Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.6#290
Expected Predictive Rating-5.2#260
Pace70.0#140
Improvement-1.8#271

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#293
First Shot-2.5#253
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#305
Layup/Dunks+1.5#112
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#285
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#268
Freethrows+0.4#151
Improvement-2.2#301

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#233
First Shot+1.0#143
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#352
Layups/Dunks+1.0#140
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#30
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#117
Freethrows-4.0#353
Improvement+0.4#162
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 4.3% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 47.0% 100.0% 26.4%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.9% 1.7% 2.0%
First Round2.1% 3.3% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Away) - 28.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 413 - 714 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2023 301   @ Portland W 75-65 43%     1 - 0 +5.1 -2.5 +7.5
  Nov 17, 2023 53   @ Oregon L 67-92 5%     1 - 1 -12.7 -1.3 -11.2
  Nov 24, 2023 228   Mercer L 59-60 38%     1 - 2 -4.4 -11.2 +6.8
  Nov 25, 2023 292   SE Louisiana W 91-77 51%     2 - 2 +7.2 +16.1 -8.8
  Nov 29, 2023 337   @ Alabama A&M L 83-85 OT 60%     2 - 3 -11.1 -2.1 -8.8
  Dec 02, 2023 217   Austin Peay W 69-65 47%     3 - 3 -1.8 -7.0 +5.3
  Dec 10, 2023 166   @ Lipscomb L 71-78 20%     3 - 4 -4.6 -7.2 +2.8
  Dec 13, 2023 121   @ Liberty L 52-74 12%     3 - 5 -16.1 -13.5 -4.7
  Dec 19, 2023 55   @ Indiana St. L 69-90 5%     3 - 6 -8.8 -2.6 -5.2
  Dec 28, 2023 220   Tennessee Martin L 75-91 47%     3 - 7 0 - 1 -21.9 -7.5 -13.1
  Dec 30, 2023 229   Arkansas Little Rock W 90-82 48%     4 - 7 1 - 1 +1.9 +7.7 -6.3
  Jan 04, 2024 326   @ Southern Indiana L 67-69 53%     4 - 8 1 - 2 -9.4 -9.6 +0.2
  Jan 06, 2024 144   @ Morehead St. L 68-78 15%     4 - 9 1 - 3 -5.6 -0.4 -5.6
  Jan 13, 2024 359   Lindenwood W 75-60 87%     5 - 9 2 - 3 -3.8 -8.5 +4.1
  Jan 18, 2024 330   Tennessee Tech W 85-53 74%     6 - 9 3 - 3 +18.8 +17.2 +5.6
  Jan 20, 2024 272   @ Western Illinois W 58-57 35%     7 - 9 4 - 3 -1.7 -5.4 +3.9
  Jan 27, 2024 316   @ Eastern Illinois W 64-60 50%     8 - 9 5 - 3 -2.5 -6.4 +4.1
  Feb 01, 2024 144   Morehead St. L 49-68 29%     8 - 10 5 - 4 -20.0 -19.2 -3.2
  Feb 03, 2024 326   Southern Indiana W 79-74 73%     9 - 10 6 - 4 -7.9 +0.1 -8.0
  Feb 08, 2024 359   @ Lindenwood W 65-55 74%     10 - 10 7 - 4 -3.4 -8.0 +5.4
  Feb 10, 2024 352   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 77-74 69%     11 - 10 8 - 4 -8.8 +6.5 -15.0
  Feb 13, 2024 330   @ Tennessee Tech L 50-70 54%     11 - 11 8 - 5 -27.7 -23.2 -5.6
  Feb 17, 2024 272   Western Illinois L 61-68 56%     11 - 12 8 - 6 -15.1 -8.7 -7.0
  Feb 22, 2024 316   Eastern Illinois W 78-73 70%     12 - 12 9 - 6 -7.0 +3.4 -10.3
  Feb 24, 2024 291   SIU Edwardsville W 76-71 61%     13 - 12 10 - 6 -4.5 -8.0 +3.1
  Feb 29, 2024 229   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 72-78 28%    
  Mar 02, 2024 220   @ Tennessee Martin L 74-80 27%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 1.3 1.3 3rd
4th 3.6 3.8 7.4 4th
5th 43.8 35.4 2.7 81.9 5th
6th 9.3 9.3 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 53.1 39.0 8.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 8.0% 5.4% 5.4% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 7.5
11-7 39.0% 3.8% 3.8% 15.9 0.2 1.3 37.5
10-8 53.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 1.4 51.6
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.4 2.9 96.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.0% 5.4% 15.6 0.1 1.9 3.4
Lose Out 53.1% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 2.6