Samford
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.5 #240
Expected Predictive Rating -5.3 #249
Pace 67.7 #215
Improvement +1.2 #138

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #156 D+ D A- C C
Defense #310 C- C D- C B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #277 1.18 #143 -1.6 #241
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #202 0.72 #239 -0.8 #224
Three Pointers 46% #87 0.90 #323 -0.4 #196
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #261 -2.8 #261
Freethrows 0.33 #88 66% #338 0.22 #169
Second Chance 24.9% #328 0.98 #245 0.24 #325
Turnovers 12.7% #10
Total Offense +0.1 #156

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #197 1.13 #143 +0.7 #149
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #10 0.88 #338 -5.0 #364
Three Pointers 33% #356 1.15 #337 +2.1 #106
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #259 -2.3 #260
Freethrows 0.29 #143 77% #353 0.22 #200
Second Chance 27.6% #72 1.16 #329 0.32 #195
Turnovers 13.1% #345
Total Defense -4.6 #310

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.2% #210 -2.2% #28
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.3% #268 6.7% #302
Possession Length 17.5 #209 17.4 #215
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #341 0.15 #117
Improvement +3.2 #42 -2.0 #291

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 5.4% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.4 15.8
.500 or above 18.8% 31.2% 9.2%
.500 or above in Conference 35.0% 53.9% 20.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 0.9%
First Four1.6% 1.3% 1.8%
First Round3.7% 4.8% 2.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Away) - 43.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 82 - 11
Quad 412 - 614 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 179 @Tulane L 72 - 85 28% -6  0 - 1 -11 +5 D+ B- C+ -18 F A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 7 359 South Carolina St. W 82 - 72 89% +1  1 - 1 -8 -1 D- D- B- -7 C- D+ F+
 Wed, Nov 12 309 @Texas Southern W 93 - 90 OT 56% -1  2 - 1 -3 +8 D C B+ -11 F A+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 22 @Arkansas L 75 - 79 2% -8  2 - 2 +15 +6 C+ F+ A+ +9 A- A+ C
 Sun, Nov 16 221 @Central Arkansas W 84 - 77 OT 35% -3  3 - 2 +7 +5 C F A+ +1 B- B D+
 Wed, Nov 19 223 Florida Gulf Coast L 62 - 77 58% -9  3 - 3 -21 -14 F D- B -8 D F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 167 @New Mexico St. L 72 - 81 26% -10  3 - 4 -7 +8 D- C+ A+ -16 F F F
 Tue, Nov 25 272 Georgia St. W 78 - 63 57% +7  4 - 4 +9 +4 C B D- +5 A+ D D-
 Wed, Nov 26 102 Utah Valley L 45 - 89 19% -23  4 - 5 -39 -26 F F D+ -11 D- C D
 Fri, Dec 5 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 57 - 83 6% -7  4 - 6 -13 -12 F F B+ -1 C- C B
 Sun, Dec 7 174 Cornell W 93 - 90 49% -3  5 - 6 -1 +3 C+ C- C -4 A+ D- F
 Thu, Jan 1 357 @VMI W 78 - 58 74% +4  6 - 6 1 - 0 +9 +1 B F A+ +8 B B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 313 @UNC Greensboro L 82 - 89 56% -8  6 - 7 1 - 1 -13 +10 C C+ B+ -23 F+ F F
 Wed, Jan 7 262 Western Carolina W 82 - 77 66% -6  7 - 7 2 - 1 -4 +5 C- C A- -9 A- F D
 Sat, Jan 10 277 @Chattanooga L 79 - 88 46% -14  7 - 8 2 - 2 -13 +1 C+ F B+ -13 D+ C F
 Wed, Jan 14 157 Furman L 73 - 77 45% -2  7 - 9 2 - 3 -7 -1 C- D- B -6 C+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 140 East Tennessee St. L 75 - 76 40% -5  7 - 10 2 - 4 -3 +13 B+ D+ A+ -16 F+ C F
 Wed, Jan 21 188 @Wofford L 78 - 88 30% -1  7 - 11 2 - 5 -9 +9 B- C B+ -19 F C F+
 Sat, Jan 24 277 Chattanooga W 75 - 64 69% +1  8 - 11 3 - 5 +1 +7 D F+ A+ -4 C C- F+
 Thu, Jan 29 157 @Furman L 73 - 78 24% -4  8 - 12 3 - 6 -2 +8 D+ B- A+ -11 F+ F B-
 Sun, Feb 1 262 @Western Carolina L 79 - 81 44%
 Thu, Feb 5 345 The Citadel W 77 - 67 83%
 Sat, Feb 7 148 Mercer L 80 - 82 41%
 Wed, Feb 11 188 Wofford W 78 - 77 51%
 Sat, Feb 14 140 @East Tennessee St. L 70 - 79 20%
 Thu, Feb 19 345 @The Citadel W 74 - 70 65%
 Sat, Feb 21 148 @Mercer L 77 - 85 22%
 Thu, Feb 26 357 VMI W 83 - 70 89%
 Sat, Feb 28 313 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 74 76%
Totals 13 - 16 8 - 10 -4 +0 D+ D A- -5 C- C D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.4 1.3 0.1 1.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.6 1.4 0.0 6.1 4th
5th 0.3 6.5 13.5 6.1 0.4 26.7 5th
6th 0.1 6.5 15.0 6.2 0.3 28.1 6th
7th 0.0 2.6 11.3 4.6 0.3 18.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 6.2 3.9 0.1 11.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.0 2.8 0.2 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.1 0.9 4.0 11.7 22.2 26.2 21.0 10.4 3.2 0.4 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 11.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.4% 19.8% 19.8% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 3.2% 11.6% 11.6% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.8
10-8 10.4% 8.2% 8.2% 15.4 0.0 0.5 0.3 9.6
9-9 21.0% 5.9% 5.9% 15.6 0.0 0.5 0.7 19.8
8-10 26.2% 4.0% 4.0% 15.9 0.1 1.0 25.2
7-11 22.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5 21.8
6-12 11.7% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 11.5
5-13 4.0% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 3.9
4-14 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 15.6 95.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%