The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-15.2#362
Expected Predictive Rating-21.5#362
Pace62.8#338
Improvement-1.2#270

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#311
First Shot-3.6#274
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#272
Layup/Dunks-2.1#259
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#302
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#97
Freethrows-1.9#289
Improvement-2.6#352

Defense
Total Defense-10.1#365
First Shot-7.0#356
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#331
Layups/Dunks-4.0#305
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#200
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#313
Freethrows+1.1#118
Improvement+1.4#64
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.6% 4.4% 1.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 69.5% 54.5% 70.0%
First Four0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Davidson (Away) - 3.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 30 - 91 - 12
Quad 43 - 144 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 133 @Boston College L 47-76 4%     0 - 1 -24.1 -17.5 -8.4
  Mon, Nov 10 289 Charleston Southern L 86-96 31%     0 - 2 -20.1 +6.5 -26.3
  Fri, Nov 14 284 @West Georgia L 92-100 14%     0 - 3 -11.8 +10.7 -21.8
  Mon, Nov 24 295 Bellarmine L 58-70 32%     0 - 4 -22.4 -14.1 -10.3
  Wed, Nov 26 283 Houston Christian L 65-72 30%     0 - 5 -16.8 -1.2 -16.9
  Sun, Nov 30 259 Presbyterian L 41-69 18%     0 - 6 -33.4 -21.0 -20.5
  Thu, Dec 4 131 @Davidson L 60-80 3%    
  Sat, Dec 13 91 @South Carolina L 59-83 1%    
  Wed, Dec 17 177 @College of Charleston L 64-81 6%    
  Sat, Dec 20 116 @Richmond L 62-83 2%    
  Wed, Dec 31 137 East Tennessee St. L 64-78 10%    
  Sat, Jan 3 213 Wofford L 70-79 20%    
  Wed, Jan 7 190 @Mercer L 69-85 7%    
  Sat, Jan 10 276 Western Carolina L 71-77 30%    
  Thu, Jan 15 294 @UNC Greensboro L 67-78 16%    
  Sat, Jan 17 338 @VMI L 69-76 26%    
  Wed, Jan 21 165 Furman L 65-76 16%    
  Sat, Jan 24 137 @East Tennessee St. L 61-81 4%    
  Thu, Jan 29 338 VMI L 72-73 46%    
  Sat, Jan 31 294 UNC Greensboro L 70-75 33%    
  Thu, Feb 5 224 @Samford L 66-80 10%    
  Sat, Feb 7 206 @Chattanooga L 64-79 9%    
  Wed, Feb 11 276 @Western Carolina L 68-80 15%    
  Sat, Feb 14 190 Mercer L 72-82 19%    
  Thu, Feb 19 224 Samford L 69-77 23%    
  Sat, Feb 21 206 Chattanooga L 67-76 20%    
  Wed, Feb 25 165 @Furman L 62-79 7%    
  Sat, Feb 28 213 @Wofford L 67-82 9%    
Projected Record 3 - 25 3 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.8 0.5 0.1 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.7 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.9 8th
9th 0.2 2.3 6.8 8.4 5.3 1.4 0.1 24.4 9th
10th 6.8 15.0 17.0 12.1 5.2 1.1 0.1 57.3 10th
Total 6.8 15.2 19.2 19.2 15.3 10.6 6.4 3.7 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 14.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 11.3% 11.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
10-8 0.4% 0.4
9-9 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9
8-10 1.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.9
7-11 3.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.7
6-12 6.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.4
5-13 10.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.6
4-14 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.3
3-15 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 19.2
2-16 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 19.2
1-17 15.2% 15.2
0-18 6.8% 6.8
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.9%