Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
202 Tennessee Martin 33.5%   16   14 - 5 9 - 2 -2.6      -3.7 265 +1.1 136 64.8 288 +1.7 136 +0.9 1
237 Southeast Missouri St. 12.7%   10 - 10 8 - 4 -4.3      -3.7 268 -0.6 190 72.6 79 -5.2 247 -4.6 5
239 Lindenwood 16.6%   11 - 9 8 - 4 -4.5      -4.6 291 +0.1 154 79.3 8 -3.6 221 -3.7 3
242 Tennessee St. 15.5%   11 - 8 8 - 4 -4.6      -1.3 203 -3.3 277 74.9 37 -2.1 198 -4.0 4
253 SIU Edwardsville 10.4%   11 - 9 7 - 5 -5.3      -6.5 334 +1.3 131 62.2 341 -6.0 260 -6.2 7
292 Arkansas Little Rock 4.5%   7 - 13 6 - 5 -7.6      -3.5 262 -4.1 294 66.5 240 -7.3 287 -5.7 6
297 Morehead St. 5.4%   9 - 11 8 - 4 -8.0      -2.2 232 -5.8 332 64.9 284 -5.6 255 -3.3 2
321 Eastern Illinois 0.8%   6 - 14 5 - 7 -9.9      -9.0 355 -0.9 203 65.3 267 -9.4 319 -9.0 8
322 Tennessee Tech 0.6%   6 - 14 4 - 8 -10.1      -4.8 300 -5.3 322 69.1 170 -10.2 327 -11.2 9
333 Southern Indiana 0.1%   3 - 17 2 - 10 -10.6      -9.8 358 -0.8 199 70.1 144 -17.0 355 -17.6 10
362 Western Illinois 0.0%   1 - 19 0 - 12 -16.2      -10.3 360 -5.9 335 65.1 278 -21.1 363 -23.0 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 31 239 Lindenwood 79 297 Morehead St. 78   
Sat, Jan 31 253 SIU Edwardsville 58 333 Southern Indiana 46   
Sat, Jan 31 292 Arkansas Little Rock 77 322 Tennessee Tech 87   
Sat, Jan 31 321 Eastern Illinois 59 237 Southeast Missouri St. 77   
Sat, Jan 31 202 Tennessee Martin 84 362 Western Illinois 44   
Mon, Feb 2 242 Tennessee St. 85 322 Tennessee Tech 90   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Tue, Feb 3 239 Lindenwood 71 253 SIU Edwardsville 67 65%   
Tue, Feb 3 292 Arkansas Little Rock 65 202 Tennessee Martin 73 78%   
Thu, Feb 5 239 Lindenwood 77 292 Arkansas Little Rock 76 51%   
Thu, Feb 5 297 Morehead St. 71 237 Southeast Missouri St. 77 74%   
Thu, Feb 5 321 Eastern Illinois 68 242 Tennessee St. 76 79%   
Thu, Feb 5 333 Southern Indiana 60 202 Tennessee Martin 71 85%   
Thu, Feb 5 322 Tennessee Tech 75 362 Western Illinois 66 81%   
Sat, Feb 7 292 Arkansas Little Rock 67 253 SIU Edwardsville 66 53%   
Sat, Feb 7 321 Eastern Illinois 67 322 Tennessee Tech 70 61%   
Sat, Feb 7 297 Morehead St. 65 202 Tennessee Martin 74 79%   
Sat, Feb 7 237 Southeast Missouri St. 75 333 Southern Indiana 66 81%   
Sat, Feb 7 242 Tennessee St. 81 362 Western Illinois 67 91%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Tennessee Martin 1.3 81.5 10.5 4.2 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1
Southeast Missouri St. 3.9 6.0 19.3 20.4 19.0 15.7 11.7 7.0 0.9 0.1
Lindenwood 2.9 17.4 33.7 18.4 12.8 8.9 5.5 2.8 0.6 0.1
Tennessee St. 3.3 9.8 26.4 22.8 17.3 12.3 7.8 3.2 0.5 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 4.5 4.0 13.7 15.8 16.5 17.4 17.6 11.8 3.0 0.2
Arkansas Little Rock 5.4 2.5 6.7 9.6 11.9 15.1 18.3 25.2 9.0 1.7 0.1
Morehead St. 4.1 5.8 17.1 18.8 17.4 17.2 13.8 8.1 1.6 0.2
Eastern Illinois 7.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.4 7.4 17.7 45.3 21.5 2.4
Tennessee Tech 8.5 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.5 8.0 32.1 48.9 7.2 0.1
Southern Indiana 9.8 0.1 0.5 4.7 17.1 72.8 4.9
Western Illinois 10.9 0.1 0.6 12.1 87.3

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Tennessee Martin 15 - 5 20 - 8 0.1 0.8 3.7 9.3 18.4 25.6 24.8 13.3 4.0
Southeast Missouri St. 12 - 7 14 - 13 0.2 2.6 10.1 21.6 29.8 23.8 9.9 2.2
Lindenwood 13 - 7 16 - 12 0.1 1.2 4.4 11.8 21.3 26.9 20.8 11.0 2.5
Tennessee St. 12 - 7 15 - 11 0.1 1.2 5.6 16.7 28.0 28.1 16.4 4.0
SIU Edwardsville 12 - 8 16 - 12 0.1 1.2 6.3 16.4 25.7 25.2 17.2 6.8 1.2
Arkansas Little Rock 11 - 9 12 - 17 0.3 1.9 6.7 15.0 22.4 23.6 17.7 9.1 2.9 0.5
Morehead St. 12 - 8 13 - 15 0.7 4.2 12.6 23.3 25.8 20.8 9.8 2.5 0.5
Eastern Illinois 8 - 12 9 - 19 1.6 7.4 18.6 26.7 24.4 14.4 5.6 1.2 0.1
Tennessee Tech 7 - 13 9 - 19 1.1 7.7 19.3 27.2 24.1 14.0 5.3 1.2 0.1
Southern Indiana 5 - 15 6 - 22 3.5 12.8 24.6 26.6 19.6 9.3 3.1 0.5 0.1
Western Illinois 2 - 18 3 - 25 12.5 26.5 29.5 20.0 8.1 2.9 0.5 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Tennessee Martin 81.5% 65.2 12.1 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 6.0% 1.6 2.2 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Lindenwood 17.4% 6.8 7.4 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
Tennessee St. 9.8% 2.9 4.1 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 4.0% 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 2.5% 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Morehead St. 5.8% 1.8 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
Eastern Illinois 0.0% 0.0
Tennessee Tech
Southern Indiana
Western Illinois


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Tennessee Martin 33.5% 33.5% 0.0% 16   0.2 1.5 7.6 18.1 6.2 66.6 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 3.8 8.4 87.3 0.0%
Lindenwood 16.6% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 5.6 10.2 83.5 0.0%
Tennessee St. 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 6.0 8.5 84.5 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 0.3 2.0 8.2 89.6 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.3 4.2 95.5 0.0%
Morehead St. 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 5.1 94.6 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 89.0% 0.9 11.0 89.0
2nd Round 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Tennessee Martin 33.5% 0.9% 33.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 12.7% 3.5% 11.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindenwood 16.6% 3.6% 15.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 15.5% 2.8% 14.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 10.4% 4.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 4.5% 3.4% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 5.4% 3.4% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%