Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
132 East Tennessee St. 36.8%   14   19 - 8 13 - 3 +2.0      +1.1 138 +0.8 149 65.8 251 +0.5 151 +2.6 1
177 Furman 14.9%   15 - 11 9 - 7 -1.0      -1.7 222 +0.6 154 65.6 258 -1.6 184 -3.9 5
179 Mercer 17.1%   15 - 11 10 - 6 -1.1      +1.6 125 -2.6 253 72.9 69 -1.0 175 -3.1 4
191 Samford 14.1%   14 - 13 9 - 7 -1.9      +0.8 145 -2.7 257 68.2 191 -2.5 208 -3.0 3
238 Wofford 8.2%   16 - 11 10 - 6 -4.3      +0.5 150 -4.8 310 69.2 162 -2.1 201 -2.2 2
250 Western Carolina 4.8%   10 - 15 8 - 8 -4.9      -0.1 166 -4.8 309 70.9 117 -5.8 253 -5.6 7
275 Chattanooga 2.2%   9 - 17 6 - 10 -6.3      -2.4 235 -4.0 290 66.6 236 -8.1 294 -7.3 8
301 UNC Greensboro 1.7%   10 - 17 8 - 8 -8.3      -0.6 177 -7.7 355 68.1 194 -7.2 278 -5.5 6
348 The Citadel 0.0%   6 - 20 6 - 10 -13.2      -6.8 336 -6.4 335 62.8 331 -12.1 338 -8.4 9
358 VMI 0.0%   3 - 23 1 - 15 -16.2      -6.6 332 -9.6 362 67.7 204 -16.9 357 -21.1 10


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Feb 21 179 Mercer 89 191 Samford 86   
Sat, Feb 21 177 Furman 76 238 Wofford 67   
Sat, Feb 21 132 East Tennessee St. 87 301 UNC Greensboro 75   
Sat, Feb 21 358 VMI 62 250 Western Carolina 81   
Sat, Feb 21 275 Chattanooga 93 348 The Citadel 72   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Feb 25 179 Mercer 83 250 Western Carolina 82 53%   
Wed, Feb 25 132 East Tennessee St. 80 238 Wofford 71 81%   
Wed, Feb 25 177 Furman 76 348 The Citadel 61 91%   
Thu, Feb 26 275 Chattanooga 80 301 UNC Greensboro 75 68%   
Thu, Feb 26 191 Samford 85 358 VMI 68 94%   
Sat, Feb 28 132 East Tennessee St. 78 179 Mercer 77 50%   
Sat, Feb 28 177 Furman 75 250 Western Carolina 74 53%   
Sat, Feb 28 191 Samford 84 301 UNC Greensboro 74 81%   
Sat, Feb 28 348 The Citadel 68 238 Wofford 79 86%   
Sat, Feb 28 275 Chattanooga 81 358 VMI 68 88%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
East Tennessee St. 1.0 100.0
Furman 3.5 30.2 21.8 20.3 25.9 1.8 0.1
Mercer 2.6 67.6 12.1 12.0 8.3
Samford 2.8 46.8 30.6 14.2 8.0 0.4 0.1
Wofford 2.4 70.7 21.4 4.8 3.1
Western Carolina 5.7 0.3 3.6 11.2 9.8 59.6 15.4
Chattanooga 7.3 14.9 38.2 46.0 1.0
UNC Greensboro 6.3 0.1 1.0 3.0 3.5 45.4 47.0
The Citadel 8.9 0.2 0.5 10.5 88.8
VMI 10.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
East Tennessee St. 14 - 4 20 - 9 10.4 48.6 41.0
Furman 10 - 8 16 - 12 3.6 46.4 50.0
Mercer 11 - 7 16 - 12 24.5 48.6 26.9
Samford 11 - 7 16 - 13 1.0 21.8 77.2
Wofford 11 - 7 17 - 12 10.4 72.2 17.3
Western Carolina 9 - 9 11 - 16 29.1 48.0 22.8
Chattanooga 8 - 10 11 - 17 3.8 34.9 61.3
UNC Greensboro 9 - 9 11 - 18 55.8 38.0 6.3
The Citadel 6 - 12 6 - 22 80.9 18.0 1.1
VMI 1 - 17 3 - 25 84.7 14.8 0.5

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
East Tennessee St. 100.0% 100.0
Furman
Mercer
Samford
Wofford
Western Carolina
Chattanooga
UNC Greensboro
The Citadel
VMI


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
East Tennessee St. 36.8% 36.8% 0.0% 14   0.0 1.5 12.5 18.5 4.3 0.0 63.2 0.0%
Furman 14.9% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 5.8 6.8 1.7 85.1 0.0%
Mercer 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0 1.4 7.3 7.7 0.8 82.9 0.0%
Samford 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 0.3 4.1 7.9 1.9 85.9 0.0%
Wofford 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 3.6 4.2 91.8 0.0%
Western Carolina 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.2 4.6 95.2 0.0%
Chattanooga 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 2.2 97.8 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 1.7 98.3 0.0%
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 95.7% 1.0 4.3 95.7
2nd Round 2.2% 0.0 97.8 2.2
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
East Tennessee St. 36.8% 0.0% 36.8% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 14.9% 0.2% 14.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 17.1% 0.0% 17.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 14.1% 0.4% 14.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 8.2% 1.3% 7.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 4.8% 3.8% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 2.2% 2.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 1.7% 1.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%