Western Carolina
Southern
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.4#260
Expected Predictive Rating-4.8#258
Pace69.6#132
Improvement+0.5#124

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#231
First Shot+1.1#137
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#347
Layup/Dunks+0.6#142
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#307
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#114
Freethrows+1.1#97
Improvement-0.1#215

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#286
First Shot-3.3#287
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#221
Layups/Dunks-5.2#349
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#340
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#12
Freethrows-0.9#256
Improvement+0.6#84
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.0% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 5.8% 12.1% 1.5%
.500 or above in Conference 21.5% 38.7% 9.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.7%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Home) - 40.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 72 - 11
Quad 49 - 512 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 103   @ Georgia L 55-68 13%     0 - 1 -6.0 -14.7 +8.8
  Nov 10, 2022 31   @ Maryland L 51-71 4%     0 - 2 -4.9 -16.0 +12.0
  Nov 18, 2022 339   @ McNeese St. W 88-69 61%     1 - 2 +10.7 +11.7 -0.2
  Nov 19, 2022 357   Lamar W 98-91 OT 83%     2 - 2 -8.5 +8.8 -17.9
  Nov 20, 2022 352   Lindenwood W 90-88 OT 77%     3 - 2 -11.2 +0.5 -12.1
  Nov 26, 2022 188   @ UNC Asheville L 61-73 25%     3 - 3 -10.4 -13.9 +4.2
  Nov 30, 2022 192   Gardner-Webb L 55-71 45%     3 - 4 -19.9 -7.8 -14.5
  Dec 03, 2022 306   South Carolina Upstate L 64-79 70%     3 - 5 -25.7 -12.1 -13.8
  Dec 07, 2022 123   @ Davidson L 64-72 16%     3 - 6 -2.6 -7.5 +5.0
  Dec 17, 2022 303   @ Tennessee Tech W 75-65 49%     4 - 6 +5.0 +3.3 +2.3
  Dec 29, 2022 138   UNC Greensboro L 47-72 34%     4 - 7 0 - 1 -26.0 -20.0 -7.0
  Dec 31, 2022 87   Furman W 79-67 21%     5 - 7 1 - 1 +15.0 +10.7 +5.2
  Jan 04, 2023 223   @ East Tennessee St. W 71-60 31%     6 - 7 2 - 1 +10.8 +4.3 +7.2
  Jan 07, 2023 228   Mercer W 73-45 52%     7 - 7 3 - 1 +22.1 +0.0 +23.1
  Jan 11, 2023 164   @ Chattanooga L 76-95 22%     7 - 8 3 - 2 -16.1 +4.0 -20.8
  Jan 14, 2023 301   @ The Citadel L 61-65 49%     7 - 9 3 - 3 -9.0 -9.8 +0.4
  Jan 18, 2023 215   Wofford W 76-71 49%     8 - 9 4 - 3 +0.0 +5.3 -4.8
  Jan 21, 2023 145   @ Samford L 65-74 19%     8 - 10 4 - 4 -4.9 -3.7 -2.0
  Jan 25, 2023 301   The Citadel L 70-81 69%     8 - 11 4 - 5 -21.5 -6.2 -15.6
  Jan 28, 2023 335   @ VMI W 71-65 59%     9 - 11 5 - 5 -1.7 -6.9 +5.3
  Feb 01, 2023 145   Samford L 77-85 35%     9 - 12 5 - 6 -9.4 -1.8 -7.4
  Feb 04, 2023 164   Chattanooga L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 08, 2023 215   @ Wofford L 69-75 28%    
  Feb 11, 2023 87   @ Furman L 69-83 9%    
  Feb 15, 2023 223   East Tennessee St. W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 18, 2023 228   @ Mercer L 67-72 31%    
  Feb 22, 2023 138   @ UNC Greensboro L 60-70 17%    
  Feb 25, 2023 335   VMI W 78-70 78%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.7 8.5 4.3 0.6 0.0 15.1 4th
5th 0.5 10.2 6.3 0.3 17.2 5th
6th 0.0 4.9 12.0 0.8 0.0 17.8 6th
7th 1.3 14.3 4.4 0.0 20.0 7th
8th 0.9 10.0 9.9 0.4 21.2 8th
9th 2.3 5.0 0.8 0.0 8.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 3.2 16.3 30.3 28.7 15.6 4.9 0.9 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 3.7% 3.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.8
10-8 4.9% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.8
9-9 15.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 15.4
8-10 28.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 28.5
7-11 30.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 30.1
6-12 16.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 16.3
5-13 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 3.7% 15.0 3.7
Lose Out 3.2% 0.1% 16.0 0.1