Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.1#321
Expected Predictive Rating-10.1#328
Pace72.4#75
Improvement-0.9#290

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#272
First Shot-3.0#279
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#188
Layup/Dunks-1.1#226
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#288
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#174
Freethrows-0.3#191
Improvement-0.3#243

Defense
Total Defense-6.0#334
First Shot-6.2#349
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#163
Layups/Dunks-2.9#291
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#152
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#205
Freethrows-3.2#352
Improvement-0.6#280
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 3.2% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 6.8% 17.1% 3.1%
.500 or above in Conference 20.5% 40.7% 13.2%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.7% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.6% 1.5% 8.5%
First Four2.3% 3.0% 2.1%
First Round0.9% 1.4% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Indiana (Away) - 26.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 30 - 30 - 5
Quad 411 - 1111 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2022 355   South Carolina St. W 80-61 78%     1 - 0 +1.9 -6.7 +7.8
  Nov 14, 2022 347   Alabama A&M W 87-76 71%     2 - 0 -3.8 -1.2 -3.9
  Nov 17, 2022 130   @ Southern Illinois L 44-57 10%     2 - 1 -8.0 -23.3 +15.3
  Nov 21, 2022 328   Cal St. Northridge W 74-73 51%     3 - 1 -8.5 +2.8 -11.2
  Nov 23, 2022 304   High Point L 72-77 45%     3 - 2 -12.8 -7.5 -5.1
  Nov 30, 2022 79   @ Saint Louis L 63-80 5%     3 - 3 -7.7 -3.6 -4.9
  Dec 03, 2022 315   @ Austin Peay L 61-77 36%     3 - 4 -21.5 -7.0 -16.2
  Dec 11, 2022 194   Lipscomb W 90-85 31%     4 - 4 +1.0 +5.4 -4.9
  Dec 14, 2022 280   Charleston Southern L 87-91 50%     4 - 5 -13.0 +0.0 -12.8
  Dec 29, 2022 278   Morehead St. L 75-83 49%     4 - 6 0 - 1 -16.9 -1.8 -15.1
  Dec 31, 2022 332   Arkansas Little Rock W 94-69 64%     5 - 6 1 - 1 +12.1 +3.1 +6.4
  Jan 05, 2023 238   @ SIU Edwardsville L 72-81 22%     5 - 7 1 - 2 -10.2 -5.8 -3.5
  Jan 07, 2023 352   @ Lindenwood W 60-57 55%     6 - 7 2 - 2 -7.5 -14.3 +6.9
  Jan 12, 2023 296   Tennessee Martin L 66-77 53%     6 - 8 2 - 3 -20.9 -11.7 -9.3
  Jan 14, 2023 303   @ Tennessee Tech L 63-71 35%     6 - 9 2 - 4 -13.0 -14.5 +1.5
  Jan 19, 2023 343   Eastern Illinois W 78-74 70%     7 - 9 3 - 4 -10.5 +1.7 -12.1
  Jan 21, 2023 332   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 77-89 43%     7 - 10 3 - 5 -19.4 -6.4 -12.2
  Jan 26, 2023 251   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 75-92 25%     7 - 11 3 - 6 -19.0 -4.4 -13.3
  Jan 28, 2023 352   Lindenwood W 83-66 74%     8 - 11 4 - 6 +1.0 +9.6 -7.5
  Feb 02, 2023 270   @ Southern Indiana L 75-81 27%    
  Feb 04, 2023 343   @ Eastern Illinois L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 09, 2023 251   Southeast Missouri St. L 77-79 44%    
  Feb 11, 2023 303   Tennessee Tech W 74-73 56%    
  Feb 16, 2023 278   @ Morehead St. L 68-74 29%    
  Feb 18, 2023 238   SIU Edwardsville L 72-74 42%    
  Feb 23, 2023 296   @ Tennessee Martin L 75-80 32%    
  Feb 25, 2023 270   Southern Indiana L 77-78 48%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 2.3 0.1 0.0 3.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.5 1.6 0.0 6.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 6.6 6.3 0.3 14.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 6.5 17.1 14.3 2.0 0.0 40.3 7th
8th 0.2 3.8 10.3 6.7 0.9 0.0 21.9 8th
9th 1.2 4.6 3.0 0.4 0.0 9.3 9th
10th 0.8 0.8 0.1 1.7 10th
Total 2.2 9.7 19.8 25.3 22.5 13.7 5.4 1.3 0.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 57.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 9.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.2% 19.3% 19.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 1.3% 9.4% 9.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.1
10-8 5.4% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3 5.1
9-9 13.7% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.6 13.1
8-10 22.5% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.6 21.9
7-11 25.3% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.5 24.8
6-12 19.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 19.6
5-13 9.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.6
4-14 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.2
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.4 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 19.3% 15.8 3.6 15.7
Lose Out 2.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.2