North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -7.4 289
Expected Predictive Rating -4.4 236
Pace 69.0 174
Improvement +5.5 16

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 216 D C- B- C B-
Defense D 329 D- D- B+ D- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 94 D 52% 319 -0.7 202
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 281 D 33% 321 -2.6 303
Three Pointers 42% 155 D+ 31% 280 -0.9 212
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 70 D- -4.7 328
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 304
Second Chance C- 28.2% 245 C 1.02 173 C- 0.29 229
Turnovers B- 15.2% 73
Freethrows C+ 0.33 122 D+ 69% 274 C 0.23 155
Total Offense C- -1.7 216

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 70 D 64% 326 -5.0 334
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 351 D+ 40% 258 +2.2 28
Three Pointers 43% 108 D 37% 318 -3.1 309
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.1 352 D- +4.5 334
1st FG Attempt D- 1.14 346
Second Chance D 34.7% 323 D 1.12 309 D- 0.39 334
Turnovers B+ 20.0% 33
Freethrows F+ 0.38 348 C+ 71% 113 D- 0.27 337
Total Defense D -5.8 329

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.8 234 16.6 54
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 280 0.17 188
Improvement +6.7 #1 -1.2 #264

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 4% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 17% 39% 7%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 4% 13% 1%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 2% 1%
First Round2% 3% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Home) - 30.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 32 - 63 - 10
Quad 411 - 614 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 17 @Alabama L 62 - 91 1% -17  0% 0 - 1 D+ -8 F -10 C+ F C+ B +4 D A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 6 296 UC Riverside L 70 - 74 63% -5  11% 0 - 2 F+ -15 F -11 C F B- D+ -4 F B A+
 Sun, Nov 9 184 Cal St. Northridge L 85 - 93 39% -4  25% 0 - 3 D- -13 C +0 C C+ A F -12 F F B+
 Sat, Nov 15 296 @UC Riverside W 76 - 74 40% +0  54% 1 - 3 C- -3 D -5 C- F C+ B- +3 F C A+
 Wed, Nov 19 62 @Creighton L 60 - 75 5% -9  9% 1 - 4 C- -3 D- -7 D D- A- C+ +2 A+ F B
 Sat, Nov 22 236 Coastal Carolina L 58 - 75 37% -10  20% 1 - 5 F -21 F -21 F D+ C- C+ +1 F B D
 Sun, Nov 23 362 @Western Illinois W 78 - 69 75% -1  47% 2 - 5 D+ -5 D- -6 C- F F+ C+ +1 F F+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 101 @Hawaii L 55 - 92 8% -14  15% 2 - 6 F -29 F -18 F D F D -7 F C B+
 Wed, Dec 3 202 @Idaho L 58 - 90 23% -15  12% 2 - 7 F -32 F -17 C- F F F -15 F F A-
 Sat, Dec 6 172 Montana L 75 - 79 35% +1  48% 2 - 8 D+ -8 C +0 D- A+ B- D- -8 D- F A-
 Sat, Dec 13 362 Western Illinois L 66 - 69 OT 88% -1  38% 2 - 9 F -23 F -20 F B- F C- -3 A+ F A
 Thu, Dec 18 132 Winthrop W 90 - 88 27% -2  32% 3 - 9 C +1 A +13 C- A+ A+ F -13 F F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 15 @Nebraska L 55 - 78 1% -3  47% 3 - 10 C -1 D- -6 C F B B- +3 B+ A F+
 Thu, Jan 1 333 Oral Roberts W 72 - 61 74% +10  98% 4 - 10 1 - 0 C- -3 F+ -9 D- D+ F B +6 A- D C-
 Sat, Jan 3 214 South Dakota St. W 90 - 87 OT 44% +1  60% 5 - 10 2 - 0 C- -3 A +12 B- A+ B- F -15 F+ F B
 Thu, Jan 8 242 @Nebraska Omaha L 79 - 90 28% -7  1% 5 - 11 2 - 1 D- -13 C+ +3 D C A- F -16 F D+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 357 @UMKC W 81 - 79 67% -2  28% 6 - 11 3 - 1 D -10 B+ +9 D+ C A+ F -18 F C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 126 St. Thomas L 80 - 91 27% -5  9% 6 - 12 3 - 2 D- -12 C- -1 C- A D- F+ -11 F D A
 Sat, Jan 17 278 South Dakota W 96 - 80 59% +11  94% 7 - 12 4 - 2 B- +6 A+ +15 C A+ A+ D- -9 F A C+
 Thu, Jan 22 333 @Oral Roberts W 79 - 62 53% +8  84% 8 - 12 5 - 2 B +9 B +6 D+ B- A+ B +4 B+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 245 @Denver W 93 - 86 29% +0  49% 9 - 12 6 - 2 B- +5 B+ +7 B- D+ C+ C- -2 F A- B+
 Thu, Jan 29 126 @St. Thomas W 81 - 80 12% -2  29% 10 - 12 7 - 2 B- +6 B+ +8 B C- A+ C- -2 C+ D- C
 Thu, Feb 5 242 Nebraska Omaha W 76 - 73 50% -5  7% 11 - 12 8 - 2 C- -5 D+ -3 F D- A+ C -2 A- F C+
 Sat, Feb 7 245 Denver L 79 - 98 51% -12  0% 11 - 13 8 - 3 F -27 D+ -2 F D A+ F -25 F F D
 Wed, Feb 11 278 @South Dakota W 72 - 71 36% -1  36% 12 - 13 9 - 3 C- -3 D+ -3 F C+ A C -0 C D+ C+
 Sat, Feb 14 145 North Dakota St. L 73 - 78 30%
 Thu, Feb 19 357 UMKC W 80 - 69 84%
 Sat, Feb 21 214 @South Dakota St. L 73 - 80 24%
 Sat, Feb 28 145 @North Dakota St. L 70 - 81 14%
Totals 14 - 15 11 - 5 -7 F -2 C- D- B- D- -6 D+ D+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D D D+ D- 42% 16% 42% B- D C- C C- B- C+ D+ C D D D+ D D- 43% 14% 43% D- D- D D D- B+ F+ C+ D-
1.06 52% 33% 31% -5 +1 0.94 28% 1.0 .29 15% .33 69% .23 1.17 64% 40% 37% +5 +1 1.14 35% 1.1 .39 20% .38 71% .23
Nov
3		 Alabama F C+ C F+ C+ 44% 25% 32% B C+ F F F C+ C- F D- B F F B D+ 44% 6% 50% D- D D+ A+ A+ A+ F C- F
0.84 56% 36% 28% -4 0 0.93 17% 0.1 .02 14% .27 53% .14 1.23 78% 67% 31% +8 +2 1.23 37% 0.7 .27 20% .46 78% .36
Nov
6		 UC Riverside F C A+ D- C- 44% 16% 40% C+ C D- F F B- A- F D D+ F+ F A- F+ 59% 7% 34% F F A+ D- B A+ F F F
0.99 59% 63% 30% +2 +1 1.08 24% 0.6 .15 14% .40 50% .20 1.05 67% 67% 29% +4 +3 1.17 17% 1.0 .17 27% .52 81% .43
Nov
9		 Cal St. Northridge C A+ F+ F C 34% 17% 48% C+ C D A+ C+ A B F C- F F A+ F F 47% 20% 33% C+ F F C- F B+ F B F
1.12 80% 30% 25% 0 0 1.02 23% 1.6 .36 11% .34 65% .22 1.23 71% 20% 47% +9 +1 1.22 42% 1.0 .42 21% .52 61% .32
Nov
15		 UC Riverside D C F B D+ 49% 10% 41% A- C- D- F F C+ F F F B- D F D+ F 40% 6% 53% F F C C C A+ F A+ D+
1.02 59% 17% 38% 0 +2 1.07 24% 0.7 .17 15% .22 50% .11 1.00 63% 67% 36% +6 +2 1.17 27% 0.9 .23 28% .39 62% .24
Nov
19		 Creighton D- D F C F+ 47% 20% 33% B+ D D D- D- A- C- B C C+ F A+ A+ A+ 27% 9% 64% D+ A+ F F F B F A+ F
0.93 50% 18% 33% -8 +1 0.87 24% 0.9 .21 12% .19 73% .14 1.16 92% 0% 17% -11 +1 0.82 50% 1.3 .64 17% .47 60% .28
Nov
22		 Coastal Carolina F F F F F 23% 33% 44% D F C+ F+ D+ C- A+ F+ A+ C+ C- F D F 39% 17% 44% F F A+ F B D D+ A+ B
0.78 36% 25% 14% -22 -3 0.52 29% 0.9 .25 13% .53 65% .34 1.01 57% 56% 38% +5 +1 1.13 15% 1.2 .18 13% .28 56% .16
Nov
23		 Western Illinois D- D+ C- A+ C 42% 27% 31% D- C- F A+ F F+ C+ A+ A- C+ A A F F 37% 17% 46% F F C+ F F+ A+ F+ A+ C
1.07 59% 36% 44% +4 -1 1.10 12% 2.0 .23 18% .33 85% .28 0.94 41% 25% 48% +1 0 1.04 24% 1.4 .32 23% .37 52% .20
Nov
28		 Hawaii F F F F F 50% 8% 42% A F F A+ D F A+ F+ A D F B- A+ F 60% 6% 34% F F D+ B C B+ F B+ F
0.71 38% 25% 20% -20 +2 0.67 16% 1.3 .22 21% .46 61% .28 1.19 80% 33% 24% +8 +3 1.24 33% 1.0 .33 22% .51 68% .35
Dec
3		 Idaho F B- D- D+ D+ 34% 19% 47% B- C- F+ F F F B- F D- F F A+ F F 30% 7% 63% D F F F F A- F F F
0.84 63% 33% 32% -1 0 1.00 19% 0.0 .00 24% .38 55% .21 1.30 69% 0% 48% +14 +1 1.33 39% 1.2 .48 20% .43 92% .40
Dec
6		 Montana C B- D- F D- 42% 25% 33% C D- A B+ A+ B- C+ A B D- B- C- F D- 40% 11% 49% D D- F F F A- F A+ F+
1.09 64% 31% 18% -7 0 0.87 40% 1.2 .48 14% .31 78% .24 1.15 56% 40% 45% +8 +1 1.20 33% 1.4 .48 25% .46 63% .29
Dec
13		 Western Illinois F F F F 48% 0% 52% A F C- A B- F A+ C- A+ C- A+ A+ A+ A+ 54% 18% 28% F A+ F F+ F A F F F
0.91 50% 17% -17 +3 0.74 32% 1.3 .42 23% .45 72% .33 0.95 33% 22% 14% -24 +1 0.56 48% 1.1 .52 22% .44 80% .35
Dec
18		 Winthrop A F A- A- D 41% 4% 55% A C- A- A+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ F C+ F F F 43% 8% 50% D- F A F F C+ F A F
1.30 38% 50% 39% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.4 .53 10% .51 72% .37 1.27 53% 67% 45% +8 +2 1.23 26% 1.9 .48 16% .74 67% .50
Dec
21		 Nebraska D- F F B C 25% 23% 53% B- C F+ F F B D- A+ D+ B- F+ A A+ A- 44% 15% 41% C B+ D A+ A F+ D F F+
0.83 46% 25% 36% -4 -1 0.91 16% 0.0 .00 18% .16 78% .13 1.17 75% 25% 27% +2 +1 1.07 31% 0.5 .17 9% .31 84% .26
Jan
1		 Oral Roberts F+ F F A+ F+ 51% 16% 33% C+ D- B- F D+ F A+ D A+ B A- F A+ A 41% 14% 45% C- A- B F D C- D+ A+ C
1.04 41% 29% 43% -6 +1 0.93 36% 0.9 .33 20% .62 68% .42 0.88 45% 57% 18% -13 +1 0.78 23% 1.3 .30 17% .33 63% .21
Jan
3		 South Dakota St. A B+ B- C+ B 28% 13% 58% C+ B- A+ C A+ B- C A+ B+ F C+ A+ F D- 46% 10% 44% F F+ F F F B F F F
1.29 67% 43% 35% +4 0 1.11 47% 1.1 .50 14% .30 89% .27 1.25 57% 20% 45% +5 +2 1.16 38% 1.2 .47 19% .41 78% .32
Jan
8		 Nebraska Omaha C+ D- D C D- 34% 12% 54% C+ D C+ C C A- A+ D A+ F F+ F F F 46% 12% 41% F F D- B D+ B F F F
1.15 53% 33% 33% -3 +1 0.98 31% 1.0 .31 10% .49 70% .34 1.32 68% 60% 47% +16 +2 1.37 32% 1.0 .32 19% .63 80% .51
Jan
10		 UMKC B+ F B+ A- D+ 43% 20% 37% C- D+ D+ B C A+ A+ F B+ F B F F F 19% 40% 40% A+ F F A+ C+ A+ D+ F F
1.24 48% 45% 40% +1 0 1.04 33% 1.1 .36 8% .40 58% .23 1.21 50% 59% 65% +26 -4 1.45 39% 0.6 .22 27% .29 93% .27
Jan
15		 St. Thomas C- F+ A+ C D 56% 8% 36% A C- C A+ A D- A+ C+ A+ F+ D A+ F F 38% 5% 57% D+ F A F D A F A+ F
1.10 50% 50% 33% -4 +3 1.00 30% 1.6 .48 21% .52 77% .40 1.25 69% 0% 67% +30 +2 1.67 13% 2.0 .25 21% .59 56% .33
Jan
17		 South Dakota A+ B D C C+ 52% 18% 30% C- C B+ A+ A+ A+ F F F D- D A+ F F 44% 10% 46% F+ F B+ A+ A C+ F+ F F
1.37 66% 36% 33% +3 +1 1.11 38% 1.8 .71 9% .11 57% .06 1.15 62% 20% 45% +8 +2 1.21 23% 0.7 .17 19% .42 83% .35
Jan
22		 Oral Roberts B F F+ A+ D- 63% 12% 25% A- D+ D+ A+ B- A+ D+ A+ B B C A+ A+ A 55% 3% 43% F B+ F F F A+ F B- F
1.20 39% 33% 54% -5 +3 0.98 30% 1.4 .42 9% .30 89% .27 0.94 55% 0% 18% -13 +4 0.83 39% 1.2 .45 27% .57 70% .40
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Denver B+ C F A+ B 38% 17% 44% C- B- C D- D+ C+ A+ C- A+ C- A- F F F 33% 20% 47% D- F A- B+ A- B+ F A+ F
1.27 60% 22% 48% +7 0 1.17 34% 1.0 .34 12% .50 69% .34 1.18 47% 60% 46% +9 0 1.20 24% 1.0 .24 18% .45 67% .30
Jan
29		 St. Thomas B+ C A+ C B 45% 11% 44% B B D+ B- C- A+ D+ F D- C- C F A- B- 55% 10% 35% D- C+ F C+ D- C F D F
1.18 60% 67% 33% +4 +2 1.13 26% 1.2 .32 12% .25 67% .17 1.17 63% 60% 29% +3 +3 1.12 29% 0.9 .26 15% .39 74% .29
Feb
5		 Nebraska Omaha D+ A F F F 37% 15% 48% C F C F D- A+ A+ F A+ C F A+ A A- 28% 24% 48% B A- F F F C+ F A D
1.11 74% 25% 20% -6 +1 0.90 30% 0.7 .21 4% .58 66% .38 1.07 77% 9% 27% -6 -1 0.87 35% 1.3 .45 18% .39 64% .25
Feb
7		 Denver D+ C+ F F F 63% 4% 33% A+ F F A D A+ A+ A+ A+ F F F C- F 35% 23% 42% D+ F F D F D F F+ F
1.18 62% 0% 11% -10 +4 0.89 24% 1.3 .32 4% .44 86% .37 1.46 83% 58% 36% +15 -1 1.31 43% 1.3 .54 12% .39 83% .32
Feb
11		 South Dakota D+ F A+ F F 71% 8% 21% A F B- D+ C+ A C F+ D+ C F B- A+ B 54% 6% 40% F C D C D+ C+ B C- B
1.08 43% 75% 27% -10 +4 0.90 36% 1.2 .42 12% .27 69% .19 1.06 74% 33% 10% -6 +3 0.96 32% 1.0 .32 18% .31 76% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.0 1.2 4.3 1st
2nd 0.0 2.2 9.5 6.6 18.4 2nd
3rd 6.6 41.9 26.1 1.4 75.9 3rd
4th 1.4 1.4 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 8.0 44.2 35.7 11.0 1.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 1.2    0.6 0.6
12-4 27.5% 3.0    0.1 1.3 1.6
11-5 0.2% 0.1    0.1
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8
Total 4.3% 4.3 0.7 1.9 1.7



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 1.2% 9.8% 9.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
12-4 11.0% 5.8% 5.8% 15.8 0.1 0.5 10.3
11-5 35.7% 2.6% 2.6% 15.8 0.2 0.8 34.8
10-6 44.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9 43.2
9-7 8.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 7.8
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 15.9 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 15.1 12.5 62.5 25.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 5.1%