Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
132 East Tennessee St. 32.8%   15   14 - 7 8 - 2 +1.8      +1.8 120 0.0 159 64.9 283 -0.5 173 +1.8 1
150 Mercer 24.6%   12 - 8 7 - 3 +0.7      +2.7 104 -2.0 244 74.8 39 +1.5 140 -0.8 3
163 Furman 19.3%   13 - 7 7 - 3 -0.4      -0.2 170 -0.1 164 65.8 260 +0.2 160 -1.9 4
202 Wofford 12.1%   13 - 8 7 - 3 -2.6      +0.9 141 -3.5 280 68.4 193 -0.1 166 +1.1 2
229 Samford 6.0%   9 - 12 4 - 6 -3.8      +0.3 154 -4.1 295 67.9 210 -4.6 232 -6.9 7
276 Chattanooga 2.0%   6 - 14 3 - 7 -6.5      -3.2 256 -3.3 277 66.5 238 -8.8 302 -8.4 9
277 Western Carolina 2.4%   6 - 13 4 - 6 -6.5      -0.8 192 -5.7 327 72.5 85 -6.5 269 -6.5 6
312 UNC Greensboro 0.6%   6 - 15 4 - 6 -9.0      -2.1 226 -7.0 347 68.0 206 -9.0 307 -7.6 8
345 The Citadel 0.2%   5 - 15 5 - 5 -11.7      -5.7 319 -6.1 339 62.5 335 -11.7 338 -5.8 5
356 VMI 0.0%   3 - 17 1 - 9 -14.4      -5.8 322 -8.6 359 67.3 221 -15.1 353 -18.8 10


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 31 150 Mercer 95 356 VMI 81   
Sat, Jan 31 345 The Citadel 71 312 UNC Greensboro 66   
Sun, Feb 1 132 East Tennessee St. 86 202 Wofford 72   
Sun, Feb 1 229 Samford 88 277 Western Carolina 74   
Sun, Feb 1 276 Chattanooga 70 163 Furman 75   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Feb 4 132 East Tennessee St. 74 163 Furman 69 69%   
Wed, Feb 4 312 UNC Greensboro 81 277 Western Carolina 80 52%   
Wed, Feb 4 356 VMI 72 202 Wofford 81 80%   
Thu, Feb 5 276 Chattanooga 76 150 Mercer 80 66%   
Thu, Feb 5 229 Samford 78 345 The Citadel 67 85%   
Sat, Feb 7 150 Mercer 82 229 Samford 81 56%   
Sat, Feb 7 277 Western Carolina 77 202 Wofford 84 75%   
Sat, Feb 7 276 Chattanooga 74 345 The Citadel 66 78%   
Sat, Feb 7 132 East Tennessee St. 80 356 VMI 67 89%   
Sun, Feb 8 163 Furman 80 312 UNC Greensboro 69 86%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
East Tennessee St. 1.5 66.6 19.1 9.3 4.7 0.3 0.1
Mercer 2.3 29.9 32.0 21.9 13.0 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Furman 2.7 18.2 24.7 25.6 28.1 2.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Wofford 2.6 18.7 30.6 28.9 19.0 2.3 0.4 0.1
Samford 5.5 0.1 0.9 3.2 10.4 45.3 23.0 10.5 4.9 1.8 0.0
Chattanooga 6.9 0.1 0.3 2.3 15.8 23.0 25.8 17.8 14.8 0.3
Western Carolina 6.1 0.0 0.5 2.0 7.0 29.1 25.8 17.9 11.4 6.3 0.1
UNC Greensboro 7.2 0.1 0.2 1.8 12.6 16.7 21.5 26.7 20.0 0.4
The Citadel 7.3 0.1 0.2 1.5 10.8 14.5 21.6 28.1 23.1 0.1
VMI 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.9 96.2

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
East Tennessee St. 14 - 4 20 - 9 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.3 13.0 24.1 30.2 20.0 7.1
Mercer 12 - 6 17 - 11 0.0 0.4 1.9 6.5 15.1 23.5 27.1 19.0 6.4
Furman 12 - 6 18 - 10 0.0 0.4 3.1 11.2 22.7 28.5 22.7 9.6 1.8
Wofford 12 - 6 18 - 11 0.0 0.3 2.0 7.8 19.5 28.4 26.6 13.0 2.3
Samford 9 - 9 14 - 15 0.0 0.7 4.3 13.8 25.9 29.0 18.6 6.9 0.8
Chattanooga 7 - 11 10 - 18 0.2 1.8 7.7 20.4 28.8 25.1 12.3 3.3 0.5
Western Carolina 8 - 10 10 - 17 0.5 3.1 11.5 21.5 27.1 20.9 11.1 3.8 0.5
UNC Greensboro 7 - 11 9 - 20 2.6 13.4 26.4 27.1 19.2 8.3 2.6 0.4 0.0
The Citadel 7 - 11 7 - 21 15.8 30.5 28.6 16.6 6.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0
VMI 2 - 16 4 - 24 25.0 35.9 24.6 10.3 3.3 0.7 0.2

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
East Tennessee St. 66.6% 45.5 15.9 4.5 0.7 0.0
Mercer 29.9% 13.2 11.8 4.3 0.7 0.0
Furman 18.2% 7.5 7.0 3.0 0.7 0.0
Wofford 18.7% 7.0 7.4 3.6 0.7 0.0
Samford 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chattanooga
Western Carolina 0.0% 0.0 0.0
UNC Greensboro
The Citadel
VMI


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
East Tennessee St. 32.8% 32.8% 0.0% 15   0.1 1.8 9.1 16.4 5.3 0.2 67.2 0.0%
Mercer 24.6% 24.6% 0.0% 0.0 1.1 6.7 11.9 4.7 0.2 75.4 0.0%
Furman 19.3% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 2.1 7.9 8.1 1.1 80.7 0.0%
Wofford 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.4 3.0 87.9 0.0%
Samford 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 1.9 3.7 94.0 0.0%
Chattanooga 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.1 1.9 98.0 0.0%
Western Carolina 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.2 2.2 97.6 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6 99.4 0.0%
The Citadel 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 97.0% 1.0 3.0 97.0
2nd Round 3.0% 0.0 97.0 3.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
East Tennessee St. 32.8% 0.0% 32.8% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 24.6% 0.1% 24.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 19.3% 0.1% 19.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 12.1% 0.5% 11.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 6.0% 1.8% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 2.0% 1.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 2.4% 1.8% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%