UC San Diego
Big West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.6#102
Expected Predictive Rating+8.0#80
Pace64.2#310
Improvement+1.7#76

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#95
First Shot+4.6#60
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#275
Layup/Dunks+0.6#160
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#358
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.1#20
Freethrows+1.2#112
Improvement+1.6#66

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#120
First Shot-0.2#178
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#63
Layups/Dunks+6.3#25
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#219
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#349
Freethrows-0.1#201
Improvement+0.1#165
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.0% 20.8% 14.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 12.4
.500 or above 97.9% 98.6% 93.5%
.500 or above in Conference 96.0% 97.1% 88.6%
Conference Champion 25.5% 27.4% 12.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round19.9% 20.7% 14.7%
Second Round3.8% 4.0% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.0% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Bakersfield (Home) - 87.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 12 - 4
Quad 38 - 410 - 8
Quad 412 - 222 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 37   @ San Diego St. L 58-63 16%     0 - 1 +10.1 -1.6 +11.4
  Nov 09, 2024 258   Pepperdine W 94-76 88%     1 - 1 +9.6 +14.9 -5.8
  Nov 12, 2024 320   Sacramento St. W 64-54 93%     2 - 1 -1.9 -5.2 +4.4
  Nov 16, 2024 123   Seattle L 71-84 69%     2 - 2 -13.7 +3.9 -18.6
  Nov 21, 2024 143   La Salle W 72-67 64%     3 - 2 +6.0 -1.6 +7.5
  Nov 22, 2024 114   James Madison W 73-67 55%     4 - 2 +9.3 +11.0 -0.9
  Nov 23, 2024 203   Toledo W 80-45 73%     5 - 2 +33.1 +6.2 +28.1
  Dec 05, 2024 126   @ UC Santa Barbara W 84-76 48%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +13.1 +14.4 -1.1
  Dec 07, 2024 244   Cal St. Bakersfield W 73-61 87%    
  Dec 15, 2024 265   @ Idaho W 74-66 75%    
  Dec 17, 2024 52   @ Utah St. L 68-76 22%    
  Dec 21, 2024 312   @ San Diego W 75-65 82%    
  Jan 04, 2025 307   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 71-62 80%    
  Jan 09, 2025 228   Cal Poly W 82-71 85%    
  Jan 11, 2025 57   UC Irvine L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 16, 2025 304   @ Long Beach St. W 71-62 79%    
  Jan 18, 2025 175   @ UC Riverside W 70-68 58%    
  Jan 23, 2025 126   UC Santa Barbara W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 25, 2025 155   Cal St. Northridge W 77-70 74%    
  Jan 31, 2025 162   @ Hawaii W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 06, 2025 175   UC Riverside W 73-65 77%    
  Feb 08, 2025 57   @ UC Irvine L 64-72 24%    
  Feb 13, 2025 244   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 204   UC Davis W 75-65 80%    
  Feb 20, 2025 228   @ Cal Poly W 79-74 68%    
  Feb 22, 2025 162   Hawaii W 72-64 76%    
  Feb 27, 2025 155   @ Cal St. Northridge W 74-73 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 307   Cal St. Fullerton W 74-59 91%    
  Mar 06, 2025 304   Long Beach St. W 74-59 91%    
  Mar 08, 2025 204   @ UC Davis W 72-68 62%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.1 5.8 7.3 5.5 2.4 0.5 25.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 3.9 8.9 10.7 8.1 3.4 0.6 36.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 3.8 6.2 4.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 17.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.7 2.1 0.5 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.3 5th
6th 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.9 6.1 9.5 12.5 14.6 15.6 14.2 10.7 6.2 2.4 0.5 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 2.4    2.2 0.1
18-2 90.2% 5.5    4.6 1.0
17-3 68.0% 7.3    5.1 2.1 0.0
16-4 41.3% 5.8    3.1 2.5 0.3 0.0
15-5 20.0% 3.1    1.2 1.4 0.5 0.1
14-6 5.2% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 25.5% 25.5 16.9 7.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 63.5% 55.4% 8.0% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 18.0%
19-1 2.4% 45.9% 44.1% 1.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.3 3.2%
18-2 6.2% 37.6% 37.3% 0.3% 11.7 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.1 3.8 0.5%
17-3 10.7% 33.5% 33.5% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.6 2.6 0.4 0.0 7.1 0.1%
16-4 14.2% 28.6% 28.5% 0.0% 12.2 0.3 2.8 0.9 0.1 10.1 0.0%
15-5 15.6% 23.1% 23.1% 12.4 0.1 2.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 12.0
14-6 14.6% 16.0% 16.0% 12.6 0.0 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 12.3
13-7 12.5% 11.8% 11.8% 12.8 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 11.0
12-8 9.5% 8.0% 8.0% 13.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 8.7
11-9 6.1% 5.4% 5.4% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.7
10-10 3.9% 3.3% 3.3% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.8
9-11 2.2% 0.6% 0.6% 14.0 0.0 2.2
8-12 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 1.1
7-13 0.4% 0.4
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 20.0% 19.9% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.4 11.2 4.9 1.0 0.1 80.0 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 6.3 5.1 10.3 28.2 28.2 5.1 5.1 7.7 10.3