Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
120 South Dakota St. 34.4%   14   5 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 4 +2.5      +1.4 138 +1.2 134 73.2 69 +2.8 127 0.0 1
133 St. Thomas 27.7%   4 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 5 +1.5      +2.0 117 -0.6 187 68.9 183 +0.5 166 0.0 1
187 North Dakota St. 15.0%   4 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 6 -1.3      +4.0 75 -5.3 330 61.5 347 +0.1 173 0.0 1
224 South Dakota 8.6%   3 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 13 8 - 8 -3.5      +3.2 90 -6.7 351 74.9 49 -0.4 176 0.0 1
261 Oral Roberts 4.6%   1 - 5 0 - 0 9 - 16 7 - 9 -5.6      +0.3 167 -5.9 343 68.7 189 -9.8 319 0.0 1
289 North Dakota 3.2%   2 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 17 7 - 9 -6.6      -2.1 224 -4.6 317 67.9 215 -5.5 257 0.0 1
292 UMKC 3.0%   0 - 6 0 - 0 8 - 19 6 - 10 -6.8      -5.4 321 -1.4 215 66.5 251 -17.4 359 0.0 1
306 Nebraska Omaha 2.2%   2 - 7 0 - 0 9 - 20 6 - 10 -7.4      -3.0 252 -4.5 314 67.9 212 -8.4 302 0.0 1
321 Denver 1.3%   2 - 6 0 - 0 8 - 20 5 - 11 -9.0      -3.8 278 -5.2 327 71.8 100 -8.2 293 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
South Dakota St. 2.0 48.1 25.2 13.1 6.8 3.5 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.1
St. Thomas 2.4 37.9 26.8 16.0 8.9 5.2 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.2
North Dakota St. 3.4 17.0 21.0 20.3 15.9 10.7 7.0 4.2 2.6 1.1
South Dakota 4.4 8.5 13.5 16.4 17.4 14.4 11.5 8.8 6.1 3.3
Oral Roberts 5.4 3.8 7.4 11.5 14.1 15.2 14.5 13.6 11.3 8.7
North Dakota 5.8 2.3 5.0 8.9 11.8 14.5 15.9 15.6 14.4 11.6
UMKC 5.9 2.3 4.8 8.4 11.4 14.1 15.4 16.0 14.5 13.2
Nebraska Omaha 6.2 1.4 3.4 6.5 10.0 13.4 15.7 17.0 17.2 15.5
Denver 6.8 0.6 1.9 4.3 7.2 10.1 13.7 16.9 20.7 24.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
South Dakota St. 12 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.3 4.6 7.7 11.6 15.4 17.6 16.7 13.1 7.0 2.2
St. Thomas 11 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.7 6.7 9.6 13.2 16.5 17.1 14.6 9.6 4.6 1.3
North Dakota St. 10 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 3.1 5.9 8.7 12.3 14.6 15.8 14.1 11.1 7.2 3.6 1.2 0.2
South Dakota 8 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 4.0 7.0 10.5 12.6 14.8 14.5 12.6 9.6 6.2 3.5 1.3 0.4 0.1
Oral Roberts 7 - 9 0.2 0.8 2.4 5.1 8.2 11.7 13.7 14.5 13.8 11.1 8.5 5.3 2.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
North Dakota 7 - 9 0.2 1.2 3.5 6.6 10.8 13.5 15.4 14.4 12.7 9.2 6.4 3.5 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
UMKC 6 - 10 0.3 1.4 3.8 7.6 11.3 13.7 14.9 14.3 12.2 8.8 5.8 3.4 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 6 - 10 0.3 1.9 4.7 8.9 12.8 15.3 15.6 14.2 11.0 7.3 4.4 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Denver 5 - 11 1.0 3.6 8.1 12.4 15.4 16.3 14.7 11.4 7.7 5.0 2.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
South Dakota St. 48.1% 35.4 10.5 2.0 0.3 0.0
St. Thomas 37.9% 26.3 9.4 1.9 0.3 0.0
North Dakota St. 17.0% 10.2 5.3 1.4 0.2 0.0
South Dakota 8.5% 4.6 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0
Oral Roberts 3.8% 1.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
North Dakota 2.3% 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
UMKC 2.3% 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 1.4% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Denver 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
South Dakota St. 34.4% 34.4% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 6.2 12.4 9.6 4.8 0.9 65.6 0.0%
St. Thomas 27.7% 27.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.8 7.4 8.9 6.5 1.8 72.3 0.0%
North Dakota St. 15.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 2.8 4.5 4.9 2.2 85.0 0.0%
South Dakota 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.3 2.8 91.4 0.0%
Oral Roberts 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 3.2 95.4 0.0%
North Dakota 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.1 96.8 0.0%
UMKC 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.6 97.0 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 97.8 0.0%
Denver 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.2 98.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
South Dakota St. 34.4% 0.2% 34.3% 3.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Thomas 27.7% 0.6% 27.4% 2.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 15.0% 0.9% 14.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 8.6% 1.3% 8.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 4.6% 2.5% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 3.2% 1.6% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 3.0% 2.3% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 2.2% 1.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 1.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 94.7% 0.9 5.3 94.7
2nd Round 7.4% 0.1 92.6 7.4
Sweet Sixteen 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0