Samford
Southern
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#145
Expected Predictive Rating+0.7#152
Pace67.2#209
Improvement-0.4#233

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#67
First Shot+4.5#57
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#218
Layup/Dunks-2.2#270
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#219
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#24
Freethrows+2.5#29
Improvement+0.3#134

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#254
First Shot-3.2#282
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#123
Layups/Dunks+5.8#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#332
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#341
Freethrows-2.4#327
Improvement-0.7#288
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.7% 14.7% 10.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 98.9% 99.8% 96.2%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 30.0% 35.1% 14.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.6%
First Round13.7% 14.6% 10.7%
Second Round0.9% 1.0% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Home) - 75.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 33 - 54 - 8
Quad 413 - 216 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 17, 2022 347   @ Alabama A&M W 84-64 84%     1 - 0 +10.6 -0.6 +9.0
  Nov 20, 2022 314   Texas Southern W 78-63 87%     2 - 0 +4.1 +6.4 -1.6
  Nov 23, 2022 267   Valparaiso W 79-49 82%     3 - 0 +21.7 +4.6 +17.6
  Nov 25, 2022 137   Louisiana Tech L 76-79 59%     3 - 1 -4.0 -4.0 +0.3
  Nov 30, 2022 124   @ DePaul L 98-103 OT 35%     3 - 2 +0.3 +8.4 -7.2
  Dec 04, 2022 65   @ Central Florida L 77-80 OT 18%     3 - 3 +8.1 +5.0 +3.3
  Dec 10, 2022 112   @ Louisiana L 58-75 32%     3 - 4 -10.8 -8.6 -3.6
  Dec 17, 2022 355   @ South Carolina St. L 61-62 88%     3 - 5 -12.6 -14.0 +1.3
  Dec 21, 2022 128   @ Belmont L 56-79 36%     3 - 6 -18.0 -9.0 -11.9
  Dec 28, 2022 228   Mercer W 78-69 76%     4 - 6 1 - 0 +3.1 +14.9 -10.3
  Dec 31, 2022 301   @ The Citadel W 75-63 73%     5 - 6 2 - 0 +7.0 +0.7 +6.5
  Jan 04, 2023 335   VMI W 87-78 91%     6 - 6 3 - 0 -4.2 +10.1 -13.8
  Jan 07, 2023 138   @ UNC Greensboro W 70-68 38%     7 - 6 4 - 0 +6.4 +11.0 -4.4
  Jan 11, 2023 215   Wofford W 83-58 73%     8 - 6 5 - 0 +20.0 +10.7 +11.1
  Jan 14, 2023 164   Chattanooga W 75-74 65%     9 - 6 6 - 0 -1.5 +2.6 -4.1
  Jan 18, 2023 223   @ East Tennessee St. W 69-59 56%     10 - 6 7 - 0 +9.8 +5.8 +5.2
  Jan 21, 2023 260   Western Carolina W 74-65 81%     11 - 6 8 - 0 +0.9 +2.3 -0.7
  Jan 25, 2023 87   @ Furman L 84-91 OT 25%     11 - 7 8 - 1 +1.5 +5.7 -3.7
  Jan 28, 2023 215   @ Wofford L 77-85 53%     11 - 8 8 - 2 -7.5 +0.6 -8.0
  Feb 01, 2023 260   @ Western Carolina W 85-77 65%     12 - 8 9 - 2 +5.4 +7.7 -2.6
  Feb 04, 2023 223   East Tennessee St. W 74-67 75%    
  Feb 08, 2023 228   @ Mercer W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 11, 2023 301   The Citadel W 80-68 87%    
  Feb 15, 2023 138   UNC Greensboro W 67-65 60%    
  Feb 18, 2023 335   @ VMI W 79-70 79%    
  Feb 22, 2023 164   @ Chattanooga L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 25, 2023 87   Furman L 76-78 45%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 9.4 14.6 4.6 30.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 4.5 15.4 17.3 2.2 39.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 5.0 11.5 10.2 2.2 29.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 1.0 5.5 16.1 27.1 29.0 16.8 4.6 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 4.6    4.6
15-3 87.0% 14.6    7.0 7.0 0.6
14-4 32.6% 9.4    2.2 5.5 1.8
13-5 5.1% 1.4    0.1 0.7 0.5
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.0% 30.0 13.9 13.2 2.9 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 4.6% 24.0% 24.0% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.5
15-3 16.8% 19.1% 19.1% 14.1 0.0 0.4 2.0 0.8 0.0 13.6
14-4 29.0% 15.0% 15.0% 14.5 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.0 0.1 24.6
13-5 27.1% 11.9% 11.9% 14.8 0.0 0.8 2.1 0.3 23.9
12-6 16.1% 8.8% 8.8% 15.2 0.1 0.9 0.4 14.6
11-7 5.5% 7.1% 7.1% 15.7 0.1 0.3 5.1
10-8 1.0% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.1 0.9
9-9 0.1% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 1.0 5.5 6.0 1.2 86.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.6% 24.0% 13.7 0.5 8.5 13.8 1.1 0.0
Lose Out 0.1% 6.0% 16.0 6.0