South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#120
Expected Predictive Rating+2.8#127
Pace73.2#69
Improvement+1.1#117

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#138
First Shot-0.1#180
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#101
Layup/Dunks+0.6#161
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#172
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#231
Freethrows+1.1#114
Improvement-0.3#210

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#134
First Shot-2.6#260
After Offensive Rebounds+3.7#8
Layups/Dunks+4.4#55
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#310
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.8#353
Freethrows+1.6#86
Improvement+1.4#67
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.4% 35.7% 28.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.4 13.9
.500 or above 94.1% 95.8% 86.2%
.500 or above in Conference 95.9% 96.5% 93.6%
Conference Champion 48.1% 49.9% 40.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.6%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round34.3% 35.6% 28.6%
Second Round3.8% 4.1% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.8% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Home) - 81.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 45 - 8
Quad 415 - 320 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 95   McNeese St. W 80-73 38%     1 - 0 +12.6 +5.1 +7.2
  Nov 08, 2024 304   Long Beach St. W 80-79 88%     2 - 0 -9.4 +2.9 -12.3
  Nov 14, 2024 180   Northern Colorado L 69-78 64%     2 - 1 -10.0 -7.3 -2.7
  Nov 20, 2024 250   Southern Miss W 101-76 83%     3 - 1 +17.3 +7.8 +5.2
  Nov 24, 2024 208   Duquesne W 71-60 68%     4 - 1 +8.7 +3.7 +5.7
  Nov 25, 2024 53   Boise St. L 82-83 25%     4 - 2 +8.7 +13.2 -4.5
  Nov 26, 2024 165   Missouri St. W 75-55 62%     5 - 2 +19.4 +8.9 +11.8
  Dec 04, 2024 190   @ Montana L 67-71 53%     5 - 3 -2.3 -7.6 +5.4
  Dec 07, 2024 239   Eastern Washington W 85-75 82%    
  Dec 11, 2024 48   @ Nevada L 66-77 16%    
  Dec 13, 2024 85   @ Colorado L 70-77 27%    
  Dec 29, 2024 5   @ Alabama L 74-93 4%    
  Jan 02, 2025 321   Denver W 84-70 91%    
  Jan 08, 2025 133   @ St. Thomas L 75-77 43%    
  Jan 11, 2025 306   @ Nebraska Omaha W 78-71 74%    
  Jan 16, 2025 289   North Dakota W 81-69 87%    
  Jan 18, 2025 261   Oral Roberts W 83-72 85%    
  Jan 23, 2025 292   @ UMKC W 74-68 71%    
  Jan 25, 2025 224   South Dakota W 87-78 79%    
  Jan 30, 2025 187   @ North Dakota St. W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 01, 2025 289   @ North Dakota W 78-72 71%    
  Feb 06, 2025 133   St. Thomas W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 13, 2025 306   Nebraska Omaha W 81-68 88%    
  Feb 15, 2025 224   @ South Dakota W 84-81 60%    
  Feb 19, 2025 187   North Dakota St. W 78-71 73%    
  Feb 23, 2025 292   UMKC W 77-65 86%    
  Feb 27, 2025 261   @ Oral Roberts W 80-75 68%    
  Mar 01, 2025 321   @ Denver W 81-73 77%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.2 9.1 13.5 12.7 7.0 2.2 48.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.1 8.9 8.0 3.1 0.5 25.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.6 3.2 0.6 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 3.1 1.4 0.2 6.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.7 0.1 3.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.3 4.6 7.7 11.6 15.4 17.6 16.7 13.1 7.0 2.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 2.2    2.2
15-1 100.0% 7.0    6.9 0.1
14-2 96.3% 12.7    11.4 1.3
13-3 81.1% 13.5    9.7 3.6 0.2
12-4 51.5% 9.1    4.4 3.9 0.8 0.0
11-5 20.5% 3.2    0.7 1.5 0.8 0.1
10-6 4.3% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 48.1% 48.1 35.4 10.5 2.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.2% 61.6% 61.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.9
15-1 7.0% 57.4% 57.4% 12.5 0.2 1.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.0
14-2 13.1% 49.5% 49.5% 12.9 0.0 1.9 3.4 1.1 0.1 6.6
13-3 16.7% 41.7% 41.7% 13.2 0.0 1.2 3.3 2.1 0.3 9.7
12-4 17.6% 34.7% 34.7% 13.6 0.4 2.3 2.6 0.8 0.0 11.5
11-5 15.4% 27.5% 27.5% 14.0 0.1 1.0 2.0 1.1 0.1 11.2
10-6 11.6% 24.1% 24.1% 14.4 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.2 8.8
9-7 7.7% 18.9% 18.9% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.2 6.2
8-8 4.6% 13.5% 13.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 4.0
7-9 2.3% 12.0% 12.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.0
6-10 1.0% 7.5% 7.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.0
5-11 0.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-12 0.2% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 34.4% 34.4% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 6.2 12.4 9.6 4.8 0.9 65.6 0.0%