North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.2#241
Expected Predictive Rating-5.8#272
Pace68.8#167
Improvement+2.1#9

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#199
First Shot+1.6#116
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#333
Layup/Dunks-1.8#253
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#99
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#105
Freethrows+0.2#161
Improvement+1.5#14

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#277
First Shot-4.0#303
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#127
Layups/Dunks-3.6#315
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#326
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#111
Freethrows+0.1#173
Improvement+0.6#99
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 1.5% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 3.0% 5.8% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 87.4% 96.0% 79.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.1% 1.3% 1.0%
First Round0.8% 0.9% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Away) - 48.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 32 - 42 - 10
Quad 49 - 711 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 18   @ Arkansas L 58-76 4%     0 - 1 -1.4 -7.4 +6.8
  Nov 10, 2022 7   @ Kansas L 59-82 2%     0 - 2 -3.6 -5.6 +2.6
  Nov 13, 2022 208   Pacific L 86-91 51%     0 - 3 -9.5 -0.7 -8.2
  Nov 17, 2022 117   @ Indiana St. L 75-101 18%     0 - 4 -20.5 -4.2 -13.3
  Nov 25, 2022 268   Northern Colorado L 70-80 55%     0 - 5 -15.6 -9.0 -6.4
  Nov 26, 2022 54   @ New Mexico L 55-76 7%     0 - 6 -8.7 -14.6 +6.4
  Nov 27, 2022 257   Jacksonville St. L 71-81 53%     0 - 7 -15.1 -3.5 -11.8
  Dec 03, 2022 161   @ Eastern Washington L 70-78 24%     0 - 8 -5.0 -2.4 -2.6
  Dec 05, 2022 166   @ Portland W 67-62 25%     1 - 8 +7.9 -8.9 +16.7
  Dec 10, 2022 189   Montana L 75-82 49%     1 - 9 -10.9 +2.3 -13.5
  Dec 19, 2022 256   @ Western Illinois L 60-79 42%     1 - 10 0 - 1 -21.1 -14.3 -7.2
  Dec 21, 2022 266   @ St. Thomas L 68-78 45%     1 - 11 0 - 2 -12.8 -3.1 -10.6
  Dec 30, 2022 322   @ North Dakota W 71-49 58%     2 - 11 1 - 2 +15.6 +1.2 +16.6
  Jan 05, 2023 200   South Dakota St. W 65-59 50%     3 - 11 2 - 2 +1.8 +3.2 -0.4
  Jan 07, 2023 286   South Dakota W 73-61 69%     4 - 11 3 - 2 +2.6 -5.3 +8.1
  Jan 12, 2023 318   @ Denver W 90-70 57%     5 - 11 4 - 2 +14.1 +16.2 -1.2
  Jan 14, 2023 310   @ Nebraska Omaha W 78-65 54%     6 - 11 5 - 2 +7.7 +5.0 +3.3
  Jan 19, 2023 69   Oral Roberts L 69-92 18%     6 - 12 5 - 3 -17.5 -6.4 -10.4
  Jan 21, 2023 259   UMKC L 73-75 64%     6 - 13 5 - 4 -9.9 +1.6 -11.5
  Jan 27, 2023 322   North Dakota W 91-75 77%     7 - 13 6 - 4 +4.1 +13.7 -9.1
  Feb 02, 2023 286   @ South Dakota L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 04, 2023 200   @ South Dakota St. L 68-73 29%    
  Feb 09, 2023 310   Nebraska Omaha W 77-70 74%    
  Feb 11, 2023 318   Denver W 78-71 76%    
  Feb 16, 2023 259   @ UMKC L 65-67 42%    
  Feb 18, 2023 69   @ Oral Roberts L 71-86 8%    
  Feb 23, 2023 266   St. Thomas W 75-71 66%    
  Feb 25, 2023 256   Western Illinois W 75-72 63%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.9 9.3 9.3 2.7 0.2 23.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 13.5 12.4 2.2 0.0 29.9 3rd
4th 0.5 9.6 11.5 1.8 0.0 23.5 4th
5th 0.0 3.2 8.3 1.2 0.0 12.7 5th
6th 0.5 4.5 1.4 0.0 6.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 1.6 0.0 3.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.3 2.5 9.8 21.2 28.1 23.6 11.5 2.7 0.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 6.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.2% 4.3% 4.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 2.7% 4.0% 4.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.6
12-6 11.5% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3 11.2
11-7 23.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.3 23.2
10-8 28.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.3 27.8
9-9 21.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 21.1
8-10 9.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 9.8
7-11 2.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.5
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.2 98.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 4.3% 15.4 2.6 1.7
Lose Out 0.3%