West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
5 Gonzaga 100.0%   2   11 - 1 0 - 0 29 - 2 17 - 1 +21.7      +11.6 6 +10.1 9 74.6 53 +26.4 6 0.0 1
42 St. Mary's 38.2%   9 - 2 0 - 0 23 - 7 14 - 4 +12.1      +4.7 72 +7.4 21 66.6 262 +13.4 41 0.0 1
78 Santa Clara 7.1%   8 - 3 0 - 0 20 - 10 11 - 7 +7.5      +4.4 75 +3.0 81 71.4 130 +10.1 61 0.0 1
93 San Francisco 1.8%   6 - 5 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 8 +5.5      +3.6 93 +1.9 111 65.2 295 +3.8 115 0.0 1
110 Seattle 1.1%   8 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 11 9 - 9 +3.6      -0.1 171 +3.8 73 69.9 172 +6.8 89 0.0 1
126 Loyola Marymount 0.5%   7 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 9 +2.2      -2.4 231 +4.6 58 67.7 229 +2.1 136 0.0 1
138 Pacific 0.4%   6 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +1.3      +0.1 163 +1.3 122 66.4 270 +3.0 124 0.0 1
150 Washington St. 0.3%   3 - 8 0 - 0 12 - 18 8 - 10 +0.8      +0.9 141 -0.1 167 70.1 166 -4.0 230 0.0 1
164 Oregon St. 0.1%   6 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 18 7 - 11 -0.4      -0.2 174 -0.2 173 64.1 314 -2.2 202 0.0 1
243 San Diego 0.0%   3 - 6 0 - 0 8 - 21 5 - 13 -4.7      -1.2 201 -3.5 290 74.6 54 -7.1 275 0.0 1
248 Portland 0.0%   5 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 19 5 - 13 -4.9      -3.2 256 -1.7 226 74.5 55 -1.7 193 0.0 1
291 Pepperdine 0.0%   2 - 8 0 - 0 6 - 23 4 - 14 -7.1      -5.5 321 -1.5 218 67.1 246 -10.7 324 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Dec 16 126 Loyola Marymount 57 83 UC San Diego 67   
Tue, Dec 16 9 BYU 93 138 Pacific 57   
Wed, Dec 17 164 Oregon St. 75 118 Sam Houston St. 85   
Wed, Dec 17 147 North Texas 60 78 Santa Clara 63   
Wed, Dec 17 110 Seattle 79 197 UC Davis 78   
Wed, Dec 17 249 Eastern Washington 63 150 Washington St. 78   
Wed, Dec 17 62 Oregon 94 248 Portland 69   
Wed, Dec 17 290 Loyola Chicago 71 93 San Francisco 85   
Wed, Dec 17 229 Campbell 70 5 Gonzaga 98   
Thu, Dec 18 278 Long Beach St. 81 291 Pepperdine 78   
Fri, Dec 19 110 Seattle 70 51 Washington 66   
Fri, Dec 19 117 Florida Atlantic 75 42 St. Mary's 88   
Fri, Dec 19 126 Loyola Marymount 91 247 North Alabama 57   
Fri, Dec 19 243 San Diego 80 83 UC San Diego 0   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 20 173 Mercer 76 150 Washington St. 80 68%   
Sat, Dec 20 291 Pepperdine 68 206 Rice 69 54%   
Sat, Dec 20 290 Loyola Chicago 68 78 Santa Clara 82 91%   
Sun, Dec 21 5 Gonzaga 84 62 Oregon 72 88%   
Sun, Dec 21 63 Arizona St. 79 164 Oregon St. 67 87%   
Sun, Dec 21 231 Nicholls St. 66 138 Pacific 74 79%   
Sun, Dec 21 361 Morgan St. 63 93 San Francisco 87 98%   
Mon, Dec 22 42 St. Mary's 67 94 Northern Iowa 58 82%   
Mon, Dec 22 248 Portland 71 158 UC Santa Barbara 80 78%   
Mon, Dec 22 243 San Diego 69 51 Washington 87 94%   
Mon, Dec 22 110 Seattle 76 295 Texas San Antonio 68 77%   
Tue, Dec 23 126 Loyola Marymount 82 361 Morgan St. 62 96%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Gonzaga 1.1 93.8 5.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
St. Mary's 2.5 11.1 56.8 18.4 7.4 3.5 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Santa Clara 4.0 1.7 19.7 27.0 18.6 12.9 8.5 5.7 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
San Francisco 4.9 0.6 10.3 18.5 18.5 16.1 12.9 9.7 6.7 3.7 2.0 0.8 0.2
Seattle 5.5 0.3 7.0 13.7 16.8 16.4 14.6 11.4 8.9 5.7 3.3 1.4 0.4
Loyola Marymount 6.0 0.2 5.3 12.4 13.3 14.3 14.2 12.7 11.0 8.1 5.2 2.5 0.8
Pacific 6.0 0.2 5.2 11.9 13.9 14.3 14.0 12.8 10.6 8.0 5.1 2.7 1.2
Washington St. 7.0 0.1 2.0 5.5 9.0 12.0 13.7 14.9 14.8 12.1 8.8 5.0 2.2
Oregon St. 7.6 0.0 1.3 4.5 6.8 9.0 11.2 13.3 15.2 15.5 12.2 7.8 3.2
San Diego 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 3.2 5.1 7.3 11.4 15.5 19.1 19.9 15.8
Portland 9.8 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.7 6.0 10.0 14.4 20.5 23.2 18.9
Pepperdine 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.0 5.4 9.8 16.9 25.7 36.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Gonzaga 17 - 1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 7.2 18.7 34.9 36.3
St. Mary's 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.8 4.0 8.0 13.3 18.5 20.7 17.9 10.6 3.8 0.5
Santa Clara 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.3 6.6 10.7 14.4 17.0 16.5 13.7 9.2 4.5 1.3 0.3 0.0
San Francisco 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.9 7.2 11.1 15.1 16.6 16.1 12.6 8.2 4.2 1.7 0.4 0.0
Seattle 9 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.0 5.7 9.7 13.5 16.1 16.4 14.0 9.8 6.1 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
Loyola Marymount 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 5.0 8.4 11.6 14.5 15.5 14.1 11.4 8.0 4.6 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
Pacific 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.6 4.9 8.2 11.5 14.5 15.5 13.9 11.7 8.2 4.6 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
Washington St. 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 5.0 8.5 12.4 15.4 16.0 14.7 11.6 7.2 3.7 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
Oregon St. 7 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.7 7.4 11.5 14.9 15.9 14.6 12.2 8.3 5.0 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
San Diego 5 - 13 0.7 3.1 7.4 12.1 15.7 17.1 15.2 11.8 7.9 4.9 2.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Portland 5 - 13 0.8 4.0 8.7 14.2 18.1 18.3 14.4 10.0 6.2 3.3 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Pepperdine 4 - 14 2.8 8.9 15.8 19.6 18.8 14.9 9.5 5.4 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 93.8% 86.3 7.2 0.3 0.0
St. Mary's 11.1% 4.9 5.9 0.3 0.0
Santa Clara 1.7% 0.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
San Francisco 0.6% 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Seattle 0.3% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Loyola Marymount 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0
Pacific 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Washington St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.0% 0.0
Portland
Pepperdine


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 100.0% 79.1% 20.9% 2   23.8 26.6 20.1 15.1 7.8 3.9 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
St. Mary's 38.2% 13.7% 24.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.8 5.1 9.4 16.0 0.8 0.0 61.8 28.4%
Santa Clara 7.1% 3.6% 3.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 4.5 0.6 0.0 92.9 3.6%
San Francisco 1.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 98.2 0.3%
Seattle 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 98.9 0.2%
Loyola Marymount 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5 0.0%
Pacific 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.6 0.0%
Washington St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.7 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.6% 71.5% 44.4% 25.0% 13.4% 6.6%
St. Mary's 38.2% 12.5% 32.6% 15.3% 4.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Santa Clara 7.1% 2.6% 5.7% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Francisco 1.8% 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 1.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.5 53.1 44.4 2.5 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.4 59.3 39.3 1.5 0.0
2nd Round 96.8% 1.1 3.2 80.4 16.3 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 73.1% 0.8 26.9 70.0 3.0 0.0
Elite Eight 45.4% 0.5 54.6 44.9 0.5
Final Four 25.3% 0.3 74.7 25.3 0.1
Final Game 13.5% 0.1 86.5 13.5 0.0
Champion 6.6% 0.1 93.4 6.6