East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#142
Expected Predictive Rating-2.5#205
Pace66.6#263
Improvement-0.8#239

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#117
First Shot+3.8#77
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#281
Layup/Dunks+4.6#41
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#164
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#222
Freethrows+0.0#175
Improvement+2.6#27

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#197
First Shot-3.3#290
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#25
Layups/Dunks+2.6#86
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#109
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#347
Freethrows-1.6#290
Improvement-3.4#349
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.7% 30.7% 22.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.7
.500 or above 97.0% 97.9% 90.3%
.500 or above in Conference 96.3% 97.4% 88.5%
Conference Champion 42.2% 44.9% 23.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.8%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 1.3%
First Round29.4% 30.4% 22.2%
Second Round1.6% 1.7% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: The Citadel (Away) - 87.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 34 - 44 - 6
Quad 417 - 521 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 280 @Presbyterian L 64-68 67%     0 - 1 -7.2 -3.0 -4.6
  Wed, Nov 12 199 Northern Kentucky W 75-63 74%     1 - 1 +6.7 -2.4 +8.8
  Sat, Nov 15 246 @North Alabama W 78-74 62%     2 - 1 +2.1 +6.7 -4.5
  Fri, Nov 21 308 Morehead St. W 77-62 88%     3 - 1 +3.7 +5.7 -0.9
  Sun, Nov 23 359 Louisiana Monroe W 97-55 95%     4 - 1 +24.1 +15.9 +8.6
  Sat, Nov 29 288 Central Arkansas W 80-57 85%     5 - 1 +13.4 +2.8 +10.0
  Tue, Dec 2 68 @Dayton L 71-88 18%     5 - 2 -6.0 +1.0 -6.1
  Fri, Dec 5 190 South Alabama W 91-65 73%     6 - 2 +20.9 +18.6 +3.0
  Fri, Dec 12 194 @Austin Peay L 75-76 52%     6 - 3 -0.2 +5.7 -5.8
  Tue, Dec 16 22 @North Carolina L 58-77 7%     6 - 4 -0.7 +3.0 -6.6
  Sat, Dec 20 236 Jacksonville St. L 75-81 80%     6 - 5 -13.4 +10.0 -24.2
  Wed, Dec 31 354 @The Citadel W 78-66 88%    
  Sat, Jan 3 173 Mercer W 80-75 69%    
  Wed, Jan 7 331 VMI W 82-67 91%    
  Sat, Jan 10 292 UNC Greensboro W 80-69 86%    
  Wed, Jan 14 302 @Western Carolina W 79-73 71%    
  Sat, Jan 17 227 @Samford W 76-74 59%    
  Wed, Jan 21 253 @Chattanooga W 75-72 63%    
  Sat, Jan 24 354 The Citadel W 81-63 95%    
  Thu, Jan 29 302 Western Carolina W 82-70 86%    
  Sat, Jan 31 220 @Wofford W 74-72 58%    
  Wed, Feb 4 151 Furman W 75-71 63%    
  Sat, Feb 7 331 @VMI W 79-70 78%    
  Wed, Feb 11 253 Chattanooga W 78-69 80%    
  Sat, Feb 14 227 Samford W 79-71 78%    
  Wed, Feb 18 151 @Furman L 72-74 42%    
  Sat, Feb 21 292 @UNC Greensboro W 77-72 68%    
  Wed, Feb 25 220 Wofford W 77-69 76%    
  Sat, Feb 28 173 @Mercer L 77-78 48%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 5.2 10.2 11.9 8.7 4.1 1.0 42.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 6.2 8.7 6.1 1.9 0.2 24.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.9 5.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.0 3.6 1.0 0.1 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 1.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.9 6.8 10.7 14.2 16.3 16.6 13.8 8.9 4.1 1.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-1 100.0% 4.1    4.0 0.0
16-2 97.8% 8.7    8.0 0.7
15-3 86.5% 11.9    9.2 2.6 0.1
14-4 61.3% 10.2    5.8 3.9 0.5 0.0
13-5 31.6% 5.2    1.7 2.4 0.9 0.1
12-6 7.9% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 42.2% 42.2 29.9 10.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 60.1% 60.1% 11.8 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4
17-1 4.1% 51.4% 51.4% 12.9 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.0
16-2 8.9% 45.9% 45.9% 13.4 0.2 1.9 1.7 0.2 4.8
15-3 13.8% 40.0% 40.0% 13.9 0.1 1.4 3.1 0.9 0.0 8.3
14-4 16.6% 33.6% 33.6% 14.2 0.0 0.7 3.0 1.8 0.1 11.0
13-5 16.3% 28.4% 28.4% 14.5 0.3 1.8 2.3 0.3 11.7
12-6 14.2% 23.1% 23.1% 14.8 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.4 10.9
11-7 10.7% 18.3% 18.3% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.6 8.8
10-8 6.8% 15.4% 15.4% 15.5 0.1 0.4 0.6 5.7
9-9 3.9% 13.5% 13.5% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 3.4
8-10 2.1% 11.6% 11.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.9
7-11 1.0% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.1 0.9
6-12 0.4% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-13 0.2% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 29.7% 29.7% 0.0% 14.2 0.2 1.1 5.7 11.2 8.8 2.6 70.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 11.8 32.9 55.5 11.0 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%