South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.1 192
Expected Predictive Rating -6.3 264
Pace 69.7 149
Improvement -2.7 295

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #185 C+ C- C+ D+ C+
Defense C- #213 C- C+ D+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 138 59% 152 +1.3 129
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 206 40% 93 +0.0 178
Three Pointers 41% 191 34% 190 -0.3 188
1st FG Attempt 1.04 141 +1.0 139
Second Chance 29.0% 227 1.01 189 0.29 213
Turnovers 16.5% 155
Freethrows 0.28 273 69% 274 0.19 291
Total Offense -0.9 185

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 311 59% 204 +2.7 93
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 258 42% 310 +0.5 147
Three Pointers 49% 15 34% 182 -3.9 331
1st FG Attempt 1.04 215 -0.8 204
Second Chance 28.5% 98 1.06 250 0.30 154
Turnovers 15.7% 252
Freethrows 0.30 177 74% 293 0.22 197
Total Defense -1.2 213

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.3 152 +0.0 163
Shot Type Accuracy +0.7 150 +1.0 223
Possession Length 17.4 180 17.2 181
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 232 0.15 98
Improvement -0.9 #240 -1.8 #290

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.8% 13.4% 10.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 15.9
.500 or above 9.4% 16.3% 2.0%
.500 or above in Conference 64.4% 82.4% 45.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.8% 4.8% 6.8%
First Round9.6% 11.5% 7.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Away) - 51.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 50 - 6
Quad 31 - 51 - 11
Quad 411 - 613 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 184 Merrimack W 75 - 66 47% +2  58% 1 - 0 B- +8 C +0 C C- D+ B+ +7 A A- C-
 Sun, Nov 9 100 @Northern Iowa L 58 - 65 17% -4  8% 1 - 1 C +1 D+ -2 B- B+ F B- +3 D A B
 Wed, Nov 12 80 @Oregon L 69 - 83 13% -5  11% 1 - 2 C- -4 D+ -2 C C B- C -2 C- B- D
 Fri, Nov 21 274 Georgia St. W 105 - 58 76% +28  99% 2 - 2 A+ +38 A+ +24 A+ D B A +13 B A+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 94 Utah Valley L 52 - 75 24% -10  0% 2 - 3 F -18 F -20 F D F C+ +2 B- D- B
 Wed, Nov 26 118 UC Irvine L 52 - 64 31% -7  6% 2 - 4 D -9 F -20 F D- D- A +12 B- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 313 @Northern Arizona W 75 - 62 65% +6  76% 3 - 4 B- +7 D -4 F C C A +12 A- C B
 Sat, Dec 6 188 Idaho L 81 - 84 61% +1  55% 3 - 5 D+ -8 B- +5 C+ D- A+ F -13 F C D-
 Tue, Dec 9 307 @Ball St. W 68 - 64 63% +0  35% 4 - 5 C -2 C- -2 C+ C- B- C+ +0 B- D- F
 Mon, Dec 15 105 Wyoming L 72 - 87 27% -13  0% 4 - 6 D -11 C +1 C C A+ F -13 F F C
 Fri, Dec 19 268 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 87 - 88 65% -1  39% 4 - 7 D+ -7 A- +9 B B B+ F -16 F F+ C-
 Mon, Dec 29 2 @Arizona L 71 - 99 1% -16  0% 4 - 8 C -0 C+ +3 B- A C+ C -0 C F+ B+
 Thu, Jan 1 248 Nebraska Omaha W 84 - 69 71% +6  86% 5 - 8 1 - 0 B- +7 B- +4 C- A+ C- B- +3 A- A F
 Sat, Jan 3 293 @North Dakota L 87 - 90 OT 60% -1  24% 5 - 9 1 - 1 D+ -8 B+ +7 C+ B+ B- F -15 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 257 Denver W 87 - 79 73% +1  50% 6 - 9 2 - 1 C -0 C+ +2 D+ A- C C- -3 B- C D-
 Wed, Jan 14 148 @North Dakota St. L 65 - 76 28% -8  1% 6 - 10 2 - 2 D+ -7 D -4 C F B D+ -4 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 357 UMKC W 90 - 62 92% +6  82% 7 - 10 3 - 2 B +10 A+ +16 A+ C B+ C- -3 C+ F D
 Thu, Jan 22 122 @St. Thomas L 69 - 74 23% +1  53% 7 - 11 3 - 3 C +1 D -5 C D C- B +5 C+ D- A
 Wed, Jan 28 248 @Nebraska Omaha L 71 - 80 49% -2  19% 7 - 12 3 - 4 D -11 D- -6 F C- D- D+ -4 C D- F
 Sat, Jan 31 338 Oral Roberts W 95 - 72 87% +14  94% 8 - 12 4 - 4 B +9 B+ +9 A A- C+ C -1 B+ B- F
 Wed, Feb 4 122 St. Thomas L 62 - 77 44% -5  21% 8 - 13 4 - 5 F+ -15 D- -7 C+ F A- F+ -10 D A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 275 South Dakota L 67 - 68 76% -3  22% 8 - 14 4 - 6 D -11 F -14 D- F B B- +3 D+ A D-
 Thu, Feb 12 257 @Denver W 82 - 81 51%
 Sat, Feb 14 338 @Oral Roberts W 77 - 71 72%
 Wed, Feb 18 148 North Dakota St. W 75 - 74 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 293 North Dakota W 82 - 73 79%
 Thu, Feb 26 357 @UMKC W 78 - 68 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 275 @South Dakota W 80 - 79 56%
Totals 12 - 16 8 - 8 -2 C -1 C+ C- C+ C- -1 C- C+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C C+ C C 40% 19% 41% C+ C+ C- C C- C+ D+ D+ D+ C- C- D C C- 33% 18% 49% C C- B- C- C+ D+ C D+ C
1.07 59% 40% 34% +1 0 1.04 29% 1.0 .29 16% .28 69% .19 1.10 59% 42% 34% +1 0 1.04 28% 1.1 .30 16% .30 74% .21
Nov
3		 Merrimack C D- D- A+ C 44% 23% 33% C C C- C C- D+ A+ B+ A+ B+ A+ B+ A+ 49% 0% 51% F A C+ A+ A- C- F D F
1.07 48% 33% 41% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.0 .39 20% .46 77% .36 0.94 38% 28% -15 +3 0.80 23% 0.7 .15 16% .46 81% .37
Nov
9		 Northern Iowa D+ A C F B 39% 20% 41% C+ B- A+ D- B+ F B F C+ B- D+ A+ D+ C- 57% 5% 39% F D A- A+ A B F A+ D-
0.91 69% 38% 24% -2 0 0.98 40% 0.8 .30 27% .30 64% .19 1.02 64% 0% 35% +2 +3 1.14 16% 0.8 .13 17% .38 55% .21
Nov
12		 Oregon D+ D+ A+ D C+ 26% 31% 43% D C F A+ C B- D+ F D- C F+ D C- D 16% 16% 67% A C- A+ F B- D A- D B+
0.98 50% 53% 30% 0 -2 0.98 19% 1.3 .25 16% .23 64% .15 1.18 67% 44% 35% +4 -1 1.07 24% 1.6 .38 14% .26 75% .20
Nov
21		 Georgia St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 9% 49% B A+ C F D B B+ B+ A- A F C+ A+ A- 24% 12% 63% F B A+ B- A+ C F A+ F+
1.47 77% 80% 50% +24 +2 1.53 33% 0.8 .26 14% .36 77% .28 0.81 67% 33% 19% -12 0 0.78 11% 1.0 .11 17% .45 67% .30
Nov
25		 Utah Valley F F A+ F F 34% 16% 50% C+ F B F D F C- C+ C C+ B A- D B- 48% 14% 38% C+ B- D+ D D- B A F B
0.74 40% 71% 18% -13 0 0.77 34% 0.7 .24 30% .33 75% .25 1.07 54% 29% 37% -1 +2 1.02 39% 1.2 .48 23% .20 82% .17
Nov
26		 UC Irvine F D- F F F 43% 21% 36% B- F F C+ D- D- B- F D+ A F A+ A+ B 37% 21% 42% D+ B- A- A+ A+ A+ F F+ F
0.70 43% 27% 16% -18 0 0.66 21% 0.9 .19 20% .29 59% .17 0.86 69% 22% 22% -7 0 0.88 25% 0.6 .16 27% .52 75% .39
Dec
3		 Northern Arizona D D D D- F 37% 12% 51% C+ F C- B C C A+ C- A+ A C D A+ A 33% 24% 43% C+ A- B F+ C B F A+ D+
1.10 53% 33% 31% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.2 .37 16% .44 72% .31 0.91 56% 42% 24% -6 -1 0.88 19% 1.1 .22 19% .34 58% .20
Dec
6		 Idaho B- B D B+ B- 40% 34% 26% D C+ D F+ D- A+ A+ C A+ F C+ F F+ F 27% 22% 51% A- F B F+ C D- F C+ F
1.18 65% 35% 38% +4 -2 1.06 21% 0.9 .18 7% .52 73% .38 1.22 54% 64% 40% +9 -1 1.18 23% 1.1 .27 13% .49 72% .35
Dec
9		 Ball St. C- C- D+ A+ C 49% 18% 33% B+ C+ C- C- C- B- F+ F+ F C+ F+ A A+ B 39% 16% 45% D B- F C- D- F D- C+ D
1.07 58% 33% 44% +4 +1 1.12 33% 1.0 .33 17% .21 73% .15 1.01 63% 25% 18% -11 +1 0.82 33% 0.9 .30 11% .35 70% .25
Dec
15		 Wyoming C D F B+ C- 43% 8% 49% B C D- A C A+ C+ B+ B- F F F+ D+ F 36% 20% 44% A- F D F F C C- F D-
1.08 52% 0% 38% -3 +2 1.00 19% 1.1 .22 10% .40 75% .30 1.30 78% 50% 36% +11 0 1.24 39% 1.6 .61 16% .36 85% .30
Dec
19		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee A- C+ B A- B 38% 13% 50% C+ B B- B B B+ F F F F A+ F F F 30% 28% 42% B F F A F+ C- C+ F D-
1.27 62% 43% 39% +6 +1 1.16 33% 1.3 .42 13% .25 53% .13 1.28 25% 67% 50% +8 -2 1.15 50% 0.8 .42 15% .26 87% .22
Dec
29		 Arizona C+ F+ F A C+ 41% 25% 34% A- B- C- A+ A C+ C+ F D+ C F A+ C- C+ 45% 18% 37% F+ C B+ F F+ B+ F D F
0.91 42% 27% 40% -6 0 0.88 21% 1.6 .33 18% .27 53% .14 1.27 78% 22% 37% +8 +1 1.20 36% 1.3 .48 18% .49 77% .38
Jan
1		 Nebraska Omaha B- B- F F D 55% 9% 36% A C- A A- A+ C- B A- B+ B- A C- B+ A 31% 17% 53% C A- A+ B A F C+ D+ C
1.20 66% 20% 26% -2 +3 1.04 41% 1.2 .49 14% .35 81% .28 0.99 44% 40% 29% -8 0 0.86 16% 1.0 .16 6% .29 74% .21
Jan
3		 North Dakota B+ D+ F A+ C 46% 10% 44% B- C+ B- B B+ B- C+ A B F F F+ D+ F 28% 13% 58% B- F F C- F C- B- F D
1.25 57% 20% 45% +5 +2 1.16 38% 1.2 .47 19% .41 78% .32 1.29 67% 43% 35% +5 0 1.11 47% 1.1 .50 14% .30 89% .27
Jan
8		 Denver C+ A F C- C- 44% 27% 29% D- D+ B+ B A- C A A- A+ C- A+ D D- C 23% 36% 41% A B- D- B+ C D- B+ A+ A
1.25 74% 21% 33% +2 0 1.06 41% 1.2 .50 13% .41 76% .31 1.14 38% 45% 39% +1 -3 0.98 34% 1.0 .34 12% .24 67% .16
Jan
14		 North Dakota St. D A F C+ C 33% 16% 51% C+ C F+ F F B D+ F D- D+ C D- F F 24% 22% 55% C+ F A+ A+ A+ D B+ F C+
1.00 75% 25% 36% +5 0 1.12 22% 0.3 .06 17% .22 67% .15 1.17 58% 45% 50% +15 -1 1.29 20% 0.5 .10 14% .22 83% .18
Jan
17		 UMKC A+ A A+ A+ A+ 49% 20% 31% C+ A+ C C C B+ C F D C- D A+ C- C+ 35% 24% 41% D+ C+ C- F F D B- C- C+
1.38 72% 80% 44% +20 +1 1.43 37% 1.0 .37 14% .27 60% .16 0.95 61% 8% 33% -6 -1 0.88 30% 1.3 .38 17% .24 69% .17
Jan
22		 St. Thomas D F+ A+ D C 46% 15% 38% B- C D+ F+ D C- D F F B D A+ C+ B- 42% 4% 53% D C+ D+ F D- A F D F
0.99 50% 75% 30% 0 +1 1.04 27% 1.0 .27 19% .23 46% .11 1.06 68% 0% 33% +2 +2 1.11 23% 1.1 .26 20% .43 75% .32
Jan
28		 Nebraska Omaha D- A F F F 35% 22% 43% D+ F B F C- D- A+ D+ A D+ F+ F A+ C- 34% 25% 42% B- C C+ F D- F D- F F
1.01 72% 27% 18% -7 0 0.86 34% 0.8 .27 17% .43 72% .31 1.14 67% 54% 23% 0 -1 1.00 24% 1.5 .36 11% .35 82% .29
Jan
31		 Oral Roberts B+ D A+ A+ A 57% 12% 31% B+ A C- A+ A- C+ F F F C A+ F C B+ 26% 14% 60% B- B+ B- B- B- F F C+ F
1.30 52% 71% 56% +10 +2 1.28 30% 1.6 .48 14% .19 58% .11 0.98 20% 50% 32% -10 0 0.82 24% 0.9 .22 12% .42 70% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 St. Thomas D- A+ A+ F C 39% 7% 54% B C+ F+ F F A- C+ C- C F+ F+ F F+ F+ 28% 11% 61% B+ D A+ A+ A+ F A F B+
0.99 78% 100% 20% 0 +2 1.07 21% 0.4 .09 14% .28 73% .21 1.23 73% 50% 39% +11 0 1.24 10% 0.0 .00 8% .21 83% .17
Feb
7		 South Dakota F F C+ A+ D+ 40% 35% 25% F D- F F F B F A F+ B- B D+ D D+ 30% 19% 51% B D+ A+ C A D- A+ A+ A+
0.96 45% 42% 43% 0 -2 0.98 12% 1.0 .12 14% .18 82% .15 0.98 50% 40% 37% 0 0 1.02 16% 1.0 .16 14% .22 62% .13



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 8.1 6.8 15.2 3rd
4th 0.2 10.2 14.4 1.3 26.2 4th
5th 0.1 5.9 17.4 1.9 25.3 5th
6th 0.1 3.0 13.3 3.8 0.0 20.2 6th
7th 0.2 2.2 6.9 3.6 0.0 13.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.2 2.3 10.0 23.1 31.8 24.4 8.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 8.2% 16.8% 16.8% 14.4 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 6.8
9-7 24.4% 15.1% 15.1% 15.6 1.6 2.1 20.7
8-8 31.8% 12.0% 12.0% 16.0 0.2 3.7 28.0
7-9 23.1% 9.2% 9.2% 16.0 2.1 21.0
6-10 10.0% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.6 9.4
5-11 2.3% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.1 2.2
4-12 0.2% 0.2
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 15.7 88.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 14.4 5.1 47.8 46.4 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.0%