St. Thomas
Summit League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#133
Expected Predictive Rating+0.5#166
Pace68.9#183
Improvement+1.4#91

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#117
First Shot+6.6#34
After Offensive Rebound-4.6#356
Layup/Dunks+4.8#43
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#343
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#32
Freethrows-0.6#221
Improvement+1.9#49

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#187
First Shot+0.2#168
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#240
Layups/Dunks+2.4#95
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#160
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#201
Freethrows-2.3#313
Improvement-0.5#227
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.7% 29.6% 23.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.3
.500 or above 91.5% 94.7% 83.7%
.500 or above in Conference 93.2% 94.3% 90.5%
Conference Champion 37.9% 40.5% 31.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 0.9%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 1.1%
First Round27.4% 29.5% 22.5%
Second Round2.3% 2.7% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana (Home) - 71.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 44 - 7
Quad 415 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 310   @ Green Bay W 90-76 73%     1 - 0 +9.2 +10.7 -1.8
  Nov 10, 2024 81   @ Oklahoma St. L 71-80 22%     1 - 1 +0.6 -1.7 +2.9
  Nov 17, 2024 51   @ Arizona St. L 66-81 15%     1 - 2 -2.2 +0.7 -3.1
  Nov 22, 2024 142   Wofford L 73-81 52%     1 - 3 -7.0 -0.1 -7.1
  Nov 23, 2024 256   Portland St. W 91-65 74%     2 - 3 +20.7 +12.5 +7.7
  Nov 24, 2024 172   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 65-69 47%     2 - 4 -1.8 -8.0 +6.2
  Dec 02, 2024 359   Chicago St. W 98-76 95%     3 - 4 +4.7 +6.6 -4.5
  Dec 04, 2024 180   @ Northern Colorado W 87-75 48%     4 - 4 +14.0 +18.4 -3.7
  Dec 07, 2024 190   Montana W 77-71 71%    
  Dec 13, 2024 271   Western Michigan W 79-69 84%    
  Dec 21, 2024 267   @ Bowling Green W 76-72 66%    
  Dec 29, 2024 175   @ UC Riverside L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 02, 2025 187   @ North Dakota St. L 73-74 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 289   @ North Dakota W 77-72 68%    
  Jan 08, 2025 120   South Dakota St. W 77-75 57%    
  Jan 11, 2025 224   South Dakota W 86-78 77%    
  Jan 18, 2025 321   Denver W 82-69 89%    
  Jan 23, 2025 306   @ Nebraska Omaha W 77-71 70%    
  Jan 25, 2025 292   @ UMKC W 73-68 69%    
  Jan 29, 2025 261   Oral Roberts W 81-71 82%    
  Feb 01, 2025 187   North Dakota St. W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 06, 2025 120   @ South Dakota St. L 74-78 36%    
  Feb 08, 2025 321   @ Denver W 79-72 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 306   Nebraska Omaha W 80-68 86%    
  Feb 19, 2025 224   @ South Dakota W 83-81 57%    
  Feb 22, 2025 261   @ Oral Roberts W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 27, 2025 289   North Dakota W 80-69 84%    
  Mar 01, 2025 292   UMKC W 76-65 84%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.1 8.1 11.2 9.1 4.6 1.3 37.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.5 9.5 8.2 3.3 0.5 26.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.1 6.6 3.8 0.7 0.0 16.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.7 0.7 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.7 6.7 9.6 13.2 16.5 17.1 14.6 9.6 4.6 1.3 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
15-1 100.0% 4.6    4.5 0.1
14-2 94.7% 9.1    8.1 1.1
13-3 76.9% 11.2    7.9 3.2 0.2
12-4 47.6% 8.1    3.9 3.5 0.7 0.0
11-5 18.5% 3.1    0.7 1.4 0.8 0.1
10-6 3.6% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 37.9% 37.9 26.3 9.4 1.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.3% 55.8% 55.8% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6
15-1 4.6% 49.1% 49.1% 12.6 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.3
14-2 9.6% 45.9% 45.9% 13.1 0.0 1.0 2.2 1.2 0.1 5.2
13-3 14.6% 37.1% 37.1% 13.5 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.3 0.5 0.0 9.2
12-4 17.1% 32.0% 32.0% 14.0 0.1 1.4 2.6 1.3 0.1 11.6
11-5 16.5% 24.4% 24.4% 14.4 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.7 0.2 12.5
10-6 13.2% 19.1% 19.1% 14.8 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.3 10.7
9-7 9.6% 16.0% 16.0% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.4 8.1
8-8 6.7% 12.6% 12.6% 15.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 5.9
7-9 3.7% 9.3% 9.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.4
6-10 1.8% 6.2% 6.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.7
5-11 0.8% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-12 0.3% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 27.7% 27.7% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.8 7.4 8.9 6.5 1.8 72.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.2 0.6 1.8 3.5 0.6 1.2 48.0 43.3 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%