Preseason Rankings
Chattanooga
Southern
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#125
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.5#218
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#91
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#197
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.7% 33.3% 22.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.1 12.1 13.1
.500 or above 82.7% 94.8% 80.9%
.500 or above in Conference 87.7% 94.4% 86.7%
Conference Champion 31.7% 44.8% 29.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.1% 1.0%
First Four0.6% 0.3% 0.6%
First Round23.7% 33.4% 22.2%
Second Round2.8% 5.3% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 1.0% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Away) - 13.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 45 - 8
Quad 414 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2025 49   @ St. Mary's L 58-70 13%    
  Nov 08, 2025 86   @ UNLV L 67-74 26%    
  Nov 15, 2025 181   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 70-69 53%    
  Nov 19, 2025 311   @ South Carolina St. W 77-69 75%    
  Nov 22, 2025 195   North Alabama W 75-68 75%    
  Nov 30, 2025 259   Tennessee St. W 80-70 82%    
  Dec 06, 2025 231   Southeast Missouri St. W 77-68 78%    
  Dec 13, 2025 22   Auburn L 67-81 12%    
  Dec 17, 2025 320   @ Bellarmine W 77-69 77%    
  Dec 21, 2025 325   @ Alabama A&M W 80-71 78%    
  Jan 01, 2026 225   @ UNC Greensboro W 69-66 59%    
  Jan 03, 2026 296   @ VMI W 76-69 71%    
  Jan 07, 2026 133   Furman W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 10, 2026 166   Samford W 80-74 70%    
  Jan 14, 2026 206   @ Wofford W 70-68 56%    
  Jan 17, 2026 273   @ Western Carolina W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 21, 2026 152   East Tennessee St. W 72-67 65%    
  Jan 24, 2026 166   @ Samford W 78-77 50%    
  Jan 29, 2026 206   Wofford W 73-65 74%    
  Feb 01, 2026 133   @ Furman L 70-73 42%    
  Feb 05, 2026 248   Mercer W 80-70 79%    
  Feb 07, 2026 342   The Citadel W 77-60 92%    
  Feb 11, 2026 152   @ East Tennessee St. L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 14, 2026 273   Western Carolina W 80-69 82%    
  Feb 19, 2026 248   @ Mercer W 77-73 62%    
  Feb 21, 2026 342   @ The Citadel W 74-63 81%    
  Feb 26, 2026 225   UNC Greensboro W 72-63 76%    
  Feb 28, 2026 296   VMI W 79-66 85%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 3.2 6.1 8.5 7.5 4.2 1.5 31.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.3 6.9 5.6 2.2 0.3 20.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 4.5 5.5 2.7 0.6 0.0 14.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.9 4.2 1.5 0.1 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.1 2.8 0.9 0.1 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.4 4.7 6.7 8.7 10.9 12.1 12.9 12.2 10.7 7.8 4.2 1.5 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
17-1 100.0% 4.2    4.0 0.1
16-2 96.2% 7.5    6.8 0.8 0.0
15-3 79.0% 8.5    6.2 2.2 0.1
14-4 49.6% 6.1    3.0 2.5 0.5 0.0
13-5 24.7% 3.2    0.9 1.5 0.7 0.1
12-6 5.4% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 31.7% 31.7 22.5 7.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.5% 70.1% 68.0% 2.1% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.5 6.6%
17-1 4.2% 54.2% 53.5% 0.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.9 1.5%
16-2 7.8% 51.4% 51.3% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.8 0.2%
15-3 10.7% 39.7% 39.7% 12.6 0.3 1.7 1.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.5
14-4 12.2% 31.6% 31.6% 13.0 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 8.4
13-5 12.9% 24.3% 24.3% 13.6 0.0 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.0 9.8
12-6 12.1% 16.6% 16.6% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 10.1
11-7 10.9% 13.0% 13.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 9.5
10-8 8.7% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 7.8
9-9 6.7% 6.5% 6.5% 16.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 6.3
8-10 4.7% 4.8% 4.8% 17.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.4
7-11 3.4% 2.8% 2.8% 17.3 0.0 0.1 3.3
6-12 2.2% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.1
5-13 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-14 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 23.7% 23.6% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2.6 6.5 6.4 4.5 2.4 1.0 76.3 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.5 9.5 9.5 23.8 47.6 9.5