Connecticut
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +21.4 #5
Expected Predictive Rating +27.9 #4
Pace 64.5 #301
Improvement -2.3 #302

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #15 A+ C- B+ C B
Defense #5 A+ D A+ B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #96 1.39 #12 +6.7 #17
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #279 0.91 #25 -0.6 #208
Three Pointers 43% #151 1.12 #55 +3.2 #85
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #12 +9.3 #14
Freethrows 16.9 #215 70% #252 11.9 #223
Second Chance 35.8% #47 1.13 #95 0.40 #44
Turnovers 16.4% #160
Total Offense +10.1 #15

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #113 0.86 #2 +4.8 #42
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #76 0.66 #74 -0.3 #208
Three Pointers 35% #323 0.80 #6 +6.7 #5
1st FG Attempt 0.79 #2 +11.3 #2
Freethrows 19.5 #293 73% #218 14.3 #67
Second Chance 23.8% #13 0.82 #11 0.20 #6
Turnovers 18.4% #83
Total Defense +11.3 #5

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #74 -0.5% #120
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 16.2% #10 -21.6% #2
Possession Length 17.9 #236 17.8 #264
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #133 0.10 #16
Improvement -2.1 #308 -0.2 #202

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.5% 6.6% 3.2%
#1 Seed 33.9% 34.4% 18.1%
Top 2 Seed 72.4% 72.9% 53.2%
Top 4 Seed 98.1% 98.3% 93.2%
Top 6 Seed 99.9% 99.9% 99.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.0 2.0 2.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 86.1% 86.7% 69.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round97.9% 98.0% 94.4%
Sweet Sixteen74.4% 74.6% 68.7%
Elite Eight46.4% 46.7% 37.4%
Final Four25.1% 25.3% 18.1%
Championship Game12.8% 12.9% 8.9%
National Champion6.2% 6.3% 2.9%

Next Game: DePaul (Home) - 97.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 26 - 2
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 3
Quad 29 - 120 - 4
Quad 36 - 025 - 4
Quad 44 - 030 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 329 New Haven W 79-55 99.6%    12.0   1 - 0 +10.6 +6.2 +5.7
  Fri, Nov 7 300 Umass Lowell W 110-47 99%     42.5   2 - 0 +52.2 +23.7 +24.4
  Mon, Nov 10 137 Columbia W 89-62 97%     16.5   3 - 0 +25.3 +19.7 +7.0
  Sat, Nov 15 9 BYU W 86-84 54%     9.2   4 - 0 +22.3 +17.2 +5.0
  Wed, Nov 19 2 Arizona L 67-71 53%     -3.5   4 - 1 +16.8 +12.2 +4.2
  Sun, Nov 23 306 Bryant W 72-49 99%     14.1   5 - 1 +11.7 +1.5 +11.9
  Fri, Nov 28 10 Illinois W 74-61 55%     9.9   6 - 1 +33.1 +13.4 +20.5
  Tue, Dec 2 18 @Kansas W 61-56 57%     -1.9   7 - 1 +24.5 +6.7 +18.5
  Fri, Dec 5 325 East Texas A&M W 83-59 99.5%    12.8   8 - 1 +11.0 +11.7 +0.8
  Tue, Dec 9 12 Florida W 77-73 62%     2.4   9 - 1 +22.4 +16.8 +5.7
  Fri, Dec 12 45 Texas W 71-63 89%     6.4   10 - 1 +16.1 +3.3 +13.3
  Tue, Dec 16 58 Butler W 79-60 91%     9.7   11 - 1 1 - 0 +25.4 +8.7 +16.7
  Sun, Dec 21 103 @DePaul W 72-54 89%     5.4   12 - 1 2 - 0 +25.8 +7.9 +18.4
  Wed, Dec 31 99 @Xavier W 90-67 89%     17.6   13 - 1 3 - 0 +31.2 +18.6 +11.8
  Sun, Jan 4 110 Marquette W 73-57 96%     11.3   14 - 1 4 - 0 +17.3 +4.1 +13.6
  Wed, Jan 7 64 @Providence W 103-98 OT 82%     -4.8   15 - 1 5 - 0 +16.8 +17.0 -1.0
  Sat, Jan 10 103 DePaul W 78-58 97%    
  Tue, Jan 13 54 @Seton Hall W 69-61 79%    
  Sat, Jan 17 102 @Georgetown W 79-65 90%    
  Sat, Jan 24 30 Villanova W 72-62 83%    
  Tue, Jan 27 64 Providence W 86-70 93%    
  Sat, Jan 31 37 @Creighton W 73-68 69%    
  Tue, Feb 3 99 Xavier W 82-63 96%    
  Fri, Feb 6 20 @St. John's W 74-72 58%    
  Wed, Feb 11 58 @Butler W 79-70 80%    
  Sat, Feb 14 102 Georgetown W 82-62 96%    
  Wed, Feb 18 37 Creighton W 76-65 85%    
  Sat, Feb 21 30 @Villanova W 69-65 65%    
  Wed, Feb 25 20 St. John's W 77-69 78%    
  Sat, Feb 28 54 Seton Hall W 72-58 91%    
  Sat, Mar 7 110 @Marquette W 78-64 90%    
Projected Record 27 - 4 17 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.4 9.7 19.9 25.0 20.1 8.8 86.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.6 3.9 1.3 0.1 10.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 2.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 3.0 6.8 13.7 21.1 25.1 20.1 8.8 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 8.8    8.8
19-1 100.0% 20.1    20.1
18-2 99.8% 25.0    24.2 0.9
17-3 93.9% 19.9    16.5 3.3 0.1
16-4 71.1% 9.7    5.6 3.6 0.5 0.0
15-5 35.8% 2.4    0.8 1.1 0.4 0.1
14-6 9.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 86.1% 86.1 76.0 9.0 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 8.8% 100.0% 69.5% 30.5% 1.3 6.5 2.2 0.1 100.0%
19-1 20.1% 100.0% 62.7% 37.3% 1.4 11.9 7.5 0.6 0.0 100.0%
18-2 25.1% 100.0% 58.3% 41.7% 1.7 9.9 11.8 3.2 0.2 100.0%
17-3 21.1% 100.0% 51.9% 48.1% 2.2 4.2 10.3 5.8 0.8 0.0 100.0%
16-4 13.7% 100.0% 45.1% 54.9% 2.6 1.1 5.0 5.7 1.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.8% 100.0% 39.5% 60.5% 3.1 0.2 1.3 3.0 1.9 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-6 3.0% 100.0% 33.9% 66.1% 3.7 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 100.0%
13-7 1.0% 100.0% 33.1% 66.9% 4.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 0.3% 100.0% 21.7% 78.3% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 0.1% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 54.6% 45.4% 2.0 33.9 38.5 19.6 6.2 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.1% 100.0% 1.2 78.2 21.5 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3% 100.0% 1.4 66.9 31.0 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0% 100.0% 1.4 64.0 34.7 1.3