Lindenwood
Ohio Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.9 #250
Expected Predictive Rating -4.8 #239
Pace 78.9 #10
Improvement -1.3 #248

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #286 D B- D C C+
Defense #185 C- C- C+ C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #21 1.13 #210 +3.5 #72
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #169 0.62 #343 -1.3 #247
Three Pointers 34% #325 0.79 #362 -7.6 #355
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #327 -5.5 #328
Freethrows 0.31 #149 67% #328 0.21 #208
Second Chance 31.7% #153 1.16 #53 0.37 #82
Turnovers 18.8% #323
Total Offense -4.3 #286

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #9 1.20 #237 -5.8 #350
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #274 0.67 #52 +1.9 #50
Three Pointers 35% #324 1.03 #212 +2.5 #88
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #222 -1.3 #222
Freethrows 0.31 #222 71% #106 0.22 #207
Second Chance 32.8% #279 1.04 #179 0.34 #243
Turnovers 17.1% #138
Total Defense -0.6 #185

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #123 2.0% #339
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.6% #341 0.7% #194
Possession Length 15.8 #46 16.8 #85
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #31 0.20 #277
Improvement -1.1 #241 -0.2 #207

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.5% 16.8% 9.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 70.6% 81.3% 56.8%
.500 or above in Conference 90.7% 96.1% 83.7%
Conference Champion 11.4% 16.5% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.4% 3.7% 3.0%
First Round11.9% 15.1% 7.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Indiana (Away) - 56.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 415 - 816 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 15 @Texas Tech L 60 - 98 2% -19  0 - 1 -17 -10 F+ D- D+ -4 B- B+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 26 @Saint Louis L 66 - 109 3% -22  0 - 2 -25 -6 C+ A F -13 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 14 234 Charleston Southern W 83 - 77 47% -6  1 - 2 +2 +0 C+ D D- +1 C- B B
 Sun, Nov 16 297 @Alabama A&M L 65 - 74 49% -2  1 - 3 -14 -7 F C F -7 F D- B
 Thu, Nov 20 31 @Indiana L 53 - 73 3% -14  1 - 4 -2 -14 F C+ D +11 A+ C- D
 Mon, Nov 24 355 UMKC W 80 - 67 87% +6  2 - 4 -4 -5 C F D+ -0 C- B A+
 Tue, Dec 2 310 @Northern Illinois W 99 - 64 53% +22  3 - 4 +29 +19 F+ A+ A- +8 C A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 312 @Eastern Illinois W 82 - 74 54% -1  4 - 4 1 - 0 +2 +9 C- B+ C+ -7 B F F
 Thu, Dec 18 360 Western Illinois W 92 - 76 89% +13  5 - 4 2 - 0 -2 +6 C+ B+ D -9 D- D D+
 Tue, Dec 23 183 @Missouri St. L 65 - 70 28% -5  5 - 5 -4 -6 F D- A- +2 B D- F+
 Thu, Jan 1 299 Morehead St. W 77 - 64 73% +6  6 - 5 3 - 0 +2 -3 A- F C +5 C+ C+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 322 Southern Indiana W 83 - 80 77% +5  7 - 5 4 - 0 -10 +5 F+ A+ D- -15 F D B
 Tue, Jan 6 261 @SIU Edwardsville L 62 - 66 41% -2  7 - 6 4 - 1 -7 -9 F B+ F+ +2 B C B+
 Sat, Jan 10 279 Arkansas Little Rock L 74 - 82 68% -5  7 - 7 4 - 2 -18 -3 D C+ F -15 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 15 246 @Southeast Missouri St. W 88 - 76 38% +17  8 - 7 5 - 2 +10 +4 D A+ D- +5 B+ D B-
 Sat, Jan 17 231 @Tennessee Martin L 55 - 69 35% -4  8 - 8 5 - 3 -15 -16 F D- F +2 D+ D A+
 Thu, Jan 22 338 Tennessee Tech W 89 - 68 81% +19  9 - 8 6 - 3 +7 +3 B- A+ F +2 A- A B-
 Sat, Jan 24 229 Tennessee St. L 86 - 96 58% -5  9 - 9 6 - 4 -17 +0 C- C- D- -16 F C- B+
 Thu, Jan 29 322 @Southern Indiana W 75 - 73 56%
 Sat, Jan 31 299 @Morehead St. W 77 - 76 51%
 Tue, Feb 3 261 SIU Edwardsville W 72 - 68 63%
 Thu, Feb 5 279 @Arkansas Little Rock L 76 - 77 46%
 Thu, Feb 12 231 Tennessee Martin W 73 - 71 58%
 Sat, Feb 14 246 Southeast Missouri St. W 79 - 76 61%
 Thu, Feb 19 229 @Tennessee St. L 80 - 84 36%
 Sat, Feb 21 338 @Tennessee Tech W 78 - 75 62%
 Thu, Feb 26 312 Eastern Illinois W 74 - 67 74%
 Sat, Feb 28 360 @Western Illinois W 76 - 69 75%
Totals 15 - 13 12 - 8 -5 -4 D B- D -1 C- C- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.8 5.2 3.6 0.8 11.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 8.3 5.7 0.8 0.0 16.4 2nd
3rd 0.6 7.6 7.3 0.7 16.2 3rd
4th 0.2 4.1 9.9 1.4 15.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 8.4 3.3 0.1 13.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 5.6 5.5 0.3 12.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.2 4.7 1.0 0.0 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.4 0.8 0.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.4 6.5 12.9 19.6 22.6 18.9 11.6 4.3 0.9 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 96.5% 0.8    0.8 0.1
15-5 82.4% 3.6    2.2 1.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 44.6% 5.2    1.2 2.6 1.1 0.2
13-7 9.4% 1.8    0.0 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.4% 11.4 4.2 4.4 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.9% 49.7% 49.7% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4
15-5 4.3% 35.6% 35.6% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 2.8
14-6 11.6% 32.6% 32.6% 15.6 0.1 1.4 2.3 7.8
13-7 18.9% 20.2% 20.2% 15.7 0.0 0.9 2.9 15.1
12-8 22.6% 9.2% 9.2% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.7 20.6
11-9 19.6% 5.2% 5.2% 15.9 0.1 0.9 18.6
10-10 12.9% 4.6% 4.6% 15.9 0.1 0.5 12.3
9-11 6.5% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.2 6.2
8-12 2.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.4
7-13 0.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 15.6 86.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 14.1 15.3 62.4 22.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%