IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.3	#293
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	61.8	#334
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.2	#318

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.1	#245

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.2%	14.4%	6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	17.1	14.6	15.3

.500 or above	34.8%	66.6%	33.5%
.500 or above in Conference	55.5%	77.8%	54.6%
Conference Champion	8.8%	18.4%	8.4%
Last Place in Conference	8.1%	2.2%	8.4%

First Four	2.3%	1.7%	2.3%
First Round	7.0%	14.0%	6.7%
Second Round	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Wake Forest (Away) - 3.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	1 - 4	1 - 8
Quad 4	11 - 8	13 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2025	67	@ Wake Forest	L	56-75	4%
Nov 09, 2025	51	@ Georgia	L	55-76	3%
Nov 11, 2025	42	@ Clemson	L	51-74	2%
Nov 21, 2025	152	@ East Tennessee St.	L	58-69	17%
Nov 22, 2025	348	Louisiana Monroe	W	68-63	66%
Nov 29, 2025	359	@ IU Indianapolis	W	67-63	64%
Dec 02, 2025	127	@ Murray St.	L	57-69	14%
Dec 06, 2025	267	@ Presbyterian	L	61-65	35%
Dec 16, 2025	177	Arkansas Little Rock	L	63-66	40%
Dec 20, 2025	298	@ Southern Indiana	L	65-68	41%
Jan 01, 2026	327	@ Lindenwood	L	66-67	49%
Jan 03, 2026	240	@ SIU Edwardsville	L	60-66	31%
Jan 08, 2026	323	Tennessee Martin	W	68-63	68%
Jan 10, 2026	231	Southeast Missouri St.	L	66-67	49%
Jan 15, 2026	259	@ Tennessee St.	L	66-71	34%
Jan 17, 2026	328	@ Tennessee Tech	L	66-67	49%
Jan 22, 2026	339	Western Illinois	W	66-59	72%
Jan 24, 2026	322	Eastern Illinois	W	65-60	67%
Jan 29, 2026	240	SIU Edwardsville	W	64-63	50%
Jan 31, 2026	327	Lindenwood	W	69-63	68%
Feb 05, 2026	231	@ Southeast Missouri St.	L	63-69	30%
Feb 07, 2026	323	@ Tennessee Martin	L	65-66	48%
Feb 12, 2026	328	Tennessee Tech	W	70-64	68%
Feb 14, 2026	259	Tennessee St.	W	69-68	53%
Feb 19, 2026	322	@ Eastern Illinois	L	62-63	48%
Feb 21, 2026	339	@ Western Illinois	W	63-62	53%
Feb 24, 2026	298	Southern Indiana	W	68-65	61%
Feb 26, 2026	177	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	60-69	23%
Projected Record						12 - 16	10 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.4	1.2	2.0	2.2	1.7	0.9	0.3	0.1		8.8	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	1.0	2.6	3.4	2.4	1.1	0.2	0.0				10.7	2nd
3rd											0.2	1.2	3.7	3.6	1.9	0.4	0.1						11.0	3rd
4th										0.1	1.5	4.0	3.7	1.3	0.2	0.0							10.9	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.5	4.3	3.6	1.0	0.1									10.5	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	1.4	4.0	3.4	0.9	0.1										10.0	6th
7th						0.0	0.1	1.5	3.7	3.4	0.8	0.1											9.5	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	1.4	3.5	3.0	0.7	0.0												8.9	8th
9th				0.0	0.3	1.4	2.9	2.5	0.7	0.0													7.8	9th
10th		0.0	0.1	0.6	1.5	2.4	1.6	0.5	0.0														6.9	10th
11th	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.4	1.3	0.7	0.2	0.0															5.0	11th

Total	0.1	0.4	1.0	2.0	3.1	4.9	6.2	8.2	9.0	9.7	10.2	9.9	9.5	8.0	6.5	4.7	3.3	2.0	0.9	0.3	0.1			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
19-1	100.0%	0.3		0.3
18-2	95.4%	0.9		0.8	0.1
17-3	87.9%	1.7		1.4	0.3
16-4	66.6%	2.2		1.6	0.6	0.1
15-5	41.2%	2.0		1.0	0.7	0.2	0.0
14-6	17.8%	1.2		0.4	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-7	4.9%	0.4		0.0	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-8	0.5%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	8.8%	8.8		5.7	2.3	0.6	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.1%		64.1%	64.1%		12.4												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
19-1	0.3%		46.4%	46.4%		13.3												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.2
18-2	0.9%		41.4%	41.4%		13.7													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.5
17-3	2.0%		34.9%	34.9%		15.1													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	1.3
16-4	3.3%		29.9%	29.9%		15.7														0.1	0.2	0.5	0.2	2.3
15-5	4.7%		27.4%	27.4%		16.9														0.0	0.2	0.7	0.5	3.4
14-6	6.5%		18.6%	18.6%		18.7														0.0	0.0	0.5	0.9	5.3
13-7	8.0%		12.6%	12.6%		18.7														0.0	0.0	0.3	0.9	7.0
12-8	9.5%		7.3%	7.3%		18.6															0.0	0.2	0.6	8.8
11-9	9.9%		3.9%	3.9%		18.1																0.0	0.4	9.5
10-10	10.2%		1.8%	1.8%		17.7																0.0	0.2	10.0
9-11	9.7%		1.2%	1.2%		16.6																	0.1	9.6
8-12	9.0%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	8.9
7-13	8.2%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	8.1
6-14	6.2%																							6.2
5-15	4.9%																							4.9
4-16	3.1%																							3.1
3-17	2.0%																							2.0
2-18	1.0%																							1.0
1-19	0.4%																							0.4
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		7.2%	7.2%	0.0%	17.1												0.0	0.1	0.4	1.0	2.6	4.0	92.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%