St. Thomas
Summit League
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.9#329
Expected Predictive Rating-6.8#270
Pace67.0#236
Improvement+0.8#116

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#165
First Shot+0.2#175
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#180
Layup/Dunks-4.5#321
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#306
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.9#3
Freethrows-3.6#344
Improvement-0.2#202

Defense
Total Defense-11.1#357
First Shot-10.6#358
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#217
Layups/Dunks-3.8#291
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#291
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.1#350
Freethrows+2.1#64
Improvement+1.0#82
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 3.2% 10.8% 3.0%
.500 or above in Conference 10.1% 13.4% 10.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 28.6% 23.2% 28.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Away) - 2.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 9
Quad 47 - 99 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 355   @ Chicago St. L 72-77 66%     0 - 1 -20.1 -4.3 -16.0
  Nov 13, 2021 331   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 91-73 39%     1 - 1 +9.9 +11.1 -1.5
  Nov 15, 2021 246   @ Fordham L 78-84 19%     1 - 2 -7.6 +7.7 -15.3
  Nov 19, 2021 279   @ Youngstown St. L 75-79 23%     1 - 3 -7.3 +1.5 -8.9
  Nov 20, 2021 180   Niagara W 76-67 18%     2 - 3 +8.0 +15.0 -5.5
  Nov 21, 2021 322   SIU Edwardsville W 86-73 44%     3 - 3 +3.8 +15.1 -10.4
  Nov 27, 2021 173   @ Seattle L 64-81 11%     3 - 4 -14.5 -4.5 -11.0
  Dec 05, 2021 58   @ Drake L 62-84 2%    
  Dec 11, 2021 181   Montana St. L 73-80 25%    
  Dec 20, 2021 335   @ Nebraska Omaha L 75-77 43%    
  Dec 22, 2021 326   @ Denver L 72-76 37%    
  Jan 01, 2022 191   Western Illinois L 75-82 27%    
  Jan 06, 2022 170   Oral Roberts L 78-86 24%    
  Jan 08, 2022 215   UMKC L 68-74 30%    
  Jan 13, 2022 182   @ North Dakota St. L 65-78 12%    
  Jan 15, 2022 330   @ North Dakota L 75-78 40%    
  Jan 20, 2022 70   South Dakota St. L 77-92 9%    
  Jan 22, 2022 243   South Dakota L 74-78 38%    
  Jan 29, 2022 191   @ Western Illinois L 72-85 13%    
  Feb 03, 2022 215   @ UMKC L 65-77 14%    
  Feb 05, 2022 170   @ Oral Roberts L 75-89 11%    
  Feb 10, 2022 330   North Dakota W 78-75 60%    
  Feb 12, 2022 182   North Dakota St. L 68-75 28%    
  Feb 17, 2022 243   @ South Dakota L 71-81 20%    
  Feb 19, 2022 70   @ South Dakota St. L 74-95 3%    
  Feb 24, 2022 326   Denver W 75-73 58%    
  Feb 26, 2022 335   Nebraska Omaha W 78-74 65%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.6 1.0 0.1 6.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 3.7 4.2 1.7 0.2 11.2 6th
7th 0.4 3.3 6.2 5.6 1.8 0.2 17.5 7th
8th 0.7 4.1 8.5 5.7 1.3 0.1 20.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 5.9 8.2 5.3 1.0 0.1 21.9 9th
10th 1.0 3.1 6.0 5.5 2.2 0.6 0.1 18.5 10th
Total 1.0 3.2 7.4 12.0 14.9 17.7 14.4 11.2 8.3 5.4 2.6 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 4.3% 0.0    0.0
13-5 12.2% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.2% 0.2
12-6 0.7% 0.7
11-7 1.2% 1.2
10-8 2.6% 2.6
9-9 5.4% 5.4
8-10 8.3% 8.3
7-11 11.2% 11.2
6-12 14.4% 14.4
5-13 17.7% 17.7
4-14 14.9% 14.9
3-15 12.0% 12.0
2-16 7.4% 7.4
1-17 3.2% 3.2
0-18 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%