Western Carolina
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.4#297
Expected Predictive Rating-5.9#252
Pace74.5#55
Improvement+0.2#171

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#296
First Shot-3.6#278
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#247
Layup/Dunks-2.5#270
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#96
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#286
Freethrows+0.7#130
Improvement+0.0#179

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#266
First Shot-4.3#315
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#81
Layups/Dunks+2.5#90
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#310
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#325
Freethrows-0.6#218
Improvement+0.1#177
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.2 15.7
.500 or above 7.6% 18.7% 7.5%
.500 or above in Conference 32.6% 56.0% 32.5%
Conference Champion 1.3% 1.9% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 9.5% 1.4% 9.5%
First Four1.3% 1.4% 1.3%
First Round1.7% 1.0% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia (Away) - 0.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 61 - 13
Quad 49 - 610 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 78 @Cincinnati L 63-94 6%     0 - 1 -20.5 -7.0 -9.7
  Sat, Nov 8 2 @Duke L 54-95 1%     0 - 2 -15.4 -10.2 -1.7
  Sun, Nov 16 346 Stetson W 76-65 76%     1 - 2 -3.9 -7.2 +2.9
  Wed, Nov 19 222 UNC Asheville W 80-73 47%     2 - 2 +0.4 +10.0 -9.0
  Sat, Nov 22 142 @Lipscomb L 62-83 14%     2 - 3 -16.7 -11.4 -4.1
  Sat, Nov 29 104 @High Point L 73-93 9%     2 - 4 -12.9 -3.6 -8.1
  Sat, Dec 6 262 @South Carolina Upstate L 67-78 32%     2 - 5 -13.5 -7.1 -6.1
  Thu, Dec 11 63 @Virginia Tech L 74-96 5%     2 - 6 -10.3 +3.5 -13.0
  Thu, Dec 18 19 @Georgia L 71-97 1%    
  Wed, Dec 31 225 Wofford L 74-75 47%    
  Sat, Jan 3 151 @Furman L 69-80 16%    
  Wed, Jan 7 239 @Samford L 74-80 28%    
  Sat, Jan 10 360 @The Citadel W 75-71 66%    
  Wed, Jan 14 123 East Tennessee St. L 72-79 25%    
  Sat, Jan 17 227 Chattanooga L 75-76 48%    
  Wed, Jan 21 168 @Mercer L 75-85 20%    
  Sat, Jan 24 331 VMI W 79-73 71%    
  Thu, Jan 29 123 @East Tennessee St. L 69-82 12%    
  Sat, Jan 31 239 Samford L 76-77 49%    
  Wed, Feb 4 284 @UNC Greensboro L 74-78 37%    
  Sat, Feb 7 225 @Wofford L 71-78 28%    
  Wed, Feb 11 360 The Citadel W 78-68 82%    
  Sat, Feb 14 227 @Chattanooga L 72-79 28%    
  Wed, Feb 18 284 UNC Greensboro W 77-75 58%    
  Sat, Feb 21 331 @VMI W 76-75 50%    
  Wed, Feb 25 168 Mercer L 78-82 37%    
  Sat, Feb 28 151 Furman L 72-77 33%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 2.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.0 2.4 0.3 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.3 2.4 5.4 3.0 0.4 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.2 6.6 3.8 0.7 0.0 14.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.3 7.5 4.2 0.7 0.0 17.7 7th
8th 0.2 1.7 5.3 7.4 3.3 0.6 0.0 18.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.7 4.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 13.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.1 5.2 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.1 7.7 10.9 13.8 14.5 13.9 11.8 8.8 5.8 3.5 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 87.4% 0.3    0.2 0.1
14-4 53.9% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 23.0% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 33.3% 33.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.3% 26.4% 26.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.7% 22.3% 22.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
13-5 1.7% 12.5% 12.5% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.5
12-6 3.5% 7.2% 7.2% 15.5 0.1 0.1 3.2
11-7 5.8% 5.3% 5.3% 15.7 0.1 0.2 5.5
10-8 8.8% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4 8.4
9-9 11.8% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.4 11.4
8-10 13.9% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.3 13.6
7-11 14.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 14.4
6-12 13.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.8
5-13 10.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.8
4-14 7.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.7
3-15 4.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.0
2-16 1.8% 1.8
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%