Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
123 East Tennessee St. 36.2%   14   6 - 4 0 - 0 21 - 8 14 - 4 +2.8      +1.7 123 +1.0 128 66.8 255 +0.3 162 0.0 1
152 Furman 23.3%   5 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 6 +0.6      +0.8 143 -0.2 175 66.8 258 +2.0 140 0.0 1
173 Mercer 16.2%   5 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 11 11 - 7 -1.0      +0.1 162 -1.1 204 74.6 53 +5.3 97 0.0 1
223 Wofford 7.4%   6 - 5 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 -3.7      -1.4 206 -2.3 249 68.0 220 -0.8 178 0.0 1
233 Samford 6.6%   5 - 6 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -4.1      -0.9 181 -3.3 281 69.4 187 -2.3 203 0.0 1
246 Chattanooga 5.1%   2 - 7 0 - 0 11 - 17 9 - 9 -5.0      -0.9 187 -4.1 313 65.9 280 -10.1 315 0.0 1
293 UNC Greensboro 2.4%   2 - 9 0 - 0 10 - 19 8 - 10 -7.1      -2.6 238 -4.5 325 68.0 222 -10.5 320 0.0 1
301 Western Carolina 2.1%   2 - 7 0 - 0 9 - 18 7 - 11 -7.4      -4.4 290 -3.0 276 74.5 56 -5.9 254 0.0 1
333 VMI 0.5%   2 - 7 0 - 0 8 - 20 5 - 13 -10.5      -4.1 278 -6.5 346 68.1 219 -11.9 331 0.0 1
354 The Citadel 0.1%   0 - 9 0 - 0 4 - 24 4 - 14 -13.6      -4.9 302 -8.7 362 63.6 322 -19.7 361 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Dec 15 362 Gardner-Webb 57 223 Wofford 83   
Tue, Dec 16 123 East Tennessee St. 58 22 North Carolina 77   
Tue, Dec 16 304 N.C. A&T 71 293 UNC Greensboro 65   
Wed, Dec 17 173 Mercer 63 55 Central Florida 81   
Wed, Dec 17 274 Bellarmine 79 246 Chattanooga 64   
Wed, Dec 17 100 Wichita St. 84 223 Wofford 73   
Wed, Dec 17 184 College of Charleston 82 354 The Citadel 78   
Thu, Dec 18 152 Furman 75 319 Manhattan 68   
Thu, Dec 18 19 Georgia 112 301 Western Carolina 82   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 20 173 Mercer 75 150 Washington St. 80 68%   
Sat, Dec 20 123 East Tennessee St. 73 271 Jacksonville St. 61 86%   
Sat, Dec 20 105 Richmond 84 354 The Citadel 63 96%   
Sun, Dec 21 281 Alabama A&M 71 246 Chattanooga 69 56%   
Sun, Dec 21 238 Charleston Southern 70 152 Furman 78 78%   
Sun, Dec 21 255 Radford 84 333 VMI 76 78%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
East Tennessee St. 1.9 52.8 23.1 12.0 6.2 3.2 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Furman 2.7 30.4 26.1 17.4 11.5 6.6 4.2 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.1
Mercer 3.3 19.1 21.6 19.8 14.7 10.4 6.9 4.2 2.1 0.9 0.2
Wofford 4.6 7.1 11.9 15.5 16.8 16.0 13.2 9.6 6.0 3.0 0.9
Samford 4.8 5.8 10.2 14.3 16.4 15.8 14.3 10.8 7.3 3.9 1.1
Chattanooga 5.2 4.1 8.1 12.0 14.5 15.6 15.1 13.2 9.8 5.8 2.0
UNC Greensboro 6.3 1.5 3.6 6.2 9.6 12.9 15.4 17.5 16.5 11.7 5.0
Western Carolina 6.5 1.3 3.3 6.0 8.8 12.2 15.0 17.2 17.6 12.6 5.9
VMI 7.9 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.2 5.8 9.1 13.3 19.7 27.5 18.7
The Citadel 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.6 6.5 12.9 25.2 48.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
East Tennessee St. 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.5 4.6 8.1 11.7 15.4 17.7 16.8 12.8 6.7 2.0
Furman 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.9 3.4 5.9 9.0 12.5 15.1 15.7 14.2 11.5 6.4 2.6 0.6
Mercer 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.6 6.1 9.3 12.3 14.2 15.3 13.8 10.9 6.8 3.3 1.2 0.2
Wofford 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.9 5.4 8.7 11.6 14.4 15.1 13.7 10.9 7.5 4.5 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
Samford 9 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.5 6.4 10.0 12.7 14.4 14.7 12.9 9.9 6.5 3.7 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Chattanooga 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.8 5.6 8.2 11.7 13.8 14.4 13.2 11.2 8.1 4.9 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
UNC Greensboro 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.5 6.6 10.0 13.3 15.3 14.2 12.7 9.5 6.5 3.6 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Western Carolina 7 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.0 7.1 11.0 13.7 14.6 14.3 12.0 8.9 5.9 3.5 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
VMI 5 - 13 0.7 2.9 6.8 11.4 15.0 16.2 14.9 12.0 8.7 5.6 3.1 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 4 - 14 3.7 10.1 15.9 19.2 17.5 13.6 9.1 5.4 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
East Tennessee St. 52.8% 39.3 11.3 2.0 0.3 0.0
Furman 30.4% 20.1 8.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mercer 19.1% 11.5 5.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wofford 7.1% 3.6 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Samford 5.8% 3.0 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Chattanooga 4.1% 1.9 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
UNC Greensboro 1.5% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Carolina 1.3% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
VMI 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
East Tennessee St. 36.2% 36.2% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.6 11.1 13.3 6.5 1.0 63.8 0.0%
Furman 23.3% 23.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 5.6 9.0 5.7 1.3 76.7 0.0%
Mercer 16.2% 16.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 3.5 6.2 4.8 1.1 83.8 0.0%
Wofford 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.3 2.2 92.6 0.0%
Samford 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.8 2.4 93.4 0.0%
Chattanooga 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.5 94.9 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 2.1 97.6 0.0%
Western Carolina 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 97.9 0.0%
VMI 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
East Tennessee St. 36.2% 0.2% 36.1% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 23.3% 0.3% 23.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 16.2% 0.3% 16.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 7.4% 0.8% 7.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 6.6% 1.1% 6.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 5.1% 2.4% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 2.4% 1.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 2.1% 1.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 96.1% 1.0 3.9 96.1
2nd Round 5.1% 0.1 94.9 5.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0