VMI
Southern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#261
Expected Predictive Rating-14.0#333
Pace65.5#271
Improvement-0.9#249

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#202
First Shot-2.9#267
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#72
Layup/Dunks-5.1#328
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#260
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#28
Freethrows-2.5#310
Improvement-1.7#321

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#309
First Shot-4.4#306
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#194
Layups/Dunks+2.1#106
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#351
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#260
Freethrows+0.4#166
Improvement+0.8#99
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.5% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 6.1% 10.6% 3.5%
.500 or above in Conference 18.5% 22.6% 16.2%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.2% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 25.9% 21.9% 28.3%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
First Round0.9% 1.3% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland (Away) - 36.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 33 - 83 - 13
Quad 46 - 79 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 293   @ Presbyterian L 72-73 OT 45%     0 - 1 -5.3 +0.8 -6.0
  Nov 20, 2021 255   @ Marist L 74-78 OT 37%     0 - 2 -6.1 -2.6 -3.2
  Nov 24, 2021 293   Presbyterian L 54-59 57%     0 - 3 -12.3 -13.7 +0.8
  Nov 25, 2021 340   Central Arkansas W 73-67 76%     1 - 3 -7.0 -6.7 -0.3
  Nov 26, 2021 285   @ New Orleans L 71-79 42%     1 - 4 -11.5 -3.9 -7.8
  Dec 03, 2021 251   @ Portland L 69-73 37%    
  Dec 05, 2021 173   @ Seattle L 68-76 23%    
  Dec 11, 2021 190   Gardner-Webb L 69-70 46%    
  Dec 14, 2021 81   @ Wake Forest L 64-79 8%    
  Dec 22, 2021 338   @ Hampton W 72-68 63%    
  Dec 29, 2021 119   @ Wofford L 63-74 15%    
  Jan 01, 2022 105   Furman L 69-76 27%    
  Jan 05, 2022 123   @ East Tennessee St. L 62-73 15%    
  Jan 08, 2022 167   UNC Greensboro L 63-65 43%    
  Jan 13, 2022 196   @ Mercer L 66-73 27%    
  Jan 15, 2022 238   @ The Citadel L 72-77 35%    
  Jan 20, 2022 239   Samford W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 22, 2022 100   Chattanooga L 62-69 26%    
  Jan 26, 2022 105   @ Furman L 66-79 13%    
  Jan 29, 2022 123   East Tennessee St. L 65-70 33%    
  Feb 02, 2022 167   @ UNC Greensboro L 60-68 23%    
  Feb 04, 2022 302   Western Carolina W 77-72 69%    
  Feb 10, 2022 196   Mercer L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 12, 2022 238   The Citadel W 75-74 55%    
  Feb 17, 2022 239   @ Samford L 74-79 35%    
  Feb 19, 2022 100   @ Chattanooga L 59-72 12%    
  Feb 23, 2022 119   Wofford L 66-71 32%    
  Feb 26, 2022 302   @ Western Carolina L 74-75 49%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 5.1 4th
5th 0.3 1.8 3.4 1.7 0.2 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.0 2.2 0.2 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 5.0 6.3 3.1 0.4 16.0 7th
8th 0.4 2.2 5.8 6.5 3.1 0.5 18.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.5 6.7 5.7 2.8 0.3 19.8 9th
10th 0.6 2.4 4.4 5.8 3.3 0.8 0.0 17.3 10th
Total 0.6 2.4 5.3 9.7 12.1 13.5 14.7 12.6 10.6 7.1 5.6 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 69.2% 0.1    0.1
14-4 65.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 30.1% 0.2    0.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 12.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 13.1% 13.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 0.8% 17.2% 17.2% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-6 1.6% 6.8% 6.8% 15.2 0.1 0.0 1.5
11-7 3.0% 5.1% 5.1% 15.3 0.1 0.0 2.9
10-8 5.6% 2.4% 2.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 5.4
9-9 7.1% 3.0% 3.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 6.9
8-10 10.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.5
7-11 12.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 12.5
6-12 14.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 14.6
5-13 13.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.5
4-14 12.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.1
3-15 9.7% 9.7
2-16 5.3% 5.3
1-17 2.4% 2.4
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%