Samford
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -2.0 193
Results Rating -2.5 208
Consistency 0.17 270
Pace 68.3 185
Improvement +6.3 17

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 153 C- D B+ B- C-
Defense C- 250 C- C+ D- C A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 307 B- 61% 96 -1.6 239
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 223 D+ 35% 279 -0.8 224
Three Pointers 46% 85 D+ 32% 264 +1.1 145
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.3 225 C- -0.9 209
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 211
Second Chance D- 23.9% 337 C+ 1.07 119 D 0.26 308
Opponents' Steals B+ 7.5% 24
Other Turnovers B- 6.5% 80
Turnovers B+ 13.9% 29
Freethrows B+ 0.35 40 D 69% 299 B- 0.24 103
Total Offense C +0.4 153

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 52% 117 D+ 12.7% 283
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 14% 337 C 5.2% 195
Three Pointers C+ 86% 151 B- 0.5% 95
Total C+ 57% 143 C 5.6% 193


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 240 C+ 57% 141 -1.4 123
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 11 D 42% 314 +4.6 364
Three Pointers 34% 351 D 37% 299 -2.4 78
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- -1.3 23 D+ +2.1 270
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 205
Second Chance B 26.4% 50 D 1.13 309 C+ 0.30 139
Turnovers from Steals F+ 6.3% 352
Other Turnovers C- 7.0% 213
Turnovers D- 13.3% 345
Freethrows C+ 0.29 136 D 75% 317 C 0.21 164
Total Defense C- -2.4 250

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 101 D 7.8% 308
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 180 C 5.2% 141
Three Pointers B+ 77% 27 D+ 0.3% 304
Total B+ 48% 35 D+ 4.5% 259

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 203 17.2 165
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 315 0.16 156
Consistency 0.12 141 0.14 293
Improvement +2.8 63 +3.5 37

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 206 193 170
Results Rating Rank 227 205 145
Conference Record 11 - 7 11 - 7 11 - 7
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16% 24% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.8 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round16% 24% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 33 - 64 - 9
Quad 413 - 517 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 180 @Tulane L 72 - 85 36% -6  16% 0 - 1 D -11 C+ +3 C- B+ C+ F -16 F A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 7 359 South Carolina St. W 82 - 72 94% +1  44% 1 - 1 D -9 D+ -4 F+ D B+ D -6 C- D D-
 Wed, Nov 12 300 @Texas Southern W 93 - 90 OT 62% -1  30% 2 - 1 C- -2 B +6 D B- B+ F+ -9 F A F
 Fri, Nov 14 19 @Arkansas L 75 - 79 3% -8  1% 2 - 2 A- +17 B- +4 C+ D A+ A+ +13 A A+ C+
 Sun, Nov 16 170 @Central Arkansas W 84 - 77 OT 35% -3  17% 3 - 2 B +9 C+ +3 C- F A+ B+ +5 B- B+ D+
 Wed, Nov 19 268 Florida Gulf Coast L 62 - 77 75% -9  6% 3 - 3 F -24 F -17 F F B- D- -7 F+ F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 174 @New Mexico St. L 72 - 81 35% -10  4% 3 - 4 D+ -7 B- +5 D- C A+ F -13 F F F
 Tue, Nov 25 298 Georgia St. W 78 - 63 72% +7  90% 4 - 4 B- +7 C +1 C- B+ F+ B+ +6 A+ D- D
 Wed, Nov 26 97 Utah Valley L 45 - 89 24% -23  1% 4 - 5 F -38 F -28 F F D+ F+ -8 D- C- D
 Fri, Dec 5 50 @Virginia Commonwealth L 57 - 83 7% -7  40% 4 - 6 D- -12 F -13 F F B+ C+ +1 C- C B-
 Sun, Dec 7 164 Cornell W 93 - 90 55% -3  23% 5 - 6 C -0 C +1 B C C C- -2 A+ D F
 Thu, Jan 1 358 @VMI W 78 - 58 85% +4  46% 6 - 6 1 - 0 B- +7 D+ -3 B- F A A +10 B+ B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 299 @UNC Greensboro L 82 - 89 62% -8  1% 6 - 7 1 - 1 D- -12 B +7 C- C+ A F -20 D- F F
 Wed, Jan 7 229 Western Carolina W 82 - 77 68% -6  10% 7 - 7 2 - 1 C- -2 B- +4 C C A D -6 A- F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 286 @Chattanooga L 79 - 88 58% -14  1% 7 - 8 2 - 2 D- -13 D+ -3 C+ F B F -10 D+ B- F
 Wed, Jan 14 183 Furman L 73 - 77 61% -2  32% 7 - 9 2 - 3 D -9 D+ -4 D+ D B- D+ -5 C C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 141 East Tennessee St. L 75 - 76 50% -5  2% 7 - 10 2 - 4 C- -3 A- +11 B+ D A+ F -14 F+ C F
 Wed, Jan 21 242 @Wofford L 78 - 88 48% -1  28% 7 - 11 2 - 5 D- -11 B- +4 C+ C B+ F -17 F C F
 Sat, Jan 24 286 Chattanooga W 75 - 64 78% +1  52% 8 - 11 3 - 5 C +1 C+ +3 D F+ A+ C -1 C C+ F+
 Thu, Jan 29 183 @Furman L 73 - 78 38% -4  8% 8 - 12 3 - 6 C- -4 B +6 D B+ A+ F+ -10 F F B
 Sun, Feb 1 229 @Western Carolina W 88 - 74 46% +8  89% 9 - 12 4 - 6 B+ +13 B +7 B C+ D+ B+ +6 A- A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 345 The Citadel W 78 - 64 90% +6  96% 10 - 12 5 - 6 C- -2 C +1 B F C C- -2 C F C-
 Sat, Feb 7 177 Mercer W 69 - 49 58% +15  94% 11 - 12 6 - 6 A- +16 D- -6 D+ F B A+ +24 A+ A+ D-
 Wed, Feb 11 242 Wofford W 97 - 80 70% +13  95% 12 - 12 7 - 6 B +10 A- +11 A+ A- D- C- -2 C A- F
 Sat, Feb 14 141 @East Tennessee St. W 82 - 72 OT 28% +2  58% 13 - 12 8 - 6 B+ +14 C+ +3 F A A+ A +11 A- B- C
 Thu, Feb 19 345 @The Citadel W 78 - 75 77% +5  74% 14 - 12 9 - 6 D+ -7 D+ -3 B F D- D+ -3 C C F
 Sat, Feb 21 177 @Mercer L 86 - 89 35% -2  19% 14 - 13 9 - 7 C -1 B+ +9 D+ C- A+ F -10 F B+ B
 Thu, Feb 26 358 VMI W 80 - 61 94% +2  54% 15 - 13 10 - 7 C -0 C- -2 B- F+ B B- +3 C+ C C-
 Sat, Feb 28 299 UNC Greensboro W 87 - 78 81% +8  92% 16 - 13 11 - 7 C- -2 C -0 B+ C+ F C- -2 B- D+ F
 Sat, Mar 7 183 Furman L 72 - 73 49%
Totals 16 - 14 11 - 7 -2 C +0 B C- C- C- -2 D+ D B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B- D+ D+ C- 34% 34% 46% C- C- D- C+ D B+ B+ D B- C- C+ D D D+ 37% 30% 34% A- C- B D C+ D- C+ D C
1.09 61% 35% 32% -1 0 1.00 24% 1.1 .26 14% .35 69% .24 1.12 57% 42% 37% +2 -1 1.04 26% 1.1 .30 13% .29 75% .26
Nov
3		 Tulane C+ D+ F A- C+ 25% 27% 48% F+ C- B- B+ B+ C+ C F D F F+ F F F 29% 29% 41% A+ F A+ B+ A+ D- A+ F A
1.11 54% 29% 40% +1 -2 1.00 37% 1.1 .41 17% .31 59% .18 1.31 67% 60% 52% +20 -2 1.39 9% 1.0 .09 12% .23 92% .21
Nov
7		 South Carolina St. D+ F F B- F 48% 4% 48% B F+ F A+ D B+ A+ F A+ D A+ F B- D 21% 42% 37% A C- A+ F D D- C+ F D-
1.14 50% 0% 36% -4 +3 1.00 26% 1.4 .38 14% .60 65% .39 1.00 36% 50% 32% -1 -4 0.92 19% 1.8 .34 18% .30 83% .25
Nov
12		 Texas Southern B F A+ D+ D 37% 8% 55% B- D F A+ B- B+ A+ D+ A+ F+ C- B+ F F 39% 36% 25% A- F A+ C+ A F C B C+
1.20 47% 75% 32% -3 +2 1.00 20% 2.0 .40 13% .65 68% .44 1.16 58% 32% 67% +10 -2 1.18 16% 1.0 .16 8% .29 67% .20
Nov
14		 Arkansas B- C- D+ C C+ 39% 20% 41% C+ C+ D D D A+ F A+ D A+ A F+ D- B 31% 41% 28% A+ A A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ D+ D+
1.04 54% 33% 32% -4 0 0.95 24% 1.1 .26 11% .16 90% .14 1.10 53% 45% 40% +4 -3 1.04 24% 0.8 .19 12% .35 77% .27
Nov
16		 Central Arkansas C+ A+ F C C 22% 14% 64% D C- D- F F A+ C- C- C- B+ D A+ C+ B- 45% 24% 31% C+ B- D+ A+ B+ D+ F A+ C-
1.12 85% 13% 34% +3 0 1.07 21% 0.9 .19 9% .26 72% .19 1.02 65% 14% 33% -3 0 0.97 30% 0.7 .21 15% .36 57% .20
Nov
19		 Florida Gulf Coast F F A+ F F 36% 22% 42% D+ F C+ F F B- B+ F D- D- B+ F D F 38% 40% 23% A- F+ F C- F A+ D+ B+ C
0.90 39% 55% 24% -10 0 0.82 32% 0.7 .21 15% .41 54% .22 1.12 50% 63% 36% +8 -3 1.13 42% 1.1 .45 25% .29 67% .19
Nov
21		 New Mexico St. B- B B- F D- 27% 20% 53% C D- D A C A+ C- C C- F F+ D+ F F 36% 34% 30% B- F C F F F C- D+ C-
1.16 64% 40% 22% -7 -1 0.86 26% 1.4 .37 5% .35 76% .27 1.30 67% 41% 47% +10 -2 1.18 32% 1.3 .43 10% .28 75% .21
Nov
25		 Georgia St. C B+ F D- D+ 42% 12% 47% B C- D+ A+ B+ F+ A+ D A+ B+ A+ A- A+ A+ 27% 14% 59% F A+ F+ C- D- D F F F
1.11 67% 20% 30% -1 +1 1.02 31% 1.3 .41 20% .61 68% .41 0.90 29% 29% 17% -25 0 0.53 33% 1.1 .35 14% .45 89% .40
Nov
26		 Utah Valley F F F F F 34% 21% 45% D+ F C F F D+ F F F F+ D+ C- F D- 64% 14% 21% D D- B+ F+ C- D B F C
0.61 22% 27% 25% -21 0 0.60 30% 0.6 .18 22% .21 42% .09 1.21 64% 38% 42% +6 +3 1.20 32% 1.2 .39 18% .25 80% .20
Dec
5		 Virginia Commonwealth F A- F F F 38% 25% 37% D+ F F+ F F B+ B- D C C+ A C- F D+ 40% 13% 46% C+ C- F+ A- C B- C A+ A-
0.81 65% 23% 11% -14 -1 0.73 20% 0.7 .14 14% .32 68% .22 1.18 48% 43% 46% +5 +1 1.13 40% 0.9 .38 17% .38 59% .22
Dec
7		 Cornell C A+ B+ F B+ 41% 22% 37% D+ B D- A+ C C A+ C- A+ C- A+ D- B- A 27% 23% 50% A+ A+ F+ C D F C+ A- B-
1.21 86% 45% 26% +9 0 1.20 24% 1.4 .33 14% .50 70% .35 1.17 44% 47% 33% -2 -1 0.95 37% 1.1 .41 12% .28 68% .19
Jan
1		 VMI D+ A+ F A+ B 31% 25% 44% D B- F F F A A+ F A- A F C A+ B- 17% 31% 52% A+ B+ C+ A+ B+ D+ A- D B+
1.16 93% 17% 43% +11 -1 1.23 26% 0.3 .08 12% .46 59% .27 0.86 67% 35% 21% -9 -3 0.78 24% 0.7 .17 15% .21 75% .16
Jan
3		 UNC Greensboro B A+ F F C- 31% 14% 55% C+ C- C B- C+ A A+ F B+ F A C+ F F 32% 44% 24% A+ D- D+ F F F F D F
1.26 87% 29% 30% +4 0 1.10 31% 1.2 .36 9% .40 58% .24 1.36 44% 36% 67% +6 -3 1.08 29% 1.4 .40 3% .47 73% .35
Jan
7		 Western Carolina B- D B A- C 37% 21% 42% C- C C- B C A B A+ A+ D A- A+ F A 52% 28% 20% C A- F F F D+ F F F
1.22 53% 45% 41% +4 0 1.10 26% 1.1 .29 10% .35 90% .31 1.14 46% 21% 40% -9 0 0.84 41% 1.5 .59 15% .44 88% .38
Jan
10		 Chattanooga D+ A+ F D+ C+ 42% 17% 42% C+ C+ F C+ F B A+ F A+ F B C- F+ C- 50% 20% 30% F+ D+ A+ F B- F F F F
1.08 77% 11% 32% +2 +1 1.08 14% 1.2 .17 11% .55 61% .34 1.20 53% 42% 39% +1 +1 1.05 9% 2.0 .18 4% .34 92% .31
Jan
14		 Furman D+ B+ F F D 46% 15% 38% B+ D+ F A+ D B- A+ A A+ D+ C F A C- 27% 24% 49% A+ C F A+ C+ F C+ C- C+
1.04 63% 25% 25% -5 +1 0.94 18% 1.3 .24 13% .38 78% .29 1.10 60% 69% 26% +2 -1 1.04 37% 0.7 .27 14% .27 69% .18
Jan
17		 East Tennessee St. A- F+ A+ A+ A 24% 16% 60% D B+ F A D A+ F+ A+ D+ F F C F F 31% 44% 24% A+ F+ A+ F C F C F F+
1.25 50% 50% 43% +8 0 1.18 19% 1.2 .22 10% .24 85% .20 1.26 79% 40% 45% +11 -4 1.18 17% 1.8 .30 10% .31 94% .30
Jan
21		 Wofford B- A- A+ F C+ 41% 12% 47% C+ C+ D+ B C B+ F+ C+ D- F F F F F 55% 19% 26% D+ F A+ F C F F D F
1.19 67% 67% 29% +3 +1 1.12 27% 1.3 .33 12% .24 79% .19 1.34 69% 56% 50% +16 +1 1.36 14% 2.0 .29 11% .41 75% .31
Jan
24		 Chattanooga C+ F A+ F+ F+ 40% 4% 56% A- D F+ C- F+ A+ A+ F A+ C A D D C 24% 20% 56% B- C B+ F C+ F+ F A+ F+
1.21 47% 100% 30% -5 +2 0.96 24% 1.1 .26 6% .62 64% .40 1.03 45% 44% 36% 0 -1 1.00 15% 1.4 .21 11% .38 67% .25
Jan
29		 Furman B D A+ F C 18% 38% 44% F D B+ C+ B+ A+ A+ F B- F+ F F A+ F 37% 23% 40% A- F C F F B F F F
1.13 50% 52% 25% -2 -4 0.91 36% 1.1 .39 6% .36 55% .20 1.21 81% 70% 24% +10 0 1.21 29% 1.7 .50 22% .40 75% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Western Carolina B A+ F B+ B 36% 11% 52% B B C+ C- C+ D+ A+ C- A+ B+ B B+ A A- 35% 26% 39% B+ A- A+ A A+ F F+ D F
1.21 75% 20% 39% +8 +1 1.20 30% 1.0 .30 17% .68 73% .50 1.02 50% 33% 27% -8 -1 0.84 23% 0.8 .18 10% .37 75% .28
Feb
5		 The Citadel C C+ B+ A+ A- 30% 24% 46% F B D F F C A+ C- A+ C- C- F A+ D+ 30% 34% 36% A+ C F D- F C- C- A+ B+
1.20 64% 45% 48% +13 -1 1.26 28% 0.6 .17 15% .47 69% .33 0.99 57% 56% 18% -3 -2 0.91 34% 1.1 .37 17% .28 47% .13
Feb
7		 Mercer D- C A D- C- 34% 26% 40% D D+ F A+ F B A C- A A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 33% 40% 27% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- B+ D B-
1.05 56% 50% 32% +1 -1 1.02 13% 1.5 .20 15% .36 75% .27 0.74 35% 29% 21% -16 -3 0.63 22% 0.4 .09 14% .30 76% .23
Feb
11		 Wofford A- A+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 18% 47% D+ A+ D- A+ A- D- A- D- B C- B- D- C- D 32% 30% 38% A+ C A+ F A- F D+ B+ C
1.33 78% 56% 50% +21 0 1.45 23% 2.0 .45 18% .37 73% .27 1.10 53% 44% 35% +1 -2 1.00 11% 1.8 .19 5% .35 67% .23
Feb
14		 East Tennessee St. C+ D F F F 36% 15% 49% C F F+ A+ A A+ A+ B A+ A A D- A A 42% 24% 35% B- A- A- D- B- C D+ C- D
1.09 53% 14% 26% -11 +1 0.81 21% 2.0 .42 13% .61 78% .48 0.96 48% 46% 26% -6 0 0.89 21% 1.3 .26 16% .35 77% .27
Feb
19		 The Citadel D+ A+ F B+ B 39% 14% 47% C- B D- F F D- B F C- D+ C A+ D- D+ 29% 27% 44% A C A+ F C F A+ F A+
1.10 79% 29% 39% +10 +1 1.24 27% 0.7 .18 18% .33 58% .19 1.06 56% 24% 37% -3 -2 0.94 17% 1.6 .26 8% .12 75% .09
Feb
21		 Mercer B+ C+ D- A C- 39% 37% 25% F D+ D- B+ C- A+ A A+ A+ F F F F F 33% 31% 35% A- F A+ F B+ B F C+ F+
1.22 59% 33% 43% +2 -2 1.02 27% 1.1 .30 9% .36 87% .31 1.26 94% 53% 41% +20 -2 1.40 22% 1.2 .26 18% .44 72% .31
Feb
26		 VMI C- A+ F B- C+ 29% 10% 60% B- B- F A F+ B B C B B- F A+ A+ C+ 29% 18% 53% B C+ C C+ C C- C+ B B-
1.22 86% 20% 38% +10 +1 1.23 23% 1.3 .29 14% .34 74% .25 0.93 71% 22% 23% -8 0 0.86 26% 0.9 .23 15% .27 67% .18
Feb
28		 UNC Greensboro C F D- A+ A- 28% 17% 56% C B+ D+ A C+ F F D+ F C- A+ C+ F B- 40% 31% 29% B- B- A- F D+ F C+ C+ C+
1.20 47% 33% 53% +12 0 1.26 27% 1.3 .36 19% .17 70% .12 1.07 27% 35% 56% -3 -1 0.93 21% 1.5 .31 11% .34 68% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 100.0% 15.9% 15.9% 14.8 0.2 4.3 9.5 1.8 84.1
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% 14.8 84.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 15.9% 100.0% 14.8 1.4 27.1 60.0 11.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 19.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 30.3%
Lose Out 34.4%