Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.2#9
Expected Predictive Rating+24.8#4
Pace65.6#281
Improvement+4.1#9

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#30
First Shot+3.4#90
After Offensive Rebound+4.8#9
Layup/Dunks+2.9#81
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#29
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#316
Freethrows+1.8#91
Improvement+2.7#18

Defense
Total Defense+10.9#2
First Shot+8.1#13
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#41
Layups/Dunks+10.3#4
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#282
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#296
Freethrows+2.7#50
Improvement+1.4#65
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.7% 5.2% 2.1%
#1 Seed 19.3% 25.1% 13.4%
Top 2 Seed 43.6% 52.9% 34.1%
Top 4 Seed 80.0% 87.0% 72.9%
Top 6 Seed 94.4% 97.1% 91.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.5% 99.8% 99.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.4% 99.8% 99.1%
Average Seed 3.1 2.7 3.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.0% 97.9% 96.1%
Conference Champion 13.6% 16.4% 10.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.1% 0.7%
First Round99.3% 99.7% 98.9%
Second Round90.8% 93.3% 88.2%
Sweet Sixteen60.3% 64.9% 55.6%
Elite Eight33.0% 37.2% 28.6%
Final Four16.6% 19.3% 13.8%
Championship Game8.1% 9.8% 6.4%
National Champion3.8% 4.7% 2.9%

Next Game: Duke (Home) - 50.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 6
Quad 27 - 117 - 7
Quad 35 - 021 - 7
Quad 45 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 172 Colgate W 80-69 97%     1 - 0 +6.8 +5.5 +1.4
  Sat, Nov 8 25 Arkansas W 69-66 78%     2 - 0 +14.2 +3.3 +11.0
  Thu, Nov 13 201 San Jose St. W 79-60 98%     3 - 0 +13.5 +7.7 +6.9
  Tue, Nov 18 17 Kentucky W 83-66 58%     4 - 0 +34.1 +17.3 +16.6
  Fri, Nov 21 315 Detroit Mercy W 84-56 99%     5 - 0 +16.3 +7.2 +9.6
  Tue, Nov 25 249 East Carolina W 89-56 98%     6 - 0 +28.2 +12.9 +14.4
  Thu, Nov 27 22 North Carolina W 74-58 65%     7 - 0 +31.1 +19.9 +13.7
  Tue, Dec 2 26 Iowa W 71-52 78%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +30.1 +16.8 +17.1
  Sat, Dec 6 3 Duke W 70-69 51%    
  Sat, Dec 13 97 @Penn St. W 78-67 85%    
  Tue, Dec 16 170 Toledo W 85-62 98%    
  Sat, Dec 20 139 Oakland W 85-67 95%    
  Mon, Dec 29 143 Cornell W 89-68 98%    
  Fri, Jan 2 51 @Nebraska W 75-70 69%    
  Mon, Jan 5 30 USC W 79-70 79%    
  Thu, Jan 8 57 Northwestern W 76-63 88%    
  Tue, Jan 13 20 Indiana W 73-67 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 56 @Washington W 74-67 73%    
  Tue, Jan 20 80 @Oregon W 75-66 80%    
  Sat, Jan 24 89 Maryland W 79-63 92%    
  Tue, Jan 27 119 @Rutgers W 74-61 88%    
  Fri, Jan 30 1 Michigan L 71-75 38%    
  Wed, Feb 4 108 @Minnesota W 71-59 86%    
  Sat, Feb 7 18 Illinois W 77-72 67%    
  Fri, Feb 13 36 @Wisconsin W 75-71 63%    
  Tue, Feb 17 32 UCLA W 71-62 78%    
  Sun, Feb 22 24 Ohio St. W 75-67 76%    
  Thu, Feb 26 2 @Purdue L 68-74 30%    
  Sun, Mar 1 20 @Indiana W 71-70 51%    
  Thu, Mar 5 119 Rutgers W 77-58 95%    
  Sun, Mar 8 1 @Michigan L 68-78 20%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.4 4.6 1.9 0.4 13.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 4.0 7.5 5.1 1.0 0.0 18.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 5.3 8.2 4.7 0.9 0.0 20.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.0 6.8 3.3 0.5 0.0 15.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 4.9 2.6 0.3 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.6 2.5 0.3 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 5.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.6 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.1 2.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.3 6.0 9.7 13.0 15.9 16.2 14.6 10.4 5.6 1.9 0.4 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 99.0% 1.9    1.7 0.2
18-2 81.4% 4.6    2.9 1.5 0.1
17-3 42.2% 4.4    1.6 2.1 0.7 0.0 0.0
16-4 12.8% 1.9    0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 2.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.6% 13.6 7.0 4.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 100.0% 40.2% 59.8% 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.9% 100.0% 31.9% 68.1% 1.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 100.0%
18-2 5.6% 100.0% 27.4% 72.6% 1.4 3.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 10.4% 100.0% 20.6% 79.4% 1.6 5.3 4.1 1.0 0.1 100.0%
16-4 14.6% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 1.9 4.6 6.7 2.9 0.5 0.0 100.0%
15-5 16.2% 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 2.5 2.5 6.1 5.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 15.9% 100.0% 7.9% 92.1% 3.0 0.9 3.8 6.1 4.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 13.0% 100.0% 4.5% 95.5% 3.7 0.2 1.3 4.0 4.4 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 9.7% 100.0% 3.6% 96.4% 4.5 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.0 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 6.0% 99.9% 2.2% 97.7% 5.4 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.8 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-10 3.3% 99.3% 1.4% 97.8% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3%
9-11 1.7% 96.1% 1.2% 95.0% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 96.1%
8-12 0.8% 82.3% 1.3% 81.0% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 82.0%
7-13 0.4% 55.1% 55.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 55.1%
6-14 0.1% 26.7% 26.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 26.7%
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.5% 10.9% 88.6% 3.1 19.3 24.3 21.5 15.0 9.3 5.1 2.4 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.5 99.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 97.1 2.9