Eastern Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.9 #323
Expected Predictive Rating -9.6 #318
Pace 65.2 #270
Improvement -1.8 #259

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #355 F+ D+ D+ C- D-
Defense #208 C D- B- D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #205 1.01 #337 -3.5 #296
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #19 0.61 #349 +1.7 #89
Three Pointers 32% #346 0.95 #275 -6.0 #342
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #358 -7.8 #359
Freethrows 0.28 #275 75% #102 0.21 #230
Second Chance 25.8% #308 1.01 #201 0.26 #288
Turnovers 18.9% #299
Total Offense -9.0 #355

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #147 1.27 #320 -3.1 #289
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #339 0.78 #230 +2.0 #45
Three Pointers 45% #59 0.89 #37 +0.6 #156
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #196 -0.5 #196
Freethrows 0.33 #252 78% #357 0.25 #302
Second Chance 35.3% #334 1.09 #279 0.39 #329
Turnovers 18.7% #77
Total Defense -1.0 #208

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.8% #328 1.7% #323
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -12.8% #349 -0.7% #170
Possession Length 18.7 #315 16.5 #62
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #167 0.19 #233
Improvement -1.3 #257 -0.5 #219

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.0% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 16.7% 31.9% 7.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 1.0% 0.7%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Away) - 38.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 50 - 9
Quad 49 - 1010 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 159 @Valparaiso L 63 - 66 12% -5  0 - 1 -0 -7 C- F F +7 A+ D A-
 Fri, Nov 7 248 Nicholls St. W 65 - 57 42% +5  1 - 1 +0 -10 F C+ C- +11 A+ A D+
 Tue, Nov 11 81 @Notre Dame L 58 - 78 4% -7  1 - 2 -10 -1 C+ F+ D -12 B F C
 Fri, Nov 14 26 @Kentucky L 53 - 99 1% -27  1 - 3 -27 -9 D- F B- -19 F F A-
 Tue, Nov 25 208 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 81 17% -16  1 - 4 -21 -6 D- D+ C -16 F F B
 Fri, Nov 28 9 @Purdue L 62 - 109 0% -25  1 - 5 -23 -4 B+ F F -18 F F B-
 Sat, Dec 6 241 Lindenwood L 74 - 82 41% +1  1 - 6 0 - 1 -16 -3 F B- A -13 D+ F D
 Wed, Dec 10 263 Eastern Kentucky L 59 - 68 46% -5  1 - 7 -18 -15 F D D- -4 C C- C-
 Sun, Dec 14 4 @Iowa St. L 53 - 78 0% -15  1 - 8 +0 -7 D- C- D +7 A A B-
 Thu, Dec 18 246 SIU Edwardsville W 76 - 72 OT 42% +0  2 - 8 1 - 1 -4 +2 B C F -6 F A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 1 233 @Southeast Missouri St. L 59 - 68 20% +2  2 - 9 1 - 2 -10 -13 F+ F B +3 B+ F D
 Sat, Jan 3 200 @Tennessee Martin L 61 - 65 16% +0  2 - 10 1 - 3 -3 -6 F+ F C +2 A+ F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 319 Tennessee Tech W 71 - 61 60% -2  3 - 10 2 - 3 -3 -0 D- C+ B -1 B- C- A-
 Sat, Jan 10 237 Tennessee St. W 74 - 70 40% +8  4 - 10 3 - 3 -3 -2 C- C B -2 C A C+
 Tue, Jan 13 362 Western Illinois W 57 - 55 82% +4  5 - 10 4 - 3 -18 -21 F F D +3 A D- B-
 Thu, Jan 15 293 @Arkansas Little Rock L 63 - 74 30% +4  5 - 11 4 - 4 -16 -6 F A- F -10 D F C-
 Thu, Jan 22 334 @Southern Indiana W 59 - 51 OT 43% -3  6 - 11 5 - 4 -0 -15 F F+ D+ +15 A+ F A
 Sat, Jan 24 302 @Morehead St. L 68 - 73 32% -0  6 - 12 5 - 5 -10 -1 F A D- -10 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 29 200 Tennessee Martin L 68 - 76 33% -7  6 - 13 5 - 6 -13 -2 F+ C A+ -12 F C- A+
 Sat, Jan 31 233 Southeast Missouri St. L 59 - 77 39% -12  6 - 14 5 - 7 -25 -11 F+ D- D- -15 F A+ D+
 Thu, Feb 5 237 @Tennessee St. L 68 - 77 21% -3  6 - 15 5 - 8 -10 -5 D+ B F -5 D+ A- F
 Sat, Feb 7 319 @Tennessee Tech L 68 - 71 39%
 Tue, Feb 10 362 @Western Illinois W 67 - 63 64%
 Sat, Feb 14 293 Arkansas Little Rock W 67 - 66 52%
 Thu, Feb 19 302 Morehead St. W 69 - 68 54%
 Sat, Feb 21 334 Southern Indiana W 67 - 63 65%
 Thu, Feb 26 241 @Lindenwood L 67 - 75 22%
 Sat, Feb 28 246 @SIU Edwardsville L 58 - 66 23%
Totals 9 - 19 8 - 12 -10 -9 F+ D+ D+ -1 C D- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.8 4th
5th 0.6 1.4 0.0 2.0 5th
6th 0.6 3.8 1.1 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.2 3.2 9.8 6.8 0.3 20.3 7th
8th 0.8 8.1 18.8 12.9 1.6 0.0 42.3 8th
9th 1.0 6.8 11.6 6.6 0.7 0.0 26.8 9th
10th 0.7 1.1 0.2 2.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 1.7 8.7 20.1 28.7 24.1 12.7 3.5 0.5 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.5% 0.5
11-9 3.5% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 3.4
10-10 12.7% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 12.5
9-11 24.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 23.8
8-12 28.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.2 28.5
7-13 20.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 20.1
6-14 8.7% 8.7
5-15 1.7% 1.7
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.7%