St. Thomas
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#156
Expected Predictive Rating+1.4#132
Pace69.2#166
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#116
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#221
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.9% 24.8% 15.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.0 14.7
.500 or above 82.2% 84.5% 62.0%
.500 or above in Conference 86.4% 87.6% 75.7%
Conference Champion 32.9% 34.3% 20.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 1.3% 3.8%
First Four2.1% 1.9% 3.2%
First Round23.9% 24.8% 15.4%
Second Round1.5% 1.6% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Army (Home) - 89.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 43 - 6
Quad 416 - 519 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 49   @ St. Mary's L 58-84 9%     0 - 1 -11.7 -2.1 -11.6
  Nov 08, 2025 344   Army W 80-66 90%    
  Nov 10, 2025 145   @ Washington St. L 76-80 37%    
  Nov 13, 2025 318   Green Bay W 81-70 85%    
  Nov 15, 2025 238   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 74-73 53%    
  Nov 21, 2025 183   Northern Colorado W 76-75 55%    
  Nov 22, 2025 339   Cal St. Fullerton W 77-67 81%    
  Nov 23, 2025 280   @ Portland W 77-74 60%    
  Dec 03, 2025 209   @ Montana St. L 72-73 47%    
  Dec 06, 2025 285   Weber St. W 76-67 79%    
  Dec 13, 2025 201   @ UNC Asheville L 74-75 46%    
  Dec 20, 2025 272   UC Riverside W 77-69 76%    
  Jan 03, 2026 327   Denver W 81-69 85%    
  Jan 07, 2026 302   South Dakota W 87-77 81%    
  Jan 10, 2026 317   @ Oral Roberts W 81-76 68%    
  Jan 15, 2026 316   @ North Dakota W 78-73 67%    
  Jan 17, 2026 197   @ North Dakota St. L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 22, 2026 146   South Dakota St. W 77-75 58%    
  Jan 24, 2026 302   @ South Dakota W 84-80 64%    
  Jan 29, 2026 316   North Dakota W 81-70 83%    
  Feb 01, 2026 299   UMKC W 73-63 80%    
  Feb 04, 2026 146   @ South Dakota St. L 74-78 38%    
  Feb 07, 2026 317   Oral Roberts W 84-73 83%    
  Feb 12, 2026 188   @ Nebraska Omaha L 76-77 45%    
  Feb 14, 2026 299   @ UMKC W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 21, 2026 327   @ Denver W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 26, 2026 197   North Dakota St. W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 28, 2026 188   Nebraska Omaha W 79-74 65%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.6 6.6 9.1 8.1 4.7 1.5 32.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.3 7.9 6.6 2.6 0.4 22.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.4 6.4 3.6 0.7 0.0 16.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.5 4.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.2 1.0 0.0 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.8 5.8 8.2 10.8 12.9 14.3 13.9 11.7 8.5 4.7 1.5 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
15-1 100.0% 4.7    4.5 0.1
14-2 95.3% 8.1    7.1 1.0 0.0
13-3 77.5% 9.1    6.2 2.8 0.1
12-4 47.5% 6.6    3.1 2.9 0.6 0.0
11-5 18.0% 2.6    0.6 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 32.9% 32.9 22.9 8.1 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.5% 64.5% 64.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5
15-1 4.7% 58.4% 58.4% 12.6 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.9
14-2 8.5% 46.6% 46.6% 13.2 0.1 0.9 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.6
13-3 11.7% 38.5% 38.5% 13.9 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.8 0.8 0.1 7.2
12-4 13.9% 29.3% 29.3% 14.8 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.2 0.5 9.8
11-5 14.3% 21.8% 21.8% 15.8 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.4 0.7 11.2
10-6 12.9% 15.6% 15.6% 16.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.8 10.9
9-7 10.8% 11.2% 11.2% 17.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 9.6
8-8 8.2% 9.3% 9.3% 18.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 7.5
7-9 5.8% 6.5% 6.5% 17.2 0.0 0.4 5.4
6-10 3.8% 4.5% 4.5% 17.2 0.0 0.2 3.6
5-11 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-12 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-13 0.5% 0.5
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 23.9% 23.9% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.8 5.3 6.4 5.4 4.1 76.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 9.9 4.4 2.2 8.9 13.3 22.2 40.0 8.9