Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -5.6 263
Expected Predictive Rating -1.9 203
Pace 74.9 37
Improvement +1.1 141

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #207 D+ C C+ D+ D
Defense D+ #297 D C- B- D- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 134 59% 143 +1.5 125
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 26 35% 263 +3.0 48
Three Pointers 29% 356 29% 332 -8.0 358
1st FG Attempt 0.95 287 -3.5 288
Second Chance 30.3% 192 0.99 221 0.30 201
Turnovers 16.1% 128
Freethrows 0.26 309 73% 154 0.19 285
Total Offense -1.4 207

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 26 60% 246 -4.8 333
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 351 46% 356 +1.4 78
Three Pointers 41% 175 36% 286 -1.6 259
1st FG Attempt 1.12 326 -5.0 326
Second Chance 31.3% 217 1.09 285 0.34 254
Turnovers 18.5% 86
Freethrows 0.36 327 76% 343 0.28 341
Total Defense -4.1 297

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.1 315 +1.3 357
Shot Type Accuracy -2.4 259 +3.5 309
Possession Length 16.6 99 16.5 54
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 102 0.24 345
Improvement +4.0 #22 -2.8 #315

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.9% 15.3% 9.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 98.5% 100.0% 96.6%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 11.7% 17.2% 4.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.0% 1.9% 2.0%
First Round11.9% 14.3% 8.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Indiana (Away) - 56.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 32 - 23 - 4
Quad 414 - 716 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 72 @Belmont L 79 - 87 7% -6  2% 0 - 1 +3 D+ -4 F+ C- B B+ +8 B- A+ B
 Sun, Nov 16 183 @Western Kentucky L 82 - 95 25% -9  0% 0 - 2 -12 C +2 B- F+ C F -12 F F+ D
 Thu, Nov 20 20 @Tennessee L 60 - 89 2% -22  0% 0 - 3 -9 F -12 D- D+ F B +7 B D B+
 Tue, Nov 25 213 @UNC Asheville W 75 - 73 30% -3  17% 1 - 3 +2 D+ -4 D- B+ F+ B +6 F B- A+
 Sun, Nov 30 279 @Chattanooga W 70 - 64 43% +8  99% 2 - 3 +2 C- -3 F C+ B- B +5 B+ D- F
 Wed, Dec 3 307 @Alabama A&M L 53 - 80 51% -9  0% 2 - 4 -33 F -19 F C+ F F -15 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 127 @UNLV W 63 - 60 17% -2  15% 3 - 4 +8 F -13 D- A- F A+ +20 A A- A+
 Thu, Dec 18 198 Tennessee Martin W 78 - 71 49% -1  28% 4 - 4 1 - 0 +2 C +2 B- C- A- C -0 B D+ C+
 Sat, Dec 20 247 Southeast Missouri St. L 82 - 91 59% -10  5% 4 - 5 1 - 1 -17 C- -2 D F+ A F -14 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 30 323 @Tennessee Tech W 88 - 76 55% +9  83% 5 - 5 2 - 1 +5 B +8 C- A+ C C- -2 F B B-
 Sat, Jan 3 292 @Arkansas Little Rock W 84 - 79 45% +3  88% 6 - 5 3 - 1 +1 C +1 F B+ A- C -1 C F C
 Thu, Jan 8 362 @Western Illinois W 90 - 68 76% +14  95% 7 - 5 4 - 1 +9 B +6 C A+ C- C+ +2 C+ D D+
 Sat, Jan 10 325 @Eastern Illinois L 70 - 74 55% -8  0% 7 - 6 4 - 2 -11 D+ -3 D+ F B- D -8 F D- D
 Thu, Jan 15 300 Morehead St. W 105 - 100 OT 71% +5  94% 8 - 6 5 - 2 -6 A- +11 A+ B C+ F -18 D- C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 330 Southern Indiana W 73 - 67 77% +4  78% 9 - 6 6 - 2 -7 C- -2 C- D- A+ D+ -6 F C B-
 Thu, Jan 22 255 @SIU Edwardsville L 66 - 74 37% -2  36% 9 - 7 6 - 3 -10 C +0 F+ B- A F+ -11 F C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 24 242 @Lindenwood W 96 - 86 35% +5  85% 10 - 7 7 - 3 +8 A- +12 A+ C D+ D+ -5 F+ B- C+
 Thu, Jan 29 292 Arkansas Little Rock W 70 - 63 68% -2  30% 11 - 7 8 - 3 -3 F+ -10 F+ C C- B+ +7 A+ F C
 Mon, Feb 2 323 Tennessee Tech L 85 - 90 75% -10  3% 11 - 8 8 - 4 -18 C+ +3 D+ B+ B- F -21 F C D
 Thu, Feb 5 325 Eastern Illinois W 77 - 68 76% +3  81% 12 - 8 9 - 4 -4 C +0 C F A+ C- -4 F F A
 Sat, Feb 7 362 Western Illinois W 83 - 56 89% +21  99% 13 - 8 10 - 4 +8 C +1 C+ F B B+ +8 C+ B+ B-
 Thu, Feb 12 330 @Southern Indiana W 75 - 73 56%
 Sat, Feb 14 300 @Morehead St. L 78 - 79 49%
 Thu, Feb 19 242 Lindenwood W 83 - 81 59%
 Sat, Feb 21 255 SIU Edwardsville W 73 - 70 61%
 Sat, Feb 28 198 @Tennessee Martin L 70 - 76 27%
Totals 16 - 10 13 - 6 -6 C- -1 D+ C C+ D+ -4 D C- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C C- D- C- 40% 30% 29% D D+ C C- C C+ D C+ D+ D+ C- F+ D+ D 45% 14% 41% D- D C D+ C- B- D D- D-
1.07 59% 35% 29% -2 -1 0.95 30% 1.0 .30 16% .26 73% .19 1.15 60% 46% 36% +3 +1 1.12 31% 1.1 .34 19% .36 76% .20
Nov
8		 Belmont D+ F+ F C F+ 32% 30% 38% D F+ B- D- C- B B- A+ B+ B+ F A+ A+ B+ 57% 6% 37% F B- B A+ A+ B F C F
0.97 45% 21% 33% -10 -2 0.79 36% 0.8 .30 16% .29 85% .25 1.07 76% 0% 26% +4 +3 1.16 24% 0.9 .21 21% .51 67% .34
Nov
16		 Western Kentucky C D- A A+ B 30% 28% 42% D+ B- C F F+ C A+ B A+ F F+ F A+ F+ 68% 8% 25% F F C F F+ D F C+ F
1.07 47% 50% 43% +6 -2 1.10 29% 0.4 .11 18% .54 74% .40 1.24 64% 75% 15% 0 +4 1.09 33% 1.3 .42 12% .47 72% .34
Nov
20		 Tennessee F A+ F F D 24% 29% 47% F+ D- B F D+ F A+ A+ A+ B C A+ C+ A- 46% 12% 42% D- B A+ F D B+ F F F
0.76 73% 23% 19% -11 -2 0.76 30% 0.6 .18 28% .44 76% .33 1.12 61% 17% 33% -2 +2 1.02 36% 1.5 .54 21% .56 89% .50
Nov
25		 UNC Asheville D+ D+ C+ F D- 49% 26% 25% D+ D- B+ B B+ F+ D+ A- C B C- F F F 35% 43% 22% C+ F C+ B+ B- A+ F B F
1.02 54% 43% 23% -5 0 0.92 38% 1.1 .41 20% .29 76% .22 0.99 62% 63% 63% +21 -3 1.38 28% 0.9 .24 31% .55 64% .36
Nov
30		 Chattanooga C- F+ D- D+ F 43% 26% 30% D+ F D A+ C+ B- F+ A+ C- B B+ A+ B+ A 35% 4% 62% F B+ B- F D- F B F C
1.07 48% 29% 31% -8 0 0.85 26% 1.6 .41 12% .26 93% .24 0.98 50% 0% 28% -10 +2 0.87 17% 1.7 .28 11% .24 86% .21
Dec
3		 Alabama A&M F F+ F F F 33% 33% 35% F F A+ F C+ F B F D+ F D F F F 42% 19% 40% F+ F F B- F A+ F C- F
0.81 50% 25% 18% -15 -2 0.67 47% 0.7 .34 21% .39 55% .22 1.23 61% 50% 47% +11 +1 1.26 41% 0.9 .38 23% .54 74% .40
Dec
13		 UNLV F C A+ F F+ 46% 28% 26% C- D- B B+ A- F F F F A+ C+ C A+ A+ 51% 12% 37% F+ A C A+ A- A+ F A+ F
0.88 57% 50% 8% -8 0 0.86 36% 1.2 .44 25% .24 38% .09 0.84 57% 40% 20% -8 +2 0.90 33% 0.5 .18 25% .60 59% .36
Dec
18		 Tennessee Martin C C+ B+ C B+ 41% 43% 17% F+ B- F+ A- C- A- D+ A C C B+ F A+ A- 43% 16% 41% D- B C- D+ D+ C+ F D- F
1.10 64% 43% 33% +4 -3 1.06 24% 1.1 .27 14% .30 78% .23 1.00 47% 57% 22% -9 +1 0.86 37% 1.0 .37 23% .53 72% .38
Dec
20		 Southeast Missouri St. C- B- F B D+ 40% 36% 25% F D D F F+ A A+ D+ A+ F D- F F F 44% 13% 42% D F D F F A+ F F F
1.07 62% 26% 38% -1 -2 0.96 23% 0.9 .21 13% .54 72% .39 1.19 65% 67% 42% +12 +1 1.29 32% 1.7 .54 25% .50 76% .38
Dec
30		 Tennessee Tech B B- F A+ C+ 25% 37% 39% F C- B+ A+ A+ C F A+ F C- F D+ D F 42% 20% 38% D F B- B B B- B B B+
1.25 64% 29% 45% +5 -3 1.05 39% 1.6 .64 16% .12 86% .10 1.08 76% 40% 37% +10 0 1.22 28% 0.9 .24 21% .24 69% .16
Jan
3		 Arkansas Little Rock C C+ F F F 49% 25% 26% D+ F C A+ B+ A- B A A- C C A C C+ 42% 27% 31% D- C D+ F F C F D- F
1.13 64% 14% 27% -6 0 0.91 35% 1.3 .45 15% .33 81% .27 1.06 60% 23% 33% -3 -1 0.94 33% 1.2 .41 19% .48 72% .35
Jan
8		 Western Illinois B B- D+ C+ C 57% 17% 26% B- C C- A+ A+ C- B+ F C+ C+ C+ A+ A+ A 71% 4% 25% F C+ D+ D D D+ F D- F
1.25 67% 33% 36% +5 +2 1.15 32% 1.7 .55 15% .38 65% .25 0.94 50% 0% 8% -17 +4 0.77 29% 1.0 .29 15% .56 74% .41
Jan
10		 Eastern Illinois D+ F+ A+ D- C- 34% 25% 42% D- D+ D- F F B- B+ D- B- D B B+ F F 47% 21% 32% F F D- D+ D- D A- F+ B+
1.02 50% 54% 27% -3 -1 0.94 29% 0.6 .18 18% .39 73% .28 1.08 48% 27% 53% +2 +1 1.08 31% 1.1 .34 16% .19 82% .16
Jan
15		 Morehead St. A- A- B+ A+ A+ 39% 34% 27% F A+ D A+ B C+ B+ C- B F B+ F F D- 40% 26% 33% C- D- C- C- C- F F F F
1.35 68% 47% 67% +20 -2 1.39 31% 1.3 .41 14% .39 69% .27 1.29 48% 53% 42% +4 -1 1.09 36% 0.9 .33 10% .49 85% .42
Jan
17		 Southern Indiana C- C+ F+ D+ C- 52% 20% 29% C+ C- F C+ D- A+ F C- F D+ B F+ D F 35% 17% 48% D+ F D- B C B- A+ C A
1.08 62% 27% 31% -1 +1 1.02 21% 1.0 .21 7% .22 71% .16 0.99 44% 44% 36% -2 0 0.98 33% 0.7 .23 19% .17 67% .11
Jan
22		 SIU Edwardsville C C F F F 43% 24% 33% C+ F+ A D- B- A B+ A- A F+ F A+ F F 41% 24% 34% F+ F F+ A+ C+ B- F C F
1.04 55% 25% 18% -13 0 0.76 46% 0.8 .37 11% .39 82% .32 1.17 76% 20% 50% +12 0 1.24 34% 0.7 .24 21% .50 68% .34
Jan
24		 Lindenwood A- B- A+ A+ A+ 56% 23% 21% C A+ C- C+ C D+ F C- F D+ C+ F F F 38% 28% 34% B+ F+ A- F+ B- C+ D+ F F
1.23 63% 64% 46% +13 +1 1.29 31% 1.1 .34 19% .16 70% .11 1.10 55% 47% 39% +4 -1 1.08 24% 1.3 .31 20% .35 91% .32
Jan
29		 Arkansas Little Rock F+ C D- D+ F+ 43% 23% 34% D+ F+ F+ A+ C C- A+ F B+ B+ B A+ A+ A+ 28% 30% 43% C A+ D+ F F C A- F C+
1.01 63% 30% 33% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.2 .33 20% .42 61% .25 0.91 53% 19% 22% -15 -2 0.69 33% 1.4 .44 19% .16 89% .14
Feb
2		 Tennessee Tech C+ C+ B F+ D+ 41% 29% 30% D+ D+ A+ D- B+ B- C- C+ C F A+ D F F 35% 15% 50% D F C+ C C D F C- F
1.23 61% 44% 29% +1 -1 1.02 48% 1.1 .50 13% .28 76% .22 1.30 38% 43% 65% +17 0 1.37 29% 1.0 .29 17% .44 76% .33
Feb
5		 Eastern Illinois C A+ F F C 43% 27% 29% D- C F D+ F A+ A+ C A C- C- D+ D- F 47% 18% 36% F F B- F F A C- A C+
1.12 77% 29% 20% 0 -1 1.00 21% 1.0 .21 10% .44 78% .34 0.99 57% 38% 38% +1 +1 1.07 23% 1.8 .42 25% .29 67% .19
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Western Illinois C A+ C- F B- 45% 29% 26% D- C+ C F F B F A+ D- B+ B- D A+ B- 35% 24% 41% D+ C+ C A+ B+ B- F D- F
1.22 85% 35% 27% +8 -1 1.17 33% 0.4 .12 12% .20 92% .18 0.82 47% 42% 20% -11 -1 0.78 26% 0.6 .16 19% .40 73% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1.0 7.0 3.7 11.7 1st
2nd 0.8 13.5 9.0 0.2 23.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 5.8 13.3 0.2 19.4 3rd
4th 1.4 13.2 3.1 17.7 4th
5th 0.1 5.5 8.5 0.1 14.2 5th
6th 2.6 8.3 1.6 12.4 6th
7th 0.8 0.3 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 3.5 15.6 29.9 30.9 16.2 3.9 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 94.8% 3.7    2.5 1.2
14-6 43.4% 7.0    1.0 3.6 2.0 0.4 0.0
13-7 3.1% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.7% 11.7 3.5 4.8 2.3 0.7 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 3.9% 29.3% 29.3% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.1 2.7
14-6 16.2% 23.1% 23.1% 15.4 0.1 2.0 1.6 12.5
13-7 30.9% 15.5% 15.5% 15.6 0.0 1.6 3.1 26.2
12-8 29.9% 8.7% 8.7% 15.8 0.0 0.5 2.1 27.3
11-9 15.6% 3.7% 3.7% 15.9 0.1 0.5 15.0
10-10 3.5% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.4
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 12.9% 12.9% 0.0% 15.5 87.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 14.8 0.9 26.5 67.3 5.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7%
Lose Out 1.5%