UMKC
Summit League
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.6#299
Expected Predictive Rating-11.5#323
Pace61.5#341
Improvement-0.1#193

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#282
First Shot-7.8#350
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#17
Layup/Dunks-4.3#319
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#210
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#157
Freethrows-3.7#343
Improvement+0.1#174

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#298
First Shot-4.7#313
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#113
Layups/Dunks+3.4#66
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#283
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#275
Freethrows-4.0#339
Improvement-0.2#198
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.1% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 7.3% 8.7% 2.8%
.500 or above in Conference 28.8% 30.9% 22.2%
Conference Champion 2.5% 2.9% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 28.8% 26.2% 37.2%
First Four1.4% 1.4% 1.5%
First Round1.3% 1.4% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Home) - 76.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 71 - 11
Quad 47 - 99 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2023 10   @ Baylor L 61-99 2%     0 - 1 -18.9 -3.3 -17.7
  Nov 17, 2023 26   @ Colorado St. L 61-84 2%     0 - 2 -7.1 -4.8 -2.3
  Nov 24, 2023 102   UNC Greensboro L 64-76 13%     0 - 3 -7.5 -0.3 -8.3
  Nov 25, 2023 221   Brown L 83-93 OT 32%     0 - 4 -12.9 +2.3 -14.1
  Nov 26, 2023 182   Middle Tennessee L 59-63 27%     0 - 5 -5.1 -4.1 -1.5
  Nov 30, 2023 343   Southeast Missouri St. W 74-67 76%    
  Dec 05, 2023 7   @ Kansas L 55-83 1%    
  Dec 09, 2023 346   @ Lindenwood W 70-68 57%    
  Dec 16, 2023 220   @ Bowling Green L 66-74 24%    
  Dec 20, 2023 241   @ East Tennessee St. L 63-69 27%    
  Dec 29, 2023 168   Oral Roberts L 67-71 34%    
  Dec 31, 2023 279   @ St. Thomas L 62-66 35%    
  Jan 03, 2024 270   @ Sacramento St. L 65-70 33%    
  Jan 06, 2024 175   Portland St. L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 11, 2024 214   North Dakota St. L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 13, 2024 255   North Dakota W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 20, 2024 284   @ Nebraska Omaha L 67-71 35%    
  Jan 25, 2024 145   @ South Dakota St. L 62-74 14%    
  Jan 27, 2024 293   South Dakota W 72-69 58%    
  Feb 01, 2024 256   Denver W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 03, 2024 279   St. Thomas W 65-63 55%    
  Feb 08, 2024 214   @ North Dakota St. L 64-72 24%    
  Feb 10, 2024 255   @ North Dakota L 64-70 32%    
  Feb 15, 2024 145   South Dakota St. L 65-71 31%    
  Feb 22, 2024 293   @ South Dakota L 69-72 38%    
  Feb 24, 2024 284   Nebraska Omaha W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 29, 2024 256   @ Denver L 71-77 30%    
  Mar 02, 2024 168   @ Oral Roberts L 64-74 18%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.7 0.7 0.0 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 3.1 2.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.4 2.8 0.7 0.1 9.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 5.0 4.4 0.7 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 5.9 5.3 0.9 0.0 13.3 6th
7th 0.2 1.5 5.9 6.4 1.3 0.0 15.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.8 5.6 1.6 0.1 17.3 8th
9th 0.5 2.3 4.6 5.8 4.3 1.2 0.1 18.7 9th
Total 0.5 2.3 5.0 9.0 12.6 13.9 15.3 12.7 10.9 7.4 5.3 2.8 1.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
13-3 90.5% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
12-4 60.2% 1.0    0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 21.2% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.1% 74.3% 74.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.2% 11.4% 11.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-3 0.4% 20.5% 20.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-4 1.7% 17.6% 17.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.4
11-5 2.8% 9.3% 9.3% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.6
10-6 5.3% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3 5.0
9-7 7.4% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 7.1
8-8 10.9% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.3 10.5
7-9 12.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 12.6
6-10 15.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 15.1
5-11 13.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.8
4-12 12.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.6
3-13 9.0% 9.0
2-14 5.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.0
1-15 2.3% 2.3
0-16 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%