West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
14 Gonzaga 99.8%   4   22 - 2 10 - 1 +18.4      +9.3 24 +9.2 14 74.3 48 +21.8 9 +15.2 2
41 St. Mary's 53.4%   11   19 - 4 9 - 2 +12.3      +5.7 61 +6.6 34 63.7 314 +13.7 37 +13.8 3
43 Santa Clara 49.8%   11   19 - 5 11 - 1 +12.1      +6.7 51 +5.3 48 72.6 80 +12.1 49 +19.2 1
104 San Francisco 0.8%   13 - 11 6 - 6 +4.6      +3.2 94 +1.4 127 65.2 272 +3.2 110 +2.0 5
126 Pacific 0.3%   13 - 10 6 - 6 +2.2      +1.0 139 +1.2 133 63.9 308 +2.1 130 +0.6 7
127 Washington St. 0.4%   10 - 14 6 - 6 +2.1      +2.9 97 -0.8 198 69.3 165 -0.2 166 +1.3 6
131 Seattle 0.2%   13 - 9 4 - 7 +1.8      -4.8 298 +6.7 33 69.9 150 +2.8 115 -0.8 9
154 Loyola Marymount 0.0%   11 - 13 3 - 9 0.0      -2.4 235 +2.3 106 69.1 171 -0.5 173 -2.5 11
177 Oregon St. 0.0%   13 - 12 6 - 6 -1.1      -0.9 194 -0.3 174 64.7 289 +0.8 145 +2.5 4
205 Portland 0.0%   9 - 14 4 - 8 -2.7      -1.8 219 -0.9 203 71.9 93 -0.9 184 +0.2 8
210 San Diego 0.0%   8 - 15 4 - 8 -2.8      -0.8 187 -2.1 244 74.1 53 -3.8 223 -0.9 10
275 Pepperdine 0.0%   4 - 18 1 - 10 -6.5      -5.1 302 -1.4 227 68.3 191 -9.2 315 -10.1 12


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Feb 4 126 Pacific 56 43 Santa Clara 71   
Wed, Feb 4 14 Gonzaga 80 205 Portland 87   
Wed, Feb 4 275 Pepperdine 81 131 Seattle 83   
Wed, Feb 4 127 Washington St. 64 177 Oregon St. 74   
Wed, Feb 4 154 Loyola Marymount 84 104 San Francisco 75   
Wed, Feb 4 41 St. Mary's 87 210 San Diego 60   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 7 41 St. Mary's 75 104 San Francisco 65 84%   
Sat, Feb 7 43 Santa Clara 83 127 Washington St. 76 75%   
Sat, Feb 7 154 Loyola Marymount 78 210 San Diego 72 71%   
Sat, Feb 7 205 Portland 69 131 Seattle 71 56%   
Sat, Feb 7 126 Pacific 72 275 Pepperdine 67 71%   
Sat, Feb 7 14 Gonzaga 83 177 Oregon St. 66 93%   
Tue, Feb 10 14 Gonzaga 89 127 Washington St. 70 95%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Gonzaga 1.3 77.0 18.4 4.7
St. Mary's 2.4 15.7 32.7 51.5 0.1
Santa Clara 1.8 35.5 45.6 18.9
San Francisco 5.3 0.3 42.0 22.3 15.1 9.6 6.6 3.1 0.9 0.1
Pacific 5.3 0.3 42.0 21.7 14.5 10.2 6.9 3.2 1.1 0.1
Washington St. 5.6 0.1 32.2 22.9 17.3 12.2 9.7 4.0 1.5 0.1
Seattle 6.9 0.0 14.4 16.7 16.2 13.7 14.1 11.0 9.5 4.2 0.2
Loyola Marymount 8.9 2.8 5.1 6.8 9.4 13.1 16.2 22.4 22.5 1.6
Oregon St. 6.0 0.0 21.0 22.5 20.4 15.9 11.8 6.4 1.8 0.2
Portland 8.7 2.1 5.5 8.2 10.8 14.5 18.3 23.6 16.0 0.9
San Diego 8.6 4.1 6.2 7.7 10.4 13.9 16.4 18.7 21.9 0.6
Pepperdine 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 8.4 88.1

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Gonzaga 16 - 2 28 - 3 0.0 0.8 5.6 22.6 41.8 29.2
St. Mary's 14 - 4 24 - 6 0.1 1.6 7.2 20.3 32.2 28.7 9.9
Santa Clara 15 - 3 23 - 7 0.0 1.0 7.1 22.7 35.9 26.1 7.1
San Francisco 9 - 9 16 - 14 2.3 13.8 31.1 32.8 16.0 3.6 0.4
Pacific 9 - 9 16 - 13 2.7 13.7 30.6 31.8 17.0 3.9 0.2
Washington St. 8 - 10 12 - 18 4.2 19.1 33.6 28.9 11.9 2.2 0.1
Seattle 8 - 10 17 - 12 0.7 4.8 15.0 28.0 29.0 17.4 4.5 0.6
Loyola Marymount 6 - 12 14 - 16 1.4 7.6 19.4 29.1 26.7 12.9 2.8
Oregon St. 8 - 10 15 - 16 4.6 23.2 41.3 24.2 6.1 0.7 0.0
Portland 6 - 12 11 - 18 3.4 16.6 32.2 30.2 14.6 2.9 0.0
San Diego 6 - 12 10 - 19 5.3 18.1 29.4 27.3 14.6 4.8 0.6
Pepperdine 3 - 15 6 - 23 14.8 29.6 29.6 17.8 6.7 1.5 0.2 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 77.0% 54.4 19.7 2.9
St. Mary's 15.7% 4.1 8.8 2.9
Santa Clara 35.5% 16.3 16.3 2.9
San Francisco
Pacific
Washington St.
Seattle
Loyola Marymount
Oregon St.
Portland
San Diego
Pepperdine


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 99.8% 63.3% 36.6% 4   1.5 6.0 18.5 27.9 25.0 14.2 4.7 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.2 99.6%
St. Mary's 53.4% 16.0% 37.3% 11   0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 1.4 3.4 7.4 15.0 23.9 0.5 46.7 44.4%
Santa Clara 49.8% 19.1% 30.7% 11   0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 3.6 7.6 16.2 20.1 0.3 50.2 38.0%
San Francisco 0.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 99.3 0.0%
Pacific 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.1 99.7 0.0%
Washington St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 99.6 0.0%
Seattle 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.0 20.0 55.6 24.2 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 1.9 28.2 55.9 15.8 0.1
2nd Round 93.4% 1.2 6.6 65.4 26.4 1.7
Sweet Sixteen 53.4% 0.6 46.6 50.2 3.1 0.0
Elite Eight 22.2% 0.2 77.8 22.0 0.3
Final Four 8.9% 0.1 91.1 8.9 0.0
Final Game 3.5% 0.0 96.5 3.5
Champion 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 88.9% 49.4% 20.4% 8.5% 3.4% 1.2%
St. Mary's 53.4% 20.5% 43.7% 17.3% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Santa Clara 49.8% 15.1% 42.6% 16.8% 3.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
San Francisco 0.8% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%