Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
206 Tennessee Martin 29.7%   16   12 - 4 7 - 1 -3.0      -3.6 273 +0.6 142 65.2 278 +2.8 121 +3.0 1
233 Tennessee St. 19.0%   9 - 6 6 - 2 -4.0      -2.1 222 -2.0 244 74.9 46 -0.4 170 -2.4 3
250 Lindenwood 14.7%   8 - 8 5 - 3 -4.8      -4.8 300 0.0 165 78.0 16 -4.0 231 -4.4 5
259 Southeast Missouri St. 8.0%   6 - 10 4 - 4 -5.4      -3.8 278 -1.6 227 73.6 64 -7.4 288 -8.2 8
262 SIU Edwardsville 9.6%   8 - 8 4 - 4 -5.6      -6.4 330 +0.9 137 64.2 303 -6.6 268 -7.8 7
283 Arkansas Little Rock 9.9%   7 - 10 6 - 2 -6.8      -2.7 242 -4.2 299 66.6 243 -5.5 249 -1.4 2
296 Morehead St. 6.1%   6 - 10 5 - 3 -7.8      -2.2 226 -5.5 328 64.7 289 -5.9 255 -2.7 4
314 Eastern Illinois 2.2%   5 - 11 4 - 4 -9.3      -8.6 355 -0.7 193 66.1 268 -8.4 302 -7.5 6
324 Southern Indiana 0.5%   2 - 14 1 - 7 -10.0      -7.7 347 -2.3 253 69.5 166 -15.9 350 -17.0 10
333 Tennessee Tech 0.3%   4 - 12 2 - 6 -10.9      -6.5 331 -4.3 306 69.4 170 -11.9 334 -14.4 9
358 Western Illinois 0.0%   1 - 15 0 - 8 -14.5      -9.9 360 -4.6 313 64.4 300 -20.1 360 -22.3 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 17 250 Lindenwood 55 206 Tennessee Martin 69   
Sat, Jan 17 324 Southern Indiana 67 233 Tennessee St. 73   
Sat, Jan 17 296 Morehead St. 76 333 Tennessee Tech 70   
Sat, Jan 17 283 Arkansas Little Rock 86 358 Western Illinois 79   
Sat, Jan 17 262 SIU Edwardsville 68 259 Southeast Missouri St. 55   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Tue, Jan 20 259 Southeast Missouri St. 72 206 Tennessee Martin 71 52%   
Thu, Jan 22 262 SIU Edwardsville 71 233 Tennessee St. 70 56%   
Thu, Jan 22 283 Arkansas Little Rock 73 259 Southeast Missouri St. 77 67%   
Thu, Jan 22 314 Eastern Illinois 65 324 Southern Indiana 67 59%   
Thu, Jan 22 250 Lindenwood 80 333 Tennessee Tech 71 80%   
Thu, Jan 22 296 Morehead St. 73 358 Western Illinois 64 82%   
Sat, Jan 24 250 Lindenwood 81 233 Tennessee St. 78 59%   
Sat, Jan 24 283 Arkansas Little Rock 66 206 Tennessee Martin 73 74%   
Sat, Jan 24 314 Eastern Illinois 66 296 Morehead St. 70 67%   
Sat, Jan 24 262 SIU Edwardsville 71 333 Tennessee Tech 63 78%   
Sat, Jan 24 324 Southern Indiana 71 358 Western Illinois 63 76%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Tennessee Martin 1.6 66.9 16.9 8.3 4.2 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Tennessee St. 3.0 19.9 27.9 19.8 14.0 9.0 5.5 2.9 0.9 0.2
Lindenwood 3.6 13.7 21.8 18.3 15.7 12.8 8.4 5.6 3.1 0.6 0.1
Southeast Missouri St. 5.6 1.8 5.0 9.0 13.3 16.0 18.0 19.0 13.1 4.1 0.9 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 5.0 4.3 9.6 12.8 14.1 16.2 16.3 14.0 9.0 3.1 0.6 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 3.7 13.9 18.3 18.9 16.0 12.7 9.7 6.8 3.1 0.6 0.1
Morehead St. 4.4 6.5 13.7 15.5 17.0 15.9 14.0 9.5 6.2 1.5 0.3 0.0
Eastern Illinois 6.7 0.7 2.3 4.6 7.3 10.2 14.4 19.3 24.9 11.9 4.1 0.2
Southern Indiana 9.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 3.0 6.5 14.7 33.8 31.0 9.3
Tennessee Tech 9.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.8 5.6 14.1 35.1 33.3 6.7
Western Illinois 10.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.5 7.8 20.3 69.8

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Tennessee Martin 15 - 5 20 - 8 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 6.7 12.9 17.5 20.8 18.4 12.4 6.2 1.2
Tennessee St. 13 - 6 16 - 10 0.1 0.6 2.4 6.4 12.8 18.5 22.5 19.2 11.7 5.0 0.8
Lindenwood 12 - 8 15 - 13 0.1 0.7 2.4 5.6 10.2 15.8 19.9 19.3 14.3 8.2 3.0 0.6
Southeast Missouri St. 10 - 9 12 - 15 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.9 10.6 17.6 21.0 20.1 14.0 6.9 2.3 0.3
SIU Edwardsville 11 - 9 15 - 13 0.0 0.3 1.0 3.4 7.8 13.5 18.2 19.8 16.8 11.3 5.6 2.1 0.3
Arkansas Little Rock 12 - 8 13 - 16 0.1 0.5 2.4 6.2 12.3 16.9 19.0 18.2 13.6 7.2 2.9 0.7 0.1
Morehead St. 11 - 9 12 - 16 0.0 0.4 1.7 4.6 9.9 16.6 19.6 19.0 14.7 8.9 3.8 0.9 0.1
Eastern Illinois 9 - 11 10 - 18 0.3 2.4 6.7 12.3 17.3 20.3 17.2 12.4 7.0 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0
Southern Indiana 6 - 14 7 - 21 0.3 1.7 5.8 11.8 18.0 20.4 17.7 13.0 7.2 3.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
Tennessee Tech 6 - 14 8 - 20 1.1 5.1 11.9 18.9 21.8 18.2 12.2 6.7 3.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
Western Illinois 3 - 17 4 - 24 3.9 12.4 19.0 22.5 18.8 12.7 7.0 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Tennessee Martin 66.9% 50.7 12.3 3.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee St. 19.9% 9.9 7.0 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lindenwood 13.7% 6.6 4.6 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 1.8% 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 4.3% 1.5 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 13.9% 6.5 5.0 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Morehead St. 6.5% 2.6 2.3 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Eastern Illinois 0.7% 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Southern Indiana
Tennessee Tech
Western Illinois


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Tennessee Martin 29.7% 29.7% 0.0% 16   0.3 1.6 6.9 15.6 5.4 70.3 0.0%
Tennessee St. 19.0% 19.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 2.6 9.4 6.5 81.0 0.0%
Lindenwood 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.9 9.1 85.3 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.8 6.0 92.0 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 2.0 7.3 90.4 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 8.6 90.1 0.0%
Morehead St. 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 5.3 93.9 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.1 2.0 97.9 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 99.5 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 88.6% 0.9 11.4 88.6
2nd Round 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Tennessee Martin 29.7% 0.7% 29.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 19.0% 1.4% 18.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindenwood 14.7% 3.4% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 8.0% 3.0% 6.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 9.6% 3.0% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 9.9% 5.3% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 6.1% 3.3% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 2.2% 1.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%