Western Carolina
Southern
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.8#302
Expected Predictive Rating-2.2#215
Pace73.6#81
Improvement-2.0#323

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#240
First Shot-3.7#283
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#87
Layup/Dunks-9.5#358
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#284
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.5#11
Freethrows-0.7#232
Improvement+0.1#169

Defense
Total Defense-5.6#329
First Shot-4.5#310
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#254
Layups/Dunks-5.2#324
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#139
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#166
Freethrows-0.6#224
Improvement-2.1#332
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 5.1% 8.0% 1.6%
.500 or above in Conference 7.6% 9.8% 5.1%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 47.0% 42.8% 51.9%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina Upstate (Away) - 54.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 33 - 103 - 15
Quad 47 - 610 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 224   Bowling Green W 79-71 OT 42%     1 - 0 +2.2 -12.2 +13.1
  Nov 12, 2021 81   @ Wake Forest L 75-87 6%     1 - 1 -2.2 +0.9 -2.2
  Nov 14, 2021 178   @ East Carolina L 79-95 18%     1 - 2 -13.9 +1.3 -14.2
  Nov 19, 2021 211   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 75-91 29%     1 - 3 -18.1 -4.0 -13.4
  Nov 20, 2021 320   American W 80-79 54%     2 - 3 -7.9 +3.6 -11.5
  Nov 21, 2021 210   @ Longwood W 64-53 20%     3 - 3 +11.9 -5.0 +17.4
  Nov 27, 2021 190   @ Gardner-Webb L 59-87 18%     3 - 4 -26.3 -9.8 -18.0
  Dec 04, 2021 334   @ South Carolina Upstate W 77-76 54%    
  Dec 08, 2021 277   Tennessee Tech W 77-76 55%    
  Dec 11, 2021 270   UNC Asheville W 75-74 53%    
  Dec 20, 2021 159   @ Georgia L 71-82 15%    
  Dec 22, 2021 223   @ Charlotte L 67-75 23%    
  Dec 29, 2021 167   UNC Greensboro L 65-70 33%    
  Jan 01, 2022 123   @ East Tennessee St. L 64-78 10%    
  Jan 05, 2022 238   The Citadel L 79-80 47%    
  Jan 08, 2022 239   @ Samford L 78-85 27%    
  Jan 12, 2022 100   Chattanooga L 64-74 20%    
  Jan 15, 2022 119   Wofford L 69-77 25%    
  Jan 19, 2022 105   @ Furman L 69-84 9%    
  Jan 22, 2022 196   @ Mercer L 70-79 20%    
  Jan 26, 2022 238   @ The Citadel L 76-83 28%    
  Jan 29, 2022 239   Samford L 81-82 47%    
  Feb 02, 2022 123   East Tennessee St. L 67-75 26%    
  Feb 04, 2022 261   @ VMI L 72-77 31%    
  Feb 09, 2022 100   @ Chattanooga L 61-77 9%    
  Feb 12, 2022 119   @ Wofford L 66-80 12%    
  Feb 16, 2022 105   Furman L 72-81 22%    
  Feb 19, 2022 196   Mercer L 73-76 39%    
  Feb 23, 2022 167   @ UNC Greensboro L 62-73 16%    
  Feb 26, 2022 261   VMI W 75-74 51%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.3 4th
5th 0.3 1.1 1.6 0.7 0.0 3.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.8 1.1 0.1 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.2 4.3 1.6 0.1 10.0 7th
8th 0.3 2.0 6.0 5.8 2.2 0.2 16.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 4.8 8.5 6.3 2.3 0.3 23.4 9th
10th 1.8 5.7 10.4 10.0 5.4 1.7 0.2 35.2 10th
Total 1.8 5.7 11.5 15.1 16.0 14.9 12.0 9.5 5.8 3.4 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 45.5% 0.0    0.0
13-5 29.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 12.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 1.7% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 4.3% 4.3% 14.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.4% 5.5% 5.5% 14.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 1.3% 4.7% 4.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
10-8 2.3% 2.0% 2.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.2
9-9 3.4% 3.2% 3.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.3
8-10 5.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.7
7-11 9.5% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 9.4
6-12 12.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.0
5-13 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.9
4-14 16.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.0
3-15 15.1% 15.1
2-16 11.5% 11.5
1-17 5.7% 5.7
0-18 1.8% 1.8
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%