Connecticut
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +19.6 9
Expected Predictive Rating +24.3 4
Pace 64.3 300
Improvement -6.4 357

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- 17 A A- C+ C B
Defense A 14 A B+ B D+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 112 A- 68% 17 +5.4 24
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 325 A 49% 8 -0.9 229
Three Pointers 45% 99 B 37% 70 +3.8 58
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.0 58 A- +7.1 13
1st FG Attempt A 1.19 13
Second Chance B+ 36.8% 29 B 1.13 50 A- 0.42 25
Turnovers C+ 16.0% 130
Freethrows C 0.31 170 C- 71% 225 C 0.22 179
Total Offense A- +10.1 17

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots A 67% 6 B 8.3% 46
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A 45% 12 B+ 2.2% 24
Three Pointers B- 88% 84 D+ 1.3% 290
Total A 71% 4 B 4.3% 41

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 135 A+ 45% 3 -4.1 52
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 69 B- 35% 79 +0.6 241
Three Pointers 36% 325 A- 29% 10 -5.6 4
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 114 A+ -8.7 3
1st FG Attempt A 0.84 4
Second Chance B+ 25.2% 26 B 0.92 44 B+ 0.23 23
Turnovers B 19.6% 42
Freethrows D+ 0.34 287 C+ 72% 132 D+ 0.24 272
Total Defense A +9.6 14

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A 34% 4 A+ 21.0% 6
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 68 C+ 6.2% 93
Three Pointers B- 81% 101 B 1.6% 59
Total A 44% 9 A+ 10.5% 5

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.1 256 17.8 269
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 136 0.09 10
Improvement -0.6 #216 -5.8 #360

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 18 11 8
Conference Record 15 - 5 17 - 3 18 - 2
Conference Finish 3 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed 4 3 1
NCAA Tourney Finish 2nd Round Sweet 16 Champ Game

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1% 1% 0%
#1 Seed 12% 17% 6%
Top 2 Seed 47% 59% 32%
Top 4 Seed 96% 99% 93%
Top 6 Seed 100% 100% 100%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 2.6 2.4 3.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 52% 66% 34%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round97% 98% 96%
Sweet Sixteen65% 67% 62%
Elite Eight33% 35% 29%
Final Four14% 15% 12%
Championship Game6% 6% 5%
National Champion2% 2% 2%

Next Game: Villanova (Away) - 56.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 35 - 3
Quad 1b4 - 09 - 3
Quad 29 - 118 - 4
Quad 36 - 024 - 5
Quad 45 - 029 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 325 New Haven W 79 - 55 99% +12  99% 1 - 0 B +10 B- +5 B- A- D A- +7 C- A+ D
 Fri, Nov 7 310 Umass Lowell W 110 - 47 99% +42  98% 2 - 0 A+ +51 A+ +22 A+ A+ C A+ +25 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 10 197 Columbia W 89 - 62 98% +16  89% 3 - 0 A +22 A+ +14 A+ B A A +9 A+ B+ D+
 Sat, Nov 15 21 BYU W 86 - 84 59% +9  87% 4 - 0 A +19 A +11 A+ A- F A- +8 B- D+ A
 Wed, Nov 19 3 Arizona L 67 - 71 45% -4  6% 4 - 1 A- +17 A- +10 A D+ A+ B+ +6 A+ F B-
 Sun, Nov 23 354 Bryant W 72 - 49 100% +14  98% 5 - 1 B- +6 D- -6 F C+ C+ A+ +14 A B A+
 Fri, Nov 28 5 Illinois W 74 - 61 37% +10  99% 6 - 1 A+ +36 A- +11 A+ B D A+ +26 A+ A+ B
 Tue, Dec 2 15 @Kansas W 61 - 56 41% -2  29% 7 - 1 A+ +27 B- +5 B- A+ F A+ +22 A+ A+ B-
 Fri, Dec 5 304 East Texas A&M W 83 - 59 99% +13  95% 8 - 1 B+ +13 A- +11 B- C+ A+ B +3 D+ A- B-
 Tue, Dec 9 4 Florida W 77 - 73 36% +2  73% 9 - 1 A+ +27 A+ +17 A+ B+ A- A +11 B A+ B
 Fri, Dec 12 27 Texas W 71 - 63 76% +6  93% 10 - 1 A +20 C +1 A+ B F A+ +19 A+ A B+
 Tue, Dec 16 78 Butler W 79 - 60 91% +10  75% 11 - 1 1 - 0 A+ +24 B- +4 B A+ F A+ +19 A+ A C
 Sun, Dec 21 93 @DePaul W 72 - 54 84% +5  67% 12 - 1 2 - 0 A+ +27 B- +5 B- A D A+ +22 A+ A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 31 82 @Xavier W 90 - 67 82% +18  97% 13 - 1 3 - 0 A+ +33 A+ +16 A+ A D+ A+ +16 A A+ B+
 Sun, Jan 4 87 Marquette W 73 - 57 93% +11  96% 14 - 1 4 - 0 A +19 C +1 D+ B- A A+ +19 A+ A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 64 @Providence W 103 - 98 OT 77% -5  16% 15 - 1 5 - 0 A- +17 A +13 A+ C- C B- +3 D+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 10 93 DePaul W 72 - 60 93% +11  98% 16 - 1 6 - 0 A- +15 B +7 A D D A +9 C+ A A+
 Tue, Jan 13 56 @Seton Hall W 69 - 64 74% +7  74% 17 - 1 7 - 0 A +18 A- +11 A- A+ D- A- +8 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 74 @Georgetown W 64 - 62 80% +4  80% 18 - 1 8 - 0 B+ +13 B- +4 D- B+ A+ A +9 A- F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 31 Villanova W 75 - 67 OT 77% -2  17% 19 - 1 9 - 0 A +20 A- +11 C- A+ A+ A +9 A+ F B
 Tue, Jan 27 64 Providence W 87 - 81 90% +4  91% 20 - 1 10 - 0 B+ +12 B+ +8 B+ B C+ B +4 A- B C+
 Sat, Jan 31 60 @Creighton W 85 - 58 76% +11  94% 21 - 1 11 - 0 A+ +39 A+ +29 A+ A+ B A+ +15 A+ B- B
 Tue, Feb 3 82 Xavier W 92 - 60 92% +23  97% 22 - 1 12 - 0 A+ +36 A+ +20 A+ C- D+ A+ +17 A+ A A+
 Fri, Feb 6 20 @St. John's L 72 - 81 46% -3  20% 22 - 2 12 - 1 B+ +12 B+ +9 A+ B- C- B- +2 C+ F+ C+
 Wed, Feb 11 78 @Butler W 80 - 70 81% +3  67% 23 - 2 13 - 1 A +21 A+ +21 A A+ A C+ +1 C- A C-
 Sat, Feb 14 74 Georgetown W 79 - 75 91% +7  96% 24 - 2 14 - 1 B +9 A- +10 A A- B- C -1 F+ B B+
 Wed, Feb 18 60 Creighton L 84 - 91 89% -2  26% 24 - 3 14 - 2 C -1 B- +4 C+ D A+ D+ -4 C B+ F+
 Sat, Feb 21 31 @Villanova W 70 - 68 57%
 Wed, Feb 25 20 St. John's W 76 - 71 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 56 Seton Hall W 72 - 59 88%
 Sat, Mar 7 87 @Marquette W 78 - 68 83%
Totals 27 - 4 17 - 3 +20 A- +10 A+ A- B A +10 B C- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- A- A B A- 41% 24% 45% B A B+ B A- C+ C C- C A A+ B- A- A+ 40% 24% 36% C+ A B+ B B+ B D+ C+ D+
1.23 68% 49% 37% +7 +1 1.19 37% 1.1 .42 16% .31 71% .22 0.95 45% 35% 29% -9 0 0.84 25% 0.9 .23 20% .34 72% .22
Nov
3		 New Haven B- D+ A+ B- C 47% 6% 47% A- B- B A- A- D A A+ A+ A- C F A+ D+ 39% 33% 29% B+ C- A+ A+ A+ D C A+ A
1.19 55% 67% 36% +2 +2 1.11 32% 1.3 .42 18% .37 85% .31 0.83 58% 50% 21% -2 -2 0.96 12% 0.5 .06 17% .25 43% .11
Nov
7		 Umass Lowell A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ 61% 7% 32% A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ C A- B- A- A+ A+ A+ B- A+ 43% 26% 31% B- A+ A+ A- A+ A+ F F F
1.47 74% 75% 39% +15 +3 1.39 52% 1.1 .55 13% .34 77% .26 0.63 22% 0% 31% -27 0 0.48 21% 0.9 .18 28% .59 72% .43
Nov
10		 Columbia A+ A A A A+ 47% 8% 45% A A+ D A+ B A A+ F A+ A B D A+ A+ 40% 26% 34% A- A+ A- C+ B+ D+ F D F
1.34 70% 50% 41% +11 +2 1.29 25% 1.4 .36 9% .48 66% .31 0.93 53% 42% 19% -9 0 0.83 29% 0.9 .26 20% .37 75% .28
Nov
15		 BYU A A B+ A+ A+ 50% 15% 35% A+ A+ C+ A+ A- F A+ D+ A+ A- B- F B+ B+ 41% 12% 47% F B- B F D+ A D- D+ D-
1.16 70% 43% 50% +15 +2 1.35 28% 1.4 .40 22% .46 67% .31 1.13 60% 67% 30% +2 +1 1.08 33% 1.4 .47 19% .38 78% .30
Nov
19		 Arizona A- A+ A C A+ 19% 33% 48% D+ A D- C+ D+ A+ A- F C- B+ B+ A- A+ A+ 47% 33% 20% B- A+ D+ F F B- F D+ F
1.06 70% 47% 32% +4 -3 1.04 17% 0.8 .14 8% .31 50% .15 1.12 57% 33% 11% -9 -1 0.82 43% 1.2 .53 16% .47 76% .36
Nov
23		 Bryant D- D+ F F F 59% 6% 35% A F A F+ C+ C+ A B A A+ A+ A+ B- A 24% 14% 62% B A A+ F B A+ F F F
1.10 53% 0% 28% -8 +3 0.92 45% 0.8 .38 12% .38 77% .30 0.75 22% 20% 30% -14 0 0.73 17% 1.2 .21 32% .47 95% .45
Nov
28		 Illinois A- C+ A+ B- A 35% 15% 50% A+ A+ A+ D B D A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 44% 8% 48% D- A+ A+ A+ A+ B C- F F+
1.12 56% 63% 35% +3 0 1.10 36% 0.8 .28 15% .30 71% .21 0.92 43% 50% 20% -16 +2 0.75 31% 0.7 .21 15% .32 94% .30
Dec
2		 Kansas B- A+ C- F B 26% 26% 49% D+ B- B+ A+ A+ F D- A+ D+ A+ A- A- A+ A+ 33% 31% 36% A- A+ A A+ A+ B- F A- D
0.98 75% 33% 22% -6 -2 0.87 32% 1.3 .41 21% .16 75% .12 0.90 53% 29% 25% -9 -2 0.80 25% 0.6 .14 16% .40 71% .29
Dec
5		 East Texas A&M A- A F F C+ 60% 15% 25% B+ B- B+ D C+ A+ F A D B C B- D D 29% 25% 46% A D+ B- A+ A- B- C+ F C-
1.26 70% 25% 29% +3 +2 1.13 38% 1.0 .38 9% .23 79% .18 0.90 57% 33% 36% 0 -1 1.00 21% 0.6 .12 20% .23 75% .17
Dec
9		 Florida A+ A A A+ A+ 37% 29% 33% C+ A+ C+ A+ B+ A- C C C A A- F B- A- 64% 9% 28% F B C A+ A+ B F C+ F
1.14 63% 47% 41% +8 -1 1.16 23% 1.0 .23 13% .27 69% .19 1.08 53% 50% 31% -3 +3 1.02 43% 0.4 .16 18% .48 70% .34
Dec
12		 Texas C A+ A B+ A+ 43% 28% 28% C+ A+ B B- B F F F F A+ A+ B+ A A+ 44% 31% 24% B+ A+ C+ A+ A B+ F A D-
1.07 75% 46% 38% +12 -1 1.24 28% 1.0 .28 23% .25 54% .14 0.95 40% 36% 27% -11 -1 0.78 37% 1.0 .37 18% .52 68% .35
Dec
16		 Butler B- A- F B+ B 49% 20% 31% B B A+ A+ A+ F C+ F C- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 51% 6% 43% F A+ A C+ A C D F F+
1.13 68% 20% 38% +3 +1 1.10 47% 1.2 .56 21% .24 62% .15 0.86 35% 0% 23% -21 +3 0.65 27% 1.1 .30 14% .40 79% .32
Dec
21		 DePaul B- A+ F+ C B 35% 28% 37% C- B- A A- A D C- B C A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 41% 35% 24% A A+ B+ A+ A+ B- D- A+ B
1.05 69% 31% 35% +2 -1 1.04 38% 1.1 .41 22% .30 75% .23 0.79 35% 47% 25% -10 -2 0.80 26% 0.6 .15 19% .38 52% .20
Dec
31		 Xavier A+ C+ B+ A+ A+ 36% 16% 47% B- A+ B+ A A D+ D A+ C A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 28% 34% C A A+ A A+ B+ F B F+
1.24 60% 44% 50% +13 0 1.29 32% 1.1 .35 19% .24 79% .19 0.92 70% 27% 22% -5 -1 0.91 14% 0.8 .11 15% .36 68% .24
Jan
4		 Marquette C A- D+ F D 42% 18% 40% B- D+ A D+ B- A A F B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 55% 4% 42% D- A+ B A+ A+ B- D+ A- C
1.07 67% 33% 20% -6 +1 0.92 40% 0.9 .36 16% .37 67% .24 0.83 41% 0% 23% -18 +3 0.74 27% 0.7 .18 16% .33 63% .21
Jan
7		 Providence A C C A+ A+ 29% 26% 45% D+ A+ C- C C- C C- A+ C+ B- A- A F D+ 44% 18% 39% C D+ B+ F+ C A+ F+ B D
1.25 56% 38% 57% +15 -1 1.29 27% 1.0 .27 15% .25 83% .21 1.19 52% 30% 55% +8 +1 1.19 30% 1.3 .39 21% .41 74% .30
Jan
10		 DePaul B B+ B B A- 55% 16% 30% A+ A C+ F D D A- A+ A+ A B- F A C 39% 34% 27% A C+ A+ C A A+ C- C C-
1.12 63% 43% 38% +5 +2 1.16 30% 0.6 .19 22% .38 84% .32 0.93 56% 50% 27% +1 -2 1.00 21% 1.2 .25 23% .34 71% .24
Jan
13		 Seton Hall A- A A+ F A- 51% 11% 38% A A- A+ A- A+ D- A+ F A+ A- D- F A+ A+ 40% 30% 30% A- A+ F B- F A+ F A+ F+
1.07 63% 75% 21% -1 +2 1.05 43% 1.1 .47 26% .55 62% .34 0.99 65% 46% 0% -10 -1 0.79 49% 1.0 .46 22% .49 60% .30
Jan
17		 Georgetown B- F A+ F F+ 31% 20% 49% B- D- A C- B+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A A C+ D+ B+ 33% 36% 31% A+ A- F C F A+ A+ D+ A+
1.08 43% 78% 18% -8 0 0.84 39% 0.9 .37 10% .45 71% .32 1.04 47% 38% 36% -3 -2 0.91 45% 1.1 .52 22% .19 78% .15
Jan
24		 Villanova A- D+ F A C- 35% 24% 41% C C- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ A A+ A+ B+ A+ 29% 25% 45% A A+ D+ F F B F F+ F
1.16 53% 17% 40% -3 -1 0.94 41% 1.2 .49 14% .40 77% .31 1.04 33% 23% 30% -13 -1 0.73 38% 1.4 .52 17% .41 77% .32
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Providence B+ A- F A- B+ 39% 22% 39% C+ B+ A- D+ B C+ A+ F A+ B A F C- A 57% 13% 30% F+ A- A- D+ B C+ F C F
1.21 65% 27% 40% +4 0 1.10 37% 0.9 .34 14% .45 64% .29 1.12 50% 50% 36% -2 +2 1.02 29% 1.2 .35 15% .51 77% .39
Jan
31		 Creighton A+ F A+ A+ A+ 27% 22% 51% C A+ A+ A+ A+ B F F F A+ B F A+ A+ 34% 20% 46% C+ A+ A+ F B- B F B F
1.43 43% 55% 46% +9 -1 1.18 42% 1.8 .74 13% .14 43% .06 0.98 57% 50% 21% -7 0 0.88 20% 1.3 .27 17% .49 71% .34
Feb
3		 Xavier A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 12% 40% A A+ A+ F C- D+ B+ A A- A+ B A+ D A+ 26% 36% 38% A A+ A- A+ A A+ F A F
1.34 83% 50% 45% +20 +2 1.46 43% 0.5 .21 19% .32 78% .25 0.88 55% 20% 38% -5 -3 0.86 22% 0.8 .16 19% .51 64% .32
Feb
6		 St. John's B+ C A+ A+ A+ 53% 11% 36% A+ A+ F+ A+ B- C- D- F F B- B- F A C+ 48% 13% 39% C- C+ A F F+ C+ F B- F
1.05 52% 80% 47% +8 +2 1.23 21% 1.5 .31 22% .22 42% .09 1.18 55% 67% 28% -2 +2 1.02 31% 1.8 .55 15% .53 71% .37
Feb
11		 Butler A+ F A+ A+ A+ 20% 24% 56% F+ A A+ A+ A+ A D- A D+ C+ B C F C 52% 11% 37% D- C- A B A C- B+ D B-
1.32 40% 67% 43% +11 -2 1.20 40% 1.3 .53 13% .17 78% .13 1.16 54% 40% 41% +2 +2 1.11 28% 1.0 .28 13% .31 75% .23
Feb
14		 Georgetown A- A+ A+ D- A 23% 9% 68% B+ A B A A- B- A+ C- A+ C B- A F F 28% 15% 57% C- F+ B- B+ B B+ F A+ C-
1.21 90% 75% 30% +7 0 1.16 33% 1.2 .40 15% .45 72% .32 1.15 54% 29% 46% +8 0 1.17 31% 1.0 .31 17% .42 65% .28
Feb
18		 Creighton B- B- C+ D+ C+ 31% 25% 44% C C+ F A D A+ B F C+ D+ A+ F F C+ 43% 18% 39% D+ C A+ F B+ F+ F F F
1.11 60% 38% 32% -1 -1 0.98 18% 1.3 .22 7% .26 61% .16 1.21 45% 56% 45% +4 +1 1.12 13% 1.8 .23 11% .47 84% .40



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.5 21.6 29.4 52.5 1st
2nd 0.0 2.0 18.8 21.5 42.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.0 1.9 5.2 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.4 4.9 22.2 43.1 29.4 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 29.4    18.7 10.7
17-3 50.1% 21.6    5.4 14.5 1.8
16-4 6.7% 1.5    0.0 0.6 0.8
15-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 52.5% 52.5 24.1 25.8 2.6



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 29.4% 100.0% 50.8% 49.2% 2.0 7.4 14.8 6.3 0.9 0.0 100.0%
17-3 43.1% 100.0% 43.8% 56.2% 2.6 3.9 16.1 17.1 5.5 0.5 0.0 100.0%
16-4 22.2% 100.0% 40.5% 59.5% 3.2 0.6 4.3 9.4 6.2 1.5 0.1 100.0%
15-5 4.9% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 3.9 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.4% 100.0% 28.8% 71.2% 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 44.6% 55.5% 2.6 100.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 14.9% 100.0% 1.8 35.4 53.6 10.8 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.9% 100.0% 2.2 15.7 50.8 29.2 4.3 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.6% 100.0% 2.4 13.7 43.9 35.7 6.5 0.1
Lose Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.9 8.3 20.8 41.7 29.2