Arkansas Little Rock
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.2#332
Expected Predictive Rating-12.9#344
Pace74.2#41
Improvement+1.2#47

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#273
First Shot-4.9#322
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#59
Layup/Dunks-4.7#340
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#6
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#333
Freethrows-0.7#243
Improvement+0.0#200

Defense
Total Defense-7.1#346
First Shot-6.2#350
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#265
Layups/Dunks-4.1#329
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#42
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#310
Freethrows-0.3#213
Improvement+1.2#30
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.9% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 5.3% 14.6% 2.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 23.1% 9.8% 26.8%
First Four1.2% 1.9% 1.0%
First Round0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Away) - 21.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 48 - 148 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 130   @ Southern Illinois L 63-94 9%     0 - 1 -26.0 -5.0 -20.6
  Nov 14, 2022 338   @ Central Arkansas L 71-82 42%     0 - 2 -19.2 -15.1 -2.7
  Nov 17, 2022 223   @ East Tennessee St. L 76-84 18%     0 - 3 -8.2 -3.5 -3.9
  Nov 20, 2022 327   Jackson St. W 94-91 58%     1 - 3 -9.2 +10.5 -19.8
  Nov 23, 2022 21   @ Indiana L 68-87 2%     1 - 4 -2.5 -1.7 +0.4
  Nov 26, 2022 297   @ Miami (OH) L 67-80 29%     1 - 5 -17.6 -3.4 -15.7
  Nov 30, 2022 88   @ San Francisco L 68-90 5%     1 - 6 -13.6 -5.7 -6.5
  Dec 06, 2022 38   @ Memphis L 71-87 2%     1 - 7 -1.8 -1.9 +1.7
  Dec 17, 2022 257   @ Jacksonville St. L 62-72 23%     1 - 8 -12.3 -9.8 -3.0
  Dec 20, 2022 338   Central Arkansas W 75-66 63%     2 - 8 -4.7 -6.7 +1.8
  Dec 22, 2022 311   @ Arkansas St. L 75-77 32%     2 - 9 -7.4 +6.3 -13.8
  Dec 29, 2022 296   Tennessee Martin W 88-74 49%     3 - 9 1 - 0 +4.1 +1.2 +1.4
  Dec 31, 2022 321   @ Tennessee St. L 69-94 36%     3 - 10 1 - 1 -31.4 -15.6 -13.3
  Jan 04, 2023 352   Lindenwood L 62-67 71%     3 - 11 1 - 2 -21.0 -13.0 -8.3
  Jan 07, 2023 251   Southeast Missouri St. L 68-74 40%     3 - 12 1 - 3 -13.5 -10.2 -3.1
  Jan 12, 2023 270   @ Southern Indiana L 67-74 24%     3 - 13 1 - 4 -9.9 -7.6 -2.4
  Jan 14, 2023 343   @ Eastern Illinois L 63-70 46%     3 - 14 1 - 5 -16.0 -17.8 +2.3
  Jan 19, 2023 303   Tennessee Tech L 75-77 51%     3 - 15 1 - 6 -12.5 +2.4 -15.1
  Jan 21, 2023 321   Tennessee St. W 89-77 57%     4 - 15 2 - 6 +0.1 +3.1 -3.7
  Jan 26, 2023 278   @ Morehead St. L 72-76 26%     4 - 16 2 - 7 -7.4 -0.6 -6.9
  Jan 28, 2023 303   @ Tennessee Tech W 91-89 31%     5 - 16 3 - 7 -3.0 +6.3 -9.5
  Feb 02, 2023 251   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 76-84 22%    
  Feb 04, 2023 238   SIU Edwardsville L 72-76 38%    
  Feb 09, 2023 278   Morehead St. L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 11, 2023 296   @ Tennessee Martin L 76-82 29%    
  Feb 16, 2023 270   Southern Indiana L 78-80 44%    
  Feb 18, 2023 343   Eastern Illinois W 77-73 66%    
  Feb 23, 2023 238   @ SIU Edwardsville L 69-78 20%    
  Feb 25, 2023 352   @ Lindenwood W 74-73 50%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.2 2.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.2 1.9 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 4.9 10.9 7.1 0.6 23.9 7th
8th 0.4 6.4 15.4 9.7 1.2 0.0 33.0 8th
9th 0.2 4.7 11.8 6.5 0.9 0.0 24.1 9th
10th 1.9 5.1 2.8 0.3 0.0 10.1 10th
Total 2.1 10.2 21.5 27.1 22.1 11.8 4.3 0.8 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 2.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.8% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.1 0.8
9-9 4.3% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.2 4.1
8-10 11.8% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.3 11.5
7-11 22.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 21.7
6-12 27.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.3 26.9
5-13 21.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 21.4
4-14 10.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.2
3-15 2.1% 2.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 16.0 1.2 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 8.0% 16.0 8.0
Lose Out 2.1%