South Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.7#286
Expected Predictive Rating-5.5#269
Pace65.5#266
Improvement+0.3#154

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#203
First Shot+0.8#153
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#303
Layup/Dunks-5.8#355
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#107
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#37
Freethrows+1.2#90
Improvement-0.2#230

Defense
Total Defense-5.8#330
First Shot-6.0#342
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#157
Layups/Dunks-1.0#221
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#207
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#342
Freethrows-0.5#228
Improvement+0.5#112
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 2.7% 4.8% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 35.6% 51.8% 18.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.4% 2.9%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Home) - 51.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 31 - 52 - 10
Quad 49 - 711 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 57   @ Wisconsin L 59-85 5%     0 - 1 -14.2 -4.1 -10.8
  Nov 09, 2022 194   Lipscomb W 85-77 40%     1 - 1 +4.0 +12.9 -8.7
  Nov 17, 2022 55   @ Mississippi St. L 42-79 5%     1 - 2 -24.7 -14.7 -15.1
  Nov 22, 2022 363   LIU Brooklyn W 68-58 86%     2 - 2 -8.3 -13.6 +5.0
  Nov 23, 2022 82   Sam Houston St. L 49-80 11%     2 - 3 -24.4 -15.0 -12.0
  Nov 26, 2022 246   @ Coastal Carolina L 59-66 31%     2 - 4 -8.7 -4.2 -6.0
  Dec 03, 2022 81   BYU W 69-68 11%     3 - 4 +7.6 -1.1 +8.6
  Dec 06, 2022 168   @ Air Force L 58-79 18%     3 - 5 -18.2 -8.0 -12.0
  Dec 10, 2022 100   UC Irvine L 71-83 21%     3 - 6 -10.1 -0.4 -9.8
  Dec 14, 2022 246   Coastal Carolina L 86-87 52%     3 - 7 -8.1 +6.4 -14.5
  Dec 19, 2022 259   @ UMKC L 45-62 34%     3 - 8 0 - 1 -19.4 -15.9 -7.8
  Dec 29, 2022 266   St. Thomas W 92-84 56%     4 - 8 1 - 1 -0.3 +9.6 -10.1
  Dec 31, 2022 256   Western Illinois W 80-63 53%     5 - 8 2 - 1 +9.4 +3.2 +6.5
  Jan 05, 2023 322   @ North Dakota W 62-60 49%     6 - 8 3 - 1 -4.4 -9.8 +5.6
  Jan 07, 2023 241   @ North Dakota St. L 61-73 31%     6 - 9 3 - 2 -13.5 -12.4 -1.3
  Jan 14, 2023 200   South Dakota St. L 64-82 41%     6 - 10 3 - 3 -22.2 -8.5 -14.1
  Jan 19, 2023 318   Denver L 60-75 68%     6 - 11 3 - 4 -26.4 -16.3 -11.2
  Jan 21, 2023 310   Nebraska Omaha W 84-68 65%     7 - 11 4 - 4 +5.2 +13.5 -6.6
  Jan 26, 2023 256   @ Western Illinois L 72-75 33%     7 - 12 4 - 5 -5.1 +5.5 -11.0
  Jan 28, 2023 266   @ St. Thomas W 81-67 35%     8 - 12 5 - 5 +11.2 +5.9 +5.7
  Jan 30, 2023 69   @ Oral Roberts L 53-103 6%     8 - 13 5 - 6 -39.1 -19.1 -18.4
  Feb 02, 2023 241   North Dakota St. W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 04, 2023 322   North Dakota W 73-68 70%    
  Feb 11, 2023 200   @ South Dakota St. L 66-74 22%    
  Feb 16, 2023 310   @ Nebraska Omaha L 72-73 44%    
  Feb 18, 2023 318   @ Denver L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 23, 2023 69   Oral Roberts L 72-84 13%    
  Feb 25, 2023 259   UMKC W 66-65 56%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.2 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.1 1.1 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.6 7.6 4.3 0.2 12.7 4th
5th 0.3 8.1 11.3 0.9 0.0 20.7 5th
6th 0.1 5.8 15.4 2.8 0.0 24.1 6th
7th 0.0 3.0 13.0 5.2 0.1 21.4 7th
8th 0.5 5.2 3.9 0.2 9.7 8th
9th 1.1 1.6 0.2 2.9 9th
10th 0.2 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 1.9 9.9 23.1 29.5 22.9 10.0 2.5 0.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 2.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.4
10-8 10.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.9
9-9 22.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 22.8
8-10 29.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 29.3
7-11 23.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 23.1
6-12 9.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.9
5-13 1.9% 1.9
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 2.2% 16.0 2.2
Lose Out 1.9%