St. Thomas
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +2.5 128
Results Rating +1.2 145
Consistency 0.14 125
Pace 71.3 104
Improvement +1.2 142

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 97 A- F+ B- C- B+
Defense C 195 C- D+ C+ C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 87 A 69% 11 +6.4 15
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 346 D 33% 327 -4.4 356
Three Pointers 48% 47 B 37% 63 +5.4 31
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.5 20 B+ +5.6 30
1st FG Attempt A- 1.17 19
Second Chance F 20.8% 358 D 0.94 300 F+ 0.20 358
Turnovers from Steals B- 8.7% 102
Other Turnovers B 6.3% 63
Turnovers B- 15.0% 77
Freethrows C 0.30 204 D 69% 295 C- 0.21 238
Total Offense B- +3.2 97

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 45% 239 C+ 10.1% 128
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 217 D 7.8% 325
Three Pointers C 85% 180 C 0.9% 194
Total C+ 58% 135 C 5.5% 176

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 105 D 62% 298 +3.5 297
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 305 C+ 37% 147 -1.6 57
Three Pointers 42% 140 B- 32% 86 -0.8 148
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 307 C +0.3 192
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 217
Second Chance C+ 29.4% 143 D- 1.17 348 D+ 0.34 267
Turnovers from Steals B- 11.0% 67
Other Turnovers D 6.3% 307
Turnovers C+ 17.4% 141
Freethrows B- 0.27 82 D 75% 324 C+ 0.20 115
Total Defense C -0.7 195

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 51% 228 D+ 8.3% 284
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 39% 341 F+ 0.6% 361
Three Pointers C- 86% 242 C+ 1.3% 93
Total D+ 59% 265 D 4.1% 305

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.1 140 17.0 135
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 170 0.15 100
Consistency 0.11 58 0.12 148
Improvement +3.3 46 -2.1 289

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 141 124 106
Results Rating Rank 163 140 98
Conference Record 10 - 6 12 - 4 12 - 4
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36% 38% 33%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round36% 38% 33%
Second Round2% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: North Dakota St. (Home) - 62.7% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 36 - 36 - 6
Quad 415 - 321 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 38 @St. Mary's L 58 - 84 10% -11  3% 0 - 1 D -9 D+ -4 A F C D- -7 F+ A- C+
 Sat, Nov 8 339 Army W 83 - 76 94% +11  98% 1 - 1 D+ -8 C +1 D+ C+ A F+ -9 F+ C+ D
 Mon, Nov 10 126 @Washington St. L 71 - 81 38% -15  0% 1 - 2 C- -4 D+ -2 B- F B- C- -2 B- F A-
 Thu, Nov 13 226 Green Bay W 80 - 61 81% +19  99% 2 - 2 B+ +12 C- -2 B+ F B- A+ +14 A- C A
 Sat, Nov 15 222 @Southeast Missouri St. W 84 - 72 62% +13  99% 3 - 2 B+ +11 B- +4 A+ F F+ B+ +6 B- C- C
 Fri, Nov 21 165 Northern Colorado W 73 - 72 61% -5  2% 4 - 2 C +1 D- -6 C- C+ D- A- +7 B F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 205 Cal St. Fullerton L 80 - 88 69% +1  56% 4 - 3 D -11 D+ -4 F D+ A+ D -6 C- C D
 Sun, Nov 23 221 @Portland W 76 - 66 62% +5  95% 5 - 3 B +9 C -0 C D+ A A +9 C F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 158 @Montana St. L 74 - 82 49% -1  32% 5 - 4 D+ -5 C+ +3 A+ F F F+ -8 C- D F
 Sun, Dec 7 211 Weber St. W 88 - 65 78% +18  97% 6 - 4 A- +17 B +7 A B+ B- A +10 B+ C A+
 Sat, Dec 13 224 @UNC Asheville W 80 - 59 62% +13  87% 7 - 4 A +20 A- +9 A D- B A+ +12 B+ D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 281 UC Riverside W 92 - 78 87% +7  67% 8 - 4 C+ +4 A +14 A+ D- A+ F -10 F+ D+ C
 Sun, Jan 4 223 Denver W 92 - 88 81% +3  77% 9 - 4 1 - 0 C- -3 B +6 B- D B+ F+ -8 D+ F C+
 Wed, Jan 7 284 South Dakota W 99 - 86 88% +15  94% 10 - 4 2 - 0 C+ +3 A +14 A+ D+ A- F -11 F D- A-
 Sat, Jan 10 333 @Oral Roberts W 82 - 71 85% +2  68% 11 - 4 3 - 0 C+ +3 B+ +9 B- F A+ D -5 D- C- F
 Thu, Jan 15 291 @North Dakota W 91 - 80 76% +5  83% 12 - 4 4 - 0 B- +6 B +7 A+ F C- C -1 D+ F A
 Sat, Jan 17 131 @North Dakota St. L 65 - 68 40% -3  13% 12 - 5 4 - 1 C+ +2 F+ -8 C- F D- A +10 B A B
 Thu, Jan 22 209 South Dakota St. W 74 - 69 78% -1  35% 13 - 5 5 - 1 C -1 D -5 B- D+ F B +4 C B- B+
 Sat, Jan 24 284 @South Dakota W 90 - 78 74% +2  56% 14 - 5 6 - 1 B- +8 A +13 A- C- B- D -5 C D- F
 Thu, Jan 29 291 North Dakota L 80 - 81 89% +2  65% 14 - 6 6 - 2 D- -12 C- -2 C F A F -10 F D+ F+
 Sun, Feb 1 360 UMKC W 99 - 64 97% +23  94% 15 - 6 7 - 2 A- +15 A +12 A+ D+ C+ C+ +1 A+ F C
 Wed, Feb 4 209 @South Dakota St. W 77 - 62 59% +5  66% 16 - 6 8 - 2 A- +15 A- +10 A F A+ B+ +7 C- A+ D+
 Sat, Feb 7 333 Oral Roberts W 92 - 75 93% +5  68% 17 - 6 9 - 2 C+ +3 B- +4 A F A+ C- -3 B- F D
 Thu, Feb 12 252 @Nebraska Omaha L 94 - 98 67% -1  26% 17 - 7 9 - 3 D+ -6 A- +11 A+ D+ D F -17 F D F
 Sat, Feb 14 360 @UMKC W 104 - 64 93% +18  98% 18 - 7 10 - 3 A+ +26 A+ +22 A+ B A+ B- +3 D+ C D
 Sat, Feb 21 223 @Denver L 80 - 82 62% +1  53% 18 - 8 10 - 4 C- -3 C +0 A- F D- C- -3 D A D
 Thu, Feb 26 131 North Dakota St. W 79 - 76 63%
 Sat, Feb 28 252 Nebraska Omaha W 85 - 74 84%
Totals 19 - 9 11 - 5 +3 B- +3 F B+ B+ C -1 B D C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- A D B B+ 42% 20% 48% B+ A- F D F+ B- C D C- C D C+ B- C 41% 17% 42% D C- C+ D- D+ C+ B- D C+
1.13 69% 33% 37% +6 +2 1.17 21% 0.9 .20 15% .30 69% .21 1.10 62% 37% 32% 0 +1 1.04 29% 1.2 .34 17% .27 75% .22
Nov
3		 St. Mary's D+ A A+ F A- 51% 8% 41% A+ A F F F C D- F F D- F B- D F 33% 19% 48% C+ F+ C+ A A- C+ D+ B- C-
0.89 65% 75% 24% 0 +3 1.08 14% 0.0 .00 15% .18 30% .05 1.29 81% 33% 39% +11 0 1.23 37% 0.9 .33 17% .35 79% .28
Nov
8		 Army C A+ D F D- 53% 6% 42% A+ D+ D+ A C+ A B D+ B- F+ D+ F C F 41% 9% 50% D+ F+ C- B+ C+ D C+ F C-
1.21 75% 33% 18% -1 +3 1.06 29% 1.4 .40 10% .40 72% .29 1.11 59% 60% 33% +2 +2 1.09 31% 0.8 .25 16% .24 79% .19
Nov
10		 Washington St. D+ A+ F C- C+ 35% 12% 54% B+ B- F A+ F B- C- A C+ C- C- F A- B+ 42% 10% 48% D- B- C F F A- C- F F
1.03 78% 0% 32% +1 +1 1.06 3% 3.0 .10 13% .27 81% .22 1.18 65% 60% 30% +3 +2 1.10 31% 2.0 .62 22% .30 94% .28
Nov
13		 Green Bay C- B D+ B B 45% 5% 50% A+ B+ F F F B- F A+ F A+ C- A+ A A 49% 14% 37% D- A- C+ D+ C A A+ A+ A+
1.14 65% 33% 38% +6 +2 1.19 10% 0.7 .06 13% .16 90% .15 0.87 58% 14% 28% -7 +2 0.92 22% 1.1 .25 21% .25 57% .14
Nov
15		 Southeast Missouri St. B- A+ F A+ A+ 49% 11% 40% B+ A+ F A+ F F+ B A+ A B+ B- B+ A- B 46% 23% 32% C+ B- A+ F C- C A+ A+ A+
1.10 82% 0% 44% +14 +2 1.33 5% 2.0 .09 21% .43 85% .36 0.94 54% 31% 28% -7 0 0.89 18% 2.0 .35 17% .19 58% .11
Nov
21		 Northern Colorado D- D+ F D+ D 48% 9% 43% B+ C- B- D+ C+ D- F+ F F A- C- F A+ A- 47% 9% 44% F B C+ F F A+ F F F
1.00 54% 20% 30% -6 +2 0.94 30% 1.1 .32 15% .26 63% .16 0.99 62% 50% 25% -3 +2 1.00 26% 1.7 .44 25% .38 81% .31
Nov
22		 Cal St. Fullerton D+ C+ C- F F 41% 13% 46% B- F D- B- D+ A+ D- A+ C+ D D- A+ B- C+ 39% 9% 52% F C- A- F C D D- F F
1.05 64% 38% 21% -6 +1 0.92 23% 1.1 .26 12% .25 94% .24 1.15 67% 20% 32% 0 +2 1.06 19% 1.3 .25 13% .38 92% .35
Nov
23		 Portland C B F D C- 34% 4% 63% A- C F A+ D+ A C- B C A C+ B- C- C 47% 18% 35% D C F+ D- F A+ A+ A+ A+
1.06 63% 0% 31% -2 +2 1.02 22% 1.4 .30 13% .29 78% .22 0.92 58% 33% 33% -1 +1 1.02 34% 1.3 .45 28% .14 57% .08
Dec
3		 Montana St. C+ A+ D- C- A+ 38% 6% 56% B+ A+ F F F F B- F C F+ A- B- F C 27% 17% 56% D C- C+ F D F F C- F
1.09 89% 33% 32% +10 +2 1.26 19% 0.4 .07 21% .30 69% .20 1.21 46% 38% 41% +2 0 1.06 26% 1.3 .34 10% .48 76% .36
Dec
7		 Weber St. B A+ A+ C- A- 47% 6% 47% A- A F A+ B+ B- D B D+ A B+ A C+ A- 51% 17% 32% C- B+ C C- C A+ D A+ C+
1.25 76% 67% 32% +9 +3 1.25 19% 2.2 .41 14% .28 76% .22 0.92 50% 25% 33% -7 +1 0.91 32% 1.0 .32 24% .38 60% .23
Dec
13		 UNC Asheville A- B- F A+ A- 57% 10% 33% A A C- F D- B A+ F C+ A+ C B+ A+ A 40% 32% 28% F+ B+ C F+ D+ A+ A- A A-
1.20 62% 20% 47% +7 +3 1.22 30% 0.7 .21 13% .42 54% .22 0.88 58% 33% 23% -6 -1 0.87 29% 1.1 .32 24% .26 62% .16
Dec
20		 UC Riverside A B+ A+ A+ A+ 50% 20% 30% C+ A+ F A+ D- A+ D A+ C+ F F A+ F F 43% 22% 35% C F+ C D- D+ C C+ F D-
1.33 67% 55% 50% +15 +1 1.33 9% 2.5 .22 9% .30 84% .25 1.13 71% 18% 41% +5 0 1.12 27% 1.0 .27 19% .28 94% .27
Jan
4		 Denver B F+ F A+ C+ 45% 4% 52% A B- B- F D B+ A+ F B+ F+ C- B F+ C- 38% 22% 40% F+ D+ C F F C+ F F F
1.29 52% 0% 45% +4 +3 1.16 36% 0.9 .32 10% .45 59% .26 1.23 58% 36% 40% +3 0 1.08 30% 1.7 .50 15% .50 87% .43
Jan
7		 South Dakota A A+ F+ A+ A+ 54% 11% 36% B A+ F A+ D+ A- B C+ B F C- D+ F F 38% 20% 42% C+ F D D- D- A- A- F C
1.35 77% 33% 45% +15 +2 1.38 19% 1.8 .33 12% .33 76% .25 1.17 58% 40% 48% +9 0 1.20 30% 1.1 .33 22% .30 94% .28
Jan
10		 Oral Roberts B+ A D- F C+ 60% 6% 33% A B- C- F F A+ A+ B A+ D F A- B+ F+ 37% 20% 43% B- D- B- F C- F F A+ C
1.24 69% 33% 25% +2 +3 1.13 31% 0.6 .19 9% .52 74% .38 1.07 72% 30% 29% 0 0 1.02 24% 1.1 .26 14% .39 55% .21
Jan
15		 North Dakota B B+ F A+ A+ 38% 5% 57% B- A+ F A+ F C- A+ F A- C B F C C- 56% 8% 36% F D+ D+ F F A F F+ F
1.25 69% 0% 67% +30 +2 1.67 13% 2.0 .25 21% .59 56% .33 1.10 50% 50% 33% -4 +3 1.00 30% 1.6 .48 21% .52 77% .40
Jan
17		 North Dakota St. F+ C- A+ C- D+ 31% 6% 63% B+ C- F F F D- B+ F C+ A F A+ D+ B- 30% 30% 41% B+ B D A+ A B C B+ C+
0.93 60% 67% 33% +2 +1 1.08 19% 0.3 .06 22% .31 65% .20 0.98 75% 13% 36% -1 -2 0.96 36% 0.6 .21 19% .27 67% .18
Jan
22		 South Dakota St. D A- F C- C+ 42% 4% 53% A B- D B- D+ F A+ C+ A+ B B+ F B+ C 46% 15% 38% D- C C+ B- B- B+ B A+ A+
1.06 68% 0% 33% +2 +2 1.11 23% 1.1 .26 20% .43 75% .32 0.99 50% 75% 30% 0 +1 1.04 27% 1.0 .27 19% .23 46% .11
Jan
24		 South Dakota A A- A A- A- 45% 8% 47% B- A- B- F+ C- B- A+ B- A+ D D+ A+ B C+ 46% 17% 37% D C A F D- F C- D- D
1.30 68% 50% 39% +9 +2 1.24 36% 1.0 .36 14% .44 77% .34 1.12 60% 22% 30% -4 +1 0.96 20% 1.7 .34 10% .38 79% .30
Jan
29		 North Dakota C- C+ A+ F+ C- 55% 10% 35% B+ C D- F F A C+ C+ B- F D F C F 45% 11% 44% D F C+ F D+ F+ A B A
1.17 63% 60% 29% +3 +3 1.12 29% 0.9 .26 15% .39 74% .29 1.18 60% 67% 33% +4 +2 1.13 26% 1.2 .32 12% .25 67% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 UMKC A A+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 3% 62% B A+ D- B- D+ C+ F A F C+ A- A+ A+ A+ 43% 18% 39% F A+ F D+ F C B+ F B-
1.34 80% 50% 44% +18 +2 1.41 30% 1.1 .33 16% .15 78% .11 0.87 46% 20% 18% -18 +1 0.68 36% 0.9 .34 19% .20 75% .15
Feb
4		 South Dakota St. A- A+ A A- A 28% 11% 61% C+ A F F F A+ F A+ D- B+ F F A+ C 39% 7% 54% F C- A A+ A+ D+ C- D+ C-
1.23 73% 50% 39% +11 0 1.24 10% 0.0 .00 8% .21 83% .17 0.99 78% 100% 20% 0 +2 1.07 21% 0.4 .09 14% .28 73% .21
Feb
7		 Oral Roberts B- A+ A C- A 54% 12% 35% B A F D- F A+ A+ F A+ C- C+ F A+ B- 30% 14% 56% C+ B- F D- F D B- A B+
1.23 71% 50% 33% +8 +2 1.23 12% 1.0 .12 5% .53 63% .34 1.00 53% 50% 25% -7 0 0.88 34% 1.1 .36 16% .27 65% .17
Feb
12		 Nebraska Omaha A- A+ F A+ A+ 38% 7% 55% B+ A+ D- B D+ D F+ F F F F B F F 45% 17% 38% D- F F B- D F F F F
1.27 81% 25% 45% +17 +2 1.39 23% 1.1 .26 16% .23 43% .10 1.32 71% 33% 40% +8 +1 1.21 33% 1.0 .33 12% .43 89% .38
Feb
14		 UMKC A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 52% 6% 42% A A+ C- A+ B A+ D+ F D B- F+ F A+ C 45% 14% 41% F D+ A+ F C D A+ F A+
1.43 69% 50% 50% +16 +3 1.40 34% 1.3 .45 10% .24 63% .15 0.88 65% 50% 17% -6 +1 0.93 18% 1.3 .24 16% .03 100% .03
Feb
21		 Denver C A B- B- B+ 54% 10% 37% A- A- D+ F F D- B F F C- B F C D 23% 23% 54% C D A+ C- A D D+ F F+
1.17 71% 40% 37% +9 +3 1.25 31% 0.8 .25 16% .35 40% .14 1.20 50% 67% 36% +6 -1 1.12 18% 1.2 .21 12% .33 85% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 5.9 40.3 53.2 99.3 2nd
3rd 0.7 0.7 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 6.5 40.3 53.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0%
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 53.2% 38.7% 38.7% 13.1 2.9 13.1 4.5 0.1 32.6
11-5 40.3% 33.8% 33.8% 13.6 0.4 5.6 7.0 0.7 0.0 26.7
10-6 6.5% 28.9% 28.9% 13.8 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.2 4.6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 36.1% 36.1% 0.0% 13.3 63.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 20.6% 100.0% 13.1 13.9 63.7 22.0 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 11.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.3%
Lose Out 2.0%