Mercer
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#190
Expected Predictive Rating+6.7#87
Pace75.7#48
Improvement-1.4#293

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#145
First Shot+1.5#135
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#232
Layup/Dunks-5.3#332
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#102
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#51
Freethrows+0.4#153
Improvement-1.3#293

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#250
First Shot-2.9#267
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#167
Layups/Dunks-3.1#287
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#335
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#88
Freethrows+0.5#160
Improvement+0.0#190
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.0% 21.6% 13.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 13.5 14.4
.500 or above 79.8% 94.8% 79.0%
.500 or above in Conference 80.8% 89.2% 80.3%
Conference Champion 16.5% 27.9% 15.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.1% 0.9%
First Four0.5% 0.1% 0.5%
First Round13.7% 21.6% 13.3%
Second Round0.5% 1.6% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Clemson (Away) - 4.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 54 - 9
Quad 413 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 16 @Tennessee L 61-76 3%     0 - 1 +5.2 -1.5 +6.7
  Sun, Nov 9 152 Lipscomb W 92-77 54%     1 - 1 +12.1 +21.3 -8.9
  Sat, Nov 15 107 @Winthrop L 69-105 19%     1 - 2 -28.8 -12.0 -12.0
  Sat, Nov 22 263 @Eastern Kentucky W 95-83 53%     2 - 2 +9.3 +17.2 -8.2
  Wed, Nov 26 279 Appalachian St. W 75-67 76%     3 - 2 -1.6 +7.8 -8.3
  Sat, Nov 29 207 @Elon W 91-84 42%     4 - 2 +7.1 +6.7 -0.2
  Tue, Dec 2 335 Georgia St. W 78-67 86%     5 - 2 -2.6 -0.3 -2.4
  Sat, Dec 13 34 @Clemson L 66-84 5%    
  Wed, Dec 17 65 @Central Florida L 77-91 10%    
  Sat, Dec 20 158 @Washington St. L 80-85 33%    
  Wed, Dec 31 165 @Furman L 74-78 34%    
  Sat, Jan 3 137 @East Tennessee St. L 74-81 27%    
  Wed, Jan 7 362 The Citadel W 85-69 93%    
  Sat, Jan 10 213 Wofford W 83-79 64%    
  Thu, Jan 15 338 @VMI W 82-76 71%    
  Sat, Jan 17 294 @UNC Greensboro W 79-77 58%    
  Wed, Jan 21 276 Western Carolina W 83-76 75%    
  Sat, Jan 24 213 @Wofford L 80-82 44%    
  Thu, Jan 29 294 UNC Greensboro W 82-74 78%    
  Sat, Jan 31 338 VMI W 85-73 86%    
  Thu, Feb 5 206 @Chattanooga L 76-78 42%    
  Sat, Feb 7 224 @Samford L 79-80 46%    
  Wed, Feb 11 165 Furman W 77-75 57%    
  Sat, Feb 14 362 @The Citadel W 82-72 81%    
  Thu, Feb 19 206 Chattanooga W 79-75 63%    
  Sat, Feb 21 224 Samford W 82-77 67%    
  Wed, Feb 25 276 @Western Carolina W 80-79 55%    
  Sat, Feb 28 137 East Tennessee St. L 77-78 48%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 3.1 4.9 4.3 2.4 0.8 0.1 16.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 5.1 6.5 3.3 0.8 0.1 17.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 6.2 5.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 16.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 5.8 5.4 1.5 0.1 14.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 4.8 4.8 1.1 0.0 12.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.9 3.7 0.9 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.7 2.4 0.6 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 4.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.2 5.4 8.1 11.0 13.3 14.4 13.3 11.6 8.5 5.2 2.5 0.8 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 96.6% 2.4    2.2 0.2
15-3 84.3% 4.3    3.3 1.0 0.0
14-4 57.8% 4.9    2.6 2.0 0.4 0.0
13-5 26.5% 3.1    0.8 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.6% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.5% 16.5 9.9 4.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 48.8% 48.8% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.8% 49.2% 49.2% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-2 2.5% 38.9% 38.9% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.5
15-3 5.2% 32.5% 32.5% 13.6 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 3.5
14-4 8.5% 25.3% 25.3% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.0 6.3
13-5 11.6% 22.4% 22.4% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.0 9.0
12-6 13.3% 15.7% 15.7% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.1 11.2
11-7 14.4% 11.2% 11.2% 14.8 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.2 12.8
10-8 13.3% 8.4% 8.4% 15.2 0.1 0.6 0.4 12.2
9-9 11.0% 6.5% 6.5% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 10.3
8-10 8.1% 4.2% 4.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 7.8
7-11 5.4% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.3
6-12 3.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 3.1
5-13 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.5
4-14 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 14.0% 14.0% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.3 5.0 4.6 1.6 86.0 0.0%