Samford
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.2 #210
Expected Predictive Rating -1.3 #184
Pace 69.0 #191
Improvement +2.6 #52

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #206 D C F A C
Defense #226 C B- C+ D A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #279 1.15 #193 -2.4 #264
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #177 0.64 #303 -1.1 #236
Three Pointers 45% #111 0.90 #294 -0.5 #197
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #286 -4.1 #286
Freethrows 18.7 #108 66% #334 12.3 #199
Second Chance 25.2% #314 0.91 #317 0.23 #334
Turnovers 13.3% #22
Total Offense -1.4 #206

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #246 1.08 #89 +2.7 #92
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #22 0.89 #335 -4.9 #363
Three Pointers 36% #317 1.09 #275 +1.5 #133
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #206 -0.7 #208
Freethrows 14.8 #64 74% #262 11.0 #87
Second Chance 27.9% #89 1.07 #222 0.30 #135
Turnovers 14.4% #308
Total Defense -1.8 #226

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #227 -2.3% #34
Shot Type Make % Effect -7.5% #293 3.6% #239
Possession Length 17.8 #233 17.0 #154
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #353 0.17 #163
Improvement -1.5 #288 +4.1 #4

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.2% 10.7% 7.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.1
.500 or above 68.6% 80.1% 55.5%
.500 or above in Conference 79.0% 88.5% 68.0%
Conference Champion 10.2% 14.7% 5.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.1% 1.1%
First Four0.8% 0.7% 0.9%
First Round8.9% 10.5% 7.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Greensboro (Away) - 53.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 63 - 10
Quad 414 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 182 @Tulane L 72-85 32%     -6.3   0 - 1 -11.4 +3.8 -16.2
  Fri, Nov 7 359 South Carolina St. W 82-72 92%     0.8   1 - 1 -8.4 -1.8 -6.9
  Wed, Nov 12 328 @Texas Southern W 93-90 OT 65%     -1.0   2 - 1 -4.0 +8.7 -13.0
  Fri, Nov 14 24 @Arkansas L 75-79 3%     -7.5   2 - 2 +14.6 +7.0 +7.7
  Sun, Nov 16 268 @Central Arkansas W 84-77 OT 49%     -2.7   3 - 2 +4.0 +4.0 -0.5
  Wed, Nov 19 193 Florida Gulf Coast L 62-77 57%     -9.3   3 - 3 -20.1 -15.5 -4.9
  Fri, Nov 21 125 @New Mexico St. L 72-81 21%     -10.0   3 - 4 -3.7 +11.0 -15.8
  Tue, Nov 25 315 Georgia St. W 78-63 72%     6.5   4 - 4 +5.7 +2.3 +3.3
  Wed, Nov 26 86 Utah Valley L 45-89 18%     -23.4   4 - 5 -37.3 -25.2 -10.1
  Fri, Dec 5 47 @Virginia Commonwealth L 57-83 6%     -6.8   4 - 6 -12.0 -10.6 -1.2
  Sun, Dec 7 159 Cornell W 93-90 49%     -2.7   5 - 6 +0.0 +4.6 -4.9
  Thu, Jan 1 339 @VMI W 78-58 70%     4.5   6 - 6 1 - 0 +11.4 +2.4 +9.8
  Sat, Jan 3 292 @UNC Greensboro W 74-73 53%    
  Wed, Jan 7 301 Western Carolina W 80-72 78%    
  Sat, Jan 10 252 @Chattanooga L 73-74 46%    
  Wed, Jan 14 146 Furman L 72-73 46%    
  Sat, Jan 17 129 East Tennessee St. L 72-74 42%    
  Wed, Jan 21 220 @Wofford L 72-75 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 252 Chattanooga W 76-71 67%    
  Thu, Jan 29 146 @Furman L 69-76 26%    
  Sat, Jan 31 301 @Western Carolina W 77-75 57%    
  Thu, Feb 5 358 The Citadel W 78-64 90%    
  Sat, Feb 7 174 Mercer W 78-77 53%    
  Wed, Feb 11 220 Wofford W 75-72 62%    
  Sat, Feb 14 129 @East Tennessee St. L 69-77 23%    
  Thu, Feb 19 358 @The Citadel W 75-67 78%    
  Sat, Feb 21 174 @Mercer L 75-80 31%    
  Thu, Feb 26 339 VMI W 81-70 85%    
  Sat, Feb 28 292 UNC Greensboro W 77-70 73%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.3 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 10.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 4.2 5.5 2.8 0.5 0.1 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 6.2 6.7 2.5 0.2 17.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 2.0 7.1 6.9 2.0 0.1 18.2 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 6.1 5.8 1.6 0.1 15.6 5th
6th 0.2 1.6 5.1 4.1 0.9 0.0 11.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.0 2.3 0.6 0.1 7.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.3 6.0 9.6 12.8 15.6 15.8 13.4 10.3 6.3 3.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
16-2 93.7% 1.0    1.0 0.1
15-3 86.3% 2.8    1.9 0.9 0.1
14-4 52.2% 3.3    1.7 1.4 0.3 0.0
13-5 21.0% 2.2    0.4 1.0 0.7 0.1
12-6 3.7% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.2% 10.2 5.3 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 42.9% 42.9% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
16-2 1.1% 28.8% 28.8% 13.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.8
15-3 3.3% 25.5% 25.5% 14.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 2.5
14-4 6.3% 19.9% 19.9% 14.4 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 5.1
13-5 10.3% 17.2% 17.2% 14.7 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.2 8.5
12-6 13.4% 11.6% 11.6% 15.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.3 11.9
11-7 15.8% 7.4% 7.4% 15.2 0.1 0.7 0.4 14.6
10-8 15.6% 6.9% 6.9% 15.4 0.6 0.5 14.6
9-9 12.8% 4.8% 4.8% 15.7 0.2 0.4 12.2
8-10 9.6% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.3 9.3
7-11 6.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 5.9
6-12 3.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.3
5-13 1.5% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.2 2.3 90.8 0.0%