Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
141 East Tennessee St. 34.9%   15   19 - 10 13 - 5 +1.2      +0.7 146 +0.4 157 65.5 261 -0.8 173 -0.1 1
177 Mercer 18.8%   16 - 12 11 - 7 -1.1      +1.8 121 -2.9 262 72.2 85 -1.2 182 -3.0 4
183 Furman 14.9%   16 - 12 10 - 8 -1.7      -1.9 220 +0.2 163 65.0 272 -2.1 194 -4.4 6
193 Samford 15.9%   16 - 13 11 - 7 -2.0      +0.4 153 -2.4 250 68.3 185 -2.5 208 -2.8 3
229 Western Carolina 6.6%   12 - 15 10 - 8 -3.9      +0.5 150 -4.3 301 70.3 128 -4.7 241 -4.1 5
242 Wofford 6.0%   17 - 12 11 - 7 -4.5      +0.5 149 -5.0 312 69.2 157 -2.4 202 -2.5 2
286 Chattanooga 1.5%   10 - 18 7 - 11 -7.1      -2.5 241 -4.6 309 67.1 218 -8.6 305 -8.2 9
299 UNC Greensboro 1.5%   11 - 18 9 - 9 -8.2      -1.0 190 -7.2 350 69.2 158 -6.9 277 -5.0 7
345 The Citadel 0.1%   7 - 21 7 - 11 -12.8      -6.3 329 -6.4 341 62.5 334 -10.9 332 -7.5 8
358 VMI 0.0%   3 - 25 1 - 17 -16.2      -6.1 323 -10.1 363 67.2 215 -17.0 357 -21.3 10


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Feb 25 141 East Tennessee St. 69 242 Wofford 72   
Wed, Feb 25 177 Mercer 74 229 Western Carolina 78   
Wed, Feb 25 183 Furman 72 345 The Citadel 51   
Thu, Feb 26 193 Samford 80 358 VMI 61   
Thu, Feb 26 286 Chattanooga 80 299 UNC Greensboro 85   
Sat, Feb 28 345 The Citadel 93 242 Wofford 90   
Sat, Feb 28 183 Furman 67 229 Western Carolina 86   
Sat, Feb 28 141 East Tennessee St. 76 177 Mercer 82   
Sat, Feb 28 193 Samford 87 299 UNC Greensboro 78   
Sat, Feb 28 286 Chattanooga 86 358 VMI 79   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
East Tennessee St. 1.0 100.0
Mercer 2.0 100.0
Furman 5.0 100.0
Samford 2.0 100.0
Western Carolina 5.0 100.0
Wofford 2.0 100.0
Chattanooga 8.3 70.3 29.7
UNC Greensboro 5.5 77.3 22.7
The Citadel 8.7 29.7 70.3
VMI 10.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
East Tennessee St. 13 - 5 19 - 10 100.0
Mercer 11 - 7 17 - 12 100.0
Furman 10 - 8 17 - 12 100.0
Samford 11 - 7 16 - 14 100.0
Western Carolina 10 - 8 12 - 16 100.0
Wofford 11 - 7 17 - 12 100.0
Chattanooga 8 - 11 11 - 18 29.7 70.3
UNC Greensboro 10 - 9 12 - 18 22.7 77.3
The Citadel 7 - 12 7 - 22 70.3 29.7
VMI 1 - 18 3 - 26 77.3 22.7

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
East Tennessee St. 100.0% 100.0
Mercer
Furman
Samford
Western Carolina
Wofford
Chattanooga
UNC Greensboro
The Citadel
VMI


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
East Tennessee St. 34.9% 34.9% 0.0% 15   0.1 5.5 21.1 8.1 0.1 65.1 0.0%
Mercer 18.8% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0 1.1 9.4 8.0 0.4 81.3 0.0%
Furman 14.9% 14.9% 0.0% 0.2 4.4 9.0 1.3 85.1 0.0%
Samford 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% 0.2 4.3 9.5 1.8 84.1 0.0%
Western Carolina 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 1.5 5.0 93.5 0.0%
Wofford 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.3 3.1 2.6 94.1 0.0%
Chattanooga 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 1.5 98.5 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 1.5 98.5 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 97.1% 1.0 2.9 97.1
2nd Round 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
East Tennessee St. 34.9% 0.0% 34.9% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 18.8% 0.0% 18.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 14.9% 0.1% 14.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 15.9% 0.1% 15.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 6.6% 2.4% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 6.0% 0.5% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 1.5% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 1.5% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%