UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#160
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#188
Pace63.1#326
Improvement-1.6#285

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#199
First Shot-2.1#235
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#108
Layup/Dunks-3.2#283
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#162
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#116
Freethrows-1.0#244
Improvement-0.6#235

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#141
First Shot+0.3#166
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#133
Layups/Dunks+4.2#57
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#348
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#228
Freethrows+1.0#123
Improvement-1.0#269
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.6% 12.7% 9.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.8 14.4
.500 or above 65.3% 72.9% 48.7%
.500 or above in Conference 77.0% 80.1% 70.5%
Conference Champion 13.7% 15.4% 10.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.8% 1.5%
First Four0.5% 0.3% 0.8%
First Round11.5% 12.6% 9.1%
Second Round0.9% 1.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Away) - 68.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 66 - 11
Quad 411 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 188   Florida Gulf Coast W 73-64 66%     1 - 0 +4.7 +4.1 +1.3
  Nov 11, 2024 62   @ SMU L 68-81 13%     1 - 1 -0.8 -4.9 +4.7
  Nov 21, 2024 39   @ Indiana L 58-69 9%     1 - 2 +3.8 -6.2 +9.7
  Nov 25, 2024 304   Long Beach St. W 71-48 76%     2 - 2 +15.6 +2.2 +15.7
  Nov 26, 2024 194   San Jose St. L 64-69 56%     2 - 3 -6.4 -6.6 -0.2
  Nov 27, 2024 158   UTEP L 58-64 49%     2 - 4 -5.8 -3.0 -3.7
  Dec 03, 2024 141   High Point W 72-68 58%     3 - 4 +2.1 +6.5 -3.7
  Dec 07, 2024 311   @ N.C. A&T W 76-71 68%    
  Dec 14, 2024 182   @ North Florida L 73-75 43%    
  Dec 21, 2024 173   @ Elon L 66-68 42%    
  Jan 01, 2025 142   @ Wofford L 66-70 35%    
  Jan 04, 2025 119   Furman W 67-66 51%    
  Jan 09, 2025 200   @ Chattanooga L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 11, 2025 121   @ Samford L 75-80 31%    
  Jan 15, 2025 325   The Citadel W 70-58 86%    
  Jan 18, 2025 263   @ Western Carolina W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 22, 2025 232   Mercer W 74-67 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 346   @ VMI W 73-64 80%    
  Jan 29, 2025 135   East Tennessee St. W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 01, 2025 142   Wofford W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 05, 2025 325   @ The Citadel W 67-61 70%    
  Feb 08, 2025 263   Western Carolina W 74-65 78%    
  Feb 12, 2025 346   VMI W 76-61 91%    
  Feb 15, 2025 119   @ Furman L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 19, 2025 135   @ East Tennessee St. L 66-70 35%    
  Feb 22, 2025 232   @ Mercer W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 27, 2025 200   Chattanooga W 72-67 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 121   Samford W 78-77 52%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.3 3.6 1.8 0.6 0.1 13.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 4.5 5.6 2.6 0.5 0.0 14.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 5.3 6.1 1.9 0.2 14.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 5.7 6.1 1.7 0.1 15.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 5.1 5.5 1.6 0.1 13.7 5th
6th 0.2 1.4 4.3 4.5 1.3 0.1 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.4 2.9 0.8 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.9 6.5 9.1 11.9 13.9 14.3 12.9 10.2 7.2 4.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 97.8% 1.8    1.6 0.1
15-3 86.7% 3.6    2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-4 60.4% 4.3    2.2 1.8 0.4 0.0
13-5 26.0% 2.7    0.7 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.0% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.7% 13.7 7.9 4.3 1.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 46.9% 46.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.6% 36.0% 36.0% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
16-2 1.8% 34.0% 34.0% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.2
15-3 4.1% 31.0% 31.0% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.8
14-4 7.2% 25.2% 25.2% 13.4 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.4
13-5 10.2% 19.2% 19.2% 13.8 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 8.3
12-6 12.9% 13.9% 13.9% 14.1 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.0 11.1
11-7 14.3% 10.9% 10.9% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 12.7
10-8 13.9% 7.5% 7.5% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 12.9
9-9 11.9% 5.8% 5.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.3 11.2
8-10 9.1% 3.9% 3.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 8.8
7-11 6.5% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 6.3
6-12 3.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 3.8
5-13 2.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.0
4-14 0.9% 0.9
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 3.0 3.6 2.8 1.1 88.4 0.0%