Chattanooga
Southern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.8#100
Expected Predictive Rating+9.5#63
Pace58.0#355
Improvement-0.7#238

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#83
First Shot+1.3#138
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#59
Layup/Dunks+0.6#142
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#116
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#186
Freethrows+0.2#166
Improvement-1.2#296

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#130
First Shot+2.5#100
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#267
Layups/Dunks-0.2#201
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#327
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#99
Freethrows+3.4#14
Improvement+0.5#135
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.8% 27.9% 21.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.4% 3.4% 0.5%
Average Seed 12.2 12.0 12.6
.500 or above 96.3% 98.1% 92.9%
.500 or above in Conference 92.3% 94.1% 88.8%
Conference Champion 34.5% 38.1% 27.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
First Four1.2% 1.6% 0.4%
First Round25.3% 27.1% 21.6%
Second Round5.6% 6.4% 4.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.5% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Away) - 66.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 23 - 23 - 3
Quad 37 - 410 - 7
Quad 412 - 222 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 130   @ Loyola Marymount W 75-64 48%     1 - 0 +16.3 +10.9 +6.7
  Nov 14, 2021 270   UNC Asheville W 75-45 90%     2 - 0 +21.0 +7.0 +17.6
  Nov 16, 2021 277   Tennessee Tech W 69-62 90%     3 - 0 -2.2 +2.1 -3.1
  Nov 20, 2021 85   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 56-54 32%     4 - 0 +11.5 +5.8 +6.1
  Nov 27, 2021 198   College of Charleston L 66-68 81%     4 - 1 -6.6 -7.8 +1.2
  Nov 30, 2021 277   @ Tennessee Tech W 82-65 78%     5 - 1 +13.8 +8.6 +5.7
  Dec 05, 2021 222   @ Lipscomb W 70-66 66%    
  Dec 08, 2021 270   @ UNC Asheville W 70-62 76%    
  Dec 15, 2021 68   @ Belmont L 66-72 30%    
  Dec 18, 2021 89   @ Murray St. L 61-65 35%    
  Dec 22, 2021 183   Middle Tennessee W 69-60 78%    
  Dec 30, 2021 123   East Tennessee St. W 66-61 67%    
  Jan 01, 2022 196   @ Mercer W 67-64 61%    
  Jan 05, 2022 119   @ Wofford L 64-65 46%    
  Jan 08, 2022 238   The Citadel W 76-64 85%    
  Jan 12, 2022 302   @ Western Carolina W 74-64 80%    
  Jan 15, 2022 105   Furman W 69-66 61%    
  Jan 20, 2022 167   @ UNC Greensboro W 61-59 57%    
  Jan 22, 2022 261   @ VMI W 69-62 74%    
  Jan 26, 2022 119   Wofford W 67-62 67%    
  Jan 29, 2022 238   @ The Citadel W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 02, 2022 239   @ Samford W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 05, 2022 196   Mercer W 70-61 79%    
  Feb 09, 2022 302   Western Carolina W 77-61 91%    
  Feb 12, 2022 105   @ Furman L 66-69 41%    
  Feb 17, 2022 167   UNC Greensboro W 64-56 75%    
  Feb 19, 2022 261   VMI W 72-59 88%    
  Feb 23, 2022 123   @ East Tennessee St. L 63-64 47%    
  Feb 26, 2022 239   Samford W 77-65 84%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 4.3 8.3 10.1 6.6 3.1 0.9 34.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 5.8 7.5 5.1 1.6 0.2 22.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 5.2 5.9 2.7 0.5 15.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 4.9 4.1 1.2 0.1 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 2.9 3.1 0.5 0.0 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 4.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.2 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 2.0 4.1 5.6 10.0 11.6 14.0 14.6 13.9 11.7 6.9 3.1 0.9 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 100.0% 3.1    3.1
16-2 96.5% 6.6    6.1 0.5
15-3 86.1% 10.1    7.8 2.1 0.1
14-4 59.8% 8.3    4.4 3.4 0.6 0.0
13-5 29.6% 4.3    1.5 2.1 0.7 0.1
12-6 7.5% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 34.5% 34.5 23.9 8.6 1.7 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 73.9% 50.6% 23.3% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 47.2%
17-1 3.1% 64.3% 50.4% 13.8% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.1 27.9%
16-2 6.9% 55.5% 46.6% 9.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.0 16.8%
15-3 11.7% 40.1% 36.8% 3.3% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.7 1.0 0.0 7.0 5.2%
14-4 13.9% 32.1% 30.8% 1.2% 12.5 0.0 0.3 2.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 9.5 1.8%
13-5 14.6% 25.6% 25.6% 12.7 0.1 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 10.9
12-6 14.0% 20.4% 20.4% 13.1 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.1 11.2
11-7 11.6% 14.0% 14.0% 13.4 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 10.0
10-8 10.0% 12.3% 12.3% 13.8 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 8.7
9-9 5.6% 8.5% 8.5% 13.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 5.1
8-10 4.1% 5.8% 5.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.9
7-11 2.0% 1.2% 1.2% 14.1 0.0 0.0 2.0
6-12 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.1% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.8% 24.0% 1.8% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 3.1 9.4 7.5 2.8 0.8 0.0 74.2 2.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.0 1.9 37.7 41.5 18.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 7.3 33.3 33.3 33.3