SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.3 #253
Expected Predictive Rating -6.0 #260
Pace 62.2 #341
Improvement +1.4 #130

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #334 D C- C- D F+
Defense #131 B- C- C- D+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #324 1.04 #313 -5.3 #343
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #18 0.70 #267 +3.2 #41
Three Pointers 36% #284 1.00 #211 -2.9 #281
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #324 -5.0 #324
Freethrows 0.28 #274 68% #314 0.19 #305
Second Chance 28.6% #240 0.98 #241 0.28 #256
Turnovers 18.3% #266
Total Offense -6.5 #334

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #265 1.06 #63 +3.4 #71
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #140 0.79 #241 -0.8 #247
Three Pointers 43% #124 0.93 #68 +1.0 #135
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #65 +3.6 #65
Freethrows 0.33 #269 74% #289 0.25 #285
Second Chance 33.9% #305 1.00 #142 0.34 #246
Turnovers 16.0% #239
Total Defense +1.3 #131

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.5% #349 -0.6% #113
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.5% #295 -6.5% #61
Possession Length 18.8 #328 17.7 #260
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #354 0.20 #276
Improvement -0.1 #186 +1.5 #99

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.4% 15.1% 7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 84.5% 94.7% 78.7%
.500 or above in Conference 92.4% 98.4% 89.0%
Conference Champion 4.0% 8.7% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.0% 4.8% 3.5%
First Round8.5% 12.6% 6.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lindenwood (Away) - 36.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 32 - 22 - 3
Quad 414 - 1016 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 342 @Texas San Antonio W 77 - 60 63% +3  1 - 0 +8 -2 D- A- D- +10 A- A- F
 Mon, Nov 10 199 Indiana St. L 55 - 64 51% -6  1 - 1 -15 -21 F F F +6 A+ D A-
 Fri, Nov 14 163 @Drake W 61 - 59 22% +5  2 - 1 +5 -2 C- D C+ +7 A+ F D+
 Mon, Nov 17 37 @Wisconsin L 69 - 94 3% -12  2 - 2 -8 +6 C A- C- -16 D+ C F
 Fri, Nov 21 349 @Air Force L 63 - 77 65% -8  2 - 3 -23 -10 F+ D D -14 B+ F F
 Sun, Nov 23 316 Alabama St. W 83 - 68 66% +2  3 - 3 +5 +10 C- C- A+ -4 A D+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 350 @North Florida W 72 - 63 66% +1  4 - 3 -1 -7 D- D C- +7 A- C C
 Sat, Dec 6 273 Western Michigan L 73 - 83 65% -8  4 - 4 -19 -4 D D A+ -15 F F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 321 @Eastern Illinois L 72 - 76 OT 56% -0  4 - 5 0 - 1 -11 -2 B- F C -9 F F+ B
 Mon, Dec 22 362 @Western Illinois W 66 - 61 77% -3  5 - 5 1 - 1 -8 -12 F A+ F +4 D+ C+ B
 Thu, Jan 1 333 Southern Indiana W 59 - 55 79% +6  6 - 5 2 - 1 -10 -13 F B F +3 B- D- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 297 Morehead St. L 72 - 73 71% +2  6 - 6 2 - 2 -12 -1 C- C C+ -11 F B- A
 Tue, Jan 6 239 Lindenwood W 66 - 62 58% +2  7 - 6 3 - 2 -3 -8 D- D+ F+ +5 A+ F+ C-
 Thu, Jan 8 292 Arkansas Little Rock L 70 - 73 70% +6  7 - 7 3 - 3 -14 -0 D- B+ F -14 C D F
 Thu, Jan 15 202 @Tennessee Martin L 59 - 65 29% -3  7 - 8 3 - 4 -6 -5 F C- A+ -1 B+ D- D-
 Sat, Jan 17 237 @Southeast Missouri St. W 68 - 55 35% +16  8 - 8 4 - 4 +12 +3 C C B- +10 A+ A- B+
 Thu, Jan 22 242 Tennessee St. W 74 - 66 59% +2  9 - 8 5 - 4 +0 +4 B+ D- D+ -3 A D+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 322 Tennessee Tech W 62 - 58 77% +9  10 - 8 6 - 4 -9 -5 F C B- -3 B+ C F
 Thu, Jan 29 297 @Morehead St. L 65 - 67 49% +2  10 - 9 6 - 5 -7 -7 C F D+ -1 C- A- F
 Sat, Jan 31 333 @Southern Indiana W 58 - 46 59% +0  11 - 9 7 - 5 +4 -5 D- B- F +11 A B- B
 Tue, Feb 3 239 @Lindenwood L 67 - 71 36%
 Sat, Feb 7 292 @Arkansas Little Rock L 65 - 66 48%
 Thu, Feb 12 237 Southeast Missouri St. W 68 - 66 58%
 Sat, Feb 14 202 Tennessee Martin W 63 - 62 50%
 Thu, Feb 19 322 @Tennessee Tech W 68 - 66 57%
 Sat, Feb 21 242 @Tennessee St. L 68 - 72 36%
 Thu, Feb 26 362 Western Illinois W 70 - 56 91%
 Sat, Feb 28 321 Eastern Illinois W 65 - 57 76%
Totals 16 - 12 12 - 8 -5 -7 D C- C- +1 B- C- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.9 2.4 0.8 4.0 1st
2nd 1.2 7.9 4.1 0.5 13.7 2nd
3rd 0.4 8.0 7.0 0.4 15.8 3rd
4th 0.0 4.2 11.0 1.3 0.0 16.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 11.3 4.4 0.0 17.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 7.8 8.6 0.5 17.6 6th
7th 0.3 3.8 6.5 1.2 0.0 11.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.4 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 1.2 6.3 16.4 25.7 25.2 17.2 6.8 1.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 62.0% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.0
14-6 34.8% 2.4    0.5 1.1 0.7 0.1
13-7 5.3% 0.9    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 1.2% 33.1% 33.1% 14.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8
14-6 6.8% 29.5% 29.5% 15.6 0.0 0.7 1.2 4.8
13-7 17.2% 20.1% 20.1% 15.8 0.0 0.6 2.8 13.7
12-8 25.2% 10.1% 10.1% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.2 22.6
11-9 25.7% 5.2% 5.2% 15.9 0.1 1.3 24.3
10-10 16.4% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.5 15.9
9-11 6.3% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 6.2
8-12 1.2% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 1.2
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 15.8 89.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 14.6 45.0 47.5 7.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%