Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.2#295
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#231
Pace74.9#36
Improvement+1.2#51

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#282
First Shot-4.8#320
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#83
Layup/Dunks-1.8#253
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#174
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#307
Freethrows+0.4#144
Improvement-0.4#265

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#287
First Shot-2.8#269
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#260
Layups/Dunks-1.7#252
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#25
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#234
Freethrows-2.2#323
Improvement+1.6#13
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.9% 11.4% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 85.6% 96.4% 81.4%
.500 or above in Conference 96.1% 99.6% 94.7%
Conference Champion 21.8% 39.3% 14.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.3% 3.5% 3.3%
First Round5.9% 9.3% 4.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Away) - 28.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 414 - 615 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 67   @ Pittsburgh L 58-80 6%     0 - 1 -11.2 -16.4 +7.7
  Nov 09, 2022 134   @ Youngstown St. L 72-90 13%     0 - 2 -13.2 -7.0 -5.3
  Nov 18, 2022 96   @ Mississippi L 68-72 9%     0 - 3 +3.9 -1.6 +5.6
  Nov 20, 2022 286   Prairie View W 80-79 58%     1 - 3 -8.3 +3.9 -12.3
  Nov 22, 2022 308   @ Arkansas St. L 64-70 43%     1 - 4 -11.4 -9.9 -1.6
  Nov 28, 2022 339   McNeese St. W 86-83 73%     2 - 4 -10.7 +4.3 -15.0
  Dec 03, 2022 189   @ UNC Asheville L 83-90 20%     2 - 5 -5.4 +9.3 -14.6
  Dec 11, 2022 317   Chicago St. W 75-74 OT 66%     3 - 5 -10.4 -7.8 -2.6
  Dec 17, 2022 238   @ Bowling Green W 75-67 28%     4 - 5 +6.7 -3.3 +9.8
  Dec 29, 2022 332   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 74-88 51%     4 - 6 0 - 1 -21.5 -12.1 -8.0
  Dec 31, 2022 279   Morehead St. W 64-57 56%     5 - 6 1 - 1 -1.8 -11.7 +10.1
  Jan 05, 2023 250   Southeast Missouri St. W 87-82 51%     6 - 6 2 - 1 -2.4 +3.6 -6.4
  Jan 07, 2023 301   Tennessee Tech L 80-84 OT 62%     6 - 7 2 - 2 -14.4 -6.9 -7.1
  Jan 12, 2023 321   @ Tennessee St. W 77-66 47%     7 - 7 3 - 2 +4.6 -0.3 +5.0
  Jan 14, 2023 270   @ Southern Indiana L 66-80 34%     7 - 8 3 - 3 -17.0 -14.8 -1.0
  Jan 19, 2023 250   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 80-60 31%     8 - 8 4 - 3 +17.9 -2.2 +17.9
  Jan 21, 2023 345   Eastern Illinois W 91-78 76%     9 - 8 5 - 3 -1.5 +7.1 -9.3
  Jan 26, 2023 353   Lindenwood W 66-59 80%     10 - 8 6 - 3 -8.9 -14.3 +5.2
  Jan 28, 2023 270   Southern Indiana W 86-83 OT 54%     11 - 8 7 - 3 -5.3 -2.3 -3.4
  Feb 02, 2023 237   @ SIU Edwardsville L 69-75 28%    
  Feb 04, 2023 353   @ Lindenwood W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 09, 2023 345   @ Eastern Illinois W 74-72 56%    
  Feb 11, 2023 332   Arkansas Little Rock W 82-76 71%    
  Feb 16, 2023 237   SIU Edwardsville L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 18, 2023 301   @ Tennessee Tech L 72-74 41%    
  Feb 23, 2023 321   Tennessee St. W 80-75 68%    
  Feb 25, 2023 279   @ Morehead St. L 69-73 35%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 6.9 9.4 4.0 0.7 21.8 1st
2nd 0.3 6.5 11.6 3.1 0.2 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.2 11.7 3.5 0.1 18.5 3rd
4th 0.8 8.4 5.8 0.2 15.1 4th
5th 0.3 4.6 7.1 0.8 12.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 4.8 1.4 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.3 1.0 0.3 1.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.5 3.5 10.5 20.4 25.6 22.1 12.6 4.2 0.7 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
14-4 96.0% 4.0    3.2 0.8 0.0
13-5 74.9% 9.4    4.4 4.3 0.7 0.0
12-6 31.3% 6.9    0.8 2.7 2.6 0.7 0.1
11-7 3.1% 0.8    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.8% 21.8 9.1 7.8 3.5 1.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.7% 28.8% 28.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-4 4.2% 21.1% 21.1% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.5 3.3
13-5 12.6% 13.4% 13.4% 15.7 0.0 0.5 1.2 10.9
12-6 22.1% 10.2% 10.2% 15.8 0.4 1.9 19.9
11-7 25.6% 6.3% 6.3% 15.9 0.2 1.5 24.0
10-8 20.4% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9 19.5
9-9 10.5% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.3 10.2
8-10 3.5% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 3.4
7-11 0.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 1.6 6.2 92.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 28.8% 15.0 3.7 22.7 2.5
Lose Out 0.5% 1.7% 16.0 1.7