Arkansas Little Rock
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.6 #293
Expected Predictive Rating -8.3 #297
Pace 65.8 #258
Improvement +5.4 #17

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #277 D+ C- D F+ D-
Defense #286 F C- B C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #278 1.22 #109 -1.0 #215
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #17 0.59 #356 +1.4 #98
Three Pointers 34% #326 0.99 #216 -4.2 #316
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #296 -3.7 #296
Freethrows 0.24 #346 67% #335 0.16 #357
Second Chance 30.5% #185 0.98 #247 0.30 #209
Turnovers 19.4% #317
Total Offense -4.0 #277

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #167 1.33 #353 -3.8 #306
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #357 0.79 #234 +2.7 #14
Three Pointers 48% #29 1.20 #359 -7.7 #360
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #363 -8.8 #363
Freethrows 0.29 #132 71% #122 0.21 #121
Second Chance 36.5% #347 0.94 #71 0.34 #259
Turnovers 19.5% #49
Total Defense -3.7 #286

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.2% #341 2.0% #342
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.2% #246 15.1% #363
Possession Length 18.4 #294 16.8 #105
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #128 0.23 #344
Improvement +2.5 #61 +2.9 #43

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.6% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 1.3% 2.3% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 64.3% 79.7% 47.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.1% 2.8% 1.5%
First Round1.5% 2.1% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Home) - 51.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 51 - 8
Quad 411 - 1112 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 271 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 72 - 92 33% -7  0 - 1 -23 -3 D+ C+ F -20 F F C+
 Wed, Nov 12 96 @Marquette L 49 - 89 7% -18  0 - 2 -31 -17 F F F -16 F B D+
 Sat, Nov 15 305 @Ball St. W 68 - 62 42% +2  1 - 2 +1 -3 C A+ F +4 F+ C A+
 Tue, Nov 18 105 @Murray St. L 68 - 89 9% -16  1 - 3 -14 -0 F+ A- F -14 F+ F D+
 Fri, Nov 21 256 @Texas St. L 56 - 65 30% -5  1 - 4 -11 -11 F D F -1 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 129 @Southern Illinois L 65 - 74 12% -1  1 - 5 -4 +5 A D+ F -10 F C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 208 @Central Arkansas L 47 - 85 23% -29  1 - 6 -38 -27 F D F -10 F C+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 169 Arkansas St. L 78 - 90 35% -8  1 - 7 -16 +1 A- F B -17 F D- D-
 Tue, Dec 9 55 @West Virginia L 58 - 90 4% -22  1 - 8 -19 +1 D- B C+ -23 F C+ C
 Tue, Dec 16 302 @Morehead St. L 64 - 78 41% -10  1 - 9 0 - 1 -19 -17 F D+ F+ -2 D- D A+
 Thu, Dec 18 334 @Southern Indiana W 77 - 62 52% +4  2 - 9 1 - 1 +7 +8 A+ F F -0 D- D- D+
 Thu, Jan 1 319 Tennessee Tech W 77 - 58 68% +5  3 - 9 2 - 1 +6 -1 C+ F+ C- +8 A+ D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 3 237 Tennessee St. L 79 - 84 49% -3  3 - 10 2 - 2 -12 -3 F B C -9 C+ F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 246 @SIU Edwardsville W 73 - 70 29% -6  4 - 10 3 - 2 +1 +12 C C A+ -10 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 241 @Lindenwood W 82 - 74 28% +5  5 - 10 4 - 2 +6 +12 B B+ D+ -5 F D+ B+
 Thu, Jan 15 323 Eastern Illinois W 74 - 63 70% -4  6 - 10 5 - 2 -2 +5 C B+ C+ -6 D F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 362 Western Illinois W 86 - 79 87% +6  7 - 10 6 - 2 -13 +8 C- D+ A -20 F D F
 Thu, Jan 22 233 @Southeast Missouri St. L 65 - 70 26% -5  7 - 11 6 - 3 -6 -5 F D A+ -1 D A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 237 @Tennessee St. L 63 - 70 28% +2  7 - 12 6 - 4 -8 -11 F B+ C +2 D C- A-
 Sat, Jan 31 319 @Tennessee Tech L 77 - 87 46% -8  7 - 13 6 - 5 -17 +2 B F B -19 F F A+
 Tue, Feb 3 200 @Tennessee Martin L 52 - 55 22% -1  7 - 14 6 - 6 -2 -11 D C F +8 C- B- A
 Thu, Feb 5 241 Lindenwood L 74 - 79 50% -0  7 - 15 6 - 7 -13 +2 F A+ A- -15 D- D+ D-
 Sat, Feb 7 246 SIU Edwardsville W 66 - 65 52%
 Thu, Feb 12 362 @Western Illinois W 72 - 66 72%
 Sat, Feb 14 323 @Eastern Illinois L 66 - 67 48%
 Thu, Feb 19 200 Tennessee Martin L 66 - 68 41%
 Sat, Feb 21 233 Southeast Missouri St. L 72 - 73 48%
 Thu, Feb 26 302 Morehead St. W 74 - 70 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 334 Southern Indiana W 72 - 66 73%
Totals 11 - 18 10 - 10 -8 -4 D+ C- D -4 F C- B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.5 1.3 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.8 1.1 4.0 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 5.0 0.1 7.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 7.8 2.1 11.2 5th
6th 1.0 9.2 8.7 0.3 19.1 6th
7th 0.2 4.0 15.0 17.7 2.9 0.0 39.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 5.7 5.2 0.7 0.0 13.2 8th
9th 0.3 1.3 1.2 0.2 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.4 3.2 10.9 21.4 28.9 22.1 10.8 2.5 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 2.5% 9.3% 9.3% 15.5 0.1 0.1 2.3
12-8 10.8% 7.6% 7.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8 10.0
11-9 22.1% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.6 21.5
10-10 28.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.6 28.3
9-11 21.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 21.1
8-12 10.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.8
7-13 3.2% 3.2
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 16.0 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 15.5 47.8 52.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%
Lose Out 0.3%