North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#151
Expected Predictive Rating+2.2#141
Pace69.8#180
Improvement+0.2#178

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#211
First Shot-6.6#342
After Offensive Rebound+5.1#5
Layup/Dunks-5.2#336
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#100
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#267
Freethrows-0.2#187
Improvement-0.4#215

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#113
First Shot-1.9#244
After Offensive Rebounds+3.8#9
Layups/Dunks-2.9#289
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#296
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#165
Freethrows+2.1#62
Improvement+0.5#140
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.2% 31.5% 25.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 96.4% 99.0% 95.2%
.500 or above in Conference 94.3% 96.3% 93.4%
Conference Champion 37.2% 43.0% 34.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four0.5% 0.3% 0.6%
First Round27.0% 31.4% 24.9%
Second Round1.3% 1.8% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Away) - 32.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 34 - 55 - 7
Quad 415 - 319 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 168 @Oregon St. L 65-67 42%     0 - 1 +0.5 -3.1 +3.4
  Wed, Nov 5 173 @UC Davis L 68-80 43%     0 - 2 -9.9 -0.9 -9.2
  Tue, Nov 11 253 Cal St. Northridge W 90-68 79%     1 - 2 +13.8 +0.8 +10.1
  Mon, Nov 17 125 Southern Illinois W 92-85 53%     2 - 2 +6.5 +9.8 -4.0
  Wed, Nov 26 239 Jacksonville St. W 56-43 67%     3 - 2 +8.7 -8.5 +18.8
  Fri, Nov 28 149 @Arkansas St. L 80-85 OT 38%     3 - 3 -1.5 -0.1 -0.9
  Wed, Dec 3 202 @Montana W 81-72 50%     4 - 3 +9.3 +7.0 +2.3
  Sat, Dec 6 258 Northern Arizona W 69-68 80%     5 - 3 -7.4 -8.0 +0.6
  Thu, Dec 11 303 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 80-69 70%     6 - 3 +6.0 +1.3 +4.3
  Sat, Dec 13 130 @Drake L 66-71 32%    
  Sun, Dec 21 122 UC Irvine L 67-69 41%    
  Wed, Dec 31 283 South Dakota W 84-74 82%    
  Sat, Jan 3 301 Oral Roberts W 81-70 85%    
  Thu, Jan 8 343 @UMKC W 75-66 80%    
  Sat, Jan 10 237 @Nebraska Omaha W 74-72 56%    
  Wed, Jan 14 158 South Dakota St. W 74-71 63%    
  Sat, Jan 17 152 St. Thomas W 74-71 62%    
  Thu, Jan 22 295 @Denver W 79-74 66%    
  Sat, Jan 24 301 @Oral Roberts W 78-73 68%    
  Sat, Jan 31 283 @South Dakota W 81-77 63%    
  Thu, Feb 5 295 Denver W 82-71 83%    
  Sat, Feb 7 237 Nebraska Omaha W 77-69 75%    
  Sat, Feb 14 336 @North Dakota W 76-68 77%    
  Wed, Feb 18 158 @South Dakota St. L 71-74 41%    
  Sat, Feb 21 343 UMKC W 78-63 91%    
  Thu, Feb 26 152 @St. Thomas L 71-74 40%    
  Sat, Feb 28 336 North Dakota W 79-65 90%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.6 7.7 11.4 9.4 4.6 1.2 37.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.0 9.0 8.3 3.3 0.4 25.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.7 7.4 4.8 1.1 0.0 17.5 3rd
4th 0.3 2.5 4.5 2.3 0.3 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.7 1.1 0.1 5.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.2 6.3 9.9 14.0 16.7 17.2 14.8 9.8 4.6 1.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
15-1 100.0% 4.6    4.5 0.1
14-2 95.6% 9.4    8.2 1.2 0.0
13-3 77.1% 11.4    7.5 3.6 0.2
12-4 45.0% 7.7    3.2 3.5 0.9 0.0
11-5 15.7% 2.6    0.5 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
10-6 2.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 37.2% 37.2 25.2 9.7 2.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.2% 58.0% 58.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5
15-1 4.6% 49.3% 49.3% 13.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 2.3
14-2 9.8% 45.3% 45.3% 13.5 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.8 0.4 0.0 5.4
13-3 14.8% 36.3% 36.3% 13.9 0.1 1.3 2.8 1.2 0.0 9.4
12-4 17.2% 30.4% 30.4% 14.3 0.0 0.7 2.3 2.0 0.1 12.0
11-5 16.7% 24.6% 24.6% 14.6 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.0 0.3 12.6
10-6 14.0% 19.3% 19.3% 14.8 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.4 11.3
9-7 9.9% 13.3% 13.3% 15.2 0.2 0.7 0.4 8.6
8-8 6.3% 11.1% 11.1% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 5.6
7-9 3.2% 8.7% 8.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.9
6-10 1.5% 6.9% 6.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.4
5-11 0.6% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-12 0.2% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 27.2% 27.2% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 5.5 10.0 8.3 1.9 72.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.5 1.9 1.9 47.2 41.5 7.5