Summit League
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
105 Oral Roberts 56.9%   15   1 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 8 14 - 4 +4.5      +7.2 25 -2.8 259 74.6 63 +4.2 111 0.0 1
141 South Dakota St. 31.0%   3 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 11 13 - 5 +2.0      +1.1 142 +0.9 151 74.9 57 +3.5 124 0.0 1
230 South Dakota 5.7%   2 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 8 -3.6      +1.2 140 -4.8 305 64.8 278 -2.5 220 0.0 1
281 UMKC 1.9%   2 - 6 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -6.1      -4.3 304 -1.9 232 64.3 290 -4.1 240 0.0 1
289 Nebraska Omaha 1.3%   3 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 19 8 - 10 -6.8      -2.4 244 -4.4 296 72.6 86 -2.2 217 0.0 1
290 St. Thomas 0.0%   5 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 10 -6.8      +0.1 169 -6.9 337 64.7 281 +2.7 136 0.0 1
297 North Dakota 1.0%   4 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 11 -7.6      -1.9 227 -5.7 313 66.4 240 -3.2 230 0.0 1
298 Western Illinois 1.2%   2 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 15 7 - 11 -7.7      -2.4 243 -5.2 309 73.6 71 -4.8 249 0.0 1
303 North Dakota St. 0.8%   0 - 7 0 - 0 8 - 20 7 - 11 -7.8      -3.0 269 -4.8 304 72.0 98 -14.7 339 0.0 1
309 Denver 0.7%   5 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 11 -8.6      -3.6 287 -5.0 306 68.1 202 -0.3 178 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Oral Roberts 1.6 63.9 23.1 7.1 3.1 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
South Dakota St. 2.1 36.7 37.5 13.5 6.0 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1
South Dakota 4.3 6.6 15.2 21.9 16.3 12.5 8.9 7.3 5.2 3.8 2.3
UMKC 5.6 2.1 6.8 13.4 14.8 14.1 12.7 11.5 10.2 8.3 6.2
Nebraska Omaha 6.0 1.5 5.2 10.9 13.2 13.7 13.0 12.8 11.5 10.1 8.0
St. Thomas 6.0 1.4 5.3 11.1 13.1 13.3 13.2 12.6 11.5 10.3 8.0
North Dakota 6.4 1.0 3.5 8.9 11.0 12.7 13.0 13.2 12.7 12.9 11.1
Western Illinois 6.4 1.2 4.1 8.8 11.2 11.7 12.6 12.8 12.6 12.7 12.3
North Dakota St. 6.5 0.9 3.5 8.4 10.7 11.6 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.1 12.7
Denver 6.9 0.8 2.8 6.6 9.1 10.4 11.6 12.2 14.4 15.2 17.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Oral Roberts 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.9 4.9 7.6 11.3 14.9 18.1 17.6 13.5 6.3
South Dakota St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.4 6.2 9.2 12.8 15.7 16.8 14.9 10.9 5.5 1.5
South Dakota 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.9 3.3 5.7 8.3 11.0 13.0 13.7 12.8 11.4 8.3 5.2 2.9 1.1 0.4 0.0
UMKC 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.3 4.7 7.6 10.3 13.3 14.0 13.9 11.7 8.9 6.0 3.4 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.2 5.7 8.9 12.6 13.8 14.2 13.0 10.5 7.4 4.5 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Thomas 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.3 5.8 9.0 12.2 14.1 14.1 13.1 10.5 7.3 4.9 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Dakota 7 - 11 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.7 7.6 11.1 13.2 14.4 14.1 11.7 8.6 5.8 3.3 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Western Illinois 7 - 11 0.2 0.8 2.4 4.8 8.0 10.8 13.2 14.0 13.4 11.1 8.5 6.0 3.4 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
North Dakota St. 7 - 11 0.1 0.8 2.5 5.2 8.1 11.3 13.4 14.1 13.8 11.2 8.3 5.4 3.2 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Denver 7 - 11 0.3 1.4 3.7 6.5 10.0 12.7 14.6 13.2 12.3 9.5 7.1 4.2 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Oral Roberts 63.9% 51.7 10.8 1.3 0.1 0.0
South Dakota St. 36.7% 25.9 9.6 1.1 0.1 0.0
South Dakota 6.6% 3.7 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
UMKC 2.1% 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 1.5% 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
St. Thomas 1.4% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Dakota 1.0% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
Western Illinois 1.2% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
North Dakota St. 0.9% 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Denver 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Oral Roberts 56.9% 56.5% 0.4% 15   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 3.0 9.9 18.6 15.5 6.3 1.5 43.1 0.9%
South Dakota St. 31.0% 31.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.6 10.2 9.8 4.9 1.6 69.0 0.1%
South Dakota 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.0 2.4 94.3 0.0%
UMKC 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.3 98.1 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 98.7 0.0%
St. Thomas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
North Dakota 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 99.0 0.0%
Western Illinois 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 98.8 0.0%
North Dakota St. 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.7 99.2 0.0%
Denver 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.3 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Oral Roberts 56.9% 0.9% 56.4% 9.2% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota St. 31.0% 0.9% 30.6% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 5.7% 1.6% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 1.9% 1.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 1.3% 0.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Thomas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 1.2% 0.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.6 0.4
1st Round 96.4% 1.0 3.6 96.1 0.3
2nd Round 12.7% 0.1 87.4 12.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.0% 0.0 97.0 3.0
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0