Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
214 Tennessee Martin 28.4%   16   17 - 8 12 - 5 -3.0      -5.0 305 +2.0 112 63.6 315 -0.9 176 -2.7 3
226 Southeast Missouri St. 20.7%   14 - 11 12 - 5 -3.6      -4.4 285 +0.8 143 71.8 90 -3.7 225 -2.6 2
236 SIU Edwardsville 13.3%   14 - 10 10 - 6 -4.2      -5.8 317 +1.5 132 63.2 327 -4.9 247 -4.5 6
250 Tennessee St. 12.8%   14 - 9 11 - 5 -4.9      -0.7 184 -4.1 298 74.9 34 -2.6 209 -4.2 4
256 Lindenwood 11.8%   13 - 11 10 - 6 -5.3      -4.7 299 -0.6 190 79.2 9 -4.5 240 -4.5 5
288 Morehead St. 10.4%   12 - 12 11 - 5 -7.3      -1.6 213 -5.7 325 64.6 287 -4.4 238 -2.2 1
302 Arkansas Little Rock 1.6%   8 - 17 7 - 9 -8.1      -4.3 282 -3.8 287 66.5 240 -9.2 312 -8.8 7
319 Tennessee Tech 0.2%   8 - 16 6 - 10 -9.9      -3.9 275 -6.0 331 68.7 178 -10.7 328 -11.6 9
320 Eastern Illinois 0.8%   8 - 16 7 - 9 -10.1      -9.3 355 -0.8 200 65.6 259 -9.4 314 -9.0 8
342 Southern Indiana 0.0%   3 - 21 2 - 14 -12.2      -9.7 357 -2.6 254 68.9 166 -18.6 357 -19.3 10
362 Western Illinois 0.0%   2 - 22 1 - 15 -17.5      -10.5 359 -7.0 349 65.9 254 -19.1 359 -21.6 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Feb 14 256 Lindenwood 61 226 Southeast Missouri St. 73   
Sat, Feb 14 320 Eastern Illinois 78 302 Arkansas Little Rock 72   
Sat, Feb 14 236 SIU Edwardsville 76 214 Tennessee Martin 81   
Sat, Feb 14 342 Southern Indiana 74 319 Tennessee Tech 82   
Sat, Feb 14 288 Morehead St. 94 250 Tennessee St. 86   
Tue, Feb 17 226 Southeast Missouri St. 56 214 Tennessee Martin 53   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Feb 19 256 Lindenwood 81 250 Tennessee St. 84 63%   
Thu, Feb 19 302 Arkansas Little Rock 66 214 Tennessee Martin 68 58%   
Thu, Feb 19 320 Eastern Illinois 69 288 Morehead St. 68 51%   
Thu, Feb 19 236 SIU Edwardsville 70 319 Tennessee Tech 67 60%   
Thu, Feb 19 342 Southern Indiana 69 362 Western Illinois 67 59%   
Sat, Feb 21 236 SIU Edwardsville 71 250 Tennessee St. 73 59%   
Sat, Feb 21 302 Arkansas Little Rock 71 226 Southeast Missouri St. 73 56%   
Sat, Feb 21 256 Lindenwood 79 319 Tennessee Tech 78 56%   
Sat, Feb 21 320 Eastern Illinois 68 342 Southern Indiana 63 69%   
Sat, Feb 21 288 Morehead St. 74 362 Western Illinois 67 76%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Tennessee Martin 1.5 74.2 12.8 7.6 3.5 1.5 0.4
Southeast Missouri St. 2.3 27.8 33.6 23.5 10.5 4.0 0.7
SIU Edwardsville 3.5 12.7 18.7 19.6 17.8 19.2 12.0 0.1 0.0
Tennessee St. 3.8 13.2 13.2 18.0 14.9 19.3 21.4
Lindenwood 3.9 9.3 14.6 17.2 17.0 21.5 20.1 0.3 0.0
Morehead St. 2.3 38.6 25.0 16.0 10.4 7.2 2.8
Arkansas Little Rock 7.2 0.0 0.2 3.6 73.5 20.6 2.2
Tennessee Tech 8.6 0.0 7.5 21.6 70.9
Eastern Illinois 7.6 0.0 0.4 1.8 44.7 47.5 5.6
Southern Indiana 10.1 0.3 90.3 9.4
Western Illinois 10.7 27.7 72.3

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Tennessee Martin 14 - 6 19 - 9 2.7 19.6 43.9 33.8
Southeast Missouri St. 13 - 6 15 - 12 8.5 46.2 45.4
SIU Edwardsville 13 - 7 17 - 11 0.4 7.0 29.8 42.9 19.8
Tennessee St. 13 - 6 16 - 10 11.2 36.3 39.3 13.2
Lindenwood 13 - 7 16 - 12 1.7 12.4 34.0 37.9 14.0
Morehead St. 13 - 7 14 - 14 2.2 14.1 34.6 35.9 13.3
Arkansas Little Rock 9 - 11 10 - 19 4.2 20.8 36.5 29.3 9.2
Tennessee Tech 7 - 13 9 - 19 24.4 40.8 26.6 7.4 0.7
Eastern Illinois 9 - 11 10 - 18 10.3 35.0 37.8 14.7 2.2
Southern Indiana 3 - 17 4 - 24 18.1 39.7 30.2 10.6 1.4
Western Illinois 2 - 18 3 - 25 34.3 43.1 18.9 3.5 0.2

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Tennessee Martin 74.2% 36.3 20.0 12.3 4.5 1.0 0.2
Southeast Missouri St. 27.8% 1.9 9.8 10.5 4.4 1.0 0.2
SIU Edwardsville 12.7% 1.1 3.9 4.2 2.4 0.8 0.2
Tennessee St. 13.2% 2.0 4.7 3.9 1.8 0.7 0.2
Lindenwood 9.3% 0.7 2.5 3.3 1.9 0.7 0.2
Morehead St. 38.6% 10.4 13.3 9.7 4.1 0.9 0.2
Arkansas Little Rock
Tennessee Tech
Eastern Illinois
Southern Indiana
Western Illinois


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Tennessee Martin 28.4% 28.4% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.3 5.1 15.7 7.3 71.6 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 20.7% 20.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 8.7 11.1 79.3 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 0.3 4.1 8.9 86.7 0.0%
Tennessee St. 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 0.3 5.1 7.4 87.2 0.0%
Lindenwood 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 3.3 8.3 88.2 0.0%
Morehead St. 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 9.3 89.6 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 1.6 98.4 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8 99.2 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 88.4% 0.9 11.6 88.4
2nd Round 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Tennessee Martin 28.4% 1.1% 27.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 20.7% 3.3% 19.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 13.3% 3.6% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 12.8% 2.4% 11.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindenwood 11.8% 3.7% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 10.4% 6.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 1.6% 1.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%