Tennessee Tech
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.0 321
Expected Predictive Rating -11.0 332
Pace 69.0 173
Improvement -2.4 282

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #286 D+ C- D- C- C-
Defense D #326 D D- D+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 217 54% 269 -2.1 258
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 115 36% 235 +0.7 136
Three Pointers 39% 219 32% 252 -1.9 250
1st FG Attempt 0.95 280 -3.3 278
Second Chance 30.0% 201 0.99 229 0.30 209
Turnovers 19.8% 332
Freethrows 0.28 258 74% 123 0.21 225
Total Offense -4.4 286

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 192 60% 249 -0.8 200
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 205 40% 256 +0.0 194
Three Pointers 42% 139 38% 335 -3.1 314
1st FG Attempt 1.10 302 -4.0 303
Second Chance 32.3% 251 1.22 357 0.40 343
Turnovers 15.1% 293
Freethrows 0.30 167 75% 318 0.22 197
Total Defense -5.6 326

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.4 251 +0.1 185
Shot Type Accuracy -2.8 279 +3.8 316
Possession Length 17.3 180 17.1 159
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 191 0.21 314
Improvement +1.6 #101 -4.1 #346

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.9% 5.7% 0.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Away) - 29.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 31 - 61 - 8
Quad 48 - 129 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 158 @Western Kentucky L 70 - 82 12% -9  3% 0 - 1 D -9 D- -8 C- B+ F C -1 A- F C
 Fri, Nov 7 163 @Charlotte L 65 - 70 13% -10  0% 0 - 2 C- -3 D- -7 D+ A+ F B +4 D+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 17 320 West Georgia L 59 - 61 61% -6  13% 0 - 3 F+ -15 F -20 F C- F B +5 B+ A B
 Wed, Nov 19 298 @South Carolina Upstate W 88 - 84 31% +3  73% 1 - 3 C -1 B- +4 B- A- F D+ -5 F+ B F
 Wed, Nov 26 25 @Kentucky L 54 - 104 1% -18  15% 1 - 4 F -31 F -14 F C- B F -14 F F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 31 @Georgia L 81 - 123 1% -23  0% 1 - 5 F -24 D+ -3 C- D+ A- F -13 F B- D
 Wed, Dec 3 193 @Lipscomb L 80 - 83 16% -1  41% 1 - 6 C- -2 C +0 B- C- B- C- -2 C- C D+
 Sat, Dec 6 320 @West Georgia W 87 - 59 38% +10  86% 2 - 6 A +21 B+ +8 A+ F C- A+ +13 A+ F+ B+
 Thu, Dec 18 229 Southeast Missouri St. W 85 - 74 37% +2  49% 3 - 6 1 - 0 C+ +4 B- +5 D- B- B+ C -1 A+ F B
 Sat, Dec 20 218 Tennessee Martin L 62 - 86 35% -7  8% 3 - 7 1 - 1 F -30 D- -7 B+ D- F F -26 F B+ F
 Tue, Dec 30 234 Tennessee St. L 76 - 88 39% -9  15% 3 - 8 1 - 2 F -19 D -4 B D- D- F -15 D- F C-
 Thu, Jan 1 301 @Arkansas Little Rock L 58 - 77 32% -5  18% 3 - 9 1 - 3 F -24 F -18 F C F D -7 F C D
 Thu, Jan 8 317 @Eastern Illinois L 61 - 71 37% +2  72% 3 - 10 1 - 4 F+ -17 D -5 D- D F F -12 D- F F
 Sat, Jan 10 362 @Western Illinois W 59 - 54 67% -2  28% 4 - 10 2 - 4 D -9 F -15 F F D- B+ +6 D C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 343 Southern Indiana L 54 - 71 68% +0  58% 4 - 11 2 - 5 F -32 F -23 F F F+ D- -9 C- D F
 Sat, Jan 17 292 Morehead St. L 70 - 76 52% -7  8% 4 - 12 2 - 6 F+ -17 D -5 F A- B F -12 C+ F F
 Thu, Jan 22 243 @Lindenwood L 68 - 89 21% -19  0% 4 - 13 2 - 7 F -23 F -12 F F+ F+ D- -9 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 24 241 @SIU Edwardsville L 58 - 62 21% -9  0% 4 - 14 2 - 8 D+ -6 D+ -2 D- C- A+ D+ -4 B- F F
 Sat, Jan 31 301 Arkansas Little Rock W 87 - 77 54% +8  88% 5 - 14 3 - 8 C -1 B+ +9 B+ B+ F F+ -10 F A+ F
 Mon, Feb 2 234 @Tennessee St. W 90 - 85 20% +10  92% 6 - 14 4 - 8 C+ +4 A+ +14 A+ D+ C+ F+ -10 D F D-
 Thu, Feb 5 362 Western Illinois W 97 - 72 84% +18  94% 7 - 14 5 - 8 C+ +5 A+ +26 A+ A+ B- F -18 F F C-
 Sat, Feb 7 317 Eastern Illinois L 54 - 60 60% -7  1% 7 - 15 5 - 9 F -19 F -18 F C+ F C -1 C C- D-
 Thu, Feb 12 292 @Morehead St. L 72 - 77 30%
 Sat, Feb 14 343 @Southern Indiana L 71 - 72 45%
 Thu, Feb 19 241 SIU Edwardsville L 67 - 69 41%
 Sat, Feb 21 243 Lindenwood L 77 - 79 41%
 Thu, Feb 26 218 @Tennessee Martin L 64 - 74 18%
 Sat, Feb 28 229 @Southeast Missouri St. L 71 - 80 19%
Totals 9 - 19 7 - 13 -10 D+ -4 D+ C- D- D -6 D D- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D+ C- C- D+ 37% 23% 39% C- D+ C C- C- D- D+ C+ C- D C- C- D- D 38% 20% 42% C D C- F D- D+ C+ D C
1.02 54% 36% 32% -3 0 0.95 30% 1.0 .30 20% .28 74% .21 1.17 60% 40% 38% +4 0 1.10 32% 1.2 .40 15% .30 75% .21
Nov
3		 Western Kentucky D- D A+ D+ C- 30% 17% 53% B- C- D+ A+ B+ F F F F C A+ F A+ A 54% 26% 20% C- A- C F F C F F+ F
0.92 50% 56% 32% -1 0 1.00 26% 1.3 .33 25% .21 50% .10 1.08 37% 46% 20% -13 0 0.76 33% 1.4 .46 14% .54 80% .43
Nov
7		 Charlotte D- D+ F B D+ 51% 21% 28% B D+ C+ A+ A+ F A+ F C+ B C- B+ F D- 33% 25% 43% A D+ D+ F F A+ F C+ F+
0.99 55% 25% 36% -3 +1 0.97 32% 1.7 .55 26% .51 48% .25 1.07 62% 30% 47% +8 -1 1.15 37% 1.4 .52 29% .43 70% .30
Nov
17		 West Georgia F A+ C F F 36% 22% 42% F+ F F A+ C- F B- A+ A+ B A+ A- F C+ 16% 55% 29% A+ B+ D+ A+ A B D+ F F+
0.88 75% 40% 5% -12 0 0.78 23% 1.3 .29 22% .37 89% .33 0.91 25% 30% 43% -6 -6 0.78 33% 0.6 .21 19% .30 88% .26
Nov
19		 South Carolina Upstate B- B F A+ B 38% 22% 40% D+ B- B- A A- F A+ A+ A+ D+ D- F A+ D- 53% 11% 37% F F+ B B B F F A- F+
1.14 65% 20% 44% +5 0 1.11 34% 1.3 .45 22% .53 81% .43 1.09 63% 83% 24% +2 +2 1.11 24% 0.8 .19 12% .40 63% .25
Nov
26		 Kentucky F D- D F F 28% 31% 41% D F D- A C- B F F F F D- D+ F F 44% 8% 47% F F C F F C- A+ F A
0.74 47% 32% 20% -14 -2 0.70 19% 1.0 .19 15% .08 40% .03 1.43 69% 40% 50% +17 +2 1.39 36% 1.6 .57 14% .21 85% .18
Nov
29		 Georgia D+ B- F+ F D+ 54% 22% 25% B C- F A+ D+ A- B A B+ F D+ F F F 36% 6% 58% D+ F B C B- D D+ A- C
0.93 57% 29% 19% -8 +1 0.88 21% 1.2 .26 16% .29 76% .22 1.42 65% 75% 51% +20 +2 1.45 33% 1.1 .36 12% .38 69% .26
Dec
3		 Lipscomb C F A+ A+ B 30% 32% 39% D- B- D+ B- C- B- C- C- D+ C- C- A- C C- 36% 7% 57% C- C- C- B C D+ F+ A- D
1.08 41% 50% 45% +5 -2 1.09 28% 1.1 .31 16% .27 71% .19 1.12 60% 25% 34% 0 +2 1.05 26% 1.0 .26 15% .32 70% .22
Dec
6		 West Georgia B+ A+ F A+ A+ 50% 26% 24% D A+ F+ F F C- F+ A+ D+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 25% 35% 40% B A+ A- F F+ B+ F+ B D
1.25 78% 29% 62% +17 0 1.37 24% 0.3 .08 16% .27 81% .22 0.85 33% 35% 21% -15 -3 0.67 24% 1.8 .42 20% .34 68% .23
Dec
18		 Southeast Missouri St. B- C- F A- D 43% 24% 33% D+ D- C B+ B- B+ A+ A A+ C A+ B B+ A+ 38% 13% 50% D+ A+ F D+ F B F F F
1.18 55% 18% 40% -3 0 0.96 29% 1.3 .39 15% .68 83% .57 1.02 22% 33% 29% -18 +1 0.69 37% 1.3 .49 19% .53 77% .41
Dec
20		 Tennessee Martin D- A+ A+ D+ A 18% 24% 58% D- B+ D- D- D- F F+ A- D F F F F F 27% 22% 51% B F A C+ B+ F A F C+
0.98 88% 55% 31% +7 -2 1.11 27% 0.8 .21 24% .25 75% .19 1.36 71% 55% 46% +17 -1 1.33 29% 0.9 .25 11% .23 85% .19
Dec
30		 Tennessee St. D A+ C- B- A- 42% 20% 38% D B D+ F D- D- F F+ F F D A- F F 25% 37% 39% A+ D- F F F C- A+ F A+
1.08 76% 40% 37% +10 0 1.22 28% 0.9 .24 21% .24 69% .16 1.25 64% 29% 45% +5 -3 1.05 39% 1.6 .64 16% .12 86% .10
Jan
1		 Arkansas Little Rock F F F F F 23% 21% 56% F F A- F+ C F B A+ A D F D- B- F 28% 32% 40% B- F A F C D F C- F
0.86 45% 10% 26% -15 -1 0.69 44% 0.8 .33 24% .33 82% .27 1.14 92% 40% 32% +9 -2 1.15 23% 1.3 .29 16% .39 68% .26
Jan
8		 Eastern Illinois D D B F+ D- 33% 18% 49% D D- D+ D D F A+ A+ A+ F D A+ D+ D 47% 17% 36% F D- F F F F D- B- D
0.98 54% 43% 26% -6 0 0.90 32% 1.0 .32 24% .44 90% .40 1.14 59% 13% 35% -3 +1 0.98 33% 1.3 .42 13% .33 72% .24
Jan
10		 Western Illinois F D F F F 55% 18% 27% C+ F D F F D- D F F B+ C+ B F F+ 35% 40% 25% A- D D- A C+ A+ F A+ D-
0.94 56% 22% 23% -9 +1 0.88 30% 0.8 .24 18% .27 50% .14 0.86 50% 31% 40% -3 -3 0.90 31% 0.7 .21 24% .46 55% .25
Jan
15		 Southern Indiana F F A+ F F 47% 16% 37% C+ F D+ F F F+ D F F D- B A+ C C+ 55% 8% 37% F C- D D D F C A+ A-
0.79 46% 50% 16% -14 +1 0.76 29% 0.6 .17 19% .27 60% .16 1.04 45% 0% 32% -11 +3 0.85 30% 0.9 .28 4% .29 47% .14
Jan
17		 Morehead St. D D C F F 57% 21% 21% C+ F C- A+ A- B A- D+ B F B- B+ F C- 31% 39% 31% A C+ F F F F C- D- D+
1.10 52% 40% 20% -8 +1 0.89 35% 1.3 .44 13% .40 68% .27 1.20 53% 32% 40% -1 -3 0.94 46% 1.1 .51 11% .32 78% .25
Jan
22		 Lindenwood F F C+ F F 51% 27% 22% D+ F C+ F F+ F+ A+ B- A+ D- F C A+ F 61% 6% 33% F F D- F F A- D+ F F+
0.89 36% 38% 27% -13 0 0.76 35% 0.7 .23 21% .50 73% .36 1.17 71% 33% 24% +2 +4 1.14 37% 1.7 .63 24% .34 80% .27
Jan
24		 SIU Edwardsville D+ C D- F D- 38% 33% 29% D D- C+ D C- A+ D C- D D+ F A+ A+ B 37% 26% 37% D- B- F D F F C- F D-
1.00 56% 31% 21% -9 -2 0.81 35% 0.8 .30 10% .29 73% .21 1.07 71% 17% 24% -7 -1 0.87 35% 1.1 .38 14% .30 80% .24
Jan
31		 Arkansas Little Rock B+ B A+ A B+ 44% 7% 49% B B+ A+ F B+ F A+ A+ A+ F+ D F D- F 48% 28% 24% F F A A+ A+ F C- F D-
1.28 68% 67% 43% +13 +2 1.33 60% 0.7 .43 31% .45 86% .38 1.13 65% 53% 38% +9 0 1.20 23% 0.7 .15 13% .25 80% .20
Feb
2		 Tennessee St. A+ F C+ A+ A+ 35% 15% 50% D A+ D+ D D+ C+ A- C A- F+ C- D- B D 41% 29% 30% C- D F D+ F D- C- D D+
1.30 38% 43% 65% +17 0 1.37 29% 1.0 .29 17% .44 76% .33 1.23 61% 44% 29% +1 -1 1.02 48% 1.1 .50 13% .28 76% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Western Illinois A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 35% 14% 51% C- A+ A+ C- A+ B- C B- C F C+ D F F 26% 32% 43% B+ F D+ F F C- C- F D-
1.57 61% 57% 58% +22 +1 1.47 50% 1.1 .54 13% .32 76% .24 1.16 50% 40% 45% +6 -2 1.09 29% 1.2 .35 16% .31 81% .25
Feb
7		 Eastern Illinois F D- C+ F F 39% 13% 47% C F B D C+ F A+ A A+ C C+ B+ C C 39% 37% 24% B- C B F C- D- C- F+ D
0.84 53% 40% 17% -14 +1 0.76 40% 1.0 .40 33% .46 85% .39 0.93 53% 28% 33% -6 -2 0.86 22% 1.3 .28 15% .29 81% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 2.5 1.1 0.0 4.9 7th
8th 0.6 5.6 9.8 4.5 0.3 20.8 8th
9th 7.9 25.5 25.6 9.6 1.1 0.0 69.6 9th
10th 2.8 1.2 0.1 4.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 10.7 27.3 31.3 20.7 8.1 1.7 0.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.2% 2.6% 2.6% 15.0 0.0 0.2
10-10 1.7% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.7
9-11 8.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.0
8-12 20.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 20.6
7-13 31.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 31.3
6-14 27.3% 27.3
5-15 10.7% 10.7
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 10.7%