South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.5 202
Expected Predictive Rating -6.1 265
Pace 68.9 169
Improvement -3.6 316

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 197 C C C+ D C+
Defense C- 217 C- C C- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 130 C 58% 177 +0.9 142
2 Pt. Jumpers 35% 208 C+ 40% 91 +0.0 179
Three Pointers 41% 191 C- 33% 208 -0.6 202
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 153 C +0.0 176
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 168
Second Chance C- 28.6% 231 C+ 1.06 133 C 0.30 197
Turnovers C+ 16.3% 143
Freethrows D 0.27 295 C- 71% 240 D 0.19 298
Total Offense C- -1.2 197

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 52% 110 B- 9.5% 92
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 16% 308 D 7.3% 310
Three Pointers D- 76% 326 B 0.4% 70
Total C- 53% 230 C+ 5.4% 160

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 309 C 58% 184 -2.7 96
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 264 D 41% 303 -0.6 144
Three Pointers 48% 19 C 34% 195 +3.9 335
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 167 C- +0.8 212
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 205
Second Chance C+ 29.3% 136 D+ 1.09 280 C 0.32 204
Turnovers C- 15.8% 240
Freethrows C+ 0.29 159 D 74% 301 C 0.22 185
Total Defense C- -1.4 217

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 286 D+ 8.7% 269
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 22% 137 C- 3.8% 238
Three Pointers C+ 82% 326 D- -0.1% 70
Total C- 59% 252 D 3.6% 329

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 183 17.3 195
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 252 0.15 114
Improvement -1.3 #255 -2.2 #295

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10% 11% 9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.6 16.0
.500 or above 2% 5% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 58% 82% 36%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four6% 5% 7%
First Round8% 9% 6%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Home) - 46.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 50 - 6
Quad 32 - 52 - 11
Quad 411 - 613 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 161 Merrimack W 75 - 66 41% +2  58% 1 - 0 B +9 C +1 C+ C- C- A- +7 A B+ C-
 Sun, Nov 9 91 @Northern Iowa L 58 - 65 15% -4  8% 1 - 1 C+ +2 D+ -3 B- B+ F B +4 D A B+
 Wed, Nov 12 88 @Oregon L 69 - 83 14% -5  11% 1 - 2 D+ -5 D+ -2 C C B- C- -2 C- C+ D
 Fri, Nov 21 285 Georgia St. W 105 - 58 76% +28  99% 2 - 2 A+ +37 A+ +24 A+ D B+ A+ +12 B A+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 102 Utah Valley L 52 - 75 24% -10  0% 2 - 3 F -18 F -20 F D- F B- +2 B F+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 122 UC Irvine L 52 - 64 30% -7  6% 2 - 4 D -9 F -20 F F+ D A+ +12 B A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 313 @Northern Arizona W 75 - 62 63% +6  76% 3 - 4 B- +7 D -4 F C C A+ +12 A- C B
 Sat, Dec 6 186 Idaho L 81 - 84 58% +1  55% 3 - 5 D+ -8 B- +5 C+ D- A+ F -12 F C D-
 Tue, Dec 9 314 @Ball St. W 68 - 64 64% +0  35% 4 - 5 C- -2 C- -1 C+ C- C+ C -1 B- F+ F
 Mon, Dec 15 104 Wyoming L 72 - 87 25% -13  0% 4 - 6 D -11 C +0 C C- A+ F -11 F F C
 Fri, Dec 19 268 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 87 - 88 63% -1  39% 4 - 7 D+ -7 A- +9 B B B+ F -16 F F+ C-
 Mon, Dec 29 3 @Arizona L 71 - 99 1% -16  0% 4 - 8 C -1 C+ +3 B- A C+ C -1 C F+ B+
 Thu, Jan 1 238 Nebraska Omaha W 84 - 69 68% +6  86% 5 - 8 1 - 0 B- +8 C+ +3 C- A+ C B +4 A A F
 Sat, Jan 3 300 @North Dakota L 87 - 90 OT 59% -1  24% 5 - 9 1 - 1 D+ -8 B+ +7 C+ B B- F -15 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 249 Denver W 87 - 79 69% +1  50% 6 - 9 2 - 1 C +0 C+ +3 D+ A- C C- -3 B- C D-
 Wed, Jan 14 140 @North Dakota St. L 65 - 76 25% -8  1% 6 - 10 2 - 2 D+ -7 D+ -4 C F B D+ -3 F A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 17 359 UMKC W 90 - 62 93% +6  82% 7 - 10 3 - 2 B +9 A+ +15 A+ C B+ D+ -4 C F D
 Thu, Jan 22 123 @St. Thomas L 69 - 74 21% +1  53% 7 - 11 3 - 3 C +1 D -5 C D C- B+ +6 B- D A
 Wed, Jan 28 238 @Nebraska Omaha L 71 - 80 45% -2  19% 7 - 12 3 - 4 D -10 D- -7 F D+ D- D+ -3 C+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 338 Oral Roberts W 95 - 72 87% +14  94% 8 - 12 4 - 4 B +8 B+ +9 A+ B+ B- C- -2 B B- F
 Wed, Feb 4 123 St. Thomas L 62 - 77 41% -5  21% 8 - 13 4 - 5 F+ -15 F+ -8 C+ F B+ F+ -9 D A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 280 South Dakota L 67 - 68 76% -3  22% 8 - 14 4 - 6 D -11 F -14 D- F B B- +3 D+ A D-
 Thu, Feb 12 249 @Denver L 61 - 79 47% -12  1% 8 - 15 4 - 7 F -20 F -15 F D- A D- -7 F+ D D
 Sat, Feb 14 338 @Oral Roberts W 87 - 69 73% +5  71% 9 - 15 5 - 7 B +9 A +13 C A+ C C- -3 B- F A-
 Wed, Feb 18 140 North Dakota St. L 73 - 74 47%
 Sat, Feb 21 300 North Dakota W 80 - 72 77%
 Thu, Feb 26 359 @UMKC W 78 - 67 84%
 Sat, Feb 28 280 @South Dakota W 79 - 78 55%
Totals 12 - 16 8 - 8 -3 C- -1 B+ C C+ C- -1 C- C- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C C+ C- C 40% 35% 41% C+ C C- C+ C C+ D C- D C- C D C C- 34% 18% 48% C C- C+ D+ C C- C+ D C
1.07 58% 40% 33% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.1 .30 16% .27 71% .19 1.11 58% 41% 34% +1 0 1.04 29% 1.1 .32 16% .29 74% .20
Nov
3		 Merrimack C D- D- A+ C+ 44% 23% 33% C+ C+ C- C C- C- A+ A- A+ A- A+ A- A+ 49% 0% 51% F A C A+ B+ C- F D F
1.07 48% 33% 41% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.0 .39 20% .46 77% .36 0.94 38% 28% -15 +3 0.80 23% 0.7 .15 16% .46 81% .37
Nov
9		 Northern Iowa D+ A C F B- 39% 20% 41% C B- A+ D- B+ F B F C B D+ A+ D+ C- 57% 5% 39% F D A- A+ A B+ F A+ D
0.91 69% 38% 24% -2 0 0.98 40% 0.8 .30 27% .30 64% .19 1.02 64% 0% 35% +2 +3 1.14 16% 0.8 .13 17% .38 55% .21
Nov
12		 Oregon D+ D+ A+ D C+ 26% 31% 43% D C F A+ C B- D+ F F+ C- F+ D C- D 16% 16% 67% A C- A+ F C+ D A- C- B+
0.98 50% 53% 30% 0 -2 0.98 19% 1.3 .25 16% .23 64% .15 1.18 67% 44% 35% +4 -1 1.07 24% 1.6 .38 14% .26 75% .20
Nov
21		 Georgia St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 9% 49% B A+ C F D B+ B+ B+ A A+ F C+ A+ A- 24% 12% 63% F B A+ C+ A+ C F A+ F
1.47 77% 80% 50% +24 +2 1.53 33% 0.8 .26 14% .36 77% .28 0.81 67% 33% 19% -12 0 0.78 11% 1.0 .11 17% .45 67% .30
Nov
25		 Utah Valley F F A+ F F 34% 16% 50% C+ F B- F D- F C C+ C B- B A- D B 48% 14% 38% C+ B D+ D- F+ B A F B
0.74 40% 71% 18% -13 0 0.77 34% 0.7 .24 30% .33 75% .25 1.07 54% 29% 37% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.2 .48 23% .20 82% .17
Nov
26		 UC Irvine F D- F F F 43% 21% 36% B F F C F+ D B F C- A+ F A+ A+ B+ 37% 21% 42% D B B+ A+ A+ A+ F F+ F
0.70 43% 27% 16% -18 0 0.66 21% 0.9 .19 20% .29 59% .17 0.86 69% 22% 22% -7 0 0.88 25% 0.6 .16 27% .52 75% .39
Dec
3		 Northern Arizona D D- D- D- F 37% 12% 51% C F C- B- C C A+ C- A+ A+ C+ D A+ A 33% 24% 43% B- A- B F+ C B F+ A+ D+
1.10 53% 33% 31% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.2 .37 16% .44 72% .31 0.91 56% 42% 24% -6 -1 0.88 19% 1.1 .22 19% .34 58% .20
Dec
6		 Idaho B- B+ D B+ B- 40% 34% 26% D+ C+ D F D- A+ A+ C- A+ F B- F F+ F 27% 22% 51% A F B F+ C D- F C F
1.18 65% 35% 38% +4 -2 1.06 21% 0.9 .18 7% .52 73% .38 1.22 54% 64% 40% +9 -1 1.18 23% 1.1 .27 13% .49 72% .35
Dec
9		 Ball St. C- C- D A+ C+ 49% 18% 33% B C+ C C- C- C+ F+ F+ F C F+ A A+ B 39% 16% 45% D+ B- F D+ F+ F D- C D-
1.07 58% 33% 44% +4 +1 1.12 33% 1.0 .33 17% .21 73% .15 1.01 63% 25% 18% -11 +1 0.82 33% 0.9 .30 11% .35 70% .25
Dec
15		 Wyoming C D F B+ C- 43% 8% 49% B C D- A C- A+ C+ B+ B F F D- D+ F 36% 20% 44% A- F D+ F F C D+ F D-
1.08 52% 0% 38% -3 +2 1.00 19% 1.1 .22 10% .40 75% .30 1.30 78% 50% 36% +11 0 1.24 39% 1.6 .61 16% .36 85% .30
Dec
19		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee A- C+ B A- B 38% 13% 50% C+ B B- B B B+ F F F F A+ F F F 30% 28% 42% B F F A F+ C- C+ F D
1.27 62% 43% 39% +6 +1 1.16 33% 1.3 .42 13% .25 53% .13 1.28 25% 67% 50% +8 -2 1.15 50% 0.8 .42 15% .26 87% .22
Dec
29		 Arizona C+ F+ F A C+ 41% 25% 34% A- B- C- A+ A C+ C+ F D+ C F A+ C- C+ 45% 18% 37% F+ C B+ F F+ B+ F D F
0.91 42% 27% 40% -6 0 0.88 21% 1.6 .33 18% .27 53% .14 1.27 78% 22% 37% +8 +1 1.20 36% 1.3 .48 18% .49 77% .38
Jan
1		 Nebraska Omaha C+ B- F F D 55% 9% 36% A C- A A- A+ C B A A- B A+ C- B+ A 31% 17% 53% C- A A+ B- A F C+ C- C
1.20 66% 20% 26% -2 +3 1.04 41% 1.2 .49 14% .35 81% .28 0.99 44% 40% 29% -8 0 0.86 16% 1.0 .16 6% .29 74% .21
Jan
3		 North Dakota B+ D+ F A+ C 46% 10% 44% B- C+ B- B B B- B- A B+ F F D- D+ F 28% 13% 58% B F F C- F C- B- F D
1.25 57% 20% 45% +5 +2 1.16 38% 1.2 .47 19% .41 78% .32 1.29 67% 43% 35% +4 0 1.11 47% 1.1 .50 14% .30 89% .27
Jan
8		 Denver C+ A+ F C- C- 44% 27% 29% D D+ B+ B A- C A+ B+ A+ C- A+ D D- C+ 23% 36% 41% A B- D A- C D- B A+ A-
1.25 74% 21% 33% +2 0 1.06 41% 1.2 .50 13% .41 76% .31 1.14 38% 45% 39% +1 -3 0.98 34% 1.0 .34 12% .24 67% .16
Jan
14		 North Dakota St. D+ A+ F C+ C 33% 16% 51% C+ C F+ F F B D+ F D- D+ C D- F F 24% 22% 55% C+ F A+ A+ A+ D- B+ F C+
1.00 75% 25% 36% +5 0 1.12 22% 0.3 .06 17% .22 67% .15 1.17 58% 45% 50% +15 -1 1.29 20% 0.5 .10 14% .22 83% .18
Jan
17		 UMKC A+ A A+ A+ A+ 49% 20% 31% C+ A+ C C C B+ C F D+ D+ D A+ C- C+ 35% 24% 41% D+ C C- F F D C+ C- C+
1.38 72% 80% 44% +20 +1 1.43 37% 1.0 .37 14% .27 60% .16 0.95 61% 8% 33% -6 -1 0.88 30% 1.3 .38 17% .24 69% .17
Jan
22		 St. Thomas D F+ A+ D C 46% 15% 38% C+ C D+ F+ D C- D F F B+ D A+ C+ B 42% 4% 53% D B- D+ F D A F D- F
0.99 50% 75% 30% 0 +1 1.04 27% 1.0 .27 19% .23 46% .11 1.06 68% 0% 33% +2 +2 1.11 23% 1.1 .26 20% .43 75% .32
Jan
28		 Nebraska Omaha D- A F F F 35% 22% 43% D+ F B F D+ D- A+ D+ A+ D+ F+ F A+ C 34% 25% 42% B- C+ C+ F F+ F D- F F
1.01 72% 27% 18% -7 0 0.86 34% 0.8 .27 17% .43 72% .31 1.14 67% 54% 23% 0 -1 1.00 24% 1.5 .36 11% .35 82% .29
Jan
31		 Oral Roberts B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 57% 12% 31% B A+ D+ A+ B+ B- F F F C- A+ F C B 26% 14% 60% B- B B- B- B- F F B- F
1.30 52% 71% 56% +10 +2 1.28 30% 1.6 .48 14% .19 58% .11 0.98 20% 50% 32% -10 0 0.82 24% 0.9 .22 12% .42 70% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 St. Thomas F+ A+ A+ F C 39% 7% 54% B C+ F+ F F B+ C+ C- C F+ F+ F D- D- 28% 11% 61% B+ D A+ A+ A+ F A F B
0.99 78% 100% 20% 0 +2 1.07 21% 0.4 .09 14% .28 73% .21 1.23 73% 50% 39% +11 0 1.24 10% 0.0 .00 8% .21 83% .17
Feb
7		 South Dakota F F C+ A+ D+ 40% 35% 25% F D- F F F B F A F+ B- B D+ D D 30% 19% 51% B D+ A+ C A D- A+ A+ A+
0.96 45% 42% 43% 0 -2 0.98 12% 1.0 .12 14% .18 82% .15 0.98 50% 40% 37% 0 0 1.02 16% 1.0 .16 14% .22 62% .13
Feb
12		 Denver F F A+ F F 48% 22% 29% C- F F A D- A F A+ F+ D- A+ F F F 31% 24% 45% C- F+ F B- D D B- B B-
0.96 43% 62% 12% -12 0 0.79 23% 1.3 .30 8% .17 90% .15 1.25 40% 50% 50% +8 -1 1.16 38% 1.1 .41 13% .27 73% .20
Feb
14		 Oral Roberts A C- F A C 49% 12% 39% B- C B- A+ A+ C F+ A+ C C- B A+ B+ B+ 45% 11% 45% D- B- F F F A- B- F D
1.32 54% 17% 42% 0 +2 1.06 37% 2.1 .77 15% .25 93% .23 1.04 48% 20% 29% -10 +2 0.85 37% 1.5 .57 23% .27 93% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 2.0 2.0 3rd
4th 0.0 10.7 14.9 25.6 4th
5th 3.2 23.4 1.2 27.8 5th
6th 1.1 16.7 5.4 23.2 6th
7th 1.3 8.9 11.1 0.1 21.4 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 1.3 10.0 31.0 39.5 18.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 18.1% 12.0% 12.0% 15.2 0.0 1.8 0.4 15.9
8-8 39.5% 10.8% 10.8% 16.0 0.1 4.1 35.3
7-9 31.0% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.0 2.6 28.4
6-10 10.0% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.6 9.4
5-11 1.3% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.1 1.2
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 15.8 90.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.2% 100.0% 15.2 1.2 81.8 17.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.5%
Lose Out 0.8%