Summit League
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
61 South Dakota St. 56.9%   13   5 - 2 0 - 0 23 - 6 15 - 3 +7.7      +8.2 15 -0.5 189 77.6 30 +9.2 67 0.0 1
168 North Dakota St. 11.9%   3 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 11 11 - 7 -0.2      -0.5 189 +0.2 167 63.1 319 +2.3 141 0.0 1
181 Oral Roberts 10.1%   0 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 13 11 - 7 -1.0      +2.5 102 -3.4 282 75.5 52 -17.1 348 0.0 1
190 Western Illinois 8.3%   3 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 11 11 - 7 -1.3      -0.6 191 -0.7 196 77.1 37 +5.3 103 0.0 1
191 UMKC 8.6%   2 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 11 11 - 7 -1.3      -0.2 178 -1.1 215 61.7 338 +2.9 133 0.0 1
231 South Dakota 4.6%   3 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 12 9 - 9 -3.4      -0.5 190 -2.9 270 70.7 142 +1.4 160 0.0 1
322 North Dakota 0.3%   2 - 4 0 - 0 9 - 20 6 - 12 -9.7      -2.5 248 -7.2 346 67.6 229 -8.5 297 0.0 1
324 Denver 0.4%   2 - 4 0 - 0 9 - 20 6 - 12 -9.9      -5.1 306 -4.8 307 68.2 213 -12.1 324 0.0 1
330 Nebraska Omaha 0.3%   0 - 5 0 - 0 7 - 21 5 - 13 -10.9      -5.3 310 -5.7 326 70.0 164 -7.9 288 0.0 1
333 St. Thomas 0.0%   3 - 4 0 - 0 8 - 19 5 - 13 -11.2      0.0 171 -11.2 357 67.0 239 -7.4 283 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
South Dakota St. 1.4 76.0 15.6 5.4 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1
North Dakota St. 3.5 12.0 23.7 21.4 16.6 12.4 7.4 3.9 1.5 0.8 0.2
Oral Roberts 3.9 8.8 20.2 19.2 16.5 14.7 10.6 5.3 2.9 1.3 0.6
Western Illinois 3.9 7.9 19.7 19.6 18.3 14.9 9.9 5.3 2.6 1.5 0.3
UMKC 3.9 8.6 18.1 19.5 17.9 14.7 10.7 6.1 2.3 1.3 0.8
South Dakota 4.9 3.3 10.2 14.4 16.1 17.4 17.5 11.5 5.4 2.9 1.4
North Dakota 7.5 0.1 1.1 2.2 4.2 6.6 12.6 18.2 21.8 18.0 15.3
Denver 7.6 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.8 7.3 11.6 19.2 20.5 20.0 15.3
Nebraska Omaha 8.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.6 5.2 9.4 15.2 20.6 22.3 22.7
St. Thomas 8.1 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.1 4.9 9.3 15.6 20.0 22.7 24.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
South Dakota St. 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 4.0 8.1 13.5 19.7 21.5 19.3 10.7
North Dakota St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.2 3.8 5.8 8.5 12.0 14.2 16.5 12.9 10.1 7.2 3.3 1.6 0.3
Oral Roberts 11 - 7 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 3.2 5.6 8.2 10.4 13.6 14.1 12.9 10.9 9.3 5.3 2.7 0.7 0.1
Western Illinois 11 - 7 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 3.0 5.0 7.7 12.2 12.3 14.8 14.4 12.4 8.1 4.9 1.6 0.7 0.1
UMKC 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.5 3.1 6.0 8.1 10.7 13.5 14.9 13.4 10.4 8.3 5.0 2.9 0.6 0.1
South Dakota 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 4.0 7.5 8.9 12.6 14.0 14.2 12.0 10.2 6.1 4.0 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1
North Dakota 6 - 12 0.5 2.7 6.4 10.3 13.7 14.8 16.1 11.8 9.4 6.6 4.0 1.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Denver 6 - 12 0.4 2.2 6.4 11.2 15.2 15.0 14.9 13.0 9.2 6.1 3.3 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 5 - 13 1.1 4.1 9.1 13.4 16.6 15.7 14.1 10.1 6.6 4.8 2.4 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1
St. Thomas 5 - 13 1.2 4.6 10.3 14.5 15.0 16.5 14.2 9.2 7.1 4.0 2.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
South Dakota St. 76.0% 63.6 11.0 1.3 0.1 0.1
North Dakota St. 12.0% 6.4 4.7 0.8 0.0 0.1
Oral Roberts 8.8% 4.7 3.3 0.7 0.0 0.1
Western Illinois 7.9% 3.8 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.1
UMKC 8.6% 4.4 3.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
South Dakota 3.3% 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.1
North Dakota 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0
Denver 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Thomas 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
South Dakota St. 56.9% 55.6% 1.2% 13   0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.5 5.2 17.1 17.8 7.8 2.3 0.3 43.2 2.8%
North Dakota St. 11.9% 11.8% 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.1 3.0 4.7 2.4 88.1 0.1%
Oral Roberts 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 2.0 3.5 3.8 89.9 0.0%
Western Illinois 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.6 1.4 91.7 0.0%
UMKC 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.4 2.6 2.1 91.4 0.0%
South Dakota 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 1.6 95.4 0.0%
North Dakota 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Denver 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%
St. Thomas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
South Dakota St. 56.9% 1.0% 56.5% 15.3% 4.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 11.9% 0.7% 11.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 10.1% 1.6% 9.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 8.3% 0.3% 8.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 8.6% 0.7% 8.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 4.6% 0.7% 4.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Thomas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.7 1.3
1st Round 98.1% 1.0 1.9 97.2 0.9
2nd Round 18.7% 0.2 81.3 18.7
Sweet Sixteen 5.4% 0.1 94.6 5.4
Elite Eight 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0