UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#150
Expected Predictive Rating+3.8#115
Pace63.8#311
Improvement-2.1#282

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#130
First Shot+0.6#166
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#111
Layup/Dunks-5.9#345
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#127
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.9#11
Freethrows-2.1#309
Improvement-1.1#241

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#194
First Shot-0.6#190
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#196
Layups/Dunks+5.3#22
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#176
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#342
Freethrows-1.3#276
Improvement-1.0#242
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.3% 9.4% 6.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.5 13.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round9.3% 9.4% 6.2%
Second Round0.8% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Home) - 96.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 22 - 3
Quad 37 - 58 - 7
Quad 411 - 220 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 342   N.C. A&T W 94-78 93%     1 - 0 +0.7 +10.6 -10.4
  Nov 14, 2023 175   @ Vanderbilt L 70-74 46%     1 - 1 -1.9 +2.7 -4.9
  Nov 17, 2023 101   @ Arkansas W 78-72 25%     2 - 1 +14.0 +7.1 +6.8
  Nov 24, 2023 250   UMKC W 76-64 70%     3 - 1 +7.6 +9.7 -0.9
  Nov 25, 2023 165   Delaware W 88-77 54%     4 - 1 +10.8 +15.5 -4.6
  Nov 26, 2023 203   Illinois-Chicago W 58-57 63%     5 - 1 -1.6 -8.5 +7.0
  Dec 07, 2023 180   Eastern Kentucky W 87-85 OT 68%     6 - 1 -1.8 +7.3 -9.2
  Dec 10, 2023 312   Elon W 82-73 87%     7 - 1 -2.3 -2.5 -0.2
  Dec 16, 2023 226   @ Marshall L 65-72 56%     7 - 2 -7.6 -3.1 -4.8
  Dec 19, 2023 125   @ High Point L 63-74 33%     7 - 3 -5.6 -6.3 -0.2
  Dec 29, 2023 28   @ Texas L 37-72 10%     7 - 4 -20.0 -24.9 +0.6
  Jan 03, 2024 133   Furman W 79-68 56%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +10.3 +7.0 +3.6
  Jan 06, 2024 213   East Tennessee St. W 70-54 74%     9 - 4 2 - 0 +10.3 -5.8 +15.7
  Jan 11, 2024 81   @ Samford L 70-79 20%     9 - 5 2 - 1 +0.6 -0.2 +0.8
  Jan 13, 2024 146   @ Chattanooga W 70-54 38%     10 - 5 3 - 1 +20.0 +3.8 +17.8
  Jan 17, 2024 260   The Citadel W 73-67 79%     11 - 5 4 - 1 -1.8 +8.9 -9.7
  Jan 20, 2024 210   Wofford W 82-59 73%     12 - 5 5 - 1 +17.5 +18.7 +2.8
  Jan 24, 2024 136   @ Western Carolina W 85-82 OT 36%     13 - 5 6 - 1 +7.7 +11.9 -4.3
  Jan 27, 2024 228   Mercer L 64-70 75%     13 - 6 6 - 2 -12.1 -7.6 -4.8
  Jan 31, 2024 357   @ VMI W 85-79 90%     14 - 6 7 - 2 -6.8 +2.2 -9.5
  Feb 04, 2024 133   @ Furman W 89-87 35%     15 - 6 8 - 2 +6.8 +23.5 -16.6
  Feb 08, 2024 81   Samford L 69-78 38%     15 - 7 8 - 3 -4.9 -3.5 -1.4
  Feb 10, 2024 146   Chattanooga L 61-89 59%     15 - 8 8 - 4 -29.4 -4.9 -29.0
  Feb 14, 2024 260   @ The Citadel W 76-61 62%     16 - 8 9 - 4 +12.7 +10.1 +4.2
  Feb 17, 2024 210   @ Wofford W 58-47 54%     17 - 8 10 - 4 +10.9 -10.9 +23.0
  Feb 21, 2024 136   Western Carolina W 71-65 57%     18 - 8 11 - 4 +5.2 +6.5 -0.6
  Feb 24, 2024 228   @ Mercer L 72-86 56%     18 - 9 11 - 5 -14.6 +2.3 -17.5
  Feb 28, 2024 357   VMI W 84-65 97%    
  Mar 02, 2024 213   @ East Tennessee St. W 69-68 54%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 25.0 52.0 77.2 2nd
3rd 1.2 21.2 22.4 3rd
4th 0.5 0.5 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 1.8 46.2 52.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 52.0% 10.3% 10.3% 13.4 0.4 2.8 2.1 0.1 46.6
12-6 46.2% 8.3% 8.3% 13.6 0.1 1.5 2.1 0.2 0.0 42.4
11-7 1.8% 4.9% 4.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 13.5 0.4 4.3 4.2 0.4 0.0 90.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 52.0% 10.3% 13.4 0.7 5.3 4.1 0.2
Lose Out 1.8% 4.9% 14.0 0.9 3.1 0.9