West Coast
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
11 Gonzaga 99.0%   4   5 - 2 0 - 0 25 - 5 14 - 2 +17.4      +12.1 4 +5.3 50 80.3 9 +18.2 14 0.0 1
32 St. Mary's 72.0%   10   6 - 2 0 - 0 22 - 8 12 - 4 +12.5      +2.6 99 +9.9 9 61.9 339 +8.1 73 0.0 1
84 San Francisco 13.9%   6 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 10 9 - 7 +6.4      +3.3 85 +3.1 84 77.6 26 +10.4 58 0.0 1
87 BYU 11.2%   4 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 12 8 - 8 +6.2      +3.5 82 +2.6 99 74.7 61 +6.3 90 0.0 1
103 Santa Clara 8.4%   5 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 12 8 - 8 +4.7      +2.0 113 +2.7 95 76.8 33 +9.2 66 0.0 1
110 Portland 3.7%   4 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 14 7 - 9 +4.1      +5.5 45 -1.5 221 73.4 76 +3.4 125 0.0 1
132 Loyola Marymount 2.9%   5 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 15 7 - 9 +2.6      +3.9 76 -1.3 215 68.3 193 +5.1 102 0.0 1
134 Pepperdine 3.3%   3 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 13 7 - 9 +2.5      +1.3 133 +1.2 139 74.9 56 +4.1 113 0.0 1
179 San Diego 0.8%   3 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 17 5 - 11 -0.5      +1.8 121 -2.3 241 65.4 266 -0.7 191 0.0 1
228 Pacific 0.2%   2 - 5 0 - 0 9 - 20 4 - 12 -3.6      +0.5 159 -4.1 290 73.4 75 -11.6 322 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Gonzaga 1.3 76.8 16.7 4.2 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Mary's 2.4 26.4 42.2 15.8 7.6 4.0 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
San Francisco 4.5 3.9 12.9 20.5 17.6 14.4 11.4 8.6 5.9 3.4 1.3
BYU 4.7 3.8 12.1 19.0 16.8 14.7 12.1 9.3 6.7 4.0 1.5
Santa Clara 5.3 2.0 7.8 14.4 15.9 14.9 13.9 12.2 9.8 6.2 2.9
Portland 5.5 1.4 6.5 12.9 15.0 15.5 14.4 12.9 10.8 7.3 3.5
Loyola Marymount 6.0 0.8 4.2 9.3 12.7 14.3 15.2 14.9 13.6 10.1 4.9
Pepperdine 6.1 1.2 4.8 10.4 12.3 13.0 13.6 13.6 13.2 11.4 6.5
San Diego 7.5 0.2 1.4 3.9 5.8 8.2 10.3 13.2 16.9 21.5 18.7
Pacific 8.6 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.2 3.6 5.7 8.8 13.7 23.5 41.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Gonzaga 14 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.8 5.9 11.7 18.5 24.1 23.0 12.1
St. Mary's 12 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.5 8.0 12.4 16.7 19.1 17.4 11.8 5.2 1.2
San Francisco 9 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.0 5.7 9.2 13.5 15.4 16.4 13.9 10.7 6.3 3.1 1.1 0.3 0.0
BYU 8 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.4 6.2 10.0 14.0 15.8 15.7 13.2 9.9 5.6 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.0
Santa Clara 8 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.7 5.4 9.3 13.1 15.7 15.9 14.0 10.8 6.5 3.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Portland 7 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.2 6.0 10.2 14.3 16.3 15.9 13.2 9.7 5.6 2.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Loyola Marymount 7 - 9 0.0 0.5 1.9 4.6 8.4 12.7 16.2 16.9 15.2 10.9 6.7 3.8 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Pepperdine 7 - 9 0.1 0.8 2.6 5.5 9.1 12.5 14.8 15.4 13.4 10.7 7.5 4.4 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
San Diego 5 - 11 0.9 3.7 8.0 12.8 15.6 16.2 14.4 11.7 7.8 4.5 2.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Pacific 4 - 12 3.3 10.0 16.3 18.4 17.6 13.8 9.5 5.7 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 76.8% 63.7 11.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Mary's 26.4% 15.9 9.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Francisco 3.9% 1.8 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
BYU 3.8% 1.7 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Santa Clara 2.0% 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Portland 1.4% 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Loyola Marymount 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Pepperdine 1.2% 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pacific 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 99.0% 55.6% 43.4% 4   14.8 16.5 14.4 14.8 11.6 8.7 6.9 4.6 3.3 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.0 97.7%
St. Mary's 72.0% 22.3% 49.7% 10   0.6 1.0 1.7 3.2 4.5 5.0 7.9 9.1 11.8 13.2 10.9 2.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 28.0 64.0%
San Francisco 13.9% 5.4% 8.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.4 4.2 2.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 86.1 9.0%
BYU 11.2% 5.2% 6.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.2 2.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 88.8 6.4%
Santa Clara 8.4% 3.8% 4.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.5 1.8 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 91.6 4.7%
Portland 3.7% 2.8% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 96.3 0.8%
Loyola Marymount 2.9% 1.8% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 97.1 1.1%
Pepperdine 3.3% 2.1% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 96.7 1.3%
San Diego 0.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 99.2 0.0%
Pacific 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Gonzaga 99.0% 0.7% 98.7% 81.7% 51.8% 28.1% 14.5% 7.2% 3.4%
St. Mary's 72.0% 8.2% 68.3% 38.2% 13.7% 5.7% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3%
San Francisco 13.9% 3.9% 11.8% 4.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
BYU 11.2% 3.0% 9.6% 3.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 8.4% 2.6% 7.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 3.7% 0.8% 3.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 2.9% 0.8% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 3.3% 0.9% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.8% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.2 15.0 57.7 24.3 2.9 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 2.0 18.8 59.4 20.1 1.7 0.0
2nd Round 91.1% 1.3 8.9 54.2 34.2 2.7 0.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 60.3% 0.7 39.7 52.7 7.4 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 32.9% 0.3 67.1 31.4 1.5 0.0
Final Four 16.5% 0.2 83.5 16.2 0.3
Final Game 8.0% 0.1 92.0 8.0 0.0
Champion 3.6% 0.0 96.4 3.6