Morehead St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.2 286
Expected Predictive Rating -4.0 230
Pace 64.7 282
Improvement +5.4 15

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 203 C- C- D+ C D+
Defense D- 329 D+ D+ D C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 139 C- 56% 220 +0.1 175
2 Pt. Jumpers 59% 18 C+ 40% 111 +3.4 38
Three Pointers 32% 342 C- 32% 243 -5.3 335
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.9 300 C- -1.0 207
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 232
Second Chance B- 34.1% 75 D- 0.88 342 C- 0.30 198
Turnovers D+ 18.1% 268
Freethrows C 0.30 199 C+ 74% 133 C 0.22 166
Total Offense C- -1.3 203

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 50% 151 C 10.7% 158
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 224 B+ 1.8% 15
Three Pointers C 85% 182 C 0.9% 173
Total D+ 51% 285 C+ 5.0% 112

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 118 C 58% 177 +1.4 226
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 331 D+ 40% 267 -1.7 59
Three Pointers 44% 92 D 37% 302 +3.2 317
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.9 323 D+ +2.0 256
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 272
Second Chance F+ 36.6% 351 B- 0.95 68 D+ 0.35 273
Turnovers D 14.6% 315
Freethrows D+ 0.33 258 C+ 72% 143 C- 0.24 247
Total Defense D- -5.8 329

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 54% 291 D+ 9.1% 249
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 270 C 5.4% 140
Three Pointers C- 85% 206 D+ 0.5% 273
Total D 61% 306 C- 4.7% 247

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.8 328 16.7 75
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 281 0.23 342
Improvement +5.0 #10 +0.4 #162

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13% 15% 8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 84% 93% 55%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 55% 67% 19%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four8% 8% 6%
First Round9% 10% 5%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Western Illinois (Away) - 76.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 21 - 7
Quad 414 - 716 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 61 @Wake Forest L 65 - 81 5% -8  21% 0 - 1 C- -4 F -13 F C- F+ A+ +11 A+ D A+
 Sun, Nov 9 37 @Georgia L 81 - 120 2% -21  0% 0 - 2 F -22 C+ +2 F+ A+ C F -19 F F D-
 Tue, Nov 11 38 @Clemson L 56 - 83 2% -17  0% 0 - 3 D -11 C +0 F A+ C F -15 C- F+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 131 @East Tennessee St. L 62 - 77 13% -2  42% 0 - 4 D -10 D- -6 C F+ F D -5 B+ F+ D
 Sat, Nov 22 353 Louisiana Monroe W 83 - 80 75% +0  56% 1 - 4 D -11 C- -1 C- C- C F -10 D+ C+ D-
 Sat, Nov 29 323 @IU Indianapolis L 80 - 85 51% -2  37% 1 - 5 D- -12 F -12 F F F C+ +0 F A C
 Tue, Dec 2 124 @Murray St. L 52 - 84 12% -10  17% 1 - 6 F -26 F -21 F F C D -6 B- D- C
 Sat, Dec 6 271 @Presbyterian L 72 - 80 36% -3  21% 1 - 7 D- -11 C- -2 B- F C+ F -10 F+ F A
 Tue, Dec 16 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 78 - 64 64% +10  85% 2 - 7 1 - 0 C+ +3 D- -8 D C+ F A +10 B+ C+ C
 Sat, Dec 20 341 @Southern Indiana W 64 - 60 OT 58% -5  13% 3 - 7 2 - 0 D+ -5 D- -6 F F+ B+ C+ +1 C- B B-
 Thu, Jan 1 260 @Lindenwood L 64 - 77 33% -6  2% 3 - 8 2 - 1 F+ -16 F+ -10 F+ C- D+ D -6 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 249 @SIU Edwardsville W 73 - 72 30% -2  31% 4 - 8 3 - 1 C -1 B+ +8 A+ D+ F F+ -9 F+ D F+
 Thu, Jan 8 217 Tennessee Martin L 68 - 76 46% +3  71% 4 - 9 3 - 2 D- -14 C +2 C B+ D F -17 F D- F
 Sat, Jan 10 227 Southeast Missouri St. W 71 - 69 48% -4  9% 5 - 9 4 - 2 C- -5 B +6 A+ D+ D F -11 C C F
 Thu, Jan 15 246 @Tennessee St. L 100 - 105 OT 29% -5  2% 5 - 10 4 - 3 D+ -7 A +12 D+ C A+ F -18 F D- D
 Sat, Jan 17 314 @Tennessee Tech W 76 - 70 47% +7  80% 6 - 10 5 - 3 C -0 B- +5 F+ A A- D+ -5 B- F F
 Thu, Jan 22 362 Western Illinois W 71 - 66 89% +1  56% 7 - 10 6 - 3 F+ -16 D- -7 F A D+ F+ -8 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 321 Eastern Illinois W 73 - 68 72% +0  43% 8 - 10 7 - 3 D -8 B- +4 B+ A F F -12 B F C+
 Thu, Jan 29 249 SIU Edwardsville W 67 - 65 53% -2  28% 9 - 10 8 - 3 D+ -6 D+ -2 C+ F+ B+ D+ -3 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 260 Lindenwood L 78 - 79 56% +2  59% 9 - 11 8 - 4 D -10 D+ -2 D F+ A D- -7 F C+ B
 Thu, Feb 5 227 @Southeast Missouri St. L 70 - 82 26% -9  0% 9 - 12 8 - 5 D- -13 D+ -3 B- C D F+ -10 F F A-
 Sat, Feb 7 217 @Tennessee Martin W 61 - 55 25% +0  40% 10 - 12 9 - 5 B- +6 C- -1 D+ C+ D A- +8 A+ B F
 Thu, Feb 12 314 Tennessee Tech W 73 - 66 69% +10  93% 11 - 12 10 - 5 D+ -5 C +0 C+ D C D+ -5 B+ F+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 246 Tennessee St. W 94 - 86 52% +6  82% 12 - 12 11 - 5 C +0 A+ +14 A A+ D+ F -14 C+ F+ F
 Thu, Feb 19 321 @Eastern Illinois W 73 - 70 50% +4  75% 13 - 12 12 - 5 C- -4 C+ +2 A F F+ D -6 C- F F
 Sat, Feb 21 362 @Western Illinois W 75 - 67 76%
 Tue, Feb 24 341 Southern Indiana W 75 - 67 77%
 Thu, Feb 26 299 @Arkansas Little Rock L 72 - 74 41%
Totals 15 - 13 14 - 6 -7 C- -1 B- C- D+ D- -6 C- C+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- C+ C- C- 40% 59% 32% D+ C- B- D- C- D+ C C+ C D- C D+ D D+ 41% 15% 44% D D+ F+ B- D+ D D+ C+ C-
1.07 56% 40% 32% -1 -1 0.98 34% 0.9 .30 18% .30 74% .22 1.17 58% 40% 37% +2 +1 1.08 37% 0.9 .35 15% .33 72% .22
Nov
7		 Wake Forest F D+ F F F 33% 10% 57% B- F D+ C C- F+ D+ A C A+ A B A A+ 54% 10% 36% F A+ F A+ D A+ F A+ D-
0.82 53% 20% 21% -15 +1 0.75 27% 1.0 .27 24% .28 82% .23 1.02 48% 40% 28% -8 +2 0.90 50% 0.9 .43 24% .49 60% .30
Nov
9		 Georgia C+ F D D+ F 44% 22% 35% C+ F+ A A+ A+ C A- D+ B F F A+ F F 48% 5% 48% F+ F F+ F F D- D C+ D+
1.01 38% 33% 32% -11 0 0.80 43% 1.3 .55 20% .31 65% .20 1.50 72% 0% 45% +13 +3 1.33 43% 1.4 .59 11% .37 73% .27
Nov
11		 Clemson C F C F F 27% 31% 42% D F A+ B- A+ C D- D+ D- F C F D D+ 37% 14% 49% B- C- F B- F+ F C+ D- C
0.94 33% 36% 21% -15 -2 0.67 43% 1.0 .43 18% .23 73% .16 1.39 61% 57% 38% +6 +1 1.16 41% 1.0 .41 8% .33 78% .26
Nov
21		 East Tennessee St. D- B+ B- B- B- 31% 33% 36% F C B+ F F+ F A+ D A+ D C- F A+ A 56% 13% 31% F B+ F A F+ D F C+ F
0.95 67% 38% 36% +4 -2 1.05 35% 0.5 .16 28% .51 71% .36 1.18 60% 50% 14% -7 +2 0.93 42% 0.9 .39 14% .59 76% .45
Nov
22		 Louisiana Monroe C- B- D- A+ C+ 36% 30% 34% F C- B F C- C A+ D A+ F A- F C+ C- 38% 14% 48% D- D+ F A+ C+ D- B- D- C+
1.17 65% 36% 44% +7 -1 1.13 42% 0.9 .39 16% .48 66% .32 1.13 45% 63% 32% -3 +1 0.98 34% 0.7 .23 14% .28 76% .21
Nov
29		 IU Indianapolis F B- F F F 47% 22% 31% D F C+ F F F A+ B A+ C+ F A C- F 29% 11% 60% D- F A+ B- A C B F+ B-
0.98 65% 18% 27% -4 0 0.94 38% 0.7 .26 27% .54 78% .42 1.04 83% 29% 34% +6 +1 1.16 18% 1.0 .18 16% .13 78% .10
Dec
2		 Murray St. F F A+ F F 49% 30% 21% C- F F F F C F F F D C B+ B B+ 46% 6% 48% F B- F A D- C F A- F
0.77 35% 50% 27% -10 0 0.81 23% 0.6 .13 16% .18 50% .09 1.25 59% 33% 30% -2 +2 1.02 48% 0.9 .45 16% .52 69% .36
Dec
6		 Presbyterian C- C- D+ A+ B- 44% 15% 40% C+ B- F F F C+ D+ B+ C- F D F C+ F+ 43% 20% 36% D- F+ F B+ F A F B F
1.06 57% 38% 43% +5 +1 1.13 21% 0.6 .12 15% .26 73% .19 1.18 63% 56% 31% +4 0 1.11 53% 0.9 .47 25% .59 63% .37
Dec
16		 Arkansas Little Rock D- B- F B+ D 57% 22% 22% C D B+ D+ C+ F A+ B+ A+ A C- B+ A+ A- 38% 32% 30% C- B+ A+ F C+ C F F+ F
1.05 65% 20% 40% +2 +1 1.09 42% 0.8 .35 24% .44 76% .34 0.86 61% 27% 21% -8 -1 0.83 18% 1.7 .29 19% .41 72% .30
Dec
20		 Southern Indiana D- F F+ C- F 54% 28% 18% C- F D F+ F+ B+ A- D- B C+ A+ A D- D+ 17% 25% 58% A C- F A+ B B- F F F
1.01 48% 29% 33% -8 0 0.86 29% 0.8 .23 13% .40 68% .27 0.95 25% 25% 36% -7 -2 0.83 40% 0.4 .18 19% .43 77% .33
Jan
1		 Lindenwood F+ C C- F F+ 40% 24% 36% D- F+ C- D+ C- D+ F+ D F+ D D+ F F F 55% 8% 37% F F A+ A+ A+ F D- A+ B-
0.92 60% 33% 22% -7 0 0.88 31% 1.0 .31 19% .27 67% .18 1.11 61% 75% 42% +9 +3 1.25 15% 0.4 .06 14% .37 50% .19
Jan
3		 SIU Edwardsville B+ A+ A+ D+ A+ 43% 19% 38% B A+ C- D D+ F A+ B- A+ F+ C+ F C F+ 38% 20% 42% F F+ F A- D F+ D+ F+ D
1.15 72% 50% 31% +7 +1 1.17 31% 0.9 .27 24% .45 77% .35 1.13 53% 60% 33% +2 0 1.06 39% 0.8 .33 14% .29 75% .22
Jan
8		 Tennessee Martin C C+ D+ F+ D+ 47% 13% 40% A C A+ F+ B+ D B+ C- B F D F F F 36% 18% 45% C- F F C+ D- F F C- F
1.10 62% 33% 28% -3 +2 1.00 51% 0.8 .40 21% .39 68% .27 1.23 63% 50% 40% +8 0 1.18 46% 0.8 .39 16% .52 67% .35
Jan
10		 Southeast Missouri St. B A A+ A A+ 41% 34% 24% F A+ A F D+ D C- C- D+ F F+ A A- C 41% 22% 37% B- C F+ A C F D- C D
1.18 71% 57% 40% +14 -2 1.27 38% 0.8 .29 20% .37 72% .27 1.14 65% 27% 28% -3 0 0.96 33% 1.0 .33 8% .38 67% .25
Jan
15		 Tennessee St. A F A A C 40% 26% 33% F+ D+ B D- C A+ A+ A+ A+ F F+ F F F 39% 34% 27% C+ F C F D- D F B+ F+
1.29 48% 53% 42% +4 -1 1.09 36% 0.9 .33 10% .49 85% .42 1.35 68% 47% 67% +20 -2 1.39 31% 1.3 .41 14% .39 69% .27
Jan
17		 Tennessee Tech B- D D- A- D 31% 39% 31% F F+ A+ D A A- B- B- B- D+ B- D+ A+ B 57% 21% 21% F B- D- F F F F A- F+
1.20 53% 32% 40% -1 -3 0.94 46% 1.1 .51 11% .32 78% .25 1.10 52% 40% 20% -8 +1 0.89 35% 1.3 .44 13% .40 68% .27
Jan
22		 Western Illinois D- C- F+ F F 48% 27% 25% D F A+ D A D+ B+ F D- F+ A+ D+ D- D+ 33% 25% 42% C- D+ C- F F F A- A+ A+
1.10 61% 31% 17% -7 0 0.88 50% 1.0 .52 16% .37 50% .18 1.03 35% 38% 36% -6 -1 0.88 26% 1.4 .36 11% .23 46% .10
Jan
24		 Eastern Illinois B- C B+ A+ A 38% 43% 20% F B+ A+ D+ A F A+ A+ A+ F A+ B- F B+ 45% 28% 28% D- B F B- F C+ F F F
1.17 60% 47% 50% +9 -3 1.15 52% 1.0 .52 27% .53 88% .46 1.09 24% 31% 46% -12 0 0.77 51% 0.9 .49 19% .48 83% .40
Jan
29		 SIU Edwardsville D+ B- D C B- 45% 34% 20% D+ C+ D- F+ F+ B+ A+ D A- D+ D+ B+ F F 33% 20% 47% F+ F B+ A+ A+ D+ A A A
1.04 60% 33% 33% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.8 .20 12% .42 71% .30 1.01 59% 30% 42% +4 0 1.10 23% 0.5 .11 17% .19 60% .11
Jan
31		 Lindenwood D+ B C+ F C- 41% 33% 27% F D D- F+ F+ A A+ A- A+ D- F A+ F F 30% 20% 50% B F B- C- C+ B F C- F
1.08 65% 38% 23% -2 -1 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 12% .47 77% .36 1.09 77% 0% 45% +6 -1 1.14 29% 1.1 .32 22% .51 69% .35
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Southeast Missouri St. D+ D A+ B- B- 48% 23% 29% C- B- D+ A- C D F B+ F F+ B F F F 51% 13% 36% F+ F F F+ F A- F C- F+
1.00 52% 64% 36% +4 0 1.10 24% 1.3 .32 20% .25 79% .20 1.17 50% 50% 47% +5 +2 1.15 37% 1.4 .50 21% .40 68% .27
Feb
7		 Tennessee Martin C- D D- A C 22% 41% 37% F D+ B+ D C+ D B+ A+ A+ A- A+ B A+ A+ 27% 7% 67% D- A+ F A+ B F F D+ F
1.01 56% 29% 40% -1 -4 0.93 39% 0.8 .33 22% .38 89% .34 0.91 42% 33% 20% -19 +1 0.67 45% 0.6 .25 15% .49 68% .33
Feb
12		 Tennessee Tech C A B D- B- 42% 32% 26% D- C+ B- F D C B A A- D+ B- A+ A+ A 50% 16% 34% F B+ F C- F+ F C C+ C+
1.17 71% 44% 31% +6 -1 1.12 35% 0.9 .32 14% .34 83% .28 1.06 52% 25% 24% -10 +1 0.84 38% 1.1 .41 11% .27 73% .20
Feb
14		 Tennessee St. A+ C A+ A+ A 54% 11% 35% B A A+ B A+ D+ A+ B A+ F A A+ F C+ 31% 33% 35% B C+ F C- F+ F F F F
1.36 60% 80% 50% +14 +2 1.35 44% 1.2 .52 20% .51 79% .40 1.24 47% 25% 41% -4 -2 0.90 39% 1.1 .41 10% .58 89% .51
Feb
19		 Eastern Illinois C+ C- A+ B- A 49% 13% 38% B- A D- F F F+ B D C+ D D+ C+ A+ C+ 48% 22% 30% F C- F+ F F F B- F D+
1.10 59% 100% 35% +10 +2 1.24 28% 0.6 .16 23% .37 74% .27 1.06 58% 33% 19% -8 0 0.87 31% 1.3 .40 14% .24 93% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.5 29.4 25.5 55.4 1st
2nd 0.0 7.9 18.4 26.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 13.5 13.8 3rd
4th 1.9 1.1 3.0 4th
5th 1.3 1.3 5th
6th 0.2 0.2 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 3.7 23.1 47.8 25.5 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 25.5    15.9 9.6
14-6 61.6% 29.4    1.1 9.5 16.4 2.4
13-7 2.4% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 55.4% 55.4 16.9 19.1 16.5 2.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 25.5% 18.2% 18.2% 15.8 0.0 0.9 3.7 20.8
14-6 47.8% 14.8% 14.8% 16.0 0.2 6.8 40.7
13-7 23.1% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.0 1.4 21.6
12-8 3.7% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.1 3.5
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 15.9 86.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.6% 100.0% 15.8 0.6 19.7 79.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 14.0%
Lose Out 2.0%