Samford
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -2.0 192
Results Rating -2.6 208
Consistency 0.17 289
Pace 68.2 190
Improvement +5.9 16

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 146 C- D B+ B- C-
Defense D+ 257 C- C+ F+ C A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 303 B- 61% 95 -1.3 230
2 Pt. Jumpers 35% 220 D+ 35% 264 -0.5 207
Three Pointers 45% 93 D+ 31% 287 +0.3 164
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.3 228 C- -1.2 215
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 217
Second Chance D- 24.1% 336 C+ 1.06 131 D 0.26 308
Turnovers from Steals A- 7.2% 16
Other Turnovers B- 6.4% 72
Turnovers B+ 13.6% 22
Freethrows B+ 0.36 25 D 68% 307 B- 0.25 82
Total Offense C +0.8 146

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 52% 118 D+ 12.7% 286
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 14% 333 C 5.0% 185
Three Pointers C+ 87% 136 B- 0.6% 99
Total C+ 57% 145 C 5.6% 196

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 244 C 57% 161 -1.3 125
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 10 D 43% 326 +5.0 364
Three Pointers 33% 353 D 37% 290 -2.6 72
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- -1.3 23 D+ +2.4 272
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 215
Second Chance B 26.3% 47 D 1.12 303 C+ 0.30 130
Turnovers from Steals F+ 6.3% 352
Other Turnovers C- 6.9% 240
Turnovers F+ 13.2% 348
Freethrows C+ 0.29 150 D 75% 319 C 0.22 173
Total Defense D+ -2.7 257

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 96 D+ 8.1% 297
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 25% 175 C+ 5.6% 115
Three Pointers B+ 78% 35 D+ 0.4% 299
Total B+ 48% 30 C- 4.8% 242

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 192 17.3 177
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 314 0.16 154
Consistency 0.12 171 0.14 300
Improvement +3.4 39 +2.4 61

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 217 192 165
Results Rating Rank 233 211 143
Conference Record 10 - 8 11 - 7 11 - 7
Conference Finish 5 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12% 13% 7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.8 15.6
.500 or above 99% 100% 89%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 1%
First Round12% 13% 7%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: VMI (Home) - 95.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 32 - 63 - 10
Quad 413 - 517 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 180 @Tulane L 72 - 85 36% -6  16% 0 - 1 D -11 C+ +3 C- B+ C+ F -16 F A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 7 357 South Carolina St. W 82 - 72 93% +1  44% 1 - 1 D -9 D+ -4 F+ D- B+ D -5 C- D D-
 Wed, Nov 12 306 @Texas Southern W 93 - 90 OT 64% -1  30% 2 - 1 C- -3 B +6 D B- B+ F+ -9 F A F
 Fri, Nov 14 15 @Arkansas L 75 - 79 2% -8  1% 2 - 2 A +18 B- +4 B- D A+ A+ +14 A A+ C+
 Sun, Nov 16 177 @Central Arkansas W 84 - 77 OT 35% -3  17% 3 - 2 B +9 C+ +3 C- F A+ B+ +5 B- B+ D+
 Wed, Nov 19 251 Florida Gulf Coast L 62 - 77 72% -9  6% 3 - 3 F -23 F -17 F F+ B- D -6 D- F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 159 @New Mexico St. L 72 - 81 32% -10  4% 3 - 4 D+ -6 B- +5 D C A+ F -13 F F F
 Tue, Nov 25 293 Georgia St. W 78 - 63 71% +7  90% 4 - 4 B- +7 C +1 C- B+ F+ B+ +6 A+ D- D
 Wed, Nov 26 94 Utah Valley L 45 - 89 23% -23  1% 4 - 5 F -38 F -28 F F+ C- F+ -8 D- C D-
 Fri, Dec 5 49 @Virginia Commonwealth L 57 - 83 7% -7  40% 4 - 6 D- -12 F -13 F F B+ C+ +1 C- C B-
 Sun, Dec 7 170 Cornell W 93 - 90 57% -3  23% 5 - 6 C -1 C +1 B C C C- -2 A+ D F
 Thu, Jan 1 359 @VMI W 78 - 58 86% +4  46% 6 - 6 1 - 0 B- +7 D+ -2 B- F A A +10 B+ B D+
 Sat, Jan 3 302 @UNC Greensboro L 82 - 89 63% -8  1% 6 - 7 1 - 1 D- -12 B +6 C- C+ A F -19 D- F F
 Wed, Jan 7 244 Western Carolina W 82 - 77 71% -6  10% 7 - 7 2 - 1 C- -3 B- +4 C C A D -6 A- F D
 Sat, Jan 10 276 @Chattanooga L 79 - 88 56% -14  1% 7 - 8 2 - 2 D- -12 D+ -2 C+ F B+ F+ -10 D+ B- F
 Wed, Jan 14 174 Furman L 73 - 77 58% -2  32% 7 - 9 2 - 3 D+ -8 D+ -3 C- D B- D+ -4 C C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 136 East Tennessee St. L 75 - 76 48% -5  2% 7 - 10 2 - 4 C- -3 A +11 B+ D A+ F -14 F+ C F
 Wed, Jan 21 231 @Wofford L 78 - 88 46% -1  28% 7 - 11 2 - 5 D -11 B- +5 C+ C B+ F -17 F C- F+
 Sat, Jan 24 276 Chattanooga W 75 - 64 76% +1  52% 8 - 11 3 - 5 C +2 B- +4 D F+ A+ C -1 C C+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 174 @Furman L 73 - 78 35% -4  8% 8 - 12 3 - 6 C- -3 B +6 D B+ A+ F+ -9 F F B
 Sun, Feb 1 244 @Western Carolina W 88 - 74 49% +8  89% 9 - 12 4 - 6 B+ +12 B +7 B C D+ B+ +5 A- A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 349 The Citadel W 78 - 64 90% +6  96% 10 - 12 5 - 6 C- -2 C +1 B F C- C- -2 C F C-
 Sat, Feb 7 182 Mercer W 69 - 49 59% +15  94% 11 - 12 6 - 6 A- +16 D- -6 D+ F+ B A+ +23 A+ A+ D-
 Wed, Feb 11 231 Wofford W 97 - 80 68% +13  95% 12 - 12 7 - 6 B +10 A +12 A+ A- D- C- -2 C B+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 136 @East Tennessee St. W 82 - 72 OT 27% +2  58% 13 - 12 8 - 6 B+ +14 C+ +3 F A A+ A +11 A B- C
 Thu, Feb 19 349 @The Citadel W 78 - 75 79% +5  74% 14 - 12 9 - 6 D+ -7 D+ -3 B F F+ D+ -4 C- C- F
 Sat, Feb 21 182 @Mercer L 86 - 89 36% -2  19% 14 - 13 9 - 7 C -1 B+ +9 D+ C- A+ F -10 F B+ B-
 Thu, Feb 26 359 VMI W 85 - 68 95%
 Sat, Feb 28 302 UNC Greensboro W 84 - 75 82%
Totals 16 - 13 11 - 7 -2 C +1 C C- C- D+ -3 D+ D B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B- D+ D+ C- 34% 35% 45% C- C- D- C+ D B+ B+ D B- D+ C D D D+ 37% 30% 33% A- C- B D C+ F+ C+ D C
1.10 61% 35% 31% -1 0 0.99 24% 1.1 .26 14% .36 68% .25 1.13 57% 43% 37% +2 -1 1.04 26% 1.1 .30 13% .29 75% .27
Nov
3		 Tulane C+ D+ F A- C+ 25% 27% 48% F+ C- B- B+ B+ C+ C F D F D- F F F 29% 29% 41% A+ F A+ B+ A+ D- A+ F A
1.11 54% 29% 40% +1 -2 1.00 37% 1.1 .41 17% .31 59% .18 1.31 67% 60% 52% +20 -2 1.39 9% 1.0 .09 12% .23 92% .21
Nov
7		 South Carolina St. D+ F F B- F 48% 4% 48% B F+ F A D- B+ A+ F A+ D A+ F B- D+ 21% 42% 37% A C- A+ F D D- C F F+
1.14 50% 0% 36% -4 +3 1.00 26% 1.4 .38 14% .60 65% .39 1.00 36% 50% 32% -1 -4 0.92 19% 1.8 .34 18% .30 83% .25
Nov
12		 Texas Southern B F A+ D+ D- 37% 8% 55% B- D F A+ B- B+ A+ D+ A+ F+ C- B+ F F 39% 36% 25% A- F A+ B- A F C B C+
1.20 47% 75% 32% -3 +2 1.00 20% 2.0 .40 13% .65 68% .44 1.16 58% 32% 67% +10 -2 1.18 16% 1.0 .16 8% .29 67% .20
Nov
14		 Arkansas B- C- D+ C C+ 39% 20% 41% C+ B- D D+ D A+ F A+ D A+ A D- D- B+ 31% 41% 28% A+ A A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ C- D+
1.04 54% 33% 32% -4 0 0.95 24% 1.1 .26 11% .16 90% .14 1.10 53% 45% 40% +4 -3 1.04 24% 0.8 .19 12% .35 77% .27
Nov
16		 Central Arkansas C+ A+ F C C 22% 14% 64% D C- D- F F A+ C- C C- B+ D A+ C+ B- 45% 24% 31% C+ B- D+ A+ B+ D+ F A+ C-
1.12 85% 13% 34% +3 0 1.07 21% 0.9 .19 9% .26 72% .19 1.02 65% 14% 33% -3 0 0.97 30% 0.7 .21 15% .36 57% .20
Nov
19		 Florida Gulf Coast F F A+ F F 36% 22% 42% D+ F C+ F F+ B- B+ F D- D A- F D F 38% 40% 23% A- D- F C- F A+ D+ B+ C
0.90 39% 55% 24% -10 0 0.82 32% 0.7 .21 15% .41 54% .22 1.12 50% 63% 36% +8 -3 1.13 42% 1.1 .45 25% .29 67% .19
Nov
21		 New Mexico St. B- B B F D- 27% 20% 53% C D D A C A+ C- C C- F F+ D+ F F 36% 34% 30% B- F C F F F C- D+ C-
1.16 64% 40% 22% -7 -1 0.86 26% 1.4 .37 5% .35 76% .27 1.30 67% 41% 47% +10 -2 1.18 32% 1.3 .43 10% .28 75% .21
Nov
25		 Georgia St. C B+ F D- C- 42% 12% 47% B C- D+ A+ B+ F+ A+ D A+ B+ A+ A- A+ A+ 27% 14% 59% F A+ F+ C- D- D F F F
1.11 67% 20% 30% -1 +1 1.02 31% 1.3 .41 20% .61 68% .41 0.90 29% 29% 17% -25 0 0.53 33% 1.1 .35 14% .45 89% .40
Nov
26		 Utah Valley F F F F F 34% 21% 45% C- F C F F+ C- F F F F+ D+ C- F D- 64% 14% 21% D D- B+ F+ C D- B F C
0.61 22% 27% 25% -21 0 0.60 30% 0.6 .18 22% .21 42% .09 1.21 64% 38% 42% +6 +3 1.20 32% 1.2 .39 18% .25 80% .20
Dec
5		 Virginia Commonwealth F A- F F F 38% 25% 37% D+ F F F F B+ B- D+ C+ C+ A C- F D+ 40% 13% 46% C+ C- F+ A- C B- C A+ A-
0.81 65% 23% 11% -14 -1 0.73 20% 0.7 .14 14% .32 68% .22 1.18 48% 43% 46% +5 +1 1.13 40% 0.9 .38 17% .38 59% .22
Dec
7		 Cornell C A+ B+ F B 41% 22% 37% D+ B D- A+ C C A+ C- A+ C- A+ D- B- A 27% 23% 50% A+ A+ F+ C D F C+ B+ B-
1.21 86% 45% 26% +9 0 1.20 24% 1.4 .33 14% .50 70% .35 1.17 44% 47% 33% -2 -1 0.95 37% 1.1 .41 12% .28 68% .19
Jan
1		 VMI D+ A+ F A+ B 31% 25% 44% D B- F F F A A+ F B+ A F C A+ B- 17% 31% 52% A+ B+ C+ A B D+ A- D B+
1.16 93% 17% 43% +11 -1 1.23 26% 0.3 .08 12% .46 59% .27 0.86 67% 35% 21% -9 -3 0.78 24% 0.7 .17 15% .21 75% .16
Jan
3		 UNC Greensboro B A+ F F D+ 31% 14% 55% C+ C- C B- C+ A A+ F B+ F A+ C F F 32% 44% 24% A+ D- C- F F F F D F
1.26 87% 29% 30% +4 0 1.10 31% 1.2 .36 9% .40 58% .24 1.36 44% 36% 67% +6 -3 1.08 29% 1.4 .40 3% .47 73% .35
Jan
7		 Western Carolina B- D B A- C 37% 21% 42% C- C C- B C A B- A+ A D A- A+ F A 52% 28% 20% C A- F F F D F F F
1.22 53% 45% 41% +4 0 1.10 26% 1.1 .29 10% .35 90% .31 1.14 46% 21% 40% -9 0 0.84 41% 1.5 .59 15% .44 88% .38
Jan
10		 Chattanooga D+ A+ F D+ C+ 42% 17% 42% C+ C+ F B- F B+ A+ F A+ F+ B C- F+ C- 50% 20% 30% F+ D+ A+ F B- F F+ F F
1.08 77% 11% 32% +2 +1 1.08 14% 1.2 .17 11% .55 61% .34 1.20 53% 42% 39% +1 +1 1.05 9% 2.0 .18 4% .34 92% .31
Jan
14		 Furman D+ B+ F F D 46% 15% 38% B+ C- F A+ D B- A+ A A+ D+ C F A C- 27% 24% 49% A+ C F+ A+ C+ F B- C C+
1.04 63% 25% 25% -5 +1 0.94 18% 1.3 .24 13% .38 78% .29 1.10 60% 69% 26% +2 -1 1.04 37% 0.7 .27 14% .27 69% .18
Jan
17		 East Tennessee St. A F+ A+ A+ A 24% 16% 60% D B+ F A D A+ D- A+ C- F F C F F 31% 44% 24% A+ F+ A+ F C F C F F+
1.25 50% 50% 43% +8 0 1.18 19% 1.2 .22 10% .24 85% .20 1.26 79% 40% 45% +11 -4 1.18 17% 1.8 .30 10% .31 94% .30
Jan
21		 Wofford B- A- A+ F C+ 41% 12% 47% C+ C+ D+ B C B+ D- C+ D- F F F F F 55% 19% 26% D+ F A+ F C- F+ F D F
1.19 67% 67% 29% +3 +1 1.12 27% 1.3 .33 12% .24 79% .19 1.34 69% 56% 50% +16 +1 1.36 14% 2.0 .29 11% .41 75% .31
Jan
24		 Chattanooga B- F A+ D- D- 40% 4% 56% A D F C- F+ A+ A+ F A+ C A D D C 24% 20% 56% B- C B+ F C+ F F A D-
1.21 47% 100% 30% -5 +2 0.96 24% 1.1 .26 6% .62 64% .40 1.03 45% 44% 36% 0 -1 1.00 15% 1.4 .21 11% .38 67% .25
Jan
29		 Furman B D A+ F C 18% 38% 44% F D B+ B- B+ A+ A+ F B- F+ F F A+ F 37% 23% 40% A- F C+ F F B F F+ F
1.13 50% 52% 25% -2 -4 0.91 36% 1.1 .39 6% .36 55% .20 1.21 81% 70% 24% +10 0 1.21 29% 1.7 .50 22% .40 75% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Western Carolina B A+ F B+ B 36% 11% 52% B B C+ C- C D+ A+ D+ A+ B+ B B+ A A- 35% 26% 39% B+ A- A+ A A+ F F D F
1.21 75% 20% 39% +8 +1 1.20 30% 1.0 .30 17% .68 73% .50 1.02 50% 33% 27% -8 -1 0.84 23% 0.8 .18 10% .37 75% .28
Feb
5		 The Citadel C C+ B+ A+ A- 30% 24% 46% F B D F F C- A+ C A+ C- C- F A+ D+ 30% 34% 36% A+ C F D- F C- C- A+ B+
1.20 64% 45% 48% +13 -1 1.26 28% 0.6 .17 15% .47 69% .33 0.99 57% 56% 18% -3 -2 0.91 34% 1.1 .37 17% .28 47% .13
Feb
7		 Mercer D- C A D- C- 34% 26% 40% D D+ F A+ F+ B A C- A A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 33% 40% 27% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- B D+ B-
1.05 56% 50% 32% +1 -1 1.02 13% 1.5 .20 15% .36 75% .27 0.74 35% 29% 21% -16 -3 0.63 22% 0.4 .09 14% .30 76% .23
Feb
11		 Wofford A A+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 18% 47% D+ A+ F+ A+ A- D- A- D- B C- B- D- C- D 32% 30% 38% A+ C A+ F B+ F D+ B+ C
1.33 78% 56% 50% +21 0 1.45 23% 2.0 .45 18% .37 73% .27 1.10 53% 44% 35% +1 -2 1.00 11% 1.8 .19 5% .35 67% .23
Feb
14		 East Tennessee St. C+ D- F F F 36% 15% 49% C F F+ A+ A A+ A+ B- A+ A A D- A A 42% 24% 35% B- A A- D- B- C D+ C- D+
1.09 53% 14% 26% -11 +1 0.81 21% 2.0 .42 13% .61 78% .48 0.96 48% 46% 26% -6 0 0.89 21% 1.3 .26 16% .35 77% .27
Feb
19		 The Citadel D+ A+ F B+ B 39% 14% 47% C B D- F F F+ B F C- D+ C A+ D- D+ 29% 27% 44% A C- A+ F C- F A+ F A+
1.10 79% 29% 39% +10 +1 1.24 27% 0.7 .18 18% .33 58% .19 1.06 56% 24% 37% -3 -2 0.94 17% 1.6 .26 8% .12 75% .09
Feb
21		 Mercer B+ C+ D- A C- 39% 37% 25% F D+ D- B+ C- A+ A A+ A+ F F F F F 33% 31% 35% A- F A+ F B+ B- F C+ F
1.22 59% 33% 43% +2 -2 1.02 27% 1.1 .30 9% .36 87% .31 1.26 94% 53% 41% +20 -2 1.40 22% 1.2 .26 18% .44 72% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 9.5 9.5 2nd
3rd 4.9 68.7 73.5 3rd
4th 10.6 10.6 4th
5th 0.4 5.3 5.7 5th
6th 0.5 0.5 6th
7th 0.2 0.2 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 1.1 20.7 78.2 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 78.2% 13.1% 13.1% 14.7 0.2 3.6 5.9 0.5 68.0
10-8 20.7% 10.5% 10.5% 15.5 0.1 0.9 1.2 18.5
9-9 1.1% 6.5% 6.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 14.8 87.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.2% 100.0% 14.7 2.3 34.9 57.7 5.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 11.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 18.9%