West Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Gonzaga 100.0%   1   6 - 1 0 - 0 27 - 3 15 - 1 +23.2      +15.5 1 +7.7 19 79.3 21 +20.3 4 0.0 1
20 BYU 92.5%   6   5 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 6 12 - 4 +14.2      +8.0 17 +6.2 39 68.8 195 +20.1 6 0.0 1
42 St. Mary's 62.9%   10   6 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 10 10 - 6 +10.1      +2.2 109 +8.0 15 62.0 333 +14.1 30 0.0 1
49 San Francisco 50.3%   11   8 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 10 - 6 +9.2      +3.9 78 +5.3 48 69.4 177 +15.6 20 0.0 1
77 Santa Clara 12.9%   5 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 11 9 - 7 +6.7      +5.3 47 +1.4 117 74.4 66 +6.4 89 0.0 1
117 Loyola Marymount 3.7%   3 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 14 7 - 9 +3.3      +3.6 82 -0.3 182 65.5 274 +3.6 128 0.0 1
141 San Diego 1.0%   3 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 14 7 - 9 +2.0      -0.5 188 +2.5 98 72.2 97 +0.8 164 0.0 1
189 Pacific 0.1%   2 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 18 5 - 11 -1.2      -1.9 230 +0.6 147 66.0 261 -12.5 328 0.0 1
235 Pepperdine 0.0%   2 - 6 0 - 0 8 - 22 4 - 12 -3.7      -2.5 253 -1.2 216 72.3 93 -6.9 273 0.0 1
255 Portland 0.0%   5 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 18 3 - 13 -5.2      -4.0 284 -1.3 218 73.9 76 0.0 175 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Gonzaga 1.1 88.0 10.4 1.3 0.3 0.0
BYU 2.5 16.3 47.2 20.4 8.8 4.6 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
St. Mary's 3.8 3.5 20.2 25.9 21.5 13.9 9.0 4.1 1.6 0.4 0.0
San Francisco 3.9 2.2 18.3 24.1 23.7 15.5 9.0 4.7 1.8 0.7 0.0
Santa Clara 4.6 1.0 9.8 19.3 20.2 19.9 14.5 9.0 4.2 1.5 0.6
Loyola Marymount 6.1 0.2 2.2 6.5 12.2 15.1 21.2 20.1 12.8 7.1 2.7
San Diego 5.9 0.3 3.4 7.7 13.5 15.8 20.3 16.9 12.7 6.7 2.8
Pacific 7.5 0.0 0.4 1.3 4.0 7.8 12.7 18.3 23.8 18.7 13.0
Pepperdine 8.4 0.2 0.3 1.0 2.6 6.4 13.2 22.0 28.3 26.0
Portland 8.6 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.9 5.6 10.0 18.6 28.0 34.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Gonzaga 15 - 1 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.6 10.0 21.3 30.9 32.5
BYU 12 - 4 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.6 3.4 7.3 11.4 17.6 20.7 18.3 13.1 5.0 1.0
St. Mary's 10 - 6 0.1 0.1 0.8 1.9 3.9 7.9 12.7 17.0 18.9 14.9 12.5 6.2 2.5 0.5 0.1
San Francisco 10 - 6 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 4.9 7.4 14.7 18.1 18.7 14.8 11.0 5.3 1.5 0.3 0.0
Santa Clara 9 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 4.8 8.9 13.8 15.7 18.4 14.6 10.9 6.4 2.1 0.8 0.2
Loyola Marymount 7 - 9 0.1 0.4 2.0 4.8 9.3 13.2 17.1 17.1 14.6 10.9 5.9 3.1 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
San Diego 7 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.9 4.5 8.9 11.4 14.8 17.8 14.7 10.8 7.7 4.1 2.2 0.6 0.2 0.1
Pacific 5 - 11 0.8 3.3 9.0 14.3 16.4 18.9 14.5 10.8 6.6 3.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.1
Pepperdine 4 - 12 2.4 9.2 17.9 19.3 20.3 14.2 9.4 4.5 2.1 0.5 0.4 0.1
Portland 3 - 13 4.8 13.1 19.1 19.6 17.9 11.8 7.9 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.2




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 88.0% 78.1 9.0 0.9 0.0
BYU 16.3% 8.7 6.8 0.8 0.0
St. Mary's 3.5% 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.0
San Francisco 2.2% 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0
Santa Clara 1.0% 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Loyola Marymount 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.3% 0.1 0.2 0.1
Pacific 0.0% 0.0
Pepperdine
Portland


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 100.0% 73.0% 27.0% 1   51.8 29.2 9.5 4.9 2.2 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 100.0%
BYU 92.5% 15.4% 77.1% 6   5.2 8.4 8.6 11.0 11.1 11.3 8.0 7.6 7.6 7.3 5.2 1.3 0.2 7.5 91.2%
St. Mary's 62.9% 4.8% 58.1% 10   0.2 0.8 1.3 2.8 3.4 4.9 6.0 7.9 9.6 10.7 11.0 4.1 0.2 37.1 61.1%
San Francisco 50.3% 3.6% 46.8% 11   0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.4 2.5 3.5 4.5 7.0 8.8 12.0 6.9 0.4 49.7 48.5%
Santa Clara 12.9% 2.1% 10.9% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.9 4.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 87.1 11.1%
Loyola Marymount 3.7% 0.6% 3.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 96.4 3.0%
San Diego 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.0 0.5%
Pacific 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Gonzaga 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 96.9% 81.9% 63.9% 46.2% 31.9% 22.2%
BYU 92.5% 4.2% 90.4% 63.3% 33.2% 15.4% 7.0% 3.1% 1.1%
St. Mary's 62.9% 10.4% 57.6% 30.1% 9.5% 3.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
San Francisco 50.3% 14.2% 43.6% 19.2% 5.9% 2.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Santa Clara 12.9% 4.3% 10.8% 4.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 3.7% 1.6% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.2 0.5 15.1 48.6 32.3 3.4 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 3.1 0.9 21.5 50.3 25.4 1.8 0.1
2nd Round 99.4% 2.1 0.6 18.6 50.3 26.7 3.8 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 90.6% 1.3 9.4 53.7 33.1 3.6 0.2
Elite Eight 73.0% 0.9 27.0 61.2 11.5 0.3
Final Four 51.5% 0.6 48.5 48.0 3.5
Final Game 34.9% 0.4 65.1 34.1 0.8
Champion 23.5% 0.2 76.5 23.5