UC San Diego
Big West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.2#98
Expected Predictive Rating+14.3#32
Pace68.3#224
Improvement+1.6#67

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#72
First Shot+6.1#35
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#299
Layup/Dunks+2.0#108
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#261
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.1#13
Freethrows-1.5#270
Improvement+2.9#14

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#138
First Shot+5.0#46
After Offensive Rebounds-4.1#349
Layups/Dunks+4.8#43
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#72
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#292
Freethrows+1.6#93
Improvement-1.2#291
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.2% 39.5% 31.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.2 11.9 12.4
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 97.8% 98.6% 97.2%
Conference Champion 46.9% 53.0% 42.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round35.0% 39.3% 31.8%
Second Round5.8% 7.2% 4.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.7% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nevada (Away) - 43.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 22 - 2
Quad 39 - 311 - 5
Quad 414 - 225 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 277 Houston Christian W 78-60 91%     1 - 0 +8.7 +1.5 +7.3
  Wed, Nov 12 154 @Fresno St. W 78-73 59%     2 - 0 +7.9 +6.3 +1.5
  Sat, Nov 15 212 Idaho W 75-67 86%     3 - 0 +1.7 -2.4 +4.1
  Mon, Nov 24 147 Temple W 91-76 69%     4 - 0 +15.0 +16.3 -0.9
  Tue, Nov 25 116 Bradley W 87-77 58%     5 - 0 +13.2 +15.8 -2.6
  Wed, Nov 26 129 Towson W 87-73 62%     6 - 0 +16.1 +24.0 -6.6
  Tue, Dec 2 110 @Nevada L 73-75 43%    
  Sat, Dec 6 298 @Long Beach St. W 79-69 82%    
  Sun, Dec 14 153 Tulane W 79-74 68%    
  Tue, Dec 16 128 @Loyola Marymount W 72-71 51%    
  Fri, Dec 19 245 San Diego W 85-72 88%    
  Thu, Jan 1 240 @Cal Poly W 86-79 73%    
  Sat, Jan 3 112 Hawaii W 76-71 66%    
  Thu, Jan 8 323 Cal St. Fullerton W 91-74 94%    
  Sat, Jan 10 257 @UC Riverside W 77-70 75%    
  Thu, Jan 15 280 Cal St. Northridge W 87-72 91%    
  Sat, Jan 17 272 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 79-71 77%    
  Thu, Jan 22 175 @UC Davis W 74-70 63%    
  Sat, Jan 24 134 UC Irvine W 74-68 71%    
  Thu, Jan 29 145 UC Santa Barbara W 78-70 76%    
  Sat, Jan 31 280 @Cal St. Northridge W 84-75 78%    
  Thu, Feb 5 298 Long Beach St. W 82-66 92%    
  Sun, Feb 8 112 @Hawaii L 73-74 45%    
  Thu, Feb 12 175 UC Davis W 77-67 80%    
  Sat, Feb 14 257 UC Riverside W 80-67 89%    
  Sat, Feb 21 134 @UC Irvine W 71-70 51%    
  Thu, Feb 26 272 Cal St. Bakersfield W 82-68 90%    
  Sat, Feb 28 240 Cal Poly W 89-76 87%    
  Thu, Mar 5 323 @Cal St. Fullerton W 88-77 83%    
  Sat, Mar 7 145 @UC Santa Barbara W 75-73 56%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.9 9.8 12.8 10.4 5.7 1.7 46.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.5 7.9 5.6 2.0 0.2 23.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.5 4.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.0 2.2 0.8 0.1 7.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.0 4.0 6.6 9.3 12.3 14.8 15.8 14.8 10.6 5.7 1.7 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
19-1 100.0% 5.7    5.6 0.1
18-2 97.7% 10.4    9.5 0.8
17-3 86.2% 12.8    10.1 2.6 0.1
16-4 61.9% 9.8    5.8 3.4 0.5 0.0
15-5 33.1% 4.9    2.1 2.0 0.7 0.1
14-6 11.8% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 46.9% 46.9 35.3 9.7 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.7% 70.1% 64.9% 5.2% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.5 14.9%
19-1 5.7% 62.1% 60.3% 1.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 2.2 4.4%
18-2 10.6% 55.0% 54.8% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 1.6 3.6 0.6 0.0 4.8 0.5%
17-3 14.8% 47.7% 47.6% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.9 4.5 1.5 0.1 0.0 7.7 0.2%
16-4 15.8% 42.3% 42.3% 12.4 0.0 0.4 3.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.1
15-5 14.8% 32.3% 32.3% 12.6 0.1 2.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 10.0
14-6 12.3% 24.5% 24.5% 12.8 0.0 0.9 1.6 0.5 0.0 9.3
13-7 9.3% 17.5% 17.5% 13.2 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 7.7
12-8 6.6% 12.4% 12.4% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 5.8
11-9 4.0% 8.8% 8.8% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.7
10-10 2.0% 6.9% 6.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.9
9-11 1.2% 5.7% 5.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
8-12 0.6% 2.2% 2.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.6
7-13 0.3% 0.3
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 35.2% 34.9% 0.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 5.3 16.8 9.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 64.8 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 7.5 1.9 5.8 12.6 15.5 16.5 7.8 17.5 11.7 10.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 31.0% 10.4 6.9 3.4 20.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 17.2% 10.4 3.4 3.4 10.3