East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.8 #132
Expected Predictive Rating -0.5 #172
Pace 64.9 #285
Improvement -0.8 #228

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #121 C C B- B- B-
Defense #159 D+ B- B C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #34 1.21 #111 +4.9 #31
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #206 0.82 #82 +0.0 #171
Three Pointers 36% #285 0.92 #303 -4.3 #318
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #149 +0.7 #151
Freethrows 0.31 #159 77% #33 0.24 #105
Second Chance 27.1% #277 1.18 #31 0.32 #162
Turnovers 15.5% #94
Total Offense +1.8 #121

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #225 1.23 #276 -0.4 #194
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #332 0.66 #38 +2.8 #10
Three Pointers 48% #25 1.07 #266 -4.9 #346
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #268 -2.5 #269
Freethrows 0.30 #155 75% #305 0.22 #185
Second Chance 30.3% #167 0.90 #34 0.27 #76
Turnovers 19.6% #51
Total Defense +0.0 #159

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #99 1.2% #280
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.1% #170 3.8% #251
Possession Length 18.3 #281 17.1 #163
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #229 0.21 #297
Improvement +1.2 #116 -2.0 #291

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.2% 33.9% 28.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 66.5% 77.3% 43.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round32.2% 33.9% 28.7%
Second Round1.6% 1.9% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Home) - 68.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 23 - 5
Quad 418 - 521 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 263 @Presbyterian L 64 - 68 67% -2  0 - 1 -7 -5 F A F+ -3 C+ F A
 Wed, Nov 12 194 Northern Kentucky W 75 - 63 75% +8  1 - 1 +7 -3 A+ F F +9 B A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 328 @North Alabama W 78 - 74 81% -8  2 - 1 -3 +3 B+ F A -6 D- F B
 Fri, Nov 21 297 Morehead St. W 77 - 62 88% +2  3 - 1 +4 +3 F+ B- B- +2 D A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 360 Louisiana Monroe W 97 - 55 96% +20  4 - 1 +24 +16 A A B- +8 A+ C C+
 Sat, Nov 29 219 Central Arkansas W 80 - 57 78% +10  5 - 1 +17 +2 A F A +14 A+ B- B-
 Tue, Dec 2 88 @Dayton L 71 - 88 24% -10  5 - 2 -8 +1 B- C+ F -8 F C+ B
 Fri, Dec 5 196 South Alabama W 91 - 65 75% +5  6 - 2 +21 +19 C A+ A+ +2 F+ A+ B-
 Fri, Dec 12 174 @Austin Peay L 75 - 76 50% -6  6 - 3 +1 +5 C+ D+ B+ -4 F+ A+ D+
 Tue, Dec 16 29 @North Carolina L 58 - 77 7% -10  6 - 4 -1 +1 D+ B- B+ -4 C- C C-
 Sat, Dec 20 192 Jacksonville St. L 75 - 81 75% -1  6 - 5 -11 +11 A+ D+ C- -23 F C- C+
 Tue, Dec 30 346 @The Citadel W 74 - 49 84% +13  7 - 5 1 - 0 +16 +5 C- B- D- +14 A D A+
 Sat, Jan 3 149 Mercer W 77 - 71 66% +1  8 - 5 2 - 0 +4 +4 F A+ C -0 C- A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 356 VMI W 81 - 67 95% +10  9 - 5 3 - 0 -3 +3 B D B- -5 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 312 UNC Greensboro W 86 - 60 90% +10  10 - 5 4 - 0 +14 +3 A- D- B- +11 A+ D+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 277 @Western Carolina L 68 - 72 70% +0  10 - 6 4 - 1 -7 -1 D F A+ -7 F C A-
 Sat, Jan 17 227 @Samford W 76 - 75 60% +5  11 - 6 5 - 1 +0 +13 B+ C B+ -13 F C+ D-
 Wed, Jan 21 276 @Chattanooga W 67 - 66 69% +2  12 - 6 6 - 1 -2 -5 F B+ C +2 D A- A+
 Fri, Jan 23 346 The Citadel W 84 - 55 93% +18  13 - 6 7 - 1 +14 +11 B+ A- B- +6 C+ A+ D-
 Thu, Jan 29 277 Western Carolina L 88 - 90 85% -9  13 - 7 7 - 2 -11 +10 C C A+ -22 F F D+
 Sun, Feb 1 201 @Wofford W 86 - 72 55% +5  14 - 7 8 - 2 +14 +18 D A+ A+ -2 C- D+ C
 Wed, Feb 4 164 Furman W 74 - 69 68%
 Sat, Feb 7 356 @VMI W 80 - 67 90%
 Wed, Feb 11 276 Chattanooga W 77 - 66 86%
 Sat, Feb 14 227 Samford W 79 - 70 79%
 Wed, Feb 18 164 @Furman L 71 - 72 47%
 Sat, Feb 21 312 @UNC Greensboro W 79 - 71 77%
 Wed, Feb 25 201 Wofford W 78 - 71 76%
 Sat, Feb 28 149 @Mercer L 77 - 79 44%
Totals 20 - 9 14 - 4 +2 +2 C C B- +0 D+ B- B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 11.1 27.0 21.0 6.5 66.5 1st
2nd 0.3 4.9 11.3 2.7 19.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 5.8 1.9 0.0 9.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 2.3 1.5 0.0 4.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.9 4.3 13.0 24.4 29.8 21.0 6.5 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 6.5    6.5
15-3 100.0% 21.0    20.2 0.8
14-4 90.8% 27.0    16.8 9.2 1.0
13-5 45.6% 11.1    2.3 5.4 3.1 0.3
12-6 6.3% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 66.5% 66.5 45.8 15.6 4.5 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 6.5% 42.5% 42.5% 12.7 0.0 1.0 1.6 0.2 3.7
15-3 21.0% 37.9% 37.9% 13.4 0.4 3.9 3.4 0.3 13.0
14-4 29.8% 35.1% 35.1% 13.8 0.2 2.7 6.2 1.4 0.0 19.3
13-5 24.4% 29.7% 29.7% 14.1 0.0 1.3 4.1 1.8 0.0 17.1
12-6 13.0% 23.7% 23.7% 14.3 0.3 1.6 1.1 0.1 10.0
11-7 4.3% 14.6% 14.6% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 3.7
10-8 0.9% 10.1% 10.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8
9-9 0.1% 0.0 0.1
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 32.2% 32.2% 0.0% 13.8 67.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.8% 100.0% 12.7 1.1 35.1 56.2 7.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7%