Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
206 Tennessee Martin 32.7%   16   17 - 7 12 - 4 -2.7      -4.0 277 +1.3 133 63.9 305 +0.2 153 -1.4 1
229 Southeast Missouri St. 15.8%   13 - 11 11 - 5 -3.8      -3.7 270 -0.1 171 72.2 83 -4.5 239 -3.7 3
236 SIU Edwardsville 13.0%   14 - 10 10 - 6 -4.2      -5.8 318 +1.6 127 63.1 326 -4.9 247 -4.5 6
250 Tennessee St. 13.3%   14 - 9 11 - 5 -4.8      -0.8 185 -4.1 298 74.9 35 -2.6 210 -4.2 4
257 Lindenwood 12.3%   13 - 11 10 - 6 -5.3      -4.8 301 -0.5 186 79.1 9 -4.5 240 -4.5 5
289 Morehead St. 10.0%   12 - 12 11 - 5 -7.3      -1.7 214 -5.6 323 64.6 288 -4.4 238 -2.2 2
302 Arkansas Little Rock 1.9%   8 - 17 7 - 9 -8.1      -4.3 284 -3.8 287 66.5 240 -9.1 311 -8.7 7
318 Tennessee Tech 0.2%   8 - 16 6 - 10 -9.9      -3.9 275 -6.0 331 68.7 179 -10.6 327 -11.5 9
320 Eastern Illinois 0.7%   8 - 16 7 - 9 -10.0      -9.4 357 -0.7 196 65.6 261 -9.3 315 -9.0 8
340 Southern Indiana 0.0%   3 - 21 2 - 14 -12.2      -9.7 358 -2.5 253 68.8 172 -18.5 357 -19.3 10
362 Western Illinois 0.0%   2 - 22 1 - 15 -17.5      -10.6 359 -6.9 346 65.8 256 -19.1 359 -21.6 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Feb 12 257 Lindenwood 75 206 Tennessee Martin 74   
Thu, Feb 12 340 Southern Indiana 71 250 Tennessee St. 73   
Thu, Feb 12 236 SIU Edwardsville 74 229 Southeast Missouri St. 56   
Thu, Feb 12 289 Morehead St. 73 318 Tennessee Tech 66   
Thu, Feb 12 302 Arkansas Little Rock 77 362 Western Illinois 58   
Sat, Feb 14 257 Lindenwood 61 229 Southeast Missouri St. 73   
Sat, Feb 14 236 SIU Edwardsville 76 206 Tennessee Martin 81   
Sat, Feb 14 320 Eastern Illinois 78 302 Arkansas Little Rock 72   
Sat, Feb 14 340 Southern Indiana 74 318 Tennessee Tech 82   
Sat, Feb 14 289 Morehead St. 94 250 Tennessee St. 86   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Tue, Feb 17 229 Southeast Missouri St. 67 206 Tennessee Martin 71 65%   
Thu, Feb 19 257 Lindenwood 81 250 Tennessee St. 84 63%   
Thu, Feb 19 302 Arkansas Little Rock 66 206 Tennessee Martin 69 59%   
Thu, Feb 19 320 Eastern Illinois 69 289 Morehead St. 68 51%   
Thu, Feb 19 236 SIU Edwardsville 70 318 Tennessee Tech 67 60%   
Thu, Feb 19 340 Southern Indiana 69 362 Western Illinois 66 59%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Tennessee Martin 1.2 88.2 6.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 0.2
Southeast Missouri St. 3.4 10.7 19.9 24.0 21.0 17.1 7.3
SIU Edwardsville 3.4 6.7 25.8 24.3 17.7 15.3 10.1 0.1
Tennessee St. 3.6 9.1 20.0 21.8 15.5 17.4 16.2
Lindenwood 3.8 4.9 20.2 21.7 18.3 17.6 17.1 0.2
Morehead St. 2.3 23.7 43.7 16.9 8.2 5.3 2.2
Arkansas Little Rock 7.2 0.1 0.5 3.7 73.2 19.9 2.6
Tennessee Tech 8.6 0.1 7.9 21.9 70.2
Eastern Illinois 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.9 44.4 47.4 5.9
Southern Indiana 10.1 0.4 90.3 9.3
Western Illinois 10.7 26.2 73.8

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Tennessee Martin 15 - 5 20 - 8 1.2 8.7 26.6 39.6 23.9
Southeast Missouri St. 13 - 6 15 - 12 6.6 33.5 43.4 16.4
SIU Edwardsville 13 - 7 17 - 11 0.4 7.5 30.4 42.5 19.2
Tennessee St. 13 - 6 16 - 10 10.8 36.4 39.7 13.1
Lindenwood 12 - 8 15 - 13 1.8 12.3 34.6 37.8 13.5
Morehead St. 13 - 7 14 - 14 2.2 13.6 35.8 35.1 13.3
Arkansas Little Rock 9 - 11 10 - 19 4.2 20.1 37.3 29.4 8.9
Tennessee Tech 7 - 13 9 - 19 23.8 40.7 27.0 7.6 1.0
Eastern Illinois 9 - 11 10 - 18 10.6 35.4 36.8 15.1 2.2
Southern Indiana 3 - 17 4 - 24 17.2 39.8 30.9 10.7 1.4
Western Illinois 2 - 18 3 - 25 33.8 44.2 18.3 3.4 0.2

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Tennessee Martin 88.2% 62.7 16.2 6.9 1.8 0.5 0.1
Southeast Missouri St. 10.7% 0.7 3.8 4.0 1.5 0.5 0.1
SIU Edwardsville 6.7% 0.5 2.6 2.2 0.9 0.4 0.1
Tennessee St. 9.1% 1.1 3.9 2.8 0.7 0.4 0.1
Lindenwood 4.9% 0.3 1.7 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1
Morehead St. 23.7% 5.2 10.5 5.9 1.6 0.4 0.1
Arkansas Little Rock
Tennessee Tech
Eastern Illinois
Southern Indiana
Western Illinois


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Tennessee Martin 32.7% 32.7% 0.0% 16   1.0 8.3 16.8 6.7 67.3 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 15.8% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 5.5 9.6 84.2 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 13.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.4 4.0 8.7 87.0 0.0%
Tennessee St. 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 5.2 7.5 86.7 0.0%
Lindenwood 12.3% 12.3% 0.0% 0.2 3.5 8.6 87.7 0.0%
Morehead St. 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 9.1 90.0 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 1.9 98.1 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7 99.3 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 88.2% 0.9 11.8 88.2
2nd Round 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Tennessee Martin 32.7% 1.0% 32.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 15.8% 3.7% 14.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 13.0% 3.5% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 13.3% 2.4% 12.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindenwood 12.3% 3.8% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 10.0% 5.7% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 1.9% 1.9% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%