Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
131 East Tennessee St. 33.8%   15   8 - 5 2 - 0 20 - 9 14 - 4 +1.8      +1.7 124 +0.1 160 65.7 281 -1.4 192 +8.5 2
156 Furman 21.4%   7 - 5 1 - 1 18 - 10 12 - 6 -0.1      +0.4 155 -0.5 186 66.1 273 +1.3 148 -7.0 6
173 Mercer 16.8%   5 - 7 0 - 2 16 - 12 11 - 7 -1.1      -0.1 172 -0.9 200 74.3 54 +0.5 158 -11.4 8
221 Wofford 9.3%   8 - 5 2 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 7 -3.4      -0.7 185 -2.8 256 68.4 211 +0.2 160 +8.6 1
227 Samford 8.2%   6 - 7 1 - 1 15 - 14 10 - 8 -3.6      -0.6 184 -3.0 267 68.4 212 -2.6 212 -5.7 5
262 Chattanooga 3.7%   3 - 9 0 - 2 10 - 18 7 - 11 -5.9      -1.8 208 -4.1 305 66.3 265 -10.2 320 -21.3 10
279 UNC Greensboro 3.5%   4 - 9 2 - 0 11 - 18 9 - 9 -6.6      -1.5 206 -5.1 328 67.6 231 -7.9 286 +7.6 3
285 Western Carolina 2.7%   3 - 8 1 - 1 10 - 17 8 - 10 -7.0      -4.2 288 -2.8 259 74.5 51 -5.2 249 -1.8 4
335 VMI 0.6%   3 - 9 1 - 1 8 - 20 6 - 12 -10.8      -4.2 289 -6.6 346 69.3 187 -11.3 324 -7.8 7
358 The Citadel 0.1%   0 - 12 0 - 2 3 - 25 3 - 15 -14.6      -4.9 305 -9.7 364 62.9 337 -20.8 362 -19.6 9




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 31 156 Furman 74 173 Mercer 72   
Wed, Dec 31 285 Western Carolina 74 221 Wofford 79   
Thu, Jan 1 262 Chattanooga 72 279 UNC Greensboro 77   
Thu, Jan 1 227 Samford 78 335 VMI 58   
Sat, Jan 3 131 East Tennessee St. 77 173 Mercer 71   
Sat, Jan 3 156 Furman 77 285 Western Carolina 80   
Sat, Jan 3 227 Samford 82 279 UNC Greensboro 89   
Sat, Jan 3 262 Chattanooga 71 335 VMI 79   
Sat, Jan 3 358 The Citadel 86 221 Wofford 95   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Jan 7 279 UNC Greensboro 72 221 Wofford 78 73%   
Wed, Jan 7 227 Samford 80 285 Western Carolina 73 73%   
Wed, Jan 7 262 Chattanooga 71 156 Furman 74 61%   
Wed, Jan 7 131 East Tennessee St. 82 335 VMI 66 92%   
Wed, Jan 7 173 Mercer 84 358 The Citadel 67 93%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
East Tennessee St. 1.8 60.8 19.4 9.7 5.2 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1
Furman 3.0 22.3 25.1 19.5 13.5 8.9 5.4 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.0
Mercer 3.6 13.1 21.5 20.0 16.5 11.7 7.9 4.9 3.2 1.2 0.2
Wofford 3.7 14.0 18.4 17.3 16.5 13.4 9.9 5.9 3.4 1.1 0.1
Samford 4.5 6.9 12.3 14.8 16.6 16.0 13.7 10.2 6.4 2.6 0.4
Chattanooga 6.5 1.2 3.2 5.5 7.9 11.4 15.0 18.9 21.0 12.7 3.2
UNC Greensboro 5.4 3.7 6.9 10.1 13.2 16.2 17.5 15.6 10.8 5.1 0.8
Western Carolina 6.0 2.0 4.6 7.5 10.6 13.6 16.3 17.3 15.5 10.1 2.5
VMI 8.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.3 7.9 13.3 22.4 35.3 12.5
The Citadel 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.2 8.0 20.3 66.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
East Tennessee St. 14 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.2 7.9 12.4 16.2 18.6 17.7 12.1 6.1 1.4
Furman 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.8 8.2 12.2 16.2 17.7 16.1 11.7 6.5 2.5 0.6
Mercer 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.0 7.0 11.3 15.3 17.0 16.3 13.5 8.0 3.5 0.8
Wofford 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.7 8.5 13.2 15.8 15.8 14.6 11.6 7.3 3.5 1.3 0.4 0.0
Samford 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.8 8.5 12.6 15.6 16.6 15.2 11.1 7.3 3.3 1.2 0.4 0.0
Chattanooga 7 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.9 5.9 10.4 14.3 16.6 16.1 13.4 9.5 5.6 2.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
UNC Greensboro 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.7 8.4 13.0 16.4 17.3 14.4 11.0 6.8 3.7 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Western Carolina 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.3 7.8 12.1 14.8 15.9 15.2 11.8 8.2 4.6 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
VMI 6 - 12 0.9 4.2 10.3 16.0 18.5 17.9 13.5 9.2 5.2 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 3 - 15 5.8 14.9 21.3 20.6 16.0 11.1 5.7 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
East Tennessee St. 60.8% 46.5 11.5 2.5 0.3 0.0
Furman 22.3% 12.9 7.1 2.0 0.3 0.0
Mercer 13.1% 6.3 4.9 1.6 0.2 0.0
Wofford 14.0% 7.9 4.4 1.3 0.3 0.0
Samford 6.9% 3.4 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
Chattanooga 1.2% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
UNC Greensboro 3.7% 1.6 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Western Carolina 2.0% 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
VMI 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
East Tennessee St. 33.8% 33.8% 0.0% 15   0.2 1.7 7.5 14.1 8.8 1.5 66.2 0.0%
Furman 21.4% 21.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 4.1 8.9 6.4 1.2 78.6 0.0%
Mercer 16.8% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.3 5.7 1.8 83.2 0.0%
Wofford 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.4 2.3 90.7 0.0%
Samford 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.7 2.7 91.8 0.0%
Chattanooga 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.0 96.3 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.8 96.5 0.0%
Western Carolina 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 97.3 0.0%
VMI 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
East Tennessee St. 33.8% 0.2% 33.7% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 21.4% 0.2% 21.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 16.8% 0.6% 16.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 9.3% 0.7% 9.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 8.2% 1.1% 7.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 3.7% 2.4% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 3.5% 2.1% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 2.7% 1.5% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 96.1% 1.0 3.9 96.1
2nd Round 3.4% 0.0 96.6 3.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0