Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.4#217
Expected Predictive Rating-5.0#243
Pace74.7#54
Improvement-0.9#251

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#243
First Shot-5.0#315
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#49
Layup/Dunks+1.3#133
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#59
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#333
Freethrows-2.8#322
Improvement-0.4#222

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#190
First Shot-1.1#212
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#159
Layups/Dunks+0.8#150
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#30
Freethrows-5.2#362
Improvement-0.5#227
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.8% 23.8% 14.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 64.6% 77.3% 53.4%
.500 or above in Conference 82.9% 91.2% 75.5%
Conference Champion 21.4% 30.5% 13.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.3% 1.7%
First Four4.3% 4.5% 4.2%
First Round16.8% 21.6% 12.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Away) - 47.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 413 - 715 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 41 @Saint Louis L 67-92 6%     0 - 1 -10.3 -4.5 -3.5
  Fri, Nov 7 50 @Missouri L 84-89 6%     0 - 2 +8.8 +7.0 +2.2
  Sat, Nov 15 152 St. Thomas L 72-84 48%     0 - 3 -14.8 -8.8 -5.0
  Tue, Nov 18 23 @Iowa L 70-99 3%     0 - 4 -10.8 +7.5 -19.0
  Tue, Nov 25 250 Cal Poly W 84-68 57%     1 - 4 +10.9 +3.0 +6.9
  Wed, Nov 26 258 @Northern Arizona L 72-79 46%     1 - 5 -9.4 -0.9 -8.6
  Sat, Nov 29 141 Lipscomb L 77-88 43%     1 - 6 -12.7 -5.6 -5.7
  Sat, Dec 6 228 @Chattanooga W 74-70 40%     2 - 6 +3.2 +3.3 +0.1
  Thu, Dec 18 267 @Tennessee Tech L 76-77 47%    
  Sat, Dec 20 247 @Tennessee St. L 76-77 45%    
  Thu, Jan 1 334 Eastern Illinois W 76-66 83%    
  Sat, Jan 3 359 Western Illinois W 79-65 90%    
  Thu, Jan 8 324 @Southern Indiana W 78-75 61%    
  Sat, Jan 10 328 @Morehead St. W 76-73 62%    
  Thu, Jan 15 235 Lindenwood W 80-76 64%    
  Sat, Jan 17 231 SIU Edwardsville W 73-69 63%    
  Tue, Jan 20 246 Tennessee Martin W 74-69 66%    
  Thu, Jan 22 321 Arkansas Little Rock W 77-68 79%    
  Thu, Jan 29 359 @Western Illinois W 76-68 77%    
  Sat, Jan 31 334 @Eastern Illinois W 73-69 65%    
  Thu, Feb 5 328 Morehead St. W 79-70 80%    
  Sat, Feb 7 324 Southern Indiana W 81-72 79%    
  Thu, Feb 12 231 @SIU Edwardsville L 70-72 41%    
  Sat, Feb 14 235 @Lindenwood L 77-79 42%    
  Tue, Feb 17 246 @Tennessee Martin L 71-72 44%    
  Sat, Feb 21 321 @Arkansas Little Rock W 74-71 60%    
  Sat, Feb 28 267 Tennessee Tech W 79-74 68%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 12 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 4.0 6.3 5.4 3.0 1.2 0.3 21.4 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 5.7 6.1 3.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 18.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 5.7 5.4 2.0 0.2 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 5.1 4.9 1.5 0.1 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.1 4.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.7 3.5 1.0 0.1 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.8 1.0 0.1 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.7 4.7 7.2 10.0 12.4 13.6 13.8 12.2 9.9 6.3 3.1 1.2 0.3 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 99.7% 1.2    1.1 0.0
17-3 96.9% 3.0    2.7 0.2 0.0
16-4 85.1% 5.4    4.3 1.0 0.0
15-5 63.5% 6.3    3.6 2.3 0.4 0.0
14-6 32.8% 4.0    1.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 8.6% 1.2    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.4% 21.4 13.8 5.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.3% 60.5% 60.5% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
18-2 1.2% 57.0% 57.0% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.5
17-3 3.1% 49.0% 49.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.6
16-4 6.3% 42.8% 42.8% 14.9 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.5 3.6
15-5 9.9% 35.8% 35.8% 15.3 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.5 6.4
14-6 12.2% 29.1% 29.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.2 8.7
13-7 13.8% 20.7% 20.7% 15.8 0.0 0.6 2.2 11.0
12-8 13.6% 13.6% 13.6% 15.9 0.2 1.6 11.8
11-9 12.4% 8.6% 8.6% 15.9 0.1 1.0 11.3
10-10 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 9.5
9-11 7.2% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.3 6.9
8-12 4.7% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 4.6
7-13 2.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.7
6-14 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4
5-15 0.7% 0.7
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 18.8% 18.8% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 6.3 10.0 81.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.4 8.2 44.9 46.9