Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -17.5 362
Expected Predictive Rating -19.1 359
Pace 65.9 254
Improvement -2.4 284

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense F 359 F D- C D+ D-
Defense D- 349 D- D D C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 256 F 46% 362 -5.6 345
2 Pt. Jumpers 58% 23 D 33% 329 +1.9 80
Three Pointers 34% 311 F+ 28% 356 -6.3 345
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.3 327 F -8.7 364
1st FG Attempt F 0.82 363
Second Chance D 25.0% 327 D- 0.90 329 D- 0.23 344
Turnovers C 16.9% 181
Freethrows C 0.30 201 D- 67% 345 D+ 0.20 261
Total Offense F -10.5 359

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F 22% 365 C- 11.9% 240
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 14% 331 D- 8.3% 335
Three Pointers D 77% 318 C 0.9% 196
Total F 34% 365 D 7.1% 322

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 49 F+ 66% 352 +6.7 357
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 303 C+ 37% 146 -1.9 42
Three Pointers 40% 228 D 37% 304 +1.1 236
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.9 332 D- +4.9 348
1st FG Attempt D- 1.14 350
Second Chance D 33.5% 296 D 1.13 312 D 0.38 325
Turnovers D 14.3% 323
Freethrows C 0.31 204 C- 73% 252 C- 0.23 215
Total Defense D- -7.0 349

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 267 F+ 5.1% 355
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 22% 119 C 5.1% 153
Three Pointers C+ 83% 318 D 0.2% 196
Total C- 58% 227 D- 3.2% 345

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.1 337 16.0 18
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 341 0.24 344
Improvement -1.8 #286 -0.6 #231

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 91% 78% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Southern Indiana (Home) - 41.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 50 - 7
Quad 43 - 183 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 230 @Radford L 75 - 80 7% -5  6% 0 - 1 D+ -6 B+ +8 D A+ C+ F -14 F F F
 Fri, Nov 7 26 @Iowa L 58 - 77 0% -10  7% 0 - 2 C -0 D+ -3 D- D+ C C +0 F A+ F+
 Tue, Nov 11 322 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 58 - 74 17% -7  4% 0 - 3 F -23 F -18 D- F F D -6 D- C+ C
 Fri, Nov 14 135 @California Baptist L 59 - 69 3% -6  2% 0 - 4 D+ -6 D -5 D+ F B C- -2 B+ B- F
 Fri, Nov 21 234 Coastal Carolina L 64 - 84 17% -13  0% 0 - 5 F -27 F -16 F B C- F -10 D- F+ C-
 Sun, Nov 23 300 North Dakota L 69 - 78 26% +1  51% 0 - 6 F -20 F -17 D D D- C- -3 F B B
 Tue, Dec 2 191 @Drake L 57 - 108 5% -26  0% 0 - 7 F -50 F -14 F F B F -41 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 13 300 @North Dakota W 69 - 66 OT 12% +1  53% 1 - 7 C- -2 F -13 F A- D A+ +11 A+ F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 256 @Lindenwood L 76 - 92 9% -13  1% 1 - 8 0 - 1 F -18 D -4 D C- B+ F -13 F F D-
 Mon, Dec 22 236 SIU Edwardsville L 61 - 66 17% +3  70% 1 - 9 0 - 2 D- -12 F -15 D F+ D B- +3 B+ F A
 Thu, Jan 1 214 @Tennessee Martin L 60 - 67 6% +2  56% 1 - 10 0 - 3 D+ -7 D- -6 C F D+ C -1 B A F
 Sat, Jan 3 226 @Southeast Missouri St. L 50 - 73 7% -9  4% 1 - 11 0 - 4 F -24 F -19 F F F D -6 F+ F C
 Thu, Jan 8 250 Tennessee St. L 68 - 90 18% -14  0% 1 - 12 0 - 5 F -30 F -15 F D B+ F -14 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 319 Tennessee Tech L 54 - 59 33% +2  68% 1 - 13 0 - 6 F -18 F -22 F F F B +4 B B+ D+
 Tue, Jan 13 320 @Eastern Illinois L 55 - 57 16% -4  7% 1 - 14 0 - 7 D -9 F -17 F D C- A- +7 A- B- C
 Sat, Jan 17 302 @Arkansas Little Rock L 79 - 86 13% -6  13% 1 - 15 0 - 8 D- -12 B- +4 D- D+ A+ F -17 F D+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 288 @Morehead St. L 66 - 71 11% -1  23% 1 - 16 0 - 9 D -9 D- -8 F C+ A- C- -2 B+ F D
 Fri, Jan 23 342 @Southern Indiana L 64 - 96 22% -22  0% 1 - 17 0 - 10 F -41 F -15 F F B+ F -24 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 29 226 Southeast Missouri St. L 74 - 78 15% -2  21% 1 - 18 0 - 11 D -11 C- -1 D+ F A+ F+ -9 F C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 31 214 Tennessee Martin L 44 - 84 14% -21  0% 1 - 19 0 - 12 F -46 F -27 F F D F -22 F F F
 Thu, Feb 5 319 @Tennessee Tech L 72 - 97 16% -18  1% 1 - 20 0 - 13 F -32 C +2 C- D+ D+ F -37 F F F
 Sat, Feb 7 250 @Tennessee St. L 56 - 83 8% -21  0% 1 - 21 0 - 14 F -29 F -20 F F C- F+ -9 F A+ F
 Tue, Feb 10 320 Eastern Illinois W 79 - 70 33% +4  70% 2 - 21 1 - 14 C- -4 C- -1 C+ D- A- D+ -3 D D+ D-
 Thu, Feb 12 302 Arkansas Little Rock L 58 - 77 27% -7  7% 2 - 22 1 - 15 F -30 F -23 F F A D- -6 D+ D F
 Thu, Feb 19 342 Southern Indiana L 67 - 69 41%
 Sat, Feb 21 288 Morehead St. L 67 - 74 25%
 Thu, Feb 26 236 @SIU Edwardsville L 57 - 73 6%
 Sat, Feb 28 256 Lindenwood L 69 - 78 20%
Totals 3 - 25 2 - 18 -18 F -11 D- F D- D- -7 F+ D- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings F F D F+ F 36% 58% 34% D- F D D- D- C C D- D+ D- F+ C+ D D- 44% 16% 40% D D- D D D D C C- C-
0.94 46% 33% 28% -9 -1 0.82 25% 0.9 .23 17% .30 67% .20 1.19 66% 37% 37% +5 +1 1.14 33% 1.1 .38 14% .31 73% .22
Nov
3		 Radford B+ F A+ D+ D+ 37% 30% 33% F D A+ A+ A+ C+ B+ F C+ F F F A+ F 41% 17% 41% C- F F F F F F A F
1.21 47% 50% 33% -1 -1 0.98 47% 1.5 .72 18% .39 65% .25 1.29 82% 57% 24% +7 +1 1.17 43% 1.2 .53 11% .56 65% .36
Nov
7		 Iowa D+ C F C+ D+ 28% 37% 35% F D- D C+ D+ C B+ A+ A C F B- F F 37% 11% 52% C- F A+ A+ A+ F+ C- C+ C-
0.92 58% 25% 33% -5 -3 0.86 21% 1.0 .21 22% .37 83% .31 1.22 82% 40% 42% +15 +1 1.35 15% 0.0 .00 11% .36 75% .27
Nov
11		 Cal St. Bakersfield F F C- A+ D+ 34% 34% 32% F D- D+ F F F C- F F D C B- D D 46% 19% 35% F D- F+ A C+ C D+ F+ D
0.87 40% 40% 43% -1 -2 0.95 35% 0.6 .22 25% .36 56% .20 1.10 55% 33% 35% -2 +1 1.00 38% 0.8 .29 19% .37 80% .30
Nov
14		 California Baptist D D A- F D+ 51% 28% 21% C D+ F B- F B A- C- B+ C- B- A+ A+ A 42% 8% 50% D- B+ F A+ B- F D F F+
0.94 50% 46% 20% -6 0 0.89 12% 1.0 .12 13% .38 71% .27 1.10 50% 25% 25% -11 +2 0.83 46% 0.7 .30 10% .35 80% .28
Nov
21		 Coastal Carolina F C+ F+ F F 17% 52% 31% F F C- A+ B C- B- C B- F C+ A+ F D- 27% 20% 54% D D- F C+ F+ C- D- B- D
0.87 56% 32% 18% -11 -6 0.69 27% 1.3 .35 14% .33 71% .24 1.14 53% 18% 43% +2 -1 1.05 35% 0.9 .32 15% .32 70% .22
Nov
23		 North Dakota F F F A+ D 37% 17% 46% D D F A D D- C- F F C- D+ C F F 42% 27% 31% A- F A+ F B B C F F+
0.94 41% 25% 48% +1 0 1.04 24% 1.4 .32 23% .37 52% .20 1.07 59% 36% 44% +4 -1 1.10 12% 2.0 .23 18% .33 85% .28
Dec
2		 Drake F F A F F 23% 42% 35% F F D- F F B A F B- F F F F F 31% 16% 53% D+ F D F F D+ A F B-
0.89 45% 45% 24% -5 -4 0.83 24% 0.6 .14 13% .38 62% .23 1.69 81% 75% 59% +33 0 1.69 29% 2.2 .65 13% .21 92% .20
Dec
13		 North Dakota F F F F F 54% 18% 28% C+ F A+ D+ A- D B+ A A+ A+ B A+ A+ 48% 0% 52% F A+ D F F A+ F D+ F
0.95 33% 22% 14% -24 +1 0.56 48% 1.1 .52 22% .44 80% .35 0.91 50% 17% -17 +3 0.74 32% 1.3 .42 23% .45 72% .33
Dec
18		 Lindenwood D C+ F F D- 62% 15% 24% B+ D F A+ C- B+ A+ F C F D B F F 52% 19% 29% D F F F+ F D- F A+ F
1.00 62% 13% 23% -5 +2 0.96 21% 1.5 .32 15% .43 54% .23 1.21 63% 30% 40% +4 +1 1.12 39% 1.3 .49 16% .53 56% .30
Dec
22		 SIU Edwardsville F D D D+ D 39% 33% 28% D D F A+ F+ D B+ F+ B- B- B B+ B B 27% 38% 36% A- B+ C F F A F F F
0.86 50% 33% 31% -6 -1 0.87 14% 1.5 .21 18% .38 68% .26 0.93 50% 29% 31% -7 -3 0.82 28% 2.1 .60 24% .43 78% .34
Jan
1		 Tennessee Martin D- C+ F A+ B- 17% 36% 47% F C A- F F D+ F B- F C D+ A+ F B- 50% 38% 12% A- B D A+ A F F C- F
0.94 63% 18% 45% +1 -4 0.98 41% 0.3 .13 20% .22 73% .16 1.05 62% 19% 40% -4 -1 0.90 38% 0.5 .21 11% .54 68% .37
Jan
3		 Southeast Missouri St. F F D F F 34% 27% 39% F+ F D- F F F A+ C- A+ D C- F B- D- 59% 11% 30% F F+ F+ F F C D+ C- D+
0.77 43% 36% 19% -15 -1 0.71 21% 0.7 .14 26% .54 73% .39 1.12 58% 60% 31% +1 +3 1.09 33% 1.6 .54 17% .35 68% .24
Jan
8		 Tennessee St. F F+ F F F 71% 4% 25% A+ F D+ D+ D B+ A+ C A+ F F+ B- D F 57% 17% 26% F F C- F F C- F A+ D
0.94 50% 0% 8% -17 +4 0.77 29% 1.0 .29 15% .56 74% .41 1.25 67% 33% 36% +5 +2 1.15 32% 1.7 .55 15% .38 65% .25
Jan
10		 Tennessee Tech F F+ D- B+ F 35% 40% 25% F F C- F F F A+ F B- B C+ A+ A+ A- 55% 18% 27% F B C+ A B+ D+ C A+ A
0.86 50% 31% 40% -3 -3 0.90 31% 0.7 .21 24% .46 55% .25 0.94 56% 22% 23% -9 +1 0.88 30% 0.8 .24 18% .27 50% .14
Jan
13		 Eastern Illinois F F F F F 57% 21% 21% C+ F C- F+ D C- C A- B- A- C- A+ A+ A 45% 34% 20% C- A- C B B- C F D F
0.83 41% 30% 10% -19 +1 0.66 34% 0.9 .32 20% .34 83% .28 0.86 55% 20% 11% -15 -1 0.70 26% 0.9 .23 18% .42 78% .33
Jan
17		 Arkansas Little Rock B- A- B+ F D 39% 26% 35% F+ D- A- F D+ A+ A D- B+ F F A+ F F 31% 26% 43% D+ F B- F D+ F C- F F
1.17 71% 43% 26% +2 -1 1.06 44% 0.7 .29 12% .39 65% .25 1.27 76% 14% 43% +6 -1 1.11 27% 1.2 .33 10% .25 100% .25
Jan
22		 Morehead St. D- F C C+ F 33% 25% 42% F+ F F A+ C+ A- F F F C- D+ A- A+ A- 48% 27% 25% D B+ F F+ F D F+ A+ B
1.03 35% 38% 36% -6 -1 0.88 26% 1.4 .36 11% .23 46% .10 1.10 61% 31% 17% -7 0 0.88 50% 1.0 .52 16% .37 50% .18
Jan
23		 Southern Indiana F F+ F F F 42% 33% 25% F+ F F C+ F B+ B D B- F F+ F F F 42% 18% 40% D- F F D F C- B F C-
0.87 50% 24% 23% -12 -1 0.75 19% 1.0 .19 12% .37 71% .26 1.31 60% 55% 42% +8 +1 1.20 36% 0.9 .33 16% .26 81% .21
Jan
29		 Southeast Missouri St. C- D+ F B- D+ 35% 14% 51% C D+ D- F F A+ A- D- B F+ F A+ A- F 51% 7% 42% F F A+ F C+ B- F D+ F
1.07 53% 29% 36% -2 +1 1.00 22% 0.8 .16 10% .47 69% .32 1.13 82% 0% 28% +6 +3 1.19 18% 1.8 .32 19% .59 70% .41
Jan
31		 Tennessee Martin F F D+ D- F 37% 14% 49% B F F F F D B- D C+ F F+ F C+ F+ 51% 8% 42% F F F F F F C+ F D+
0.68 25% 33% 29% -17 +1 0.70 18% 0.3 .06 22% .35 67% .24 1.30 67% 50% 32% +4 +3 1.15 48% 1.3 .63 14% .30 76% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Tennessee Tech C F+ C+ A+ C+ 26% 32% 43% F C- D+ C D+ D+ C+ B+ B- F D+ F F F 35% 14% 51% D- F F D+ F F D C- D
1.16 50% 40% 45% +6 -2 1.09 29% 1.2 .35 16% .31 81% .25 1.57 61% 57% 58% +22 +1 1.47 50% 1.1 .54 13% .32 76% .24
Feb
7		 Tennessee St. F F C- F F 35% 24% 41% F F D- F F C- B- C- C+ F+ F C+ A- F 45% 29% 26% D+ F D+ A+ A+ F A F B-
0.82 47% 42% 20% -11 -1 0.78 26% 0.6 .16 19% .40 73% .29 1.22 85% 35% 27% +8 -1 1.17 33% 0.4 .12 12% .20 92% .18
Feb
10		 Eastern Illinois C- A- D- A B+ 25% 35% 39% F C+ F B+ D- A- A D A- D+ C- F A+ F+ 28% 37% 35% A- D C+ F D+ D- B A+ A
1.10 69% 33% 40% +5 -3 1.06 24% 1.3 .30 15% .43 73% .31 0.97 56% 48% 25% -2 -3 0.93 24% 1.2 .30 15% .23 57% .13
Feb
12		 Arkansas Little Rock F B- F F F 43% 13% 43% C+ F F F F A C F F D- C+ A+ F C- 42% 27% 31% F+ D+ C F D F B- A+ B
0.82 65% 14% 22% -8 +1 0.89 13% 0.6 .08 14% .30 44% .13 1.09 56% 19% 44% -1 -1 0.98 31% 1.2 .36 10% .20 54% .11



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10.2 13.9 3.4 0.2 27.7 10th
11th 34.3 32.9 4.9 0.1 72.3 11th
Total 34.3 43.1 18.9 3.5 0.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 3.5% 3.5
3-17 18.9% 18.9
2-18 43.1% 43.1
1-19 34.3% 34.3
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2%
Lose Out 34.3%