St. Thomas
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.2 #139
Expected Predictive Rating +2.4 #130
Pace 70.1 #161
Improvement +2.7 #54

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #124 A- D F B- A+
Defense #174 C C+ D+ B D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #55 1.35 #25 +7.5 #13
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #353 0.57 #349 -5.1 #360
Three Pointers 47% #70 1.04 #151 +3.6 #74
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #41 +6.0 #40
Freethrows 14.6 #306 73% #175 10.6 #289
Second Chance 19.4% #363 1.02 #209 0.20 #357
Turnovers 15.6% #115
Total Offense +1.5 #124

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #107 1.21 #250 -2.6 #266
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #280 0.60 #18 +2.6 #23
Three Pointers 42% #158 1.00 #174 -0.1 #192
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #176 -0.1 #177
Freethrows 15.3 #85 78% #348 11.9 #155
Second Chance 30.2% #156 1.20 #328 0.36 #275
Turnovers 19.1% #57
Total Defense -0.2 #174

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.8% #16 1.3% #287
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.7% #71 -1.1% #165
Possession Length 16.9 #142 17.1 #171
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #158 0.15 #110
Improvement +2.4 #38 +0.2 #168

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.7% 34.8% 26.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 99.5% 99.7% 98.1%
.500 or above in Conference 97.5% 98.4% 91.8%
Conference Champion 51.8% 55.3% 30.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round33.6% 34.8% 26.1%
Second Round1.7% 1.8% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Home) - 86.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 44 - 5
Quad 417 - 421 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 41 @St. Mary's L 58-84 10%     -10.9   0 - 1 -10.4 -3.0 -9.5
  Sat, Nov 8 324 Army W 83-76 90%     10.8   1 - 1 -5.8 +5.0 -10.7
  Mon, Nov 10 143 @Washington St. L 71-81 40%     -15.1   1 - 2 -6.1 +1.8 -8.1
  Thu, Nov 13 253 Green Bay W 80-61 82%     18.8   2 - 2 +10.6 +1.0 +9.6
  Sat, Nov 15 218 @Southeast Missouri St. W 84-72 56%     13.2   3 - 2 +11.7 +5.3 +5.4
  Fri, Nov 21 173 Northern Colorado W 73-72 59%     -5.3   4 - 2 +0.0 -4.3 +4.3
  Sat, Nov 22 257 Cal St. Fullerton L 80-88 75%     1.0   4 - 3 -13.6 -2.9 -10.1
  Sun, Nov 23 242 @Portland W 76-66 62%     5.4   5 - 3 +8.2 +1.6 +6.4
  Wed, Dec 3 156 @Montana St. L 74-82 43%     -1.3   5 - 4 -5.1 +5.1 -10.4
  Sun, Dec 7 223 Weber St. W 88-65 77%     17.8   6 - 4 +16.5 +10.0 +6.4
  Sat, Dec 13 240 @UNC Asheville W 80-59 61%     12.6   7 - 4 +19.3 +9.7 +10.6
  Sat, Dec 20 297 UC Riverside W 92-78 87%     6.5   8 - 4 +3.3 +13.9 -10.5
  Sun, Jan 4 267 Denver W 92-88 83%     2.8   9 - 4 1 - 0 -5.0 +6.8 -11.9
  Wed, Jan 7 293 South Dakota W 88-76 86%    
  Sat, Jan 10 298 @Oral Roberts W 78-72 71%    
  Thu, Jan 15 317 @North Dakota W 79-72 76%    
  Sat, Jan 17 152 @North Dakota St. L 73-75 43%    
  Thu, Jan 22 168 South Dakota St. W 80-75 68%    
  Sat, Jan 24 293 @South Dakota W 85-79 70%    
  Thu, Jan 29 317 North Dakota W 82-69 89%    
  Sun, Feb 1 333 UMKC W 81-66 91%    
  Wed, Feb 4 168 @South Dakota St. L 77-78 47%    
  Sat, Feb 7 298 Oral Roberts W 81-69 86%    
  Thu, Feb 12 256 @Nebraska Omaha W 78-74 64%    
  Sat, Feb 14 333 @UMKC W 78-69 79%    
  Sat, Feb 21 267 @Denver W 84-80 65%    
  Thu, Feb 26 152 North Dakota St. W 76-72 64%    
  Sat, Feb 28 256 Nebraska Omaha W 81-71 82%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 4.1 10.8 15.3 12.5 6.7 1.8 51.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 5.2 9.6 7.8 2.6 0.3 26.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.6 5.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 2.4 0.8 0.1 5.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.8 7.1 11.7 16.5 19.1 18.0 12.8 6.7 1.8 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
15-1 100.0% 6.7    6.6 0.1
14-2 97.3% 12.5    11.3 1.1
13-3 85.3% 15.3    11.2 4.0 0.1
12-4 56.8% 10.8    5.6 4.6 0.7
11-5 25.1% 4.1    1.1 1.9 1.0 0.1
10-6 4.7% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 51.8% 51.8 37.8 11.8 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.8% 56.6% 56.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.8
15-1 6.7% 51.1% 51.1% 12.9 0.0 0.8 2.1 0.5 0.0 3.3
14-2 12.8% 46.1% 46.1% 13.4 0.0 0.4 2.8 2.4 0.2 6.9
13-3 18.0% 40.1% 40.1% 13.8 0.1 2.2 4.0 0.9 0.0 10.8
12-4 19.1% 33.5% 33.5% 14.1 0.0 1.1 3.7 1.6 0.0 12.7
11-5 16.5% 28.3% 28.3% 14.3 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.8 0.1 11.8
10-6 11.7% 22.7% 22.7% 14.7 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.2 9.0
9-7 7.1% 19.9% 19.9% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.2 5.7
8-8 3.8% 17.5% 17.5% 15.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 3.1
7-9 1.7% 14.9% 14.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.4
6-10 0.7% 10.2% 10.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.6
5-11 0.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 33.7% 33.7% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 8.9 14.1 7.3 1.1 66.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 11.9 0.3 0.3 25.1 60.5 13.5 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%