Chattanooga
Southern
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#157
Expected Predictive Rating-1.9#209
Pace66.4#236
Improvement-0.7#272

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#70
First Shot+3.2#79
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#119
Layup/Dunks-3.8#326
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#363
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.8#1
Freethrows+1.2#91
Improvement-0.3#244

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#274
First Shot-3.9#302
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#120
Layups/Dunks-0.4#199
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#158
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#321
Freethrows-0.1#198
Improvement-0.4#251
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.0% 13.5% 10.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 14.8 15.4
.500 or above 60.2% 83.2% 53.3%
.500 or above in Conference 60.2% 83.2% 53.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four3.0% 1.6% 3.5%
First Round10.0% 13.0% 9.1%
Second Round0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Away) - 23.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 34 - 45 - 9
Quad 49 - 514 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 79   @ College of Charleston L 78-85 20%     0 - 1 +2.4 +3.6 -0.7
  Nov 15, 2022 96   @ Mississippi L 58-70 24%     0 - 2 -4.1 -5.0 -0.1
  Nov 23, 2022 194   Lipscomb L 66-72 67%     0 - 3 -9.9 -7.7 -2.4
  Nov 26, 2022 161   Murray St. W 69-66 61%     1 - 3 +0.7 -1.2 +2.1
  Nov 30, 2022 301   @ Tennessee Tech W 81-74 71%     2 - 3 +2.0 +5.4 -3.3
  Dec 03, 2022 196   @ Gardner-Webb W 82-71 47%     3 - 3 +12.3 +10.1 +1.8
  Dec 06, 2022 213   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 88-76 70%     4 - 3 +7.1 +14.2 -7.0
  Dec 15, 2022 120   @ Middle Tennessee W 82-73 32%     5 - 3 +14.3 +18.2 -3.3
  Dec 18, 2022 127   Belmont L 79-83 OT 54%     5 - 4 -4.3 +2.3 -6.5
  Dec 21, 2022 102   @ Georgia L 65-72 26%     5 - 5 +0.2 -0.1 -0.1
  Dec 29, 2022 296   @ The Citadel L 68-76 70%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -12.8 -2.6 -10.8
  Dec 31, 2022 227   @ Mercer W 80-51 54%     6 - 6 1 - 1 +28.5 +11.1 +18.9
  Jan 04, 2023 139   @ UNC Greensboro L 61-73 36%     6 - 7 1 - 2 -7.6 -2.9 -5.1
  Jan 07, 2023 335   VMI W 85-78 90%     7 - 7 2 - 2 -6.1 +7.0 -12.8
  Jan 11, 2023 260   Western Carolina W 95-76 79%     8 - 7 3 - 2 +11.2 +20.7 -8.9
  Jan 14, 2023 145   @ Samford L 74-75 38%     8 - 8 3 - 3 +2.8 +4.7 -2.0
  Jan 18, 2023 93   Furman L 69-77 42%     8 - 9 3 - 4 -5.3 -4.7 -0.8
  Jan 21, 2023 234   East Tennessee St. L 62-78 75%     8 - 10 3 - 5 -22.5 -13.9 -8.2
  Jan 25, 2023 195   Wofford L 80-85 67%     8 - 11 3 - 6 -9.0 +3.3 -12.3
  Jan 28, 2023 234   @ East Tennessee St. W 73-64 57%     9 - 11 4 - 6 +7.9 +8.5 +0.3
  Feb 01, 2023 93   @ Furman L 74-81 23%    
  Feb 04, 2023 260   @ Western Carolina W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 08, 2023 296   The Citadel W 79-68 85%    
  Feb 11, 2023 227   Mercer W 73-67 74%    
  Feb 15, 2023 335   @ VMI W 79-71 77%    
  Feb 18, 2023 139   UNC Greensboro W 67-65 57%    
  Feb 22, 2023 145   Samford W 76-74 60%    
  Feb 25, 2023 195   @ Wofford L 73-74 46%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 2.9 0.9 5.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 10.4 16.8 5.6 0.4 34.0 4th
5th 0.3 7.9 14.4 3.7 0.1 26.4 5th
6th 0.0 2.9 10.4 2.8 0.1 16.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 5.5 3.2 0.1 9.5 7th
8th 0.2 2.3 2.9 0.3 5.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.8 4.3 11.9 22.6 27.8 21.9 8.8 1.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 1.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 1.7% 20.6% 20.6% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.3
11-7 8.8% 18.0% 18.0% 14.5 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.0 7.2
10-8 21.9% 13.9% 13.9% 14.9 0.5 2.4 0.2 18.9
9-9 27.8% 10.9% 10.9% 15.6 0.0 1.2 1.8 24.8
8-10 22.6% 8.9% 8.9% 15.9 0.1 1.9 20.6
7-11 11.9% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.7 11.2
6-12 4.3% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.2 4.1
5-13 0.8% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.5 4.9 89.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 20.6% 13.5 1.0 9.7 9.3 0.7
Lose Out 0.1%