The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.7 #346
Expected Predictive Rating -11.7 #338
Pace 62.5 #334
Improvement +6.4 #11

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #319 D+ D D+ D+ C
Defense #340 D- C- D C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #308 1.03 #318 -4.9 #334
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #215 0.69 #300 -1.5 #257
Three Pointers 48% #45 0.98 #236 +2.6 #91
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #293 -3.7 #292
Freethrows 0.29 #251 68% #311 0.20 #280
Second Chance 27.5% #271 0.89 #336 0.24 #323
Turnovers 18.7% #292
Total Offense -5.6 #319

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #133 1.33 #351 -4.6 #329
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #349 0.80 #265 +2.1 #38
Three Pointers 46% #55 1.09 #283 -3.9 #330
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #349 -6.5 #349
Freethrows 0.29 #144 71% #94 0.21 #122
Second Chance 32.1% #244 1.02 #179 0.33 #221
Turnovers 14.1% #330
Total Defense -6.1 #340

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #203 1.9% #339
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.2% #304 10.5% #344
Possession Length 19.6 #356 16.7 #99
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #350 0.20 #265
Improvement -0.8 #228 +7.2 #2

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 8.4% 24.9% 5.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.0% 0.8%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Samford (Away) - 14.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 31 - 71 - 11
Quad 47 - 117 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 127 @Boston College L 47 - 76 7% -11  0 - 1 -24 -16 F D- D -9 C D+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 246 Charleston Southern L 86 - 96 35% -0  0 - 2 -18 +8 A+ F C+ -26 F F F
 Fri, Nov 14 324 @West Georgia L 92 - 100 33% -8  0 - 3 -15 +8 C+ F+ A -22 F F F
 Mon, Nov 24 303 Bellarmine L 58 - 70 48% -5  0 - 4 -23 -17 F C F+ -9 D C F
 Wed, Nov 26 304 Houston Christian L 65 - 72 48% -6  0 - 5 -18 -3 F C+ B -17 F F C-
 Sun, Nov 30 263 Presbyterian L 41 - 69 28% -19  0 - 6 -34 -22 F D- F -19 F F D-
 Thu, Dec 4 115 @Davidson L 63 - 79 6% -9  0 - 7 -10 +0 B D D- -12 C D+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 91 @South Carolina L 55 - 71 4% -5  0 - 8 -7 -10 F F+ B- +3 A- C- C-
 Wed, Dec 17 152 @College of Charleston L 78 - 82 9% +2  0 - 9 -1 +5 B- D+ D- -5 F A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 136 @Richmond L 56 - 80 7% -11  0 - 10 -19 -11 C- F+ F -10 F B+ D-
 Tue, Dec 30 132 East Tennessee St. L 49 - 74 16% -13  0 - 11 0 - 1 -26 -20 F C+ F -9 D D C+
 Sat, Jan 3 201 Wofford L 86 - 95 28% -8  0 - 12 0 - 2 -15 +13 A- A+ F+ -28 F B+ C
 Wed, Jan 7 149 @Mercer L 63 - 101 8% -21  0 - 13 0 - 3 -34 -6 C- B F -31 F F C
 Sat, Jan 10 277 Western Carolina W 79 - 77 OT 41% -2  1 - 13 1 - 3 -7 -1 F+ A- C -7 C B+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 312 @UNC Greensboro L 66 - 69 OT 29% +4  1 - 14 1 - 4 -9 -11 F+ F F+ +2 C- B D
 Sat, Jan 17 356 @VMI W 82 - 68 49% +10  2 - 14 2 - 4 +3 +5 B F D -2 F+ B+ C-
 Wed, Jan 21 164 Furman W 77 - 75 OT 21% -6  3 - 14 3 - 4 -1 +3 D B- C+ -4 C A F
 Fri, Jan 23 132 @East Tennessee St. L 55 - 84 7% -18  3 - 15 3 - 5 -24 -11 F+ F A- -16 F F D-
 Thu, Jan 29 356 VMI W 80 - 56 71% +12  4 - 15 4 - 5 +7 +6 A+ F B +3 C A C
 Sat, Jan 31 312 UNC Greensboro W 71 - 66 OT 51% +2  5 - 15 5 - 5 -7 -8 D+ F A +1 C+ D+ B-
 Thu, Feb 5 227 @Samford L 67 - 78 15%
 Sat, Feb 7 276 @Chattanooga L 66 - 74 22%
 Wed, Feb 11 277 @Western Carolina L 71 - 79 22%
 Sat, Feb 14 149 Mercer L 71 - 80 19%
 Thu, Feb 19 227 Samford L 70 - 75 32%
 Sat, Feb 21 276 Chattanooga L 69 - 71 42%
 Wed, Feb 25 164 @Furman L 62 - 76 9%
 Sat, Feb 28 201 @Wofford L 67 - 79 13%
Totals 7 - 21 7 - 11 -12 -6 D+ D D+ -6 D- C- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.1 1.3 4th
5th 0.3 4.6 4.3 0.8 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 5.5 8.5 1.6 0.0 15.7 6th
7th 0.0 3.6 14.7 3.4 0.1 21.8 7th
8th 2.8 17.0 7.2 0.3 27.2 8th
9th 13.1 9.8 0.6 23.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
Total 16.0 30.5 28.2 16.8 6.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.3% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
10-8 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.7
9-9 6.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 6.3
8-10 16.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 16.7
7-11 28.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 28.2
6-12 30.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 30.5
5-13 16.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 10.8%