Tennessee Tech
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.8#303
Expected Predictive Rating-8.7#310
Pace65.9#251
Improvement+1.0#60

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#250
First Shot+0.2#175
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#342
Layup/Dunks-3.8#323
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#154
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#23
Freethrows-1.3#279
Improvement+0.3#129

Defense
Total Defense-5.3#320
First Shot-5.0#324
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#214
Layups/Dunks-2.9#294
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#161
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#321
Freethrows+1.4#79
Improvement+0.7#70
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.4% 7.4% 4.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 4.6% 11.0% 1.5%
.500 or above in Conference 84.8% 95.3% 79.6%
Conference Champion 9.2% 19.8% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four5.2% 6.7% 4.4%
First Round2.3% 3.5% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Away) - 33.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 51 - 9
Quad 410 - 811 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 3   @ Tennessee L 43-75 1%     0 - 1 -10.6 -13.4 +1.2
  Nov 14, 2022 78   @ Marshall L 65-91 6%     0 - 2 -16.6 -6.9 -8.6
  Nov 17, 2022 345   Coppin St. L 85-90 OT 75%     0 - 3 -19.7 -9.7 -9.3
  Nov 20, 2022 223   East Tennessee St. W 69-62 42%     1 - 3 +1.3 -4.3 +5.7
  Nov 27, 2022 210   @ Northern Kentucky L 77-85 2OT 21%     1 - 4 -7.3 +0.7 -7.4
  Nov 30, 2022 164   Chattanooga L 74-81 31%     1 - 5 -9.5 -2.3 -7.3
  Dec 03, 2022 86   @ Butler L 66-80 7%     1 - 6 -5.5 +8.4 -15.9
  Dec 10, 2022 149   @ Troy L 64-87 14%     1 - 7 -19.3 -6.5 -12.5
  Dec 14, 2022 194   @ Lipscomb L 63-64 19%     1 - 8 +0.5 -5.4 +5.8
  Dec 17, 2022 260   Western Carolina L 65-75 51%     1 - 9 -18.1 -8.4 -10.4
  Dec 29, 2022 238   @ SIU Edwardsville L 51-64 26%     1 - 10 0 - 1 -14.2 -12.6 -3.4
  Dec 31, 2022 352   @ Lindenwood L 64-82 61%     1 - 11 0 - 2 -28.5 -12.8 -15.5
  Jan 05, 2023 343   Eastern Illinois W 70-49 74%     2 - 11 1 - 2 +6.5 -1.9 +10.4
  Jan 07, 2023 296   @ Tennessee Martin W 84-80 OT 37%     3 - 11 2 - 2 -0.5 +1.1 -1.9
  Jan 12, 2023 278   Morehead St. W 79-62 54%     4 - 11 3 - 2 +8.1 +9.6 +0.3
  Jan 14, 2023 321   Tennessee St. W 71-63 65%     5 - 11 4 - 2 -3.9 -10.0 +6.0
  Jan 19, 2023 332   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 77-75 49%     6 - 11 5 - 2 -5.4 +5.6 -10.8
  Jan 21, 2023 251   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 77-84 2OT 29%     6 - 12 5 - 3 -9.0 -9.3 +1.5
  Jan 26, 2023 238   SIU Edwardsville W 80-68 46%     7 - 12 6 - 3 +5.3 +4.6 +0.5
  Jan 28, 2023 332   Arkansas Little Rock L 89-91 69%     7 - 13 6 - 4 -14.9 +0.1 -14.8
  Feb 02, 2023 278   @ Morehead St. L 66-70 33%    
  Feb 04, 2023 251   Southeast Missouri St. L 74-75 50%    
  Feb 09, 2023 270   Southern Indiana W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 11, 2023 321   @ Tennessee St. L 73-74 44%    
  Feb 16, 2023 352   Lindenwood W 72-64 79%    
  Feb 18, 2023 296   Tennessee Martin W 74-72 59%    
  Feb 23, 2023 270   @ Southern Indiana L 71-76 31%    
  Feb 25, 2023 343   @ Eastern Illinois W 70-69 54%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.4 3.5 0.6 9.2 1st
2nd 0.3 5.2 5.6 0.6 11.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.2 9.4 1.5 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 9.9 5.2 0.1 16.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 8.2 10.0 0.8 19.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 7.5 11.2 2.6 0.0 22.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.5 3.5 11.2 21.4 26.0 21.3 11.6 4.0 0.6 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.1
13-5 85.7% 3.5    1.9 1.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 38.5% 4.4    0.6 1.7 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 3.4% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 3.1 3.2 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.6% 19.3% 19.3% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.5
13-5 4.0% 14.3% 14.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6 3.5
12-6 11.6% 10.7% 10.7% 16.0 1.2 10.3
11-7 21.3% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 1.4 19.9
10-8 26.0% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 1.2 24.8
9-9 21.4% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.7 20.7
8-10 11.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 11.0
7-11 3.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.5
6-12 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 5.4 94.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 19.3% 15.6 7.7 11.7
Lose Out 0.5% 0.4% 16.0 0.4