UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#133
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#133
Pace64.8#277
Improvement+1.6#22

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#277
First Shot-2.8#273
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#231
Layup/Dunks-0.6#203
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#334
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#218
Freethrows+1.5#73
Improvement+0.4#112

Defense
Total Defense+5.5#41
First Shot+4.1#65
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#63
Layups/Dunks+3.2#59
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#248
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#153
Freethrows+0.9#115
Improvement+1.2#29
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.7% 21.0% 16.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 14.0
.500 or above 97.7% 99.5% 95.8%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 40.5% 59.4% 20.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round18.7% 21.0% 16.2%
Second Round1.9% 2.1% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Home) - 50.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 12 - 3
Quad 34 - 66 - 9
Quad 411 - 318 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 32   @ Miami (FL) L 65-79 12%     0 - 1 +0.7 -0.5 +0.5
  Nov 17, 2022 143   Towson L 53-56 62%     0 - 2 -4.1 -12.8 +8.3
  Nov 22, 2022 218   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 76-72 75%     1 - 2 -1.0 +3.2 -3.9
  Nov 25, 2022 128   Montana St. W 77-66 48%     2 - 2 +13.5 +5.8 +7.6
  Nov 26, 2022 113   Hofstra L 53-65 45%     2 - 3 -8.5 -18.0 +9.1
  Nov 27, 2022 142   Stephen F. Austin L 58-75 52%     2 - 4 -15.4 -13.1 -2.7
  Nov 30, 2022 255   @ N.C. A&T L 56-73 66%     2 - 5 -19.2 -18.1 -1.3
  Dec 03, 2022 342   @ Elon W 65-61 84%     3 - 5 -4.6 -9.8 +5.3
  Dec 06, 2022 22   @ Arkansas L 58-65 10%     3 - 6 +9.1 -7.9 +17.3
  Dec 13, 2022 85   Marshall W 75-67 45%     4 - 6 +11.4 +4.0 +7.5
  Dec 22, 2022 195   @ Eastern Kentucky L 64-68 53%     4 - 7 -2.7 -9.9 +7.3
  Dec 29, 2022 262   @ Western Carolina W 72-47 68%     5 - 7 1 - 0 +22.3 -0.7 +24.0
  Dec 31, 2022 200   @ Wofford W 73-64 54%     6 - 7 2 - 0 +10.0 -2.4 +12.4
  Jan 04, 2023 165   Chattanooga W 73-61 66%     7 - 7 3 - 0 +9.8 -2.1 +12.2
  Jan 07, 2023 141   Samford L 68-70 62%     7 - 8 3 - 1 -3.0 -1.6 -1.6
  Jan 11, 2023 329   @ VMI W 72-57 82%     8 - 8 4 - 1 +7.5 +1.2 +8.0
  Jan 14, 2023 99   @ Furman W 88-80 OT 30%     9 - 8 5 - 1 +15.5 +8.0 +6.7
  Jan 19, 2023 292   The Citadel W 70-60 86%     10 - 8 6 - 1 +0.3 -4.6 +5.3
  Jan 21, 2023 227   Mercer W 59-48 78%     11 - 8 7 - 1 +4.9 -7.4 +14.0
  Jan 25, 2023 329   VMI W 62-50 91%     12 - 8 8 - 1 -0.8 -15.4 +15.4
  Jan 29, 2023 99   Furman L 68-69 51%    
  Feb 02, 2023 227   @ Mercer W 63-60 59%    
  Feb 04, 2023 292   @ The Citadel W 68-61 72%    
  Feb 07, 2023 230   East Tennessee St. W 66-58 79%    
  Feb 12, 2023 200   Wofford W 68-62 73%    
  Feb 15, 2023 141   @ Samford L 65-67 41%    
  Feb 18, 2023 165   @ Chattanooga L 66-67 45%    
  Feb 22, 2023 262   Western Carolina W 71-61 83%    
  Feb 25, 2023 230   @ East Tennessee St. W 64-61 60%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.5 11.0 16.2 8.8 1.8 40.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.9 11.6 12.6 2.7 0.1 31.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 5.4 10.0 8.3 1.8 0.0 26.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 1.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 2.0 6.1 14.1 22.5 25.4 18.9 8.9 1.8 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.8    1.8
16-2 99.2% 8.8    8.1 0.7
15-3 85.4% 16.2    9.7 5.9 0.5
14-4 43.4% 11.0    3.7 5.5 1.9
13-5 11.3% 2.5    0.4 1.1 1.0
12-6 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 40.5% 40.5 23.7 13.3 3.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.8% 30.4% 30.4% 12.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.2
16-2 8.9% 28.0% 28.0% 13.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.6 0.0 6.4
15-3 18.9% 23.3% 23.3% 13.4 0.3 2.3 1.7 0.1 14.5
14-4 25.4% 20.2% 20.2% 13.7 0.1 1.9 2.8 0.4 20.3
13-5 22.5% 16.0% 16.0% 14.2 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.1 0.0 18.9
12-6 14.1% 12.4% 12.4% 14.7 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.0 12.4
11-7 6.1% 9.8% 9.8% 15.1 0.0 0.5 0.1 5.5
10-8 2.0% 7.2% 7.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.9
9-9 0.3% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
8-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.7% 18.7% 0.0% 13.7 0.1 1.2 6.3 7.7 3.2 0.3 81.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 30.4% 12.3 3.3 14.6 12.4 0.1