Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#279
Expected Predictive Rating-3.1#227
Pace63.3#308
Improvement+1.0#67

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#257
First Shot-1.5#236
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#269
Layup/Dunks-0.5#201
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#322
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#211
Freethrows+2.0#48
Improvement+1.4#21

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#280
First Shot-4.6#315
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#83
Layups/Dunks-5.8#355
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#39
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#152
Freethrows-1.2#270
Improvement-0.4#250
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.1% 16.0% 10.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 79.8% 88.2% 62.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.8% 96.7%
Conference Champion 37.7% 46.1% 20.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.7% 7.0% 6.2%
First Round10.2% 12.0% 6.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Home) - 67.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 22 - 6
Quad 413 - 615 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 16   @ Indiana L 53-88 3%     0 - 1 -18.1 -13.7 -3.6
  Nov 12, 2022 254   Bellarmine W 62-55 55%     1 - 1 -0.5 -8.6 +8.9
  Nov 15, 2022 23   @ West Virginia L 57-75 3%     1 - 2 -1.9 -9.4 +7.7
  Nov 18, 2022 85   @ Vanderbilt L 43-76 9%     1 - 3 -24.4 -27.5 +3.0
  Nov 26, 2022 78   @ Marshall L 59-83 8%     1 - 4 -14.6 -10.4 -4.1
  Dec 03, 2022 289   North Alabama L 75-81 63%     1 - 5 -15.5 -8.6 -6.6
  Dec 11, 2022 234   East Tennessee St. W 61-57 51%     2 - 5 -2.5 -3.3 +1.5
  Dec 14, 2022 222   @ Georgia Southern W 74-71 29%     3 - 5 +2.7 +6.2 -3.3
  Dec 17, 2022 227   @ Mercer L 52-79 29%     3 - 6 -27.5 -12.4 -19.4
  Dec 29, 2022 321   @ Tennessee St. W 83-75 51%     4 - 6 1 - 0 +1.6 +6.4 -4.7
  Dec 31, 2022 295   @ Tennessee Martin L 57-64 44%     4 - 7 1 - 1 -11.5 -16.4 +4.7
  Jan 05, 2023 270   Southern Indiana W 84-80 59%     5 - 7 2 - 1 -4.3 +3.2 -7.7
  Jan 07, 2023 345   Eastern Illinois W 69-59 79%     6 - 7 3 - 1 -4.5 -3.4 -0.2
  Jan 12, 2023 301   @ Tennessee Tech L 62-79 46%     6 - 8 3 - 2 -22.0 -8.3 -15.5
  Jan 14, 2023 250   Southeast Missouri St. L 86-91 55%     6 - 9 3 - 3 -12.4 +8.1 -20.4
  Jan 19, 2023 237   @ SIU Edwardsville W 67-58 32%     7 - 9 4 - 3 +7.8 +6.4 +2.7
  Jan 21, 2023 353   @ Lindenwood W 72-63 67%     8 - 9 5 - 3 -1.5 +9.7 -9.5
  Jan 26, 2023 332   Arkansas Little Rock W 76-72 74%     9 - 9 6 - 3 -8.9 -2.9 -5.9
  Jan 28, 2023 237   SIU Edwardsville W 55-50 52%     10 - 9 7 - 3 -1.6 -13.2 +12.1
  Feb 02, 2023 301   Tennessee Tech W 70-66 67%    
  Feb 04, 2023 270   @ Southern Indiana L 70-73 37%    
  Feb 09, 2023 332   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 11, 2023 250   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 70-74 34%    
  Feb 16, 2023 321   Tennessee St. W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 18, 2023 353   Lindenwood W 71-61 83%    
  Feb 23, 2023 345   @ Eastern Illinois W 69-66 59%    
  Feb 25, 2023 295   Tennessee Martin W 73-69 65%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 10.4 16.0 8.5 1.7 37.7 1st
2nd 0.2 6.7 12.6 3.3 0.1 22.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.3 10.5 3.3 0.1 16.2 3rd
4th 0.5 6.1 4.9 0.2 11.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.3 4.5 0.6 7.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.1 0.7 0.0 3.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 1.1 5.1 13.8 23.7 26.4 19.4 8.6 1.7 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 1.7    1.7
14-4 98.5% 8.5    7.6 0.9 0.0
13-5 82.5% 16.0    8.7 6.3 1.0 0.0
12-6 39.3% 10.4    1.7 4.2 3.4 1.0 0.1
11-7 4.5% 1.1    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 37.7% 37.7 19.7 11.5 4.7 1.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.7% 28.2% 28.2% 14.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.2
14-4 8.6% 25.2% 25.2% 15.6 0.1 0.9 1.3 6.5
13-5 19.4% 21.5% 21.5% 15.8 0.0 0.8 3.3 15.2
12-6 26.4% 13.6% 13.6% 15.9 0.0 0.5 3.1 22.8
11-7 23.7% 10.2% 10.2% 16.0 0.1 2.3 21.3
10-8 13.8% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 0.0 1.0 12.8
9-9 5.1% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.2 4.9
8-10 1.1% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 1.1
7-11 0.1% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 15.8 0.2 2.6 11.4 85.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 28.2% 14.9 6.1 18.1 4.0
Lose Out 0.1% 3.4% 16.0 3.4