South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#70
Expected Predictive Rating+9.4#64
Pace78.0#25
Improvement-1.2#271

Offense
Total Offense+8.7#14
First Shot+9.0#10
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#200
Layup/Dunks+4.4#49
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#112
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#70
Freethrows-0.3#204
Improvement+0.7#104

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#227
First Shot-0.9#202
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#226
Layups/Dunks-4.4#313
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#149
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#185
Freethrows+2.9#24
Improvement-1.9#324
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.6% 1.7% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.3% 55.6% 46.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.4% 1.4% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.3 12.3 13.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.8% 99.9%
Conference Champion 76.3% 76.8% 62.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round55.1% 55.4% 46.5%
Second Round14.3% 14.5% 8.5%
Sweet Sixteen4.3% 4.4% 2.8%
Elite Eight1.0% 0.9% 1.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho (Away) - 96.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 12 - 2
Quad 36 - 38 - 5
Quad 417 - 125 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 213   Bradley W 81-65 87%     1 - 0 +10.8 -3.8 +12.5
  Nov 12, 2021 13   @ Alabama L 88-104 15%     1 - 1 +2.5 +11.9 -7.3
  Nov 14, 2021 158   @ Stephen F. Austin W 83-71 64%     2 - 1 +15.5 +5.8 +8.8
  Nov 17, 2021 181   Montana St. W 91-74 85%     3 - 1 +13.0 +11.5 +1.0
  Nov 22, 2021 92   Nevada W 102-75 55%     4 - 1 +32.9 +16.5 +12.7
  Nov 23, 2021 145   Washington L 76-87 71%     4 - 2 -9.4 +1.5 -10.3
  Nov 24, 2021 115   George Mason W 80-76 65%     5 - 2 +7.2 +12.5 -5.1
  Nov 30, 2021 242   Prairie View W 99-90 91%     6 - 2 +1.8 +10.7 -10.0
  Dec 08, 2021 351   @ Idaho W 93-74 96%    
  Dec 11, 2021 60   Washington St. L 80-81 49%    
  Dec 15, 2021 93   @ Missouri St. L 83-85 44%    
  Dec 20, 2021 215   UMKC W 81-69 86%    
  Dec 22, 2021 170   Oral Roberts W 93-83 83%    
  Dec 30, 2021 182   @ North Dakota St. W 78-73 69%    
  Jan 01, 2022 330   @ North Dakota W 89-74 92%    
  Jan 08, 2022 243   South Dakota W 88-74 91%    
  Jan 13, 2022 335   @ Nebraska Omaha W 89-73 93%    
  Jan 15, 2022 326   Denver W 89-69 96%    
  Jan 20, 2022 329   @ St. Thomas W 92-77 91%    
  Jan 22, 2022 191   @ Western Illinois W 87-81 70%    
  Jan 27, 2022 330   North Dakota W 92-71 97%    
  Jan 29, 2022 182   North Dakota St. W 81-70 84%    
  Feb 05, 2022 243   @ South Dakota W 85-77 77%    
  Feb 10, 2022 326   @ Denver W 86-72 90%    
  Feb 12, 2022 335   Nebraska Omaha W 92-70 98%    
  Feb 17, 2022 191   Western Illinois W 90-78 85%    
  Feb 19, 2022 329   St. Thomas W 95-74 97%    
  Feb 24, 2022 170   @ Oral Roberts W 90-86 65%    
  Feb 26, 2022 215   @ UMKC W 78-72 72%    
Projected Record 23 - 6 15 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.6 6.5 15.8 21.7 20.4 10.1 76.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.7 5.1 3.2 0.8 15.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 1.7 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.1 2.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.0 8.4 12.1 19.1 22.5 20.4 10.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 10.1    10.1
17-1 100.0% 20.4    20.2 0.3
16-2 96.3% 21.7    19.6 2.1 0.0
15-3 82.9% 15.8    10.8 4.7 0.3
14-4 53.8% 6.5    3.3 2.5 0.6 0.1
13-5 19.0% 1.6    0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0
12-6 4.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 76.3% 76.3 64.2 10.4 1.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 10.1% 76.3% 72.4% 3.9% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.7 1.7 0.6 0.0 2.4 14.1%
17-1 20.4% 67.1% 66.2% 1.0% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 2.6 6.9 3.0 0.5 6.7 2.9%
16-2 22.5% 60.0% 59.9% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.6 5.6 5.6 1.7 0.0 9.0 0.3%
15-3 19.1% 50.5% 50.5% 0.0% 13.0 0.1 2.5 4.8 2.0 0.2 9.5 0.0%
14-4 12.1% 44.9% 44.9% 13.5 0.5 2.1 2.3 0.5 6.7
13-5 8.4% 39.6% 39.6% 13.8 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.7 0.0 5.1
12-6 4.0% 31.9% 31.9% 14.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.7
11-7 2.1% 22.7% 22.7% 14.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.6
10-8 0.9% 21.7% 21.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
9-9 0.3% 8.6% 8.6% 15.0 0.0 0.2
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11 0.0% 47.6% 47.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 55.3% 54.7% 0.6% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.1 5.0 17.3 17.4 9.1 2.0 0.1 44.7 1.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.6% 100.0% 6.6 0.1 3.1 15.8 20.0 19.4 14.6 6.3 5.3 5.0 8.0 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 15.6% 9.1 7.1 7.8 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 47.6% 10.4 8.1 4.4 8.1 15.5 11.4