UMKC
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -13.9 #355
Expected Predictive Rating -18.7 #359
Pace 71.1 #118
Improvement -0.4 #208

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #358 D- D D D+ D
Defense #302 D D C B D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #294 1.07 #292 -4.0 #309
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #45 0.70 #272 +2.8 #54
Three Pointers 37% #257 0.90 #324 -4.1 #315
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #333 -5.2 #324
Freethrows 0.27 #270 68% #305 0.19 #300
Second Chance 28.2% #249 0.84 #356 0.24 #331
Turnovers 19.1% #315
Total Offense -9.5 #358

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #63 1.28 #327 -5.3 #342
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #228 0.77 #199 +0.4 #152
Three Pointers 38% #260 1.05 #226 +0.8 #146
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #304 -4.0 #305
Freethrows 0.27 #67 69% #45 0.18 #54
Second Chance 36.5% #350 1.00 #146 0.37 #306
Turnovers 16.6% #183
Total Defense -4.4 #302

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.5% #323 1.1% #275
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.3% #326 6.4% #298
Possession Length 17.8 #238 16.1 #23
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #123 0.21 #314
Improvement -1.2 #251 +0.8 #141

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 59.1% 32.4% 60.3%
First Four0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Thomas (Away) - 4.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 42 - 133 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 135 @Southern Illinois L 78 - 101 5% -11  0 - 1 -19 +5 D B+ B -21 F F C-
 Tue, Nov 11 231 Iona L 91 - 105 25% -9  0 - 2 -21 -1 C+ C F -18 F C- B
 Sat, Nov 15 31 @Texas L 55 - 71 1% -11  0 - 3 +2 -7 F C- A+ +7 A+ A- F
 Wed, Nov 19 47 @TCU L 45 - 81 1% -22  0 - 4 -21 -19 F D+ F -1 B+ F B
 Mon, Nov 24 239 @Lindenwood L 67 - 80 12% -6  0 - 5 -14 -9 D F F -4 F A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 29 220 @Weber St. L 61 - 82 11% -10  0 - 6 -21 -12 D+ F D -10 F B A
 Wed, Dec 3 225 Idaho St. L 59 - 68 24% -0  0 - 7 -16 -10 D+ D- F -7 B- F B
 Sat, Dec 6 246 @Eastern Washington L 66 - 90 13% -15  0 - 8 -26 -15 F C F -9 B- F C
 Wed, Dec 10 220 Weber St. L 60 - 64 23% -3  0 - 9 -10 -21 F D F +11 A C- A+
 Tue, Dec 16 55 @Oklahoma L 67 - 89 2% -19  0 - 10 -9 -2 C- C F -7 B- D- D
 Thu, Dec 18 56 @Oklahoma St. L 79 - 91 2% -6  0 - 11 +1 +4 C+ D B -2 F A- A+
 Wed, Dec 31 288 @Denver L 74 - 87 18% -12  0 - 12 0 - 1 -17 -7 F B D+ -11 D+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 241 @Nebraska Omaha W 73 - 66 12% +2  1 - 12 1 - 1 +6 +2 D+ D- A- +4 C- D+ A
 Thu, Jan 8 138 North Dakota St. L 73 - 97 13% -18  1 - 13 1 - 2 -26 -0 B+ F+ F -26 F B- D-
 Sat, Jan 10 282 North Dakota L 79 - 81 35% +2  1 - 14 1 - 3 -12 +5 A+ F F -17 D D F
 Thu, Jan 15 285 @South Dakota L 83 - 99 18% -17  1 - 15 1 - 4 -20 -1 C- F A+ -18 F F D-
 Sat, Jan 17 175 @South Dakota St. L 62 - 90 8% -6  1 - 16 1 - 5 -26 -6 F+ B- C- -22 F D D-
 Sat, Jan 24 241 Nebraska Omaha L 60 - 77 27% -8  1 - 17 1 - 6 -24 -20 F+ F F -4 C F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 288 Denver L 61 - 69 36% +0  1 - 18 1 - 7 -18 -20 F F C+ +1 A+ D+ C
 Sun, Feb 1 137 @St. Thomas L 65 - 83 4%
 Wed, Feb 4 285 South Dakota L 77 - 81 36%
 Thu, Feb 12 335 @Oral Roberts L 69 - 75 29%
 Sat, Feb 14 137 St. Thomas L 68 - 80 12%
 Thu, Feb 19 282 @North Dakota L 70 - 80 18%
 Sat, Feb 21 138 @North Dakota St. L 63 - 81 4%
 Thu, Feb 26 175 South Dakota St. L 70 - 80 18%
 Sat, Feb 28 335 Oral Roberts W 72 - 71 50%
Totals 3 - 24 3 - 13 -14 -10 D- D D -4 D D C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.9 3.2 3.2 0.7 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 12.1 23.4 12.7 2.5 0.1 50.8 8th
9th 14.6 19.8 5.5 0.3 40.2 9th
Total 14.6 31.9 29.7 16.3 6.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0% 0.0
7-9 0.2% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
6-10 1.3% 1.3
5-11 6.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.0
4-12 16.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.2
3-13 29.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 29.7
2-14 31.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 31.9
1-15 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.6
0-16
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 10.1%