Denver
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.5 #274
Expected Predictive Rating -5.6 #254
Pace 70.6 #129
Improvement +0.9 #144

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #117 C C B C+ D
Defense #360 D D- D- C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #321 1.07 #285 -4.7 #332
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #55 0.82 #87 +3.4 #36
Three Pointers 40% #209 1.12 #40 +1.5 #125
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #171 +0.2 #171
Freethrows 0.30 #192 76% #46 0.23 #142
Second Chance 28.8% #230 1.15 #42 0.33 #135
Turnovers 14.7% #55
Total Offense +2.0 #117

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #59 1.26 #310 -5.0 #337
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #285 0.73 #127 +1.6 #69
Three Pointers 40% #229 1.14 #331 -1.7 #264
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #329 -5.1 #329
Freethrows 0.31 #204 69% #33 0.21 #161
Second Chance 35.5% #338 1.12 #303 0.40 #337
Turnovers 13.2% #345
Total Defense -8.5 #360

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.5% #323 1.5% #306
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.9% #123 8.4% #324
Possession Length 17.2 #163 16.6 #67
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #337 0.21 #293
Improvement -2.5 #312 +3.3 #29

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 3.5% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.9% 2.0% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 25.1% 43.5% 12.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.4% 2.5% 2.3%
First Round1.9% 2.3% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Away) - 39.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 6
Quad 33 - 55 - 11
Quad 47 - 711 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 131 @Seattle L 73 - 84 15% -6  0 - 1 -6 +2 C- B- D -7 C+ D D
 Thu, Nov 6 45 @Washington L 70 - 84 3% -8  0 - 2 +1 +3 A- D+ D -2 C D+ D
 Sun, Nov 9 157 @Montana St. W 75 - 73 19% -2  1 - 2 +5 +11 A+ A+ F -6 C+ F F+
 Sat, Nov 15 343 Texas San Antonio L 79 - 84 78% -4  1 - 3 -20 +5 B- F A+ -25 F D- D
 Fri, Nov 21 102 @Colorado St. W 83 - 81 10% +2  2 - 3 +10 +25 A- C A+ -15 C F C-
 Mon, Nov 24 2 @Arizona L 73 - 103 1% -23  2 - 4 -3 +9 B- A C -9 F B B
 Wed, Nov 26 108 @Wyoming L 59 - 101 11% -16  2 - 5 -35 -11 F B C -24 F+ F F+
 Wed, Dec 3 234 Eastern Washington W 93 - 89 52% +0  3 - 5 -3 +15 A+ F A+ -19 F D D+
 Sat, Dec 6 243 @Idaho St. L 79 - 93 32% -6  3 - 6 -16 +6 C- A C -22 F F F
 Sat, Dec 13 217 Cal St. Fullerton L 86 - 105 49% -19  3 - 7 -25 +4 F+ A+ A- -27 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 20 180 @Northern Colorado W 86 - 79 22% -2  4 - 7 +9 +10 A- F+ C -2 B- D+ F+
 Mon, Dec 22 68 @Tulsa L 85 - 90 6% -4  4 - 8 +6 +6 D+ A+ D- +1 A D+ D-
 Wed, Dec 31 360 UMKC W 87 - 74 85% +12  5 - 8 1 - 0 -5 +8 C- D+ A+ -13 C F F
 Sun, Jan 4 123 @St. Thomas L 88 - 92 14% -3  5 - 9 1 - 1 +1 +15 C+ A+ B+ -14 C F F
 Thu, Jan 8 188 @South Dakota St. L 79 - 87 23% -1  5 - 10 1 - 2 -7 +7 D+ C+ A -13 C F F+
 Sat, Jan 10 285 @South Dakota L 72 - 82 40% -2  5 - 11 1 - 3 -14 -5 F C- C+ -9 F A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 336 Oral Roberts W 98 - 87 77% +6  6 - 11 2 - 3 -3 +19 A+ C+ B -22 F D- F
 Thu, Jan 22 149 North Dakota St. L 77 - 82 34% -5  6 - 12 2 - 4 -7 +8 C C+ A+ -16 F D+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 281 North Dakota L 86 - 93 63% -0  6 - 13 2 - 5 -17 +3 B- F B -19 F D D-
 Wed, Jan 28 360 @UMKC W 69 - 61 70% -0  7 - 13 3 - 5 -4 -4 F C B +0 C+ B- F
 Sat, Jan 31 242 Nebraska Omaha L 82 - 84 55% +1  7 - 14 3 - 6 -10 +3 C D+ A+ -13 D C F
 Thu, Feb 5 149 @North Dakota St. W 78 - 71 17% +5  8 - 14 4 - 6 +11 +6 C- C+ A+ +5 A+ C D
 Sat, Feb 7 281 @North Dakota L 81 - 84 40%
 Thu, Feb 12 188 South Dakota St. L 81 - 83 44%
 Sat, Feb 14 242 @Nebraska Omaha L 78 - 83 33%
 Thu, Feb 19 285 South Dakota W 88 - 84 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 123 St. Thomas L 79 - 85 29%
 Thu, Feb 26 336 @Oral Roberts W 80 - 78 56%
Totals 11 - 17 7 - 9 -6 +2 C C B -8 D D- D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 0.8 2.5 3rd
4th 0.4 5.0 3.9 0.3 9.6 4th
5th 0.2 7.1 10.3 0.7 18.3 5th
6th 0.3 8.0 16.1 2.3 0.0 26.7 6th
7th 3.1 13.9 19.8 5.0 0.1 41.9 7th
8th 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 9th
Total 3.8 14.5 28.0 28.6 17.8 6.2 1.2 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 1.2% 6.1% 6.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 1.1
9-7 6.2% 4.4% 4.4% 15.5 0.1 0.1 5.9
8-8 17.8% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8 17.0
7-9 28.6% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.9 27.7
6-10 28.0% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.7 27.3
5-11 14.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 14.3
4-12 3.8% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 3.7
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 15.9 97.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 2.0%