Wofford
Southern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.0#119
Expected Predictive Rating+5.2#109
Pace64.7#293
Improvement+0.4#146

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#103
First Shot+1.9#126
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#132
Layup/Dunks+0.5#145
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#91
Freethrows+2.1#60
Improvement+0.3#133

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#153
First Shot-0.7#198
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#105
Layups/Dunks+3.3#66
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#264
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#274
Freethrows-0.6#229
Improvement+0.0#175
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.1% 21.4% 15.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.0 13.6
.500 or above 86.5% 91.8% 81.6%
.500 or above in Conference 84.7% 87.5% 82.1%
Conference Champion 21.7% 25.5% 18.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.9% 1.5%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round17.8% 21.1% 14.9%
Second Round2.6% 3.3% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Richmond (Home) - 47.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 32 - 5
Quad 37 - 59 - 10
Quad 411 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 50   @ Clemson L 68-76 20%     0 - 1 +3.9 +0.6 +3.4
  Nov 19, 2021 338   Hampton W 77-60 95%     1 - 1 +1.4 -2.3 +3.8
  Nov 21, 2021 176   Georgia Southern W 70-52 74%     2 - 1 +14.2 +7.3 +9.5
  Nov 23, 2021 98   @ South Carolina L 74-85 31%     2 - 2 -3.0 +5.5 -8.2
  Nov 28, 2021 159   @ Georgia W 68-65 48%     3 - 2 +6.5 +0.2 +6.4
  Dec 01, 2021 83   Richmond L 72-73 48%    
  Dec 05, 2021 278   Kennesaw St. W 74-62 88%    
  Dec 08, 2021 190   @ Gardner-Webb W 68-67 55%    
  Dec 12, 2021 227   @ Coastal Carolina W 72-69 61%    
  Dec 18, 2021 293   @ Presbyterian W 67-60 76%    
  Dec 22, 2021 194   @ Duquesne W 70-69 55%    
  Dec 29, 2021 261   VMI W 74-63 85%    
  Jan 01, 2022 167   @ UNC Greensboro W 63-62 49%    
  Jan 05, 2022 100   Chattanooga W 65-64 54%    
  Jan 08, 2022 123   @ East Tennessee St. L 65-68 41%    
  Jan 12, 2022 239   Samford W 80-70 81%    
  Jan 15, 2022 302   @ Western Carolina W 77-69 75%    
  Jan 19, 2022 238   The Citadel W 79-69 82%    
  Jan 22, 2022 105   Furman W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 26, 2022 100   @ Chattanooga L 62-67 33%    
  Jan 29, 2022 167   UNC Greensboro W 66-60 71%    
  Jan 31, 2022 196   @ Mercer W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 05, 2022 123   East Tennessee St. W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 09, 2022 239   @ Samford W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 12, 2022 302   Western Carolina W 80-66 88%    
  Feb 16, 2022 238   @ The Citadel W 76-72 64%    
  Feb 19, 2022 105   @ Furman L 69-73 35%    
  Feb 23, 2022 261   @ VMI W 71-66 68%    
  Feb 26, 2022 196   Mercer W 73-65 74%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.0 6.3 6.0 3.8 1.4 0.4 21.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.8 5.7 7.3 3.9 1.3 0.1 20.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 6.5 5.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 17.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.6 4.9 1.5 0.2 13.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.3 3.8 0.9 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.2 0.7 3.1 2.4 0.6 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 1.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.2 0.2 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.9 3.9 6.4 8.6 11.9 14.2 13.6 12.7 10.6 7.2 3.9 1.4 0.4 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4
16-2 96.6% 3.8    3.4 0.3
15-3 82.4% 6.0    4.4 1.5 0.1
14-4 59.7% 6.3    3.2 2.6 0.5 0.0
13-5 23.4% 3.0    0.8 1.4 0.6 0.1
12-6 5.7% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.7% 21.7 13.8 6.1 1.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 82.7% 71.1% 11.7% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 40.4%
17-1 1.4% 53.2% 50.0% 3.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 6.5%
16-2 3.9% 38.2% 35.6% 2.6% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 2.4 4.0%
15-3 7.2% 35.5% 35.3% 0.3% 12.6 0.2 1.1 0.9 0.4 4.7 0.4%
14-4 10.6% 28.6% 28.6% 13.1 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.8 0.1 7.6
13-5 12.7% 24.7% 24.7% 13.5 0.4 1.2 1.1 0.4 9.6
12-6 13.6% 19.1% 19.1% 13.9 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.0 11.0
11-7 14.2% 14.1% 14.1% 14.1 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.0 12.2
10-8 11.9% 9.2% 9.2% 14.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 10.8
9-9 8.6% 5.8% 5.8% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 8.1
8-10 6.4% 4.4% 4.4% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.1
7-11 3.9% 4.6% 4.6% 15.6 0.1 0.1 3.7
6-12 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.1 2.8
5-13 1.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-14 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.1% 17.9% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 3.4 5.3 5.1 2.6 0.6 81.9 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.6 3.1 31.3 65.6