North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#182
Expected Predictive Rating+1.5#154
Pace62.6#328
Improvement-0.8#246

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#185
First Shot-0.6#193
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#158
Layup/Dunks-3.8#305
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#252
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#58
Freethrows+0.4#155
Improvement+0.8#92

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#192
First Shot-1.9#241
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#104
Layups/Dunks-2.3#258
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#309
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#140
Freethrows+1.6#91
Improvement-1.7#313
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.8% 11.3% 8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.4 15.0
.500 or above 76.8% 88.4% 69.3%
.500 or above in Conference 84.7% 89.6% 81.5%
Conference Champion 9.7% 13.4% 7.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.4% 0.7%
First Four1.0% 0.6% 1.3%
First Round9.2% 10.9% 8.1%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Away) - 39.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 43 - 9
Quad 414 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 316   @ Cal Poly W 60-57 68%     1 - 0 -2.8 -7.1 +4.6
  Nov 15, 2021 147   @ UNLV L 62-64 30%     1 - 1 +2.5 -3.9 +6.3
  Nov 16, 2021 4   @ Arizona L 45-97 3%     1 - 2 -31.1 -17.7 -12.5
  Nov 22, 2021 155   Tarleton St. W 54-53 55%     2 - 2 -1.3 -5.4 +4.4
  Nov 27, 2021 351   Idaho W 90-73 93%     3 - 2 -0.8 +1.1 -3.3
  Nov 30, 2021 66   @ Creighton L 55-80 14%     3 - 3 -14.6 -4.6 -13.8
  Dec 07, 2021 181   @ Montana St. L 67-70 39%    
  Dec 10, 2021 271   Cal St. Northridge W 68-60 77%    
  Dec 13, 2021 174   Indiana St. W 71-69 59%    
  Dec 17, 2021 187   @ Pacific L 63-66 40%    
  Dec 22, 2021 330   North Dakota W 75-62 88%    
  Dec 30, 2021 70   South Dakota St. L 73-78 31%    
  Jan 01, 2022 243   South Dakota W 71-65 72%    
  Jan 06, 2022 326   @ Denver W 70-64 71%    
  Jan 08, 2022 335   @ Nebraska Omaha W 72-64 77%    
  Jan 13, 2022 329   St. Thomas W 78-65 88%    
  Jan 15, 2022 191   Western Illinois W 72-69 62%    
  Jan 20, 2022 215   @ UMKC L 62-64 43%    
  Jan 22, 2022 170   @ Oral Roberts L 72-76 37%    
  Jan 27, 2022 243   @ South Dakota W 68-67 51%    
  Jan 29, 2022 70   @ South Dakota St. L 70-81 16%    
  Feb 03, 2022 335   Nebraska Omaha W 75-61 89%    
  Feb 05, 2022 326   Denver W 73-61 85%    
  Feb 10, 2022 191   @ Western Illinois L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 12, 2022 329   @ St. Thomas W 75-68 72%    
  Feb 17, 2022 170   Oral Roberts W 75-73 58%    
  Feb 19, 2022 215   UMKC W 65-61 64%    
  Feb 26, 2022 330   @ North Dakota W 72-65 72%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.0 3.7 2.2 1.0 0.1 9.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 3.4 7.3 6.5 2.8 0.5 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 5.2 7.6 4.3 1.0 0.0 20.1 3rd
4th 0.3 2.2 6.1 6.9 2.5 0.3 18.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.7 4.7 1.5 0.1 14.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.7 2.5 0.6 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.3 1.0 1.9 0.9 0.2 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.5 4.3 6.9 10.8 13.4 14.6 13.7 12.6 9.5 6.4 2.7 1.0 0.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 1.0    0.9 0.1
16-2 80.8% 2.2    1.8 0.4
15-3 57.2% 3.7    1.8 1.7 0.1
14-4 21.3% 2.0    0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0
13-5 5.3% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.7% 9.7 5.3 3.4 0.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 5.9% 5.9% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.0% 56.9% 54.8% 2.0% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 4.5%
16-2 2.7% 32.4% 32.4% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8
15-3 6.4% 26.4% 26.4% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.0 4.7
14-4 9.5% 17.9% 17.9% 14.6 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 7.8
13-5 12.6% 13.1% 13.1% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 10.9
12-6 13.7% 8.7% 8.7% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 12.5
11-7 14.6% 5.0% 5.0% 15.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 13.9
10-8 13.4% 5.7% 5.7% 15.7 0.2 0.6 12.6
9-9 10.8% 4.0% 4.0% 15.8 0.1 0.4 10.4
8-10 6.9% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.2 6.7
7-11 4.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 4.3
6-12 2.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.5
5-13 1.2% 1.2
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 3.9 2.4 90.2 0.0%