Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
198 Tennessee St. 38.4%   16   18 - 9 15 - 5 -2.1      -0.4 173 -1.7 224 74.9 32 -0.7 169 -1.5 2
223 Southeast Missouri St. 15.7%   16 - 12 14 - 6 -3.6      -4.5 292 +0.9 144 72.0 89 -3.7 231 -2.8 3
230 Tennessee Martin 13.2%   18 - 10 13 - 7 -3.9      -6.5 333 +2.6 104 63.2 324 -2.2 197 -4.2 4
249 SIU Edwardsville 11.2%   16 - 12 12 - 8 -4.9      -6.9 335 +2.0 119 62.9 329 -5.5 249 -5.4 5
274 Lindenwood 3.6%   14 - 14 11 - 9 -6.3      -5.4 310 -0.9 205 78.9 7 -6.2 260 -6.5 6
281 Morehead St. 15.6%   16 - 12 15 - 5 -6.7      -1.1 193 -5.6 324 64.4 290 -3.2 222 -0.9 1
297 Arkansas Little Rock 1.8%   10 - 19 9 - 11 -8.0      -3.6 265 -4.4 305 66.1 248 -9.1 313 -8.9 7
312 Tennessee Tech 0.0%   10 - 18 8 - 12 -9.1      -4.7 296 -4.5 307 68.2 188 -9.4 315 -10.1 9
327 Eastern Illinois 0.6%   9 - 19 8 - 12 -10.6      -9.1 353 -1.5 220 65.2 268 -10.0 320 -9.9 8
338 Southern Indiana 0.0%   5 - 23 4 - 16 -12.0      -8.6 351 -3.4 276 68.5 179 -16.0 355 -16.0 10
364 Western Illinois 0.0%   2 - 26 1 - 19 -18.9      -10.9 360 -7.9 354 66.0 249 -20.7 362 -23.5 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Feb 26 223 Southeast Missouri St. 71 198 Tennessee St. 79   
Thu, Feb 26 312 Tennessee Tech 49 230 Tennessee Martin 64   
Thu, Feb 26 327 Eastern Illinois 71 274 Lindenwood 67   
Thu, Feb 26 297 Arkansas Little Rock 70 281 Morehead St. 76   
Thu, Feb 26 249 SIU Edwardsville 67 364 Western Illinois 47   
Sat, Feb 28 223 Southeast Missouri St. 89 312 Tennessee Tech 73   
Sat, Feb 28 327 Eastern Illinois 50 249 SIU Edwardsville 77   
Sat, Feb 28 198 Tennessee St. 67 230 Tennessee Martin 42   
Sat, Feb 28 297 Arkansas Little Rock 89 338 Southern Indiana 70   
Sat, Feb 28 274 Lindenwood 91 364 Western Illinois 69   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Mar 4 274 Lindenwood 77 297 Arkansas Little Rock 75 57%   
Wed, Mar 4 327 Eastern Illinois 59 249 SIU Edwardsville 65 71%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Tennessee St. 1.0 100.0
Southeast Missouri St. 3.0 100.0
Tennessee Martin 4.0 100.0
SIU Edwardsville 4.3 71.0 29.0
Lindenwood 5.8 16.4 83.6
Morehead St. 1.0 100.0
Arkansas Little Rock 7.0 100.0
Tennessee Tech 8.3 71.0 29.0
Eastern Illinois 7.8 16.4 83.6
Southern Indiana 10.0 100.0
Western Illinois 11.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Tennessee St. 15 - 5 18 - 9 100.0
Southeast Missouri St. 14 - 6 16 - 12 100.0
Tennessee Martin 13 - 7 18 - 10 100.0
SIU Edwardsville 13 - 8 17 - 12 29.0 71.0
Lindenwood 12 - 9 15 - 14 43.8 56.3
Morehead St. 15 - 5 16 - 12 100.0
Arkansas Little Rock 9 - 12 10 - 20 56.3 43.8
Tennessee Tech 8 - 12 10 - 18 100.0
Eastern Illinois 8 - 13 9 - 20 71.0 29.0
Southern Indiana 4 - 16 5 - 23 100.0
Western Illinois 1 - 19 2 - 26 100.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Tennessee St. 100.0% 100.0
Southeast Missouri St.
Tennessee Martin
SIU Edwardsville
Lindenwood
Morehead St. 100.0% 100.0
Arkansas Little Rock
Tennessee Tech
Eastern Illinois
Southern Indiana
Western Illinois


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Tennessee St. 38.4% 38.4% 0.0% 16   0.1 4.6 23.6 10.1 61.6 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 15.7% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 6.5 8.8 84.3 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0 1.4 8.3 3.4 86.8 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0 1.1 10.1 88.8 0.0%
Lindenwood 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.4 3.1 96.4 0.0%
Morehead St. 15.6% 15.6% 0.0% 0.7 14.9 84.4 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 1.8 98.2 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 87.6% 0.9 12.4 87.6
2nd Round 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Tennessee St. 38.4% 0.8% 38.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 15.7% 2.1% 14.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 13.2% 0.3% 13.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 11.2% 6.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindenwood 3.6% 2.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 15.6% 10.5% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 1.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%