Mercer
Southern
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.4#227
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#238
Pace63.8#298
Improvement-0.9#296

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#235
First Shot-3.8#300
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#60
Layup/Dunks-2.3#270
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#19
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#330
Freethrows-0.5#218
Improvement-1.9#359

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#226
First Shot-0.7#203
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#254
Layups/Dunks-0.7#218
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#205
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#94
Freethrows-2.1#318
Improvement+1.0#36
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 2.5% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 6.7% 11.5% 1.6%
.500 or above in Conference 21.0% 32.1% 9.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.5% 2.7%
First Four1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
First Round1.5% 1.8% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: The Citadel (Away) - 51.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 32 - 103 - 12
Quad 410 - 412 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2022 192   @ East Carolina L 75-77 32%     0 - 1 -0.6 +6.4 -7.0
  Nov 15, 2022 220   @ Georgia St. L 83-85 OT 37%     0 - 2 -2.1 +3.4 -5.3
  Nov 19, 2022 260   Winthrop W 77-68 66%     1 - 2 +1.2 +3.0 -1.0
  Nov 21, 2022 134   @ Florida St. L 72-81 22%     1 - 3 -4.3 +2.3 -6.8
  Nov 25, 2022 241   Robert Morris W 72-66 53%     2 - 3 +1.7 -5.1 +6.5
  Nov 26, 2022 226   Fairfield W 60-58 50%     3 - 3 -1.4 -6.0 +4.8
  Nov 27, 2022 143   Towson L 60-70 32%     3 - 4 -8.5 -5.5 -4.1
  Dec 02, 2022 158   Kennesaw St. L 63-66 45%     3 - 5 -5.1 -6.4 +1.0
  Dec 10, 2022 169   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 62-67 27%     3 - 6 -2.1 -7.5 +5.2
  Dec 17, 2022 282   Morehead St. W 79-52 71%     4 - 6 +17.9 +13.2 +9.1
  Dec 21, 2022 139   @ Troy W 82-79 23%     5 - 6 +7.3 +16.2 -8.8
  Dec 28, 2022 141   @ Samford L 69-78 23%     5 - 7 0 - 1 -4.7 +6.1 -12.3
  Dec 31, 2022 165   Chattanooga L 51-80 45%     5 - 8 0 - 2 -31.2 -24.1 -8.7
  Jan 04, 2023 200   Wofford L 52-53 53%     5 - 9 0 - 3 -5.2 -14.6 +9.1
  Jan 07, 2023 262   @ Western Carolina L 45-73 47%     5 - 10 0 - 4 -30.7 -28.9 -2.8
  Jan 11, 2023 99   Furman L 66-84 29%     5 - 11 0 - 5 -15.8 -3.2 -14.2
  Jan 14, 2023 230   @ East Tennessee St. W 68-55 40%     6 - 11 1 - 5 +12.1 +4.4 +9.3
  Jan 19, 2023 329   @ VMI W 69-61 66%     7 - 11 2 - 5 +0.5 -4.8 +5.8
  Jan 21, 2023 133   @ UNC Greensboro L 48-59 22%     7 - 12 2 - 6 -6.2 -10.6 +2.6
  Jan 25, 2023 230   East Tennessee St. W 71-67 OT 60%     8 - 12 3 - 6 -2.1 -9.2 +6.7
  Jan 28, 2023 292   @ The Citadel W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 02, 2023 133   UNC Greensboro L 60-63 41%    
  Feb 04, 2023 329   VMI W 74-65 82%    
  Feb 08, 2023 141   Samford L 68-70 42%    
  Feb 11, 2023 165   @ Chattanooga L 67-73 26%    
  Feb 15, 2023 200   @ Wofford L 66-70 33%    
  Feb 18, 2023 262   Western Carolina W 71-67 67%    
  Feb 22, 2023 99   @ Furman L 66-77 15%    
  Feb 25, 2023 292   The Citadel W 71-65 73%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 6.4 4.1 1.0 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 8.6 6.5 0.8 0.0 16.7 5th
6th 0.3 6.8 10.0 1.4 0.0 18.4 6th
7th 0.0 3.2 11.3 2.9 0.0 17.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 9.3 6.2 0.2 17.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 7.1 6.3 0.6 16.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.2 2.1 8.5 19.0 25.7 23.3 14.3 5.2 1.4 0.2 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 3.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.2% 3.8% 3.8% 14.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 1.4% 8.3% 8.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
10-8 5.2% 4.9% 4.9% 15.7 0.1 0.2 4.9
9-9 14.3% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5 13.8
8-10 23.3% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6 22.8
7-11 25.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.5 25.2
6-12 19.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 18.8
5-13 8.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 8.5
4-14 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.1
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.0 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 3.8% 14.0 3.8
Lose Out 0.2%