Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.8#22
Expected Predictive Rating+16.1#17
Pace72.1#97
Improvement+0.4#143

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#58
First Shot+3.8#69
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#120
Layup/Dunks+5.4#30
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#145
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#282
Freethrows+1.5#88
Improvement-0.5#237

Defense
Total Defense+9.2#5
First Shot+10.8#4
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#286
Layups/Dunks+1.3#145
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#51
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#25
Freethrows+2.1#62
Improvement+0.9#93
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.0% 1.3% 0.3%
#1 Seed 5.2% 6.6% 2.0%
Top 2 Seed 13.9% 17.0% 7.1%
Top 4 Seed 37.7% 43.4% 25.0%
Top 6 Seed 60.1% 66.5% 45.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.3% 90.2% 77.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 85.1% 89.2% 76.3%
Average Seed 5.3 5.0 6.1
.500 or above 93.7% 96.1% 88.5%
.500 or above in Conference 79.5% 82.6% 72.7%
Conference Champion 9.8% 11.1% 6.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.5% 1.3%
First Four3.9% 3.2% 5.6%
First Round84.7% 89.0% 75.2%
Second Round60.2% 65.1% 49.2%
Sweet Sixteen30.1% 33.4% 22.8%
Elite Eight13.6% 15.2% 10.2%
Final Four5.8% 6.6% 4.0%
Championship Game2.4% 2.7% 1.6%
National Champion1.0% 1.3% 0.5%

Next Game: Louisville (Home) - 68.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 9
Quad 27 - 214 - 11
Quad 34 - 018 - 11
Quad 43 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 9   Kansas L 74-87 38%     0 - 1 +4.0 +0.4 +4.8
  Nov 12, 2021 296   Western Michigan W 90-46 98%     1 - 1 +33.7 +8.1 +24.7
  Nov 17, 2021 103   @ Butler W 73-52 73%     2 - 1 +28.3 +7.0 +21.6
  Nov 20, 2021 260   Eastern Michigan W 83-59 97%     3 - 1 +15.5 -0.6 +13.9
  Nov 24, 2021 33   Loyola Chicago W 63-61 58%     4 - 1 +13.9 -2.5 +16.4
  Nov 25, 2021 26   Connecticut W 64-60 52%     5 - 1 +17.2 -2.3 +19.5
  Nov 26, 2021 3   Baylor L 58-75 32%     5 - 2 +1.8 -1.0 +1.2
  Dec 01, 2021 36   Louisville W 70-65 69%    
  Dec 04, 2021 117   Toledo W 80-66 90%    
  Dec 08, 2021 94   @ Minnesota W 70-65 69%    
  Dec 11, 2021 67   Penn St. W 68-59 81%    
  Dec 21, 2021 124   Oakland W 75-64 84%    
  Dec 29, 2021 282   High Point W 76-53 99%    
  Jan 02, 2022 47   @ Northwestern W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 05, 2022 107   Nebraska W 80-67 86%    
  Jan 08, 2022 15   @ Michigan L 66-70 36%    
  Jan 12, 2022 94   Minnesota W 73-62 84%    
  Jan 15, 2022 47   Northwestern W 74-67 74%    
  Jan 21, 2022 29   @ Wisconsin L 63-64 43%    
  Jan 25, 2022 30   @ Illinois L 72-73 45%    
  Jan 29, 2022 15   Michigan W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 01, 2022 52   @ Maryland W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 05, 2022 87   @ Rutgers W 68-64 65%    
  Feb 08, 2022 29   Wisconsin W 66-61 64%    
  Feb 12, 2022 34   Indiana W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 15, 2022 67   @ Penn St. W 65-62 62%    
  Feb 19, 2022 30   Illinois W 75-70 65%    
  Feb 22, 2022 19   @ Iowa L 77-81 38%    
  Feb 26, 2022 2   Purdue L 70-74 37%    
  Mar 03, 2022 25   @ Ohio St. L 69-72 41%    
  Mar 06, 2022 52   Maryland W 72-64 76%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.2 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.0 9.8 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 4.0 4.8 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 14.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.9 5.2 2.1 0.2 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 4.4 4.7 1.7 0.2 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.2 5.0 1.7 0.3 10.9 5th
6th 0.3 2.8 4.3 1.6 0.3 9.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 3.9 1.6 0.3 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.3 2.1 2.4 0.7 0.0 5.5 9th
10th 0.2 1.1 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.0 10th
11th 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.0 3.1 11th
12th 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.1 5.8 7.8 10.5 10.8 13.0 13.0 11.5 8.9 6.1 3.5 1.6 0.6 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 96.7% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 86.8% 1.4    1.2 0.2
17-3 69.4% 2.4    1.6 0.8 0.1
16-4 52.2% 3.2    1.5 1.4 0.3
15-5 19.3% 1.7    0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0
14-6 4.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.8% 9.8 5.4 3.6 0.8 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 31.6% 68.4% 1.2 0.5 0.1 100.0%
18-2 1.6% 100.0% 30.8% 69.2% 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 100.0%
17-3 3.5% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 1.7 1.4 1.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.1% 100.0% 22.1% 77.9% 2.2 1.3 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.0 100.0%
15-5 8.9% 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 2.9 0.9 2.1 3.5 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.5% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 3.8 0.2 1.2 3.6 3.3 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 13.0% 100.0% 9.5% 90.5% 4.6 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.5 4.2 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 13.0% 99.8% 4.5% 95.3% 5.7 0.0 0.7 1.9 3.2 3.7 2.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-9 10.8% 96.7% 4.3% 92.4% 6.8 0.2 0.5 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.0 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 96.5%
10-10 10.5% 93.9% 2.0% 91.9% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 2.4 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.6 93.8%
9-11 7.8% 70.5% 1.5% 68.9% 9.9 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 1.0 1.4 1.7 0.6 0.0 2.3 70.0%
8-12 5.8% 35.4% 1.5% 33.9% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.1 3.8 34.4%
7-13 3.1% 8.5% 0.7% 7.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.8 7.8%
6-14 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 12.0 0.0 2.1 1.9%
5-15 1.1% 1.1
4-16 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 14.0 0.0 0.4
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 86.3% 8.0% 78.3% 5.3 5.2 8.7 12.3 11.5 12.4 10.0 7.9 5.5 4.2 3.6 3.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 13.7 85.1%