IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Western Illinois
Ohio Valley
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-11.2	#339
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	62.4	#329
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-6.0	#335

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.2	#331

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.0%	5.2%	1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	17.8	15.5	15.6

.500 or above	13.6%	35.2%	11.6%
.500 or above in Conference	26.1%	45.9%	24.2%
Conference Champion	2.1%	5.2%	1.8%
Last Place in Conference	24.6%	10.7%	25.9%

First Four	1.0%	1.5%	0.9%
First Round	1.8%	5.5%	1.5%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Radford (Away) - 8.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 3	1 - 5	1 - 8
Quad 4	9 - 11	9 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	150	@ Radford	L	56-71	8%
Nov 07, 2025	32	@ Iowa	L	58-86	1%
Nov 11, 2025	223	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	61-72	16%
Nov 14, 2025	169	@ California Baptist	L	59-72	12%
Nov 20, 2025	275	Coastal Carolina	L	63-65	44%
Nov 23, 2025	315	North Dakota	W	71-70	52%
Dec 02, 2025	114	@ Drake	L	49-67	6%
Dec 13, 2025	315	@ North Dakota	L	68-73	32%
Dec 18, 2025	327	@ Lindenwood	L	66-70	36%
Dec 22, 2025	240	SIU Edwardsville	L	62-66	37%
Jan 01, 2026	323	@ Tennessee Martin	L	64-69	35%
Jan 03, 2026	231	@ Southeast Missouri St.	L	63-73	18%
Jan 08, 2026	259	Tennessee St.	L	69-72	40%
Jan 10, 2026	328	Tennessee Tech	W	69-67	55%
Jan 13, 2026	322	@ Eastern Illinois	L	62-67	35%
Jan 17, 2026	177	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	60-73	15%
Jan 22, 2026	293	@ Morehead St.	L	59-66	28%
Jan 24, 2026	298	@ Southern Indiana	L	64-71	29%
Jan 29, 2026	231	Southeast Missouri St.	L	66-70	37%
Jan 31, 2026	323	Tennessee Martin	W	67-66	54%
Feb 05, 2026	328	@ Tennessee Tech	L	66-70	36%
Feb 07, 2026	259	@ Tennessee St.	L	66-75	23%
Feb 10, 2026	322	Eastern Illinois	W	65-64	54%
Feb 12, 2026	177	Arkansas Little Rock	L	63-70	28%
Feb 19, 2026	298	Southern Indiana	L	67-68	48%
Feb 21, 2026	293	Morehead St.	L	62-63	47%
Feb 26, 2026	240	@ SIU Edwardsville	L	59-69	21%
Feb 28, 2026	327	Lindenwood	W	69-67	56%
Projected Record						9 - 19	7 - 13

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0		2.1	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	0.5	1.2	1.2	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.0				3.9	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.8	1.8	1.4	0.6	0.1							4.8	3rd
4th										0.1	1.1	2.4	1.7	0.5	0.1								5.8	4th
5th								0.0	0.2	1.3	3.2	2.1	0.5	0.0									7.3	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	1.6	3.7	2.5	0.5	0.0										8.6	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	1.8	4.5	3.1	0.6	0.0											10.2	7th
8th					0.0	0.4	2.2	4.9	3.4	0.8	0.0												11.7	8th
9th				0.1	0.7	2.9	5.1	3.3	0.9	0.0													13.0	9th
10th		0.0	0.3	1.9	4.2	5.1	3.0	0.7	0.0														15.3	10th
11th	0.7	2.2	4.1	4.8	3.7	1.5	0.3	0.0															17.4	11th

Total	0.7	2.2	4.4	6.7	8.6	9.9	10.9	10.9	10.6	9.0	7.5	5.9	4.6	3.3	2.2	1.4	0.7	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
18-2	94.8%	0.1		0.1	0.0
17-3	87.0%	0.3		0.2	0.1
16-4	63.4%	0.4		0.3	0.1	0.0
15-5	42.8%	0.6		0.3	0.2	0.0
14-6	18.2%	0.4		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-7	5.5%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-8	0.5%	0.0				0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	2.1%	2.1		1.2	0.6	0.3	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%		100.0%	100.0%		13.5														0.0	0.0
19-1	0.0%		71.5%	71.5%		14.2															0.0	0.0		0.0
18-2	0.2%		39.6%	39.6%		14.1													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
17-3	0.3%		31.8%	31.8%		14.7													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.2
16-4	0.7%		27.3%	27.3%		16.8														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.5
15-5	1.4%		21.9%	21.9%		17.0															0.0	0.2	0.1	1.1
14-6	2.2%		15.2%	15.2%		19.1															0.0	0.1	0.3	1.9
13-7	3.3%		11.4%	11.4%		19.4															0.0	0.1	0.4	2.9
12-8	4.6%		4.9%	4.9%		18.1																0.1	0.2	4.4
11-9	5.9%		3.2%	3.2%		18.8																0.0	0.2	5.7
10-10	7.5%		1.7%	1.7%		17.5																0.0	0.1	7.4
9-11	9.0%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	9.0
8-12	10.6%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	10.5
7-13	10.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.9
6-14	10.9%																							10.9
5-15	9.9%																							9.9
4-16	8.6%																							8.6
3-17	6.7%																							6.7
2-18	4.4%																							4.4
1-19	2.2%																							2.2
0-20	0.7%																							0.7

Total	100%		2.0%	2.0%	0.0%	17.8													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.5	98.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.3%