Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
216 Tennessee Martin 27.1%   16   16 - 7 11 - 4 -3.0      -4.7 295 +1.7 123 63.6 317 -0.5 170 -2.3 1
230 SIU Edwardsville 18.5%   14 - 9 10 - 5 -3.9      -6.1 326 +2.2 107 62.8 329 -4.3 235 -3.4 5
240 Southeast Missouri St. 10.3%   12 - 11 10 - 5 -4.4      -3.4 261 -0.9 202 72.5 73 -5.2 250 -4.6 6
241 Tennessee St. 16.4%   14 - 8 11 - 4 -4.4      -1.0 191 -3.4 281 74.9 34 -1.6 195 -3.1 3
243 Lindenwood 17.9%   13 - 10 10 - 5 -4.5      -3.8 275 -0.7 194 79.4 9 -3.4 221 -3.3 4
291 Morehead St. 6.9%   11 - 12 10 - 5 -7.6      -2.3 232 -5.2 320 64.5 292 -4.8 244 -2.5 2
292 Arkansas Little Rock 2.2%   8 - 16 7 - 8 -7.7      -4.4 290 -3.2 276 66.4 243 -8.5 303 -7.9 7
322 Tennessee Tech 0.1%   7 - 16 5 - 10 -10.2      -4.5 291 -5.7 328 69.0 170 -11.3 331 -12.6 9
326 Eastern Illinois 0.7%   7 - 16 6 - 9 -10.3      -9.7 357 -0.6 190 65.5 264 -9.9 319 -9.6 8
337 Southern Indiana 0.0%   3 - 20 2 - 13 -11.7      -9.9 358 -1.8 231 69.2 164 -17.8 356 -18.4 10
362 Western Illinois 0.0%   2 - 22 1 - 15 -17.4      -10.3 360 -7.1 345 65.8 259 -19.0 359 -21.6 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Feb 10 326 Eastern Illinois 70 362 Western Illinois 79   
Thu, Feb 12 243 Lindenwood 75 216 Tennessee Martin 74   
Thu, Feb 12 337 Southern Indiana 71 241 Tennessee St. 73   
Thu, Feb 12 230 SIU Edwardsville 74 240 Southeast Missouri St. 56   
Thu, Feb 12 291 Morehead St. 73 322 Tennessee Tech 66   
Thu, Feb 12 292 Arkansas Little Rock 77 362 Western Illinois 58   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 14 230 SIU Edwardsville 63 216 Tennessee Martin 61 58%   
Sat, Feb 14 243 Lindenwood 80 240 Southeast Missouri St. 77 61%   
Sat, Feb 14 291 Morehead St. 77 241 Tennessee St. 78 51%   
Sat, Feb 14 326 Eastern Illinois 67 292 Arkansas Little Rock 66 51%   
Sat, Feb 14 337 Southern Indiana 72 322 Tennessee Tech 70 56%   
Tue, Feb 17 240 Southeast Missouri St. 67 216 Tennessee Martin 71 66%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Tennessee Martin 1.8 61.0 17.5 10.7 6.0 3.3 1.5 0.1
SIU Edwardsville 2.6 30.8 23.2 20.1 14.0 8.4 3.3 0.1
Southeast Missouri St. 4.5 4.4 8.3 13.8 17.1 24.6 28.3 3.6 0.0
Tennessee St. 3.0 23.7 20.3 18.5 15.4 14.6 7.4 0.1
Lindenwood 2.8 22.9 25.8 20.3 14.2 9.7 6.8 0.4
Morehead St. 3.3 15.8 20.5 20.1 18.1 15.5 9.1 0.8
Arkansas Little Rock 6.8 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.9 13.2 68.4 10.7 0.6
Tennessee Tech 8.7 0.1 2.6 24.4 70.4 2.6
Eastern Illinois 7.8 0.0 0.2 1.0 24.3 65.3 9.1 0.1
Southern Indiana 9.9 0.0 1.3 10.0 83.7 5.0
Western Illinois 10.8 0.0 16.2 83.8

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Tennessee Martin 14 - 6 19 - 9 0.7 6.3 20.8 33.7 28.2 10.3
SIU Edwardsville 13 - 7 17 - 11 0.2 3.3 16.2 34.0 33.7 12.5
Southeast Missouri St. 12 - 7 14 - 13 4.7 24.2 39.4 25.5 6.3
Tennessee St. 13 - 6 16 - 10 5.9 23.8 36.1 26.7 7.5
Lindenwood 13 - 7 16 - 12 0.5 5.3 19.2 34.0 30.8 10.3
Morehead St. 13 - 7 14 - 14 1.4 9.5 26.1 33.9 22.7 6.4
Arkansas Little Rock 10 - 10 11 - 18 2.0 11.7 27.1 32.4 21.2 5.6
Tennessee Tech 7 - 13 9 - 19 14.8 34.1 31.6 15.5 3.7 0.4
Eastern Illinois 8 - 12 9 - 19 6.2 24.4 35.1 25.3 8.0 1.1
Southern Indiana 4 - 16 5 - 23 7.6 25.3 35.6 22.5 7.8 1.2
Western Illinois 2 - 18 3 - 25 35.7 42.7 18.0 3.5 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Tennessee Martin 61.0% 33.0 16.2 8.9 2.5 0.4 0.1
SIU Edwardsville 30.8% 10.0 10.3 7.5 2.5 0.4 0.1
Southeast Missouri St. 4.4% 0.2 1.4 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1
Tennessee St. 23.7% 8.3 7.3 5.9 1.8 0.4 0.1
Lindenwood 22.9% 5.6 8.3 6.4 2.2 0.4 0.1
Morehead St. 15.8% 3.4 5.4 4.6 1.9 0.4 0.1
Arkansas Little Rock
Tennessee Tech
Eastern Illinois
Southern Indiana
Western Illinois


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Tennessee Martin 27.1% 27.1% 0.0% 16   0.6 4.8 14.4 7.3 72.9 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 18.5% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 5.3 12.7 81.5 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 3.6 6.2 89.8 0.0%
Tennessee St. 16.4% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0 1.2 7.6 7.5 83.6 0.0%
Lindenwood 17.9% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 5.3 12.1 82.1 0.0%
Morehead St. 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 5.9 93.1 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 2.1 97.8 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7 99.4 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 89.6% 0.9 10.4 89.6
2nd Round 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Tennessee Martin 27.1% 1.3% 26.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 18.5% 5.4% 16.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 10.3% 2.1% 9.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 16.4% 1.9% 15.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindenwood 17.9% 4.8% 15.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 6.9% 3.4% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 2.2% 1.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%