SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#238
Expected Predictive Rating-2.5#219
Pace71.0#104
Improvement-1.8#347

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#308
First Shot-4.5#313
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#172
Layup/Dunks-3.9#328
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#159
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#293
Freethrows+1.9#52
Improvement-1.6#344

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#155
First Shot+0.2#169
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#147
Layups/Dunks-0.7#213
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#206
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#76
Freethrows-1.6#297
Improvement-0.3#229
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.5% 43.3% 32.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 97.9% 99.3% 94.0%
.500 or above in Conference 91.2% 95.6% 79.5%
Conference Champion 11.1% 14.4% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four6.5% 5.6% 8.9%
First Round37.1% 40.4% 28.2%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Home) - 72.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 33 - 34 - 5
Quad 412 - 716 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2022 204   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 76-81 32%     0 - 1 -4.0 -5.4 +2.0
  Nov 15, 2022 46   @ Missouri L 80-105 7%     0 - 2 -12.2 -1.1 -8.2
  Nov 18, 2022 307   Fairleigh Dickinson W 79-78 65%     1 - 2 -7.0 -9.3 +2.2
  Nov 19, 2022 335   VMI W 93-67 74%     2 - 2 +15.5 +7.2 +6.7
  Nov 20, 2022 181   @ Longwood W 61-56 28%     3 - 2 +7.3 -9.4 +16.7
  Nov 26, 2022 259   @ UMKC W 64-54 44%     4 - 2 +7.6 -7.8 +15.4
  Dec 03, 2022 149   Troy W 78-72 42%     5 - 2 +4.2 +13.1 -8.4
  Dec 06, 2022 89   Bradley L 54-56 26%     5 - 3 +0.9 -11.5 +12.3
  Dec 10, 2022 234   @ Illinois St. L 71-77 39%     5 - 4 -7.0 +1.4 -8.7
  Dec 21, 2022 79   @ Saint Louis W 69-67 11%     6 - 4 +11.3 +4.3 +7.2
  Dec 29, 2022 303   Tennessee Tech W 64-51 74%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +2.5 -6.4 +10.7
  Dec 31, 2022 251   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 73-82 43%     7 - 5 1 - 1 -11.0 -1.0 -9.9
  Jan 05, 2023 321   Tennessee St. W 81-72 78%     8 - 5 2 - 1 -2.9 -7.0 +3.3
  Jan 07, 2023 270   @ Southern Indiana W 69-62 46%     9 - 5 3 - 1 +4.1 -5.1 +9.3
  Jan 12, 2023 343   @ Eastern Illinois W 80-62 69%     10 - 5 4 - 1 +9.0 +5.6 +3.7
  Jan 14, 2023 352   Lindenwood W 68-58 87%     11 - 5 5 - 1 -6.0 -7.9 +2.3
  Jan 19, 2023 278   Morehead St. L 58-67 68%     11 - 6 5 - 2 -17.9 -10.7 -8.6
  Jan 21, 2023 270   Southern Indiana L 72-82 67%     11 - 7 5 - 3 -18.3 -13.1 -4.3
  Jan 26, 2023 303   @ Tennessee Tech L 68-80 54%     11 - 8 5 - 4 -17.0 -10.3 -6.5
  Jan 28, 2023 278   @ Morehead St. L 50-55 48%     11 - 9 5 - 5 -8.4 -19.9 +11.0
  Feb 02, 2023 296   Tennessee Martin W 75-69 73%    
  Feb 04, 2023 332   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 76-72 62%    
  Feb 09, 2023 352   @ Lindenwood W 71-64 73%    
  Feb 11, 2023 343   Eastern Illinois W 74-63 85%    
  Feb 16, 2023 296   @ Tennessee Martin W 73-72 51%    
  Feb 18, 2023 321   @ Tennessee St. W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 23, 2023 332   Arkansas Little Rock W 78-69 80%    
  Feb 25, 2023 251   Southeast Missouri St. W 75-71 63%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 5.8 4.5 11.1 1st
2nd 0.3 6.2 9.1 1.2 16.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.4 12.3 3.0 0.0 18.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 10.3 6.8 0.2 18.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 7.1 9.2 1.1 0.0 18.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.7 6.6 1.5 0.0 12.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 3.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.8 6.7 15.4 24.7 27.2 18.1 5.7 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 79.3% 4.5    2.0 2.0 0.5 0.0
12-6 32.2% 5.8    0.6 2.2 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.8% 0.8    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.1% 11.1 2.6 4.3 2.9 1.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 5.7% 60.5% 60.5% 14.5 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.7 0.1 2.3
12-6 18.1% 52.5% 52.5% 15.1 0.1 1.4 5.8 2.3 8.6
11-7 27.2% 45.2% 45.2% 15.4 0.0 0.7 5.9 5.7 14.9
10-8 24.7% 36.7% 36.7% 15.6 0.1 3.2 5.8 15.6
9-9 15.4% 28.4% 28.4% 15.8 0.0 0.9 3.4 11.0
8-10 6.7% 21.5% 21.5% 16.0 0.0 1.4 5.2
7-11 1.8% 14.8% 14.8% 16.0 0.3 1.6
6-12 0.3% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 40.5% 40.5% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.3 3.7 17.5 19.1 59.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.7% 60.5% 14.5 0.1 3.2 26.5 29.0 1.8