North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -8.4 303
Results Rating -5.1 245
Consistency 0.16 203
Pace 69.2 157
Improvement +2.8 81

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 210 D C- B- C+ B
Defense D- 346 F+ F+ B+ D- F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 88 D- 51% 328 -0.8 211
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 280 D 34% 318 -3.0 316
Three Pointers 43% 135 D+ 31% 289 -0.5 201
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.0 61 D- -5.0 340
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 306
Second Chance D+ 27.7% 256 C+ 1.05 141 C- 0.29 223
Opponents' Steals B 8.2% 68
Other Turnovers C+ 6.9% 132
Turnovers B- 15.1% 82
Freethrows B- 0.33 105 D+ 70% 259 C+ 0.23 141
Total Offense C- -1.6 210

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots F 28% 361 D+ 12.3% 262
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 20% 242 C- 5.6% 236
Three Pointers C 83% 205 B 0.3% 42
Total D- 46% 343 C- 6.1% 243


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 67 D 64% 322 +5.0 338
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 358 C- 39% 231 -2.7 11
Three Pointers 44% 89 D- 38% 340 +4.1 337
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ +1.3 358 D- +4.9 345
1st FG Attempt F+ 1.15 350
Second Chance D- 34.4% 325 D- 1.15 329 F+ 0.40 346
Turnovers from Steals B 11.2% 54
Other Turnovers B 8.3% 58
Turnovers B+ 19.5% 35
Freethrows F+ 0.37 346 C 72% 188 D- 0.27 343
Total Defense D- -6.8 346

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F 61% 356 D 6.7% 336
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 176 C+ 5.9% 105
Three Pointers D 89% 320 C 0.8% 171
Total F+ 66% 354 D 4.0% 309

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.7 225 16.5 41
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 297 0.16 155
Consistency 0.14 320 0.12 155
Improvement +5.3 7 -2.5 308

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 310 302 288
Results Rating Rank 261 256 228
Conference Record 10 - 6 10 - 6 10 - 6
Conference Finish 3 3 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 4% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 1% 4% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four1% 3% 0%
First Round1% 2% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 32 - 53 - 10
Quad 411 - 713 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 15 @Alabama L 62 - 91 1% -17  0% 0 - 1 D+ -7 F -11 B- F C+ B +5 D+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 6 275 UC Riverside L 70 - 74 54% -5  11% 0 - 2 D- -13 F+ -9 C+ F C+ D+ -4 F B A+
 Sun, Nov 9 168 Cal St. Northridge L 85 - 93 32% -4  25% 0 - 3 D- -12 C+ +2 C B- A+ F -13 F F A-
 Sat, Nov 15 275 @UC Riverside W 76 - 74 31% +0  54% 1 - 3 C -1 D+ -4 C F C B- +2 F C A+
 Wed, Nov 19 72 @Creighton L 60 - 75 5% -9  9% 1 - 4 C- -4 D- -7 D D B+ C+ +1 A+ F B
 Sat, Nov 22 228 Coastal Carolina L 58 - 75 33% -10  20% 1 - 5 F -21 F -20 F C- D+ C -0 F B+ D
 Sun, Nov 23 364 @Western Illinois W 78 - 69 77% -1  47% 2 - 5 D+ -7 D- -7 D+ F F+ C -0 F F+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 118 @Hawaii L 55 - 92 10% -14  15% 2 - 6 F -31 F -20 F D F D- -8 F C- B+
 Wed, Dec 3 181 @Idaho L 58 - 90 17% -15  12% 2 - 7 F -30 F -16 C- F F F -14 F F A-
 Sat, Dec 6 205 Montana L 75 - 79 39% +1  48% 2 - 8 D -9 C- -1 F+ A+ C+ F+ -9 D- F A
 Sat, Dec 13 364 Western Illinois L 66 - 69 OT 89% -1  38% 2 - 9 F -25 F -21 F C+ F D+ -4 A+ F A
 Thu, Dec 18 145 Winthrop W 90 - 88 27% -2  32% 3 - 9 C +0 A +14 C- A+ A+ F -14 F F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 16 @Nebraska L 55 - 78 1% -3  47% 3 - 10 C -2 D -5 C+ F B B- +2 B A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 318 Oral Roberts W 72 - 61 66% +10  98% 4 - 10 1 - 0 C- -2 F+ -8 D- C- F B+ +7 A D+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 213 South Dakota St. W 90 - 87 OT 41% +1  60% 5 - 10 2 - 0 C- -3 A +11 B- A+ C+ F -14 F+ F B
 Thu, Jan 8 253 @Nebraska Omaha L 79 - 90 28% -7  1% 5 - 11 2 - 1 D- -13 C+ +3 D C A- F -17 F D B
 Sat, Jan 10 360 @UMKC W 81 - 79 73% -2  28% 6 - 11 3 - 1 D- -13 B +7 D+ C- A+ F -20 F C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 112 St. Thomas L 80 - 91 20% -5  9% 6 - 12 3 - 2 D -11 C +1 C- A F+ F -11 F D A+
 Sat, Jan 17 284 South Dakota W 96 - 80 55% +11  94% 7 - 12 4 - 2 B- +6 A+ +16 C+ A+ A+ F -10 F A- B-
 Thu, Jan 22 318 @Oral Roberts W 79 - 62 43% +8  84% 8 - 12 5 - 2 B +10 B +6 D B A+ B+ +5 B+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 245 @Denver W 93 - 86 26% +0  49% 9 - 12 6 - 2 B- +5 B +7 B- D+ C+ C- -2 F A- A-
 Thu, Jan 29 112 @St. Thomas W 81 - 80 9% -2  29% 10 - 12 7 - 2 B- +7 B+ +9 B+ C- A+ C- -2 B- D C
 Thu, Feb 5 253 Nebraska Omaha W 76 - 73 49% -5  7% 11 - 12 8 - 2 D+ -5 D+ -3 F D- A+ C- -2 A- F C+
 Sat, Feb 7 245 Denver L 79 - 98 47% -12  0% 11 - 13 8 - 3 F -27 D+ -3 F D A+ F -24 F F D
 Wed, Feb 11 284 @South Dakota W 72 - 71 33% -1  36% 12 - 13 9 - 3 C- -3 C- -2 F B- A- C -1 C D- C+
 Sat, Feb 14 131 North Dakota St. L 66 - 83 24% -4  35% 12 - 14 9 - 4 F -18 D -5 D D+ C F -14 F F A+
 Thu, Feb 19 360 UMKC W 85 - 70 88% +7  84% 13 - 14 10 - 4 D+ -6 D -5 F A- F C- -2 B- D+ C-
 Sat, Feb 21 213 @South Dakota St. L 83 - 91 21% +3  78% 13 - 15 10 - 5 D+ -8 A +12 A+ F A F -21 F+ F F+
 Sat, Feb 28 131 @North Dakota St. L 63 - 96 11% -11  35% 13 - 16 10 - 6 F -28 F -14 F C+ A F -13 F B- B+
 Fri, Mar 6 245 Denver L 82 - 86 36%
Totals 13 - 17 10 - 6 -8 C- -2 F D- B D- -7 D+ D+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D- D D+ D- 42% 29% 43% B D D+ C+ C- B- B- D+ C+ D- D C- D- D- 43% 13% 44% F+ F+ D- D- F+ B+ F+ C D-
1.06 51% 34% 31% -5 +1 0.94 28% 1.1 .29 15% .33 70% .23 1.18 64% 39% 38% +5 +1 1.15 34% 1.2 .40 20% .37 72% .24
Nov
3		 Alabama F C+ C F+ C+ 44% 25% 32% B B- F F F C+ C+ F D B F F B+ D+ 44% 6% 50% D- D+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F C F
0.84 56% 36% 28% -4 0 0.93 17% 0.1 .02 14% .27 53% .14 1.23 78% 67% 31% +8 +2 1.23 37% 0.7 .27 20% .46 78% .36
Nov
6		 UC Riverside F+ C A+ D C 44% 16% 40% B- C+ D- F F C+ B+ F D- D+ F+ F A- F 59% 7% 34% F F A+ F+ B A+ F F F
0.99 59% 63% 30% +2 +1 1.08 24% 0.6 .15 14% .40 50% .20 1.05 67% 67% 29% +4 +3 1.17 17% 1.0 .17 27% .52 81% .43
Nov
9		 Cal St. Northridge C+ A+ F F C 34% 17% 48% C+ C D A+ B- A+ B F C F F A+ F F 47% 20% 33% B- F F C F A- F B F
1.12 80% 30% 25% 0 0 1.02 23% 1.6 .36 11% .34 65% .22 1.23 71% 20% 47% +9 +1 1.22 42% 1.0 .42 21% .52 61% .32
Nov
15		 UC Riverside D+ C F B+ C- 49% 10% 41% A- C D- F F C F F F B- D F D F 40% 6% 53% F F C C- C A+ F A+ D+
1.02 59% 17% 38% 0 +2 1.07 24% 0.7 .17 15% .22 50% .11 1.00 63% 67% 36% +5 +2 1.17 27% 0.9 .23 28% .39 62% .24
Nov
19		 Creighton D- D F C- F+ 47% 20% 33% A- D D+ F+ D B+ C- B- C C+ F A+ A+ A+ 27% 9% 64% D+ A+ F F F B F A+ F
0.93 50% 18% 33% -8 +1 0.87 24% 0.9 .21 12% .19 73% .14 1.16 92% 0% 17% -11 +1 0.82 50% 1.3 .64 17% .47 60% .28
Nov
22		 Coastal Carolina F F F F F 23% 33% 44% D F C+ D- C- D+ A+ F A+ C C- F D- F 39% 17% 44% F F A+ F B+ D D+ A+ B
0.78 36% 25% 14% -22 -3 0.52 29% 0.9 .25 13% .53 65% .34 1.01 57% 56% 38% +5 +1 1.13 15% 1.2 .18 13% .28 56% .16
Nov
23		 Western Illinois D- D+ D+ A+ C- 42% 27% 31% D- D+ F A+ F F+ B- A+ A- C A A F F 37% 17% 46% F F C F F+ A+ F A+ C
1.07 59% 36% 44% +4 -1 1.10 12% 2.0 .23 18% .33 85% .28 0.94 41% 25% 48% +1 0 1.04 24% 1.4 .32 23% .37 52% .20
Nov
28		 Hawaii F F F F F 50% 8% 42% A F F A+ D F A+ F A- D- F B- A+ F 60% 6% 34% F F D C+ C- B+ F B+ F
0.71 38% 25% 20% -20 +2 0.67 16% 1.3 .22 21% .46 61% .28 1.19 80% 33% 24% +8 +3 1.24 33% 1.0 .33 22% .51 68% .35
Dec
3		 Idaho F B- D- D+ D+ 34% 19% 47% B- C- F+ F F F B- F F+ F F A+ F F 30% 7% 63% D F F F F A- F F F
0.84 63% 33% 32% -1 0 1.00 19% 0.0 .00 24% .38 55% .21 1.30 69% 0% 48% +14 +1 1.33 39% 1.2 .48 20% .43 92% .40
Dec
6		 Montana C- B- F+ F F+ 42% 25% 33% C F+ A A- A+ C+ C+ A B F+ B- C- F D- 40% 11% 49% D- D- F F F A F A+ F
1.09 64% 31% 18% -8 0 0.87 40% 1.2 .48 14% .31 78% .24 1.15 56% 40% 45% +8 +1 1.20 33% 1.4 .48 25% .46 63% .29
Dec
13		 Western Illinois F F F F 48% 0% 52% A F D+ A- C+ F A+ C A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 54% 18% 28% F A+ F D F A F F F
0.91 50% 17% -17 +3 0.74 32% 1.3 .42 23% .45 72% .33 0.95 33% 22% 14% -25 +1 0.56 48% 1.1 .52 22% .44 80% .35
Dec
18		 Winthrop A F A- A D 41% 4% 55% A C- A- A+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ F C+ F F F 43% 8% 50% D F A F F C+ F A- F
1.30 38% 50% 39% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.4 .53 10% .51 72% .37 1.27 53% 67% 45% +8 +2 1.23 26% 1.9 .48 16% .74 67% .50
Dec
21		 Nebraska D F F B+ C 25% 23% 53% B- C+ F+ F F B D A D+ B- F A A+ B+ 44% 15% 41% C- B D A+ A+ F D F F+
0.83 46% 25% 36% -5 -1 0.91 16% 0.0 .00 18% .16 78% .13 1.17 75% 25% 27% +1 +1 1.07 31% 0.5 .17 9% .31 84% .26
Jan
1		 Oral Roberts F+ F F A+ F+ 51% 16% 33% C+ D- B- F C- F A+ D+ A+ B+ A- F A+ A+ 41% 14% 45% D+ A B+ F D+ C- D+ A+ C+
1.04 41% 29% 43% -6 +1 0.93 36% 0.9 .33 20% .62 68% .42 0.88 45% 57% 18% -13 +1 0.78 23% 1.3 .30 17% .33 63% .21
Jan
3		 South Dakota St. A B+ B- C+ B- 28% 13% 58% C B- A+ C- A+ C+ C A+ B+ F C+ A+ F F+ 46% 10% 44% F F+ F F F B F F F
1.29 67% 43% 35% +4 0 1.11 47% 1.1 .50 14% .30 89% .27 1.25 57% 20% 45% +5 +2 1.16 38% 1.2 .47 19% .41 78% .32
Jan
8		 Nebraska Omaha C+ D- D- C D- 34% 12% 54% C+ D C+ C- C A- A+ D A+ F F F F F 46% 12% 41% F F F+ C+ D B F F F
1.15 53% 33% 33% -3 +1 0.98 31% 1.0 .31 10% .49 70% .34 1.32 68% 60% 47% +16 +2 1.37 32% 1.0 .32 19% .63 80% .51
Jan
10		 UMKC B F B+ A- D+ 43% 20% 37% C- D+ D+ C+ C- A+ A+ F B+ F B F F F 19% 40% 40% A+ F F A+ C+ A+ D F F
1.24 48% 45% 40% 0 0 1.04 33% 1.1 .36 8% .40 58% .23 1.21 50% 59% 65% +25 -4 1.45 39% 0.6 .22 27% .29 93% .27
Jan
15		 St. Thomas C F+ A+ C D+ 56% 8% 36% A C- C+ A+ A F+ A+ C+ A+ F D A+ F F 38% 5% 57% D+ F A F D A+ F A+ F
1.10 50% 50% 33% -4 +3 1.00 30% 1.6 .48 21% .52 77% .40 1.25 69% 0% 67% +30 +2 1.67 13% 2.0 .25 21% .59 56% .33
Jan
17		 South Dakota A+ B D C- C+ 52% 18% 30% C C+ B A+ A+ A+ F F F F D A+ F F 44% 10% 46% F+ F B A+ A- B- D- F F
1.37 66% 36% 33% +3 +1 1.11 38% 1.8 .71 9% .11 57% .06 1.15 62% 20% 45% +8 +2 1.21 23% 0.7 .17 19% .42 83% .35
Jan
22		 Oral Roberts B F F+ A+ D- 63% 12% 25% A- D C- A+ B A+ D+ A+ B+ B+ C A+ A+ A+ 55% 3% 43% F B+ F F F A+ F B- F
1.20 39% 33% 54% -5 +3 0.98 30% 1.4 .42 9% .30 89% .27 0.94 55% 0% 18% -13 +4 0.83 39% 1.2 .45 27% .57 70% .40
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Denver B C F A+ B 38% 17% 44% C- B- C D- D+ C+ A+ C- A+ C- A- F F F 33% 20% 47% F+ F A- B+ A- A- F A+ F
1.27 60% 22% 48% +7 0 1.17 34% 1.0 .34 12% .50 69% .34 1.18 47% 60% 46% +9 0 1.20 24% 1.0 .24 18% .45 67% .30
Jan
29		 St. Thomas B+ C A+ C B 45% 11% 44% B B+ D+ B- C- A+ D+ F D C- C F A- B 55% 10% 35% D- B- F B D C F D- F
1.18 60% 67% 33% +4 +2 1.13 26% 1.2 .32 12% .25 67% .17 1.17 63% 60% 29% +3 +3 1.12 29% 0.9 .26 15% .39 74% .29
Feb
5		 Nebraska Omaha D+ A F F F 37% 15% 48% C+ F C+ F D- A+ A+ F A+ C- F A+ A A- 28% 24% 48% B+ A- F F F C+ F A D
1.11 74% 25% 20% -6 +1 0.90 30% 0.7 .21 4% .58 66% .38 1.07 77% 9% 27% -6 -1 0.87 35% 1.3 .45 18% .39 64% .25
Feb
7		 Denver D+ C+ F F F 63% 4% 33% A+ F F A D A+ A+ A+ A+ F F F C- F 35% 23% 42% D F F D- F D F D- F
1.18 62% 0% 11% -11 +4 0.89 24% 1.3 .32 4% .44 86% .37 1.46 83% 58% 36% +15 -1 1.31 43% 1.3 .54 12% .39 83% .32
Feb
11		 South Dakota C- F A+ F F 71% 8% 21% A+ F B- C B- A- C- F+ D+ C F B- A+ B 54% 6% 40% F C F+ C- D- C+ A- C- B+
1.08 43% 75% 27% -10 +4 0.90 36% 1.2 .42 12% .27 69% .19 1.06 74% 33% 10% -6 +3 0.96 32% 1.0 .32 18% .31 76% .24
Feb
14		 North Dakota St. D F A C F+ 44% 8% 48% A D D C- D+ C A+ D- A F D- A+ D- D- 49% 2% 49% F F F F F A+ F D- F
1.02 48% 50% 35% -3 +2 1.00 25% 0.9 .22 19% .38 70% .27 1.28 67% 0% 38% +6 +3 1.21 44% 1.6 .70 23% .34 76% .26
Feb
19		 UMKC D F F C F 47% 6% 47% A- F D A+ A- F A+ A+ A+ C- A- A+ B A- 48% 14% 38% F B- B- F D+ C- C- F D
1.10 39% 0% 35% -11 +2 0.86 33% 1.5 .50 21% .52 81% .43 0.91 44% 25% 29% -12 +2 0.82 24% 1.1 .26 18% .27 76% .21
Feb
21		 South Dakota St. A A+ A A+ A+ 35% 11% 54% B A+ F+ F F A F F F F B- A+ F F+ 35% 12% 53% D F+ F F F F+ F F F
1.26 74% 50% 41% +13 +1 1.30 19% 0.8 .16 11% .20 67% .14 1.38 53% 17% 46% +5 +1 1.14 42% 1.3 .55 12% .43 84% .36
Feb
28		 North Dakota St. F F A+ F F 33% 7% 59% B+ F D- A+ C+ A A+ B A+ F F F F F 35% 12% 54% F F A- F+ B- B+ F+ F F
0.86 39% 75% 19% -17 +1 0.70 23% 1.2 .28 14% .36 78% .28 1.31 72% 50% 54% +22 +1 1.48 25% 1.2 .29 19% .34 80% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 100.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 100.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4 98.6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 16.0 98.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 16.0 1.4 98.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 29.7%
Lose Out 64.4%