South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#160
Expected Predictive Rating-1.9#197
Pace71.6#125
Improvement-1.4#279

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#193
First Shot+0.0#171
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#241
Layup/Dunks-1.1#222
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#83
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#183
Freethrows-0.7#224
Improvement+0.0#185

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#134
First Shot-0.5#190
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#79
Layups/Dunks+2.2#99
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#202
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#224
Freethrows-1.7#287
Improvement-1.4#287
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.6% 27.0% 22.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 81.2% 91.5% 76.4%
.500 or above in Conference 93.2% 95.6% 92.0%
Conference Champion 29.4% 35.4% 26.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four1.2% 0.6% 1.5%
First Round23.1% 26.8% 21.5%
Second Round1.0% 1.3% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wyoming (Neutral) - 31.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 43 - 9
Quad 414 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 271 Merrimack W 75-66 72%     1 - 0 +3.2 +0.3 +2.9
  Sun, Nov 9 93 @Northern Iowa L 58-65 21%     1 - 1 +1.6 -0.9 +1.8
  Wed, Nov 12 66 @Oregon L 69-83 15%     1 - 2 -2.7 +0.3 -2.9
  Fri, Nov 21 334 Georgia St. W 105-58 90%     2 - 2 +33.4 +25.2 +7.1
  Tue, Nov 25 84 Utah Valley L 52-75 26%     2 - 3 -16.2 -15.0 -1.2
  Wed, Nov 26 122 UC Irvine L 52-64 39%     2 - 4 -9.1 -16.8 +8.4
  Wed, Dec 3 270 @Northern Arizona W 75-62 61%     3 - 4 +10.2 +3.2 +7.3
  Sat, Dec 6 172 Idaho L 81-84 65%     3 - 5 -7.0 +5.2 -12.2
  Tue, Dec 9 306 @Ball St. W 68-64 69%     4 - 5 -1.1 +1.3 -2.0
  Mon, Dec 15 97 Wyoming L 73-78 31%    
  Fri, Dec 19 236 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 78-74 65%    
  Mon, Dec 29 3 @Arizona L 65-90 1%    
  Thu, Jan 1 234 Nebraska Omaha W 78-71 75%    
  Sat, Jan 3 342 @North Dakota W 78-69 79%    
  Thu, Jan 8 312 Denver W 85-73 87%    
  Wed, Jan 14 146 @North Dakota St. L 72-76 36%    
  Sat, Jan 17 346 UMKC W 79-64 91%    
  Thu, Jan 22 135 @St. Thomas L 72-77 33%    
  Wed, Jan 28 234 @Nebraska Omaha W 75-74 54%    
  Sat, Jan 31 300 Oral Roberts W 83-72 83%    
  Wed, Feb 4 135 St. Thomas W 75-74 55%    
  Sat, Feb 7 278 South Dakota W 86-77 80%    
  Thu, Feb 12 312 @Denver W 82-76 71%    
  Sat, Feb 14 300 @Oral Roberts W 80-75 67%    
  Wed, Feb 18 146 North Dakota St. W 75-73 58%    
  Sat, Feb 21 342 North Dakota W 81-66 90%    
  Thu, Feb 26 346 @UMKC W 76-67 79%    
  Sat, Feb 28 278 @South Dakota W 83-80 62%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 5.9 9.7 7.8 3.5 0.9 29.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.9 8.7 9.5 4.1 0.5 26.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.7 8.5 6.7 1.8 0.1 21.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.0 5.3 3.0 0.5 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.7 1.1 0.1 5.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.8 6.8 10.4 14.6 17.3 17.2 14.0 8.3 3.5 0.9 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
15-1 100.0% 3.5    3.4 0.1
14-2 93.6% 7.8    6.4 1.4 0.0
13-3 69.7% 9.7    5.8 3.6 0.4 0.0
12-4 34.1% 5.9    1.9 2.9 1.0 0.1
11-5 8.4% 1.5    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
10-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 29.4% 29.4 18.6 8.5 2.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.9% 53.2% 53.2% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-1 3.5% 46.2% 46.2% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.9
14-2 8.3% 41.0% 41.0% 13.8 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.6 0.0 4.9
13-3 14.0% 33.2% 33.2% 14.2 0.1 0.8 2.3 1.4 0.1 9.3
12-4 17.2% 28.4% 28.4% 14.5 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.4 0.3 12.3
11-5 17.3% 21.6% 21.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.0 0.6 13.6
10-6 14.6% 17.3% 17.3% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.6 0.7 12.1
9-7 10.4% 11.6% 11.6% 15.5 0.0 0.5 0.7 9.2
8-8 6.8% 9.4% 9.4% 15.8 0.1 0.5 6.2
7-9 3.8% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.3 3.6
6-10 1.9% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.1 1.8
5-11 0.8% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-12 0.3% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 23.6% 23.6% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.5 3.3 7.8 8.7 3.3 76.4 0.0%