Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
218 Tennessee Martin 29.1%   16   16 - 6 11 - 3 -3.0      -4.9 303 +1.9 115 63.8 311 +0.4 152 -1.1 1
229 Southeast Missouri St. 15.8%   12 - 10 10 - 4 -3.7      -3.0 252 -0.7 194 72.7 74 -4.8 238 -3.9 4
234 Tennessee St. 15.3%   13 - 8 10 - 4 -4.2      -1.1 195 -3.1 270 74.9 35 -1.9 202 -3.6 3
241 SIU Edwardsville 15.4%   13 - 9 9 - 5 -4.6      -6.3 329 +1.7 120 62.9 327 -4.7 237 -4.0 5
243 Lindenwood 15.1%   12 - 10 9 - 5 -4.6      -4.2 281 -0.4 185 79.5 9 -4.0 228 -4.1 6
292 Morehead St. 6.2%   10 - 12 9 - 5 -7.6      -2.3 234 -5.3 322 64.7 283 -4.9 242 -2.7 2
301 Arkansas Little Rock 1.8%   7 - 16 6 - 8 -8.0      -4.2 282 -3.8 291 66.0 250 -8.8 307 -8.2 7
317 Eastern Illinois 1.0%   7 - 15 6 - 8 -9.5      -9.4 356 -0.1 175 65.0 278 -8.8 305 -8.3 8
321 Tennessee Tech 0.2%   7 - 15 5 - 9 -10.0      -4.4 286 -5.6 326 69.0 173 -11.0 332 -12.2 9
343 Southern Indiana 0.0%   3 - 19 2 - 12 -11.7      -10.0 359 -1.7 227 69.6 152 -17.4 356 -17.9 10
362 Western Illinois 0.0%   1 - 21 0 - 14 -17.4      -10.1 360 -7.3 352 64.7 284 -21.6 364 -23.5 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Feb 7 292 Morehead St. 61 218 Tennessee Martin 55   
Sat, Feb 7 229 Southeast Missouri St. 90 343 Southern Indiana 65   
Sat, Feb 7 317 Eastern Illinois 60 321 Tennessee Tech 54   
Sat, Feb 7 301 Arkansas Little Rock 61 241 SIU Edwardsville 71   
Sat, Feb 7 234 Tennessee St. 83 362 Western Illinois 56   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Tue, Feb 10 317 Eastern Illinois 67 362 Western Illinois 62 68%   
Thu, Feb 12 241 SIU Edwardsville 69 229 Southeast Missouri St. 67 58%   
Thu, Feb 12 243 Lindenwood 72 218 Tennessee Martin 70 55%   
Thu, Feb 12 292 Morehead St. 77 321 Tennessee Tech 71 70%   
Thu, Feb 12 343 Southern Indiana 72 234 Tennessee St. 77 67%   
Thu, Feb 12 301 Arkansas Little Rock 72 362 Western Illinois 66 73%   
Sat, Feb 14 243 Lindenwood 80 229 Southeast Missouri St. 78 58%   
Sat, Feb 14 241 SIU Edwardsville 62 218 Tennessee Martin 61 56%   
Sat, Feb 14 292 Morehead St. 77 234 Tennessee St. 78 52%   
Sat, Feb 14 317 Eastern Illinois 67 301 Arkansas Little Rock 65 56%   
Sat, Feb 14 343 Southern Indiana 72 321 Tennessee Tech 71 55%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Tennessee Martin 1.5 73.5 13.0 7.3 3.5 1.9 0.8 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 3.5 12.5 19.3 20.0 17.8 16.8 12.2 1.4 0.1
Tennessee St. 3.2 17.1 23.8 19.0 15.3 13.7 10.4 0.7
SIU Edwardsville 3.2 16.5 23.8 20.4 15.5 13.3 9.3 1.2 0.1 0.0
Lindenwood 3.3 14.8 22.1 19.0 17.0 14.1 11.3 1.6 0.1
Morehead St. 3.6 9.9 21.6 19.9 18.1 15.6 12.5 2.3 0.2 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 7.1 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.3 11.6 49.9 28.2 3.7 0.1
Eastern Illinois 7.4 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.8 7.7 40.2 41.6 6.5 0.1
Tennessee Tech 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 4.9 20.8 69.6 4.1
Southern Indiana 9.9 0.2 1.5 12.0 83.0 3.3
Western Illinois 10.9 0.1 10.3 89.7

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Tennessee Martin 15 - 5 20 - 8 0.6 4.3 14.9 27.1 30.0 18.3 4.9
Southeast Missouri St. 13 - 6 15 - 12 2.5 14.2 30.8 31.6 17.1 3.8
Tennessee St. 13 - 6 16 - 10 2.0 11.2 26.0 32.9 22.1 5.8
SIU Edwardsville 13 - 7 17 - 11 0.2 2.4 10.8 25.3 32.5 22.3 6.5
Lindenwood 13 - 7 16 - 12 0.3 3.4 12.8 26.6 30.9 20.7 5.3
Morehead St. 13 - 7 14 - 14 0.6 4.6 14.8 27.8 30.1 17.5 4.6
Arkansas Little Rock 9 - 11 10 - 19 0.9 5.8 17.7 28.7 28.3 15.0 3.6
Eastern Illinois 9 - 11 10 - 18 1.8 10.3 24.0 31.2 23.1 8.5 1.2
Tennessee Tech 7 - 13 9 - 19 10.7 27.3 31.3 20.7 8.1 1.7 0.2
Southern Indiana 4 - 16 5 - 23 5.8 20.4 30.8 26.4 12.6 3.5 0.5
Western Illinois 1 - 19 2 - 26 19.0 35.0 28.7 13.0 3.7 0.5 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Tennessee Martin 73.5% 50.1 14.7 6.6 1.6 0.4 0.1
Southeast Missouri St. 12.5% 3.2 4.6 3.3 1.1 0.3 0.1
Tennessee St. 17.1% 5.3 6.3 4.0 1.1 0.3 0.1
SIU Edwardsville 16.5% 4.8 6.0 4.2 1.2 0.4 0.1
Lindenwood 14.8% 3.7 5.6 3.8 1.2 0.3 0.1
Morehead St. 9.9% 2.0 3.6 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.1
Arkansas Little Rock
Eastern Illinois
Tennessee Tech
Southern Indiana
Western Illinois


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Tennessee Martin 29.1% 29.1% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.6 5.6 16.1 6.8 70.9 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 15.8% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 6.2 8.7 84.2 0.0%
Tennessee St. 15.3% 15.3% 0.0% 0.1 1.4 7.4 6.5 84.7 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 15.4% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 3.7 11.2 84.7 0.0%
Lindenwood 15.1% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 4.5 10.0 84.9 0.0%
Morehead St. 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 5.2 93.8 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 1.8 98.2 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 99.0 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 90.0% 0.9 10.0 90.0
2nd Round 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Tennessee Martin 29.1% 1.1% 28.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 15.8% 2.9% 14.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 15.3% 1.5% 14.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 15.4% 5.1% 12.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindenwood 15.1% 4.0% 13.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 6.2% 3.2% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 1.8% 1.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%