The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.5#296
Expected Predictive Rating-5.6#273
Pace70.6#110
Improvement-0.2#214

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#294
First Shot+0.1#176
After Offensive Rebound-4.0#362
Layup/Dunks+1.2#120
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#297
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#209
Freethrows+1.4#79
Improvement-0.1#211

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#288
First Shot-2.1#240
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#316
Layups/Dunks-0.1#185
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#164
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#215
Freethrows-1.8#304
Improvement-0.1#200
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.8% 1.2% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 5.3% 5.9% 4.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.6% 1.7%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Home) - 65.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 32 - 72 - 13
Quad 49 - 611 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 55   @ Clemson L 69-80 4%     0 - 1 +1.1 +3.5 -2.5
  Nov 10, 2022 328   Presbyterian W 70-58 69%     1 - 1 -0.6 -2.0 +2.6
  Nov 19, 2022 87   @ Butler L 42-89 8%     1 - 2 -38.5 -24.0 -15.9
  Nov 23, 2022 347   @ New Orleans W 72-65 58%     2 - 2 -2.5 -12.6 +9.5
  Nov 24, 2022 319   Denver L 71-74 55%     2 - 3 -11.7 -5.9 -5.9
  Nov 25, 2022 358   IUPUI W 74-53 78%     3 - 3 +5.2 -2.3 +8.9
  Nov 30, 2022 278   @ Charleston Southern W 76-73 34%     4 - 3 -0.3 -1.2 +1.0
  Dec 03, 2022 79   College of Charleston L 57-79 14%     4 - 4 -18.0 -15.4 -2.2
  Dec 13, 2022 25   @ North Carolina L 67-100 3%     4 - 5 -17.1 -5.3 -8.8
  Dec 17, 2022 181   Longwood L 70-75 33%     4 - 6 -8.0 +3.3 -11.8
  Dec 20, 2022 255   @ NC Central L 74-81 30%     4 - 7 -9.1 -3.8 -4.8
  Dec 29, 2022 157   Chattanooga W 76-68 30%     5 - 7 1 - 0 +5.9 +3.6 +2.8
  Dec 31, 2022 145   Samford L 63-75 28%     5 - 8 1 - 1 -13.5 -12.8 -1.0
  Jan 04, 2023 93   @ Furman L 72-97 8%     5 - 9 1 - 2 -16.9 -3.4 -12.4
  Jan 07, 2023 195   @ Wofford L 57-77 20%     5 - 10 1 - 3 -18.6 -19.7 +1.7
  Jan 11, 2023 234   East Tennessee St. L 74-96 46%     5 - 11 1 - 4 -28.5 -4.8 -22.4
  Jan 14, 2023 260   Western Carolina W 65-61 51%     6 - 11 2 - 4 -3.8 -7.5 +4.0
  Jan 19, 2023 139   @ UNC Greensboro L 60-70 13%     6 - 12 2 - 5 -5.6 -3.7 -2.3
  Jan 21, 2023 335   @ VMI W 60-52 51%     7 - 12 3 - 5 +0.2 -11.6 +12.8
  Jan 25, 2023 260   @ Western Carolina W 81-70 31%     8 - 12 4 - 5 +8.5 +8.5 +0.4
  Jan 28, 2023 227   Mercer L 65-74 43%     8 - 13 4 - 6 -14.8 -4.7 -10.9
  Jan 30, 2023 317   Chicago St. W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 02, 2023 335   VMI W 76-70 71%    
  Feb 04, 2023 139   UNC Greensboro L 61-68 28%    
  Feb 08, 2023 157   @ Chattanooga L 68-79 15%    
  Feb 11, 2023 145   @ Samford L 68-79 14%    
  Feb 15, 2023 93   Furman L 71-81 18%    
  Feb 18, 2023 195   Wofford L 70-74 38%    
  Feb 22, 2023 234   @ East Tennessee St. L 66-72 27%    
  Feb 25, 2023 227   @ Mercer L 65-72 25%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.7 0.0 2.5 4th
5th 0.3 3.4 2.1 0.1 5.9 5th
6th 0.1 3.3 5.8 0.7 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 2.3 10.3 2.7 0.0 15.2 7th
8th 1.5 12.5 8.7 0.4 23.2 8th
9th 5.2 19.5 16.1 1.9 0.0 42.7 9th
10th 0.3 0.1 0.4 10th
Total 5.5 21.1 31.0 24.5 12.6 4.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9
9-9 4.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.2
8-10 12.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 12.6
7-11 24.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 24.4
6-12 31.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 30.9
5-13 21.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 21.1
4-14 5.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.5
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.3 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.3%