Mercer
Southern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#196
Expected Predictive Rating-5.9#254
Pace67.4#227
Improvement-1.4#279

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#174
First Shot+0.1#177
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#192
Layup/Dunks-3.0#280
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#71
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#74
Freethrows-2.5#314
Improvement-1.0#277

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#224
First Shot-3.7#285
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#56
Layups/Dunks-5.9#335
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#118
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#194
Freethrows+1.3#112
Improvement-0.4#222
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 6.6% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.9
.500 or above 33.3% 43.1% 19.9%
.500 or above in Conference 50.3% 56.2% 42.2%
Conference Champion 4.7% 6.1% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 7.4% 5.3% 10.3%
First Four0.8% 0.6% 1.0%
First Round5.4% 6.3% 4.1%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Away) - 57.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 75 - 13
Quad 49 - 414 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 24   @ Arkansas L 61-74 6%     0 - 1 +3.5 -2.6 +5.9
  Nov 13, 2021 146   @ Winthrop L 85-88 OT 28%     0 - 2 +1.5 +2.8 -1.0
  Nov 20, 2021 56   @ Saint Louis L 58-75 12%     0 - 3 -5.8 -6.6 -0.3
  Nov 23, 2021 291   Bucknell W 78-68 70%     1 - 3 +3.0 -1.4 +4.0
  Nov 24, 2021 183   Middle Tennessee L 58-82 48%     1 - 4 -25.0 -15.2 -9.0
  Dec 01, 2021 278   @ Kennesaw St. W 70-68 58%    
  Dec 04, 2021 141   Georgia St. L 74-75 48%    
  Dec 06, 2021 227   @ Coastal Carolina L 71-73 44%    
  Dec 11, 2021 176   Georgia Southern W 68-66 60%    
  Dec 19, 2021 192   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 73-76 38%    
  Dec 22, 2021 240   Troy W 71-65 70%    
  Dec 29, 2021 238   @ The Citadel L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 01, 2022 100   Chattanooga L 64-67 39%    
  Jan 05, 2022 239   Samford W 79-74 69%    
  Jan 08, 2022 105   @ Furman L 68-77 21%    
  Jan 13, 2022 261   VMI W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 15, 2022 167   UNC Greensboro W 65-63 55%    
  Jan 19, 2022 123   @ East Tennessee St. L 64-71 25%    
  Jan 22, 2022 302   Western Carolina W 79-70 80%    
  Jan 26, 2022 239   @ Samford L 76-77 49%    
  Jan 29, 2022 105   Furman L 71-74 40%    
  Jan 31, 2022 119   Wofford L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 05, 2022 100   @ Chattanooga L 61-70 21%    
  Feb 10, 2022 261   @ VMI W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 13, 2022 167   @ UNC Greensboro L 62-66 36%    
  Feb 16, 2022 123   East Tennessee St. L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 19, 2022 302   @ Western Carolina W 76-73 61%    
  Feb 23, 2022 238   The Citadel W 77-72 68%    
  Feb 26, 2022 119   @ Wofford L 65-73 26%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 2.9 2.4 1.0 0.2 7.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 3.9 3.1 0.8 9.8 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 5.6 3.6 0.8 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.8 4.2 0.8 0.0 14.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.0 7.0 4.0 0.8 0.0 15.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.4 5.6 3.9 0.6 0.0 14.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.7 4.1 2.2 0.3 9.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 2.4 2.9 1.3 0.2 7.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.1 4.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.4 4.4 6.7 9.4 11.3 14.2 12.6 12.5 9.3 7.2 4.5 2.4 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.0
15-3 84.6% 1.1    0.9 0.2 0.0
14-4 56.9% 1.3    0.9 0.4 0.1
13-5 27.8% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0
12-6 4.8% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.7% 4.7 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 52.4% 28.6% 23.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.3%
16-2 0.6% 39.1% 39.1% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3
15-3 1.2% 17.5% 17.5% 13.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
14-4 2.4% 23.0% 23.0% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.8
13-5 4.5% 20.6% 20.6% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.6
12-6 7.2% 13.1% 13.1% 14.5 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.0 6.3
11-7 9.3% 8.9% 8.9% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 8.5
10-8 12.5% 6.0% 6.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 11.7
9-9 12.6% 5.1% 5.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 11.9
8-10 14.2% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.3 13.9
7-11 11.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 11.2
6-12 9.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.4
5-13 6.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 6.6
4-14 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.4
3-15 2.4% 2.4
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.3% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 14.5 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.9 1.2 94.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%