Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.9#318
Expected Predictive Rating-15.4#352
Pace76.3#30
Improvement-1.8#291

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#288
First Shot-6.2#332
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#79
Layup/Dunks+4.9#42
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#112
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.8#354
Freethrows-3.4#339
Improvement-0.3#208

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#318
First Shot-4.1#310
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#219
Layups/Dunks-2.5#264
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#194
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#174
Freethrows-1.9#292
Improvement-1.5#300
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 8.8% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 15.7% 34.6% 14.1%
.500 or above in Conference 48.5% 63.7% 47.2%
Conference Champion 6.1% 11.6% 5.6%
Last Place in Conference 11.0% 5.4% 11.4%
First Four4.7% 6.7% 4.5%
First Round3.1% 5.4% 2.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Away) - 7.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 30 - 40 - 6
Quad 411 - 1211 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 99   @ Colorado St. L 79-87 OT 6%     0 - 1 +0.4 +0.7 +0.9
  Nov 10, 2024 177   @ Wyoming L 66-81 15%     0 - 2 -12.9 -6.2 -6.6
  Nov 13, 2024 284   Howard L 84-88 OT 41%     0 - 3 -10.5 +1.9 -12.1
  Nov 16, 2024 360   Alabama A&M W 81-71 80%     1 - 3 -7.7 -10.9 +1.8
  Nov 25, 2024 200   @ Chattanooga L 78-85 17%     1 - 4 -5.8 -2.4 -2.9
  Nov 26, 2024 176   Bryant L 85-97 22%     1 - 5 -12.8 -0.9 -10.2
  Dec 01, 2024 193   UNC Asheville L 74-92 33%     1 - 6 -22.4 -5.1 -16.7
  Dec 10, 2024 115   @ Western Kentucky L 74-89 8%    
  Dec 19, 2024 293   @ Southern Indiana L 74-79 32%    
  Dec 21, 2024 266   @ Morehead St. L 70-76 29%    
  Jan 02, 2025 295   Southeast Missouri St. W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 04, 2025 233   Arkansas Little Rock L 74-76 43%    
  Jan 09, 2025 354   @ Lindenwood W 75-74 55%    
  Jan 11, 2025 324   @ Western Illinois L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 16, 2025 273   SIU Edwardsville W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 18, 2025 316   Eastern Illinois W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 21, 2025 328   Tennessee Martin W 78-74 62%    
  Jan 23, 2025 330   Tennessee Tech W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 30, 2025 233   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 71-79 24%    
  Feb 01, 2025 295   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 74-79 33%    
  Feb 06, 2025 324   Western Illinois W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 354   Lindenwood W 78-71 75%    
  Feb 13, 2025 316   @ Eastern Illinois L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 15, 2025 273   @ SIU Edwardsville L 70-76 31%    
  Feb 18, 2025 328   @ Tennessee Martin L 75-77 41%    
  Feb 22, 2025 330   @ Tennessee Tech L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 27, 2025 266   Morehead St. W 74-73 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 293   Southern Indiana W 77-76 53%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 2.7 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 7.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 3.5 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.4 2.9 0.8 0.1 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.5 3.9 0.8 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.0 4.3 1.1 0.0 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.6 4.7 1.5 0.1 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.9 2.0 0.1 10.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.3 2.0 0.2 10.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 1.2 2.7 3.2 1.5 0.2 9.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.9 1.6 0.8 0.1 6.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 3.2 5.2 7.7 9.7 11.3 11.9 11.9 11.0 8.6 6.8 4.6 2.8 1.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 99.3% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 95.4% 0.5    0.5 0.1
16-4 79.5% 1.3    1.0 0.3 0.0
15-5 63.3% 1.8    1.0 0.6 0.1
14-6 30.1% 1.4    0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0
13-7 8.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 3.4 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 54.8% 54.8% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.3% 37.9% 37.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2
17-3 0.6% 38.0% 38.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4
16-4 1.7% 31.8% 31.8% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.2
15-5 2.8% 28.9% 28.9% 16.0 0.0 0.8 2.0
14-6 4.6% 22.0% 22.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0 3.6
13-7 6.8% 12.4% 12.4% 16.0 0.8 6.0
12-8 8.6% 9.3% 9.3% 16.0 0.8 7.8
11-9 11.0% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.5 10.5
10-10 11.9% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.3 11.6
9-11 11.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 11.8
8-12 11.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.3
7-13 9.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.7
6-14 7.7% 7.7
5-15 5.2% 5.2
4-16 3.2% 3.2
3-17 1.6% 1.6
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 5.3 94.5 0.0%