Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.2#16
Expected Predictive Rating+11.9#35
Pace64.5#294
Improvement-0.9#228

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#28
First Shot+5.0#52
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#47
Layup/Dunks+2.6#80
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#11
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#309
Freethrows+0.7#119
Improvement+0.6#150

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#14
First Shot+7.4#12
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#128
Layups/Dunks+7.9#7
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#303
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#183
Freethrows+1.1#103
Improvement-1.5#265
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.3% 2.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 28.5% 33.2% 8.2%
Top 6 Seed 76.6% 82.6% 50.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.3% 98.5% 92.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.9% 98.3% 91.3%
Average Seed 5.4 5.1 6.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.7% 100.0% 93.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.1% 2.3%
First Round97.1% 98.4% 91.4%
Second Round75.7% 78.5% 63.7%
Sweet Sixteen39.9% 42.8% 27.6%
Elite Eight16.9% 18.2% 11.5%
Final Four7.5% 8.0% 5.1%
Championship Game3.0% 3.3% 1.9%
National Champion1.1% 1.2% 0.6%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Home) - 81.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 8
Quad 27 - 312 - 11
Quad 33 - 016 - 11
Quad 44 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 65   James Madison L 76-79 OT 81%     0 - 1 +2.9 -5.4 +8.8
  Nov 09, 2023 326   Southern Indiana W 74-51 99%     1 - 1 +10.1 -3.5 +13.9
  Nov 14, 2023 9   Duke L 65-74 43%     1 - 2 +8.1 +0.1 +7.7
  Nov 17, 2023 56   Butler W 74-54 79%     2 - 2 +26.7 +9.9 +18.6
  Nov 19, 2023 294   Alcorn St. W 81-49 98%     3 - 2 +21.8 +5.2 +18.5
  Nov 23, 2023 4   Arizona L 68-74 32%     3 - 3 +14.1 +5.7 +8.2
  Nov 28, 2023 286   Georgia Southern W 86-55 98%     4 - 3 +21.9 +2.0 +18.4
  Dec 05, 2023 25   Wisconsin L 57-70 68%     4 - 4 0 - 1 -2.7 +0.6 -6.1
  Dec 10, 2023 35   @ Nebraska L 70-77 53%     4 - 5 0 - 2 +7.3 +8.1 -1.3
  Dec 16, 2023 17   Baylor W 88-64 51%     5 - 5 +38.9 +17.8 +20.9
  Dec 18, 2023 130   Oakland W 79-62 92%     6 - 5 +16.5 +18.1 +1.1
  Dec 21, 2023 211   Stony Brook W 99-55 96%     7 - 5 +38.4 +14.4 +20.1
  Dec 30, 2023 55   Indiana St. W 87-75 79%     8 - 5 +18.7 +14.6 +4.0
  Jan 04, 2024 79   Penn St. W 92-61 85%     9 - 5 1 - 2 +35.3 +15.7 +18.0
  Jan 07, 2024 40   @ Northwestern L 74-88 56%     9 - 6 1 - 3 -0.4 +12.3 -13.7
  Jan 11, 2024 11   @ Illinois L 68-71 35%     9 - 7 1 - 4 +16.0 +4.8 +11.0
  Jan 14, 2024 72   Rutgers W 73-55 84%     10 - 7 2 - 4 +22.7 +16.5 +8.0
  Jan 18, 2024 60   Minnesota W 76-66 80%     11 - 7 3 - 4 +16.4 +5.8 +10.6
  Jan 21, 2024 41   @ Maryland W 61-59 57%     12 - 7 4 - 4 +15.5 +4.8 +10.8
  Jan 26, 2024 25   @ Wisconsin L 66-81 48%     12 - 8 4 - 5 +0.8 +7.5 -8.4
  Jan 30, 2024 104   Michigan W 81-62 88%     13 - 8 5 - 5 +21.2 +20.5 +3.7
  Feb 03, 2024 41   Maryland W 63-54 76%     14 - 8 6 - 5 +17.0 +6.5 +11.6
  Feb 06, 2024 60   @ Minnesota L 56-59 63%     14 - 9 6 - 6 +8.9 -1.5 +9.8
  Feb 10, 2024 11   Illinois W 88-80 56%     15 - 9 7 - 6 +21.6 +18.1 +3.5
  Feb 14, 2024 79   @ Penn St. W 80-72 70%     16 - 9 8 - 6 +17.7 +14.6 +3.5
  Feb 17, 2024 104   @ Michigan W 73-63 76%     17 - 9 9 - 6 +17.7 -2.5 +19.5
  Feb 20, 2024 42   Iowa L 71-78 76%     17 - 10 9 - 7 +0.9 +3.0 -2.6
  Feb 25, 2024 63   Ohio St. W 74-65 81%    
  Mar 02, 2024 1   @ Purdue L 69-77 21%    
  Mar 06, 2024 40   Northwestern W 71-64 75%    
  Mar 10, 2024 99   @ Indiana W 74-67 73%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 2.2 5.1 7.2 2nd
3rd 0.9 20.5 5.1 26.6 3rd
4th 0.0 6.6 16.1 0.1 22.9 4th
5th 0.8 15.3 4.3 20.3 5th
6th 0.1 5.9 10.9 0.4 17.3 6th
7th 0.4 3.8 0.3 4.5 7th
8th 0.7 0.4 1.1 8th
9th 0.2 0.2 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 1.3 10.9 34.0 43.5 10.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 10.3% 100.0% 15.9% 84.1% 3.1 0.3 1.9 4.7 3.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 43.5% 99.6% 12.6% 87.0% 4.8 0.0 0.1 2.7 13.8 17.1 8.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 99.5%
11-9 34.0% 97.7% 10.8% 86.9% 6.0 0.1 1.8 8.3 13.0 7.6 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.8 97.5%
10-10 10.9% 90.5% 9.2% 81.3% 7.9 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 3.3 2.1 0.7 0.1 1.0 89.5%
9-11 1.3% 44.0% 9.7% 34.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 38.0%
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 97.3% 11.9% 85.4% 5.4 0.3 1.9 7.6 18.6 25.8 22.3 11.3 5.5 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.7 96.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.3% 100.0% 3.1 3.2 18.2 46.1 29.4 2.8 0.1
Lose Out 1.3% 44.0% 10.4 0.2 1.5 24.3 17.9 0.2