St. Thomas
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.4 #122
Expected Predictive Rating +2.7 #119
Pace 69.8 #154
Improvement +2.6 #77

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #112 B+ F+ B- C- B+
Defense #154 C C- C+ C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #103 1.35 #20 +5.7 #22
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% #347 0.63 #342 -4.5 #357
Three Pointers 48% #36 1.08 #89 +5.2 #38
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #31 +6.4 #29
Freethrows 0.29 #227 71% #216 0.21 #226
Second Chance 20.3% #360 0.93 #307 0.19 #361
Turnovers 15.0% #68
Total Offense +2.2 #112

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #98 1.23 #276 -3.5 #296
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #289 0.70 #80 +1.9 #51
Three Pointers 41% #177 0.96 #94 +1.2 #128
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #191 -0.4 #191
Freethrows 0.27 #69 75% #316 0.20 #111
Second Chance 29.3% #122 1.17 #342 0.34 #258
Turnovers 18.0% #114
Total Defense +0.2 #154

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.1% #24 1.4% #299
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.1% #49 -0.6% #176
Possession Length 17.2 #168 17.0 #137
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #173 0.15 #93
Improvement +2.4 #62 +0.2 #174

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.8% 39.9% 38.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.4 13.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 32.0% 33.2% 11.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round39.8% 39.9% 38.0%
Second Round2.3% 2.4% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oral Roberts (Home) - 94.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 36 - 36 - 5
Quad 417 - 323 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 41 @St. Mary's L 58 - 84 12% -11  0 - 1 -11 -2 A F C -11 F+ B+ C
 Sat, Nov 8 337 Army W 83 - 76 93% +11  1 - 1 -7 +3 C- C A- -11 F+ C D+
 Mon, Nov 10 127 @Washington St. L 71 - 81 39% -15  1 - 2 -5 +0 B- F B- -5 C+ F B+
 Thu, Nov 13 249 Green Bay W 80 - 61 83% +19  2 - 2 +11 -1 B F C +12 A- C A-
 Sat, Nov 15 236 @Southeast Missouri St. W 84 - 72 64% +13  3 - 2 +11 +5 A+ F D +5 B C- C
 Fri, Nov 21 193 Northern Colorado W 73 - 72 66% -5  4 - 2 -1 -5 D+ C D +4 B F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 220 Cal St. Fullerton L 80 - 88 71% +1  4 - 3 -11 -0 F+ D A+ -10 C- C D-
 Sun, Nov 23 203 @Portland W 76 - 66 58% +5  5 - 3 +10 +2 C D+ A- +8 C F+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 165 @Montana St. L 74 - 82 49% -1  5 - 4 -5 +5 A+ F F+ -11 C- D+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 231 Weber St. W 88 - 65 81% +18  6 - 4 +16 +9 A B- B +7 B+ C A+
 Sat, Dec 13 209 @UNC Asheville W 80 - 59 59% +13  7 - 4 +21 +11 A- D B+ +11 A- C- A+
 Sat, Dec 20 293 UC Riverside W 92 - 78 88% +7  8 - 4 +4 +16 A+ D A+ -12 D- C- C-
 Sun, Jan 4 290 Denver W 92 - 88 88% +3  9 - 4 1 - 0 -6 +6 C+ D B+ -13 D+ F C
 Wed, Jan 7 285 South Dakota W 99 - 86 87% +15  10 - 4 2 - 0 +3 +15 A+ D- A -12 F D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 335 @Oral Roberts W 82 - 71 84% +2  11 - 4 3 - 0 +3 +11 B- F A+ -7 D C- F
 Thu, Jan 15 282 @North Dakota W 91 - 80 73% +5  12 - 4 4 - 0 +7 +11 A+ F C+ -4 C- F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 140 @North Dakota St. L 65 - 68 42% -3  12 - 5 4 - 1 +1 -6 C- F D +8 B- A- B-
 Thu, Jan 22 187 South Dakota St. W 74 - 69 75% -1  13 - 5 5 - 1 +0 -2 B- D+ F +2 C B- B-
 Sat, Jan 24 285 @South Dakota W 90 - 78 73% +2  14 - 5 6 - 1 +8 +14 B+ D+ B- -6 C D F
 Thu, Jan 29 282 North Dakota L 80 - 81 87% +2  14 - 6 6 - 2 -11 +2 C- F+ A+ -13 F C- F+
 Sun, Feb 1 360 UMKC W 99 - 64 96% +23  15 - 6 7 - 2 +17 +15 A+ C- C +0 A+ F+ C-
 Wed, Feb 4 187 @South Dakota St. W 77 - 62 55% +5  16 - 6 8 - 2 +16 +13 A+ F A+ +5 C- A+ D
 Sat, Feb 7 335 Oral Roberts W 83 - 67 94%
 Thu, Feb 12 239 @Nebraska Omaha W 78 - 74 66%
 Sat, Feb 14 360 @UMKC W 81 - 67 91%
 Sat, Feb 21 290 @Denver W 86 - 79 73%
 Thu, Feb 26 140 North Dakota St. W 77 - 73 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 239 Nebraska Omaha W 81 - 71 81%
Totals 21 - 7 13 - 3 +2 +2 B+ F+ B- +0 C C- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1.4 12.2 18.3 32.0 1st
2nd 1.6 8.7 23.7 24.8 6.1 64.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.3 2.7 10.0 25.6 37.1 24.4 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 75.1% 18.3    9.9 8.4
13-3 33.0% 12.2    3.4 8.5 0.4
12-4 5.5% 1.4    0.1 1.0 0.3
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 32.0% 32.0 13.4 17.9 0.7



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 24.4% 47.6% 47.6% 12.8 0.0 3.3 6.9 1.4 12.8
13-3 37.1% 39.3% 39.3% 13.4 0.9 7.0 6.1 0.5 22.5
12-4 25.6% 37.1% 37.1% 13.8 0.2 2.9 5.6 0.9 0.0 16.1
11-5 10.0% 34.8% 34.8% 14.0 0.0 0.8 1.8 0.9 6.5
10-6 2.7% 22.9% 22.9% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 2.1
9-7 0.3% 19.2% 19.2% 15.0 0.1 0.2
8-8 0.0% 0.0
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 39.8% 39.8% 0.0% 13.4 60.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 11.6% 100.0% 12.8 0.3 28.4 59.4 11.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.6%