Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
137 Chattanooga 24.5%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 6 +1.3      +2.6 100 -1.3 204 66.5 234 0.0 121 0.0 1
148 East Tennessee St. 18.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 +0.1      -0.2 171 +0.3 155 63.7 305 0.0 121 0.0 1
165 Furman 15.4%   0 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 12 11 - 7 -0.6      +1.2 127 -1.8 229 65.9 256 -7.3 329 0.0 1
182 Samford 12.4%   0 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 8 -1.5      +1.3 122 -2.8 271 75.5 30 -6.4 326 0.0 1
229 UNC Greensboro 7.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 9 -3.8      -2.8 247 -1.0 195 61.6 342 0.0 121 0.0 1
231 Wofford 6.9%   0 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -4.0      -1.8 223 -2.2 246 61.8 339 -4.3 314 0.0 1
242 Mercer 6.2%   0 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 9 -4.3      -3.6 281 -0.8 189 75.7 29 +6.4 48 0.0 1
270 Western Carolina 4.5%   0 - 1 0 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 10 -5.7      -3.8 288 -1.9 230 74.5 44 +2.3 97 0.0 1
284 VMI 3.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 11 -6.7      -3.7 284 -3.0 279 69.6 144 0.0 121 0.0 1
345 The Citadel 0.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 21 5 - 13 -11.2      -5.7 331 -5.6 343 62.8 321 0.0 121 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Chattanooga 3.1 32.8 19.0 14.0 10.6 8.0 5.9 4.2 3.0 1.8 0.7
East Tennessee St. 3.5 24.5 18.9 14.0 11.9 9.5 7.6 5.8 4.2 2.5 1.1
Furman 3.8 20.3 17.0 14.7 12.8 10.2 8.6 6.5 5.3 3.2 1.5
Samford 4.2 15.4 14.8 14.4 13.1 11.9 10.2 8.0 6.2 4.1 2.0
UNC Greensboro 5.3 8.3 10.2 11.3 11.3 11.7 11.6 11.0 10.7 8.6 5.3
Wofford 5.4 7.2 9.1 10.9 11.5 12.2 12.9 12.2 10.6 8.5 4.8
Mercer 5.6 6.6 8.3 10.2 11.1 12.2 12.5 12.3 11.5 9.5 5.7
Western Carolina 6.2 4.3 6.0 7.5 9.4 11.3 12.1 13.4 14.1 12.8 9.0
VMI 6.6 3.4 5.3 6.1 7.9 9.5 11.2 13.1 14.5 16.5 12.5
The Citadel 8.4 0.5 0.9 1.8 2.8 3.9 6.1 9.1 13.0 22.0 39.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Chattanooga 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.3 3.7 5.3 7.5 9.4 10.6 11.9 12.4 11.5 10.0 7.3 4.1 1.5
East Tennessee St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.2 5.1 7.0 8.8 10.4 11.3 12.1 11.3 10.4 7.9 5.3 2.5 0.8
Furman 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.5 4.4 5.9 7.9 9.7 10.6 12.1 11.6 11.1 8.8 6.4 4.1 1.7 0.4
Samford 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.3 5.3 7.1 9.3 11.2 11.7 11.5 11.0 9.4 7.4 5.0 2.6 1.1 0.3
UNC Greensboro 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.1 4.8 6.9 8.3 9.8 10.6 11.2 10.9 9.6 8.1 5.9 4.5 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.1
Wofford 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.6 6.5 8.8 10.7 11.8 11.9 10.6 9.8 7.9 5.5 3.7 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1
Mercer 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.3 5.3 7.1 9.5 10.8 11.9 11.6 10.6 8.7 7.5 5.0 3.2 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
Western Carolina 8 - 10 0.2 1.3 2.9 5.0 6.9 9.6 11.5 11.7 11.4 10.9 9.2 7.0 5.2 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
VMI 7 - 11 0.6 2.0 4.2 6.4 9.2 10.8 11.7 11.5 10.7 9.4 7.4 5.8 4.4 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
The Citadel 5 - 13 4.0 8.7 13.0 14.0 14.2 12.4 10.3 8.2 5.6 3.9 2.6 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Chattanooga 32.8% 23.6 7.1 1.8 0.3 0.1
East Tennessee St. 24.5% 16.9 5.9 1.5 0.2 0.1
Furman 20.3% 13.2 5.3 1.5 0.3 0.0
Samford 15.4% 9.8 4.2 1.2 0.2 0.0
UNC Greensboro 8.3% 4.8 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0
Wofford 7.2% 4.2 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
Mercer 6.6% 3.8 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
Western Carolina 4.3% 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
VMI 3.4% 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
The Citadel 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Chattanooga 24.5% 24.4% 0.1% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.0 5.8 6.8 5.4 3.0 1.6 75.5 0.1%
East Tennessee St. 18.6% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.5 4.9 4.6 3.0 1.8 81.4 0.0%
Furman 15.4% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.1 3.4 4.0 3.3 2.5 84.6 0.0%
Samford 12.4% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.8 3.2 3.1 2.4 87.6 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.2 1.8 1.9 92.3 0.0%
Wofford 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.3 93.1 0.0%
Mercer 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.5 93.8 0.0%
Western Carolina 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.3 95.6 0.0%
VMI 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.2 96.6 0.0%
The Citadel 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 99.3 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Chattanooga 24.5% 0.8% 24.4% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 18.6% 0.9% 18.6% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 15.4% 1.3% 15.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 12.4% 1.1% 12.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 7.7% 1.0% 7.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 6.9% 1.2% 6.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 6.2% 1.0% 6.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 4.5% 1.0% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 3.4% 0.8% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 96.4% 1.0 3.6 93.4 3.0
2nd Round 7.4% 0.1 92.6 7.4
Sweet Sixteen 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0