Arkansas Little Rock
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.9#289
Expected Predictive Rating-3.1#227
Pace74.3#69
Improvement-2.0#320

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#305
First Shot-2.9#266
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#298
Layup/Dunks-1.4#226
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.4#354
Freethrows+2.6#35
Improvement-0.7#252

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#237
First Shot-0.2#176
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#287
Layups/Dunks+0.2#184
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#5
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.5#345
Freethrows+2.0#66
Improvement-1.3#286
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 2.1% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.6 15.5
.500 or above 8.4% 19.2% 8.1%
.500 or above in Conference 19.5% 30.3% 19.2%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.8% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 31.7% 24.7% 31.9%
First Four0.4% 0.7% 0.4%
First Round1.0% 2.1% 1.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Away) - 2.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 93 - 13
Quad 47 - 610 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 154   Southern Illinois W 69-66 33%     1 - 0 +0.8 -5.9 +6.6
  Nov 17, 2021 130   @ Loyola Marymount L 63-82 13%     1 - 1 -13.7 -15.3 +3.4
  Nov 21, 2021 218   Sam Houston St. L 59-77 33%     1 - 2 -20.4 -14.4 -6.2
  Nov 22, 2021 312   Northern Illinois W 67-60 56%     2 - 2 -1.4 -5.6 +4.4
  Nov 26, 2021 142   @ Tulsa L 63-77 14%     2 - 3 -9.2 -8.1 -1.2
  Dec 01, 2021 42   @ Colorado St. L 66-86 3%    
  Dec 04, 2021 24   @ Arkansas L 65-88 1%    
  Dec 08, 2021 93   Missouri St. L 70-80 18%    
  Dec 14, 2021 340   @ Central Arkansas W 77-74 62%    
  Dec 21, 2021 149   Jacksonville St. L 66-71 32%    
  Dec 30, 2021 176   Georgia Southern L 66-69 39%    
  Jan 01, 2022 141   Georgia St. L 73-79 30%    
  Jan 06, 2022 263   @ Louisiana Monroe L 71-75 35%    
  Jan 08, 2022 186   @ Louisiana L 71-80 22%    
  Jan 13, 2022 229   @ Arkansas St. L 67-74 28%    
  Jan 15, 2022 229   Arkansas St. L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 20, 2022 138   Texas St. L 64-70 30%    
  Jan 22, 2022 234   Texas Arlington L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 27, 2022 227   @ Coastal Carolina L 70-77 28%    
  Jan 29, 2022 172   @ Appalachian St. L 62-72 20%    
  Feb 03, 2022 186   Louisiana L 74-77 41%    
  Feb 05, 2022 263   Louisiana Monroe W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 10, 2022 157   @ South Alabama L 66-76 18%    
  Feb 12, 2022 240   @ Troy L 66-72 31%    
  Feb 17, 2022 234   @ Texas Arlington L 67-73 31%    
  Feb 19, 2022 138   @ Texas St. L 61-73 14%    
  Feb 24, 2022 172   Appalachian St. L 65-69 38%    
  Feb 26, 2022 227   Coastal Carolina L 73-74 48%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.2 2.4 3rd
4th 0.5 1.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.9 4th
5th 0.3 2.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 5.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 3.0 1.0 0.0 5.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 4.2 1.4 0.1 7.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 4.6 3.0 0.1 9.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 4.9 4.4 0.5 11.1 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 4.8 5.3 1.3 0.0 12.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.2 6.1 6.5 2.0 0.1 18.3 11th
12th 0.5 2.7 5.6 6.1 4.7 1.6 0.2 21.4 12th
Total 0.5 2.7 6.1 9.4 12.3 14.2 13.5 12.0 9.9 7.3 6.0 3.1 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 98.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 50.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 23.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 14.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 0.1
15-3 0.1% 14.9% 14.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 31.3% 31.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 0.9% 5.4% 5.4% 15.0 0.0 0.8
12-6 1.6% 10.6% 10.6% 15.2 0.1 0.0 1.4
11-7 3.1% 4.7% 4.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 3.0
10-8 6.0% 4.6% 4.6% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.7
9-9 7.3% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 7.2
8-10 9.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 9.8
7-11 12.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 12.0
6-12 13.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 13.4
5-13 14.2% 14.2
4-14 12.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.2
3-15 9.4% 9.4
2-16 6.1% 6.1
1-17 2.7% 2.7
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 98.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%