St. Thomas
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.8 123
Expected Predictive Rating +2.0 130
Pace 71.4 106
Improvement +2.0 100

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 93 A- F+ B C- B+
Defense C 198 C- D+ C+ B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 102 A 68% 13 +6.1 15
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 346 D- 32% 336 -4.4 358
Three Pointers 48% 45 B 37% 59 +5.7 26
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.5 22 B+ +5.6 30
1st FG Attempt A- 1.17 19
Second Chance F 20.4% 359 D+ 0.95 293 F+ 0.19 360
Turnovers B 14.7% 58
Freethrows C 0.30 208 D+ 70% 259 C- 0.21 223
Total Offense B- +3.5 93

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 46% 222 C+ 9.9% 111
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 23% 207 D+ 7.0% 303
Three Pointers C 84% 197 C 0.9% 193
Total C+ 58% 126 C+ 5.3% 147

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 101 D 63% 305 +3.9 312
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 299 B- 36% 98 -1.8 48
Three Pointers 41% 158 B- 32% 89 -1.0 139
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 305 C +0.3 195
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 217
Second Chance C+ 29.7% 153 D- 1.17 343 D+ 0.35 271
Turnovers C+ 17.5% 136
Freethrows B- 0.27 72 D 75% 323 B- 0.20 110
Total Defense C -0.7 198

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 51% 235 D+ 8.1% 296
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 41% 349 F+ 0.8% 359
Three Pointers C- 85% 197 C+ 1.3% 193
Total D+ 60% 275 D 4.1% 306

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.1 139 17.0 128
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 170 0.15 107
Improvement +4.1 #22 -2.0 #291

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39% 41% 35%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 23% 32% 4%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round39% 41% 35%
Second Round2% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Denver (Away) - 66.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 36 - 36 - 6
Quad 416 - 322 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 40 @St. Mary's L 58 - 84 11% -11  3% 0 - 1 D -10 D+ -4 A F C F+ -8 F+ B+ C+
 Sat, Nov 8 341 Army W 83 - 76 94% +11  98% 1 - 1 D -8 C +1 D+ C+ A F+ -9 F+ C+ D
 Mon, Nov 10 126 @Washington St. L 71 - 81 40% -15  0% 1 - 2 C- -5 D+ -3 B- F B- C- -2 B- F A-
 Thu, Nov 13 233 Green Bay W 80 - 61 82% +19  99% 2 - 2 B+ +12 D+ -3 B+ F C+ A+ +15 A- C A
 Sat, Nov 15 226 @Southeast Missouri St. W 84 - 72 63% +13  99% 3 - 2 B+ +11 B- +4 A+ F D- B+ +7 B- C- C
 Fri, Nov 21 156 Northern Colorado W 73 - 72 61% -5  2% 4 - 2 C +1 D- -6 C- C+ D- A- +7 B F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 212 Cal St. Fullerton L 80 - 88 71% +1  56% 4 - 3 D -11 D+ -2 F D+ A+ D- -8 D+ C D
 Sun, Nov 23 206 @Portland W 76 - 66 60% +5  95% 5 - 3 B +10 C +1 C+ D+ A A +9 C- F+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 147 @Montana St. L 74 - 82 47% -1  32% 5 - 4 C- -4 C+ +3 A+ F F D- -8 C- D F
 Sun, Dec 7 229 Weber St. W 88 - 65 82% +18  97% 6 - 4 A- +16 B +7 A B B A +9 B+ C- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 217 @UNC Asheville W 80 - 59 61% +13  87% 7 - 4 A +21 B+ +9 A D- B+ A+ +13 A- D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 294 UC Riverside W 92 - 78 89% +7  67% 8 - 4 C+ +3 A +13 A+ D- A+ F -10 F+ D+ C-
 Sun, Jan 4 249 Denver W 92 - 88 84% +3  77% 9 - 4 1 - 0 C- -4 B- +5 B- D B+ F+ -9 D+ F C+
 Wed, Jan 7 280 South Dakota W 99 - 86 88% +15  94% 10 - 4 2 - 0 C+ +3 A +13 A+ D A- F -11 F D A-
 Sat, Jan 10 338 @Oral Roberts W 82 - 71 86% +2  68% 11 - 4 3 - 0 C+ +2 B+ +8 B- F A+ D -5 D- C F
 Thu, Jan 15 300 @North Dakota W 91 - 80 77% +5  83% 12 - 4 4 - 0 B- +6 B+ +8 A+ F C- C- -2 D+ F A
 Sat, Jan 17 140 @North Dakota St. L 65 - 68 44% -3  13% 12 - 5 4 - 1 C +1 F+ -9 C- F D A +10 B A B-
 Thu, Jan 22 202 South Dakota St. W 74 - 69 79% -1  35% 13 - 5 5 - 1 C -1 D+ -4 B D F B +4 C B- B
 Sat, Jan 24 280 @South Dakota W 90 - 78 74% +2  56% 14 - 5 6 - 1 B +8 A +13 A- D+ B- D+ -5 C D F
 Thu, Jan 29 300 North Dakota L 80 - 81 89% +2  65% 14 - 6 6 - 2 D- -12 C- -1 C- F A+ F -11 F D+ D-
 Sun, Feb 1 359 UMKC W 99 - 64 97% +23  94% 15 - 6 7 - 2 A- +16 A +12 A+ C- C+ B- +2 A+ F+ C-
 Wed, Feb 4 202 @South Dakota St. W 77 - 62 59% +5  66% 16 - 6 8 - 2 A- +15 A- +11 A F A+ B+ +6 C- A+ D+
 Sat, Feb 7 338 Oral Roberts W 92 - 75 94% +5  68% 17 - 6 9 - 2 C+ +2 B- +4 A F A+ C- -3 C+ F D
 Thu, Feb 12 238 @Nebraska Omaha L 94 - 98 65% -1  26% 17 - 7 9 - 3 D+ -5 A +11 A+ D+ D F -16 F D F
 Sat, Feb 14 359 @UMKC W 104 - 64 92% +18  98% 18 - 7 10 - 3 A+ +27 A+ +21 A+ B+ A+ B +4 C- C D-
 Sat, Feb 21 249 @Denver W 86 - 81 67%
 Thu, Feb 26 140 North Dakota St. W 79 - 75 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 238 Nebraska Omaha W 84 - 74 83%
Totals 20 - 8 12 - 4 +3 B- +3 A B+ B+ C -1 B D+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- A D- B B+ 42% 20% 48% B+ A- F D+ F+ B C D+ C- C D B- B- C 42% 17% 41% D C- C+ D- D+ C+ B- D B-
1.14 68% 32% 37% +6 +1 1.17 20% 1.0 .19 15% .30 70% .21 1.10 63% 36% 32% 0 +1 1.04 30% 1.2 .35 18% .27 75% .22
Nov
3		 St. Mary's D+ A A+ F A- 51% 8% 41% A+ A F F F C D- F F F+ F B- D F 33% 19% 48% C+ F+ C+ A B+ C+ D+ B- C-
0.89 65% 75% 24% 0 +3 1.08 14% 0.0 .00 15% .18 30% .05 1.29 81% 33% 39% +11 0 1.23 37% 0.9 .33 17% .35 79% .28
Nov
8		 Army C A+ D F D- 53% 6% 42% A+ D+ D+ A C+ A B+ C- B F+ D+ F C F 41% 9% 50% D+ F+ C- B+ C+ D C+ F C-
1.21 75% 33% 18% -1 +3 1.06 29% 1.4 .40 10% .40 72% .29 1.11 59% 60% 33% +2 +2 1.09 31% 0.8 .25 16% .24 79% .19
Nov
10		 Washington St. D+ A+ F C- C+ 35% 12% 54% B+ B- F A+ F B- D+ A C C- C- F B+ B 42% 10% 48% D- B- C- F F A- C F F+
1.03 78% 0% 32% +1 +1 1.06 3% 3.0 .10 13% .27 81% .22 1.18 65% 60% 30% +3 +2 1.10 31% 2.0 .62 22% .30 94% .28
Nov
13		 Green Bay D+ B D+ B B- 45% 5% 50% A+ B+ F F F C+ F A+ F A+ C- A+ A A 49% 14% 37% D- A- B- C- C A A+ A+ A+
1.14 65% 33% 38% +6 +2 1.19 10% 0.7 .06 13% .16 90% .15 0.87 58% 14% 28% -7 +2 0.92 22% 1.1 .25 21% .25 57% .14
Nov
15		 Southeast Missouri St. B- A+ F A+ A+ 49% 11% 40% B+ A+ F A+ F D- B A+ A B+ C+ B+ A- B 46% 23% 32% C+ B- A+ F C- C A+ A A+
1.10 82% 0% 44% +14 +2 1.33 5% 2.0 .09 21% .43 85% .36 0.94 54% 31% 28% -6 0 0.89 18% 2.0 .35 17% .19 58% .11
Nov
21		 Northern Colorado D- D+ F D+ D 48% 9% 43% B+ C- B- D+ C+ D- F+ F F A- C- F A+ A- 47% 9% 44% F B C+ F F A+ F F F
1.00 54% 20% 30% -6 +2 0.94 30% 1.1 .32 15% .26 63% .16 0.99 62% 50% 25% -3 +2 1.00 26% 1.7 .44 25% .38 81% .31
Nov
22		 Cal St. Fullerton D+ B- D+ F F 41% 13% 46% B- F D- B- D+ A+ D- A+ B- D- F+ A+ B- C- 39% 9% 52% F+ D+ A- F C D D- F F
1.05 64% 38% 21% -6 +1 0.92 23% 1.1 .26 12% .25 94% .24 1.15 67% 20% 32% 0 +2 1.06 19% 1.3 .25 13% .38 92% .35
Nov
23		 Portland C B F D+ C- 34% 4% 63% A- C+ F A+ D+ A C- B+ C A C+ B C- C 47% 18% 35% D+ C- D- D- F+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.06 63% 0% 31% -2 +2 1.02 22% 1.4 .30 13% .29 78% .22 0.92 58% 33% 33% -1 +1 1.02 34% 1.3 .45 28% .14 57% .08
Dec
3		 Montana St. C+ A+ D- C- A+ 38% 6% 56% B+ A+ F F F F B- F C D- A- B- F C 27% 17% 56% D C- B- F D F F C- F
1.09 89% 33% 32% +10 +2 1.26 19% 0.4 .07 21% .30 69% .20 1.21 46% 38% 41% +2 0 1.06 26% 1.3 .34 10% .48 76% .36
Dec
7		 Weber St. B A+ A+ C- A- 47% 6% 47% A- A F A+ B B D B D+ A B A C+ B+ 51% 17% 32% C- B+ C C- C- A+ D+ A+ C+
1.25 76% 67% 32% +9 +3 1.25 19% 2.2 .41 14% .28 76% .22 0.92 50% 25% 33% -7 +1 0.91 32% 1.0 .32 24% .38 60% .23
Dec
13		 UNC Asheville B+ B- F A+ A- 57% 10% 33% A A C F D- B+ A+ F C+ A+ C B+ A+ A 40% 32% 28% F A- C D- D+ A+ A- A A
1.20 62% 20% 47% +7 +3 1.22 30% 0.7 .21 13% .42 54% .22 0.88 58% 33% 23% -6 -1 0.87 29% 1.1 .32 24% .26 62% .16
Dec
20		 UC Riverside A B+ A+ A+ A+ 50% 20% 30% C+ A+ F A+ D- A+ D+ A+ B- F F A+ F F 43% 22% 35% C F+ C D- D+ C- C+ F D-
1.33 67% 55% 50% +15 +1 1.33 9% 2.5 .22 9% .30 84% .25 1.13 71% 18% 41% +5 0 1.12 27% 1.0 .27 19% .28 94% .27
Jan
4		 Denver B- D- F A+ C+ 45% 4% 52% A- B- C+ F D B+ A+ F B+ F+ C- B- F+ C- 38% 22% 40% D- D+ C F F C+ F F F
1.29 52% 0% 45% +4 +3 1.16 36% 0.9 .32 10% .45 59% .26 1.23 58% 36% 40% +3 0 1.08 30% 1.7 .50 15% .50 87% .43
Jan
7		 South Dakota A A+ F+ A+ A+ 54% 11% 36% B- A+ F A+ D A- B C+ B+ F C- D+ F F 38% 20% 42% C+ F C- D- D A- B+ F C-
1.35 77% 33% 45% +15 +2 1.38 19% 1.8 .33 12% .33 76% .25 1.17 58% 40% 48% +9 0 1.20 30% 1.1 .33 22% .30 94% .28
Jan
10		 Oral Roberts B+ A D- F C+ 60% 6% 33% A B- C- F F A+ A+ B- A+ D F A- B+ F+ 37% 20% 43% B D- B F+ C F F A+ C
1.24 69% 33% 25% +2 +3 1.13 31% 0.6 .19 9% .52 74% .38 1.07 72% 30% 29% 0 0 1.02 24% 1.1 .26 14% .39 55% .21
Jan
15		 North Dakota B+ B+ F A+ A+ 38% 5% 57% B- A+ F A+ F C- A+ F A- C- B F C C- 56% 8% 36% F D+ D+ F F A F F F
1.25 69% 0% 67% +30 +2 1.67 13% 2.0 .25 21% .59 56% .33 1.10 50% 50% 33% -4 +3 1.00 30% 1.6 .48 21% .52 77% .40
Jan
17		 North Dakota St. F+ C- A+ C- D+ 31% 6% 63% B+ C- F F F D B+ F C+ A F A+ D+ B- 30% 30% 41% B+ B D+ A+ A B- C B+ C+
0.93 60% 67% 33% +2 +1 1.08 19% 0.3 .06 22% .31 65% .20 0.98 75% 13% 36% -1 -2 0.96 36% 0.6 .21 19% .27 67% .18
Jan
22		 South Dakota St. D+ A- F C- C+ 42% 4% 53% A B D- C+ D F A+ C A+ B B+ F B C 46% 15% 38% D- C C+ B- B- B B A+ A+
1.06 68% 0% 33% +2 +2 1.11 23% 1.1 .26 20% .43 75% .32 0.99 50% 75% 30% 0 +1 1.04 27% 1.0 .27 19% .23 46% .11
Jan
24		 South Dakota A B+ A A- A- 45% 8% 47% C+ A- B- F D+ B- A+ B- A+ D+ D+ A+ B C+ 46% 17% 37% D C A F D F D+ D D
1.30 68% 50% 39% +9 +2 1.24 36% 1.0 .36 14% .44 77% .34 1.12 60% 22% 30% -4 +1 0.96 20% 1.7 .34 10% .38 79% .30
Jan
29		 North Dakota C- C+ A+ F+ D+ 55% 10% 35% B+ C- D- F F A+ C+ B- B- F D F C F 45% 11% 44% D F C+ F D+ D- A B- A
1.17 63% 60% 29% +3 +3 1.12 29% 0.9 .26 15% .39 74% .29 1.18 60% 67% 33% +4 +2 1.13 26% 1.2 .32 12% .25 67% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 UMKC A A+ A A+ A+ 34% 3% 62% B+ A+ D- B C- C+ F A F B- A- A+ A+ A+ 43% 18% 39% F A+ F D F+ C- B+ F B-
1.34 80% 50% 44% +18 +2 1.41 30% 1.1 .33 16% .15 78% .11 0.87 46% 20% 18% -18 +1 0.68 36% 0.9 .34 19% .20 75% .15
Feb
4		 South Dakota St. A- A+ A A- A+ 28% 11% 61% C+ A F F F A+ F A D- B+ F F A+ C 39% 7% 54% F C- A A+ A+ D+ C- D+ C-
1.23 73% 50% 39% +11 0 1.24 10% 0.0 .00 8% .21 83% .17 0.99 78% 100% 20% 0 +2 1.07 21% 0.4 .09 14% .28 73% .21
Feb
7		 Oral Roberts B- A+ A C- A 54% 12% 35% B A F F+ F A+ A+ F A+ C- C+ F A C+ 30% 14% 56% C+ C+ F D F D B- A B+
1.23 71% 50% 33% +8 +2 1.23 12% 1.0 .12 5% .53 63% .34 1.00 53% 50% 25% -7 0 0.88 34% 1.1 .36 16% .27 65% .17
Feb
12		 Nebraska Omaha A A+ F A+ A+ 38% 7% 55% B+ A+ F+ B D+ D F F F F F B F F 45% 17% 38% F+ F F B- D F F F F
1.27 81% 25% 45% +17 +2 1.39 23% 1.1 .26 16% .23 43% .10 1.32 71% 33% 40% +8 +1 1.21 33% 1.0 .33 12% .43 89% .38
Feb
14		 UMKC A+ B+ A A+ A+ 52% 6% 42% A A+ C- A+ B+ A+ D+ F D B F+ F A+ C 45% 14% 41% F C- A+ F C D- A+ F A+
1.43 69% 50% 50% +16 +3 1.40 34% 1.3 .45 10% .24 63% .15 0.88 65% 50% 17% -6 +1 0.93 18% 1.3 .24 16% .03 100% .03



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.0 20.8 22.8 1st
2nd 1.7 16.9 41.0 16.6 76.2 2nd
3rd 0.6 0.4 1.1 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 2.3 17.3 43.0 37.3 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 55.7% 20.8    3.1 17.7
12-4 4.6% 2.0    0.0 1.6 0.4
11-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7
8-8
Total 22.8% 22.8 3.1 19.3 0.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 37.3% 43.7% 43.7% 13.0 0.0 3.1 10.5 2.7 0.0 21.0
12-4 43.0% 37.5% 37.5% 13.5 0.7 8.0 7.0 0.5 26.9
11-5 17.3% 33.7% 33.7% 13.7 0.1 1.9 3.4 0.5 11.5
10-6 2.3% 24.9% 24.9% 14.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.8
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 38.8% 38.8% 0.0% 13.3 61.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 16.3% 100.0% 13.0 0.1 19.1 64.2 16.6 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 8.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.3%
Lose Out 0.8%