IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
East Tennessee St.
Southern
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.2	#152
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.7	#294
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.3	#170

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.6	#143

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	16.7%	19.6%	11.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.6	13.1	13.9

.500 or above	78.6%	86.7%	65.5%
.500 or above in Conference	79.5%	84.2%	71.9%
Conference Champion	20.7%	24.8%	14.1%
Last Place in Conference	2.0%	1.3%	3.1%

First Four	0.6%	0.4%	0.8%
First Round	16.8%	19.7%	12.1%
Second Round	1.6%	2.1%	0.7%
Sweet Sixteen	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Presbyterian (Away) - 61.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	1 - 3
Quad 3	4 - 5	5 - 8
Quad 4	14 - 4	19 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2025	267	@ Presbyterian	W	67-64	62%
Nov 12, 2025	266	Northern Kentucky	W	70-61	79%
Nov 15, 2025	195	@ North Alabama	L	67-68	47%
Nov 21, 2025	293	Morehead St.	W	69-58	83%
Nov 23, 2025	348	Louisiana Monroe	W	75-60	91%
Nov 29, 2025	358	Central Arkansas	W	76-58	94%
Dec 02, 2025	65	@ Dayton	L	61-73	15%
Dec 05, 2025	163	South Alabama	W	65-61	63%
Dec 12, 2025	276	@ Austin Peay	W	69-65	62%
Dec 16, 2025	25	@ North Carolina	L	64-82	6%
Dec 20, 2025	153	Jacksonville St.	W	66-63	60%
Dec 31, 2025	342	@ The Citadel	W	70-61	79%
Jan 03, 2026	248	Mercer	W	75-67	76%
Jan 07, 2026	296	VMI	W	74-63	82%
Jan 10, 2026	225	UNC Greensboro	W	67-60	72%
Jan 14, 2026	273	@ Western Carolina	W	72-69	61%
Jan 17, 2026	166	@ Samford	L	72-74	44%
Jan 21, 2026	125	@ Chattanooga	L	67-72	35%
Jan 24, 2026	342	The Citadel	W	73-58	89%
Jan 29, 2026	273	Western Carolina	W	75-66	78%
Jan 31, 2026	206	@ Wofford	L	65-66	50%
Feb 04, 2026	133	Furman	W	68-67	55%
Feb 07, 2026	296	@ VMI	W	71-66	66%
Feb 11, 2026	125	Chattanooga	W	70-69	54%
Feb 14, 2026	166	Samford	W	75-71	64%
Feb 18, 2026	133	@ Furman	L	65-70	36%
Feb 21, 2026	225	@ UNC Greensboro	W	64-63	52%
Feb 25, 2026	206	Wofford	W	68-62	69%
Feb 28, 2026	248	@ Mercer	W	72-70	57%
Projected Record						18 - 11	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southern Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.5	2.3	4.9	5.4	4.6	2.2	0.8		20.7	1st
2nd											0.1	1.2	4.2	6.2	4.6	1.6	0.2				18.1	2nd
3rd										0.2	1.5	4.7	5.6	2.7	0.4	0.0					15.2	3rd
4th									0.2	1.7	5.0	4.8	1.5	0.2							13.3	4th
5th								0.2	1.6	4.2	3.7	0.9	0.1								10.6	5th
6th						0.0	0.2	1.4	3.4	2.6	0.6	0.0									8.1	6th
7th					0.0	0.1	1.2	2.7	1.9	0.4	0.0										6.3	7th
8th				0.0	0.2	1.0	1.6	0.9	0.2	0.0											4.1	8th
9th			0.0	0.2	0.7	0.9	0.6	0.1	0.0												2.5	9th
10th		0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0														1.1	10th

Total		0.1	0.3	0.6	1.2	2.2	3.5	5.3	7.3	9.0	10.9	11.7	11.7	11.4	9.9	7.0	4.8	2.2	0.8			Total

Southern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.8		0.8
17-1	100.0%	2.2		2.2	0.0
16-2	96.5%	4.6		4.1	0.5	0.0
15-3	76.8%	5.4		3.8	1.5	0.1
14-4	48.8%	4.9		2.4	2.0	0.4	0.0
13-5	20.0%	2.3		0.6	1.1	0.5	0.1
12-6	4.0%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.4%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	20.7%	20.7		13.9	5.3	1.2	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.8%		64.4%	63.9%	0.5%	10.7					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0				0.3		1.5%
17-1	2.2%		56.4%	56.2%	0.2%	11.7							0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0		1.0		0.4%
16-2	4.8%		45.9%	45.9%	0.0%	12.2										0.0		0.4	1.1	0.6	0.1	0.0		2.6		0.0%
15-3	7.0%		37.3%	37.3%		12.7												0.2	1.0	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	4.4
14-4	9.9%		26.3%	26.3%		13.3												0.0	0.6	1.0	0.8	0.2	0.0	7.3
13-5	11.4%		22.1%	22.1%		13.8												0.0	0.2	0.9	0.9	0.4	0.1	8.9
12-6	11.7%		16.5%	16.5%		14.4													0.1	0.4	0.8	0.5	0.1	9.8
11-7	11.7%		10.6%	10.6%		15.1													0.0	0.2	0.5	0.4	0.2	10.5
10-8	10.9%		7.8%	7.8%		16.0														0.0	0.3	0.4	0.2	10.1
9-9	9.0%		5.7%	5.7%		18.6														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	8.5
8-10	7.3%		3.5%	3.5%		18.4															0.0	0.1	0.2	7.0
7-11	5.3%		2.0%	2.0%		20.0																0.0	0.1	5.2
6-12	3.5%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																	0.0	3.5
5-13	2.2%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.0	2.2
4-14	1.2%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.0	1.2
3-15	0.6%																							0.6
2-16	0.3%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																	0.0	0.3
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18

Total	100%		16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	13.6					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	1.3	3.7	4.3	4.0	2.3	1.4	83.3		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	5.0					100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	2.4%	11.0											2.4