UC San Diego
Big West
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#193
Expected Predictive Rating+0.3#169
Pace71.2#127
Improvement-5.3#358

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#218
First Shot-1.5#215
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#178
Layup/Dunks-0.1#172
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#327
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#271
Freethrows+4.6#4
Improvement-3.9#355

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#166
First Shot+0.1#165
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#176
Layups/Dunks-3.5#285
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#324
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#23
Freethrows+0.7#151
Improvement-1.4#287
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 58.1% 63.8% 40.6%
.500 or above in Conference 60.1% 63.6% 49.5%
Conference Champion 5.0% 5.7% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 4.2% 3.4% 6.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Home) - 75.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 65 - 9
Quad 411 - 515 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 122   @ California W 80-67 24%     1 - 0 +18.9 +10.2 +8.3
  Nov 13, 2021 262   George Washington W 75-55 75%     2 - 0 +11.4 -4.6 +14.7
  Nov 20, 2021 295   @ Sacramento St. W 71-56 61%     3 - 0 +10.7 -2.6 +13.4
  Nov 24, 2021 207   @ Montana L 61-71 41%     3 - 1 -9.0 -7.8 -1.9
  Nov 25, 2021 247   Southern Miss L 55-56 62%     3 - 2 -5.6 -13.7 +8.1
  Dec 02, 2021 260   Eastern Michigan W 77-70 75%    
  Dec 12, 2021 173   @ Seattle L 71-75 36%    
  Dec 15, 2021 326   @ Denver W 73-67 70%    
  Dec 22, 2021 48   @ San Diego St. L 57-71 10%    
  Dec 30, 2021 118   UC Santa Barbara L 68-69 45%    
  Jan 01, 2022 271   Cal St. Northridge W 71-63 76%    
  Jan 06, 2022 139   @ UC Riverside L 63-69 29%    
  Jan 08, 2022 212   @ UC Davis L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 11, 2022 74   @ UC Irvine L 60-71 17%    
  Jan 16, 2022 188   @ Hawaii L 69-72 38%    
  Jan 20, 2022 297   Long Beach St. W 81-72 80%    
  Jan 22, 2022 208   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 69-71 41%    
  Jan 27, 2022 316   Cal Poly W 71-61 83%    
  Jan 29, 2022 206   Cal St. Bakersfield W 68-64 61%    
  Feb 03, 2022 271   @ Cal St. Northridge W 68-66 56%    
  Feb 05, 2022 118   @ UC Santa Barbara L 65-72 26%    
  Feb 10, 2022 212   UC Davis W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 12, 2022 139   UC Riverside L 65-66 48%    
  Feb 15, 2022 74   UC Irvine L 63-68 33%    
  Feb 17, 2022 188   Hawaii W 72-69 59%    
  Feb 24, 2022 297   @ Long Beach St. W 78-75 60%    
  Feb 26, 2022 208   Cal St. Fullerton W 72-68 63%    
  Mar 03, 2022 206   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 65-67 43%    
  Mar 05, 2022 316   @ Cal Poly W 68-64 66%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.0 1st
2nd 0.6 2.0 3.0 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 9.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 3.2 4.6 2.6 0.6 0.1 12.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.7 5.1 2.0 0.5 0.0 13.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 4.3 5.2 2.2 0.2 0.0 13.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.6 5.2 1.5 0.1 13.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 4.3 4.2 1.5 0.1 11.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.0 3.7 1.0 0.1 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.6 2.3 0.8 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.4 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 2.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.6 3.2 4.9 7.5 10.4 11.0 12.3 12.2 11.3 8.9 6.7 4.1 2.5 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 96.4% 0.6    0.6 0.0
17-3 78.8% 1.0    0.8 0.3 0.0
16-4 52.3% 1.3    0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 27.9% 1.1    0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.0% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1
13-7 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 2.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 0.1
18-2 0.7% 0.7
17-3 1.3% 1.3
16-4 2.5% 2.5
15-5 4.1% 4.1
14-6 6.7% 6.7
13-7 8.9% 8.9
12-8 11.3% 11.3
11-9 12.2% 12.2
10-10 12.3% 12.3
9-11 11.0% 11.0
8-12 10.4% 10.4
7-13 7.5% 7.5
6-14 4.9% 4.9
5-15 3.2% 3.2
4-16 1.6% 1.6
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%