Eastern Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.8#325
Expected Predictive Rating-9.7#317
Pace66.1#277
Improvement-1.3#265

Offense
Total Offense-7.1#341
First Shot-5.4#331
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#281
Layup/Dunks-1.8#253
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.7#345
Freethrows+0.1#179
Improvement+0.8#116

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#268
First Shot-0.7#192
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#317
Layups/Dunks-2.2#258
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#99
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#147
Freethrows-0.6#224
Improvement-2.1#319
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 3.9% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 4.7% 11.8% 3.0%
.500 or above in Conference 31.1% 52.2% 26.1%
Conference Champion 1.9% 5.4% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.8% 4.8% 13.4%
First Four1.4% 2.5% 1.2%
First Round1.1% 2.7% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Away) - 19.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 00 - 4
Quad 31 - 41 - 8
Quad 49 - 1110 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 216 @Valparaiso L 63-66 19%     0 - 1 -3.7 -8.9 +5.3
  Fri, Nov 7 232 Nicholls St. W 65-57 41%     1 - 1 +0.6 -10.3 +11.0
  Tue, Nov 11 62 @Notre Dame L 58-78 3%     1 - 2 -8.5 -0.3 -11.2
  Fri, Nov 14 19 @Kentucky L 53-99 1%     1 - 3 -26.6 -7.9 -20.2
  Tue, Nov 25 283 @Central Arkansas L 60-81 27%     1 - 4 -24.5 -6.6 -20.0
  Fri, Nov 28 5 @Purdue L 62-109 0.5%    1 - 5 -22.3 -3.0 -18.0
  Sat, Dec 6 224 Lindenwood L 74-82 39%     1 - 6 0 - 1 -14.8 -2.7 -12.0
  Wed, Dec 10 260 Eastern Kentucky L 59-68 45%     1 - 7 -17.4 -12.4 -6.0
  Sun, Dec 14 3 @Iowa St. L 53-78 0.4%    1 - 8 +0.2 -7.0 +7.2
  Thu, Dec 18 248 SIU Edwardsville W 76-72 OT 43%     2 - 8 1 - 1 -4.0 +0.1 -4.1
  Thu, Jan 1 211 @Southeast Missouri St. L 68-77 19%    
  Sat, Jan 3 213 @Tennessee Martin L 63-72 19%    
  Thu, Jan 8 284 Tennessee Tech L 71-72 49%    
  Sat, Jan 10 238 Tennessee St. L 69-71 42%    
  Tue, Jan 13 355 Western Illinois W 70-63 74%    
  Thu, Jan 15 309 @Arkansas Little Rock L 66-70 35%    
  Thu, Jan 22 341 @Southern Indiana L 68-69 45%    
  Sat, Jan 24 307 @Morehead St. L 66-70 35%    
  Thu, Jan 29 213 Tennessee Martin L 66-69 38%    
  Sat, Jan 31 211 Southeast Missouri St. L 71-74 38%    
  Thu, Feb 5 238 @Tennessee St. L 66-74 23%    
  Sat, Feb 7 284 @Tennessee Tech L 68-74 28%    
  Tue, Feb 10 355 @Western Illinois W 67-66 54%    
  Sat, Feb 14 309 Arkansas Little Rock W 69-67 56%    
  Thu, Feb 19 307 Morehead St. W 69-67 56%    
  Sat, Feb 21 341 Southern Indiana W 71-66 66%    
  Thu, Feb 26 224 @Lindenwood L 68-77 21%    
  Sat, Feb 28 248 @SIU Edwardsville L 62-70 24%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 1.1 4.2 3.0 0.4 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.5 4.3 0.8 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 4.9 5.7 1.4 0.0 13.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.0 6.3 2.1 0.1 14.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.5 6.0 2.4 0.2 16.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.3 4.0 1.6 0.2 12.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 6.8 11th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.1 4.6 8.1 11.4 13.7 14.7 13.6 11.3 8.5 5.4 3.3 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 92.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 90.1% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-5 69.8% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
14-6 39.4% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 11.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.1% 20.0% 20.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.2% 23.9% 23.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.7% 25.5% 25.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5
14-6 1.6% 18.0% 18.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 1.3
13-7 3.3% 11.6% 11.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4 2.9
12-8 5.4% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.3 5.0
11-9 8.5% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.3 8.3
10-10 11.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 11.1
9-11 13.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 13.4
8-12 14.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 14.6
7-13 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.7
6-14 11.4% 11.4
5-15 8.1% 8.1
4-16 4.6% 4.6
3-17 2.1% 2.1
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.8 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%