East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#123
Expected Predictive Rating+9.0#69
Pace64.5#296
Improvement+2.5#31

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#134
First Shot-1.3#210
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#52
Layup/Dunks-4.7#325
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#54
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#39
Freethrows-4.8#354
Improvement-0.4#233

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#113
First Shot+2.2#108
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#224
Layups/Dunks+1.1#153
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#339
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#51
Freethrows+1.0#132
Improvement+2.9#10
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.9% 23.8% 16.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 2.4% 0.5%
Average Seed 12.8 12.1 13.1
.500 or above 88.1% 95.1% 86.4%
.500 or above in Conference 84.2% 88.6% 83.1%
Conference Champion 20.3% 28.4% 18.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.3% 1.0%
First Four0.5% 1.0% 0.4%
First Round17.5% 23.0% 16.1%
Second Round2.6% 4.2% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 1.0% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UAB (Away) - 20.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 37 - 59 - 10
Quad 410 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 172   @ Appalachian St. L 67-69 51%     0 - 1 +0.7 +4.4 -3.9
  Nov 14, 2021 18   @ Tennessee L 62-94 9%     0 - 2 -14.5 -6.0 -6.1
  Nov 18, 2021 334   South Carolina Upstate W 56-43 94%     1 - 2 -1.8 -18.7 +18.5
  Nov 22, 2021 89   Murray St. W 66-58 38%     2 - 2 +14.1 +0.3 +14.2
  Nov 23, 2021 93   Missouri St. W 77-76 39%     3 - 2 +6.8 +16.0 -9.1
  Nov 24, 2021 137   Kent St. W 57-51 53%     4 - 2 +8.0 -9.2 +18.0
  Dec 01, 2021 51   @ UAB L 63-72 20%    
  Dec 11, 2021 134   Morehead St. W 67-63 63%    
  Dec 14, 2021 281   N.C. A&T W 74-62 88%    
  Dec 18, 2021 270   @ UNC Asheville W 71-65 71%    
  Dec 22, 2021 159   @ Georgia L 69-70 49%    
  Dec 30, 2021 100   @ Chattanooga L 61-66 33%    
  Jan 01, 2022 302   Western Carolina W 78-64 90%    
  Jan 05, 2022 261   VMI W 73-62 85%    
  Jan 08, 2022 119   Wofford W 68-65 59%    
  Jan 12, 2022 105   @ Furman L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 15, 2022 239   @ Samford W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 19, 2022 196   Mercer W 71-64 75%    
  Jan 22, 2022 238   The Citadel W 77-67 82%    
  Jan 26, 2022 167   UNC Greensboro W 65-59 71%    
  Jan 29, 2022 261   @ VMI W 70-65 67%    
  Feb 02, 2022 302   @ Western Carolina W 75-67 74%    
  Feb 05, 2022 119   @ Wofford L 65-68 39%    
  Feb 07, 2022 105   Furman W 71-69 55%    
  Feb 12, 2022 239   Samford W 79-69 82%    
  Feb 16, 2022 196   @ Mercer W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 19, 2022 238   @ The Citadel W 74-70 62%    
  Feb 23, 2022 100   Chattanooga W 64-63 53%    
  Feb 27, 2022 167   @ UNC Greensboro L 61-62 50%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 3.7 5.4 5.3 3.3 1.4 0.3 20.3 1st
2nd 0.0 2.0 5.7 6.6 3.6 1.1 0.0 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 5.9 7.2 2.7 0.3 0.0 18.6 3rd
4th 0.2 1.6 6.0 4.8 1.7 0.2 14.5 4th
5th 0.2 1.6 4.4 3.1 0.9 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 3.3 2.8 0.4 8.0 6th
7th 0.2 0.9 2.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.2 2.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.4 4.6 6.8 9.3 11.9 13.7 15.2 13.2 9.4 6.4 3.4 1.4 0.3 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4
16-2 98.6% 3.3    2.9 0.4
15-3 83.0% 5.3    4.0 1.2 0.1
14-4 57.9% 5.4    3.2 1.9 0.3 0.0
13-5 27.9% 3.7    1.3 1.6 0.7 0.0
12-6 4.6% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.3% 20.3 13.4 5.4 1.3 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 80.6% 49.4% 31.2% 8.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 61.6%
17-1 1.4% 61.7% 47.0% 14.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 27.7%
16-2 3.4% 43.8% 36.1% 7.6% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.9 12.0%
15-3 6.4% 36.2% 34.2% 2.0% 12.3 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.7 0.1 4.1 3.0%
14-4 9.4% 32.5% 32.2% 0.2% 12.5 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.3 0.3%
13-5 13.2% 23.7% 23.7% 13.0 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.8 0.0 10.1
12-6 15.2% 16.7% 16.7% 13.3 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.2 12.7
11-7 13.7% 12.8% 12.8% 13.6 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 12.0
10-8 11.9% 10.7% 10.7% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 10.6
9-9 9.3% 8.7% 8.7% 14.6 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 8.5
8-10 6.8% 3.5% 3.5% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.5
7-11 4.6% 1.5% 1.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 4.5
6-12 2.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.4
5-13 1.3% 3.1% 3.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.3
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.9% 17.1% 0.7% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.2 4.7 6.0 3.7 1.3 0.2 82.1 0.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.4 90.9 4.5 4.5