The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.6#354
Expected Predictive Rating-19.7#361
Pace63.6#322
Improvement+2.5#46

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#302
First Shot-4.5#305
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#206
Layup/Dunks-2.2#262
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#258
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#139
Freethrows-2.2#304
Improvement-0.9#259

Defense
Total Defense-8.7#362
First Shot-7.1#355
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#297
Layups/Dunks-5.2#333
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#135
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#269
Freethrows-0.3#207
Improvement+3.5#9
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.5% 4.2% 2.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 62.0% 50.1% 62.3%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Richmond (Away) - 2.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 30 - 81 - 12
Quad 44 - 134 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 151 @Boston College L 47-76 6%     0 - 1 -25.3 -18.2 -8.9
  Mon, Nov 10 238 Charleston Southern L 86-96 28%     0 - 2 -17.7 +7.5 -24.8
  Fri, Nov 14 312 @West Georgia L 92-100 23%     0 - 3 -13.8 +9.2 -22.4
  Mon, Nov 24 274 Bellarmine L 58-70 33%     0 - 4 -21.1 -12.8 -10.3
  Wed, Nov 26 279 Houston Christian L 65-72 34%     0 - 5 -16.3 -2.2 -15.4
  Sun, Nov 30 280 Presbyterian L 41-69 24%     0 - 6 -34.3 -20.9 -21.5
  Thu, Dec 4 134 @Davidson L 63-79 6%     0 - 7 -11.4 -1.2 -11.8
  Sat, Dec 13 86 @South Carolina L 55-71 3%     0 - 8 -6.7 -9.3 +1.7
  Wed, Dec 17 184 @College of Charleston L 78-82 9%     0 - 9 -2.7 +3.1 -5.6
  Sat, Dec 20 105 @Richmond L 63-84 2%    
  Wed, Dec 31 123 East Tennessee St. L 65-78 11%    
  Sat, Jan 3 223 Wofford L 69-76 26%    
  Wed, Jan 7 173 @Mercer L 67-83 7%    
  Sat, Jan 10 301 Western Carolina L 73-76 38%    
  Thu, Jan 15 293 @UNC Greensboro L 68-78 19%    
  Sat, Jan 17 333 @VMI L 70-76 29%    
  Wed, Jan 21 152 Furman L 66-77 15%    
  Sat, Jan 24 123 @East Tennessee St. L 62-81 4%    
  Thu, Jan 29 333 VMI L 72-73 50%    
  Sat, Jan 31 293 UNC Greensboro L 71-75 38%    
  Thu, Feb 5 233 @Samford L 67-80 13%    
  Sat, Feb 7 246 @Chattanooga L 66-78 15%    
  Wed, Feb 11 301 @Western Carolina L 70-79 20%    
  Sat, Feb 14 173 Mercer L 70-80 19%    
  Thu, Feb 19 233 Samford L 70-77 28%    
  Sat, Feb 21 246 Chattanooga L 69-75 31%    
  Wed, Feb 25 152 @Furman L 63-80 6%    
  Sat, Feb 28 223 @Wofford L 66-79 12%    
Projected Record 4 - 24 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.5 2.4 0.8 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.0 4.4 1.2 0.1 12.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 6.0 9.1 6.4 1.7 0.1 0.0 25.2 9th
10th 3.7 10.0 14.2 12.9 6.4 1.5 0.1 48.7 10th
Total 3.7 10.1 15.9 19.2 17.5 13.6 9.1 5.4 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 6.5% 0.0    0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
10-8 0.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
9-9 1.5% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 1.4
8-10 3.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.2
7-11 5.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.4
6-12 9.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.1
5-13 13.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.5
4-14 17.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.5
3-15 19.2% 19.2
2-16 15.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.9
1-17 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.1
0-18 3.7% 3.7
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.2%