Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -8.2 #302
Expected Predictive Rating -6.0 #262
Pace 65.0 #281
Improvement +2.9 #61

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #236 D+ C C- C D
Defense #330 D D+ D+ C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #153 1.11 #228 -0.3 #188
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #41 0.77 #157 +3.2 #41
Three Pointers 32% #341 0.94 #277 -5.8 #339
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #266 -2.9 #265
Freethrows 0.30 #202 72% #183 0.22 #193
Second Chance 34.0% #84 0.88 #341 0.30 #208
Turnovers 17.9% #244
Total Offense -2.4 #236

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #120 1.17 #196 -1.6 #229
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #321 0.84 #311 +1.2 #93
Three Pointers 43% #100 1.14 #337 -4.0 #329
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #310 -4.3 #311
Freethrows 0.33 #269 70% #76 0.23 #237
Second Chance 36.6% #349 0.95 #81 0.35 #269
Turnovers 15.4% #277
Total Defense -5.8 #330

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.9% #304 1.6% #314
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.9% #237 6.8% #305
Possession Length 18.7 #317 16.7 #81
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #273 0.23 #343
Improvement +3.6 #31 -0.7 #231

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 6.3% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 16.5% 37.0% 11.1%
.500 or above in Conference 94.2% 98.9% 92.9%
Conference Champion 2.5% 10.5% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.4% 3.2% 2.2%
First Round2.5% 5.0% 1.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Away) - 20.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 31 - 8
Quad 413 - 813 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 75 @Wake Forest L 65 - 81 5% -8  0 - 1 -5 -10 F D+ D- +7 A D A+
 Sun, Nov 9 35 @Georgia L 81 - 120 2% -21  0 - 2 -22 +5 D- A+ C -22 F F D
 Tue, Nov 11 37 @Clemson L 56 - 83 2% -17  0 - 3 -10 +3 F A+ C -18 C- F+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 132 @East Tennessee St. L 62 - 77 12% -2  0 - 4 -10 -4 C- F+ F -7 B D- D+
 Sat, Nov 22 355 Louisiana Monroe W 83 - 80 72% +0  1 - 4 -11 +2 C- C C+ -13 D+ C F+
 Sat, Nov 29 338 @IU Indianapolis L 80 - 85 50% -2  1 - 5 -13 -10 F F F -2 F A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 105 @Murray St. L 52 - 84 8% -10  1 - 6 -25 -18 F+ F C -8 B- D C+
 Sat, Dec 6 265 @Presbyterian L 72 - 80 30% -3  1 - 7 -11 +1 B F C -12 F+ F A
 Tue, Dec 16 293 Arkansas Little Rock W 78 - 64 59% +10  2 - 7 1 - 0 +3 -5 D C F +7 B+ C C
 Sat, Dec 20 334 @Southern Indiana W 64 - 60 OT 49% -5  3 - 7 2 - 0 -4 -2 F D A- -2 C- B- C
 Thu, Jan 1 241 @Lindenwood L 64 - 77 26% -6  3 - 8 2 - 1 -15 -7 F+ D+ C- -8 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 246 @SIU Edwardsville W 73 - 72 27% -2  4 - 8 3 - 1 -1 +11 A+ D F -11 F+ D F+
 Thu, Jan 8 200 Tennessee Martin L 68 - 76 39% +3  4 - 9 3 - 2 -13 +4 C B+ D -19 F D F
 Sat, Jan 10 233 Southeast Missouri St. W 71 - 69 45% -4  5 - 9 4 - 2 -5 +8 A+ D+ D+ -13 C+ C F
 Thu, Jan 15 237 @Tennessee St. L 100 - 105 OT 26% -5  5 - 10 4 - 3 -6 +16 C- C A+ -22 F F+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 319 @Tennessee Tech W 76 - 70 44% +7  6 - 10 5 - 3 -1 +7 F+ A- A- -7 B- F F
 Thu, Jan 22 362 Western Illinois W 71 - 66 86% +1  7 - 10 6 - 3 -15 -4 F A C -10 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 323 Eastern Illinois W 73 - 68 68% +0  8 - 10 7 - 3 -8 +7 B+ A F -14 B F C-
 Thu, Jan 29 246 SIU Edwardsville W 67 - 65 49% -2  9 - 10 8 - 3 -6 -0 C+ F A- -6 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 241 Lindenwood L 78 - 79 48% +2  9 - 11 8 - 4 -9 +1 D+ F+ A+ -9 F C+ B
 Thu, Feb 5 233 @Southeast Missouri St. L 70 - 82 25% -9  9 - 12 8 - 5 -13 -2 C+ C- D+ -11 F F B+
 Sat, Feb 7 200 @Tennessee Martin L 64 - 73 21%
 Thu, Feb 12 319 Tennessee Tech W 77 - 73 66%
 Sat, Feb 14 237 Tennessee St. L 77 - 78 47%
 Thu, Feb 19 323 @Eastern Illinois L 68 - 69 46%
 Sat, Feb 21 362 @Western Illinois W 73 - 67 69%
 Tue, Feb 24 334 Southern Indiana W 73 - 67 71%
 Thu, Feb 26 293 @Arkansas Little Rock L 70 - 74 36%
Totals 13 - 15 12 - 8 -8 -2 D+ C C- -6 D D+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.7 0.5 2.5 1st
2nd 1.0 6.7 4.0 0.3 11.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 6.9 8.0 0.3 15.6 3rd
4th 0.1 3.8 12.5 1.9 0.0 18.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 11.8 6.7 0.1 20.0 5th
6th 1.0 8.3 10.6 0.7 20.6 6th
7th 0.2 2.9 5.3 0.9 9.3 7th
8th 0.5 1.1 0.2 1.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.7 5.1 15.3 27.3 27.7 17.0 6.1 0.8 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 66.2% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.0
14-6 28.3% 1.7    0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.8% 18.2% 18.2% 15.4 0.1 0.1 0.6
14-6 6.1% 11.7% 11.7% 15.9 0.1 0.6 5.3
13-7 17.0% 7.5% 7.5% 15.9 0.1 1.2 15.7
12-8 27.7% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.9 26.8
11-9 27.3% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.5 26.8
10-10 15.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 15.1
9-11 5.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.1
8-12 0.7% 0.7
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 15.9 96.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 0.6%