South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -3.0 213
Results Rating -6.3 263
Consistency 0.16 215
Pace 67.8 198
Improvement -3.4 307

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 188 C C C+ D C
Defense C- 233 C- C+ D C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 147 C- 57% 197 +0.2 170
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 203 C 38% 175 -0.1 187
Three Pointers 40% 201 C 34% 163 -0.2 183
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 177 C -0.2 172
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 172
Second Chance C- 29.0% 220 C 1.04 159 C 0.30 193
Opponents' Steals C 9.4% 182
Other Turnovers B- 6.6% 88
Turnovers C+ 16.0% 129
Freethrows D 0.27 301 C- 71% 236 D 0.19 300
Total Offense C -1.0 188

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B- 53% 107 C+ 9.9% 117
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 284 C- 6.2% 265
Three Pointers D- 75% 339 B 0.4% 60
Total C- 54% 221 C+ 5.3% 157


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 293 C- 59% 212 -2.0 108
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 271 D 43% 331 -0.4 151
Three Pointers 48% 21 C 34% 195 +3.6 329
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 179 C- +1.3 232
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 225
Second Chance B- 27.3% 71 D+ 1.09 274 C+ 0.30 140
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.0% 289
Other Turnovers C- 6.8% 253
Turnovers D 14.8% 297
Freethrows C 0.30 178 D+ 74% 299 C 0.22 200
Total Defense C- -2.0 233

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 269 D 7.2% 321
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 157 D+ 3.5% 259
Three Pointers C+ 81% 109 D- 0.0% 353
Total C- 58% 239 D- 3.1% 345

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 203 17.4 207
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 289 0.15 102
Consistency 0.14 305 0.11 74
Improvement -0.9 235 -2.5 309

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 227 216 196
Results Rating Rank 275 270 207
Conference Record 7 - 9 7 - 9 7 - 9
Conference Finish 7 7 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7% 26% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four6% 25% 0%
First Round5% 18% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 60 - 7
Quad 31 - 41 - 12
Quad 410 - 611 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 173 Merrimack W 75 - 66 42% +2  58% 1 - 0 B- +8 C -0 C+ D+ C- A- +8 A A- C
 Sun, Nov 9 89 @Northern Iowa L 58 - 65 13% -4  8% 1 - 1 C+ +2 D+ -3 B- B F B +4 D+ A B+
 Wed, Nov 12 82 @Oregon L 69 - 83 12% -5  11% 1 - 2 C- -4 C- -1 C+ C B- D+ -3 D+ C+ D-
 Fri, Nov 21 305 Georgia St. W 105 - 58 79% +28  99% 2 - 2 A+ +35 A+ +23 A+ D- B A +11 B A+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 96 Utah Valley L 52 - 75 21% -10  0% 2 - 3 F+ -17 F -19 F D F C+ +2 B- F B
 Wed, Nov 26 124 UC Irvine L 52 - 64 29% -7  6% 2 - 4 D -9 F -19 F F D A +11 B A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 316 @Northern Arizona W 75 - 62 64% +6  76% 3 - 4 B- +6 D -5 F C C A+ +12 A- C+ B
 Sat, Dec 6 181 Idaho L 81 - 84 55% +1  55% 3 - 5 D+ -7 B- +5 C+ F+ A+ F -12 F C+ D-
 Tue, Dec 9 292 @Ball St. W 68 - 64 56% +0  35% 4 - 5 C -0 C +1 B C C+ C -1 B- D- F
 Mon, Dec 15 101 Wyoming L 72 - 87 23% -13  0% 4 - 6 D -10 C +1 C D+ A+ F -12 F F C
 Fri, Dec 19 261 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 87 - 88 60% -1  39% 4 - 7 D+ -7 B+ +9 B B B+ F -16 F D- C-
 Mon, Dec 29 4 @Arizona L 71 - 99 1% -16  0% 4 - 8 C +0 C+ +3 B- A C+ C -0 C- D- A-
 Thu, Jan 1 253 Nebraska Omaha W 84 - 69 69% +6  86% 5 - 8 1 - 0 B- +7 C+ +3 C- A+ C B +4 A- A F
 Sat, Jan 3 303 @North Dakota L 87 - 90 OT 59% -1  24% 5 - 9 1 - 1 D -8 B +7 C B C+ F -15 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 245 Denver W 87 - 79 67% +1  50% 6 - 9 2 - 1 C +0 C+ +2 D+ A- C C- -2 B- C D-
 Wed, Jan 14 131 @North Dakota St. L 65 - 76 23% -8  1% 6 - 10 2 - 2 D+ -6 D+ -3 C+ F B- D+ -4 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 360 UMKC W 90 - 62 94% +6  82% 7 - 10 3 - 2 B- +7 A +14 A+ C B+ D -5 C F D+
 Thu, Jan 22 112 @St. Thomas L 69 - 74 19% +1  53% 7 - 11 3 - 3 C +1 D -4 C+ D D+ B+ +6 B- D A
 Wed, Jan 28 253 @Nebraska Omaha L 71 - 80 47% -2  19% 7 - 12 3 - 4 D -11 D- -7 F D+ D- D+ -4 C F F
 Sat, Jan 31 318 Oral Roberts W 95 - 72 82% +14  94% 8 - 12 4 - 4 B +10 A- +10 A+ A B- C -0 B+ B- F
 Wed, Feb 4 112 St. Thomas L 62 - 77 37% -5  21% 8 - 13 4 - 5 D- -15 D- -7 C+ F B+ F+ -9 D A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 284 South Dakota L 67 - 68 74% -3  22% 8 - 14 4 - 6 D -11 F -13 D- F B- B- +2 D+ A- D-
 Thu, Feb 12 245 @Denver L 61 - 79 45% -12  1% 8 - 15 4 - 7 F -20 F -15 F D- A+ D -6 F+ D- D+
 Sat, Feb 14 318 @Oral Roberts W 87 - 69 64% +5  71% 9 - 15 5 - 7 B +11 A +14 C A+ C C- -2 B F A
 Wed, Feb 18 131 North Dakota St. L 66 - 74 43% -2  18% 9 - 16 5 - 8 D -9 D- -6 C F A- D+ -3 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 303 North Dakota W 91 - 83 79% -3  10% 10 - 16 6 - 8 C- -3 A +13 C A A+ F -16 F A+ F
 Thu, Feb 26 360 @UMKC W 73 - 59 87% +5  78% 11 - 16 7 - 8 C -1 C +0 D- A- C- C -0 B- B F
 Sat, Feb 28 284 @South Dakota L 70 - 75 53% +3  54% 11 - 17 7 - 9 D -9 D- -7 D+ F+ D+ C- -2 C- A+ F
 Thu, Mar 5 112 St. Thomas L 74 - 80 27%
Totals 11 - 18 7 - 9 -3 C -1 C+ C C C- -2 C C- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C- C C C 40% 36% 40% C C C- C C C+ D C- D C- C- D C C- 35% 18% 48% C C- B- D+ C+ D C D+ C
1.07 57% 38% 34% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.0 .30 16% .27 71% .19 1.11 59% 43% 34% +1 0 1.05 27% 1.1 .30 15% .30 74% .20
Nov
3		 Merrimack C D- D- A+ C+ 44% 23% 33% C C+ C- C- D+ C- A+ B A+ A- A+ A- A+ 49% 0% 51% F A C A+ A- C F D+ F
1.07 48% 33% 41% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.0 .39 20% .46 77% .36 0.94 38% 28% -15 +3 0.80 23% 0.7 .15 16% .46 81% .37
Nov
9		 Northern Iowa D+ A C F B- 39% 20% 41% C B- A+ F+ B F B F C+ B D+ A+ D+ C 57% 5% 39% F D+ A- A+ A B+ F A+ D
0.91 69% 38% 24% -2 0 0.98 40% 0.8 .30 27% .30 64% .19 1.02 64% 0% 35% +2 +3 1.14 16% 0.8 .13 17% .38 55% .21
Nov
12		 Oregon C- D+ A+ D B- 26% 31% 43% D C+ F A+ C B- D+ F D- D+ F+ D- C- D- 16% 16% 67% A D+ A+ F C+ D- A- C- B+
0.98 50% 53% 30% 0 -2 0.98 19% 1.3 .25 16% .23 64% .15 1.18 67% 44% 35% +4 -1 1.07 24% 1.6 .38 14% .26 75% .20
Nov
21		 Georgia St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 9% 49% B+ A+ C- F D- B B+ B+ A- A F B- A+ A- 24% 12% 63% F B A+ C+ A+ C F A+ F
1.47 77% 80% 50% +24 +2 1.53 33% 0.8 .26 14% .36 77% .28 0.81 67% 33% 19% -12 0 0.78 11% 1.0 .11 17% .45 67% .30
Nov
25		 Utah Valley F F A+ F F 34% 16% 50% C F B- F D F C B- C C+ B A- D B- 48% 14% 38% C+ B- D+ F F B A F B
0.74 40% 71% 18% -13 0 0.77 34% 0.7 .24 30% .33 75% .25 1.07 54% 29% 37% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.2 .48 23% .20 82% .17
Nov
26		 UC Irvine F D- F F F 43% 21% 36% B- F F C- F D B F C- A F A+ A+ B+ 37% 21% 42% D+ B A- A+ A+ A+ F F F
0.70 43% 27% 16% -18 0 0.66 21% 0.9 .19 20% .29 59% .17 0.86 69% 22% 22% -7 0 0.88 25% 0.6 .16 27% .52 75% .39
Dec
3		 Northern Arizona D D- D- F+ F 37% 12% 51% C F C- C+ C C A+ C A+ A+ C D A+ A 33% 24% 43% B- A- B+ D C+ B F A D+
1.10 53% 33% 31% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.2 .37 16% .44 72% .31 0.91 56% 42% 24% -6 -1 0.88 19% 1.1 .22 19% .34 58% .20
Dec
6		 Idaho B- B+ D B+ B- 40% 34% 26% D+ C+ D F F+ A+ A+ C- A+ F C+ F F+ F 27% 22% 51% A F A- D- C+ D- F C- F
1.18 65% 35% 38% +4 -2 1.06 21% 0.9 .18 7% .52 73% .38 1.22 54% 64% 40% +9 -1 1.18 23% 1.1 .27 13% .49 72% .35
Dec
9		 Ball St. C C D A+ B- 49% 18% 33% B+ B C C- C C+ F F+ F C F+ A A+ B 39% 16% 45% C- B- F D+ D- F F C F+
1.07 58% 33% 44% +4 +1 1.12 33% 1.0 .33 17% .21 73% .15 1.01 63% 25% 18% -11 +1 0.82 33% 0.9 .30 11% .35 70% .25
Dec
15		 Wyoming C D F B+ C- 43% 8% 49% B C D- A- D+ A+ B- A- B+ F F D- D+ F 36% 20% 44% A- F D F F C D F F+
1.08 52% 0% 38% -3 +2 1.00 19% 1.1 .22 10% .40 75% .30 1.30 78% 50% 36% +11 0 1.24 39% 1.6 .61 16% .36 85% .30
Dec
19		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee B+ C+ B A- B 38% 13% 50% C+ B B- B B B+ F F F F A+ F F F 30% 28% 42% B+ F F A+ D- C- C+ F D-
1.27 62% 43% 39% +6 +1 1.16 33% 1.3 .42 13% .25 53% .13 1.28 25% 67% 50% +8 -2 1.15 50% 0.8 .42 15% .26 87% .22
Dec
29		 Arizona C+ F+ F A+ C+ 41% 25% 34% A- B- C- A+ A C+ B- F D C F A+ D+ C 45% 18% 37% F+ C- B F D- A- F D+ F
0.91 42% 27% 40% -7 0 0.88 21% 1.6 .33 18% .27 53% .14 1.27 78% 22% 37% +8 +1 1.20 36% 1.3 .48 18% .49 77% .38
Jan
1		 Nebraska Omaha C+ B- F F D 55% 9% 36% A C- A+ A- A+ C B+ A A B A C- A- A 31% 17% 53% C A- A+ C+ A F C C- C
1.20 66% 20% 26% -2 +3 1.04 41% 1.2 .49 14% .35 81% .28 0.99 44% 40% 29% -8 0 0.86 16% 1.0 .16 6% .29 74% .21
Jan
3		 North Dakota B D+ F A+ C 46% 10% 44% B- C B- B- B C+ B- A- B+ F F D- D+ F 28% 13% 58% B F F C F C- B- F D
1.25 57% 20% 45% +5 +2 1.16 38% 1.2 .47 19% .41 78% .32 1.29 67% 43% 35% +4 0 1.11 47% 1.1 .50 14% .30 89% .27
Jan
8		 Denver C+ A F D+ C- 44% 27% 29% D D+ B+ B- A- C A B+ A+ C- A+ D D- C+ 23% 36% 41% A B- D- B+ C D- B+ A+ A
1.25 74% 21% 33% +2 0 1.06 41% 1.2 .50 13% .41 76% .31 1.14 38% 45% 39% +1 -3 0.98 34% 1.0 .34 12% .24 67% .16
Jan
14		 North Dakota St. D+ A+ F B- C+ 33% 16% 51% C+ C+ F+ F F B- D+ F D- D+ C F+ F F 24% 22% 55% B- F A+ A+ A+ D B+ F C+
1.00 75% 25% 36% +5 0 1.12 22% 0.3 .06 17% .22 67% .15 1.17 58% 45% 50% +15 -1 1.29 20% 0.5 .10 14% .22 83% .18
Jan
17		 UMKC A A A+ A+ A+ 49% 20% 31% C A+ C C- C B+ C F D D D A+ C- C 35% 24% 41% C- C D F F D+ C+ D+ C+
1.38 72% 80% 44% +20 +1 1.43 37% 1.0 .37 14% .27 60% .16 0.95 61% 8% 33% -6 -1 0.88 30% 1.3 .38 17% .24 69% .17
Jan
22		 St. Thomas D F+ A+ D C 46% 15% 38% C+ C+ C- F+ D D+ D F F B+ D A+ C+ B 42% 4% 53% D B- C- F+ D A F F+ F
0.99 50% 75% 30% 0 +1 1.04 27% 1.0 .27 19% .23 46% .11 1.06 68% 0% 33% +2 +2 1.11 23% 1.1 .26 20% .43 75% .32
Jan
28		 Nebraska Omaha D- A F F F 35% 22% 43% D+ F B F D+ D- A+ C- A+ D+ F+ F A+ C 34% 25% 42% B- C C+ F F F F+ F F
1.01 72% 27% 18% -8 0 0.86 34% 0.8 .27 17% .43 72% .31 1.14 67% 54% 23% 0 -1 1.00 24% 1.5 .36 11% .35 82% .29
Jan
31		 Oral Roberts A- D A+ A+ A+ 57% 12% 31% B A+ C- A+ A B- F F F C A+ F C+ A- 26% 14% 60% B- B+ B C+ B- F F B- F
1.30 52% 71% 56% +10 +2 1.28 30% 1.6 .48 14% .19 58% .11 0.98 20% 50% 32% -10 0 0.82 24% 0.9 .22 12% .42 70% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 St. Thomas D- A+ A+ F C+ 39% 7% 54% B C+ F+ F F B+ C+ C- C F+ F+ F D- D- 28% 11% 61% B+ D A+ A+ A+ F A F B-
0.99 78% 100% 20% 0 +2 1.07 21% 0.4 .09 14% .28 73% .21 1.23 73% 50% 39% +10 0 1.24 10% 0.0 .00 8% .21 83% .17
Feb
7		 South Dakota F F C+ A+ D+ 40% 35% 25% F D- F F+ F B- F A F B- B+ D+ D- D 30% 19% 51% B D+ A+ C- A- D- A+ A+ A+
0.96 45% 42% 43% 0 -2 0.98 12% 1.0 .12 14% .18 82% .15 0.98 50% 40% 37% 0 0 1.02 16% 1.0 .16 14% .22 62% .13
Feb
12		 Denver F F A+ F F 48% 22% 29% C- F F A D- A+ F A+ F D A+ F F F+ 31% 24% 45% C- F+ F C+ D- D+ B- B B
0.96 43% 62% 12% -12 0 0.79 23% 1.3 .30 8% .17 90% .15 1.25 40% 50% 50% +8 -1 1.16 38% 1.1 .41 13% .27 73% .20
Feb
14		 Oral Roberts A C- F A+ C 49% 12% 39% B- C B A+ A+ C F A+ C C- B+ A+ B+ A- 45% 11% 45% F+ B F F F A B- F D
1.32 54% 17% 42% 0 +2 1.06 37% 2.1 .77 15% .25 93% .23 1.04 48% 20% 29% -10 +2 0.85 37% 1.5 .57 23% .27 93% .25
Feb
18		 North Dakota St. D- A+ F C C 35% 20% 45% C C F F F A- C F D- D+ F F+ A+ D 33% 27% 41% B- D+ A+ C+ A+ F F B- F
1.01 78% 20% 35% +4 0 1.10 19% 0.4 .08 15% .25 57% .14 1.13 81% 46% 25% +4 -1 1.08 13% 1.0 .13 8% .43 69% .30
Feb
21		 North Dakota A D- F A+ C 35% 12% 53% C- C A- B+ A A+ B+ A+ A+ F F F F F 35% 11% 54% C F A+ A A+ F A+ B A+
1.38 53% 17% 46% +5 +1 1.14 42% 1.3 .55 12% .43 84% .36 1.26 74% 50% 41% +13 +1 1.30 19% 0.8 .16 11% .20 67% .14
Feb
26		 UMKC C D- F A- F+ 49% 19% 32% C D- C+ A+ A- C- C+ B B- C A+ A- D+ B+ 37% 13% 50% F B- A+ F B F C A- B-
1.14 52% 22% 40% -3 +1 0.98 38% 1.3 .50 17% .28 73% .21 0.92 32% 29% 35% -11 +1 0.83 13% 1.4 .18 8% .25 60% .15
Feb
28		 South Dakota D- F B A+ C 40% 38% 23% F D+ C+ F F+ D+ D- D- F+ C- B F A+ C 54% 14% 32% F C- A+ A+ A+ F F F+ F
1.01 43% 45% 50% +2 -2 1.02 35% 0.8 .27 17% .23 69% .16 1.08 52% 71% 25% -3 +2 1.00 10% 0.7 .07 10% .50 81% .40



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 100.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9 100.0% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 6.7 93.4
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 16.0 93.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.7% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 9.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.8%
Lose Out 74.2%