UC Riverside
Big West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#158
Expected Predictive Rating+4.8#97
Pace66.7#225
Improvement-0.1#193

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#153
First Shot-1.2#226
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#57
Layup/Dunks-3.0#300
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#33
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#165
Freethrows-1.9#309
Improvement+0.0#201

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#182
First Shot-2.9#270
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#9
Layups/Dunks+0.7#146
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#349
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#115
Freethrows-2.0#318
Improvement+0.0#195
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.6% 8.3% 6.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 99.0% 99.8% 97.2%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.8% 97.2%
Conference Champion 11.9% 15.0% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round7.6% 8.3% 6.1%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Away) - 69.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 23 - 23 - 5
Quad 35 - 48 - 9
Quad 411 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 61   @ Colorado L 66-82 15%     0 - 1 -4.7 -4.1 +0.9
  Nov 10, 2022 91   @ Loyola Marymount W 81-79 23%     1 - 1 +10.2 +6.7 +3.3
  Nov 17, 2022 11   @ Creighton L 51-80 6%     1 - 2 -10.9 -8.7 -4.2
  Nov 21, 2022 213   Weber St. W 72-65 60%     2 - 2 +4.8 +7.5 -1.9
  Nov 22, 2022 201   Wright St. W 70-65 58%     3 - 2 +3.4 -4.7 +8.0
  Nov 23, 2022 218   Abilene Christian W 76-65 60%     4 - 2 +8.7 +2.7 +6.2
  Nov 30, 2022 156   @ California Baptist L 60-65 39%     4 - 3 -1.7 -6.4 +4.4
  Dec 11, 2022 309   @ Idaho W 76-74 71%     5 - 3 -3.3 +3.0 -6.2
  Dec 14, 2022 48   @ Oregon L 65-71 13%     5 - 4 +6.7 -1.6 +8.3
  Dec 20, 2022 216   San Diego L 84-92 OT 70%     5 - 5 -13.0 -0.8 -11.7
  Dec 22, 2022 166   Portland W 76-65 61%     6 - 5 +8.4 +1.0 +7.7
  Dec 29, 2022 308   Cal St. Bakersfield W 71-59 85%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +1.2 +1.7 +0.6
  Dec 31, 2022 165   @ Long Beach St. W 73-72 40%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +3.9 -1.9 +5.8
  Jan 05, 2023 154   Cal St. Fullerton L 62-77 60%     8 - 6 2 - 1 -17.1 -7.5 -10.2
  Jan 07, 2023 328   Cal St. Northridge W 68-45 88%     9 - 6 3 - 1 +10.8 -5.3 +17.4
  Jan 11, 2023 262   @ UC San Diego W 74-68 62%     10 - 6 4 - 1 +3.3 +2.0 +1.5
  Jan 14, 2023 101   @ UC Santa Barbara W 65-64 25%     11 - 6 5 - 1 +8.3 +0.8 +7.5
  Jan 16, 2023 298   Cal Poly W 83-78 OT 84%     12 - 6 6 - 1 -5.3 +9.9 -15.1
  Jan 19, 2023 174   @ UC Davis W 74-72 41%     13 - 6 7 - 1 +4.6 +6.3 -1.5
  Jan 21, 2023 134   Hawaii L 63-67 55%     13 - 7 7 - 2 -4.9 -6.7 +1.7
  Jan 28, 2023 262   UC San Diego W 72-65 79%     14 - 7 8 - 2 -1.1 +1.8 -2.3
  Feb 02, 2023 308   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 66-60 70%    
  Feb 04, 2023 154   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 64-67 38%    
  Feb 09, 2023 174   UC Davis W 74-71 63%    
  Feb 11, 2023 100   @ UC Irvine L 67-74 25%    
  Feb 15, 2023 165   Long Beach St. W 77-74 62%    
  Feb 18, 2023 101   UC Santa Barbara L 66-67 45%    
  Feb 20, 2023 328   @ Cal St. Northridge W 69-62 74%    
  Feb 24, 2023 134   @ Hawaii L 63-67 34%    
  Mar 02, 2023 100   UC Irvine L 70-71 46%    
  Mar 04, 2023 298   @ Cal Poly W 66-61 68%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 4.4 4.5 1.7 0.2 11.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.9 9.0 8.1 1.9 0.1 20.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 11.1 10.2 1.8 0.0 25.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 8.3 8.9 1.4 0.0 19.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 4.3 6.3 1.0 0.0 12.0 5th
6th 0.2 1.8 3.9 1.0 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.8 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.7 10.2 17.8 22.9 21.6 14.3 6.4 1.8 0.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 93.1% 1.7    1.4 0.3 0.0
16-4 70.3% 4.5    2.4 1.8 0.2
15-5 30.5% 4.4    1.1 2.1 1.1 0.1
14-6 5.1% 1.1    0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.9% 11.9 5.1 4.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.2% 17.2% 17.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-3 1.8% 16.2% 16.2% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.5
16-4 6.4% 14.3% 14.3% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.5
15-5 14.3% 11.3% 11.3% 13.5 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.1 12.7
14-6 21.6% 8.1% 8.1% 13.8 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 19.9
13-7 22.9% 6.5% 6.5% 14.1 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 21.4
12-8 17.8% 5.1% 5.1% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 16.9
11-9 10.2% 4.2% 4.2% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 9.8
10-10 3.7% 4.6% 4.6% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.6
9-11 0.9% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.9
8-12 0.1% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.4 1.4 0.1 92.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 17.2% 11.8 5.2 11.2 0.9
Lose Out 0.1% 3.6% 16.0 3.6