South Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.2 #285
Expected Predictive Rating -6.3 #263
Pace 76.3 #27
Improvement -0.1 #191

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #202 C- C- C- A- C+
Defense #333 D F C- C+ F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #59 1.08 #272 +1.0 #139
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #180 0.72 #222 -0.4 #193
Three Pointers 36% #277 1.02 #188 -2.3 #269
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #226 -1.6 #224
Freethrows 0.36 #24 75% #80 0.27 #20
Second Chance 29.1% #229 1.00 #206 0.29 #224
Turnovers 17.4% #229
Total Offense -1.3 #202

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 55% #1 1.24 #286 -11.6 #365
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #340 0.90 #353 +1.2 #99
Three Pointers 31% #362 0.98 #121 +5.9 #5
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #316 -4.6 #316
Freethrows 0.28 #122 74% #287 0.21 #150
Second Chance 34.4% #320 1.24 #362 0.42 #357
Turnovers 15.8% #237
Total Defense -5.8 #333

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #144 3.8% #365
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.9% #243 5.1% #278
Possession Length 17.1 #151 16.1 #24
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #259 0.21 #311
Improvement +0.2 #167 -0.3 #206

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 2.8% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 11.5% 16.1% 3.2%
.500 or above in Conference 43.1% 55.1% 21.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four1.7% 1.6% 1.7%
First Round1.6% 1.9% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UMKC (Away) - 64.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 11
Quad 412 - 513 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 210 Utah Tech L 79 - 81 OT 46% -2  0 - 1 -8 -8 F D+ C- +1 C- B+ B-
 Wed, Nov 5 57 @Creighton L 76 - 92 5% -12  0 - 2 -4 +4 C D D -7 A- F A-
 Wed, Nov 12 332 Southern Indiana W 89 - 74 73% +9  1 - 2 +1 -1 D B+ F -0 B+ F C
 Sun, Nov 16 275 Western Michigan W 83 - 78 58% -3  2 - 2 -4 +5 C- C- A+ -9 F F A
 Thu, Nov 20 54 @Missouri L 68 - 102 4% -14  2 - 3 -21 -4 D+ A F -15 F F B+
 Sun, Nov 23 359 South Carolina St. W 82 - 81 84% +8  3 - 3 -17 +0 C D F -17 D- F D
 Sat, Nov 29 350 Air Force W 80 - 63 69% +11  4 - 3 +5 +6 C+ C F -1 A+ B- D-
 Wed, Dec 3 150 Portland St. L 71 - 77 32% -5  4 - 4 -8 -5 F A+ F -3 C B+ D
 Sat, Dec 6 193 @Northern Colorado L 87 - 89 OT 22% -2  4 - 5 -1 +6 C+ C F+ -7 F D B-
 Tue, Dec 9 112 @Wyoming L 79 - 106 11% -15  4 - 6 -20 +4 C- A D -23 F F D
 Sat, Dec 13 340 Prairie View W 97 - 85 76% +9  5 - 6 -2 +7 D+ B- B -11 F F+ B
 Sat, Dec 20 85 @Kansas St. L 76 - 106 7% -22  5 - 7 -20 +2 C- D+ B+ -20 F F C-
 Wed, Dec 31 138 @North Dakota St. L 61 - 84 14% -10  5 - 8 0 - 1 -19 -4 D D F -17 F+ F F+
 Wed, Jan 7 137 @St. Thomas L 86 - 99 14% -15  5 - 9 0 - 2 -9 +10 A- C- D- -18 F F D-
 Sat, Jan 10 288 Denver W 82 - 72 62% +2  6 - 9 1 - 2 -0 -2 B- F C +2 A D C+
 Thu, Jan 15 355 UMKC W 99 - 83 82% +17  7 - 9 2 - 2 -1 +12 B A B+ -14 F C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 282 @North Dakota L 80 - 96 38% -11  7 - 10 2 - 3 -20 +3 B- F B- -23 F F F
 Wed, Jan 21 241 @Nebraska Omaha W 68 - 64 29% -2  8 - 10 3 - 3 +3 -8 C F F +10 A- C B
 Sat, Jan 24 137 St. Thomas L 78 - 90 30% -2  8 - 11 3 - 4 -14 +4 D+ C- A+ -18 D- F C
 Thu, Jan 29 335 Oral Roberts W 77 - 69 75% +1  9 - 11 4 - 4 -6 -3 F C A+ -3 D+ A D-
 Sat, Jan 31 138 North Dakota St. L 84 - 89 OT 30% -7  9 - 12 4 - 5 -7 +5 C+ C A- -11 F D+ B+
 Wed, Feb 4 355 @UMKC W 81 - 77 64%
 Sat, Feb 7 175 @South Dakota St. L 78 - 87 20%
 Wed, Feb 11 282 North Dakota W 85 - 82 60%
 Thu, Feb 19 288 @Denver L 85 - 88 39%
 Sat, Feb 21 335 @Oral Roberts W 80 - 79 53%
 Wed, Feb 25 241 Nebraska Omaha W 81 - 80 52%
 Sat, Feb 28 175 South Dakota St. L 81 - 84 39%
Totals 12 - 16 7 - 9 -7 -1 C- C- C- -6 D F C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.9 3.2 0.5 6.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 5.1 7.3 1.2 0.0 14.1 4th
5th 0.6 7.7 13.5 3.0 0.0 24.7 5th
6th 0.1 3.0 13.8 18.5 5.6 0.1 41.2 6th
7th 1.1 4.8 5.1 1.1 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 9th
Total 1.6 8.0 19.5 27.9 24.4 13.3 4.7 0.7 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.7% 6.4% 6.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
10-6 4.7% 4.2% 4.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.5
9-7 13.3% 3.9% 3.9% 15.8 0.1 0.4 12.8
8-8 24.4% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6 23.7
7-9 27.9% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6 27.2
6-10 19.5% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.4 19.2
5-11 8.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 7.9
4-12 1.6% 1.6
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 15.9 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 0.8%