Samford
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -1.9 191
Results Rating -2.5 207
Consistency 0.17 289
Pace 68.2 191
Improvement +5.9 14

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 147 C- D B+ B- C-
Defense D+ 255 C- C+ F+ C A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 303 B- 61% 96 -1.2 228
2 Pt. Jumpers 35% 220 D+ 35% 263 -0.5 210
Three Pointers 45% 97 D+ 31% 288 +0.3 166
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.3 229 C- -1.2 214
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 219
Second Chance D- 24.1% 336 C+ 1.06 134 D 0.25 308
Turnovers from Steals A- 7.2% 14
Other Turnovers B- 6.4% 73
Turnovers B+ 13.6% 23
Freethrows B+ 0.36 25 D 68% 305 B- 0.25 83
Total Offense C +0.7 147

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 52% 118 D+ 12.7% 281
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 14% 332 C 5.0% 186
Three Pointers C+ 87% 130 B- 0.6% 98
Total C+ 57% 146 C 5.6% 196

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 241 C 57% 164 -1.3 125
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 10 D- 43% 329 +5.0 364
Three Pointers 33% 354 D+ 36% 285 -2.7 67
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- -1.3 21 D+ +2.3 271
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 214
Second Chance B 26.3% 49 D 1.12 304 C+ 0.30 132
Turnovers from Steals F+ 6.3% 352
Other Turnovers C- 6.9% 242
Turnovers F+ 13.2% 347
Freethrows C+ 0.29 150 D 75% 317 C 0.22 176
Total Defense D+ -2.7 255

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 98 D+ 8.1% 298
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 25% 176 C+ 5.6% 118
Three Pointers B+ 78% 34 D+ 0.4% 300
Total B+ 48% 30 C- 4.8% 241

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 192 17.3 179
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 315 0.16 154
Consistency 0.12 169 0.14 297
Improvement +3.4 43 +2.6 55

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 217 192 164
Results Rating Rank 234 209 145
Conference Record 10 - 8 11 - 7 11 - 7
Conference Finish 5 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15% 15% 8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.8 15.6
.500 or above 99% 100% 87%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 1%
First Round15% 15% 8%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: VMI (Home) - 95.4% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 32 - 63 - 9
Quad 414 - 517 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 159 @Tulane L 72 - 85 32% -6  16% 0 - 1 D -10 B- +4 C- B+ C+ F -15 F A+ D
 Fri, Nov 7 357 South Carolina St. W 82 - 72 93% +1  44% 1 - 1 D -9 D+ -3 F+ D B+ D -6 C- D D-
 Wed, Nov 12 306 @Texas Southern W 93 - 90 OT 64% -1  30% 2 - 1 C- -3 B +6 D B- B+ F+ -9 F A F
 Fri, Nov 14 16 @Arkansas L 75 - 79 3% -8  1% 2 - 2 A- +17 B- +4 B- D A+ A+ +13 A A+ C+
 Sun, Nov 16 181 @Central Arkansas W 84 - 77 OT 37% -3  17% 3 - 2 B +9 B- +4 C F A+ B +4 B- B+ D+
 Wed, Nov 19 252 Florida Gulf Coast L 62 - 77 72% -9  6% 3 - 3 F -23 F -17 F F+ B- D -6 D- F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 162 @New Mexico St. L 72 - 81 33% -10  4% 3 - 4 D+ -6 B- +5 D C A+ F -13 F F F
 Tue, Nov 25 292 Georgia St. W 78 - 63 71% +7  90% 4 - 4 B- +7 C +1 C- B+ F+ B+ +6 A+ D- D
 Wed, Nov 26 95 Utah Valley L 45 - 89 23% -23  1% 4 - 5 F -38 F -28 F F+ C- F+ -8 D- C D-
 Fri, Dec 5 49 @Virginia Commonwealth L 57 - 83 7% -7  40% 4 - 6 D- -12 F -13 F F B+ C+ +1 C- C B-
 Sun, Dec 7 171 Cornell W 93 - 90 57% -3  23% 5 - 6 C -1 C +1 B C C C- -2 A+ D- F
 Thu, Jan 1 359 @VMI W 78 - 58 86% +4  46% 6 - 6 1 - 0 B- +7 D+ -2 B- F A A +10 B+ B D+
 Sat, Jan 3 301 @UNC Greensboro L 82 - 89 63% -8  1% 6 - 7 1 - 1 D- -12 B +6 C- C+ A F -19 D- F F
 Wed, Jan 7 250 Western Carolina W 82 - 77 72% -6  10% 7 - 7 2 - 1 C- -3 C+ +3 C- C A D -6 A- F D
 Sat, Jan 10 275 @Chattanooga L 79 - 88 56% -14  1% 7 - 8 2 - 2 D- -12 D+ -2 C+ F B+ F+ -10 D+ B- F
 Wed, Jan 14 177 Furman L 73 - 77 58% -2  32% 7 - 9 2 - 3 D+ -8 D+ -4 C- D B- D+ -5 C+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 132 East Tennessee St. L 75 - 76 47% -5  2% 7 - 10 2 - 4 C- -2 A +11 B+ D A+ F -13 F+ C F
 Wed, Jan 21 240 @Wofford L 78 - 88 48% -1  28% 7 - 11 2 - 5 D- -11 B- +5 B- C- B+ F -17 F C- F
 Sat, Jan 24 275 Chattanooga W 75 - 64 76% +1  52% 8 - 11 3 - 5 C +2 B- +4 D F+ A+ C -1 C C+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 177 @Furman L 73 - 78 35% -4  8% 8 - 12 3 - 6 C- -3 B +6 D B+ A+ F+ -9 F F B
 Sun, Feb 1 250 @Western Carolina W 88 - 74 50% +8  89% 9 - 12 4 - 6 B+ +12 B +6 B C D+ B+ +5 A- A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 348 The Citadel W 78 - 64 90% +6  96% 10 - 12 5 - 6 C- -2 C +1 B F C- C- -2 C F D+
 Sat, Feb 7 178 Mercer W 69 - 49 58% +15  94% 11 - 12 6 - 6 A- +16 D -6 D+ F B A+ +23 A+ A+ D-
 Wed, Feb 11 240 Wofford W 97 - 80 70% +13  95% 12 - 12 7 - 6 B +10 A +11 A+ A- D- C- -2 C B+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 132 @East Tennessee St. W 82 - 72 OT 25% +2  58% 13 - 12 8 - 6 A- +15 C+ +3 F A A+ A +11 A- B C
 Thu, Feb 19 348 @The Citadel W 78 - 75 78% +5  74% 14 - 12 9 - 6 D+ -7 D+ -3 B- F F+ D+ -4 C- C F
 Sat, Feb 21 178 @Mercer L 86 - 89 35% -2  19% 14 - 13 9 - 7 C -1 B+ +9 D+ C- A+ F -10 F B+ B-
 Thu, Feb 26 359 VMI W 85 - 68 95%
 Sat, Feb 28 301 UNC Greensboro W 83 - 74 81%
Totals 16 - 13 11 - 7 -2 C +1 F C- C- D+ -3 D+ D B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B- D+ D+ C- 34% 35% 45% C- C- D- C+ D B+ B+ D B- D+ C D- D+ D+ 37% 30% 33% A- C- B D C+ F+ C+ D C
1.10 61% 35% 31% -1 0 0.99 24% 1.1 .25 14% .36 68% .25 1.12 57% 43% 36% +2 -1 1.04 26% 1.1 .30 13% .29 75% .27
Nov
3		 Tulane B- D+ F A- C+ 25% 27% 48% F+ C- B- B+ B+ C+ C- F D- F D- F F F 29% 29% 41% A+ F A+ A- A+ D A+ F A
1.11 54% 29% 40% +1 -2 1.00 37% 1.1 .41 17% .31 59% .18 1.31 67% 60% 52% +20 -2 1.39 9% 1.0 .09 12% .23 92% .21
Nov
7		 South Carolina St. D+ F F B- F 48% 4% 48% B F+ F A D B+ A+ F A+ D A+ F B- D+ 21% 42% 37% A C- A+ F D D- C+ F D-
1.14 50% 0% 36% -4 +3 1.00 26% 1.4 .38 14% .60 65% .39 1.00 36% 50% 32% -1 -4 0.92 19% 1.8 .34 18% .30 83% .25
Nov
12		 Texas Southern B F A+ D+ D- 37% 8% 55% B- D F A+ B- B+ A+ D+ A+ F+ C- B+ F F 39% 36% 25% A- F A+ B- A F C B C+
1.20 47% 75% 32% -3 +2 1.00 20% 2.0 .40 13% .65 68% .44 1.16 58% 32% 67% +10 -2 1.18 16% 1.0 .16 8% .29 67% .20
Nov
14		 Arkansas B- C- D+ C B- 39% 20% 41% C+ B- D D D A+ F A+ D+ A+ A D- D- B+ 31% 41% 28% A+ A A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ D+ D
1.04 54% 33% 32% -4 0 0.95 24% 1.1 .26 11% .16 90% .14 1.10 53% 45% 40% +4 -3 1.04 24% 0.8 .19 12% .35 77% .27
Nov
16		 Central Arkansas B- A+ F C C 22% 14% 64% D+ C D- F F A+ C- C C- B D A+ C+ B- 45% 24% 31% C+ B- D+ A+ B+ D+ F A+ D+
1.12 85% 13% 34% +3 0 1.07 21% 0.9 .19 9% .26 72% .19 1.02 65% 14% 33% -3 0 0.97 30% 0.7 .21 15% .36 57% .20
Nov
19		 Florida Gulf Coast F F A+ F F 36% 22% 42% D+ F C+ F F+ B- B+ F D- D A- F D F 38% 40% 23% A- D- F C- F A+ D+ B+ C
0.90 39% 55% 24% -10 0 0.82 32% 0.7 .21 15% .41 54% .22 1.12 50% 63% 36% +8 -3 1.13 42% 1.1 .45 25% .29 67% .19
Nov
21		 New Mexico St. B- B B F D- 27% 20% 53% C D D A C A+ C- C C- F F+ D+ F F 36% 34% 30% B- F C F F F C- D+ C-
1.16 64% 40% 22% -7 -1 0.86 26% 1.4 .37 5% .35 76% .27 1.30 67% 41% 47% +10 -2 1.18 32% 1.3 .43 10% .28 75% .21
Nov
25		 Georgia St. C B+ F D- C- 42% 12% 47% B C- D+ A+ B+ F+ A+ D A+ B+ A+ A- A+ A+ 27% 14% 59% F A+ F+ C- D- D F F F
1.11 67% 20% 30% -1 +1 1.02 31% 1.3 .41 20% .61 68% .41 0.90 29% 29% 17% -25 0 0.53 33% 1.1 .35 14% .45 89% .40
Nov
26		 Utah Valley F F F F F 34% 21% 45% C- F C F F+ C- F F F F+ D+ C- F D- 64% 14% 21% D D- B+ F+ C D- B F C
0.61 22% 27% 25% -21 0 0.60 30% 0.6 .18 22% .21 42% .09 1.21 64% 38% 42% +6 +3 1.20 32% 1.2 .39 18% .25 80% .20
Dec
5		 Virginia Commonwealth F A- F F F 38% 25% 37% D+ F F F F B+ B- D+ C+ C+ A C- F D+ 40% 13% 46% C+ C- F+ A- C B- C A+ A-
0.81 65% 23% 11% -14 -1 0.73 20% 0.7 .14 14% .32 68% .22 1.18 48% 43% 46% +5 +1 1.13 40% 0.9 .38 17% .38 59% .22
Dec
7		 Cornell C A+ B+ F B 41% 22% 37% D+ B D- A+ C C A+ C- A+ C- A+ D- B- A 27% 23% 50% A+ A+ F+ C D- F C+ B+ B-
1.21 86% 45% 26% +9 0 1.20 24% 1.4 .33 14% .50 70% .35 1.17 44% 47% 33% -2 -1 0.95 37% 1.1 .41 12% .28 68% .19
Jan
1		 VMI D+ A+ F A+ B 31% 25% 44% D B- F F F A A+ F B+ A F C A+ B- 17% 31% 52% A+ B+ C+ A B D+ A- D B+
1.16 93% 17% 43% +11 -1 1.23 26% 0.3 .08 12% .46 59% .27 0.86 67% 35% 21% -9 -3 0.78 24% 0.7 .17 15% .21 75% .16
Jan
3		 UNC Greensboro B A+ F F D+ 31% 14% 55% C+ C- C B- C+ A A+ F B+ F A+ C F F 32% 44% 24% A+ D- D+ F F F F D F
1.26 87% 29% 30% +4 0 1.10 31% 1.2 .36 9% .40 58% .24 1.36 44% 36% 67% +6 -3 1.08 29% 1.4 .40 3% .47 73% .35
Jan
7		 Western Carolina C+ D B A- C 37% 21% 42% C- C- C- B C A B- A+ A D A- A+ F A 52% 28% 20% C A- F F F D F F F
1.22 53% 45% 41% +4 0 1.10 26% 1.1 .29 10% .35 90% .31 1.14 46% 21% 40% -9 0 0.84 41% 1.5 .59 15% .44 88% .38
Jan
10		 Chattanooga D+ A+ F D+ C+ 42% 17% 42% C+ C+ F B- F B+ A+ F A+ F+ B C- F+ C- 50% 20% 30% F+ D+ A+ F B- F F+ F F
1.08 77% 11% 32% +2 +1 1.08 14% 1.2 .17 11% .55 61% .34 1.20 53% 42% 39% +1 +1 1.05 9% 2.0 .18 4% .34 92% .31
Jan
14		 Furman D+ B F F D 46% 15% 38% B+ C- F A+ D B- A+ A- A+ D+ C+ F A C- 27% 24% 49% A+ C+ F A+ C+ F C+ C- C+
1.04 63% 25% 25% -5 +1 0.94 18% 1.3 .24 13% .38 78% .29 1.10 60% 69% 26% +2 -1 1.04 37% 0.7 .27 14% .27 69% .18
Jan
17		 East Tennessee St. A F+ A+ A+ A 24% 16% 60% D B+ F A D A+ D- A+ D+ F F C F F 31% 44% 24% A+ F+ A+ F C F C F F+
1.25 50% 50% 43% +8 0 1.18 19% 1.2 .22 10% .24 85% .20 1.26 79% 40% 45% +11 -4 1.18 17% 1.8 .30 10% .31 94% .30
Jan
21		 Wofford B- A- A+ F C+ 41% 12% 47% C+ B- D+ B C- B+ D- C D- F F F F F 55% 19% 26% D+ F A+ F C- F F D F
1.19 67% 67% 29% +3 +1 1.12 27% 1.3 .33 12% .24 79% .19 1.34 69% 56% 50% +16 +1 1.36 14% 2.0 .29 11% .41 75% .31
Jan
24		 Chattanooga B- F A+ D- D- 40% 4% 56% A D F C- F+ A+ A+ F A+ C A D D C 24% 20% 56% B- C B+ F C+ F F A D-
1.21 47% 100% 30% -5 +2 0.96 24% 1.1 .26 6% .62 64% .40 1.03 45% 44% 36% 0 -1 1.00 15% 1.4 .21 11% .38 67% .25
Jan
29		 Furman B D A+ F C 18% 38% 44% F D B+ B- B+ A+ A+ F B- F+ F F A+ F 37% 23% 40% A- F C F F B F F F
1.13 50% 52% 25% -2 -4 0.91 36% 1.1 .39 6% .36 55% .20 1.21 81% 70% 24% +10 0 1.21 29% 1.7 .50 22% .40 75% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Western Carolina B A+ F B+ B 36% 11% 52% B B C+ C- C D+ A+ D+ A+ B+ B B A A- 35% 26% 39% B+ A- A+ A A+ F F D- F
1.21 75% 20% 39% +8 +1 1.20 30% 1.0 .30 17% .68 73% .50 1.02 50% 33% 27% -8 -1 0.84 23% 0.8 .18 10% .37 75% .28
Feb
5		 The Citadel C C+ B+ A+ A- 30% 24% 46% F B D F F C- A+ C A+ C- C- F A+ D+ 30% 34% 36% A+ C F D- F D+ C- A+ B+
1.20 64% 45% 48% +13 -1 1.26 28% 0.6 .17 15% .47 69% .33 0.99 57% 56% 18% -3 -2 0.91 34% 1.1 .37 17% .28 47% .13
Feb
7		 Mercer D C A D- C- 34% 26% 40% D D+ F A+ F B A+ C- A A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 33% 40% 27% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- B D+ B-
1.05 56% 50% 32% +1 -1 1.02 13% 1.5 .20 15% .36 75% .27 0.74 35% 29% 21% -16 -3 0.63 22% 0.4 .09 14% .30 76% .23
Feb
11		 Wofford A A+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 18% 47% D+ A+ F+ A+ A- D- A- D- B C- B- D- C- D 32% 30% 38% A+ C A+ F B+ F C- B+ C
1.33 78% 56% 50% +21 0 1.45 23% 2.0 .45 18% .37 73% .27 1.10 53% 44% 35% +1 -2 1.00 11% 1.8 .19 5% .35 67% .23
Feb
14		 East Tennessee St. C+ D- F F F 36% 15% 49% C F F+ A+ A A+ A+ B- A+ A A D- A A 42% 24% 35% B- A- A- D- B C D+ C D+
1.09 53% 14% 26% -11 +1 0.81 21% 2.0 .42 13% .61 78% .48 0.96 48% 46% 26% -6 0 0.89 21% 1.3 .26 16% .35 77% .27
Feb
19		 The Citadel D+ A+ F B+ B 39% 14% 47% C B- D F F F+ B F C- D+ C A+ D- D+ 29% 27% 44% A- C- A+ F C F A+ F A+
1.10 79% 29% 39% +10 +1 1.24 27% 0.7 .18 18% .33 58% .19 1.06 56% 24% 37% -3 -2 0.94 17% 1.6 .26 8% .12 75% .09
Feb
21		 Mercer B+ C+ D- A C- 39% 37% 25% F D+ D- B C- A+ A+ A+ A+ F F F F F 33% 31% 35% A- F A+ F B+ B- F C+ F
1.22 59% 33% 43% +2 -2 1.02 27% 1.1 .30 9% .36 87% .31 1.26 94% 53% 41% +20 -2 1.40 22% 1.2 .26 18% .44 72% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.3 47.0 47.3 2nd
3rd 3.7 26.9 30.6 3rd
4th 0.0 10.4 3.7 14.2 4th
5th 0.5 7.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.4 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.9 21.4 77.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 77.7% 16.2% 16.2% 14.7 0.2 4.4 7.2 0.8 65.1
10-8 21.4% 10.4% 10.4% 15.4 0.0 1.2 1.0 19.2
9-9 0.9% 9.6% 9.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.9% 14.9% 0.0% 14.8 85.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.6% 100.0% 14.7 1.5 35.2 57.0 6.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 15.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 22.1%
Lose Out 0.2%