Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
217 Tennessee Martin 23.3%   17 - 9 12 - 6 -3.2      -4.9 300 +1.7 127 63.2 325 -1.8 188 -3.7 3
227 Southeast Missouri St. 25.3%   16   14 - 11 12 - 5 -3.6      -4.5 289 +0.9 147 71.9 91 -3.7 222 -2.7 2
246 Tennessee St. 17.1%   15 - 9 12 - 5 -4.6      -0.7 178 -3.9 289 74.9 32 -2.3 204 -3.7 4
249 SIU Edwardsville 9.5%   14 - 11 10 - 7 -4.8      -6.7 338 +1.9 119 63.3 323 -5.5 253 -5.4 6
260 Lindenwood 8.2%   13 - 12 10 - 7 -5.6      -5.0 304 -0.7 193 79.5 9 -4.9 246 -5.1 5
286 Morehead St. 13.3%   13 - 12 12 - 5 -7.2      -1.3 203 -5.8 329 64.7 282 -4.0 230 -1.8 1
299 Arkansas Little Rock 2.1%   9 - 17 8 - 9 -7.9      -3.9 276 -4.0 297 66.1 248 -8.4 302 -7.9 7
314 Tennessee Tech 0.5%   9 - 16 7 - 10 -9.4      -4.4 285 -5.0 313 68.9 167 -9.9 320 -10.5 9
321 Eastern Illinois 0.7%   8 - 17 7 - 10 -10.2      -9.3 356 -0.9 196 65.8 258 -10.0 322 -9.8 8
341 Southern Indiana 0.0%   4 - 21 3 - 14 -12.1      -9.2 355 -2.9 258 68.8 172 -17.1 357 -17.4 10
362 Western Illinois 0.0%   2 - 23 1 - 16 -17.7      -10.2 359 -7.5 354 65.8 255 -20.0 361 -22.7 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Feb 17 227 Southeast Missouri St. 56 217 Tennessee Martin 53   
Thu, Feb 19 299 Arkansas Little Rock 67 217 Tennessee Martin 65   
Thu, Feb 19 260 Lindenwood 80 246 Tennessee St. 89   
Thu, Feb 19 249 SIU Edwardsville 52 314 Tennessee Tech 62   
Thu, Feb 19 321 Eastern Illinois 70 286 Morehead St. 73   
Thu, Feb 19 341 Southern Indiana 77 362 Western Illinois 70   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 21 249 SIU Edwardsville 70 246 Tennessee St. 73 62%   
Sat, Feb 21 299 Arkansas Little Rock 71 227 Southeast Missouri St. 73 55%   
Sat, Feb 21 260 Lindenwood 78 314 Tennessee Tech 77 53%   
Sat, Feb 21 321 Eastern Illinois 68 341 Southern Indiana 63 68%   
Sat, Feb 21 286 Morehead St. 75 362 Western Illinois 68 77%   
Tue, Feb 24 286 Morehead St. 75 341 Southern Indiana 67 78%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Tennessee Martin 2.4 28.5 29.2 24.4 14.5 2.9 0.6
Southeast Missouri St. 1.7 60.2 18.9 13.6 5.6 1.3 0.3
Tennessee St. 2.8 28.4 17.5 20.7 19.5 9.8 4.1
SIU Edwardsville 4.7 0.4 4.7 13.7 17.1 35.5 28.4 0.2
Lindenwood 4.6 0.2 3.3 13.2 21.9 38.2 22.7 0.6
Morehead St. 1.7 55.4 26.3 13.8 3.0 1.3 0.2
Arkansas Little Rock 6.9 0.9 8.1 86.7 4.0 0.4
Tennessee Tech 8.3 0.1 9.7 49.8 40.4
Eastern Illinois 8.1 0.0 0.5 14.0 62.3 23.2
Southern Indiana 10.0 99.8 0.2
Western Illinois 11.0 3.2 96.8

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Tennessee Martin 13 - 7 18 - 10 7.3 39.3 53.4
Southeast Missouri St. 14 - 6 16 - 12 3.7 22.6 44.4 29.3
Tennessee St. 13 - 7 16 - 11 17.1 42.4 31.8 8.7
SIU Edwardsville 12 - 8 16 - 12 1.1 16.6 54.3 28.0
Lindenwood 12 - 8 15 - 13 2.7 18.6 45.5 33.2
Morehead St. 14 - 6 15 - 13 3.7 23.1 47.8 25.5
Arkansas Little Rock 10 - 10 11 - 18 6.3 29.5 43.1 21.1
Tennessee Tech 8 - 12 10 - 18 34.9 45.1 17.6 2.4
Eastern Illinois 8 - 12 9 - 19 20.5 50.3 25.4 3.9
Southern Indiana 4 - 16 5 - 23 40.3 41.6 15.8 2.3
Western Illinois 2 - 18 3 - 25 57.7 34.8 7.1 0.4

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Tennessee Martin 28.5% 2.0 10.0 13.6 2.7 0.2 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 60.2% 24.2 18.5 14.5 2.7 0.2 0.0
Tennessee St. 28.4% 8.0 8.8 8.8 2.6 0.2 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0
Lindenwood 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Morehead St. 55.4% 16.9 19.1 16.5 2.7 0.2 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock
Tennessee Tech
Eastern Illinois
Southern Indiana
Western Illinois


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Tennessee Martin 23.3% 23.3% 0.0% 0.1 3.5 13.0 6.7 76.7 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 25.3% 25.3% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.9 9.2 15.2 74.8 0.0%
Tennessee St. 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 5.9 10.6 82.9 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 0.1 2.4 7.0 90.5 0.0%
Lindenwood 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.1 2.4 5.7 91.8 0.0%
Morehead St. 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0 1.2 12.1 86.7 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 2.1 97.9 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7 99.3 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 86.2% 0.9 13.8 86.2
2nd Round 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.5
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Tennessee Martin 23.3% 1.3% 22.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 25.3% 5.5% 22.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 17.1% 3.7% 15.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 9.5% 3.2% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindenwood 8.2% 2.3% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 13.3% 7.6% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 2.1% 2.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%