East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#223
Expected Predictive Rating-7.8#297
Pace65.9#247
Improvement+1.0#69

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#262
First Shot-2.9#274
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#161
Layup/Dunks+0.1#167
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#55
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#318
Freethrows-1.4#286
Improvement+0.1#172

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#183
First Shot+0.1#171
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#224
Layups/Dunks+0.2#173
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#250
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#235
Freethrows+1.4#76
Improvement+0.8#60
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.6% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 37.4% 67.5% 27.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four2.6% 3.5% 2.3%
First Round1.6% 2.2% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Samford (Away) - 24.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 32 - 63 - 10
Quad 47 - 910 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 334   Elon W 77-64 76%     1 - 0 +2.7 -2.8 +5.1
  Nov 13, 2022 112   Louisiana L 77-81 27%     1 - 1 -0.5 +0.4 -0.7
  Nov 17, 2022 332   Arkansas Little Rock W 84-76 82%     2 - 1 -4.9 -5.9 +0.2
  Nov 20, 2022 303   @ Tennessee Tech L 62-69 58%     2 - 2 -12.0 -13.7 +1.6
  Nov 23, 2022 179   Appalachian St. L 70-74 50%     2 - 3 -7.0 -0.8 -6.3
  Nov 27, 2022 103   @ Georgia L 47-62 17%     2 - 4 -8.0 -18.6 +9.4
  Dec 03, 2022 257   Jacksonville St. L 61-63 68%     2 - 5 -9.8 -7.4 -2.7
  Dec 11, 2022 278   @ Morehead St. L 57-61 52%     2 - 6 -7.4 -8.2 +0.2
  Dec 14, 2022 221   Queens L 75-78 60%     2 - 7 -8.5 -0.7 -8.0
  Dec 17, 2022 188   UNC Asheville L 73-74 53%     2 - 8 -4.9 -2.0 -2.8
  Dec 21, 2022 106   @ LSU L 68-72 18%     2 - 9 +2.6 -1.0 +3.6
  Dec 29, 2022 215   @ Wofford W 73-71 37%     3 - 9 1 - 0 +2.5 +6.1 -3.4
  Dec 31, 2022 335   @ VMI W 64-50 68%     4 - 9 2 - 0 +6.3 -8.5 +16.1
  Jan 04, 2023 260   Western Carolina L 60-71 69%     4 - 10 2 - 1 -19.1 -13.6 -6.3
  Jan 07, 2023 87   Furman L 56-70 28%     4 - 11 2 - 2 -11.0 -15.5 +3.8
  Jan 11, 2023 301   @ The Citadel W 96-74 58%     5 - 11 3 - 2 +17.0 +15.0 +0.7
  Jan 14, 2023 228   Mercer L 55-68 61%     5 - 12 3 - 3 -18.9 -13.9 -6.5
  Jan 18, 2023 145   Samford L 59-69 44%     5 - 13 3 - 4 -11.4 -10.6 -2.1
  Jan 21, 2023 164   @ Chattanooga W 78-62 29%     6 - 13 4 - 4 +18.9 +1.7 +16.9
  Jan 25, 2023 228   @ Mercer L 67-71 OT 40%     6 - 14 4 - 5 -4.4 -11.2 +7.1
  Jan 28, 2023 164   Chattanooga L 64-73 48%     6 - 15 4 - 6 -11.5 -6.9 -5.6
  Feb 01, 2023 215   Wofford W 77-52 58%     7 - 15 5 - 6 +20.0 +16.2 +9.4
  Feb 04, 2023 145   @ Samford L 67-74 25%    
  Feb 07, 2023 138   @ UNC Greensboro L 58-65 24%    
  Feb 10, 2023 335   VMI W 75-65 84%    
  Feb 15, 2023 260   @ Western Carolina L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 19, 2023 87   @ Furman L 66-77 14%    
  Feb 22, 2023 301   The Citadel W 72-65 76%    
  Feb 25, 2023 138   UNC Greensboro L 60-62 44%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.1 2.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 10.8 8.3 1.2 0.0 22.2 4th
5th 0.5 12.0 11.4 1.2 0.0 25.1 5th
6th 0.0 5.3 14.4 2.0 0.0 21.7 6th
7th 0.9 11.3 3.9 0.0 16.3 7th
8th 0.1 3.5 5.0 0.2 8.8 8th
9th 0.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.8 6.9 22.6 32.3 24.3 10.5 2.4 0.2 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.2% 8.8% 8.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 2.4% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.2 2.2
10-8 10.5% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5 10.1
9-9 24.3% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.7 23.6
8-10 32.3% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.8 31.5
7-11 22.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.4 22.2
6-12 6.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 6.8
5-13 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.6 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 8.8% 15.9 1.0 7.8
Lose Out 0.8% 0.5% 16.0 0.5