The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.0#260
Expected Predictive Rating-6.8#287
Pace63.7#314
Improvement-2.0#281

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#245
First Shot-2.5#254
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#179
Layup/Dunks-4.6#332
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#77
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#166
Freethrows-0.2#193
Improvement-1.2#252

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#246
First Shot-2.7#267
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#168
Layups/Dunks-1.2#226
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#340
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#203
Freethrows+2.2#44
Improvement-0.9#233
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.4% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four1.2% 1.4% 1.0%
First Round0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Home) - 53.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 31 - 82 - 13
Quad 47 - 69 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 68   @ North Carolina St. L 59-72 8%     0 - 1 -2.1 -6.9 +4.3
  Nov 10, 2023 92   Boston College L 71-75 21%     0 - 2 -0.5 +3.3 -4.2
  Nov 13, 2023 278   @ Presbyterian L 64-71 43%     0 - 3 -10.3 -12.3 +2.1
  Nov 20, 2023 254   Idaho St. W 62-61 48%     1 - 3 -3.5 -3.7 +0.3
  Nov 21, 2023 258   NC Central W 67-61 49%     2 - 3 +1.1 +1.5 +0.4
  Nov 22, 2023 300   @ Campbell L 58-65 49%     2 - 4 -11.8 -2.1 -11.6
  Nov 28, 2023 319   Charleston Southern W 81-52 75%     3 - 4 +16.8 +3.7 +13.2
  Dec 02, 2023 342   @ N.C. A&T W 85-68 68%     4 - 4 +7.2 +10.6 -2.8
  Dec 14, 2023 109   @ College of Charleston L 71-86 13%     4 - 5 -7.8 -0.4 -7.4
  Dec 19, 2023 124   @ Notre Dame W 65-45 16%     5 - 5 +25.7 +2.0 +24.5
  Jan 03, 2024 136   Western Carolina L 71-80 34%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -9.8 +4.9 -15.6
  Jan 06, 2024 81   Samford L 64-80 19%     5 - 7 0 - 2 -11.9 -6.1 -6.4
  Jan 10, 2024 133   @ Furman L 68-82 18%     5 - 8 0 - 3 -9.2 -2.7 -6.7
  Jan 13, 2024 210   Wofford L 71-72 52%     5 - 9 0 - 4 -6.5 +1.6 -8.2
  Jan 17, 2024 150   @ UNC Greensboro L 67-73 21%     5 - 10 0 - 5 -2.3 +6.4 -9.8
  Jan 20, 2024 357   @ VMI L 63-70 77%     5 - 11 0 - 6 -19.8 -14.6 -5.0
  Jan 24, 2024 228   Mercer W 68-66 54%     6 - 11 1 - 6 -4.1 -2.2 -1.8
  Jan 27, 2024 146   @ Chattanooga L 62-90 20%     6 - 12 1 - 7 -24.0 -7.0 -18.7
  Jan 31, 2024 133   Furman L 79-82 OT 34%     6 - 13 1 - 8 -3.7 -1.1 -2.4
  Feb 03, 2024 213   @ East Tennessee St. L 60-62 32%     6 - 14 1 - 9 -2.3 -10.2 +7.9
  Feb 07, 2024 136   @ Western Carolina L 64-71 18%     6 - 15 1 - 10 -2.3 -1.5 -1.3
  Feb 10, 2024 210   @ Wofford L 64-77 32%     6 - 16 1 - 11 -13.1 -6.3 -7.7
  Feb 14, 2024 150   UNC Greensboro L 61-76 38%     6 - 17 1 - 12 -16.8 -7.4 -11.0
  Feb 17, 2024 357   VMI W 76-51 89%     7 - 17 2 - 12 +6.7 -3.9 +10.1
  Feb 21, 2024 228   @ Mercer L 78-87 34%     7 - 18 2 - 13 -9.6 +11.3 -21.6
  Feb 24, 2024 146   Chattanooga W 71-62 36%     8 - 18 3 - 13 +7.6 -0.8 +8.9
  Feb 28, 2024 213   East Tennessee St. W 68-67 54%    
  Mar 02, 2024 81   @ Samford L 69-84 8%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 4 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 42.9 52.4 4.6 100.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 42.9 52.4 4.6 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13 4.6% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 4.5
4-14 52.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.7 51.7
3-15 42.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.4 42.5
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 16.0 1.2 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.6% 2.2% 16.0 2.2
Lose Out 42.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.9