Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
217 Tennessee Martin 22.5%   17 - 9 12 - 6 -3.2      -4.9 299 +1.7 123 63.3 323 -1.8 193 -3.8 4
222 Southeast Missouri St. 26.1%   16   15 - 11 13 - 5 -3.5      -4.7 294 +1.2 139 72.0 88 -3.2 218 -2.1 2
225 Tennessee St. 21.9%   16 - 9 13 - 5 -3.7      -0.3 167 -3.4 278 74.9 31 -2.0 199 -3.4 3
263 SIU Edwardsville 6.0%   14 - 12 10 - 8 -5.7      -7.2 340 +1.5 125 62.9 327 -5.8 254 -5.7 5
272 Lindenwood 4.5%   13 - 13 10 - 8 -6.3      -5.6 314 -0.7 193 79.1 8 -5.5 250 -5.8 6
285 Morehead St. 15.5%   15 - 12 14 - 5 -7.0      -1.3 202 -5.7 325 64.4 291 -3.8 234 -1.6 1
300 Arkansas Little Rock 2.0%   9 - 18 8 - 10 -8.2      -4.2 281 -4.0 292 66.2 246 -8.9 308 -8.5 7
308 Tennessee Tech 1.2%   10 - 16 8 - 10 -8.7      -4.4 287 -4.3 303 68.3 189 -9.2 312 -9.8 8
323 Eastern Illinois 0.3%   8 - 18 7 - 11 -10.4      -9.2 355 -1.2 212 65.7 259 -10.8 329 -10.8 9
336 Southern Indiana 0.0%   5 - 22 4 - 15 -11.7      -8.9 352 -2.8 258 68.5 179 -15.9 355 -15.8 10
362 Western Illinois 0.0%   2 - 24 1 - 17 -18.3      -10.6 359 -7.7 354 65.9 251 -20.2 361 -23.0 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Feb 24 285 Morehead St. 64 336 Southern Indiana 63   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Feb 26 222 Southeast Missouri St. 80 225 Tennessee St. 77 62%   
Thu, Feb 26 300 Arkansas Little Rock 74 285 Morehead St. 72 57%   
Thu, Feb 26 308 Tennessee Tech 64 217 Tennessee Martin 72 79%   
Thu, Feb 26 323 Eastern Illinois 68 272 Lindenwood 75 75%   
Thu, Feb 26 263 SIU Edwardsville 72 362 Western Illinois 57 92%   
Sat, Feb 28 225 Tennessee St. 71 217 Tennessee Martin 74 63%   
Sat, Feb 28 222 Southeast Missouri St. 77 308 Tennessee Tech 69 78%   
Sat, Feb 28 323 Eastern Illinois 58 263 SIU Edwardsville 66 77%   
Sat, Feb 28 300 Arkansas Little Rock 73 336 Southern Indiana 67 73%   
Sat, Feb 28 272 Lindenwood 78 362 Western Illinois 69 80%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Tennessee Martin 2.8 14.3 25.1 23.0 37.6
Southeast Missouri St. 1.5 65.9 19.9 9.6 4.6
Tennessee St. 2.5 30.9 22.5 15.4 31.2
SIU Edwardsville 5.1 6.0 76.6 17.5
Lindenwood 5.2 5.1 66.2 28.8
Morehead St. 1.4 64.0 36.0
Arkansas Little Rock 7.0 0.1 2.9 89.7 7.2 0.2
Tennessee Tech 7.7 0.0 0.4 31.0 65.5 3.2
Eastern Illinois 8.6 6.0 23.4 70.6
Southern Indiana 10.0 100.0
Western Illinois 11.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Tennessee Martin 13 - 7 18 - 10 8.1 41.6 50.3
Southeast Missouri St. 14 - 6 16 - 12 9.4 42.2 48.4
Tennessee St. 14 - 6 17 - 10 39.3 46.0 14.7
SIU Edwardsville 12 - 8 16 - 12 1.9 26.2 72.0
Lindenwood 12 - 8 15 - 13 5.3 33.3 61.4
Morehead St. 14 - 6 15 - 13 56.8 43.3
Arkansas Little Rock 9 - 11 10 - 19 12.1 46.5 41.4
Tennessee Tech 8 - 12 10 - 18 61.7 33.3 5.0
Eastern Illinois 7 - 13 8 - 20 58.5 35.9 5.6
Southern Indiana 4 - 16 5 - 23 72.5 27.5
Western Illinois 1 - 19 2 - 26 74.9 23.6 1.5

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Tennessee Martin 14.3% 6.2 8.1
Southeast Missouri St. 65.9% 27.6 21.8 8.4 8.1
Tennessee St. 30.9% 8.4 7.1 7.3 8.1
SIU Edwardsville
Lindenwood
Morehead St. 64.0% 16.1 28.9 11.0 8.1
Arkansas Little Rock
Tennessee Tech
Eastern Illinois
Southern Indiana
Western Illinois


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Tennessee Martin 22.5% 22.5% 0.0% 0.3 4.5 12.5 5.1 77.5 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 26.1% 26.1% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.7 11.4 14.0 73.9 0.0%
Tennessee St. 21.9% 21.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 8.6 12.4 78.1 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 1.4 4.6 94.0 0.0%
Lindenwood 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 3.5 95.5 0.0%
Morehead St. 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 1.0 14.5 84.5 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0 98.1 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 1.2 98.8 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 86.6% 0.9 13.4 86.6
2nd Round 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Tennessee Martin 22.5% 0.9% 22.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 26.1% 4.3% 24.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 21.9% 4.0% 20.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 6.0% 2.0% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindenwood 4.5% 1.4% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 15.5% 9.4% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 2.0% 1.9% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 1.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%