Southern
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
87 Furman 52.6%   14   15 - 6 9 - 2 21 - 7 15 - 3 +5.8      +5.9 41 -0.1 175 70.7 108 +4.7 102 +7.0 2
138 UNC Greensboro 15.4%   12 - 9 8 - 2 17 - 12 13 - 5 +1.7      -3.7 290 +5.4 45 64.4 286 +1.5 142 +5.8 3
145 Samford 13.7%   12 - 8 9 - 2 16 - 11 13 - 5 +1.3      +4.0 67 -2.7 254 67.2 209 +0.7 152 +7.0 1
164 Chattanooga 8.8%   9 - 12 4 - 7 14 - 14 9 - 9 +0.2      +3.4 79 -3.2 271 66.4 234 -2.0 210 -5.3 9
215 Wofford 3.5%   10 - 11 5 - 6 14 - 14 9 - 9 -2.3      +1.9 120 -4.1 300 64.0 292 -2.0 209 -3.1 4
223 East Tennessee St. 2.6%   7 - 15 5 - 6 10 - 19 8 - 10 -3.0      -2.7 262 -0.2 183 65.9 247 -7.8 297 -3.8 6
228 Mercer 2.4%   9 - 12 4 - 6 13 - 16 8 - 10 -3.1      -1.7 232 -1.4 224 63.8 295 -3.1 231 -4.2 7
260 Western Carolina 0.8%   9 - 12 5 - 6 12 - 16 8 - 10 -5.4      -1.7 231 -3.7 286 69.6 132 -4.8 258 -3.6 5
301 The Citadel 0.2%   8 - 14 4 - 6 10 - 20 6 - 12 -7.7      -3.7 287 -4.1 298 70.4 113 -6.7 288 -4.8 8
335 VMI 0.0%   2 - 18 0 - 10 4 - 24 2 - 16 -10.5      -3.3 276 -7.2 351 68.9 161 -14.6 351 -19.3 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Furman 1.3 78.1 18.1 3.8 0.0 0.0
UNC Greensboro 2.3 18.7 37.5 42.0 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Samford 2.0 30.0 39.8 29.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Chattanooga 5.3 0.1 2.5 38.2 22.8 15.6 10.7 7.0 3.1 0.0
Wofford 5.2 0.0 0.1 2.7 38.2 23.0 15.6 11.1 6.6 2.7 0.0
East Tennessee St. 5.7 0.2 2.2 22.2 25.1 21.7 16.3 8.8 3.6 0.0
Mercer 5.9 0.0 0.1 1.4 22.3 20.6 18.4 17.2 12.9 7.1 0.0
Western Carolina 6.4 0.0 0.7 15.1 17.2 17.8 20.0 21.2 8.0 0.0
The Citadel 7.8 0.0 0.1 3.4 6.0 8.6 13.8 22.7 45.0 0.4
VMI 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 97.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Furman 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 8.7 24.1 39.0 25.9
UNC Greensboro 13 - 5 0.1 0.6 3.2 10.0 20.4 26.9 23.9 12.1 2.8
Samford 13 - 5 0.1 1.0 5.5 16.1 27.1 29.0 16.8 4.6
Chattanooga 9 - 9 0.1 1.1 5.1 15.0 25.7 29.0 18.7 5.3
Wofford 9 - 9 0.7 4.7 15.1 27.0 29.0 17.7 5.3 0.6
East Tennessee St. 8 - 10 0.8 6.9 22.6 32.3 24.3 10.5 2.4 0.2
Mercer 8 - 10 0.3 2.8 11.0 23.5 28.9 21.5 9.4 2.4 0.2
Western Carolina 8 - 10 3.2 16.3 30.3 28.7 15.6 4.9 0.9 0.1
The Citadel 6 - 12 5.6 21.8 31.8 24.4 11.8 3.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
VMI 2 - 16 16.6 30.8 28.2 16.2 6.3 1.6 0.3 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Furman 78.1% 55.8 19.3 2.9 0.0
UNC Greensboro 18.7% 6.5 9.3 2.9 0.0
Samford 30.0% 13.9 13.2 2.9 0.0
Chattanooga
Wofford 0.0% 0.0 0.0
East Tennessee St.
Mercer 0.0% 0.0
Western Carolina
The Citadel
VMI


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Furman 52.6% 52.6% 0.0% 14   0.0 1.3 10.8 25.2 14.3 1.0 0.0 47.4 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 15.4% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 3.8 6.7 3.8 0.5 84.6 0.0%
Samford 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 5.5 6.0 1.2 86.3 0.0%
Chattanooga 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.9 91.2 0.0%
Wofford 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 96.5 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 2.6 97.4 0.0%
Mercer 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 2.2 97.6 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%
The Citadel 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Furman 52.6% 0.0% 52.6% 10.2% 2.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 15.4% 0.1% 15.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 13.7% 0.2% 13.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 8.8% 3.2% 7.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 3.5% 1.5% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 2.6% 2.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 2.4% 1.8% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 95.9% 1.0 4.1 95.9 0.0
2nd Round 13.0% 0.1 87.0 13.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.2% 0.0 96.8 3.2
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0