South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#170
Expected Predictive Rating-4.2#237
Pace71.4#127
Improvement-2.3#311

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#165
First Shot+0.4#166
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#209
Layup/Dunks-0.2#194
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#126
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#136
Freethrows-1.7#290
Improvement+1.5#75

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#191
First Shot-1.9#233
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#92
Layups/Dunks+2.1#103
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#246
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#250
Freethrows-1.8#299
Improvement-3.8#356
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.6% 32.0% 20.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 13.8 14.8
.500 or above 65.4% 96.7% 65.2%
.500 or above in Conference 90.6% 99.3% 90.6%
Conference Champion 25.1% 41.2% 25.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.0% 0.7%
First Four2.0% 0.0% 2.0%
First Round19.8% 32.0% 19.7%
Second Round0.5% 2.6% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona (Away) - 0.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 10
Quad 413 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 262 Merrimack W 75-66 68%     1 - 0 +3.4 +0.6 +2.7
  Sun, Nov 9 94 @Northern Iowa L 58-65 18%     1 - 1 +2.0 +0.3 +0.9
  Wed, Nov 12 55 @Oregon L 69-83 11%     1 - 2 -1.7 +0.3 -1.9
  Fri, Nov 21 330 Georgia St. W 105-58 87%     2 - 2 +33.9 +25.3 +7.5
  Tue, Nov 25 85 Utah Valley L 52-75 24%     2 - 3 -16.4 -15.6 -0.8
  Wed, Nov 26 132 UC Irvine L 52-64 40%     2 - 4 -10.2 -18.7 +9.1
  Wed, Dec 3 288 @Northern Arizona W 75-62 61%     3 - 4 +9.3 +3.2 +6.4
  Sat, Dec 6 173 Idaho L 81-84 63%     3 - 5 -7.1 +6.5 -13.6
  Tue, Dec 9 305 @Ball St. W 68-64 67%     4 - 5 -1.1 +1.1 -1.8
  Mon, Dec 15 103 Wyoming L 72-87 30%     4 - 6 -10.3 +4.2 -15.3
  Fri, Dec 19 210 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 87-88 60%     4 - 7 -4.2 +12.3 -16.6
  Mon, Dec 29 2 @Arizona L 64-91 1%    
  Thu, Jan 1 229 Nebraska Omaha W 80-74 72%    
  Sat, Jan 3 333 @North Dakota W 79-72 74%    
  Thu, Jan 8 290 Denver W 85-76 80%    
  Wed, Jan 14 156 @North Dakota St. L 74-78 35%    
  Sat, Jan 17 342 UMKC W 81-67 90%    
  Thu, Jan 22 136 @St. Thomas L 74-79 31%    
  Wed, Jan 28 229 @Nebraska Omaha W 77-76 50%    
  Sat, Jan 31 303 Oral Roberts W 81-71 83%    
  Wed, Feb 4 136 St. Thomas W 77-76 52%    
  Sat, Feb 7 291 South Dakota W 87-78 80%    
  Thu, Feb 12 290 @Denver W 82-79 60%    
  Sat, Feb 14 303 @Oral Roberts W 78-74 65%    
  Wed, Feb 18 156 North Dakota St. W 77-75 57%    
  Sat, Feb 21 333 North Dakota W 82-69 87%    
  Thu, Feb 26 342 @UMKC W 78-70 76%    
  Sat, Feb 28 291 @South Dakota W 84-81 61%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.1 6.2 8.1 5.7 2.4 0.4 25.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.2 9.1 8.2 2.9 0.3 25.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 5.0 9.2 5.7 1.2 0.0 21.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.9 6.0 2.7 0.3 13.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.4 1.3 0.1 7.4 5th
6th 0.2 1.1 1.9 0.6 0.0 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.7 5.0 8.7 12.9 16.5 17.1 15.6 11.0 6.0 2.4 0.4 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
15-1 100.0% 2.4    2.3 0.1
14-2 94.7% 5.7    4.9 0.8 0.0
13-3 73.7% 8.1    5.2 2.7 0.2
12-4 39.8% 6.2    2.4 2.9 0.8 0.0
11-5 12.0% 2.1    0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 25.1% 25.1 15.6 7.4 1.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.4% 48.1% 48.1% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
15-1 2.4% 40.6% 40.6% 13.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.4
14-2 6.0% 38.2% 38.2% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.5 0.0 3.7
13-3 11.0% 32.0% 32.0% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.5 0.1 7.5
12-4 15.6% 27.3% 27.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.3 0.3 11.3
11-5 17.1% 21.7% 21.7% 15.0 0.0 0.5 2.5 0.7 13.4
10-6 16.5% 15.7% 15.7% 15.3 0.0 1.6 0.9 13.9
9-7 12.9% 12.2% 12.2% 15.8 0.3 1.2 11.4
8-8 8.7% 9.7% 9.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8 7.9
7-9 5.0% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.4 4.6
6-10 2.7% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.1 2.5
5-11 1.2% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-12 0.4% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-13 0.1% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 20.6% 20.6% 0.0% 14.8 0.1 1.5 5.3 8.9 4.7 79.5 0.0%