Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -14.0 #357
Expected Predictive Rating -17.2 #351
Pace 63.6 #327
Improvement +0.3 #171

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #354 F D D C F
Defense #332 F D+ D- D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #270 0.92 #361 -6.1 #343
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #17 0.69 #244 +2.9 #49
Three Pointers 33% #324 0.93 #267 -5.3 #326
1st FG Attempt 0.85 #353 -8.5 #356
Freethrows 15.8 #267 69% #279 10.9 #277
Second Chance 26.9% #282 0.97 #261 0.26 #292
Turnovers 17.1% #206
Total Offense -8.8 #354

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #112 1.27 #303 -3.6 #293
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #250 0.80 #255 +0.8 #141
Three Pointers 41% #179 1.13 #312 -2.4 #284
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #330 -5.3 #327
Freethrows 18.9 #263 75% #290 14.1 #289
Second Chance 33.6% #284 1.17 #311 0.39 #326
Turnovers 14.2% #317
Total Defense -5.2 #332

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.3% #343 1.0% #265
Shot Type Make % Effect -13.1% #348 9.9% #330
Possession Length 20.1 #361 16.3 #40
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #323 0.25 #352
Improvement -3.2 #349 +3.4 #16

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.2% 5.2% 1.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 62.4% 47.3% 67.5%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Home) - 25.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 50 - 7
Quad 46 - 166 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 243 @Radford L 75-80 13%     -5.0   0 - 1 -6.8 +9.6 -17.0
  Fri, Nov 7 16 @Iowa L 58-77 0.5%    -10.5   0 - 2 +1.0 +1.1 -2.1
  Tue, Nov 11 292 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 58-74 18%     -7.2   0 - 3 -20.3 -14.2 -6.8
  Fri, Nov 14 147 @California Baptist L 59-69 6%     -5.7   0 - 4 -6.4 -4.0 -3.5
  Fri, Nov 21 267 Coastal Carolina L 64-84 32%     -12.8   0 - 5 -29.0 -14.2 -13.8
  Sun, Nov 23 317 North Dakota L 69-78 43%     1.3   0 - 6 -21.2 -12.4 -8.5
  Tue, Dec 2 149 @Drake L 57-108 6%     -25.6   0 - 7 -47.5 -8.9 -43.5
  Sat, Dec 13 317 @North Dakota W 69-66 OT 23%     0.7   1 - 7 -3.2 -8.6 +5.3
  Thu, Dec 18 230 @Lindenwood L 76-92 12%     -13.2   1 - 8 0 - 1 -17.0 -2.0 -13.8
  Mon, Dec 22 266 SIU Edwardsville L 61-66 32%     3.0   1 - 9 0 - 2 -14.0 -14.0 +0.1
  Thu, Jan 1 237 @Tennessee Martin L 60-67 12%     15.3   1 - 10 0 - 3 -8.5 -6.1 -3.0
  Sat, Jan 3 216 @Southeast Missouri St. L 50-73 11%     -8.9   1 - 11 0 - 4 -23.3 -17.9 -7.1
  Thu, Jan 8 229 Tennessee St. L 67-74 25%    
  Sat, Jan 10 314 Tennessee Tech L 69-71 42%    
  Tue, Jan 13 318 @Eastern Illinois L 60-68 23%    
  Sat, Jan 17 303 @Arkansas Little Rock L 62-71 20%    
  Thu, Jan 22 305 @Morehead St. L 62-71 21%    
  Sat, Jan 24 328 @Southern Indiana L 64-71 27%    
  Thu, Jan 29 216 Southeast Missouri St. L 66-74 24%    
  Sat, Jan 31 237 Tennessee Martin L 63-69 27%    
  Thu, Feb 5 314 @Tennessee Tech L 66-74 23%    
  Sat, Feb 7 229 @Tennessee St. L 64-77 12%    
  Tue, Feb 10 318 Eastern Illinois L 63-65 44%    
  Thu, Feb 12 303 Arkansas Little Rock L 65-68 39%    
  Thu, Feb 19 328 Southern Indiana L 67-68 48%    
  Sat, Feb 21 305 Morehead St. L 65-68 40%    
  Thu, Feb 26 266 @SIU Edwardsville L 59-70 16%    
  Sat, Feb 28 230 Lindenwood L 68-75 26%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.0 0.2 3.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.9 2.3 0.4 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.7 4.1 0.8 0.1 12.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.8 8.8 5.5 1.4 0.1 24.3 10th
11th 1.4 5.8 10.7 13.4 11.7 5.5 1.3 0.1 49.8 11th
Total 1.4 5.8 11.1 15.7 17.8 16.5 12.4 9.0 5.3 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 33.3% 0.0    0.0
13-7 22.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.2% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
11-9 0.6% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5
10-10 1.4% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.3
9-11 2.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.8
8-12 5.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.3
7-13 9.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.0
6-14 12.4% 12.4
5-15 16.5% 16.5
4-16 17.8% 17.8
3-17 15.7% 15.7
2-18 11.1% 11.1
1-19 5.8% 5.8
0-20 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%