East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +1.8 #131
Expected Predictive Rating -1.4 #192
Pace 65.7 #281
Improvement +1.0 #133

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #124 C+ B C+ C B
Defense #160 D+ D+ B A- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #49 1.20 #129 +4.5 #49
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #232 0.83 #87 -0.2 #187
Three Pointers 37% #258 0.96 #240 -2.8 #272
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #143 +1.6 #144
Freethrows 19.1 #95 74% #129 14.2 #87
Second Chance 29.4% #224 1.15 #63 0.34 #136
Turnovers 16.7% #185
Total Offense +1.7 #124

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #284 1.27 #307 +0.2 #175
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #323 0.68 #86 +2.5 #30
Three Pointers 50% #18 1.06 #248 -5.7 #346
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #277 -3.1 #275
Freethrows 17.6 #197 78% #352 13.8 #262
Second Chance 30.9% #188 0.86 #20 0.26 #59
Turnovers 20.1% #33
Total Defense +0.1 #160

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #86 0.8% #244
Shot Type Make % Effect 1.4% #161 5.3% #276
Possession Length 18.1 #262 17.0 #155
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #169 0.19 #241
Improvement +1.3 #95 -0.3 #215

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.8% 34.3% 26.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 99.1% 99.4% 95.4%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.2% 94.4%
Conference Champion 60.8% 62.6% 37.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round33.7% 34.3% 26.5%
Second Round1.9% 1.9% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Home) - 92.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 44 - 6
Quad 418 - 421 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 274 @Presbyterian L 64-68 69%     -2.5   0 - 1 -7.4 -3.9 -3.9
  Wed, Nov 12 217 Northern Kentucky W 75-63 78%     8.0   1 - 1 +5.7 -2.8 +8.1
  Sat, Nov 15 288 @North Alabama W 78-74 72%     -7.5   2 - 1 -0.2 +6.8 -6.9
  Fri, Nov 21 305 Morehead St. W 77-62 88%     1.7   3 - 1 +3.9 +5.3 -0.3
  Sun, Nov 23 356 Louisiana Monroe W 97-55 95%     20.0   4 - 1 +25.2 +16.3 +9.4
  Sat, Nov 29 254 Central Arkansas W 80-57 83%     10.2   5 - 1 +14.6 +0.7 +13.3
  Tue, Dec 2 77 @Dayton L 71-88 21%     -9.8   5 - 2 -6.5 +1.6 -7.2
  Fri, Dec 5 197 South Alabama W 91-65 75%     5.4   6 - 2 +20.7 +18.8 +2.5
  Fri, Dec 12 205 @Austin Peay L 75-76 56%     -6.4   6 - 3 -0.8 +4.9 -5.7
  Tue, Dec 16 26 @North Carolina L 58-77 7%     -10.1   6 - 4 -1.0 +2.7 -6.5
  Sat, Dec 20 220 Jacksonville St. L 75-81 78%     -1.0   6 - 5 -12.3 +10.4 -23.5
  Tue, Dec 30 358 @The Citadel W 74-49 89%     12.5   7 - 5 1 - 0 +13.4 +1.1 +15.0
  Sat, Jan 3 173 Mercer W 77-71 71%     1.0   8 - 5 2 - 0 +1.9 +5.3 -3.1
  Wed, Jan 7 335 VMI W 82-66 93%    
  Sat, Jan 10 279 UNC Greensboro W 79-68 86%    
  Wed, Jan 14 285 @Western Carolina W 78-72 70%    
  Sat, Jan 17 227 @Samford W 74-72 59%    
  Wed, Jan 21 262 @Chattanooga W 75-70 67%    
  Sat, Jan 24 358 The Citadel W 81-62 96%    
  Thu, Jan 29 285 Western Carolina W 81-69 86%    
  Sat, Jan 31 221 @Wofford W 74-72 58%    
  Wed, Feb 4 156 Furman W 74-69 68%    
  Sat, Feb 7 335 @VMI W 79-69 81%    
  Wed, Feb 11 262 Chattanooga W 78-67 84%    
  Sat, Feb 14 227 Samford W 77-69 78%    
  Wed, Feb 18 156 @Furman L 71-72 46%    
  Sat, Feb 21 279 @UNC Greensboro W 76-71 69%    
  Wed, Feb 25 221 Wofford W 77-69 77%    
  Sat, Feb 28 173 @Mercer L 75-76 50%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 7.7 14.8 16.8 12.1 6.1 1.4 60.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 5.9 7.4 3.7 0.9 0.0 19.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.7 4.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 9.7 3rd
4th 0.3 1.9 2.4 0.6 0.0 5.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.2 7.9 12.4 16.2 18.6 17.7 12.1 6.1 1.4 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.4    1.4
17-1 100.0% 6.1    6.1 0.0
16-2 99.7% 12.1    11.7 0.3
15-3 95.1% 16.8    14.6 2.2 0.1
14-4 79.5% 14.8    9.6 4.7 0.5 0.0
13-5 47.3% 7.7    2.8 3.7 1.2 0.1
12-6 14.1% 1.7    0.3 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 60.8% 60.8 46.5 11.5 2.5 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.4% 60.5% 60.5% 12.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.6
17-1 6.1% 50.2% 50.2% 13.0 0.0 0.7 1.7 0.7 0.0 3.1
16-2 12.1% 45.7% 45.7% 13.5 0.0 0.3 2.4 2.5 0.3 6.6
15-3 17.7% 40.8% 40.8% 13.9 0.1 1.9 4.0 1.2 0.0 10.5
14-4 18.6% 35.2% 35.2% 14.2 0.0 0.9 3.6 2.0 0.1 12.1
13-5 16.2% 30.4% 30.4% 14.5 0.3 2.1 2.2 0.2 11.3
12-6 12.4% 25.8% 25.8% 14.8 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.4 9.2
11-7 7.9% 17.2% 17.2% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 6.6
10-8 4.2% 15.3% 15.3% 15.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 3.6
9-9 2.1% 13.1% 13.1% 15.6 0.1 0.2 1.8
8-10 0.8% 8.3% 8.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.8
7-11 0.2% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.1% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 33.8% 33.8% 0.0% 14.0 0.2 1.7 7.5 14.1 8.8 1.5 66.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 12.0 18.2 65.3 15.9 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%