Furman
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.4 #163
Expected Predictive Rating +0.2 #160
Pace 65.8 #260
Improvement +0.0 #182

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #170 B- C- D D+ B-
Defense #164 C+ C- D+ B+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #210 1.30 #44 +2.1 #109
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #312 0.97 #9 -1.3 #248
Three Pointers 48% #35 0.92 #305 +1.4 #127
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #102 +2.2 #112
Freethrows 0.28 #261 68% #323 0.19 #295
Second Chance 30.2% #194 0.95 #285 0.29 #238
Turnovers 19.7% #328
Total Offense -0.2 #170

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #244 1.15 #157 +1.5 #124
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #73 0.83 #288 -1.8 #316
Three Pointers 40% #228 0.92 #63 +2.5 #86
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #118 +2.1 #105
Freethrows 0.24 #24 72% #192 0.17 #28
Second Chance 31.3% #211 1.07 #249 0.34 #241
Turnovers 15.0% #302
Total Defense -0.1 #164

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #78 -1.1% #82
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.5% #116 -2.5% #129
Possession Length 17.6 #216 17.3 #190
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #131 0.19 #231
Improvement +0.3 #158 -0.3 #203

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.3% 22.6% 17.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 100.0% 99.3%
Conference Champion 18.2% 38.9% 9.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round19.2% 22.6% 17.7%
Second Round0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Away) - 30.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 35 - 35 - 7
Quad 414 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 98 High Point L 71 - 97 30% -17  0 - 1 -21 -6 C+ D- F -14 F C+ F
 Fri, Nov 7 142 Troy L 61 - 64 55% -7  0 - 2 -5 -12 D+ D F +7 B A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 14 111 @Northern Iowa L 54 - 70 25% -10  0 - 3 -9 -6 D+ D+ D- -5 C- B F+
 Sun, Nov 23 208 Queens W 90 - 79 71% +11  1 - 3 +5 +20 A+ F+ A+ -14 B- F F
 Thu, Nov 27 136 Richmond W 73 - 72 43% +6  2 - 3 +3 +1 B B+ F +2 C B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 90 Illinois St. L 65 - 72 27% -4  2 - 4 -1 +0 B+ F+ D -2 B- D+ C-
 Wed, Dec 3 195 @Elon W 97 - 88 45% -1  3 - 4 +10 +19 B+ D- A+ -9 B C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 165 Harvard W 79 - 69 62% +7  4 - 4 +7 +6 A+ B F +0 B- B F
 Thu, Dec 18 327 @Manhattan W 75 - 68 75% +2  5 - 4 -0 -4 C D F +3 C+ C- C
 Sun, Dec 21 245 Charleston Southern W 84 - 76 76% +6  6 - 4 +0 +4 C+ B- C+ -4 B- C F
 Wed, Dec 31 150 Mercer W 74 - 72 58% +3  7 - 4 1 - 0 -0 +1 B D- B- -1 A+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 277 Western Carolina L 77 - 80 OT 81% -3  7 - 5 1 - 1 -12 -4 C- D- C+ -8 C F C-
 Wed, Jan 7 276 @Chattanooga W 78 - 67 62% +5  8 - 5 2 - 1 +8 +5 C B- D+ +3 C C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 356 VMI W 69 - 48 93% +10  9 - 5 3 - 1 +4 -10 D- B F +15 A+ C- A+
 Wed, Jan 14 229 @Samford W 77 - 73 52% +2  10 - 5 4 - 1 +3 +1 C D+ C +2 C+ C C-
 Sat, Jan 17 202 Wofford L 70 - 74 69% +3  10 - 6 4 - 2 -10 -1 F+ A+ D- -9 D- D+ D-
 Wed, Jan 21 345 @The Citadel L 75 - 77 OT 79% +6  10 - 7 4 - 3 -11 -2 D F C -8 C+ F F
 Fri, Jan 23 312 @UNC Greensboro W 89 - 66 71% +5  11 - 7 5 - 3 +17 +20 A+ D+ A+ -0 C B- D+
 Thu, Jan 29 229 Samford W 78 - 73 73% +4  12 - 7 6 - 3 -2 +6 A- A+ F -8 B- F F
 Sun, Feb 1 276 Chattanooga W 75 - 70 81% +12  13 - 7 7 - 3 -4 +2 C+ C+ D- -6 B F C+
 Wed, Feb 4 132 @East Tennessee St. L 69 - 74 31%
 Sun, Feb 8 312 UNC Greensboro W 80 - 68 87%
 Wed, Feb 11 150 @Mercer L 76 - 80 35%
 Sat, Feb 14 356 @VMI W 79 - 68 85%
 Wed, Feb 18 132 East Tennessee St. W 72 - 71 53%
 Sat, Feb 21 202 @Wofford L 74 - 75 47%
 Wed, Feb 25 345 The Citadel W 76 - 62 91%
 Sat, Feb 28 277 @Western Carolina W 78 - 75 62%
Totals 18 - 10 12 - 6 +0 +0 B- C- D +0 C+ C- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 7.1 8.6 1.8 18.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 9.3 13.2 1.0 24.7 2nd
3rd 1.0 8.1 14.2 2.3 25.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 8.8 13.3 4.3 0.0 28.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 1.3 0.2 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.4 3.1 11.2 22.7 28.5 22.7 9.6 1.8 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 1.8    1.8
14-4 89.6% 8.6    4.6 3.7 0.4
13-5 31.3% 7.1    1.1 3.2 2.3 0.4
12-6 2.4% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.2% 18.2 7.5 7.0 3.0 0.7 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.8% 37.9% 37.9% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.1
14-4 9.6% 28.6% 28.6% 13.8 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 6.9
13-5 22.7% 23.3% 23.3% 14.2 0.6 2.9 1.7 0.1 17.4
12-6 28.5% 19.4% 19.4% 14.5 0.2 2.3 2.8 0.2 22.9
11-7 22.7% 14.8% 14.8% 14.9 0.1 0.7 2.2 0.4 19.3
10-8 11.2% 13.2% 13.2% 15.2 0.2 0.9 0.4 9.7
9-9 3.1% 5.1% 5.1% 15.3 0.1 0.1 3.0
8-10 0.4% 9.1% 9.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.3% 19.3% 0.0% 14.4 80.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 12.9 1.5 19.4 65.7 13.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%