North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#155
Expected Predictive Rating+1.2#153
Pace69.7#178
Improvement-1.0#248

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#157
First Shot-3.5#280
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#16
Layup/Dunks-3.7#305
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#96
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#212
Freethrows-0.5#219
Improvement+2.3#42

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#157
First Shot-3.3#291
After Offensive Rebounds+3.4#11
Layups/Dunks-1.8#250
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#292
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#219
Freethrows+0.9#118
Improvement-3.2#345
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.5% 26.8% 19.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 96.3% 97.6% 89.8%
.500 or above in Conference 94.5% 96.3% 85.3%
Conference Champion 34.1% 37.5% 17.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 1.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.7%
First Round25.4% 26.7% 18.9%
Second Round1.1% 1.2% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Home) - 83.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 34 - 65 - 7
Quad 415 - 320 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 154 @Oregon St. L 65-67 38%     0 - 1 +1.4 -2.1 +3.3
  Wed, Nov 5 176 @UC Davis L 68-80 44%     0 - 2 -10.2 -3.0 -7.4
  Tue, Nov 11 212 Cal St. Northridge W 90-68 74%     1 - 2 +15.7 +1.3 +11.5
  Mon, Nov 17 130 Southern Illinois W 92-85 55%     2 - 2 +6.0 +10.7 -5.4
  Wed, Nov 26 236 Jacksonville St. W 56-43 68%     3 - 2 +8.5 -10.2 +20.4
  Fri, Nov 28 136 @Arkansas St. L 80-85 OT 34%     3 - 3 -0.3 -0.6 +0.8
  Wed, Dec 3 209 @Montana W 81-72 52%     4 - 3 +8.8 +7.4 +1.5
  Sat, Dec 6 289 Northern Arizona W 69-68 83%     5 - 3 -8.7 -8.1 -0.6
  Thu, Dec 11 305 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 80-69 70%     6 - 3 +5.8 +2.2 +3.1
  Sat, Dec 13 143 @Drake W 99-94 36%     7 - 3 +9.2 +24.6 -15.5
  Sun, Dec 21 131 UC Irvine L 73-74 44%     7 - 4 +0.8 +9.9 -9.1
  Mon, Dec 22 202 @UTEP L 66-76 50%     7 - 5 -9.7 -2.7 -7.3
  Wed, Dec 31 291 South Dakota W 86-76 83%    
  Sat, Jan 3 303 Oral Roberts W 81-70 86%    
  Thu, Jan 8 343 @UMKC W 77-68 80%    
  Sat, Jan 10 221 @Nebraska Omaha W 76-75 55%    
  Wed, Jan 14 172 South Dakota St. W 78-74 65%    
  Sat, Jan 17 135 St. Thomas W 76-74 56%    
  Thu, Jan 22 290 @Denver W 82-78 64%    
  Sat, Jan 24 303 @Oral Roberts W 78-73 69%    
  Sat, Jan 31 291 @South Dakota W 83-79 65%    
  Thu, Feb 5 290 Denver W 85-75 82%    
  Sat, Feb 7 221 Nebraska Omaha W 79-72 74%    
  Sat, Feb 14 333 @North Dakota W 78-70 76%    
  Wed, Feb 18 172 @South Dakota St. L 75-77 43%    
  Sat, Feb 21 343 UMKC W 80-65 91%    
  Thu, Feb 26 135 @St. Thomas L 73-77 35%    
  Sat, Feb 28 333 North Dakota W 81-67 90%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.4 7.3 10.9 8.4 3.9 0.9 34.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.1 9.8 9.1 3.6 0.4 27.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.0 7.8 5.1 1.2 0.1 18.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.9 2.3 0.2 0.0 10.5 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 2.5 1.0 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.2 6.2 10.5 14.6 17.5 17.6 14.6 8.8 3.9 0.9 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
15-1 100.0% 3.9    3.8 0.1
14-2 95.4% 8.4    7.2 1.2 0.0
13-3 74.8% 10.9    7.0 3.6 0.3
12-4 41.8% 7.3    2.9 3.4 1.0 0.1
11-5 13.6% 2.4    0.4 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 34.1% 34.1 22.1 9.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.9% 48.6% 48.6% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-1 3.9% 47.7% 47.7% 13.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.1
14-2 8.8% 40.9% 40.9% 13.5 0.2 1.6 1.7 0.2 5.2
13-3 14.6% 34.5% 34.5% 13.9 0.0 1.2 2.8 0.9 0.0 9.6
12-4 17.6% 29.0% 29.0% 14.2 0.0 0.7 2.6 1.7 0.1 12.5
11-5 17.5% 23.6% 23.6% 14.5 0.3 1.8 1.9 0.2 13.4
10-6 14.6% 18.3% 18.3% 14.8 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.3 11.9
9-7 10.5% 14.8% 14.8% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.4 8.9
8-8 6.2% 11.7% 11.7% 15.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 5.5
7-9 3.2% 9.7% 9.7% 15.7 0.1 0.2 2.9
6-10 1.5% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.1 1.4
5-11 0.6% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-12 0.2% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 25.5% 25.5% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.9 5.0 10.4 7.6 1.6 74.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.9 0.8 26.4 57.6 14.4 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%