Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
128 St. Thomas 36.2%   14   14 - 5 6 - 1 +1.9      +1.7 125 +0.2 157 70.1 145 +3.5 115 +5.5 2
137 North Dakota St. 35.5%   15 - 5 8 - 0 +1.5      +1.5 130 0.0 164 65.5 271 +3.5 113 +10.0 1
180 South Dakota St. 14.3%   7 - 12 3 - 4 -1.5      -0.1 164 -1.4 222 70.5 136 -5.1 243 -6.4 5
243 Nebraska Omaha 5.8%   7 - 12 4 - 4 -4.5      -2.0 224 -2.6 253 68.5 192 -6.2 267 -7.6 6
284 Denver 2.3%   7 - 13 3 - 5 -7.2      +2.1 116 -9.2 362 69.8 154 -6.0 260 -10.3 7
287 South Dakota 2.5%   8 - 11 3 - 4 -7.3      -1.4 203 -6.0 338 76.9 23 -6.0 261 -5.1 4
290 North Dakota 2.6%   9 - 12 6 - 2 -7.4      -1.9 221 -5.5 330 70.2 140 -5.9 254 -0.2 3
331 Oral Roberts 0.5%   2 - 17 0 - 7 -10.6      -5.7 323 -4.9 314 68.1 202 -12.8 342 -20.3 9
355 UMKC 0.1%   1 - 18 1 - 7 -14.0      -9.4 359 -4.5 305 71.1 119 -18.8 358 -16.0 8


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Jan 28 243 Nebraska Omaha 80 180 South Dakota St. 71   
Wed, Jan 28 284 Denver 69 355 UMKC 61   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Jan 29 290 North Dakota 72 128 St. Thomas 84 87%   
Thu, Jan 29 331 Oral Roberts 77 287 South Dakota 83 73%   
Sat, Jan 31 284 Denver 81 243 Nebraska Omaha 80 52%   
Sat, Jan 31 137 North Dakota St. 82 287 South Dakota 76 71%   
Sat, Jan 31 331 Oral Roberts 69 180 South Dakota St. 81 87%   
Sun, Feb 1 355 UMKC 65 128 St. Thomas 84 95%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
St. Thomas 1.6 44.8 51.8 2.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
North Dakota St. 1.3 74.2 24.7 1.0 0.1 0.0
South Dakota St. 3.7 0.5 6.5 48.2 24.8 12.0 6.0 1.8 0.2 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 4.9 0.1 1.5 14.9 23.1 28.4 20.8 10.7 0.6 0.0
Denver 6.1 0.0 0.1 3.8 8.2 16.0 26.1 39.8 5.7 0.2
South Dakota 5.2 0.0 0.6 13.2 17.2 22.5 28.0 15.5 2.9 0.2
North Dakota 3.8 0.8 4.9 40.4 31.4 15.6 6.0 1.0 0.0
Oral Roberts 8.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 4.0 12.9 49.7 32.0
UMKC 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 6.5 43.3 49.1

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
St. Thomas 13 - 3 21 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.0 9.5 20.8 29.5 25.8 10.5
North Dakota St. 14 - 2 21 - 7 0.1 0.6 3.6 11.2 23.9 30.9 22.8 7.0
South Dakota St. 9 - 7 13 - 15 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.6 8.8 17.2 25.0 24.9 15.4 4.2
Nebraska Omaha 8 - 8 11 - 16 0.7 4.7 15.0 23.8 26.2 18.7 8.4 2.1 0.3
Denver 6 - 10 10 - 18 2.2 10.3 20.7 26.7 22.1 12.2 4.7 1.1 0.1
South Dakota 7 - 9 12 - 16 0.6 3.6 10.0 18.5 23.7 21.8 13.9 6.0 1.7 0.2
North Dakota 9 - 7 12 - 17 1.6 9.5 22.9 30.0 22.4 10.2 2.9 0.5 0.0
Oral Roberts 3 - 13 5 - 23 2.2 10.1 21.0 26.8 21.9 12.2 4.6 1.2 0.2 0.0
UMKC 3 - 13 3 - 24 15.3 31.0 29.9 16.3 6.0 1.3 0.2 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
St. Thomas 44.8% 25.3 18.9 0.5 0.0
North Dakota St. 74.2% 54.7 19.0 0.5 0.0
South Dakota St. 0.5% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 0.1% 0.0 0.0
Denver 0.0% 0.0
South Dakota 0.0% 0.0 0.0
North Dakota 0.8% 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0
Oral Roberts
UMKC


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
St. Thomas 36.2% 36.2% 0.0% 14   0.2 3.9 13.7 14.7 3.7 0.1 63.8 0.0%
North Dakota St. 35.5% 35.5% 0.0% 0.1 2.6 12.9 15.7 4.1 0.1 64.5 0.0%
South Dakota St. 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 1.9 5.8 6.0 85.7 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.9 94.2 0.0%
Denver 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 2.2 97.7 0.0%
South Dakota 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.2 97.5 0.0%
North Dakota 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.3 97.4 0.0%
Oral Roberts 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5 99.5 0.0%
UMKC 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 94.7% 0.9 5.3 94.7
2nd Round 3.9% 0.0 96.1 3.9
Sweet Sixteen 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
St. Thomas 36.2% 0.0% 36.2% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 35.5% 0.0% 35.5% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota St. 14.3% 2.9% 13.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 5.8% 3.9% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 2.3% 1.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 2.5% 1.5% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 2.6% 1.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%