UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#167
Expected Predictive Rating+2.8#137
Pace60.2#346
Improvement+1.0#86

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#224
First Shot-0.9#199
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#235
Layup/Dunks-2.7#266
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#84
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#188
Freethrows+1.0#114
Improvement+2.0#27

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#114
First Shot-0.2#174
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#69
Layups/Dunks+4.1#43
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#344
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#271
Freethrows+1.8#79
Improvement-0.9#269
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.3% 11.6% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 12.8 14.0
.500 or above 74.8% 92.4% 73.8%
.500 or above in Conference 64.3% 84.7% 63.1%
Conference Champion 6.7% 14.7% 6.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 1.6% 3.5%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round7.2% 11.6% 7.0%
Second Round0.6% 1.6% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 1.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee (Away) - 5.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 67 - 11
Quad 411 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 281   N.C. A&T W 57-53 81%     1 - 0 -5.4 -14.9 +9.7
  Nov 12, 2021 197   @ Northern Kentucky W 70-69 OT 44%     2 - 0 +2.4 -5.1 +7.5
  Nov 15, 2021 307   Coppin St. W 55-48 85%     3 - 0 -4.1 -21.0 +16.8
  Nov 18, 2021 301   Green Bay W 60-58 77%     4 - 0 -5.7 -2.1 -3.1
  Nov 19, 2021 116   Massachusetts L 90-93 OT 37%     4 - 1 +0.2 +8.7 -8.3
  Nov 21, 2021 226   Florida International L 71-74 OT 60%     4 - 2 -5.8 -1.4 -4.4
  Nov 27, 2021 104   Vermont W 54-51 45%     5 - 2 +4.3 -2.9 +7.9
  Nov 30, 2021 273   Elon W 74-61 80%     6 - 2 +3.8 -3.4 +7.5
  Dec 11, 2021 18   @ Tennessee L 55-73 5%    
  Dec 14, 2021 164   @ Towson L 61-64 38%    
  Dec 16, 2021 211   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 65-66 47%    
  Dec 29, 2021 302   @ Western Carolina W 70-65 67%    
  Jan 01, 2022 119   Wofford L 62-63 51%    
  Jan 05, 2022 105   Furman L 65-66 46%    
  Jan 08, 2022 261   @ VMI W 65-63 57%    
  Jan 13, 2022 238   @ The Citadel W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 15, 2022 196   @ Mercer L 63-65 45%    
  Jan 20, 2022 100   Chattanooga L 59-61 43%    
  Jan 22, 2022 239   Samford W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 26, 2022 123   @ East Tennessee St. L 59-65 29%    
  Jan 29, 2022 119   @ Wofford L 60-66 29%    
  Feb 02, 2022 261   VMI W 68-60 77%    
  Feb 05, 2022 105   @ Furman L 62-69 26%    
  Feb 10, 2022 238   The Citadel W 72-65 72%    
  Feb 13, 2022 196   Mercer W 66-62 64%    
  Feb 17, 2022 100   @ Chattanooga L 56-64 25%    
  Feb 19, 2022 239   @ Samford W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 23, 2022 302   Western Carolina W 73-62 84%    
  Feb 27, 2022 123   East Tennessee St. W 62-61 50%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 6.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.1 3.6 1.7 0.2 0.1 10.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 4.8 4.6 1.3 0.1 13.3 3rd
4th 0.3 2.2 6.4 5.1 1.2 0.0 15.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.6 6.6 5.0 1.3 0.1 15.9 5th
6th 0.4 2.1 6.2 4.1 0.8 0.0 13.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.7 2.9 0.4 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.6 3.0 1.8 0.3 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.6 0.7 0.1 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.5 3.9 6.9 8.9 12.3 13.6 14.6 12.5 10.4 6.6 3.9 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 91.3% 0.7    0.6 0.1
15-3 88.7% 1.4    1.1 0.3 0.1
14-4 54.8% 2.2    1.3 0.8 0.1
13-5 25.8% 1.7    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0
12-6 4.7% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.7% 6.7 3.8 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.2% 36.8% 28.2% 8.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.9%
16-2 0.8% 15.5% 15.5% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.6
15-3 1.6% 25.5% 25.5% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.2
14-4 3.9% 21.3% 21.3% 13.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.1
13-5 6.6% 16.8% 16.8% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 5.5
12-6 10.4% 12.1% 12.1% 13.8 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.2 9.1
11-7 12.5% 10.8% 10.8% 14.2 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 11.2
10-8 14.6% 6.9% 6.9% 14.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 13.6
9-9 13.6% 3.6% 3.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 13.1
8-10 12.3% 3.0% 3.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 11.9
7-11 8.9% 1.5% 1.5% 15.5 0.1 0.1 8.8
6-12 6.9% 1.2% 1.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 6.8
5-13 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.9
4-14 2.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.5
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.6 1.9 0.3 92.7 0.0%