West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
14 Gonzaga 85.4%   9   1 - 0 0 - 0 25 - 5 16 - 2 +17.4      +10.5 11 +6.8 25 74.3 51 +2.6 91 0.0 1
49 St. Mary's 39.6%   1 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 6 13 - 5 +11.4      +4.4 65 +7.0 22 57.7 363 +9.5 18 0.0 1
73 San Francisco 15.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 +7.5      +3.6 80 +3.9 69 69.2 160 0.0 121 0.0 1
97 Santa Clara 8.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 8 +5.1      +3.2 91 +1.9 109 71.4 98 0.0 121 0.0 1
123 Oregon St. 2.5%   1 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +2.1      +1.9 110 +0.2 158 61.4 346 +7.7 32 0.0 1
127 Seattle 2.3%   1 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 9 +1.9      -1.1 205 +3.0 87 66.0 249 +0.4 116 0.0 1
132 Loyola Marymount 2.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +1.6      +0.2 159 +1.5 119 67.7 207 0.0 121 0.0 1
146 Washington St. 1.0%   0 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 +0.4      +1.2 123 -0.9 190 75.4 32 -18.5 361 0.0 1
180 San Diego 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 11 -1.5      +0.3 154 -1.7 220 75.8 27 0.0 121 0.0 1
214 Pacific 0.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 7 - 11 -2.7      -0.6 180 -2.1 239 66.4 239 0.0 121 0.0 1
246 Pepperdine 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 5 - 13 -4.7      -2.5 238 -2.2 247 71.8 89 0.0 121 0.0 1
280 Portland 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 20 5 - 13 -6.3      -1.7 221 -4.5 322 69.9 137 0.0 121 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Gonzaga 1.4 73.2 17.7 5.6 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Mary's 2.6 24.3 34.8 18.7 10.0 5.6 3.2 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
San Francisco 4.2 8.4 18.5 20.2 16.2 11.7 8.8 6.0 4.4 2.8 1.6 1.0 0.3
Santa Clara 5.2 4.1 11.2 15.4 15.4 13.5 11.2 9.5 7.2 5.5 3.8 2.4 0.9
Oregon St. 6.1 1.6 6.6 11.3 13.0 12.6 12.1 10.9 10.0 8.5 6.8 4.6 2.0
Seattle 6.3 1.5 5.5 9.3 12.0 13.0 12.8 11.9 11.1 8.9 6.7 4.9 2.4
Loyola Marymount 6.4 1.6 6.4 9.9 11.8 11.6 11.8 11.3 10.6 9.3 7.3 5.6 2.8
Washington St. 7.1 0.8 3.0 6.1 9.2 10.9 12.1 12.9 11.9 11.7 9.6 7.3 4.3
San Diego 7.6 0.5 2.4 5.2 7.7 9.2 10.8 11.4 12.2 12.1 11.5 9.9 7.2
Pacific 8.2 0.3 1.8 3.9 5.8 7.3 8.8 10.6 11.6 12.8 13.1 13.3 10.6
Pepperdine 9.3 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.5 4.0 5.8 7.9 10.1 12.8 15.8 18.8 20.3
Portland 9.9 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.8 4.1 5.9 8.3 11.4 15.0 20.5 29.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Gonzaga 16 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.9 5.6 10.2 15.8 22.2 24.4 16.6
St. Mary's 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.3 5.5 8.5 12.1 14.6 16.2 15.5 12.4 6.6 1.8
San Francisco 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.5 6.8 9.3 11.6 13.3 13.6 12.2 10.6 6.8 3.9 1.6 0.3
Santa Clara 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.6 5.8 7.8 9.9 11.9 12.3 13.0 11.0 8.9 6.3 3.6 1.6 0.5 0.1
Oregon St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.0 6.1 8.8 10.3 12.0 11.9 12.2 10.4 8.1 6.0 3.6 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1
Seattle 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 4.3 6.8 9.2 11.5 12.5 12.8 12.0 10.0 7.4 4.9 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Loyola Marymount 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.8 4.8 6.9 9.2 11.1 11.9 11.7 11.1 9.3 7.5 5.3 3.4 2.0 0.7 0.3 0.0
Washington St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.8 1.9 4.1 6.5 9.2 11.6 12.8 13.1 11.9 9.9 7.8 4.9 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
San Diego 7 - 11 0.3 1.3 3.3 5.8 8.5 10.6 12.2 12.4 12.1 10.4 8.2 6.4 4.2 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Pacific 7 - 11 0.7 2.4 4.9 8.0 10.7 12.2 12.5 12.0 10.7 8.8 6.4 4.7 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Pepperdine 5 - 13 2.0 5.2 9.2 12.2 14.4 14.1 12.6 10.4 7.6 5.3 3.4 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Portland 5 - 13 3.6 8.3 12.4 14.7 15.0 13.5 10.9 8.4 5.6 3.6 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 73.2% 60.8 11.1 1.2 0.1 0.0
St. Mary's 24.3% 15.2 7.9 1.1 0.1 0.0
San Francisco 8.4% 4.5 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
Santa Clara 4.1% 2.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0
Oregon St. 1.6% 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
Seattle 1.5% 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Loyola Marymount 1.6% 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1
Washington St. 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
San Diego 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Pacific 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Pepperdine 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Portland 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 85.4% 58.2% 27.1% 9   5.2 6.9 7.6 9.6 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.0 8.2 8.9 5.1 0.2 0.0 14.7 64.9%
St. Mary's 39.6% 21.1% 18.4% 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.8 2.1 2.6 2.5 3.3 4.9 8.9 10.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 60.5 23.4%
San Francisco 15.7% 8.6% 7.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.3 2.0 3.9 5.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 84.3 7.8%
Santa Clara 8.3% 4.7% 3.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 91.7 3.8%
Oregon St. 2.5% 1.8% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 97.5 0.7%
Seattle 2.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 97.8 0.5%
Loyola Marymount 2.3% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 97.7 0.4%
Washington St. 1.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0 0.1%
San Diego 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4 0.1%
Pacific 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Portland 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 85.4% 3.6% 83.8% 63.5% 34.1% 17.4% 8.7% 4.2% 2.0%
St. Mary's 39.6% 7.9% 35.9% 19.2% 6.5% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
San Francisco 15.7% 3.1% 14.1% 6.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 8.3% 1.7% 7.4% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 2.5% 0.5% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 2.3% 0.3% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 2.3% 0.3% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 1.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.6 48.9 44.3 6.5 0.3 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.5 54.7 40.8 4.3 0.1
2nd Round 77.0% 0.9 23.0 61.0 15.3 0.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 41.0% 0.4 59.0 38.5 2.5 0.0
Elite Eight 20.3% 0.2 79.7 19.9 0.5
Final Four 9.8% 0.1 90.3 9.7 0.1
Final Game 4.5% 0.0 95.5 4.5
Champion 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1