UC Riverside
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.5 #291
Expected Predictive Rating -6.8 #274
Pace 68.0 #206
Improvement -0.4 #209

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #285 C- D D C C
Defense #272 D+ C+ D+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #94 1.12 #221 +1.1 #136
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #167 0.76 #174 +0.2 #165
Three Pointers 37% #258 0.98 #225 -2.5 #272
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #211 -1.2 #210
Freethrows 0.30 #182 73% #169 0.22 #173
Second Chance 27.0% #280 0.90 #329 0.24 #326
Turnovers 19.0% #314
Total Offense -4.4 #285

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #39 1.23 #271 -4.9 #334
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #143 0.91 #354 -2.0 #323
Three Pointers 34% #346 1.04 #218 +3.1 #60
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #299 -3.8 #300
Freethrows 0.32 #255 69% #41 0.22 #208
Second Chance 32.1% #248 0.92 #48 0.29 #128
Turnovers 15.1% #278
Total Defense -3.1 #272

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #166 0.6% #222
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.6% #216 6.8% #305
Possession Length 17.9 #249 16.4 #45
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #323 0.19 #259
Improvement -1.8 #286 +1.4 #104

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.4% 1.2% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 32.5% 18.3% 37.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Fullerton (Away) - 24.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 32 - 92 - 16
Quad 46 - 59 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 282 @North Dakota W 74 - 70 36% +5  1 - 0 +0 -3 C F F +3 D- A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 11 45 @New Mexico L 68 - 82 3% -5  1 - 1 +1 +7 A D- D+ -7 C- B- F
 Sat, Nov 15 282 North Dakota L 74 - 76 59% -0  1 - 2 -12 -10 C F F -2 D- A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 18 132 @California Baptist L 57 - 80 13% -15  1 - 3 -18 -17 F+ D+ F +0 C+ B D+
 Fri, Nov 21 201 @San Diego W 85 - 71 22% +10  2 - 3 +14 +15 A+ C+ A- +0 B+ C- C-
 Mon, Nov 24 287 Grambling St. W 83 - 74 61% -1  3 - 3 -1 +8 A D- C- -9 B- C- F
 Sat, Nov 29 210 @Utah Tech L 69 - 77 24% -4  3 - 4 -8 +4 B- C- C- -13 D- D F
 Thu, Dec 4 118 @UC Irvine L 60 - 73 11% -11  3 - 5 0 - 1 -7 -4 F D B+ -4 D- A- D+
 Sat, Dec 6 264 @Cal Poly W 88 - 84 33% +7  4 - 5 1 - 1 +1 +11 C+ C A+ -10 F A D
 Sat, Dec 13 14 @BYU L 53 - 100 1% -22  4 - 6 -25 -15 D+ D F -7 F A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 137 @St. Thomas L 78 - 92 14% -7  4 - 7 -10 +7 B D- C- -17 F C- F
 Tue, Dec 23 35 @UCLA L 65 - 97 2% -14  4 - 8 -15 -7 B- F F -5 B- F+ C-
 Thu, Jan 1 100 Hawaii L 45 - 88 19% -21  4 - 9 1 - 2 -41 -19 F F+ C- -27 F F C
 Thu, Jan 8 319 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 66 - 67 47% -0  4 - 10 1 - 3 -8 -10 C- F F+ +2 A- F B-
 Sat, Jan 10 136 UC San Diego L 66 - 69 29% +1  4 - 11 1 - 4 -5 -1 D B F+ -4 D+ C B
 Thu, Jan 15 255 @Long Beach St. L 73 - 88 31% -10  4 - 12 1 - 5 -17 +1 F B- A+ -19 F C F
 Sat, Jan 17 224 Cal St. Fullerton W 81 - 72 46% +9  5 - 12 2 - 5 +2 -2 B F D +4 A+ C+ B-
 Thu, Jan 22 118 UC Irvine L 66 - 80 23% -10  5 - 13 2 - 6 -14 -3 D C D -11 D- D+ B
 Sat, Jan 24 189 @UC Davis L 66 - 74 21% -10  5 - 14 2 - 7 -7 -5 F+ B- C -2 D- B C+
 Thu, Jan 29 255 Long Beach St. W 71 - 61 53% +0  6 - 14 3 - 7 +2 -5 D C D+ +7 B+ C- A+
 Sat, Jan 31 264 Cal Poly L 87 - 94 55% -2  6 - 15 3 - 8 -16 +3 B- C+ F -19 F C- F+
 Thu, Feb 5 224 @Cal St. Fullerton L 74 - 81 25%
 Sat, Feb 7 187 @Cal St. Northridge L 74 - 83 21%
 Thu, Feb 12 129 UC Santa Barbara L 69 - 75 27%
 Sat, Feb 14 136 @UC San Diego L 65 - 77 13%
 Thu, Feb 19 319 Cal St. Bakersfield W 77 - 72 69%
 Sat, Feb 21 189 UC Davis L 73 - 76 41%
 Thu, Feb 26 129 @UC Santa Barbara L 66 - 78 13%
 Sat, Feb 28 187 Cal St. Northridge L 77 - 80 41%
 Fri, Mar 6 100 @Hawaii L 64 - 79 8%
Totals 9 - 21 6 - 14 -8 -4 C- D D -3 D+ C+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 0.6 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.8 3.7 3.0 0.2 7.7 8th
9th 0.2 2.9 9.8 8.5 1.1 0.0 22.5 9th
10th 0.5 9.3 20.5 14.9 3.0 0.1 48.2 10th
11th 4.2 8.6 4.2 0.6 17.5 11th
Total 4.6 18.0 27.5 26.1 15.5 6.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0% 0.0
10-10 0.3% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 0.3
9-11 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.7
8-12 6.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.2
7-13 15.5% 15.5
6-14 26.1% 26.1
5-15 27.5% 27.5
4-16 18.0% 18.0
3-17 4.6% 4.6
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.9 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.6%