Southern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
103 Furman 25.4%   14   3 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 11 12 - 6 +4.5      +5.2 48 -0.7 198 68.8 196 +5.5 98 0.0 1
111 Chattanooga 24.7%   4 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 9 12 - 6 +4.1      +3.2 91 +0.9 140 56.6 356 +9.2 68 0.0 1
122 Wofford 17.7%   2 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 +2.8      +2.7 100 +0.1 171 64.7 288 +1.7 156 0.0 1
124 East Tennessee St. 18.1%   4 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 +2.8      +1.1 130 +1.6 113 64.5 293 +8.9 71 0.0 1
171 UNC Greensboro 7.1%   5 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 -0.3      -1.7 220 +1.3 123 59.3 351 +2.4 139 0.0 1
195 Mercer 4.8%   1 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 9 -1.6      -0.2 176 -1.4 228 67.2 236 -6.2 262 0.0 1
239 Samford 2.2%   3 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 14 7 - 11 -3.9      -0.2 177 -3.8 289 79.3 22 +9.6 64 0.0 1
240 The Citadel 2.4%   1 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 14 7 - 11 -4.0      +0.8 149 -4.8 308 73.7 80 -1.5 204 0.0 1
257 VMI 1.4%   1 - 4 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 12 -5.3      -0.8 201 -4.4 302 65.1 280 -13.6 333 0.0 1
302 Western Carolina 0.3%   3 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 20 5 - 13 -7.9      -2.1 242 -5.8 327 73.6 81 -2.3 211 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Furman 2.8 33.3 21.4 15.1 12.5 8.1 4.6 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.3
Chattanooga 2.9 30.1 21.4 16.8 11.8 8.3 5.2 3.6 1.8 0.7 0.3
Wofford 3.4 21.2 19.4 18.0 13.9 10.1 7.3 4.6 3.2 1.7 0.6
East Tennessee St. 3.5 21.1 20.1 16.4 14.1 10.2 8.3 4.5 3.2 1.6 0.7
UNC Greensboro 4.9 6.8 9.7 13.4 15.1 15.4 12.2 12.0 8.8 4.3 2.3
Mercer 5.5 5.2 7.4 9.8 12.2 13.8 15.0 13.1 10.5 8.8 4.3
Samford 6.7 2.4 3.4 5.6 7.7 10.5 12.7 16.4 16.9 14.1 10.3
The Citadel 6.7 2.1 4.0 6.4 7.7 11.0 12.5 14.0 15.7 15.2 11.6
VMI 7.3 0.6 2.0 3.4 5.9 8.2 12.2 14.6 18.0 18.8 16.4
Western Carolina 8.4 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 4.6 6.7 11.5 15.5 24.5 33.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Furman 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.3 2.3 3.7 7.4 10.3 11.1 13.5 14.6 12.9 10.7 7.3 3.1 1.0
Chattanooga 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 3.2 4.4 7.6 10.1 12.0 14.4 14.4 12.5 10.2 5.6 2.5 0.9
Wofford 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.8 3.6 6.9 8.7 11.4 13.6 14.6 14.1 9.9 5.6 4.1 1.9 0.3
East Tennessee St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 2.6 4.7 6.5 9.4 12.1 13.7 13.4 12.8 9.8 7.1 3.7 1.8 0.3
UNC Greensboro 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.7 4.1 8.0 9.6 12.3 13.3 13.5 11.7 9.9 6.3 3.9 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.1
Mercer 9 - 9 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.4 5.1 6.8 8.7 13.0 12.9 11.9 11.5 10.5 6.9 4.3 3.1 1.1 0.4 0.2
Samford 7 - 11 0.2 1.2 3.2 5.9 9.1 11.4 13.8 12.9 11.6 10.2 7.9 5.8 3.6 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1
The Citadel 7 - 11 0.5 1.5 3.9 5.9 8.7 11.9 12.2 12.6 11.0 10.3 8.1 5.3 4.1 2.0 1.5 0.4 0.2 0.1
VMI 6 - 12 0.6 2.4 5.2 8.2 11.9 13.3 14.0 12.6 11.9 7.8 5.8 3.2 2.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Western Carolina 5 - 13 1.8 5.3 11.6 14.4 16.1 16.2 11.3 9.5 6.9 3.6 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Furman 33.3% 23.3 8.0 1.6 0.3 0.0
Chattanooga 30.1% 20.7 7.4 1.6 0.3 0.0
Wofford 21.2% 13.9 5.5 1.4 0.3 0.0
East Tennessee St. 21.1% 13.7 5.6 1.3 0.4 0.0
UNC Greensboro 6.8% 3.7 2.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
Mercer 5.2% 2.8 1.7 0.6 0.2
Samford 2.4% 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
The Citadel 2.1% 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.1
VMI 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Western Carolina 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Furman 25.4% 23.9% 1.5% 14   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.9 1.2 3.2 7.6 7.1 3.5 1.2 0.2 74.6 2.0%
Chattanooga 24.7% 23.2% 1.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 2.4 7.4 7.4 4.1 1.1 0.1 75.3 2.0%
Wofford 17.7% 17.6% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 2.4 5.0 4.7 3.8 0.8 82.3 0.2%
East Tennessee St. 18.1% 17.3% 0.8% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 4.3 6.3 4.2 1.3 0.3 81.9 1.0%
UNC Greensboro 7.1% 7.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.5 2.2 2.1 0.7 92.9 0.1%
Mercer 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.9 2.1 0.9 95.2 0.0%
Samford 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.3 97.8 0.0%
The Citadel 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.8 97.6 0.0%
VMI 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 1.1 98.6 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Furman 25.4% 1.0% 24.9% 5.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Chattanooga 24.7% 1.1% 24.1% 4.9% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 17.7% 0.3% 17.5% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 18.1% 0.7% 17.7% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 7.1% 0.4% 7.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 4.8% 0.5% 4.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 2.2% 0.1% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 2.4% 0.4% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 1.4% 0.7% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 95.9 4.0 0.1
1st Round 99.2% 1.0 0.8 96.6 2.6
2nd Round 16.2% 0.2 83.8 16.1 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 4.0% 0.0 96.0 4.0
Elite Eight 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0