Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.1 #304
Expected Predictive Rating -6.1 #258
Pace 66.5 #257
Improvement +0.7 #132

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #302 D- C C- D D+
Defense #276 D+ C- C C- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #152 1.07 #281 -1.5 #232
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #76 0.70 #247 +1.4 #102
Three Pointers 35% #305 0.92 #284 -4.8 #318
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #314 -4.8 #313
Freethrows 18.0 #151 72% #195 13.0 #159
Second Chance 31.9% #138 0.94 #296 0.30 #220
Turnovers 18.4% #281
Total Offense -4.8 #302

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #110 1.18 #190 -1.8 #240
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #335 0.91 #342 +1.1 #116
Three Pointers 44% #89 1.05 #230 -2.4 #280
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #277 -3.2 #278
Freethrows 18.6 #244 73% #195 13.5 #117
Second Chance 37.5% #352 0.87 #20 0.32 #194
Turnovers 15.6% #246
Total Defense -3.3 #276

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #265 1.9% #325
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.3% #307 4.2% #257
Possession Length 18.6 #317 16.4 #53
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #275 0.28 #362
Improvement +0.4 #158 +0.4 #158

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.6% 7.7% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 20.0% 29.8% 11.1%
.500 or above in Conference 69.2% 81.3% 58.2%
Conference Champion 8.9% 14.3% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.5% 2.2%
First Four3.3% 4.2% 2.4%
First Round3.9% 5.7% 2.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Home) - 47.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 41 - 8
Quad 412 - 912 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 60 @Wake Forest L 65-81 4%     -8.4   0 - 1 -4.0 -8.6 +6.5
  Sun, Nov 9 24 @Georgia L 81-120 2%     -21.0   0 - 2 -20.4 +5.9 -21.5
  Tue, Nov 11 39 @Clemson L 56-83 2%     -16.8   0 - 3 -11.2 +1.6 -17.4
  Fri, Nov 21 129 @East Tennessee St. L 62-77 12%     -1.7   0 - 4 -10.1 -4.3 -6.9
  Sat, Nov 22 356 Louisiana Monroe W 83-80 71%     0.3   1 - 4 -10.9 +1.5 -12.4
  Sat, Nov 29 353 @IU Indianapolis L 80-85 58%     -2.1   1 - 5 -15.2 -11.4 -3.0
  Tue, Dec 2 92 @Murray St. L 52-84 7%     -9.7   1 - 6 -23.0 -16.9 -7.4
  Sat, Dec 6 276 @Presbyterian L 72-80 33%     -2.7   1 - 7 -11.4 +1.3 -13.0
  Tue, Dec 16 302 Arkansas Little Rock W 78-64 61%     10.1   2 - 7 1 - 0 +3.0 -3.9 +6.0
  Sat, Dec 20 330 @Southern Indiana W 64-60 OT 47%     -5.2   3 - 7 2 - 0 -3.4 -3.4 +0.4
  Thu, Jan 1 234 @Lindenwood L 64-77 26%     -5.8   3 - 8 2 - 1 -14.2 -7.1 -7.2
  Sat, Jan 3 262 @SIU Edwardsville W 73-72 31%     -1.8   4 - 8 3 - 1 -1.8 +9.6 -11.4
  Thu, Jan 8 236 Tennessee Martin L 68-69 47%    
  Sat, Jan 10 220 Southeast Missouri St. L 72-74 43%    
  Thu, Jan 15 230 @Tennessee St. L 70-77 25%    
  Sat, Jan 17 314 @Tennessee Tech L 72-74 42%    
  Thu, Jan 22 357 Western Illinois W 72-63 79%    
  Sat, Jan 24 319 Eastern Illinois W 69-65 65%    
  Thu, Jan 29 262 SIU Edwardsville W 67-66 54%    
  Sat, Jan 31 234 Lindenwood L 73-74 47%    
  Thu, Feb 5 220 @Southeast Missouri St. L 69-77 24%    
  Sat, Feb 7 236 @Tennessee Martin L 65-72 27%    
  Thu, Feb 12 314 Tennessee Tech W 75-71 63%    
  Sat, Feb 14 230 Tennessee St. L 73-74 45%    
  Thu, Feb 19 319 @Eastern Illinois L 66-68 44%    
  Sat, Feb 21 357 @Western Illinois W 69-66 60%    
  Tue, Feb 24 330 Southern Indiana W 73-68 69%    
  Thu, Feb 26 302 @Arkansas Little Rock L 68-71 39%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 2.6 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 8.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 4.2 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 10.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 5.1 4.4 1.0 0.1 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.6 5.5 1.2 0.1 13.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 5.5 6.8 1.5 0.1 14.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 4.1 6.4 2.0 0.1 13.1 6th
7th 0.5 3.2 5.6 2.2 0.1 11.6 7th
8th 0.3 1.8 4.0 2.1 0.1 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.4 1.4 0.2 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.6 5.2 9.1 12.7 15.4 16.0 13.7 10.8 6.8 4.0 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 98.3% 0.6    0.5 0.0
16-4 90.6% 1.6    1.3 0.3
15-5 71.9% 2.8    1.8 0.9 0.2 0.0
14-6 37.6% 2.6    0.7 1.1 0.6 0.1
13-7 9.6% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.9% 8.9 4.6 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 44.0% 44.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.6% 25.0% 25.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-4 1.8% 25.4% 25.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3
15-5 4.0% 23.1% 23.1% 15.9 0.1 0.8 3.0
14-6 6.8% 17.0% 17.0% 15.9 0.1 1.0 5.6
13-7 10.8% 11.0% 11.0% 15.9 0.1 1.1 9.6
12-8 13.7% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7 13.0
11-9 16.0% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.5 15.5
10-10 15.4% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.3 15.1
9-11 12.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.6
8-12 9.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.1
7-13 5.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.2
6-14 2.6% 2.6
5-15 0.9% 0.9
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 4.9 94.4 0.0%