Connecticut
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+20.0#3
Expected Predictive Rating+0.1#184
Pace64.7#299
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+11.8#2
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.1#10
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.7% 6.7% 3.3%
#1 Seed 24.5% 24.6% 8.3%
Top 2 Seed 44.1% 44.2% 18.2%
Top 4 Seed 69.8% 70.0% 40.9%
Top 6 Seed 84.1% 84.3% 55.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.2% 97.2% 89.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.2% 95.3% 85.5%
Average Seed 3.5 3.5 5.3
.500 or above 99.4% 99.4% 96.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 98.6% 96.7%
Conference Champion 55.7% 55.8% 34.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 3.3%
First Round96.7% 96.8% 87.8%
Second Round86.5% 86.7% 63.0%
Sweet Sixteen59.8% 60.0% 33.1%
Elite Eight36.8% 36.9% 14.4%
Final Four21.6% 21.7% 6.6%
Championship Game12.5% 12.5% 4.4%
National Champion6.8% 6.8% 3.3%

Next Game: Columbia (Home) - 99.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 6
Quad 28 - 117 - 7
Quad 35 - 022 - 7
Quad 45 - 027 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 356   New Haven W 79-55 99.6%    1 - 0 +8.9 +3.9 +6.2
  Nov 07, 2025 320   Umass Lowell W 110-47 99%     2 - 0 +51.5 +23.9 +23.5
  Nov 10, 2025 219   Columbia W 88-62 99%    
  Nov 15, 2025 13   BYU W 74-71 61%    
  Nov 19, 2025 10   Arizona W 78-73 69%    
  Nov 23, 2025 297   Bryant W 90-60 99.7%   
  Nov 28, 2025 5   Illinois W 77-76 54%    
  Dec 02, 2025 20   @ Kansas W 73-71 56%    
  Dec 05, 2025 331   East Texas A&M W 84-52 99.8%   
  Dec 09, 2025 8   Florida W 77-75 56%    
  Dec 12, 2025 39   Texas W 76-65 84%    
  Dec 16, 2025 70   Butler W 79-64 91%    
  Dec 21, 2025 91   @ DePaul W 77-66 84%    
  Dec 31, 2025 87   @ Xavier W 77-66 84%    
  Jan 04, 2026 43   Marquette W 79-67 84%    
  Jan 07, 2026 63   @ Providence W 77-69 77%    
  Jan 10, 2026 91   DePaul W 80-63 93%    
  Jan 13, 2026 105   @ Seton Hall W 73-60 88%    
  Jan 17, 2026 66   @ Georgetown W 76-67 77%    
  Jan 24, 2026 46   Villanova W 72-60 84%    
  Jan 27, 2026 63   Providence W 80-66 89%    
  Jan 31, 2026 32   @ Creighton W 75-71 62%    
  Feb 03, 2026 87   Xavier W 80-63 93%    
  Feb 06, 2026 11   @ St. John's L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 11, 2026 70   @ Butler W 76-67 78%    
  Feb 14, 2026 66   Georgetown W 79-64 90%    
  Feb 18, 2026 32   Creighton W 78-68 79%    
  Feb 21, 2026 46   @ Villanova W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 25, 2026 11   St. John's W 78-72 68%    
  Feb 28, 2026 105   Seton Hall W 76-57 95%    
  Mar 07, 2026 43   @ Marquette W 76-70 69%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.3 8.1 12.8 14.5 11.1 5.0 55.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.4 7.0 6.5 3.6 0.8 23.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.0 3.5 1.9 0.5 0.0 10.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 5.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.4 4.1 6.2 9.3 12.3 15.1 16.5 15.2 11.1 5.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 5.0    5.0
19-1 100.0% 11.1    10.8 0.2
18-2 94.9% 14.5    12.7 1.8 0.0
17-3 77.8% 12.8    9.6 3.1 0.2
16-4 53.7% 8.1    4.7 3.0 0.4 0.0
15-5 26.7% 3.3    1.4 1.4 0.5 0.1
14-6 8.8% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
13-7 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 55.7% 55.7 44.3 9.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 5.0% 100.0% 74.2% 25.8% 1.2 4.1 0.9 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 11.1% 100.0% 63.8% 36.2% 1.4 7.6 2.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 15.2% 100.0% 54.1% 45.9% 1.7 7.2 5.5 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 16.5% 100.0% 46.3% 53.7% 2.4 3.9 5.8 3.9 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 15.1% 100.0% 38.3% 61.7% 3.3 1.4 3.1 4.2 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 12.3% 99.8% 32.6% 67.2% 4.3 0.3 1.1 2.7 3.0 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-6 9.3% 99.0% 24.9% 74.2% 5.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.7%
13-7 6.2% 96.4% 19.5% 76.9% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 95.6%
12-8 4.1% 88.9% 14.6% 74.3% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.5 87.0%
11-9 2.4% 80.6% 9.5% 71.2% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.5 78.6%
10-10 1.4% 62.6% 9.1% 53.4% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 58.8%
9-11 0.7% 38.8% 4.9% 33.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 35.7%
8-12 0.4% 15.8% 2.6% 13.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 13.5%
7-13 0.2% 3.4% 1.7% 1.7% 11.0 0.0 0.2 1.8%
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 97.2% 41.0% 56.2% 3.5 24.5 19.6 14.5 11.3 8.2 6.1 4.7 3.6 2.3 1.6 0.8 0.1 2.8 95.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 1.1 92.9 7.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 86.5 13.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 85.7 14.3