Furman
Southern
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#87
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#102
Pace70.7#108
Improvement+0.9#81

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#41
First Shot+4.8#51
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#95
Layup/Dunks+3.5#53
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#326
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#77
Freethrows+1.2#88
Improvement+0.4#109

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#175
First Shot-2.1#245
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#31
Layups/Dunks-2.5#277
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#297
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#100
Freethrows-0.1#201
Improvement+0.5#107
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.6% 53.6% 46.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 78.1% 81.8% 56.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round52.6% 53.6% 46.5%
Second Round10.2% 10.6% 7.4%
Sweet Sixteen2.7% 2.8% 2.0%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wofford (Home) - 85.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 38 - 29 - 4
Quad 412 - 321 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 128   Belmont W 89-74 72%     1 - 0 +14.6 +11.5 +2.6
  Nov 17, 2022 45   Penn St. L 68-73 32%     1 - 1 +5.5 +4.8 +0.2
  Nov 18, 2022 176   Old Dominion L 77-82 72%     1 - 2 -5.2 +1.9 -6.9
  Nov 20, 2022 229   South Carolina W 79-60 81%     2 - 2 +15.6 +8.6 +7.9
  Nov 29, 2022 179   @ Appalachian St. W 65-61 63%     3 - 2 +6.5 -5.3 +11.7
  Dec 03, 2022 355   South Carolina St. W 88-76 97%     4 - 2 -5.1 -4.9 -1.5
  Dec 06, 2022 304   High Point L 82-85 93%     4 - 3 -13.5 +1.4 -14.9
  Dec 10, 2022 244   Winthrop W 82-67 88%     5 - 3 +8.0 +4.7 +3.7
  Dec 13, 2022 37   @ North Carolina St. L 73-92 21%     5 - 4 -4.8 -2.4 -0.2
  Dec 17, 2022 135   Stephen F. Austin W 72-70 65%     6 - 4 +3.8 +2.8 +1.1
  Dec 29, 2022 335   VMI W 85-62 95%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +9.8 +2.5 +7.0
  Dec 31, 2022 260   @ Western Carolina L 67-79 79%     7 - 5 1 - 1 -14.6 -3.0 -12.5
  Jan 04, 2023 301   The Citadel W 97-72 93%     8 - 5 2 - 1 +14.5 +14.4 -1.0
  Jan 07, 2023 223   @ East Tennessee St. W 70-56 72%     9 - 5 3 - 1 +13.8 +1.8 +12.6
  Jan 11, 2023 228   @ Mercer W 84-66 72%     10 - 5 4 - 1 +17.6 +18.7 +0.5
  Jan 14, 2023 138   UNC Greensboro L 80-88 OT 74%     10 - 6 4 - 2 -9.0 +4.5 -12.8
  Jan 18, 2023 164   @ Chattanooga W 77-69 61%     11 - 6 5 - 2 +10.9 +3.6 +7.4
  Jan 22, 2023 215   @ Wofford W 96-82 70%     12 - 6 6 - 2 +14.5 +19.2 -4.9
  Jan 25, 2023 145   Samford W 91-84 OT 75%     13 - 6 7 - 2 +5.6 +6.9 -1.9
  Jan 29, 2023 138   @ UNC Greensboro W 69-57 55%     14 - 6 8 - 2 +16.4 +10.0 +7.6
  Feb 01, 2023 164   Chattanooga W 79-58 79%     15 - 6 9 - 2 +18.5 +4.3 +14.9
  Feb 04, 2023 215   Wofford W 80-69 85%    
  Feb 08, 2023 335   @ VMI W 83-70 89%    
  Feb 11, 2023 260   Western Carolina W 83-69 91%    
  Feb 15, 2023 301   @ The Citadel W 81-70 84%    
  Feb 19, 2023 223   East Tennessee St. W 77-66 86%    
  Feb 22, 2023 228   Mercer W 78-66 87%    
  Feb 25, 2023 145   @ Samford W 78-76 55%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 15 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 14.4 35.9 25.9 78.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 5.1 9.1 3.1 18.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 0.6 3.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 8.7 24.1 39.0 25.9 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 25.9    25.2 0.7
15-3 92.1% 35.9    25.1 10.3 0.6
14-4 59.8% 14.4    5.3 7.3 1.8
13-5 20.0% 1.7    0.3 0.9 0.5
12-6 4.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 78.1% 78.1 55.8 19.3 2.9 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 25.9% 59.9% 59.8% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 1.2 6.6 6.8 1.0 0.0 10.4 0.0%
15-3 39.0% 53.9% 53.9% 13.1 0.1 3.5 11.9 5.4 0.1 18.0
14-4 24.1% 47.7% 47.7% 13.5 0.0 0.6 5.2 5.3 0.4 0.0 12.6
13-5 8.7% 42.5% 42.5% 13.7 0.1 1.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.0
12-6 2.0% 38.2% 38.2% 14.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 1.2
11-7 0.3% 29.0% 29.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
10-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 52.6% 52.6% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 1.3 10.8 25.2 14.3 1.0 0.0 47.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 25.9% 59.9% 12.5 0.0 4.5 25.4 26.1 3.8 0.0