Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.0#321
Expected Predictive Rating-20.2#355
Pace74.9#56
Improvement+2.0#39

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#277
First Shot-7.1#336
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#22
Layup/Dunks-4.5#320
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#90
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#254
Freethrows-1.4#275
Improvement+2.5#16

Defense
Total Defense-5.3#322
First Shot-5.8#333
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#139
Layups/Dunks+0.3#182
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#137
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#195
Freethrows-6.6#355
Improvement-0.5#233
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 9.1% 11.8% 2.7%
.500 or above in Conference 25.2% 27.9% 18.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 11.6% 10.1% 15.3%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Away) - 71.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 51 - 8
Quad 49 - 1110 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 342   @ Alabama A&M L 73-82 54%     0 - 1 -19.0 -4.2 -14.6
  Nov 13, 2021 250   Norfolk St. L 59-66 34%     0 - 2 -11.8 -21.8 +10.8
  Nov 21, 2021 243   @ South Dakota L 66-83 23%     0 - 3 -18.3 -9.4 -8.4
  Nov 23, 2021 107   @ Nebraska L 73-79 7%     0 - 4 +1.2 +3.1 -1.8
  Nov 28, 2021 292   Southern L 80-82 54%     0 - 5 -12.1 -1.0 -10.9
  Dec 04, 2021 355   @ Chicago St. W 78-72 71%    
  Dec 10, 2021 336   IUPUI W 70-64 72%    
  Dec 12, 2021 222   @ Lipscomb L 72-81 20%    
  Dec 16, 2021 349   @ Charleston Southern W 82-79 60%    
  Dec 18, 2021 354   @ South Carolina St. W 81-75 70%    
  Dec 30, 2021 277   Tennessee Tech W 77-76 50%    
  Jan 01, 2022 134   @ Morehead St. L 64-78 10%    
  Jan 06, 2022 346   Tennessee Martin W 80-72 75%    
  Jan 08, 2022 303   Southeast Missouri St. W 79-77 56%    
  Jan 13, 2022 89   @ Murray St. L 62-80 5%    
  Jan 15, 2022 134   Morehead St. L 67-75 23%    
  Jan 20, 2022 303   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 76-80 37%    
  Jan 22, 2022 259   Austin Peay L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 27, 2022 322   @ SIU Edwardsville L 72-75 42%    
  Jan 29, 2022 347   @ Eastern Illinois W 74-72 56%    
  Feb 03, 2022 68   Belmont L 72-85 12%    
  Feb 05, 2022 346   @ Tennessee Martin W 77-75 56%    
  Feb 10, 2022 89   Murray St. L 65-77 14%    
  Feb 12, 2022 259   @ Austin Peay L 69-76 29%    
  Feb 17, 2022 322   SIU Edwardsville W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 19, 2022 347   Eastern Illinois W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 24, 2022 277   @ Tennessee Tech L 73-79 30%    
  Feb 26, 2022 68   @ Belmont L 69-88 4%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.1 3.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.1 4.0 2.5 0.8 0.1 11.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 5.6 5.1 2.5 0.3 0.1 15.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 7.0 6.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 17.7 6th
7th 0.1 3.0 7.8 4.7 1.0 0.1 16.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 3.8 6.8 4.4 0.7 0.0 16.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.8 5.1 2.5 0.5 0.0 11.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 1.9 2.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 6.5 10th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.7 5.4 10.2 12.5 15.5 13.9 13.6 9.8 7.4 4.2 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 51.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 14.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 0.1
14-4 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.1% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 1.1
12-6 2.2% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.1 2.1
11-7 4.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.2
10-8 7.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 7.3
9-9 9.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.7
8-10 13.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.6
7-11 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.9
6-12 15.5% 15.5
5-13 12.5% 12.5
4-14 10.2% 10.2
3-15 5.4% 5.4
2-16 2.7% 2.7
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%