Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.4#39
Expected Predictive Rating+12.8#32
Pace64.0#293
Improvement+0.7#98

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#50
First Shot+3.7#70
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#75
Layup/Dunks-2.1#266
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#5
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#207
Freethrows+0.5#136
Improvement+0.2#150

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#32
First Shot+5.3#38
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#96
Layups/Dunks+1.4#116
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#267
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#60
Freethrows+1.7#64
Improvement+0.5#101
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 4.3% 8.3% 1.5%
Top 6 Seed 21.8% 35.6% 12.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.5% 86.0% 63.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 70.7% 85.1% 60.9%
Average Seed 7.7 7.0 8.3
.500 or above 98.8% 99.9% 98.0%
.500 or above in Conference 79.3% 91.6% 70.7%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.3% 4.8% 9.1%
First Round68.8% 83.7% 58.6%
Second Round37.6% 49.1% 29.7%
Sweet Sixteen13.7% 19.0% 10.0%
Elite Eight5.2% 7.3% 3.8%
Final Four1.9% 2.8% 1.3%
Championship Game0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Rutgers (Neutral) - 41.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b5 - 26 - 9
Quad 24 - 210 - 11
Quad 34 - 114 - 12
Quad 45 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 293   Northern Arizona W 73-55 96%     1 - 0 +8.3 -1.2 +10.8
  Nov 11, 2022 13   Gonzaga L 63-64 37%     1 - 1 +13.9 -7.2 +21.2
  Nov 15, 2022 32   Kentucky W 86-77 2OT 47%     2 - 1 +21.3 +3.5 +16.2
  Nov 18, 2022 62   Villanova W 73-71 71%     3 - 1 +7.7 +9.3 -1.4
  Nov 24, 2022 2   Alabama L 70-81 23%     3 - 2 +8.0 +5.4 +3.0
  Nov 25, 2022 48   Oregon W 74-70 56%     4 - 2 +14.0 +11.8 +2.6
  Nov 27, 2022 166   @ Portland W 78-77 79%     5 - 2 +3.9 +12.3 -8.3
  Nov 30, 2022 127   @ Notre Dame L 52-70 73%     5 - 3 -13.0 -14.2 -1.5
  Dec 04, 2022 50   Northwestern L 63-70 66%     5 - 4 0 - 1 +0.2 -0.6 +0.3
  Dec 07, 2022 45   @ Penn St. W 67-58 43%     6 - 4 1 - 1 +22.2 +1.2 +21.2
  Dec 10, 2022 207   Brown W 68-50 92%     7 - 4 +13.5 +4.9 +11.0
  Dec 21, 2022 249   Oakland W 67-54 95%     8 - 4 +5.6 -6.3 +12.9
  Dec 30, 2022 183   Buffalo W 89-68 91%     9 - 4 +17.7 +8.6 +7.8
  Jan 03, 2023 94   Nebraska W 74-56 80%     10 - 4 2 - 1 +20.5 +11.5 +10.6
  Jan 07, 2023 58   Michigan W 59-53 69%     11 - 4 3 - 1 +12.3 -9.3 +21.8
  Jan 10, 2023 57   @ Wisconsin W 69-65 48%     12 - 4 4 - 1 +15.8 +13.8 +2.7
  Jan 13, 2023 17   @ Illinois L 66-75 30%     12 - 5 4 - 2 +7.9 +7.5 -0.3
  Jan 16, 2023 4   Purdue L 63-64 35%     12 - 6 4 - 3 +14.4 +5.5 +8.8
  Jan 19, 2023 20   Rutgers W 70-57 51%     13 - 6 5 - 3 +24.0 +14.5 +10.9
  Jan 22, 2023 21   @ Indiana L 69-82 31%     13 - 7 5 - 4 +3.5 +6.3 -3.3
  Jan 26, 2023 30   Iowa W 63-61 56%     14 - 7 6 - 4 +11.8 -5.5 +17.4
  Jan 29, 2023 4   @ Purdue L 61-77 19%     14 - 8 6 - 5 +4.8 +0.3 +3.7
  Feb 04, 2023 20   Rutgers L 61-63 41%    
  Feb 07, 2023 31   Maryland W 67-65 58%    
  Feb 12, 2023 29   @ Ohio St. L 67-71 34%    
  Feb 15, 2023 173   Minnesota W 70-56 91%    
  Feb 18, 2023 58   @ Michigan L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 21, 2023 21   Indiana W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 25, 2023 30   @ Iowa L 72-76 35%    
  Feb 28, 2023 94   @ Nebraska W 66-62 62%    
  Mar 04, 2023 29   Ohio St. W 70-68 56%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.9 5.4 2.7 0.4 10.4 2nd
3rd 1.0 7.4 3.8 0.3 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.1 5.4 6.9 0.6 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 1.1 9.9 2.3 0.0 13.3 5th
6th 0.1 5.3 6.7 0.2 12.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 8.9 1.7 0.0 11.4 7th
8th 0.1 3.6 5.5 0.1 9.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 5.7 1.2 7.5 9th
10th 0.1 2.0 3.1 0.1 5.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.3 0.6 3.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 1.1 5.6 13.9 22.2 24.9 18.7 9.8 3.2 0.5 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 21.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.5% 100.0% 9.7% 90.3% 2.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 3.2% 99.9% 9.4% 90.5% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 9.8% 99.7% 8.3% 91.4% 5.5 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.6 3.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-8 18.7% 97.9% 6.6% 91.3% 6.7 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.7 6.6 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.4 97.8%
11-9 24.9% 89.4% 6.0% 83.4% 8.1 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.2 7.6 5.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 2.6 88.7%
10-10 22.2% 66.8% 5.1% 61.6% 9.7 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.8 5.7 3.2 0.1 7.4 65.0%
9-11 13.9% 23.6% 4.5% 19.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.3 0.5 0.0 10.6 20.0%
8-12 5.6% 5.6% 4.7% 0.9% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.3 0.9%
7-13 1.1% 4.7% 4.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 1.1
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 72.5% 6.0% 66.5% 7.7 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.0 6.7 10.8 13.3 12.3 9.7 8.5 5.9 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 27.5 70.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 2.7 4.9 38.1 40.3 16.4 0.4
Lose Out 0.1%