Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
164 East Tennessee St. 0.0%   21 - 11 13 - 5 0.0      +0.3 157 -0.2 181 65.3 263 -1.0 177 -0.2 1
180 Furman 100.0%   15   19 - 12 10 - 8 -1.2      -1.0 194 -0.2 177 65.0 273 -1.1 183 -4.7 6
188 Mercer 0.0%   16 - 13 11 - 7 -1.6      +1.4 130 -3.0 263 71.8 91 -2.2 201 -3.2 4
206 Samford 0.0%   16 - 14 11 - 7 -2.3      +0.5 151 -2.8 256 68.5 177 -3.1 220 -3.1 3
225 Western Carolina 0.0%   13 - 16 10 - 8 -3.7      +0.1 162 -3.7 288 69.8 139 -4.6 240 -4.4 5
243 Wofford 0.0%   17 - 13 11 - 7 -4.9      0.0 164 -4.9 310 69.2 155 -3.3 224 -2.7 2
295 Chattanooga 0.0%   10 - 19 7 - 11 -7.8      -2.2 228 -5.5 322 67.3 213 -9.4 311 -8.4 9
297 UNC Greensboro 0.0%   13 - 19 9 - 9 -8.1      -1.0 191 -7.1 345 68.9 162 -6.8 272 -5.3 7
339 The Citadel 0.0%   8 - 22 7 - 11 -12.5      -5.0 296 -7.5 350 62.4 333 -10.5 325 -7.8 8
359 VMI 0.0%   3 - 26 1 - 17 -16.9      -6.6 330 -10.2 363 67.2 215 -17.4 357 -21.4 10


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Mar 9 164 East Tennessee St. 61 180 Furman 76   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
East Tennessee St. 1.0 100.0
Wofford 2.0 100.0
Mercer 2.0 100.0
Samford 2.0 100.0
Western Carolina 5.0 100.0
Furman 5.0 100.0
UNC Greensboro 7.0 100.0
The Citadel 8.0 100.0
Chattanooga 8.0 100.0
VMI 10.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
East Tennessee St. 13 - 5 21 - 11 100.0
Wofford 11 - 7 17 - 13 100.0
Mercer 11 - 7 16 - 13 100.0
Samford 11 - 7 16 - 14 100.0
Western Carolina 10 - 8 13 - 16 100.0
Furman 10 - 8 19 - 12 100.0
UNC Greensboro 9 - 9 13 - 19 100.0
The Citadel 7 - 11 8 - 22 100.0
Chattanooga 7 - 11 10 - 19 100.0
VMI 1 - 17 3 - 26 100.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
East Tennessee St. 100.0% 100.0
Wofford
Mercer
Samford
Western Carolina
Furman
UNC Greensboro
The Citadel
Chattanooga
VMI


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
East Tennessee St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Furman 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 15   0.1 8.6 53.5 37.8
Mercer 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Samford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Wofford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Chattanooga 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 96.3% 1.0 3.7 96.3
2nd Round 1.1% 0.0 99.0 1.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
East Tennessee St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 100.0% 8.7% 96.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%