Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.9#356
Expected Predictive Rating-16.1#350
Pace63.1#334
Improvement-0.3#205

Offense
Total Offense-7.3#343
First Shot-5.4#330
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#298
Layup/Dunks-3.2#288
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#19
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#330
Freethrows-1.0#249
Improvement-1.6#309

Defense
Total Defense-6.6#348
First Shot-5.9#349
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#243
Layups/Dunks-0.7#202
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#169
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#338
Freethrows-0.8#236
Improvement+1.3#92
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 1.0% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 5.4% 10.9% 3.2%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 55.7% 39.1% 62.2%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Home) - 28.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 50 - 7
Quad 46 - 156 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 259 @Radford L 75-80 14%     0 - 1 -7.4 +9.6 -17.6
  Fri, Nov 7 23 @Iowa L 58-77 1%     0 - 2 -0.5 +0.4 -3.0
  Tue, Nov 11 313 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 58-74 22%     0 - 3 -21.8 -14.6 -8.0
  Fri, Nov 14 125 @California Baptist L 59-69 5%     0 - 4 -4.8 -4.3 -1.6
  Fri, Nov 21 262 Coastal Carolina L 64-84 30%     0 - 5 -28.5 -13.6 -13.8
  Sun, Nov 23 331 North Dakota L 69-78 49%     0 - 6 -22.5 -12.6 -9.5
  Tue, Dec 2 139 @Drake L 57-108 5%     0 - 7 -46.7 -9.4 -42.2
  Sat, Dec 13 331 @North Dakota W 69-66 OT 27%     1 - 7 -4.5 -8.8 +4.2
  Thu, Dec 18 225 @Lindenwood L 76-92 11%     1 - 8 0 - 1 -16.8 -1.6 -13.9
  Mon, Dec 22 245 SIU Edwardsville L 63-69 28%    
  Thu, Jan 1 258 @Tennessee Martin L 61-73 14%    
  Sat, Jan 3 226 @Southeast Missouri St. L 65-78 11%    
  Thu, Jan 8 222 Tennessee St. L 66-73 25%    
  Sat, Jan 10 241 Tennessee Tech L 68-74 28%    
  Tue, Jan 13 324 @Eastern Illinois L 63-70 26%    
  Sat, Jan 17 309 @Arkansas Little Rock L 64-72 22%    
  Thu, Jan 22 310 @Morehead St. L 65-73 22%    
  Sat, Jan 24 335 @Southern Indiana L 68-74 30%    
  Thu, Jan 29 226 Southeast Missouri St. L 68-75 27%    
  Sat, Jan 31 258 Tennessee Martin L 64-70 31%    
  Thu, Feb 5 241 @Tennessee Tech L 65-77 14%    
  Sat, Feb 7 222 @Tennessee St. L 63-76 12%    
  Tue, Feb 10 324 Eastern Illinois L 66-67 46%    
  Thu, Feb 12 309 Arkansas Little Rock L 67-69 42%    
  Thu, Feb 19 335 Southern Indiana L 70-71 50%    
  Sat, Feb 21 310 Morehead St. L 68-70 42%    
  Thu, Feb 26 245 @SIU Edwardsville L 60-72 14%    
  Sat, Feb 28 225 Lindenwood L 69-76 26%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.9 0.1 3.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.4 3.0 0.5 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.8 4.3 1.1 0.0 0.0 12.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.7 5.1 7.5 5.7 1.8 0.1 22.2 10th
11th 1.4 4.7 8.9 11.4 10.0 5.7 1.4 0.1 0.0 43.6 11th
Total 1.4 4.7 9.2 13.1 15.4 15.4 13.1 10.4 7.3 4.5 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 80.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 46.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 17.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 4.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.1
13-7 0.3% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
12-8 0.6% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
11-9 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
10-10 2.8% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 2.7
9-11 4.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.5
8-12 7.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.3
7-13 10.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.4
6-14 13.1% 13.1
5-15 15.4% 15.4
4-16 15.4% 15.4
3-17 13.1% 13.1
2-18 9.2% 9.2
1-19 4.7% 4.7
0-20 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%