Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
135 East Tennessee St. 35.3%   15   19 - 9 13 - 4 +1.5      +0.7 150 +0.8 147 65.9 251 -0.4 164 +0.7 1
171 Furman 18.9%   16 - 11 10 - 7 -0.9      -1.6 213 +0.7 151 65.3 266 -1.6 186 -3.8 5
181 Mercer 14.4%   15 - 12 10 - 7 -1.3      +1.4 129 -2.8 259 72.5 76 -1.7 189 -3.8 4
195 Samford 12.5%   15 - 13 10 - 7 -2.0      +0.7 148 -2.7 255 68.0 193 -2.6 211 -3.1 3
229 Wofford 9.6%   17 - 11 11 - 6 -3.9      +0.6 151 -4.5 308 69.1 159 -1.4 183 -1.0 2
244 Western Carolina 5.6%   11 - 15 9 - 8 -4.7      -0.1 166 -4.6 310 70.5 123 -5.2 249 -4.8 7
282 Chattanooga 1.7%   9 - 18 6 - 11 -6.9      -2.9 249 -4.0 293 67.4 217 -8.8 305 -8.4 8
298 UNC Greensboro 1.8%   11 - 17 9 - 8 -8.1      -0.7 181 -7.4 351 68.9 172 -6.6 273 -4.6 6
349 The Citadel 0.1%   6 - 21 6 - 11 -13.4      -6.9 339 -6.5 339 62.5 334 -12.2 340 -8.7 9
359 VMI 0.0%   3 - 24 1 - 16 -16.5      -6.8 337 -9.7 362 67.5 211 -17.0 357 -21.2 10


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Feb 25 135 East Tennessee St. 69 229 Wofford 72   
Wed, Feb 25 181 Mercer 74 244 Western Carolina 78   
Wed, Feb 25 171 Furman 72 349 The Citadel 51   
Thu, Feb 26 195 Samford 80 359 VMI 61   
Thu, Feb 26 282 Chattanooga 80 298 UNC Greensboro 85   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 28 135 East Tennessee St. 76 181 Mercer 77 51%   
Sat, Feb 28 171 Furman 75 244 Western Carolina 74 53%   
Sat, Feb 28 195 Samford 84 298 UNC Greensboro 74 81%   
Sat, Feb 28 349 The Citadel 67 229 Wofford 80 88%   
Sat, Feb 28 282 Chattanooga 81 359 VMI 69 88%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
East Tennessee St. 1.0 100.0
Furman 3.5 6.6 51.3 23.2 18.9
Mercer 3.6 6.1 49.4 23.7 20.8
Samford 3.1 9.6 75.3 9.9 5.3
Wofford 2.0 100.0
Western Carolina 5.3 4.6 23.2 18.9 42.8 10.5
Chattanooga 8.0 98.5 1.5
UNC Greensboro 6.0 4.6 9.9 5.3 42.8 37.4
The Citadel 8.8 22.4 77.6
VMI 10.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
East Tennessee St. 13 - 5 19 - 10 50.9 49.1
Furman 11 - 7 17 - 11 46.7 53.3
Mercer 11 - 7 16 - 12 49.1 50.9
Samford 11 - 7 16 - 13 19.8 80.2
Wofford 12 - 6 18 - 11 11.9 88.1
Western Carolina 9 - 9 11 - 16 53.3 46.7
Chattanooga 7 - 11 10 - 18 12.0 88.0
UNC Greensboro 9 - 9 11 - 18 80.2 19.8
The Citadel 6 - 12 6 - 22 88.1 11.9
VMI 1 - 17 3 - 25 88.0 12.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
East Tennessee St. 100.0% 100.0
Furman
Mercer
Samford
Wofford
Western Carolina
Chattanooga
UNC Greensboro
The Citadel
VMI


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
East Tennessee St. 35.3% 35.3% 0.0% 15   0.4 7.8 20.3 6.7 0.1 64.7 0.0%
Furman 18.9% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 7.4 9.1 1.7 81.1 0.0%
Mercer 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 5.0 7.8 1.2 85.6 0.0%
Samford 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.2 3.3 7.2 1.8 87.5 0.0%
Wofford 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0 1.1 6.1 2.4 90.4 0.0%
Western Carolina 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.3 5.4 94.4 0.0%
Chattanooga 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 1.7 98.3 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 1.8 98.2 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 100.0 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 96.2% 1.0 3.8 96.2
2nd Round 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
East Tennessee St. 35.3% 0.0% 35.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 18.9% 0.2% 18.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 14.4% 0.1% 14.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 12.5% 0.2% 12.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 9.6% 0.3% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 5.6% 4.1% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 1.7% 1.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 1.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%