +2 0.81 37% 1.3 .46 19% .45 72% .33 1.10 79% 36% 34% +5 -1 1.11 18% 1.3 .24 16% .42 82% .35
Jan
24		 Hawaii D- F+ B C- C 45% 28% 28% D+ C A- F D- D C F F D D+ F F F 30% 19% 51% A- F D A+ A B F C F
0.88 46% 44% 31% -5 0 0.91 35% 0.5 .19 18% .30 47% .14 1.15 63% 50% 41% +9 0 1.19 34% 0.6 .21 22% .48 72% .35
Jan
29		 UC Davis B- A+ F B+ A 48% 8% 43% B+ A D F F+ B+ B- F F+ B B- A+ D- B 35% 25% 40% B- B B D C+ D+ D A+ C+
1.18 76% 20% 38% +10 +2 1.27 26% 0.8 .21 16% .34 52% .18 0.98 55% 21% 39% -2 -1 0.96 23% 1.1 .26 16% .37 64% .24
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 UC San Diego C C B+ C B- 48% 17% 35% B B A C- A- F A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ 43% 16% 41% C+ A+ D+ B+ C+ D+ C- A+ A-
1.08 56% 44% 33% 0 +1 1.04 40% 1.0 .40 21% .39 78% .30 0.85 42% 22% 30% -12 +1 0.80 29% 0.9 .25 15% .28 44% .12
Feb
5		 Cal Poly B+ D A+ A+ A- 49% 17% 33% B- A- D A+ B+ C F D+ F F+ F D- F 33% 0% 67% D+ F A+ F C- D+ A+ F B+
1.22 55% 55% 48% +8 +1 1.21 27% 1.6 .43 16% .15 70% .10 1.20 74% 38% +10 +2 1.26 16% 2.0 .32 19% .22 93% .20
Feb
7		 UC Riverside B- C+ B A+ A- 62% 17% 21% A- A C- A+ B+ C B- F F C- C D A- B 25% 13% 63% C B F C D- C- A F C+
1.21 61% 44% 55% +9 +2 1.25 29% 1.3 .39 15% .36 45% .16 1.02 57% 43% 29% -5 0 0.93 35% 0.9 .30 18% .22 92% .20
Feb
14		 Hawaii A- D+ C- A+ A+ 48% 21% 31% B- A+ D A+ C C- B B B+ A+ A D- A- A 35% 14% 51% B- A- C+ A+ A A+ C- A C+
1.17 52% 36% 56% +7 +1 1.17 21% 1.3 .27 17% .35 71% .25 0.84 47% 43% 28% -8 +1 0.88 29% 0.7 .20 25% .37 65% .24
Feb
19		 UC Santa Barbara D D- F F F 48% 27% 24% C- F B C+ B A+ B F+ C A A+ A+ C+ A+ 20% 18% 63% B+ A+ B+ B B+ B- F D F
1.02 53% 22% 19% -12 0 0.77 32% 1.1 .36 7% .39 67% .26 1.00 45% 20% 34% -5 -1 0.89 27% 0.9 .25 19% .48 81% .39



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.8 13.9 12.2 27.8 1st
2nd 1.3 13.6 13.9 28.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 11.1 15.8 2.4 29.5 3rd
4th 0.0 2.3 6.3 0.3 8.9 4th
5th 0.1 2.7 0.6 3.4 5th
6th 0.4 0.8 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.3 0.1 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.8 6.1 19.3 31.4 30.2 12.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 12.2    7.2 4.4 0.6
14-6 46.0% 13.9    2.5 7.1 4.1 0.2
13-7 5.6% 1.8    0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 27.8% 27.8 9.7 11.7 5.4 0.9 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 12.2% 23.3% 23.3% 13.2 0.3 1.7 0.9 0.0 9.3
14-6 30.2% 18.9% 18.9% 13.8 0.1 1.8 3.2 0.6 0.0 24.5
13-7 31.4% 11.5% 11.5% 14.0 0.0 0.6 2.2 0.8 0.0 27.8
12-8 19.3% 7.4% 7.4% 14.3 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.0 17.9
11-9 6.1% 2.3% 2.3% 14.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.0
10-10 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 15.0 0.0 0.8
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 13.8 86.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.8% 100.0% 13.2 9.2 58.3 31.1 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.6%
Lose Out 0.4%