Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
141 East Tennessee St. 32.2%   15   17 - 8 11 - 3 +1.3      +0.7 148 +0.6 149 65.6 262 -0.6 172 +0.8 1
165 Mercer 20.6%   14 - 10 9 - 5 -0.4      +0.5 150 -0.9 206 73.4 62 -0.1 158 -2.2 3
174 Furman 16.5%   14 - 10 8 - 6 -0.8      -1.3 199 +0.4 157 65.5 263 -1.5 185 -4.3 6
187 Samford 14.2%   13 - 12 8 - 6 -1.7      +0.7 147 -2.4 251 67.7 208 -2.4 206 -3.0 4
223 Wofford 10.1%   15 - 10 9 - 5 -3.5      +1.1 135 -4.6 307 69.3 159 -1.5 184 -1.2 2
261 Western Carolina 3.2%   8 - 15 6 - 8 -5.6      -0.3 171 -5.3 317 71.3 110 -6.5 271 -6.4 7
293 Chattanooga 1.1%   7 - 17 4 - 10 -7.5      -3.9 276 -3.6 280 66.5 240 -9.7 318 -9.7 9
296 UNC Greensboro 2.0%   10 - 15 8 - 6 -7.6      -0.5 177 -7.1 350 67.9 204 -6.5 273 -4.0 5
347 The Citadel 0.1%   6 - 18 6 - 8 -12.7      -6.4 329 -6.3 338 61.8 343 -11.1 332 -6.6 8
358 VMI 0.0%   3 - 21 1 - 13 -15.9      -6.2 323 -9.7 363 68.3 192 -16.3 356 -20.2 10


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Feb 14 141 East Tennessee St. 72 187 Samford 82   
Sat, Feb 14 165 Mercer 70 347 The Citadel 54   
Sat, Feb 14 293 Chattanooga 76 261 Western Carolina 81   
Sat, Feb 14 296 UNC Greensboro 99 223 Wofford 89   
Sat, Feb 14 174 Furman 90 358 VMI 72   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Feb 18 141 East Tennessee St. 69 174 Furman 70 53%   
Wed, Feb 18 296 UNC Greensboro 78 261 Western Carolina 83 69%   
Wed, Feb 18 358 VMI 71 223 Wofford 87 92%   
Thu, Feb 19 293 Chattanooga 71 165 Mercer 81 83%   
Thu, Feb 19 187 Samford 75 347 The Citadel 67 78%   
Sat, Feb 21 165 Mercer 81 187 Samford 76 66%   
Sat, Feb 21 174 Furman 74 223 Wofford 75 51%   
Sat, Feb 21 141 East Tennessee St. 78 296 UNC Greensboro 72 72%   
Sat, Feb 21 293 Chattanooga 70 347 The Citadel 68 59%   
Sat, Feb 21 358 VMI 76 261 Western Carolina 83 76%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
East Tennessee St. 1.1 89.4 7.3 2.4 0.8 0.2
Mercer 2.4 19.7 43.6 18.9 11.3 5.6 0.8 0.1
Furman 3.8 3.1 16.0 20.7 24.1 28.1 6.9 0.9 0.1
Samford 3.4 2.6 23.7 24.9 31.2 12.9 4.5 0.2
Wofford 2.5 14.0 40.7 29.0 11.7 4.2 0.4
Western Carolina 6.4 0.0 0.3 4.4 10.9 29.9 46.9 7.2 0.4
Chattanooga 8.4 1.0 10.8 38.3 49.9
UNC Greensboro 5.6 0.3 1.8 4.3 10.0 18.1 48.1 17.0 0.4
The Citadel 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.7 20.1 51.7 23.6
VMI 10.0 0.1 99.9

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
East Tennessee St. 13 - 5 19 - 10 2.7 15.3 34.4 34.8 12.9
Mercer 12 - 6 17 - 11 1.6 10.5 30.7 37.7 19.4
Furman 11 - 7 17 - 11 1.0 13.3 34.6 36.1 15.0
Samford 11 - 7 16 - 13 0.2 4.6 25.0 49.2 21.0
Wofford 12 - 6 18 - 11 0.7 7.3 39.5 42.2 10.3
Western Carolina 8 - 10 10 - 17 3.4 18.1 36.3 31.9 10.3
Chattanooga 6 - 12 9 - 19 2.1 18.2 40.4 33.3 6.0
UNC Greensboro 9 - 9 11 - 18 25.4 40.0 25.3 8.1 1.1
The Citadel 7 - 11 7 - 21 37.2 43.1 16.8 2.8 0.1
VMI 2 - 16 4 - 24 58.0 33.7 7.6 0.7 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
East Tennessee St. 89.4% 70.5 13.3 4.2 1.4 0.1
Mercer 19.7% 4.7 10.1 3.5 1.3 0.1
Furman 3.1% 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.1 0.1
Samford 2.6% 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.1
Wofford 14.0% 3.7 5.6 3.3 1.3 0.1
Western Carolina
Chattanooga
UNC Greensboro 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1
The Citadel
VMI


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
East Tennessee St. 32.2% 32.2% 0.0% 15   0.5 7.2 17.2 7.0 0.3 67.8 0.0%
Mercer 20.6% 20.6% 0.0% 0.1 3.3 10.0 6.5 0.7 79.4 0.0%
Furman 16.5% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0 1.2 5.7 7.5 2.1 83.5 0.0%
Samford 14.2% 14.2% 0.0% 0.5 4.1 6.4 3.1 85.8 0.0%
Wofford 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0 1.1 4.9 4.1 89.9 0.0%
Western Carolina 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.2 3.0 96.8 0.0%
Chattanooga 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 1.1 98.9 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.1 1.9 98.0 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 96.5% 1.0 3.5 96.5
2nd Round 2.3% 0.0 97.7 2.3
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
East Tennessee St. 32.2% 0.0% 32.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 20.6% 0.0% 20.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 16.5% 0.3% 16.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 14.2% 0.7% 13.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 10.1% 0.9% 9.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 3.2% 2.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 1.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 2.0% 1.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%