North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.9#330
Expected Predictive Rating-9.4#303
Pace68.8#200
Improvement-0.3#203

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#270
First Shot-4.7#307
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#98
Layup/Dunks-1.0#204
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#268
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#192
Freethrows-1.3#258
Improvement-0.7#258

Defense
Total Defense-7.5#344
First Shot-9.2#357
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#78
Layups/Dunks-4.0#297
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#266
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#268
Freethrows-1.9#293
Improvement+0.4#139
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.9 15.8
.500 or above 2.4% 5.4% 1.5%
.500 or above in Conference 9.6% 12.4% 8.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 28.7% 22.8% 30.6%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Jose St. (Away) - 24.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 71 - 11
Quad 47 - 119 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 264   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 60-75 41%     0 - 1 -23.6 -18.1 -5.1
  Nov 15, 2021 207   Montana W 79-77 28%     1 - 1 -3.0 +7.1 -10.0
  Nov 19, 2021 240   Troy W 74-72 26%     2 - 1 -2.1 +3.1 -5.1
  Nov 20, 2021 221   @ Florida Atlantic L 79-98 14%     2 - 2 -18.5 +6.1 -25.0
  Nov 21, 2021 346   Tennessee Martin L 72-77 60%     2 - 3 -18.5 -13.4 -4.8
  Nov 24, 2021 226   @ Florida International L 56-65 15%     2 - 4 -8.8 -8.4 -1.4
  Nov 28, 2021 91   @ Kansas St. L 42-84 4%     2 - 5 -33.1 -24.1 -8.7
  Dec 03, 2021 280   @ San Jose St. L 68-76 24%    
  Dec 07, 2021 217   @ California Baptist L 70-82 14%    
  Dec 11, 2021 203   Eastern Washington L 74-80 29%    
  Dec 18, 2021 306   Dixie St. W 79-78 49%    
  Dec 22, 2021 182   @ North Dakota St. L 62-75 12%    
  Dec 30, 2021 243   South Dakota L 71-75 38%    
  Jan 01, 2022 70   South Dakota St. L 74-89 8%    
  Jan 06, 2022 335   @ Nebraska Omaha L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 08, 2022 326   @ Denver L 70-74 36%    
  Jan 13, 2022 191   Western Illinois L 73-80 28%    
  Jan 15, 2022 329   St. Thomas W 78-75 60%    
  Jan 20, 2022 170   @ Oral Roberts L 73-87 11%    
  Jan 22, 2022 215   @ UMKC L 62-74 15%    
  Jan 27, 2022 70   @ South Dakota St. L 71-92 3%    
  Jan 29, 2022 243   @ South Dakota L 68-78 20%    
  Feb 03, 2022 326   Denver W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 05, 2022 335   Nebraska Omaha W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 10, 2022 329   @ St. Thomas L 75-78 40%    
  Feb 12, 2022 191   @ Western Illinois L 70-83 13%    
  Feb 17, 2022 215   UMKC L 65-71 31%    
  Feb 19, 2022 170   Oral Roberts L 76-84 24%    
  Feb 26, 2022 182   North Dakota St. L 65-72 28%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.5 3rd
4th 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.2 4.2 1.3 0.2 11.1 6th
7th 0.3 2.9 7.0 5.8 1.9 0.2 18.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.7 7.8 5.6 1.5 0.1 20.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 5.6 8.5 4.8 0.7 0.1 21.0 9th
10th 0.6 3.5 5.7 5.7 2.8 0.4 0.0 18.7 10th
Total 0.6 3.5 7.0 12.1 16.3 16.0 14.6 12.0 8.2 4.6 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 0.0%
14-4 31.3% 0.0    0.0
13-5 6.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 0.1
13-5 0.4% 23.2% 23.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.6% 0.6
11-7 1.4% 1.4
10-8 2.6% 2.6
9-9 4.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 4.5
8-10 8.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 8.1
7-11 12.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.9
6-12 14.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.6
5-13 16.0% 16.0
4-14 16.3% 16.3
3-15 12.1% 12.1
2-16 7.0% 7.0
1-17 3.5% 3.5
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 0.3 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%