Connecticut
Big East
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.2#26
Expected Predictive Rating+15.6#20
Pace69.1#188
Improvement-3.3#349

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#26
First Shot+4.2#61
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#37
Layup/Dunks+4.7#43
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#285
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#172
Freethrows+1.8#76
Improvement-0.8#264

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#40
First Shot+5.3#36
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#128
Layups/Dunks+1.8#115
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#78
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#60
Freethrows-1.5#270
Improvement-2.5#344
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 3.3%
#1 Seed 3.0% 3.0% 3.3%
Top 2 Seed 8.2% 8.3% 6.9%
Top 4 Seed 26.7% 26.8% 10.5%
Top 6 Seed 49.4% 49.5% 23.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.8% 86.9% 78.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84.2% 84.3% 75.1%
Average Seed 6.1 6.1 7.7
.500 or above 98.1% 98.1% 95.7%
.500 or above in Conference 89.1% 89.1% 91.8%
Conference Champion 18.6% 18.6% 13.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.5% 3.6%
First Four3.4% 3.4% 6.6%
First Round85.1% 85.1% 71.8%
Second Round56.5% 56.6% 37.7%
Sweet Sixteen27.1% 27.1% 20.3%
Elite Eight11.9% 11.9% 6.9%
Final Four5.1% 5.1% 0.3%
Championship Game1.8% 1.8% 0.3%
National Champion0.8% 0.8% 0.0%

Next Game: Grambling St. (Home) - 99.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 7
Quad 27 - 213 - 9
Quad 34 - 017 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 348   Central Connecticut St. W 99-48 99%     1 - 0 +33.8 +12.6 +19.1
  Nov 13, 2021 307   Coppin St. W 89-54 98%     2 - 0 +23.9 +5.4 +15.4
  Nov 17, 2021 276   LIU Brooklyn W 93-40 97%     3 - 0 +43.8 +9.3 +30.2
  Nov 20, 2021 323   Binghamton W 87-63 98%     4 - 0 +11.7 +9.7 +2.6
  Nov 24, 2021 21   Auburn W 115-109 2OT 47%     5 - 0 +19.9 +17.0 +1.3
  Nov 25, 2021 22   Michigan St. L 60-64 48%     5 - 1 +9.8 -3.2 +13.0
  Nov 26, 2021 85   Virginia Commonwealth W 70-63 OT 74%     6 - 1 +13.5 +3.1 +9.9
  Nov 30, 2021 341   Maryland Eastern Shore W 72-63 99%     7 - 1 -7.0 +3.2 -9.0
  Dec 04, 2021 324   Grambling St. W 83-57 99%    
  Dec 08, 2021 45   @ West Virginia W 71-70 51%    
  Dec 11, 2021 39   St. Bonaventure W 69-66 61%    
  Dec 18, 2021 54   Providence W 74-66 77%    
  Dec 21, 2021 62   @ Marquette W 78-75 62%    
  Dec 28, 2021 37   @ Xavier L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 01, 2022 103   Butler W 71-59 87%    
  Jan 08, 2022 28   @ Seton Hall L 70-73 41%    
  Jan 12, 2022 61   St. John's W 82-73 78%    
  Jan 15, 2022 54   @ Providence W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 20, 2022 103   @ Butler W 68-62 70%    
  Jan 25, 2022 128   Georgetown W 81-67 89%    
  Jan 29, 2022 86   @ DePaul W 77-73 65%    
  Feb 01, 2022 66   Creighton W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 05, 2022 6   @ Villanova L 66-73 25%    
  Feb 08, 2022 62   Marquette W 81-72 78%    
  Feb 13, 2022 61   @ St. John's W 79-76 59%    
  Feb 16, 2022 28   Seton Hall W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 19, 2022 37   Xavier W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 22, 2022 6   Villanova L 69-70 45%    
  Feb 27, 2022 128   @ Georgetown W 78-70 76%    
  Mar 02, 2022 66   @ Creighton W 73-70 61%    
  Mar 05, 2022 86   DePaul W 80-70 80%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.4 1.3 3.0 4.9 4.5 3.1 1.1 0.2 18.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.3 7.1 7.1 4.2 1.1 0.1 24.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.1 4.9 6.9 4.9 1.5 0.2 19.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.2 4.8 2.9 0.5 0.0 13.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 2.9 3.6 1.4 0.2 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.6 1.0 0.1 6.1 6th
7th 0.2 0.9 1.8 0.8 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 2.7 8th
9th 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.6 4.8 7.6 9.9 12.0 14.6 13.8 11.7 9.4 5.6 3.2 1.1 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
18-2 97.2% 3.1    2.9 0.3
17-3 80.8% 4.5    3.3 1.2 0.0
16-4 52.7% 4.9    2.9 1.8 0.2
15-5 26.0% 3.0    1.3 1.3 0.3 0.0
14-6 9.1% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.5% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.6% 18.6 12.0 5.4 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 62.2% 37.8% 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.1% 100.0% 37.5% 62.5% 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 100.0%
18-2 3.2% 100.0% 41.4% 58.6% 2.0 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.1 100.0%
17-3 5.6% 100.0% 34.7% 65.3% 2.7 0.7 1.8 2.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 9.4% 100.0% 26.1% 73.9% 3.6 0.5 1.2 3.0 2.7 1.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 11.7% 100.0% 21.7% 78.3% 4.7 0.1 0.4 1.9 3.1 3.0 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 13.8% 99.8% 16.9% 82.9% 5.7 0.0 0.8 2.2 3.3 3.9 2.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 14.6% 99.4% 14.2% 85.1% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.5 3.5 2.5 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.3%
12-8 12.0% 95.9% 13.4% 82.5% 7.8 0.1 0.9 1.4 2.9 2.4 1.8 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.5 95.2%
11-9 9.9% 85.7% 9.3% 76.4% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.2 0.2 1.4 84.2%
10-10 7.6% 67.0% 6.9% 60.2% 9.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.3 2.5 64.6%
9-11 4.8% 39.0% 4.9% 34.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 3.0 35.8%
8-12 2.6% 13.8% 1.8% 12.1% 11.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.3 12.3%
7-13 1.8% 1.5% 0.3% 1.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.1%
6-14 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 1.1
5-15 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 12.0 0.0 0.5
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 86.8% 16.5% 70.3% 6.1 3.0 5.2 8.8 9.6 10.8 11.9 10.9 9.0 6.9 5.5 4.0 1.2 13.2 84.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 95.7 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 95.2 4.8