Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
141 East Tennessee St. 34.5%   15   19 - 10 13 - 5 +1.2      +0.7 145 +0.4 156 65.5 260 -0.8 171 -0.1 1
177 Mercer 16.3%   16 - 12 11 - 7 -1.1      +1.8 121 -2.9 261 72.2 84 -1.2 181 -3.0 4
183 Furman 15.5%   16 - 12 10 - 8 -1.7      -1.9 219 +0.2 164 65.0 272 -2.1 195 -4.4 6
191 Samford 14.1%   16 - 13 11 - 7 -2.0      +0.4 150 -2.4 250 68.3 185 -2.5 208 -2.8 3
230 Western Carolina 6.7%   12 - 15 10 - 8 -3.9      +0.5 149 -4.4 301 70.3 129 -4.7 242 -4.1 5
244 Wofford 9.6%   17 - 12 11 - 7 -4.4      +0.5 148 -5.0 312 69.2 159 -2.3 202 -2.5 2
286 Chattanooga 1.6%   10 - 18 7 - 11 -7.1      -2.5 240 -4.6 309 67.1 218 -8.6 305 -8.2 9
299 UNC Greensboro 1.8%   11 - 18 9 - 9 -8.2      -1.0 188 -7.2 350 69.2 160 -6.9 276 -5.0 7
345 The Citadel 0.0%   7 - 21 7 - 11 -12.8      -6.4 329 -6.4 337 62.5 334 -10.9 331 -7.5 8
358 VMI 0.0%   3 - 25 1 - 17 -16.2      -6.1 324 -10.1 363 67.2 215 -17.0 357 -21.3 10


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Feb 26 191 Samford 80 358 VMI 61   
Thu, Feb 26 286 Chattanooga 80 299 UNC Greensboro 85   
Sat, Feb 28 345 The Citadel 93 244 Wofford 90   
Sat, Feb 28 183 Furman 67 230 Western Carolina 86   
Sat, Feb 28 141 East Tennessee St. 76 177 Mercer 82   
Sat, Feb 28 191 Samford 87 299 UNC Greensboro 78   
Sat, Feb 28 286 Chattanooga 86 358 VMI 79   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Mar 6 286 Chattanooga 74 345 The Citadel 68 71%   
Fri, Mar 6 299 UNC Greensboro 83 358 VMI 75 78%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
East Tennessee St. 1.0 100.0
Mercer 2.0 100.0
Furman 5.0 100.0
Samford 2.0 100.0
Western Carolina 5.0 100.0
Wofford 2.0 100.0
Chattanooga 8.3 70.1 29.9
UNC Greensboro 5.4 77.7 22.3
The Citadel 8.7 29.9 70.1
VMI 10.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
East Tennessee St. 13 - 5 19 - 10 100.0
Mercer 11 - 7 17 - 12 100.0
Furman 10 - 8 17 - 12 100.0
Samford 11 - 7 16 - 14 100.0
Western Carolina 10 - 8 12 - 16 100.0
Wofford 11 - 7 17 - 12 100.0
Chattanooga 8 - 11 11 - 18 29.9 70.1
UNC Greensboro 10 - 9 12 - 18 22.3 77.7
The Citadel 7 - 12 7 - 22 70.1 29.9
VMI 1 - 18 3 - 26 77.7 22.3

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
East Tennessee St. 100.0% 100.0
Mercer
Furman
Samford
Western Carolina
Wofford
Chattanooga
UNC Greensboro
The Citadel
VMI


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
East Tennessee St. 34.5% 34.5% 0.0% 15   0.1 5.3 21.4 7.6 0.1 65.5 0.0%
Mercer 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 8.5 6.6 0.2 83.7 0.0%
Furman 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 4.7 9.4 1.1 84.6 0.0%
Samford 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 0.2 4.8 8.3 0.8 86.0 0.0%
Western Carolina 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.5 6.2 93.3 0.0%
Wofford 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 0.3 4.0 5.3 90.4 0.0%
Chattanooga 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 1.6 98.4 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 1.8 98.2 0.0%
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 95.8% 1.0 4.2 95.8
2nd Round 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
East Tennessee St. 34.5% 0.0% 34.5% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 16.3% 0.0% 16.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 15.5% 0.0% 15.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 14.1% 0.0% 14.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 6.7% 3.9% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 9.6% 1.6% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 1.6% 1.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 1.8% 1.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%