Chattanooga
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.3 #242
Expected Predictive Rating -7.6 #282
Pace 65.6 #281
Improvement +2.4 #53

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #184 C- C- F B+ C-
Defense #294 C- C- F D+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #349 1.11 #237 -5.9 #337
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #198 0.86 #70 +0.6 #142
Three Pointers 51% #24 0.95 #247 +3.5 #76
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #222 -1.7 #222
Freethrows 15.5 #279 75% #114 11.6 #239
Second Chance 19.3% #364 1.17 #51 0.23 #337
Turnovers 14.3% #51
Total Offense -0.7 #184

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #307 1.30 #319 +0.5 #165
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #166 0.67 #76 +0.8 #138
Three Pointers 46% #64 1.06 #242 -3.5 #300
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #242 -2.2 #241
Freethrows 18.1 #223 73% #198 13.1 #221
Second Chance 33.0% #271 1.30 #355 0.43 #349
Turnovers 15.2% #273
Total Defense -3.6 #294

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1% #263 -0.8% #108
Shot Type Make Effect -2.4% #213 5.1% #266
Possession Length 17.7 #233 18.3 #328
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #317 0.17 #151
Improvement -0.2 #199 +2.6 #34
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.5% 8.2% 4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.5
.500 or above 29.2% 40.0% 18.5%
.500 or above in Conference 63.7% 76.3% 51.1%
Conference Champion 5.9% 9.3% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 0.9% 3.7%
First Four2.0% 1.9% 2.1%
First Round5.6% 7.3% 3.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Greensboro (Away) - 49.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 411 - 713 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 43 @St. Mary's L 66-87 5%     -11.9   0 - 1 -5.9 +3.6 -10.3
  Sat, Nov 8 132 @UNLV L 69-101 19%     -10.7   0 - 2 -27.2 +0.1 -28.3
  Sat, Nov 15 186 @Florida Gulf Coast L 73-91 30%     -13.0   0 - 3 -16.8 -0.3 -16.7
  Wed, Nov 19 359 @South Carolina St. W 78-66 77%     7.9   1 - 3 +0.1 -2.8 +2.5
  Sat, Nov 22 246 North Alabama W 71-57 63%     5.6   2 - 3 +6.3 +6.3 +2.3
  Sun, Nov 30 222 Tennessee St. L 64-70 59%     -7.6   2 - 4 -12.7 -6.1 -7.0
  Sat, Dec 6 220 Southeast Missouri St. L 70-74 59%     0.6   2 - 5 -10.5 -1.7 -9.1
  Sat, Dec 13 32 Auburn L 78-92 5%     -6.8   2 - 6 +0.2 +9.6 -9.4
  Wed, Dec 17 267 @Bellarmine L 64-79 44%     1.3   2 - 7 -17.9 -11.8 -6.5
  Sun, Dec 21 293 @Alabama A&M W 73-66 49%     4.3   3 - 7 +3.0 +6.9 -3.2
  Thu, Jan 1 295 @UNC Greensboro W 74-73 50%    
  Sat, Jan 3 332 @VMI W 76-73 61%    
  Wed, Jan 7 143 Furman L 72-74 41%    
  Sat, Jan 10 232 Samford W 75-72 60%    
  Wed, Jan 14 221 @Wofford L 71-75 37%    
  Sat, Jan 17 297 @Western Carolina W 75-74 52%    
  Wed, Jan 21 129 East Tennessee St. L 71-74 38%    
  Sat, Jan 24 232 @Samford L 72-75 37%    
  Thu, Jan 29 221 Wofford W 74-72 59%    
  Sun, Feb 1 143 @Furman L 69-77 23%    
  Thu, Feb 5 176 Mercer L 76-77 50%    
  Sat, Feb 7 358 The Citadel W 77-64 88%    
  Wed, Feb 11 129 @East Tennessee St. L 68-77 20%    
  Sat, Feb 14 297 Western Carolina W 78-72 72%    
  Thu, Feb 19 176 @Mercer L 74-80 30%    
  Sat, Feb 21 358 @The Citadel W 74-67 74%    
  Thu, Feb 26 295 UNC Greensboro W 76-70 70%    
  Sat, Feb 28 332 VMI W 79-70 80%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 3.3 3.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 9.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 4.9 4.4 1.5 0.1 12.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 6.8 5.8 1.0 0.1 16.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.6 6.8 5.2 1.1 0.0 16.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.0 4.7 0.7 0.0 14.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.6 3.5 0.7 0.0 11.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.4 2.0 0.4 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 4.1 7.0 9.7 12.6 14.7 14.6 12.8 9.3 6.4 3.5 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 95.9% 0.7    0.7 0.1
15-3 80.1% 1.2    0.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 53.0% 1.8    0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-5 23.6% 1.5    0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1
12-6 5.5% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 2.9 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.7% 34.2% 34.2% 14.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5
15-3 1.5% 25.8% 25.8% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.1
14-4 3.5% 15.3% 15.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.9
13-5 6.4% 16.3% 16.3% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 5.4
12-6 9.3% 11.1% 11.1% 15.4 0.1 0.5 0.5 8.3
11-7 12.8% 8.4% 8.4% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.7 11.7
10-8 14.6% 6.9% 6.9% 15.9 0.1 0.9 13.6
9-9 14.7% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.5 14.2
8-10 12.6% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4 12.2
7-11 9.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 9.6
6-12 7.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 6.9
5-13 4.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.1
4-14 1.9% 1.9
3-15 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 15.4 0.2 0.6 2.3 3.4 93.5 0.0%