Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
123 St. Thomas 41.1%   14   17 - 6 9 - 2 +2.5      +2.4 108 +0.1 168 70.6 126 +2.8 116 +2.6 2
146 North Dakota St. 31.7%   17 - 6 10 - 1 +0.8      +1.7 123 -0.8 202 65.5 264 +2.8 117 +6.4 1
193 South Dakota St. 11.5%   8 - 14 4 - 6 -2.2      -0.9 187 -1.3 217 69.7 147 -6.3 266 -8.5 7
249 Nebraska Omaha 5.9%   8 - 14 5 - 6 -4.9      -1.5 207 -3.4 282 68.5 191 -6.2 263 -7.3 6
257 Denver 4.5%   9 - 14 5 - 6 -5.5      +3.0 97 -8.5 359 70.4 131 -4.8 238 -7.0 5
281 South Dakota 2.7%   11 - 13 6 - 6 -6.9      -2.5 238 -4.4 305 74.9 34 -5.7 256 -5.0 4
288 North Dakota 2.3%   12 - 13 9 - 3 -7.4      -1.6 211 -5.8 329 68.9 176 -4.4 234 +1.0 3
337 Oral Roberts 0.3%   2 - 20 0 - 10 -11.4      -6.3 328 -5.0 316 69.1 170 -13.6 348 -19.2 9
357 UMKC 0.0%   1 - 20 1 - 9 -14.9      -10.5 361 -4.4 304 71.7 98 -19.6 361 -17.0 8


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Feb 11 288 North Dakota 72 281 South Dakota 71   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Feb 12 257 Denver 81 193 South Dakota St. 82 51%   
Thu, Feb 12 249 Nebraska Omaha 75 123 St. Thomas 79 66%   
Thu, Feb 12 357 UMKC 69 337 Oral Roberts 75 73%   
Sat, Feb 14 288 North Dakota 73 146 North Dakota St. 78 70%   
Sat, Feb 14 337 Oral Roberts 71 193 South Dakota St. 78 72%   
Sat, Feb 14 357 UMKC 68 123 St. Thomas 82 90%   
Sun, Feb 15 257 Denver 80 249 Nebraska Omaha 83 64%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
St. Thomas 1.5 51.4 46.9 1.7 0.0 0.0
North Dakota St. 1.3 73.2 24.5 2.4
South Dakota St. 4.9 0.1 7.4 39.0 24.6 16.8 11.9 0.1
Nebraska Omaha 5.4 0.2 1.8 24.3 28.1 25.8 19.7 0.1
Denver 5.3 0.1 2.7 27.3 25.4 22.9 21.7 0.0
South Dakota 5.0 0.1 4.7 37.6 26.7 19.3 11.8
North Dakota 2.9 2.3 11.5 84.5 1.6 0.0
Oral Roberts 8.3 0.0 0.3 1.4 66.0 32.3
UMKC 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 51.6 48.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
St. Thomas 13 - 3 21 - 7 0.1 1.7 9.2 24.8 38.4 25.8
North Dakota St. 13 - 3 20 - 8 0.1 2.5 16.6 36.4 33.9 10.6
South Dakota St. 8 - 8 12 - 16 0.2 2.5 10.2 23.2 30.8 24.9 8.3
Nebraska Omaha 7 - 9 10 - 17 2.7 16.2 35.3 31.6 12.2 2.0
Denver 7 - 9 11 - 17 3.9 16.6 31.6 30.5 14.6 2.8
South Dakota 8 - 8 13 - 15 8.7 28.1 36.0 21.4 5.9
North Dakota 11 - 5 14 - 15 8.2 45.8 34.6 10.2 1.1
Oral Roberts 3 - 13 5 - 23 3.5 16.0 29.1 29.3 16.4 5.0 0.6
UMKC 2 - 14 2 - 25 25.1 39.7 25.5 8.0 1.5 0.2 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
St. Thomas 51.4% 25.6 25.0 0.8
North Dakota St. 73.2% 47.9 24.5 0.8
South Dakota St.
Nebraska Omaha
Denver
South Dakota
North Dakota 2.3% 0.4 1.2 0.8
Oral Roberts
UMKC


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
St. Thomas 41.1% 41.1% 0.0% 14   0.1 6.8 19.8 13.0 1.4 58.9 0.0%
North Dakota St. 31.7% 31.7% 0.0% 0.0 1.2 9.7 15.5 5.2 0.2 68.3 0.0%
South Dakota St. 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.1 1.0 2.4 8.1 88.5 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 5.6 94.1 0.0%
Denver 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.9 95.5 0.0%
South Dakota 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.3 2.4 97.3 0.0%
North Dakota 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.0 97.7 0.0%
Oral Roberts 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
UMKC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 92.6% 0.9 7.4 92.6
2nd Round 3.7% 0.0 96.3 3.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
St. Thomas 41.1% 0.0% 41.1% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 31.7% 0.0% 31.7% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota St. 11.5% 5.7% 9.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 5.9% 5.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 4.5% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 2.7% 1.8% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 2.3% 1.4% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%