The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#238
Expected Predictive Rating-0.9#190
Pace73.7#79
Improvement-1.3#274

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#152
First Shot+0.6#163
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#176
Layup/Dunks-2.0#240
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#271
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#33
Freethrows-1.5#277
Improvement-0.6#247

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#310
First Shot-0.4#184
After Offensive Rebounds-4.2#346
Layups/Dunks+3.7#59
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#276
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#124
Freethrows-4.1#344
Improvement-0.7#252
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.4% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.8 15.1
.500 or above 36.5% 50.4% 23.7%
.500 or above in Conference 29.6% 36.5% 23.2%
Conference Champion 1.7% 2.2% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 16.6% 13.0% 20.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round2.0% 2.3% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Away) - 47.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 33 - 64 - 11
Quad 49 - 413 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 200   @ Pittsburgh W 78-63 31%     1 - 0 +16.2 +9.6 +7.1
  Nov 15, 2021 293   @ Presbyterian L 70-74 2OT 51%     1 - 1 -8.3 -10.9 +3.1
  Nov 22, 2021 5   @ Duke L 81-107 2%     1 - 2 -5.4 +15.7 -20.4
  Nov 28, 2021 354   @ South Carolina St. W 91-79 OT 84%     2 - 2 -2.5 -3.6 -0.9
  Dec 01, 2021 270   @ UNC Asheville L 75-76 48%    
  Dec 06, 2021 337   NC Central W 81-69 86%    
  Dec 20, 2021 354   South Carolina St. W 88-71 93%    
  Dec 21, 2021 253   Manhattan W 74-70 64%    
  Dec 29, 2021 196   Mercer W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 01, 2022 239   @ Samford L 81-84 39%    
  Jan 05, 2022 302   @ Western Carolina W 80-79 53%    
  Jan 08, 2022 100   @ Chattanooga L 64-76 15%    
  Jan 13, 2022 167   UNC Greensboro L 68-69 47%    
  Jan 15, 2022 261   VMI W 77-72 65%    
  Jan 19, 2022 119   @ Wofford L 69-79 18%    
  Jan 22, 2022 123   @ East Tennessee St. L 67-77 18%    
  Jan 26, 2022 302   Western Carolina W 83-76 72%    
  Jan 29, 2022 100   Chattanooga L 67-73 31%    
  Feb 02, 2022 105   @ Furman L 72-83 17%    
  Feb 05, 2022 239   Samford W 84-81 61%    
  Feb 10, 2022 167   @ UNC Greensboro L 65-72 28%    
  Feb 12, 2022 261   @ VMI L 74-75 45%    
  Feb 16, 2022 119   Wofford L 72-76 36%    
  Feb 19, 2022 123   East Tennessee St. L 70-74 38%    
  Feb 23, 2022 196   @ Mercer L 72-77 32%    
  Feb 26, 2022 105   Furman L 75-80 33%    
Projected Record 12 - 14 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 3.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 5.1 3rd
4th 0.3 1.8 3.4 2.0 0.2 7.7 4th
5th 0.3 2.2 4.9 2.9 0.3 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.2 6.0 3.1 0.5 13.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 4.7 7.3 3.2 0.4 0.0 16.9 7th
8th 0.2 1.7 4.9 6.1 2.6 0.3 15.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.9 5.5 1.8 0.3 15.3 9th
10th 0.3 1.2 2.7 3.4 2.0 0.8 0.1 10.4 10th
Total 0.3 1.2 3.0 6.1 8.6 12.3 13.3 13.6 11.9 10.4 8.0 5.5 2.8 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 72.7% 0.3    0.2 0.1
14-4 59.6% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 31.8% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 0.1
16-2 0.1% 0.1
15-3 0.4% 17.7% 17.7% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 0.8% 14.6% 14.6% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-5 1.6% 12.1% 12.1% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.4
12-6 2.8% 4.1% 4.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
11-7 5.5% 6.1% 6.1% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.2
10-8 8.0% 4.9% 4.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 7.6
9-9 10.4% 3.1% 3.1% 15.5 0.2 0.1 10.0
8-10 11.9% 2.3% 2.3% 15.5 0.1 0.2 11.7
7-11 13.6% 1.3% 1.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 13.5
6-12 13.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.3
5-13 12.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.3
4-14 8.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.6
3-15 6.1% 6.1
2-16 3.0% 3.0
1-17 1.2% 1.2
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.6 97.9 0.0%