Connecticut
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.8#28
Expected Predictive Rating+14.4#36
Pace62.7#323
Improvement-0.1#197

Offense
Total Offense+10.6#11
First Shot+9.4#9
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#113
Layup/Dunks+5.4#25
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#343
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#28
Freethrows+1.4#93
Improvement-3.4#327

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#65
First Shot+1.5#123
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#14
Layups/Dunks+0.4#154
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#102
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#77
Freethrows-2.4#334
Improvement+3.3#26
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.1% 1.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 9.0% 10.0% 2.0%
Top 6 Seed 34.9% 37.3% 17.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.2% 98.5% 95.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.8% 98.1% 95.2%
Average Seed 6.9 6.8 7.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 7.4% 8.3% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 1.3%
First Round98.0% 98.3% 95.6%
Second Round62.4% 63.4% 55.3%
Sweet Sixteen23.2% 24.0% 16.8%
Elite Eight8.8% 9.3% 5.9%
Final Four2.9% 3.1% 2.0%
Championship Game1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

Next Game: Seton Hall (Away) - 87.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 24 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 47 - 6
Quad 26 - 313 - 9
Quad 34 - 117 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 271   Sacred Heart W 92-56 98%     1 - 0 +27.3 +9.9 +16.1
  Nov 09, 2024 354   New Hampshire W 92-53 99%     2 - 0 +23.2 +13.2 +10.2
  Nov 13, 2024 356   Le Moyne W 90-49 99%     3 - 0 +24.7 +17.6 +12.0
  Nov 19, 2024 340   Texas A&M - Commerce W 81-46 99%     4 - 0 +20.9 +0.3 +19.6
  Nov 25, 2024 47   Memphis L 97-99 OT 63%     4 - 1 +9.4 +24.7 -15.2
  Nov 26, 2024 100   Colorado L 72-73 83%     4 - 2 +3.8 +13.2 -9.5
  Nov 27, 2024 74   Dayton L 67-85 76%     4 - 3 -10.6 +1.0 -13.0
  Nov 30, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 99-45 99.6%    5 - 3 +33.9 +19.1 +15.7
  Dec 04, 2024 22   Baylor W 76-72 57%     6 - 3 +17.1 +18.9 -1.2
  Dec 08, 2024 36   @ Texas W 76-65 49%     7 - 3 +26.0 +18.1 +9.1
  Dec 14, 2024 11   Gonzaga W 77-71 39%     8 - 3 +23.7 +12.0 +11.9
  Dec 18, 2024 46   Xavier W 94-89 OT 71%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +14.0 +23.4 -9.5
  Dec 21, 2024 66   @ Butler W 78-74 66%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +14.7 +10.0 +4.8
  Jan 01, 2025 115   @ DePaul W 81-68 81%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +18.5 +15.7 +3.5
  Jan 05, 2025 77   Providence W 87-84 83%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +7.9 +21.1 -13.0
  Jan 08, 2025 40   @ Villanova L 66-68 52%     12 - 4 4 - 1 +12.4 +10.4 +1.6
  Jan 11, 2025 78   @ Georgetown W 68-60 69%     13 - 4 5 - 1 +17.7 +8.1 +10.2
  Jan 18, 2025 29   Creighton L 63-68 60%     13 - 5 5 - 2 +7.3 +9.5 -3.2
  Jan 21, 2025 66   Butler W 80-78 OT 81%     14 - 5 6 - 2 +7.7 +8.4 -0.6
  Jan 25, 2025 46   @ Xavier L 72-76 53%     14 - 6 6 - 3 +10.0 +9.4 +0.4
  Jan 29, 2025 115   DePaul W 72-61 90%     15 - 6 7 - 3 +11.6 +7.7 +5.1
  Feb 01, 2025 24   @ Marquette W 77-69 39%     16 - 6 8 - 3 +25.7 +18.5 +7.7
  Feb 07, 2025 13   St. John's L 62-68 49%     16 - 7 8 - 4 +8.9 +1.7 +7.1
  Feb 11, 2025 29   @ Creighton W 70-66 41%     17 - 7 9 - 4 +21.2 +9.7 +11.7
  Feb 15, 2025 174   @ Seton Hall W 73-60 88%    
  Feb 18, 2025 40   Villanova W 73-68 71%    
  Feb 23, 2025 13   @ St. John's L 68-73 30%    
  Feb 26, 2025 78   Georgetown W 74-64 85%    
  Mar 01, 2025 77   @ Providence W 75-70 67%    
  Mar 05, 2025 24   Marquette W 74-72 59%    
  Mar 08, 2025 174   Seton Hall W 76-58 96%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.3 5.1 7.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 5.1 16.0 2.0 23.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 5.9 20.8 8.2 35.0 3rd
4th 0.4 5.4 15.2 7.9 0.1 29.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 2.9 0.6 4.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.7 8.7 22.0 33.8 26.6 7.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 72.0% 5.1    1.1 3.0 1.0
15-5 8.5% 2.3    0.1 0.7 1.1 0.4
14-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.4% 7.4 1.2 3.6 2.1 0.5



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 7.0% 100.0% 24.5% 75.5% 4.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 26.6% 99.8% 22.1% 77.7% 5.9 0.1 1.1 3.1 5.2 7.4 6.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-6 33.8% 99.1% 17.2% 81.9% 7.2 0.1 0.5 2.4 6.0 10.5 9.6 3.9 0.6 0.0 0.3 98.9%
13-7 22.0% 97.3% 12.7% 84.6% 7.9 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.7 7.9 5.0 1.4 0.1 0.6 96.9%
12-8 8.7% 92.6% 9.2% 83.4% 8.7 0.1 0.8 2.7 2.6 1.5 0.3 0.6 91.9%
11-9 1.7% 90.6% 11.8% 78.8% 9.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2 89.3%
10-10 0.2% 66.7% 66.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 66.7%
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.2% 17.2% 81.0% 6.9 0.2 0.9 2.7 5.3 9.6 16.3 23.0 23.3 12.3 4.1 0.6 1.9 97.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 100.0% 2.5 12.2 38.4 40.7 6.4 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.6% 100.0% 4.1 5.5 26.8 30.5 25.6 11.0 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.1% 100.0% 4.6 0.5 1.4 13.6 31.9 34.3 15.5 2.8