St. Thomas
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +3.2 115
Results Rating +1.2 137
Consistency 0.14 118
Pace 70.3 126
Improvement +2.4 95

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 102 A- F+ B D+ A-
Defense C 157 C C- C C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 78 A- 68% 18 +6.2 15
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 347 D+ 34% 301 -4.4 357
Three Pointers 48% 43 B 36% 76 +5.3 30
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.6 18 B+ +5.1 39
1st FG Attempt A- 1.16 21
Second Chance F 21.1% 357 D 0.94 309 F+ 0.20 357
Opponents' Steals B- 8.6% 105
Other Turnovers B 6.1% 57
Turnovers B 14.7% 70
Freethrows C- 0.29 230 D 69% 301 D+ 0.20 259
Total Offense C+ +2.8 102

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 46% 233 C+ 10.1% 132
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 168 D- 7.9% 330
Three Pointers C 85% 173 C 0.8% 170
Total C+ 58% 127 C 5.4% 174


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 101 D+ 62% 285 +3.4 296
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 306 C+ 36% 108 -1.8 41
Three Pointers 42% 143 B 31% 52 -1.4 126
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 304 C -0.5 155
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 184
Second Chance C+ 28.9% 132 D- 1.14 322 C- 0.33 235
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.6% 94
Other Turnovers D+ 6.5% 289
Turnovers C 17.1% 154
Freethrows B- 0.27 92 D 75% 322 C+ 0.21 122
Total Defense C +0.4 157

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 215 D+ 8.4% 282
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 37% 334 F+ 0.4% 364
Three Pointers D+ 87% 276 B+ 1.8% 39
Total D+ 59% 259 D+ 4.3% 283

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 164 17.1 142
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 175 0.15 102
Consistency 0.11 72 0.12 165
Improvement +2.0 93 +0.5 164

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 117 115 113
Results Rating Rank 138 136 134
Conference Record 12 - 4 12 - 4 12 - 4
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 36 - 26 - 5
Quad 415 - 421 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 32 @St. Mary's L 58 - 84 10% -11  3% 0 - 1 D -9 D+ -3 A F C D- -7 F+ A- C+
 Sat, Nov 8 340 Army W 83 - 76 95% +11  98% 1 - 1 D -8 C +1 D+ B- A F+ -10 F C+ D
 Mon, Nov 10 132 @Washington St. L 71 - 81 44% -15  0% 1 - 2 D+ -5 D+ -3 B- F B- C- -3 B- F A-
 Thu, Nov 13 218 Green Bay W 80 - 61 81% +19  99% 2 - 2 B+ +13 C- -2 B+ F C+ A+ +15 A- C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 232 @Southeast Missouri St. W 84 - 72 67% +13  99% 3 - 2 B +11 B- +4 A+ F F+ B+ +6 B- D+ C
 Fri, Nov 21 158 Northern Colorado W 73 - 72 61% -5  2% 4 - 2 C +1 D- -6 C- C+ D- A- +8 B+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 183 Cal St. Fullerton L 80 - 88 67% +1  56% 4 - 3 D -9 D+ -3 F D+ A+ D -5 C C D
 Sun, Nov 23 209 @Portland W 76 - 66 61% +5  95% 5 - 3 B +10 C +0 C D+ A- A +10 C F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 140 @Montana St. L 74 - 82 47% -1  32% 5 - 4 C- -4 C+ +3 A+ F F D- -7 C D F
 Sun, Dec 7 210 Weber St. W 88 - 65 80% +18  97% 6 - 4 A- +17 B +7 A- B+ B- A +10 B+ C- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 236 @UNC Asheville W 80 - 59 68% +13  87% 7 - 4 A +20 B+ +8 A D B A+ +12 A- D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 273 UC Riverside W 92 - 78 88% +7  67% 8 - 4 C+ +5 A +14 A+ D- A+ F+ -9 F+ C- C
 Sun, Jan 4 256 Denver W 92 - 88 86% +3  77% 9 - 4 1 - 0 C- -4 B- +4 C+ D A- F+ -9 D+ F C+
 Wed, Jan 7 285 South Dakota W 99 - 86 89% +15  94% 10 - 4 2 - 0 C+ +3 A +14 A+ D+ A- F -12 F D- A
 Sat, Jan 10 313 @Oral Roberts W 82 - 71 81% +2  68% 11 - 4 3 - 0 C+ +5 B+ +9 B F A+ D+ -3 D C F
 Thu, Jan 15 281 @North Dakota W 91 - 80 76% +5  83% 12 - 4 4 - 0 B- +7 B+ +9 A+ F C- C- -2 D+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 124 @North Dakota St. L 65 - 68 41% -3  13% 12 - 5 4 - 1 C+ +2 D- -7 C F D- A +10 B- A B
 Thu, Jan 22 215 South Dakota St. W 74 - 69 81% -1  35% 13 - 5 5 - 1 C -1 D -5 B- D+ F B +4 C- B- B
 Sat, Jan 24 285 @South Dakota W 90 - 78 76% +2  56% 14 - 5 6 - 1 B- +8 A +14 A- C- B- D -6 C F+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 281 North Dakota L 80 - 81 89% +2  65% 14 - 6 6 - 2 D -11 C- -0 C F A F -11 F D D-
 Sun, Feb 1 363 UMKC W 99 - 64 98% +23  94% 15 - 6 7 - 2 B+ +13 A- +11 A+ D+ C+ C+ +1 A+ F C
 Wed, Feb 4 215 @South Dakota St. W 77 - 62 63% +5  66% 16 - 6 8 - 2 A- +15 A- +10 A F A+ B+ +6 D+ A+ D+
 Sat, Feb 7 313 Oral Roberts W 92 - 75 92% +5  68% 17 - 6 9 - 2 C+ +5 B- +5 A F A+ C -1 B F+ D
 Thu, Feb 12 257 @Nebraska Omaha L 94 - 98 70% -1  26% 17 - 7 9 - 3 D+ -6 A +12 A+ D+ D F -18 F D- F+
 Sat, Feb 14 363 @UMKC W 104 - 64 95% +18  98% 18 - 7 10 - 3 A+ +24 A+ +20 A+ B A+ B- +3 D+ C D
 Sat, Feb 21 256 @Denver L 80 - 82 70% +1  53% 18 - 8 10 - 4 C- -4 C- -1 A- F D- D+ -3 D A D-
 Thu, Feb 26 124 North Dakota St. W 84 - 62 64% +19  98% 19 - 8 11 - 4 A +21 A +14 A+ C A+ A +9 A+ C+ F
 Sat, Feb 28 257 Nebraska Omaha W 68 - 53 86% +5  55% 20 - 8 12 - 4 B- +7 D- -7 C F+ B- A+ +15 A+ A+ F
 Thu, Mar 5 215 South Dakota St. W 80 - 67 73% +3  52% 21 - 8 B +10 B+ +9 A+ F B C+ +2 A- D B
 Sat, Mar 7 281 North Dakota L 66 - 67 83% +3  67% 21 - 9 D+ -8 F+ -9 F+ F A+ C+ +1 F A+ C-
Totals 21 - 9 12 - 4 +3 C+ +3 F B+ A- C +0 B D D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ A- D+ B B+ 42% 19% 48% A- A- F D F+ B C- D D+ C D+ C+ B C 42% 17% 42% D C C+ D- C- C B- D C+
1.13 68% 34% 36% +5 +2 1.16 21% 0.9 .20 15% .29 69% .20 1.08 62% 36% 31% -1 +1 1.02 29% 1.1 .33 17% .27 75% .22
Nov
3		 St. Mary's D+ A A+ F A- 51% 8% 41% A+ A F+ F F C D- F F D- F B- D F 33% 19% 48% C+ F+ C+ A A- C+ D B- D+
0.89 65% 75% 24% 0 +3 1.08 14% 0.0 .00 15% .18 30% .05 1.29 81% 33% 39% +11 0 1.23 37% 0.9 .33 17% .35 79% .28
Nov
8		 Army C A D F D- 53% 6% 42% A+ D+ D+ A+ B- A B C- B- F+ C- F C F 41% 9% 50% D+ F D+ B+ C+ D C F C-
1.21 75% 33% 18% -1 +3 1.06 29% 1.4 .40 10% .40 72% .29 1.11 59% 60% 33% +2 +2 1.09 31% 0.8 .25 16% .24 79% .19
Nov
10		 Washington St. D+ A+ F C- C+ 35% 12% 54% B+ B- F A+ F B- C- A- C C- C- F A- B 42% 10% 48% F+ B- C- F F A- D+ F F
1.03 78% 0% 32% +1 +1 1.06 3% 3.0 .10 13% .27 81% .22 1.18 65% 60% 30% +3 +2 1.10 31% 2.0 .62 22% .30 94% .28
Nov
13		 Green Bay C- B D+ B B 45% 5% 50% A+ B+ F F F C+ F A+ F A+ C- A+ A A 49% 14% 37% D A- C+ D+ C A+ A A+ A+
1.14 65% 33% 38% +6 +2 1.19 10% 0.7 .06 13% .16 90% .15 0.87 58% 14% 28% -7 +2 0.92 22% 1.1 .25 21% .25 57% .14
Nov
15		 Southeast Missouri St. B- A+ F A+ A+ 49% 11% 40% A- A+ F A+ F F+ B- A+ A- B+ B- B+ A- B- 46% 23% 32% C B- A+ F D+ C A+ A+ A+
1.10 82% 0% 44% +14 +2 1.33 5% 2.0 .09 21% .43 85% .36 0.94 54% 31% 28% -7 0 0.89 18% 2.0 .35 17% .19 58% .11
Nov
21		 Northern Colorado D- D+ F D+ D+ 48% 9% 43% B+ C- B- C- C+ D- F+ F F A- C- F A+ A 47% 9% 44% F B+ C+ F F A+ F F+ F
1.00 54% 20% 30% -6 +2 0.94 30% 1.1 .32 15% .26 63% .16 0.99 62% 50% 25% -3 +2 1.00 26% 1.7 .44 25% .38 81% .31
Nov
22		 Cal St. Fullerton D+ C+ D+ F F 41% 13% 46% B F D- B D+ A+ D- A+ C+ D D- A+ B- C+ 39% 9% 52% F C A- F C D F+ F F
1.05 64% 38% 21% -6 +1 0.92 23% 1.1 .26 12% .25 94% .24 1.15 67% 20% 32% 0 +2 1.06 19% 1.3 .25 13% .38 92% .35
Nov
23		 Portland C B F D+ C- 34% 4% 63% A- C F A+ D+ A- C B+ C+ A C+ B C C+ 47% 18% 35% D C F+ F+ F A+ A+ A+ A+
1.06 63% 0% 31% -2 +2 1.02 22% 1.4 .30 13% .29 78% .22 0.92 58% 33% 33% -1 +1 1.02 34% 1.3 .45 28% .14 57% .08
Dec
3		 Montana St. C+ A+ D- C- A+ 38% 6% 56% B+ A+ F F F F B F+ C+ D- A B- F C 27% 17% 56% D C C+ F D F F D+ F
1.09 89% 33% 32% +10 +2 1.26 19% 0.4 .07 21% .30 69% .20 1.21 46% 38% 41% +2 0 1.06 26% 1.3 .34 10% .48 76% .36
Dec
7		 Weber St. B A+ A+ C- A- 47% 6% 47% A A- F A+ B+ B- D B D+ A B+ A C+ A- 51% 17% 32% C- B+ C C- C- A+ D- A+ C+
1.25 76% 67% 32% +9 +3 1.25 19% 2.2 .41 14% .28 76% .22 0.92 50% 25% 33% -7 +1 0.91 32% 1.0 .32 24% .38 60% .23
Dec
13		 UNC Asheville B+ B- F A+ A- 57% 10% 33% A A C F D B A+ F C+ A+ C B+ A+ A 40% 32% 28% F+ A- C D- D+ A+ A A A
1.20 62% 20% 47% +7 +3 1.22 30% 0.7 .21 13% .42 54% .22 0.88 58% 33% 23% -6 -1 0.87 29% 1.1 .32 24% .26 62% .16
Dec
20		 UC Riverside A B+ A+ A+ A+ 50% 20% 30% C+ A+ F A+ D- A+ D A+ C+ F+ F A+ F F 43% 22% 35% C F+ C D- C- C C+ F D-
1.33 67% 55% 50% +15 +1 1.33 9% 2.5 .22 9% .30 84% .25 1.13 71% 18% 41% +5 0 1.12 27% 1.0 .27 19% .28 94% .27
Jan
4		 Denver B- F+ F A+ C 45% 4% 52% A C+ C+ F D A- A+ F B+ F+ C- B F+ C- 38% 22% 40% F+ D+ C F F C+ F F F
1.29 52% 0% 45% +4 +3 1.16 36% 0.9 .32 10% .45 59% .26 1.23 58% 36% 40% +3 0 1.08 30% 1.7 .50 15% .50 87% .43
Jan
7		 South Dakota A A+ F+ A+ A+ 54% 11% 36% B A+ F A+ D+ A- B C+ B F C- D+ F F 38% 20% 42% C+ F D F+ D- A A F C
1.35 77% 33% 45% +15 +2 1.38 19% 1.8 .33 12% .33 76% .25 1.17 58% 40% 48% +9 0 1.20 30% 1.1 .33 22% .30 94% .28
Jan
10		 Oral Roberts B+ A D- F C+ 60% 6% 33% A B C- F F A+ A+ B+ A+ D+ F A- A- D- 37% 20% 43% B- D B F+ C F F A+ C+
1.24 69% 33% 25% +2 +3 1.13 31% 0.6 .19 9% .52 74% .38 1.07 72% 30% 29% 0 0 1.02 24% 1.1 .26 14% .39 55% .21
Jan
15		 North Dakota B+ B+ F A+ A+ 38% 5% 57% B- A+ F A+ F C- A+ F A C- B F C C 56% 8% 36% F D+ D F F A+ F F F
1.25 69% 0% 67% +30 +2 1.67 13% 2.0 .25 21% .59 56% .33 1.10 50% 50% 33% -4 +3 1.00 30% 1.6 .48 21% .52 77% .40
Jan
17		 North Dakota St. D- C- A+ C- C- 31% 6% 63% B+ C F F F D- B+ F C+ A F A+ D+ C+ 30% 30% 41% A- B- D- A+ A B C B+ C+
0.93 60% 67% 33% +2 +1 1.08 19% 0.3 .06 22% .31 65% .20 0.98 75% 13% 36% -1 -2 0.96 36% 0.6 .21 19% .27 67% .18
Jan
22		 South Dakota St. D A- F C- C 42% 4% 53% A B- D B- D+ F A+ C A+ B B+ F B+ C 46% 15% 38% D- C- B- C+ B- B B A+ A+
1.06 68% 0% 33% +2 +2 1.11 23% 1.1 .26 20% .43 75% .32 0.99 50% 75% 30% 0 +1 1.04 27% 1.0 .27 19% .23 46% .11
Jan
24		 South Dakota A A- A A- A- 45% 8% 47% B- A- B- F+ C- B- A+ B- A+ D D+ A+ B C+ 46% 17% 37% D C A F F+ F C- D- D
1.30 68% 50% 39% +9 +2 1.24 36% 1.0 .36 14% .44 77% .34 1.12 60% 22% 30% -4 +1 0.96 20% 1.7 .34 10% .38 79% .30
Jan
29		 North Dakota C- C+ A+ F+ C- 55% 10% 35% B+ C D F F A C+ B- B- F D F C F 45% 11% 44% D F C F D D- A B- A
1.17 63% 60% 29% +3 +3 1.12 29% 0.9 .26 15% .39 74% .29 1.18 60% 67% 33% +4 +2 1.13 26% 1.2 .32 12% .25 67% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 UMKC A- A+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 3% 62% B A+ D- B- D+ C+ F A F C+ A- A+ A+ A+ 43% 18% 39% F A+ F D+ F C A- F B-
1.34 80% 50% 44% +18 +2 1.41 30% 1.1 .33 16% .15 78% .11 0.87 46% 20% 18% -18 +1 0.68 36% 0.9 .34 19% .20 75% .15
Feb
4		 South Dakota St. A- A+ A A- A 28% 11% 61% C+ A F F F A+ F A F+ B+ F F A+ C- 39% 7% 54% F D+ A A+ A+ D+ C- C- C-
1.23 73% 50% 39% +11 0 1.24 10% 0.0 .00 8% .21 83% .17 0.99 78% 100% 20% 0 +2 1.07 21% 0.4 .09 14% .28 73% .21
Feb
7		 Oral Roberts B- A+ A C- A 54% 12% 35% B A F D- F A+ A+ F+ A+ C C+ F A+ B 30% 14% 56% C+ B F D F+ D B A B+
1.23 71% 50% 33% +8 +2 1.23 12% 1.0 .12 5% .53 63% .34 1.00 53% 50% 25% -7 0 0.88 34% 1.1 .36 16% .27 65% .17
Feb
12		 Nebraska Omaha A A+ F A+ A+ 38% 7% 55% B+ A+ D- B D+ D F+ F F F F B F F 45% 17% 38% F+ F F C+ D- F+ F F F
1.27 81% 25% 45% +17 +2 1.39 23% 1.1 .26 16% .23 43% .10 1.32 71% 33% 40% +8 +1 1.21 33% 1.0 .33 12% .43 89% .38
Feb
14		 UMKC A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 52% 6% 42% A A+ C- A+ B A+ D+ F D B- F F A+ C 45% 14% 41% F D+ A+ F C D A+ F A+
1.43 69% 50% 50% +16 +3 1.40 34% 1.3 .45 10% .24 63% .15 0.88 65% 50% 17% -6 +1 0.93 18% 1.3 .24 16% .03 100% .03
Feb
21		 Denver C- A C+ B- B+ 54% 10% 37% A- A- D+ F F D- B- F F D+ B F C- D- 23% 23% 54% C D A+ D+ A D- D+ F D-
1.17 71% 40% 37% +9 +3 1.25 31% 0.8 .25 16% .35 40% .14 1.20 50% 67% 36% +6 -1 1.12 18% 1.2 .21 12% .33 85% .28
Feb
26		 North Dakota St. A A+ A+ B+ A+ 31% 6% 63% A- A+ F A+ C A+ F A+ F A C+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 13% 42% F A+ A F C+ F D+ C+ C-
1.29 76% 100% 38% +13 +1 1.31 15% 1.8 .27 12% .12 86% .10 0.95 57% 0% 18% -16 +1 0.73 24% 1.3 .31 11% .29 71% .21
Feb
28		 Nebraska Omaha D- C+ F C C- 45% 4% 51% A C D- F+ F+ B- F+ F F A+ A+ D- A+ A+ 40% 21% 40% C- A+ A A+ A+ F A- D B+
1.04 63% 0% 33% 0 +3 1.08 23% 0.9 .20 12% .23 46% .10 0.81 38% 45% 24% -12 0 0.77 17% 0.6 .10 11% .22 77% .17
Mar
5		 South Dakota St. B+ B A A+ A+ 37% 4% 59% A A+ F D F B A+ B+ A+ C+ F A+ A+ A 35% 18% 47% C A- F A+ D B C F F+
1.24 65% 50% 44% +12 +2 1.30 16% 1.0 .16 12% .44 80% .36 1.04 71% 22% 22% -7 0 0.88 43% 0.8 .35 19% .27 93% .25
Mar
7		 North Dakota F+ C+ A+ F F 51% 4% 45% A- F+ C+ F F A+ C- F F+ C+ F D- D- F 41% 16% 43% C F A+ A+ A+ C- F A F+
1.02 63% 100% 19% -5 +3 0.98 37% 0.6 .21 14% .36 60% .22 1.04 67% 43% 37% +6 +1 1.16 4% 0.0 .00 14% .47 62% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 100.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0%
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 100.0% 100.0
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%