Chattanooga
Southern
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#146
Expected Predictive Rating+1.6#139
Pace67.5#216
Improvement+3.2#61

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#105
First Shot+3.9#71
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#260
Layup/Dunks-3.6#309
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#334
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.7#3
Freethrows-0.2#194
Improvement+3.0#43

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#218
First Shot-1.1#208
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#214
Layups/Dunks-1.3#238
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#14
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#332
Freethrows+1.6#70
Improvement+0.1#172
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.5% 10.9% 9.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round10.5% 10.9% 9.0%
Second Round0.8% 0.8% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercer (Home) - 76.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 35 - 66 - 8
Quad 412 - 218 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2023 172   @ Louisville W 81-71 46%     1 - 0 +12.2 +3.3 +8.2
  Nov 14, 2023 310   Bellarmine W 72-64 87%     2 - 0 -3.0 -2.8 +0.2
  Nov 19, 2023 330   Tennessee Tech W 68-63 91%     3 - 0 -8.2 -3.9 -3.8
  Nov 24, 2023 218   Evansville L 77-85 OT 75%     3 - 1 -13.8 -7.0 -6.0
  Nov 26, 2023 352   Southeast Missouri St. W 72-56 95%     4 - 1 -1.2 -3.4 +3.0
  Nov 29, 2023 166   @ Lipscomb L 68-82 46%     4 - 2 -11.6 -8.3 -3.2
  Dec 03, 2023 144   @ Morehead St. L 80-87 38%     4 - 3 -2.6 +13.3 -16.3
  Dec 16, 2023 337   @ Alabama A&M W 88-72 84%     5 - 3 +6.9 +11.7 -5.2
  Dec 19, 2023 199   Gardner-Webb W 69-66 73%     6 - 3 -2.2 -3.4 +1.3
  Dec 22, 2023 246   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 83-85 OT 60%     6 - 4 -3.4 -0.2 -3.0
  Dec 30, 2023 5   @ Auburn L 66-101 4%     6 - 5 -13.0 +3.6 -16.3
  Jan 03, 2024 81   @ Samford L 74-89 21%     6 - 6 0 - 1 -5.4 +1.2 -6.0
  Jan 06, 2024 133   Furman W 73-58 58%     7 - 6 1 - 1 +14.3 -5.5 +19.0
  Jan 11, 2024 357   VMI W 109-61 96%     8 - 6 2 - 1 +29.7 +22.7 +3.5
  Jan 13, 2024 150   UNC Greensboro L 54-70 62%     8 - 7 2 - 2 -17.8 -15.8 -3.5
  Jan 17, 2024 228   @ Mercer W 74-60 57%     9 - 7 3 - 2 +13.4 +8.4 +6.3
  Jan 21, 2024 213   @ East Tennessee St. W 81-74 56%     10 - 7 4 - 2 +6.7 +12.7 -5.7
  Jan 24, 2024 210   @ Wofford W 79-65 55%     11 - 7 5 - 2 +13.9 +7.4 +7.1
  Jan 27, 2024 260   The Citadel W 90-62 80%     12 - 7 6 - 2 +20.2 +18.9 +3.1
  Jan 31, 2024 136   @ Western Carolina W 91-85 37%     13 - 7 7 - 2 +10.7 +20.7 -10.1
  Feb 03, 2024 81   Samford L 56-78 39%     13 - 8 7 - 3 -17.9 -14.7 -4.0
  Feb 08, 2024 357   @ VMI W 88-84 90%     14 - 8 8 - 3 -8.8 +2.2 -11.5
  Feb 10, 2024 150   @ UNC Greensboro W 89-61 41%     15 - 8 9 - 3 +31.7 +31.0 +5.1
  Feb 14, 2024 213   East Tennessee St. W 84-71 75%     16 - 8 10 - 3 +7.3 +16.8 -8.4
  Feb 18, 2024 133   @ Furman L 65-82 37%     16 - 9 10 - 4 -12.2 -4.8 -7.9
  Feb 21, 2024 210   Wofford W 81-65 74%     17 - 9 11 - 4 +10.5 +9.0 +2.6
  Feb 24, 2024 260   @ The Citadel L 62-71 64%     17 - 10 11 - 5 -11.3 -8.7 -3.0
  Feb 28, 2024 228   Mercer W 75-68 77%    
  Mar 02, 2024 136   Western Carolina W 74-72 59%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 21.1 45.6 66.8 2nd
3rd 7.1 23.2 30.3 3rd
4th 2.9 2.9 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 10.1 44.3 45.6 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 45.6% 12.0% 12.0% 13.6 0.2 2.1 2.8 0.4 40.1
12-6 44.3% 9.4% 9.4% 13.9 0.0 0.9 2.5 0.7 0.0 40.1
11-7 10.1% 8.3% 8.3% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 9.3
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 13.8 0.2 3.1 5.7 1.5 0.0 89.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 45.6% 12.0% 13.6 0.3 4.5 6.3 0.9
Lose Out 10.1% 8.3% 14.4 0.0 0.4 4.1 3.5 0.3