Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.4#307
Expected Predictive Rating-8.3#297
Pace67.4#240
Improvement+0.0#180

Offense
Total Offense-5.6#322
First Shot-6.2#343
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#127
Layup/Dunks-2.7#282
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#78
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#326
Freethrows+0.1#169
Improvement-1.2#269

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#272
First Shot+0.4#155
After Offensive Rebounds-3.2#347
Layups/Dunks+0.3#168
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#150
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#184
Freethrows-0.4#207
Improvement+1.2#103
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 8.0% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 14.5% 28.8% 10.1%
.500 or above in Conference 55.3% 75.7% 49.0%
Conference Champion 7.0% 15.8% 4.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 1.0% 4.4%
First Four3.0% 4.8% 2.4%
First Round3.0% 5.8% 2.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lindenwood (Away) - 23.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 41 - 8
Quad 411 - 911 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 61 @Wake Forest L 65-81 4%     0 - 1 -4.4 -9.7 +7.3
  Sun, Nov 9 21 @Georgia L 81-120 1%     0 - 2 -20.1 +6.4 -21.7
  Tue, Nov 11 41 @Clemson L 56-83 2%     0 - 3 -11.8 +0.4 -16.7
  Fri, Nov 21 140 @East Tennessee St. L 62-77 12%     0 - 4 -10.7 -5.3 -6.6
  Sat, Nov 22 359 Louisiana Monroe W 83-80 74%     1 - 4 -11.9 +1.3 -13.2
  Sat, Nov 29 356 @IU Indianapolis L 80-85 60%     1 - 5 -16.0 -11.1 -4.2
  Tue, Dec 2 99 @Murray St. L 52-84 7%     1 - 6 -23.7 -17.5 -7.5
  Sat, Dec 6 285 @Presbyterian L 72-80 32%     1 - 7 -11.6 +1.4 -13.3
  Tue, Dec 16 309 Arkansas Little Rock W 78-64 62%     2 - 7 1 - 0 +2.5 -4.3 +5.9
  Sat, Dec 20 341 @Southern Indiana W 64-60 OT 50%     3 - 7 2 - 0 -4.4 -3.9 +0.0
  Thu, Jan 1 224 @Lindenwood L 70-78 24%    
  Sat, Jan 3 248 @SIU Edwardsville L 64-70 27%    
  Thu, Jan 8 213 Tennessee Martin L 68-70 43%    
  Sat, Jan 10 211 Southeast Missouri St. L 73-75 42%    
  Thu, Jan 15 238 @Tennessee St. L 68-75 26%    
  Sat, Jan 17 284 @Tennessee Tech L 70-75 33%    
  Thu, Jan 22 355 Western Illinois W 72-63 78%    
  Sat, Jan 24 325 Eastern Illinois W 70-66 65%    
  Thu, Jan 29 248 SIU Edwardsville L 67-68 48%    
  Sat, Jan 31 224 Lindenwood L 73-75 45%    
  Thu, Feb 5 211 @Southeast Missouri St. L 70-78 23%    
  Sat, Feb 7 213 @Tennessee Martin L 65-73 24%    
  Thu, Feb 12 284 Tennessee Tech W 73-72 54%    
  Sat, Feb 14 238 Tennessee St. L 71-72 47%    
  Thu, Feb 19 325 @Eastern Illinois L 67-69 44%    
  Sat, Feb 21 355 @Western Illinois W 69-66 59%    
  Tue, Feb 24 341 Southern Indiana W 73-67 71%    
  Thu, Feb 26 309 @Arkansas Little Rock L 68-71 40%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.9 2.0 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.0 1st
2nd 0.2 1.6 3.3 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 8.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.7 2.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 10.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.1 3.4 0.5 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 1.2 5.3 4.5 0.8 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.8 5.7 1.1 0.0 12.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.3 5.6 1.7 0.1 12.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 3.6 5.2 1.9 0.1 11.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 3.6 1.5 0.1 8.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.9 0.9 0.1 5.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.9 5.8 9.0 11.9 13.7 14.5 12.9 10.7 7.5 4.9 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 98.3% 0.6    0.5 0.0
16-4 89.2% 1.3    1.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 68.7% 1.9    1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 41.2% 2.0    0.7 0.9 0.4 0.0
13-7 11.9% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.0% 7.0 3.8 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 27.7% 27.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.6% 33.7% 33.7% 15.6 0.1 0.1 0.4
16-4 1.5% 28.7% 28.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1
15-5 2.7% 22.3% 22.3% 15.9 0.1 0.6 2.1
14-6 4.9% 16.8% 16.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8 4.0
13-7 7.5% 10.9% 10.9% 16.0 0.0 0.8 6.7
12-8 10.7% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7 10.0
11-9 12.9% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4 12.5
10-10 14.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 14.3
9-11 13.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 13.5
8-12 11.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.8
7-13 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.9
6-14 5.8% 5.8
5-15 2.9% 2.9
4-16 1.1% 1.1
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.1 95.6 0.0%