East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +1.3 141
Expected Predictive Rating -0.6 172
Pace 65.6 262
Improvement -2.1 269

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 148 C C C+ B- C+
Defense C 149 C- B- B C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 47 C+ 59% 128 +3.6 60
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 126 B- 41% 85 +0.2 167
Three Pointers 37% 273 D+ 32% 279 -3.5 304
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.5 117 C -0.2 182
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 166
Second Chance D+ 26.6% 291 B+ 1.16 40 C 0.31 186
Turnovers C+ 15.8% 112
Freethrows C+ 0.32 138 B 77% 41 B- 0.25 98
Total Offense C +0.7 148

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 196 C- 60% 245 +0.7 205
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 340 B+ 33% 29 -2.9 6
Three Pointers 47% 33 D+ 35% 250 +4.1 338
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 297 C- +1.2 231
1st FG Attempt C- 1.06 240
Second Chance C+ 29.4% 137 B- 0.96 81 B- 0.28 89
Turnovers B 19.4% 50
Freethrows C+ 0.30 165 D+ 74% 297 C 0.22 192
Total Defense C +0.6 149

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.3 279 17.0 140
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 206 0.20 287
Improvement -1.1 #248 -1.0 #249

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32% 35% 30%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.8 14.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 89% 98% 82%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round32% 35% 30%
Second Round1% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Furman (Away) - 46.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 24 - 5
Quad 417 - 621 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 275 @Presbyterian L 64 - 68 68% -2  33% 0 - 1 D+ -8 D- -7 F A D- C -1 C F A
 Wed, Nov 12 203 Northern Kentucky W 75 - 63 74% +8  98% 1 - 1 B- +6 D -6 A F F A+ +12 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 339 @North Alabama W 78 - 74 83% -8  8% 2 - 1 D+ -5 C- -1 B F A- D+ -4 D F B
 Fri, Nov 21 288 Morehead St. W 77 - 62 86% +2  47% 3 - 1 C+ +5 C +0 F+ B- C+ B+ +6 D A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 355 Louisiana Monroe W 97 - 55 95% +20  97% 4 - 1 A+ +24 A +13 A A- B- A+ +12 A+ C C+
 Sat, Nov 29 185 Central Arkansas W 80 - 57 72% +10  84% 5 - 1 A +18 C +1 A F A+ A+ +17 A+ B- B-
 Tue, Dec 2 91 @Dayton L 71 - 88 24% -10  17% 5 - 2 D -8 C- -2 B C+ F D -6 F B- B+
 Fri, Dec 5 181 South Alabama W 91 - 65 71% +5  53% 6 - 2 A +22 A+ +16 C A+ A+ B+ +6 D- A+ B
 Fri, Dec 12 149 @Austin Peay L 75 - 76 42% -6  1% 6 - 3 C+ +2 C+ +2 C+ D B- C+ +0 D- A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 16 25 @North Carolina L 58 - 77 6% -10  3% 6 - 4 C -0 C- -1 D+ B- B+ C- -2 C- D+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 195 Jacksonville St. L 75 - 81 73% -1  45% 6 - 5 D -11 B+ +8 A+ D+ D+ F -20 F C- B-
 Tue, Dec 30 347 @The Citadel W 74 - 49 85% +13  88% 7 - 5 1 - 0 A- +15 C+ +2 D+ B- D- A+ +16 A- D A+
 Sat, Jan 3 165 Mercer W 77 - 71 68% +1  50% 8 - 5 2 - 0 C+ +3 C+ +3 F A+ C C +0 D A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 7 358 VMI W 81 - 67 96% +10  96% 9 - 5 3 - 0 D+ -5 C- -1 B- D B- C- -3 C- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 296 UNC Greensboro W 86 - 60 87% +10  88% 10 - 5 4 - 0 A- +15 C -0 A- F+ B A+ +15 A+ D A+
 Wed, Jan 14 261 @Western Carolina L 68 - 72 65% +0  44% 10 - 6 4 - 1 D+ -7 D+ -3 D F A+ D+ -4 F C A
 Sat, Jan 17 187 @Samford W 76 - 75 50% +5  96% 11 - 6 5 - 1 C+ +2 A +12 A- C B+ F -10 F B- D-
 Wed, Jan 21 293 @Chattanooga W 67 - 66 71% +2  72% 12 - 6 6 - 1 C- -3 D- -8 F B+ C- B +4 D- A A
 Fri, Jan 23 347 The Citadel W 84 - 55 93% +18  89% 13 - 6 7 - 1 B+ +13 B+ +9 B A- B A- +7 C A+ D-
 Thu, Jan 29 261 Western Carolina L 88 - 90 82% -9  0% 13 - 7 7 - 2 D -11 B+ +8 C+ C A+ F -18 F F D+
 Sun, Feb 1 223 @Wofford W 86 - 72 57% +5  90% 14 - 7 8 - 2 B+ +14 A +14 D- A+ A+ C+ +0 C- D C
 Wed, Feb 4 174 Furman W 75 - 71 OT 69% -5  10% 15 - 7 9 - 2 C +0 D -4 C+ F B B +4 F B+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 358 @VMI W 87 - 70 90% +10  91% 16 - 7 10 - 2 C+ +4 C+ +3 A- A- F C+ +1 D- C- C
 Wed, Feb 11 293 Chattanooga W 73 - 61 86% +4  82% 17 - 7 11 - 2 C +2 D+ -3 F D- A+ B+ +5 A- D+ C-
 Sat, Feb 14 187 Samford L 72 - 82 OT 72% -2  22% 17 - 8 11 - 3 F+ -15 F -12 F+ D+ D- C- -2 A F C
 Wed, Feb 18 174 @Furman L 70 - 71 47%
 Sat, Feb 21 296 @UNC Greensboro W 78 - 72 71%
 Wed, Feb 25 223 Wofford W 80 - 72 77%
 Sat, Feb 28 165 @Mercer L 75 - 76 45%
Totals 19 - 10 13 - 5 +1 C +1 B C C+ C +1 D+ B B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ B- D+ C 44% 42% 37% C+ C D+ B+ C C+ C+ B B- C C- B+ D+ C- 38% 15% 47% D C- C+ B- B- B C+ D+ C
1.10 59% 41% 32% 0 0 1.03 27% 1.2 .31 16% .32 77% .25 1.08 60% 33% 35% +1 +1 1.06 29% 1.0 .28 19% .30 74% .24
Nov
8		 Presbyterian D- D- A F F 38% 17% 45% C- F B A A D- A+ A A+ C B+ A+ F+ B- 45% 15% 40% F C D F F A F D- F
0.99 50% 50% 14% -14 0 0.74 36% 1.2 .44 19% .40 76% .30 1.05 50% 17% 38% -5 +1 0.95 37% 1.3 .47 25% .53 73% .39
Nov
12		 Northern Kentucky D B A+ A+ A 67% 12% 21% A+ A F F F F A+ C+ A+ A+ B- A- A- A- 38% 13% 49% C- B+ D A+ A+ A+ B- C B-
1.04 64% 60% 44% +10 +3 1.29 13% 0.7 .09 25% .50 70% .35 0.87 55% 29% 27% -8 +1 0.89 34% 0.4 .14 25% .26 71% .18
Nov
15		 North Alabama C- A+ A- C B+ 35% 18% 47% D B F F F A- D- F F D+ C+ A+ F+ D 41% 13% 46% D+ D D F F B F+ F F
1.14 74% 50% 35% +8 0 1.18 22% 0.6 .14 10% .23 57% .13 1.08 53% 17% 38% -2 +1 1.00 33% 1.4 .45 20% .39 81% .31
Nov
21		 Morehead St. C C+ A F F 56% 13% 31% B+ F+ B C B- C+ A+ B+ A+ B+ F+ C D+ F+ 31% 33% 36% B+ D C- A+ A+ A+ F B F
1.18 60% 50% 14% -6 +2 0.93 42% 0.9 .39 14% .59 76% .45 0.95 67% 38% 36% +4 -2 1.05 35% 0.5 .16 28% .51 71% .36
Nov
23		 Louisiana Monroe A A+ A- A+ A 43% 17% 40% C A C+ A A- B- F A+ D A+ C A+ A+ A+ 31% 20% 49% C+ A+ B D- C C+ B+ F+ B-
1.40 76% 50% 43% +15 +1 1.34 39% 1.4 .54 14% .17 80% .14 0.79 53% 20% 21% -15 -1 0.71 21% 1.1 .23 19% .25 79% .20
Nov
29		 Central Arkansas C A+ C+ A- A 35% 9% 56% B- A F D- F A+ D+ F F A+ A+ A+ A- A+ 17% 13% 70% B A+ A+ F B- B- A+ F+ A+
1.12 74% 40% 40% +11 +1 1.26 13% 1.0 .13 14% .26 50% .13 0.79 44% 14% 29% -11 -1 0.80 13% 1.8 .24 18% .14 75% .10
Dec
2		 Dayton C- B B- B- B 37% 24% 39% C B B+ D+ C+ F C- A+ B- D F F B- F 42% 16% 42% C+ F D- A+ B- B+ F D F
0.96 61% 42% 37% +4 -1 1.08 35% 0.9 .32 30% .29 80% .23 1.19 89% 43% 32% +13 +1 1.29 33% 0.9 .29 20% .59 80% .48
Dec
5		 South Alabama A+ C- F D+ C- 36% 7% 57% B C A- A+ A+ A+ F+ B D B+ A- A+ F D 46% 8% 46% F D- A A+ A+ B B A+ B+
1.33 59% 25% 31% -3 +2 1.00 39% 1.7 .66 12% .15 78% .12 0.95 48% 25% 43% +1 +2 1.08 17% 0.5 .08 16% .28 56% .16
Dec
12		 Austin Peay C+ B B+ C- C+ 41% 16% 43% B- C+ D D D B- D- A+ C- C+ C+ F D+ D 39% 12% 49% D- D- D A+ A+ C- C+ F D
1.07 65% 44% 33% +4 +1 1.11 26% 0.7 .18 17% .24 79% .19 1.09 55% 50% 36% +2 +1 1.08 32% 0.5 .16 16% .29 88% .25
Dec
16		 North Carolina C- C F F+ D 28% 26% 46% C D+ D- A+ B- B+ A C- A C- F B+ B- C 39% 7% 55% F+ C- B+ F D+ C- F B D
0.95 54% 25% 29% -8 -1 0.83 18% 1.5 .26 12% .30 69% .20 1.27 76% 33% 33% +6 +2 1.18 29% 1.4 .42 12% .43 65% .28
Dec
20		 Jacksonville St. B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 39% 21% 39% C- A+ F+ B+ D+ D+ A+ C+ A+ F D F F F 45% 5% 50% D F F A+ C- B- F C+ F
1.21 53% 50% 53% +12 0 1.26 21% 1.2 .25 18% .57 79% .45 1.31 61% 50% 55% +18 +2 1.43 42% 0.7 .31 19% .54 67% .36
Dec
30		 The Citadel C+ C- D B- D 51% 13% 36% B- D+ C+ B- B- D- A A+ A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A 24% 11% 64% C- A- D D+ D A+ C- A C+
1.17 61% 33% 38% +3 +2 1.11 35% 1.1 .38 17% .36 84% .31 0.78 64% 0% 24% -12 0 0.78 31% 1.0 .31 27% .28 62% .17
Jan
3		 Mercer C+ F A+ F F 58% 7% 35% A+ F A+ B+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ C F A- B- D+ 38% 13% 48% F+ D B- A+ A+ B+ C+ B B-
1.15 44% 67% 27% -10 +3 0.88 44% 1.1 .50 18% .49 85% .42 1.06 70% 29% 32% +2 +1 1.08 31% 0.5 .17 19% .32 71% .22
Jan
7		 VMI C- B+ A+ B- B- 43% 23% 34% C B- F A+ D B- B- A- B+ C- C D- A C- 42% 13% 44% D C- D+ A+ A+ F F A F
1.22 70% 55% 38% +11 0 1.23 21% 1.6 .33 15% .34 79% .27 1.01 55% 43% 26% -6 +1 0.92 28% 0.4 .10 9% .45 63% .28
Jan
10		 UNC Greensboro C A+ C+ D+ B+ 53% 17% 30% A- A- F A+ F+ B F B F A+ A- A+ B+ A+ 43% 18% 39% F+ A+ F B D A+ F F+ F
1.20 78% 40% 33% +11 +2 1.27 12% 2.0 .23 11% .13 75% .09 0.84 47% 0% 29% -14 +1 0.75 35% 0.9 .32 29% .49 76% .37
Jan
14		 Western Carolina D+ C F D+ F+ 44% 14% 42% B+ D C F F A+ A- D+ B+ D+ D+ F D F 36% 17% 47% C- F D B+ C A B F+ C+
1.08 59% 29% 33% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.5 .13 8% .40 74% .29 1.15 59% 63% 36% +6 0 1.15 39% 0.8 .32 22% .25 75% .18
Jan
17		 Samford A A+ C A+ A+ 31% 44% 24% F A- F A+ C B+ C+ A+ A F A- F F F 24% 16% 60% C+ F B+ D B- D- A+ F B+
1.26 79% 40% 45% +12 -4 1.18 17% 1.8 .30 10% .31 94% .30 1.25 50% 50% 43% +8 0 1.18 19% 1.2 .22 10% .24 85% .20
Jan
21		 Chattanooga D- D B+ F F 52% 13% 35% A- F C+ A B+ C- F C- F B C+ F D+ D+ 41% 6% 53% F D- C A+ A A B+ F C+
1.00 52% 43% 17% -12 +2 0.83 34% 1.4 .47 15% .19 73% .14 0.98 55% 67% 35% +1 +2 1.08 19% 0.5 .10 21% .21 91% .19
Jan
23		 The Citadel B+ A+ A B- B+ 37% 8% 55% C+ B D+ A+ A- B C+ C+ C+ A- A+ A+ F C 31% 16% 53% C C A+ B+ A+ D- C A+ A
1.31 78% 50% 37% +11 +1 1.27 30% 1.5 .44 12% .30 71% .21 0.86 40% 0% 42% -5 0 0.92 13% 0.8 .10 16% .28 40% .11
Jan
29		 Western Carolina B+ C+ A+ C C+ 40% 20% 40% C+ C+ D+ B- C A+ A+ B A+ F F A+ D- F 33% 15% 52% C F C- F F D+ F F+ F
1.29 60% 60% 35% +6 0 1.14 26% 1.1 .29 9% .56 80% .45 1.31 87% 14% 38% +9 0 1.20 35% 1.3 .45 16% .49 75% .37
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Wofford A D F D- F 59% 14% 27% B+ D- A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ B- F B+ C+ 58% 8% 34% F C- A F D C B- F C
1.32 52% 29% 31% -6 +2 0.94 38% 1.7 .66 9% .47 93% .44 1.11 52% 75% 29% -3 +3 1.02 20% 1.7 .33 15% .29 81% .24
Feb
4		 Furman D C- F A+ C+ 44% 25% 31% C C+ F F F B A+ C A B F F C+ F 45% 9% 47% D- F B+ B B+ A+ A A A
1.03 54% 29% 41% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.6 .14 12% .35 73% .25 0.98 76% 75% 32% +10 +2 1.26 25% 0.9 .21 29% .19 60% .12
Feb
7		 VMI C+ C- A+ A+ A+ 20% 31% 49% F A- C A+ A- F D A+ C C+ B F C- D 39% 6% 56% F D- A+ F C- C C+ B- C+
1.23 60% 67% 46% +18 -3 1.33 40% 1.3 .52 24% .26 86% .22 0.99 48% 67% 33% -3 +2 1.00 17% 1.5 .25 17% .27 69% .19
Feb
11		 Chattanooga D+ F F D- F 47% 17% 36% B- F F B- D- A+ A+ C A+ B+ A- A+ B+ A 37% 16% 47% D A- B+ F D+ C- B+ F B-
1.10 45% 25% 29% -11 +1 0.83 23% 1.2 .28 8% .57 74% .43 0.92 47% 25% 29% -9 +1 0.84 15% 1.6 .24 15% .21 83% .18
Feb
14		 Samford F F+ B F F 42% 24% 35% B F+ D- B+ D+ D- B+ B- B+ C- B A+ A A+ 36% 15% 49% D A B- F F C F F F
0.96 48% 46% 26% -6 0 0.89 21% 1.3 .26 16% .35 77% .27 1.09 53% 14% 26% -11 +1 0.81 21% 2.0 .42 13% .61 78% .48



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 7.4 34.4 34.8 12.9 89.4 1st
2nd 0.3 7.0 7.3 2nd
3rd 1.5 0.9 2.4 3rd
4th 0.8 0.8 4th
5th 0.2 0.2 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 2.7 15.3 34.4 34.8 12.9 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 12.9    12.9
14-4 100.0% 34.8    34.8
13-5 100.0% 34.4    22.5 11.2 0.7
12-6 48.2% 7.4    0.3 2.1 3.6 1.4 0.1
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 89.4% 89.4 70.5 13.3 4.2 1.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 12.9% 41.3% 41.3% 13.3 0.4 3.0 1.9 0.1 7.6
14-4 34.8% 35.0% 35.0% 13.9 0.1 2.8 7.4 2.0 0.0 22.6
13-5 34.4% 29.6% 29.6% 14.2 1.1 5.8 3.2 0.1 24.2
12-6 15.3% 25.7% 25.7% 14.4 0.3 2.0 1.5 0.1 11.4
11-7 2.7% 21.1% 21.1% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 2.1
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 32.2% 32.2% 0.0% 14.0 67.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.3% 100.0% 13.3 8.1 56.3 34.7 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.1%
Lose Out 1.1%