Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.0#247
Expected Predictive Rating-0.8#183
Pace75.2#46
Improvement-3.1#344

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#287
First Shot-4.5#301
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#162
Layup/Dunks-2.7#273
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#97
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#309
Freethrows+0.8#127
Improvement-2.2#338

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#186
First Shot-1.4#222
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#136
Layups/Dunks-4.3#317
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#11
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#46
Freethrows-3.8#347
Improvement-0.9#260
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.6% 18.3% 11.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 14.9 15.4
.500 or above 62.3% 81.8% 58.6%
.500 or above in Conference 69.8% 79.9% 67.9%
Conference Champion 11.6% 18.1% 10.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 1.4% 2.9%
First Four2.3% 1.9% 2.4%
First Round11.4% 17.5% 10.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Away) - 15.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 6
Quad 412 - 714 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 79 @Belmont L 79-87 8%     0 - 1 +2.3 +1.2 +2.2
  Sun, Nov 16 145 @Western Kentucky L 82-95 20%     0 - 2 -9.1 +4.4 -12.4
  Thu, Nov 20 18 @Tennessee L 60-89 2%     0 - 3 -9.7 -10.0 +3.7
  Tue, Nov 25 194 @UNC Asheville W 75-73 29%     1 - 3 +2.7 -2.3 +4.9
  Sun, Nov 30 228 @Chattanooga W 70-64 34%     2 - 3 +5.2 +0.0 +5.6
  Wed, Dec 3 292 @Alabama A&M L 53-80 47%     2 - 4 -31.2 -16.2 -17.0
  Sat, Dec 13 124 @UNLV L 75-86 16%    
  Thu, Dec 18 246 Tennessee Martin W 73-70 61%    
  Sat, Dec 20 217 Southeast Missouri St. W 77-76 55%    
  Sat, Jan 3 321 @Arkansas Little Rock W 73-72 54%    
  Thu, Jan 8 359 @Western Illinois W 74-68 73%    
  Sat, Jan 10 334 @Eastern Illinois W 72-69 60%    
  Thu, Jan 15 328 Morehead St. W 78-70 76%    
  Sat, Jan 17 324 Southern Indiana W 79-72 74%    
  Thu, Jan 22 231 @SIU Edwardsville L 68-72 36%    
  Sat, Jan 24 235 @Lindenwood L 75-79 36%    
  Tue, Jan 27 267 Tennessee Tech W 78-74 63%    
  Thu, Jan 29 321 Arkansas Little Rock W 76-69 74%    
  Thu, Feb 5 334 Eastern Illinois W 75-66 78%    
  Sat, Feb 7 359 Western Illinois W 77-65 86%    
  Thu, Feb 12 324 @Southern Indiana W 76-75 54%    
  Sat, Feb 14 328 @Morehead St. W 75-73 56%    
  Thu, Feb 19 235 Lindenwood W 78-76 58%    
  Sat, Feb 21 231 SIU Edwardsville W 71-69 57%    
  Sat, Feb 28 246 @Tennessee Martin L 70-73 40%    
Projected Record 13 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.8 3.7 2.5 1.1 0.2 11.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.5 4.4 1.9 0.4 0.0 13.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.9 5.3 4.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.2 4.6 1.3 0.1 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 5.0 5.0 1.3 0.1 12.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.0 4.8 1.1 0.1 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.8 1.2 0.1 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.9 1.1 0.1 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.2 0.8 0.1 5.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.4 5.5 7.8 10.3 12.7 13.5 13.1 11.7 8.7 5.8 2.9 1.2 0.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-3 98.6% 1.1    1.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 86.4% 2.5    1.9 0.6 0.0
15-5 64.4% 3.7    2.1 1.3 0.3 0.0
14-6 31.5% 2.8    0.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 9.0% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.6% 11.6 6.4 3.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.2% 58.8% 58.8% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 1.2% 47.1% 47.1% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6
16-4 2.9% 41.6% 41.6% 14.5 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.7
15-5 5.8% 37.5% 37.5% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.5 3.6
14-6 8.7% 29.0% 29.0% 15.3 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.0 6.2
13-7 11.7% 20.3% 20.3% 15.6 0.1 0.8 1.5 9.3
12-8 13.1% 12.7% 12.7% 15.8 0.0 0.4 1.3 11.4
11-9 13.5% 7.1% 7.1% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 12.5
10-10 12.7% 4.5% 4.5% 15.9 0.0 0.5 12.2
9-11 10.3% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 10.0
8-12 7.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 7.7
7-13 5.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.4
6-14 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.4
5-15 1.8% 1.8
4-16 0.9% 0.9
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 4.6 6.1 87.4 0.0%