VMI
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -14.6 #359
Expected Predictive Rating -15.4 #354
Pace 67.4 #221
Improvement -2.8 #305

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #325 F+ D C C- C
Defense #360 F+ F+ C C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #343 0.98 #353 -7.3 #356
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #294 0.68 #305 -2.6 #306
Three Pointers 54% #6 0.87 #343 +2.6 #93
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #357 -7.4 #357
Freethrows 0.29 #226 70% #242 0.21 #231
Second Chance 26.6% #293 0.90 #326 0.24 #330
Turnovers 17.1% #189
Total Offense -6.0 #325

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #221 1.31 #340 -2.1 #251
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #259 0.85 #320 +0.1 #186
Three Pointers 45% #74 1.14 #335 -4.6 #342
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #352 -6.7 #352
Freethrows 0.32 #217 72% #150 0.23 #215
Second Chance 40.0% #364 1.01 #165 0.40 #350
Turnovers 16.6% #201
Total Defense -8.6 #360

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #178 0.5% #209
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -14.6% #362 12.5% #358
Possession Length 19.1 #339 15.9 #14
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #325 0.23 #334
Improvement -1.9 #289 -0.9 #241

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 99.5% 99.2% 99.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Home) - 10.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 80 - 12
Quad 44 - 134 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 332 @Southern Indiana W 78 - 74 25% -3  1 - 0 -4 -2 F+ D+ B+ -2 C- C- D-
 Sun, Nov 9 54 @Missouri L 68 - 106 1% -11  1 - 1 -25 -5 B- F F -17 B- F F+
 Sat, Nov 15 297 Jacksonville L 67 - 69 35% -3  1 - 2 -13 -6 F+ A+ F -7 F+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 19 138 @Richmond L 54 - 87 5% -21  1 - 3 -29 -15 D- D+ F -16 F D+ C-
 Sat, Nov 22 330 @Stetson L 80 - 99 25% -9  1 - 4 -26 +8 D D+ A+ -36 F F D-
 Mon, Nov 24 196 Buffalo L 70 - 78 13% -1  1 - 5 -10 -4 F A- A+ -7 C D B-
 Wed, Nov 26 147 Bowling Green L 48 - 81 8% -22  1 - 6 -32 -21 F F C- -13 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 47 @Central Florida L 57 - 82 1% -9  1 - 7 -11 -9 F C- D+ -2 A- A D-
 Tue, Dec 9 316 Loyola Maryland W 86 - 70 42% +15  2 - 7 +4 +16 B+ C A+ -10 C F C-
 Sun, Dec 21 233 @Radford L 90 - 97 11% -2  2 - 8 -8 +11 C A+ C- -19 F F C+
 Thu, Jan 1 229 Samford L 58 - 78 23% -4  2 - 9 0 - 1 -27 -18 F F D+ -10 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 274 Chattanooga W 79 - 71 31% +8  3 - 9 1 - 1 -2 +2 C+ F+ D -3 B F+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 132 @East Tennessee St. L 67 - 81 5% -10  3 - 10 1 - 2 -9 -0 F+ F A+ -10 F C- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 164 @Furman L 48 - 69 6% -10  3 - 11 1 - 3 -18 -20 F D+ F +0 B- F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 150 Mercer L 67 - 77 13% -2  3 - 12 1 - 4 -12 -5 C+ F C -8 A- F B+
 Sat, Jan 17 344 The Citadel L 68 - 82 51% -10  3 - 13 1 - 5 -29 -10 D- F D -19 F B+ C
 Wed, Jan 21 310 UNC Greensboro L 78 - 85 39% -6  3 - 14 1 - 6 -19 +1 F A B -21 F+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 24 276 @Western Carolina L 58 - 88 15% -12  3 - 15 1 - 7 -34 -7 F D- B- -32 F F F
 Thu, Jan 29 344 @The Citadel L 56 - 80 29% -12  3 - 16 1 - 8 -33 -15 F F D- -20 F B+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 150 @Mercer L 81 - 95 5% -4  3 - 17 1 - 9 -10 +5 C F+ B -15 D+ F D-
 Wed, Feb 4 199 Wofford L 67 - 81 19% -12  3 - 18 1 - 10 -19 -8 D+ F A- -12 F A+ D-
 Sat, Feb 7 132 East Tennessee St. L 66 - 79 11%
 Wed, Feb 11 310 @UNC Greensboro L 72 - 81 20%
 Sat, Feb 14 164 Furman L 67 - 78 15%
 Wed, Feb 18 199 @Wofford L 69 - 84 7%
 Sat, Feb 21 276 Western Carolina L 77 - 82 33%
 Thu, Feb 26 229 @Samford L 69 - 83 10%
 Sat, Feb 28 274 @Chattanooga L 68 - 79 15%
Totals 4 - 24 2 - 16 -15 -6 F+ D C -9 F+ F+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 32.0 37.3 21.6 6.5 0.9 98.4 10th
Total 32.0 37.3 21.7 6.9 1.9 0.3 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13 1.9% 1.9
4-14 6.9% 6.9
3-15 21.7% 21.7
2-16 37.3% 37.3
1-17 32.0% 32.0
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 24.6%