South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -2.7 209
Results Rating -6.0 260
Consistency 0.16 254
Pace 68.5 177
Improvement -2.8 286

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 178 C C C+ D C+
Defense C- 237 C- C D+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 138 C 58% 179 +0.7 149
2 Pt. Jumpers 35% 216 C 39% 143 -0.3 194
Three Pointers 41% 185 C 34% 182 -0.1 182
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 158 C +0.0 175
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 163
Second Chance C- 28.7% 231 C+ 1.06 136 C 0.30 196
Turnovers from Steals C 9.3% 166
Other Turnovers B- 6.4% 76
Turnovers C+ 15.8% 117
Freethrows D 0.27 292 C- 71% 228 D 0.19 293
Total Offense C -0.7 178

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 54% 90 B- 9.5% 103
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 272 D+ 6.7% 282
Three Pointers D- 76% 329 B 0.4% 64
Total C 55% 198 C+ 5.3% 143

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 307 C- 60% 236 -2.0 108
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 256 D 42% 310 -0.4 158
Three Pointers 48% 21 C 34% 195 +3.7 332
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 161 C- +1.5 240
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 226
Second Chance B- 28.1% 90 D+ 1.09 272 C 0.31 167
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.4% 259
Other Turnovers C- 6.9% 240
Turnovers D+ 15.3% 267
Freethrows C+ 0.30 162 D+ 74% 291 C 0.22 184
Total Defense C- -2.1 237

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 281 D+ 8.1% 299
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 137 D+ 3.5% 264
Three Pointers C+ 81% 107 D- -0.1% 359
Total C- 58% 243 D- 3.3% 337

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 191 17.3 196
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 258 0.15 110
Consistency 0.15 339 0.11 122
Improvement -0.2 193 -2.6 312

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 236 210 181
Results Rating Rank 280 256 190
Conference Record 6 - 10 7 - 9 8 - 8
Conference Finish 7 6 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10% 10% 7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 50% 59% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four7% 7% 7%
First Round7% 8% 5%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: UMKC (Away) - 85.0% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 60 - 7
Quad 31 - 51 - 12
Quad 411 - 512 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 164 Merrimack W 75 - 66 41% +2  58% 1 - 0 B +9 C +1 C+ C- D+ A- +8 A B+ C
 Sun, Nov 9 93 @Northern Iowa L 58 - 65 14% -4  8% 1 - 1 C+ +2 D+ -3 B- B F B +4 D+ A B
 Wed, Nov 12 88 @Oregon L 69 - 83 13% -5  11% 1 - 2 C- -5 C- -2 C+ C B- C- -3 D+ C+ D-
 Fri, Nov 21 292 Georgia St. W 105 - 58 78% +28  99% 2 - 2 A+ +36 A+ +24 A+ D B A+ +11 B A+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 95 Utah Valley L 52 - 75 21% -10  0% 2 - 3 F+ -17 F -19 F D F C+ +2 B- F+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 121 UC Irvine L 52 - 64 30% -7  6% 2 - 4 D -9 F -20 F F+ D A+ +11 B A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 305 @Northern Arizona W 75 - 62 61% +6  76% 3 - 4 B- +8 D+ -4 F C C A+ +12 A C+ B
 Sat, Dec 6 186 Idaho L 81 - 84 57% +1  55% 3 - 5 D+ -8 B- +5 C+ D- A+ F -12 F C D-
 Tue, Dec 9 312 @Ball St. W 68 - 64 63% +0  35% 4 - 5 C- -2 C -0 B- C- C+ C -1 B- F+ F
 Mon, Dec 15 100 Wyoming L 72 - 87 23% -13  0% 4 - 6 D -10 C +1 C C- A+ F -12 F F C
 Fri, Dec 19 274 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 87 - 88 64% -1  39% 4 - 7 D+ -7 B+ +9 B- B B+ F -16 F D- C-
 Mon, Dec 29 3 @Arizona L 71 - 99 1% -16  0% 4 - 8 C -1 C+ +2 B- A C+ C -0 C- D- A-
 Thu, Jan 1 239 Nebraska Omaha W 84 - 69 67% +6  86% 5 - 8 1 - 0 B- +8 C+ +3 C- A+ C B +5 A A F
 Sat, Jan 3 293 @North Dakota L 87 - 90 OT 58% -1  24% 5 - 9 1 - 1 D+ -8 B +7 C+ B C+ F -15 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 226 Denver W 87 - 79 65% +1  50% 6 - 9 2 - 1 C +1 C+ +3 D+ A- C C- -2 B- C D
 Wed, Jan 14 130 @North Dakota St. L 65 - 76 23% -8  1% 6 - 10 2 - 2 D+ -6 D+ -3 C+ F B D+ -3 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 360 UMKC W 90 - 62 93% +6  82% 7 - 10 3 - 2 B +8 A+ +15 A+ C B+ D -5 C F D
 Thu, Jan 22 127 @St. Thomas L 69 - 74 22% +1  53% 7 - 11 3 - 3 C +0 D -5 C D D+ B+ +6 B- D A
 Wed, Jan 28 239 @Nebraska Omaha L 71 - 80 44% -2  19% 7 - 12 3 - 4 D -10 D- -7 F D+ D- D+ -3 C+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 333 Oral Roberts W 95 - 72 86% +14  94% 8 - 12 4 - 4 B +8 A- +9 A+ A- B- C- -2 B+ B- F
 Wed, Feb 4 127 St. Thomas L 62 - 77 41% -5  21% 8 - 13 4 - 5 F+ -16 F+ -8 C+ F B+ F+ -9 D A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 291 South Dakota L 67 - 68 78% -3  22% 8 - 14 4 - 6 D- -12 F -14 D- F B- C+ +2 D+ A D-
 Thu, Feb 12 226 @Denver L 61 - 79 42% -12  1% 8 - 15 4 - 7 F -19 F -14 F D- A D- -7 F+ D- D+
 Sat, Feb 14 333 @Oral Roberts W 87 - 69 71% +5  71% 9 - 15 5 - 7 B +9 A +14 C A+ C D+ -3 B F A-
 Wed, Feb 18 130 North Dakota St. L 66 - 74 43% -2  18% 9 - 16 5 - 8 D -9 D- -6 C F A- D+ -3 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 293 North Dakota W 91 - 83 78% -3  10% 10 - 16 6 - 8 C- -3 A +13 C A A+ F -16 F A+ F
 Thu, Feb 26 360 @UMKC W 79 - 68 85%
 Sat, Feb 28 291 @South Dakota W 79 - 77 58%
Totals 11 - 17 7 - 9 -3 C -1 C C C+ C- -2 C C- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C C C C 40% 35% 41% C+ C C- C+ C C+ D C- D C- C- D C C- 34% 18% 48% C C- B- D+ C D+ C+ D+ C
1.08 58% 39% 34% 0 0 1.03 29% 1.1 .30 16% .27 71% .19 1.12 60% 42% 34% +1 0 1.05 28% 1.1 .31 15% .30 74% .20
Nov
3		 Merrimack C D- D- A+ C+ 44% 23% 33% C+ C+ C- C- C- D+ A+ B+ A+ A- A+ A- A+ 49% 0% 51% F A C A+ B+ C F D+ F
1.07 48% 33% 41% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.0 .39 20% .46 77% .36 0.94 38% 28% -15 +3 0.80 23% 0.7 .15 16% .46 81% .37
Nov
9		 Northern Iowa D+ A C F B- 39% 20% 41% C B- A+ D- B F B F C+ B D+ A+ D+ C- 57% 5% 39% F D+ A- A+ A B F A+ D
0.91 69% 38% 24% -2 0 0.98 40% 0.8 .30 27% .30 64% .19 1.02 64% 0% 35% +2 +3 1.14 16% 0.8 .13 17% .38 55% .21
Nov
12		 Oregon C- D+ A+ D B- 26% 31% 43% D C+ F A+ C B- D+ F D- C- F+ D C- D 16% 16% 67% A D+ A+ F C+ D- A- C- B+
0.98 50% 53% 30% 0 -2 0.98 19% 1.3 .25 16% .23 64% .15 1.18 67% 44% 35% +4 -1 1.07 24% 1.6 .38 14% .26 75% .20
Nov
21		 Georgia St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 9% 49% B A+ C- F D B A- B+ A A+ F B- A+ A- 24% 12% 63% F B A+ C+ A+ C F A+ F
1.47 77% 80% 50% +24 +2 1.53 33% 0.8 .26 14% .36 77% .28 0.81 67% 33% 19% -12 0 0.78 11% 1.0 .11 17% .45 67% .30
Nov
25		 Utah Valley F F A+ F F 34% 16% 50% C+ F B F D F C B- C C+ B A- D B- 48% 14% 38% C+ B- D+ F+ F+ B A F B
0.74 40% 71% 18% -13 0 0.77 34% 0.7 .24 30% .33 75% .25 1.07 54% 29% 37% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.2 .48 23% .20 82% .17
Nov
26		 UC Irvine F D- F F F 43% 21% 36% B F F C- F+ D B F C- A+ F A+ A+ B+ 37% 21% 42% D+ B A- A+ A+ A+ F F F
0.70 43% 27% 16% -18 0 0.66 21% 0.9 .19 20% .29 59% .17 0.86 69% 22% 22% -7 0 0.88 25% 0.6 .16 27% .52 75% .39
Dec
3		 Northern Arizona D+ D- D- D- F 37% 12% 51% C F C- B- C C A+ C- A+ A+ C+ D A+ A 33% 24% 43% B- A B+ F+ C+ B F+ A+ C-
1.10 53% 33% 31% -5 +1 0.94 32% 1.2 .37 16% .44 72% .31 0.91 56% 42% 24% -6 -1 0.88 19% 1.1 .22 19% .34 58% .20
Dec
6		 Idaho B- B D+ B+ B- 40% 34% 26% D+ C+ D F D- A+ A+ C- A+ F C+ F F+ F 27% 22% 51% A F B+ F+ C D- F C F
1.18 65% 35% 38% +4 -2 1.06 21% 0.9 .18 7% .52 73% .38 1.22 54% 64% 40% +9 -1 1.18 23% 1.1 .27 13% .49 72% .35
Dec
9		 Ball St. C C- D A+ B- 49% 18% 33% B B- C- C- C- C+ F+ F+ F C F+ A A+ B 39% 16% 45% D+ B- F D+ F+ F F+ C+ D-
1.07 58% 33% 44% +4 +1 1.12 33% 1.0 .33 17% .21 73% .15 1.01 63% 25% 18% -11 +1 0.82 33% 0.9 .30 11% .35 70% .25
Dec
15		 Wyoming C D F B+ C- 43% 8% 49% B C D- A- C- A+ B- B+ B F F D- D+ F 36% 20% 44% A- F D F F C D+ F F+
1.08 52% 0% 38% -3 +2 1.00 19% 1.1 .22 10% .40 75% .30 1.30 78% 50% 36% +11 0 1.24 39% 1.6 .61 16% .36 85% .30
Dec
19		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee B+ C+ B- B+ B 38% 13% 50% C+ B- B- B B B+ F F F F A+ F F F 30% 28% 42% B+ F F A+ D- C- C+ F D
1.27 62% 43% 39% +6 +1 1.16 33% 1.3 .42 13% .25 53% .13 1.28 25% 67% 50% +8 -2 1.15 50% 0.8 .42 15% .26 87% .22
Dec
29		 Arizona C+ F F A+ C+ 41% 25% 34% A- B- C- A+ A C+ C+ F D C F A+ C- C 45% 18% 37% F+ C- B F D- A- F D F
0.91 42% 27% 40% -7 0 0.88 21% 1.6 .33 18% .27 53% .14 1.27 78% 22% 37% +8 +1 1.20 36% 1.3 .48 18% .49 77% .38
Jan
1		 Nebraska Omaha C+ B- F F D 55% 9% 36% A C- A A- A+ C B+ A A B A+ C- A- A+ 31% 17% 53% C A A+ C+ A F C C- C
1.20 66% 20% 26% -2 +3 1.04 41% 1.2 .49 14% .35 81% .28 0.99 44% 40% 29% -8 0 0.86 16% 1.0 .16 6% .29 74% .21
Jan
3		 North Dakota B D+ F A+ C+ 46% 10% 44% B- C+ B- B- B C+ B- A- B+ F F F+ D+ F 28% 13% 58% B F F C F C- B- F D
1.25 57% 20% 45% +5 +2 1.16 38% 1.2 .47 19% .41 78% .32 1.29 67% 43% 35% +4 0 1.11 47% 1.1 .50 14% .30 89% .27
Jan
8		 Denver C+ A F C- C- 44% 27% 29% D D+ A- B A- C A+ A- A+ C- A+ D D- C+ 23% 36% 41% A B- D B+ C D B+ A+ A
1.25 74% 21% 33% +2 0 1.06 41% 1.2 .50 13% .41 76% .31 1.14 38% 45% 39% +1 -3 0.98 34% 1.0 .34 12% .24 67% .16
Jan
14		 North Dakota St. D+ A F C+ C+ 33% 16% 51% C+ C+ F+ F F B D F D- D+ C D- F F 24% 22% 55% B- F A+ A+ A+ D B+ F C+
1.00 75% 25% 36% +5 0 1.12 22% 0.3 .06 17% .22 67% .15 1.17 58% 45% 50% +15 -1 1.29 20% 0.5 .10 14% .22 83% .18
Jan
17		 UMKC A+ A A+ A+ A+ 49% 20% 31% C A+ C C- C B+ C F D D D A+ C- C 35% 24% 41% C- C D+ F F D C+ D+ C+
1.38 72% 80% 44% +20 +1 1.43 37% 1.0 .37 14% .27 60% .16 0.95 61% 8% 33% -6 -1 0.88 30% 1.3 .38 17% .24 69% .17
Jan
22		 St. Thomas D F+ A+ D C 46% 15% 38% C+ C D+ F+ D D+ D F F B+ D A+ C+ B 42% 4% 53% D B- D+ F D A F F+ F
0.99 50% 75% 30% 0 +1 1.04 27% 1.0 .27 19% .23 46% .11 1.06 68% 0% 33% +2 +2 1.11 23% 1.1 .26 20% .43 75% .32
Jan
28		 Nebraska Omaha D- A F F F 35% 22% 43% D+ F B F D+ D- A+ C- A+ D+ D- F A+ C+ 34% 25% 42% B- C+ C+ F F+ F F+ F F
1.01 72% 27% 18% -8 0 0.86 34% 0.8 .27 17% .43 72% .31 1.14 67% 54% 23% 0 -1 1.00 24% 1.5 .36 11% .35 82% .29
Jan
31		 Oral Roberts A- D A+ A+ A+ 57% 12% 31% B A+ C- A+ A- B- F F F C- A+ F C B+ 26% 14% 60% B- B+ B- C+ B- F F B- F
1.30 52% 71% 56% +10 +2 1.28 30% 1.6 .48 14% .19 58% .11 0.98 20% 50% 32% -10 0 0.82 24% 0.9 .22 12% .42 70% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 St. Thomas F+ A+ A+ F C 39% 7% 54% B C+ F+ F F B+ C+ C- C F+ F+ F D- D- 28% 11% 61% B+ D A+ A+ A+ F A F B
0.99 78% 100% 20% 0 +2 1.07 21% 0.4 .09 14% .28 73% .21 1.23 73% 50% 39% +11 0 1.24 10% 0.0 .00 8% .21 83% .17
Feb
7		 South Dakota F F C+ A+ D+ 40% 35% 25% F D- F F+ F B- F A- F C+ B+ D+ D- D 30% 19% 51% B D+ A+ C- A D- A+ A+ A+
0.96 45% 42% 43% 0 -2 0.98 12% 1.0 .12 14% .18 82% .15 0.98 50% 40% 37% 0 0 1.02 16% 1.0 .16 14% .22 62% .13
Feb
12		 Denver F F A+ F F 48% 22% 29% C- F F A D- A F A+ F D- A+ F F F+ 31% 24% 45% D+ F+ F C+ D- D+ B- B B
0.96 43% 62% 12% -12 0 0.79 23% 1.3 .30 8% .17 90% .15 1.25 40% 50% 50% +8 -1 1.16 38% 1.1 .41 13% .27 73% .20
Feb
14		 Oral Roberts A C- F A C 49% 12% 39% C+ C B- A+ A+ C F+ A+ C+ D+ B A+ B+ B+ 45% 11% 45% F+ B F F F A- C+ F D
1.32 54% 17% 42% 0 +2 1.06 37% 2.1 .77 15% .25 93% .23 1.04 48% 20% 29% -10 +2 0.85 37% 1.5 .57 23% .27 93% .25
Feb
18		 North Dakota St. D- A+ F C C 35% 20% 45% C C F F F A- C F D- D+ F F+ A+ D 33% 27% 41% B- D+ A+ C A+ F F B- F
1.01 78% 20% 35% +4 0 1.10 19% 0.4 .08 15% .25 57% .14 1.13 81% 46% 25% +4 -1 1.08 13% 1.0 .13 8% .43 69% .30
Feb
21		 North Dakota A D- F A+ C+ 35% 12% 53% C- C A- B+ A A+ B+ A+ A+ F F F F F 35% 11% 54% C F A+ A A+ F A+ B- A+
1.38 53% 17% 46% +5 +1 1.14 42% 1.3 .55 12% .43 84% .36 1.26 74% 50% 41% +13 +1 1.30 19% 0.8 .16 11% .20 67% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 6.7 6.7 4th
5th 23.2 23.2 5th
6th 26.4 19.9 46.3 6th
7th 6.9 16.9 23.8 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 6.9 43.3 49.8 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 49.8% 10.7% 10.7% 15.9 0.5 4.8 44.5
7-9 43.3% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.0 3.8 39.6
6-10 6.9% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.4 6.4
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 15.9 90.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.3% 100.0% 15.9 9.4 90.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 19.6%
Lose Out 4.8%