Western Carolina
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.7 #262
Expected Predictive Rating -5.4 #247
Pace 71.9 #95
Improvement +3.5 #46

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #169 C- C C- D+ C
Defense #329 D C+ D D+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #157 1.11 #230 -0.4 #191
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #171 0.76 #163 +0.1 #170
Three Pointers 40% #208 1.00 #213 -1.0 #218
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #214 -1.2 #214
Freethrows 0.28 #247 69% #282 0.20 #260
Second Chance 33.7% #93 0.96 #299 0.32 #161
Turnovers 17.1% #223
Total Offense -0.2 #169

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #287 1.19 #228 +1.5 #126
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #178 0.87 #331 -1.2 #282
Three Pointers 45% #77 1.18 #352 -5.4 #349
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #324 -5.1 #326
Freethrows 0.33 #261 74% #276 0.24 #280
Second Chance 28.5% #106 1.05 #188 0.30 #127
Turnovers 14.1% #317
Total Defense -5.5 #329

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #185 -0.5% #126
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.5% #213 10.4% #339
Possession Length 17.5 #181 16.7 #78
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #301 0.19 #246
Improvement +5.5 #3 -2.0 #297

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 3.2% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 5.6% 8.5% 1.7%
.500 or above in Conference 56.0% 69.7% 38.0%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four1.7% 1.5% 1.9%
First Round2.2% 2.6% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Samford (Home) - 56.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 33 - 54 - 10
Quad 48 - 711 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 52 @Cincinnati L 63 - 94 5% -20  0 - 1 -18 -5 C- C- F -8 F C A-
 Sat, Nov 8 3 @Duke L 54 - 95 1% -23  0 - 2 -14 -10 F C- B- -1 A- C+ D
 Sun, Nov 16 325 Stetson W 76 - 65 76% +8  1 - 2 -2 -7 B F F +4 A C- F
 Wed, Nov 19 205 UNC Asheville W 80 - 73 50% +1  2 - 2 +1 +12 C- B B+ -10 F A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 22 173 @Lipscomb L 62 - 83 23% -12  2 - 3 -19 -13 D- D+ F -5 D C- C-
 Sat, Nov 29 100 @High Point L 73 - 93 11% -7  2 - 4 -12 -4 A+ F F -7 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 301 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 78 48% -4  2 - 5 -16 -7 F D+ C -9 D+ C- C
 Thu, Dec 11 60 @Virginia Tech L 74 - 96 6% -15  2 - 6 -10 +5 B- C C- -14 F D C+
 Thu, Dec 18 29 @Georgia L 82 - 112 2% -16  2 - 7 -12 +6 A+ C+ C- -14 F A- C
 Wed, Dec 31 184 Wofford L 74 - 79 47% -3  2 - 8 0 - 1 -10 -4 F C- F+ -5 D- C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 160 @Furman W 80 - 77 OT 21% +3  3 - 8 1 - 1 +6 +7 C B+ D+ -1 C- B+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 239 @Samford L 77 - 82 34% +6  3 - 9 1 - 2 -6 +4 F A+ D -11 F+ D+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 347 @The Citadel L 77 - 79 OT 63% +2  3 - 10 1 - 3 -11 -1 F+ D- B- -10 C F D-
 Wed, Jan 14 140 East Tennessee St. W 72 - 68 35% -0  4 - 10 2 - 3 +2 +6 B B- D- -3 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 276 Chattanooga L 82 - 90 65% +3  4 - 11 2 - 4 -18 +11 B- D A -29 F F+ F+
 Wed, Jan 21 145 @Mercer L 76 - 88 19% -14  4 - 12 2 - 5 -8 +3 D+ B+ F -11 B- F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 357 VMI W 88 - 58 86% +12  5 - 12 3 - 5 +13 +23 C+ A+ A+ -5 D+ B- D-
 Thu, Jan 29 140 @East Tennessee St. W 90 - 88 17% +9  6 - 12 4 - 5 +6 +21 B+ A+ A- -15 D- C+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 239 Samford W 81 - 79 57%
 Wed, Feb 4 308 @UNC Greensboro W 82 - 81 49%
 Sat, Feb 7 184 @Wofford L 77 - 84 26%
 Wed, Feb 11 347 The Citadel W 80 - 71 81%
 Sat, Feb 14 276 @Chattanooga L 76 - 78 43%
 Wed, Feb 18 308 UNC Greensboro W 84 - 78 71%
 Sat, Feb 21 357 @VMI W 81 - 75 71%
 Wed, Feb 25 145 Mercer L 82 - 85 37%
 Sat, Feb 28 160 Furman L 75 - 78 39%
Totals 11 - 16 9 - 9 -6 +0 C- C C- -5 D C+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.4 1st
2nd 0.4 1.3 0.2 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.7 2.3 1.2 0.0 4.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 6.7 4.7 0.4 13.4 4th
5th 0.4 7.3 17.0 12.2 1.8 0.0 38.6 5th
6th 0.0 3.4 10.6 4.7 0.3 19.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 6.8 3.9 0.2 11.9 7th
8th 0.4 3.5 3.5 0.4 7.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 1.4 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.1 1.6 6.0 14.1 22.3 23.5 19.8 9.2 3.0 0.5 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 55.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-6 3.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.5% 10.8% 10.8% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-6 3.0% 8.2% 8.2% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 2.7
11-7 9.2% 5.9% 5.9% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 8.7
10-8 19.8% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.7 19.1
9-9 23.5% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.7 22.8
8-10 22.3% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.5 21.8
7-11 14.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 13.9
6-12 6.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.9
5-13 1.6% 1.6
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.8 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%