Mercer
Southern
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.4#228
Expected Predictive Rating-3.2#227
Pace65.8#258
Improvement+4.1#35

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#237
First Shot-1.6#223
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#231
Layup/Dunks-1.0#211
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#112
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#155
Freethrows-2.4#328
Improvement+3.6#29

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#206
First Shot-2.0#242
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#96
Layups/Dunks-1.3#237
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#205
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#63
Freethrows-3.6#350
Improvement+0.5#152
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 3.2% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 5.4% 23.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 5.4% 23.4% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.7% 1.6% 1.8%
First Round1.7% 2.5% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Away) - 23.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 74 - 10
Quad 49 - 512 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 296   @ Chicago St. W 66-61 55%     1 - 0 +0.3 -2.9 +3.5
  Nov 14, 2023 144   @ Morehead St. L 66-74 23%     1 - 1 -3.6 -6.3 +2.9
  Nov 17, 2023 7   @ Alabama L 67-98 2%     1 - 2 -10.3 -4.3 -4.4
  Nov 24, 2023 290   Tennessee St. W 60-59 62%     2 - 2 -5.6 -11.0 +5.4
  Nov 25, 2023 299   Western Michigan L 66-72 66%     2 - 3 -13.5 -2.9 -11.2
  Dec 01, 2023 77   @ Georgia L 69-80 11%     2 - 4 -1.2 +2.1 -3.6
  Dec 06, 2023 209   South Alabama L 62-83 58%     2 - 5 -26.5 -14.7 -11.6
  Dec 09, 2023 201   Georgia St. W 64-60 57%     3 - 5 -1.3 -1.8 +1.1
  Dec 16, 2023 230   Florida Gulf Coast W 70-65 61%     4 - 5 -1.3 +5.5 -6.0
  Dec 19, 2023 267   Queens W 84-65 67%     5 - 5 +11.0 +3.9 +6.8
  Jan 03, 2024 213   @ East Tennessee St. L 69-80 38%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -11.3 -0.8 -10.8
  Jan 06, 2024 357   @ VMI W 86-64 81%     6 - 6 1 - 1 +9.2 -0.4 +6.8
  Jan 10, 2024 210   @ Wofford L 73-74 37%     6 - 7 1 - 2 -1.1 +2.9 -4.1
  Jan 13, 2024 136   Western Carolina L 52-64 40%     6 - 8 1 - 3 -12.8 -16.8 +3.1
  Jan 17, 2024 146   Chattanooga L 60-74 43%     6 - 9 1 - 4 -15.4 -10.0 -6.8
  Jan 20, 2024 81   @ Samford L 80-87 12%     6 - 10 1 - 5 +2.6 +4.2 -1.0
  Jan 24, 2024 260   @ The Citadel L 66-68 46%     6 - 11 1 - 6 -4.3 -3.0 -1.4
  Jan 27, 2024 150   @ UNC Greensboro W 70-64 25%     7 - 11 2 - 6 +9.7 +1.8 +8.2
  Jan 31, 2024 213   East Tennessee St. L 49-54 59%     7 - 12 2 - 7 -10.7 -16.7 +5.1
  Feb 03, 2024 357   VMI W 90-69 91%     8 - 12 3 - 7 +2.7 +7.6 -5.8
  Feb 07, 2024 133   Furman W 78-69 40%     9 - 12 4 - 7 +8.3 +1.9 +6.2
  Feb 10, 2024 136   @ Western Carolina L 46-79 22%     9 - 13 4 - 8 -28.3 -23.9 -4.6
  Feb 14, 2024 210   Wofford L 60-73 58%     9 - 14 4 - 9 -18.5 -7.9 -12.8
  Feb 17, 2024 81   Samford W 88-84 24%     10 - 14 5 - 9 +8.1 +9.7 -1.9
  Feb 21, 2024 260   The Citadel W 87-78 66%     11 - 14 6 - 9 +1.2 +16.8 -14.9
  Feb 24, 2024 150   UNC Greensboro W 86-72 44%     12 - 14 7 - 9 +12.2 +14.5 -1.8
  Feb 28, 2024 146   @ Chattanooga L 68-75 23%    
  Mar 02, 2024 133   @ Furman L 69-77 22%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 1.0 1.0 5th
6th 4.6 3.5 8.1 6th
7th 47.2 29.3 1.0 77.5 7th
8th 13.4 13.4 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 60.6 34.0 5.4 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 5.4% 3.9% 3.9% 15.7 0.1 0.1 5.2
8-10 34.0% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.9 33.0
7-11 60.6% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 1.2 59.4
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 2.3 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.4% 3.9% 15.7 1.2 2.7
Lose Out 60.6% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 2.0