Eastern Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.8#347
Expected Predictive Rating-19.1#351
Pace70.9#135
Improvement-0.7#236

Offense
Total Offense-9.1#352
First Shot-4.8#310
After Offensive Rebound-4.3#356
Layup/Dunks-1.7#232
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#320
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#126
Freethrows-1.7#283
Improvement+0.4#124

Defense
Total Defense-4.7#311
First Shot-2.6#267
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#299
Layups/Dunks-3.1#275
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#287
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#241
Freethrows+3.6#10
Improvement-1.1#280
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 4.2% 6.7% 3.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 43.6% 34.9% 45.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Away) - 20.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 30 - 60 - 13
Quad 44 - 125 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 47   @ Northwestern L 56-80 2%     0 - 1 -11.4 -12.2 +1.3
  Nov 12, 2021 56   @ Saint Louis L 44-86 2%     0 - 2 -30.8 -24.5 -6.1
  Nov 15, 2021 304   Central Michigan L 61-62 39%     0 - 3 -12.0 -18.5 +6.5
  Nov 22, 2021 160   @ Eastern Kentucky L 43-82 6%     0 - 4 -35.5 -34.6 +3.2
  Nov 24, 2021 298   Albany L 62-64 27%     0 - 5 -9.3 -8.4 -1.0
  Nov 28, 2021 245   Evansville L 54-70 27%     0 - 6 -23.4 -17.0 -7.8
  Dec 01, 2021 312   @ Northern Illinois L 61-69 20%    
  Dec 07, 2021 132   @ Missouri L 58-77 3%    
  Dec 11, 2021 103   @ Butler L 53-74 2%    
  Dec 18, 2021 191   @ Western Illinois L 65-80 7%    
  Dec 21, 2021 214   @ Ball St. L 66-81 9%    
  Dec 29, 2021 134   @ Morehead St. L 57-76 4%    
  Jan 01, 2022 68   Belmont L 64-82 5%    
  Jan 06, 2022 89   Murray St. L 58-75 6%    
  Jan 08, 2022 277   @ Tennessee Tech L 66-77 18%    
  Jan 13, 2022 322   SIU Edwardsville L 68-70 45%    
  Jan 15, 2022 259   @ Austin Peay L 63-74 16%    
  Jan 20, 2022 89   @ Murray St. L 55-78 2%    
  Jan 22, 2022 303   Southeast Missouri St. L 72-75 40%    
  Jan 27, 2022 346   @ Tennessee Martin L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 29, 2022 321   Tennessee St. L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 03, 2022 322   @ SIU Edwardsville L 65-73 25%    
  Feb 05, 2022 303   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 69-78 22%    
  Feb 10, 2022 277   Tennessee Tech L 69-74 34%    
  Feb 12, 2022 346   Tennessee Martin W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 17, 2022 68   @ Belmont L 61-85 1%    
  Feb 19, 2022 321   @ Tennessee St. L 69-77 25%    
  Feb 24, 2022 134   Morehead St. L 60-73 13%    
  Feb 26, 2022 259   Austin Peay L 66-71 33%    
Projected Record 5 - 24 4 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 2.1 1.4 0.2 0.1 5.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 3.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.2 3.0 5.7 3.1 0.3 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.7 8.0 3.4 0.6 17.3 8th
9th 0.0 2.8 8.3 9.1 3.6 0.4 24.2 9th
10th 2.3 7.1 10.4 8.0 2.8 0.3 30.8 10th
Total 2.3 7.1 13.2 16.9 16.8 15.0 11.4 8.4 4.7 2.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.2
11-7 0.5% 0.5
10-8 1.0% 1.0
9-9 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.6
8-10 4.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.6
7-11 8.4% 8.4
6-12 11.4% 11.4
5-13 15.0% 15.0
4-14 16.8% 16.8
3-15 16.9% 16.9
2-16 13.2% 13.2
1-17 7.1% 7.1
0-18 2.3% 2.3
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.9%