Western Illinois
Summit League
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#256
Expected Predictive Rating-2.2#212
Pace68.8#164
Improvement+1.0#71

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#197
First Shot+0.1#178
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#243
Layup/Dunks+1.0#125
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#238
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#272
Freethrows+2.5#31
Improvement+0.6#86

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#299
First Shot-3.9#302
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#202
Layups/Dunks-8.5#363
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#316
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#26
Freethrows+1.9#52
Improvement+0.4#121
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.1% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 89.0% 97.0% 79.7%
.500 or above in Conference 89.0% 97.0% 79.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round0.9% 1.0% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Away) - 53.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 412 - 514 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 234   @ Illinois St. W 71-68 36%     1 - 0 +2.0 -1.0 +3.0
  Nov 11, 2022 124   @ DePaul L 74-86 17%     1 - 1 -6.7 +1.6 -8.3
  Nov 14, 2022 65   @ Central Florida L 37-70 8%     1 - 2 -21.9 -26.1 +1.2
  Nov 21, 2022 279   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 77-78 45%     1 - 3 -4.6 -2.6 -1.9
  Nov 26, 2022 131   Youngstown St. L 64-88 34%     1 - 4 -24.6 -14.5 -9.9
  Nov 30, 2022 270   Southern Indiana W 86-78 63%     2 - 4 -0.3 +1.5 -2.4
  Dec 03, 2022 279   UT Rio Grande Valley W 90-72 66%     3 - 4 +9.0 +2.4 +4.7
  Dec 10, 2022 343   @ Eastern Illinois W 79-75 66%     4 - 4 -5.0 +11.0 -15.6
  Dec 19, 2022 241   North Dakota St. W 79-60 58%     5 - 4 1 - 0 +12.1 +3.1 +9.4
  Dec 29, 2022 200   @ South Dakota St. L 64-71 28%     5 - 5 1 - 1 -5.8 +0.4 -7.0
  Dec 31, 2022 286   @ South Dakota L 63-80 47%     5 - 6 1 - 2 -21.0 -13.1 -8.2
  Jan 05, 2023 310   Nebraska Omaha L 74-78 72%     5 - 7 1 - 3 -14.8 -3.4 -11.5
  Jan 07, 2023 318   Denver W 91-74 74%     6 - 7 2 - 3 +5.6 +4.4 +0.0
  Jan 12, 2023 69   @ Oral Roberts L 63-87 8%     6 - 8 2 - 4 -13.1 -8.4 -4.3
  Jan 14, 2023 259   @ UMKC W 60-52 41%     7 - 8 3 - 4 +5.6 -4.2 +10.8
  Jan 21, 2023 266   St. Thomas W 60-56 63%     8 - 8 4 - 4 -4.3 -9.5 +5.9
  Jan 23, 2023 322   North Dakota W 92-80 75%     9 - 8 5 - 4 +0.1 +7.2 -7.7
  Jan 26, 2023 286   South Dakota W 75-72 67%     10 - 8 6 - 4 -6.4 +4.5 -10.5
  Jan 28, 2023 200   South Dakota St. W 81-73 OT 48%     11 - 8 7 - 4 +3.8 +6.3 -2.7
  Feb 02, 2023 318   @ Denver W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 04, 2023 310   @ Nebraska Omaha W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 09, 2023 259   UMKC W 68-65 63%    
  Feb 11, 2023 69   Oral Roberts L 74-84 18%    
  Feb 18, 2023 266   @ St. Thomas L 72-74 41%    
  Feb 23, 2023 322   @ North Dakota W 73-71 55%    
  Feb 25, 2023 241   @ North Dakota St. L 72-75 37%    
Projected Record 14 - 12 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.8 8.3 9.1 3.5 0.5 23.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.9 14.0 13.9 3.4 0.2 33.4 3rd
4th 0.5 10.0 11.0 1.5 0.0 23.1 4th
5th 0.1 3.6 7.5 1.1 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.4 3.9 1.1 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.9 1.2 0.0 2.2 7th
8th 0.3 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 1.8 9.3 20.6 27.9 23.7 12.5 3.7 0.5 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 3.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.5% 4.5% 4.5% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-5 3.7% 2.6% 2.6% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.6
12-6 12.5% 1.8% 1.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.3
11-7 23.7% 1.1% 1.1% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 23.4
10-8 27.9% 0.8% 0.8% 15.7 0.1 0.2 27.7
9-9 20.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2 20.4
8-10 9.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.2
7-11 1.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.8
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 4.5% 14.1 0.8 2.6 1.1
Lose Out 1.8% 0.3% 16.0 0.3