North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.2 #317
Expected Predictive Rating -8.0 #288
Pace 71.3 #123
Improvement +4.0 #20

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #310 D C D C B
Defense #303 D F F B+ F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #126 1.06 #285 -0.8 #207
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #294 0.58 #348 -3.6 #338
Three Pointers 45% #119 0.91 #287 -0.5 #199
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #306 -4.8 #310
Freethrows 18.1 #147 69% #284 12.5 #188
Second Chance 27.7% #264 0.95 #278 0.26 #289
Turnovers 16.9% #196
Total Offense -5.2 #310

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #63 1.26 #285 -4.9 #327
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #351 0.80 #247 +2.6 #24
Three Pointers 43% #118 1.02 #199 -1.3 #232
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #293 -3.6 #290
Freethrows 21.2 #333 72% #172 15.3 #324
Second Chance 34.3% #304 1.17 #309 0.40 #333
Turnovers 19.3% #53
Total Defense -4.0 #303

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #75 2.6% #356
Shot Type Make % Effect -10.6% #331 4.9% #270
Possession Length 18.0 #249 16.4 #56
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #312 0.17 #166
Improvement +3.9 #11 +0.1 #183

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 2.5% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.9% 4.9% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 34.4% 56.1% 26.4%
Conference Champion 1.1% 2.4% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 15.6% 5.3% 19.3%
First Four1.5% 2.2% 1.3%
First Round0.9% 1.3% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Away) - 26.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 49 - 1010 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 12 @Alabama L 62-91 1%     -16.7   0 - 1 -7.4 -7.7 +1.9
  Thu, Nov 6 298 UC Riverside L 70-74 56%     -4.6   0 - 2 -14.7 -9.7 -5.0
  Sun, Nov 9 203 Cal St. Northridge L 85-93 37%     -3.6   0 - 3 -13.7 +2.5 -15.6
  Sat, Nov 15 298 @UC Riverside W 76-74 33%     0.4   1 - 3 -2.7 -4.5 +1.7
  Wed, Nov 19 39 @Creighton L 60-75 2%     -8.8   1 - 4 +1.0 -0.7 +0.4
  Sat, Nov 22 267 Coastal Carolina L 58-75 38%     -9.6   1 - 5 -23.0 -18.9 -3.2
  Sun, Nov 23 357 @Western Illinois W 78-69 57%     -1.3   2 - 5 -2.0 -1.9 -0.5
  Fri, Nov 28 96 @Hawaii L 55-92 6%     -13.8   2 - 6 -28.6 -15.1 -9.9
  Wed, Dec 3 183 @Idaho L 58-90 16%     -14.5   2 - 7 -30.4 -14.9 -15.7
  Sat, Dec 6 192 Montana L 75-79 34%     0.5   2 - 8 -9.0 +0.0 -9.0
  Sat, Dec 13 357 Western Illinois L 66-69 OT 77%     -0.7   2 - 9 -20.0 -15.6 -4.2
  Thu, Dec 18 151 Winthrop W 90-88 27%     -2.1   3 - 9 -0.8 +13.3 -14.1
  Sun, Dec 21 25 @Nebraska L 55-78 1%     -2.9   3 - 10 -4.9 -5.7 -0.3
  Thu, Jan 1 297 Oral Roberts W 72-61 56%     10.4   4 - 10 1 - 0 +0.3 -4.7 +5.2
  Sat, Jan 3 168 South Dakota St. W 90-87 OT 30%     1.2   5 - 10 2 - 0 -0.9 +14.4 -15.3
  Thu, Jan 8 257 @Nebraska Omaha L 72-79 27%    
  Sat, Jan 10 333 @UMKC L 71-73 44%    
  Thu, Jan 15 133 St. Thomas L 71-79 23%    
  Sat, Jan 17 293 South Dakota W 82-81 54%    
  Thu, Jan 22 297 @Oral Roberts L 71-76 34%    
  Sat, Jan 24 276 @Denver L 77-83 30%    
  Thu, Jan 29 133 @St. Thomas L 68-82 10%    
  Thu, Feb 5 257 Nebraska Omaha L 75-76 48%    
  Sat, Feb 7 276 Denver W 81-80 51%    
  Wed, Feb 11 293 @South Dakota L 79-84 33%    
  Sat, Feb 14 152 North Dakota St. L 70-76 27%    
  Thu, Feb 19 333 UMKC W 74-70 65%    
  Sat, Feb 21 168 @South Dakota St. L 71-82 16%    
  Sat, Feb 28 152 @North Dakota St. L 67-79 12%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.0 4.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 4.0 2.8 0.7 0.1 9.0 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 6.9 4.9 0.8 0.1 15.2 4th
5th 0.0 2.6 8.7 6.0 0.9 0.0 18.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.6 8.1 6.4 0.8 0.0 16.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 6.5 6.8 1.1 0.0 15.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.9 5.5 1.2 0.0 12.4 8th
9th 0.7 2.8 3.2 0.8 0.0 7.5 9th
Total 0.7 3.6 9.2 14.5 18.8 18.8 15.1 10.3 5.4 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
13-3 82.4% 0.1    0.1 0.1
12-4 40.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.0
11-5 15.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.1% 0.0 0.1
13-3 0.2% 11.8% 11.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-4 0.9% 7.4% 7.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.9
11-5 2.4% 4.9% 4.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.3
10-6 5.4% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.2 5.1
9-7 10.3% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.4 10.0
8-8 15.1% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 14.8
7-9 18.8% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.3 18.5
6-10 18.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 18.6
5-11 14.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.4
4-12 9.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.2
3-13 3.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.6
2-14 0.7% 0.7
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.7 98.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%