Portland
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.3 221
Expected Predictive Rating -1.7 188
Pace 70.6 122
Improvement -0.7 216

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 233 C C+ D- C C+
Defense C- 204 C D+ C C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 74 B- 62% 93 +3.8 55
2 Pt. Jumpers 40% 155 C 38% 187 -0.5 203
Three Pointers 38% 238 D 31% 310 -3.4 301
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 129 C -0.5 190
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 177
Second Chance C- 29.4% 211 B+ 1.18 31 C+ 0.35 99
Turnovers D- 19.6% 330
Freethrows C- 0.30 218 C+ 73% 155 C 0.22 190
Total Offense C- -2.3 233

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots A+ 71% 1 B+ 7.6% 32
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 35% 55 B- 3.9% 97
Three Pointers B- 88% 99 B 0.4% 65
Total A 69% 10 B+ 4.2% 34

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 260 C 58% 181 -1.4 128
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 264 A 30% 6 -2.4 16
Three Pointers 46% 43 C- 35% 229 +3.2 317
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 203 C+ -0.7 150
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 154
Second Chance D+ 32.4% 267 C- 1.07 249 D+ 0.35 273
Turnovers C 17.2% 158
Freethrows C 0.30 184 C- 73% 226 C 0.22 185
Total Defense C- -1.0 204

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 56% 332 C+ 11.8% 133
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 44% 356 C- 4.2% 216
Three Pointers F 93% 99 C- 0.7% 65
Total F 69% 358 C- 5.3% 199

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.0 137 17.3 178
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 248 0.19 244
Improvement +1.8 #100 -2.5 #301

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 4% 0% 5%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Seattle (Away) - 20.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 4
Quad 20 - 71 - 10
Quad 35 - 66 - 16
Quad 45 - 311 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 318 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 83 - 74 82% +10  92% 1 - 0 C- -4 F -12 D F+ F A- +7 A D- A
 Sun, Nov 9 180 UC Davis W 67 - 63 54% -0  49% 2 - 0 C -0 F+ -9 F+ D+ F A +9 A+ F A
 Sat, Nov 15 105 @Wyoming L 56 - 93 16% -16  1% 2 - 1 F -30 F -18 F D- D F -12 C F D
 Fri, Nov 21 211 Cal St. Fullerton W 103 - 85 60% +13  94% 3 - 1 B+ +12 A+ +15 A+ A+ B D+ -5 F A- C+
 Sat, Nov 22 156 Northern Colorado L 80 - 86 OT 49% -2  14% 3 - 2 D -9 F+ -8 D- A+ F C+ +0 B D D-
 Sun, Nov 23 122 St. Thomas L 66 - 76 38% -5  1% 3 - 3 D -10 F -13 C- A- F B- +3 A- F D
 Wed, Nov 26 260 Long Beach St. W 93 - 73 69% +11  94% 4 - 3 B+ +11 A +11 A+ C F+ C -0 B C- C+
 Mon, Dec 1 75 @Stanford L 72 - 94 10% -14  7% 4 - 4 D- -11 C+ +3 A B F F -14 D F F+
 Sun, Dec 14 143 Kent St. W 88 - 78 45% +0  46% 5 - 4 B- +8 C- -2 B+ D+ F+ A- +8 A- D A+
 Wed, Dec 17 89 @Oregon L 69 - 94 13% -11  2% 5 - 5 F+ -16 F+ -9 D C+ F D+ -4 F B- B
 Mon, Dec 22 140 @UC Santa Barbara L 61 - 79 24% -11  8% 5 - 6 D- -14 F -10 F A+ F D -6 F D+ B
 Sun, Dec 28 121 Washington St. L 62 - 67 38% -3  21% 5 - 7 0 - 1 D+ -5 F -15 F A A+ A +9 A A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 30 42 Santa Clara L 85 - 92 13% -1  49% 5 - 8 0 - 2 C+ +2 A- +11 A+ A C F+ -8 F+ B- A-
 Fri, Jan 2 41 @St. Mary's L 57 - 78 5% -14  1% 5 - 9 0 - 3 D+ -5 D -4 F+ C B- C- -3 D- B+ C-
 Sun, Jan 4 117 @San Francisco L 68 - 73 19% +4  69% 5 - 10 0 - 4 C +1 D+ -3 B- F F B +4 A C- C-
 Thu, Jan 8 127 Pacific W 90 - 89 OT 39% +4  74% 6 - 10 1 - 4 C +0 A- +11 A- A+ F+ F -10 C C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 158 Oregon St. W 82 - 76 49% -2  33% 7 - 10 2 - 4 C+ +3 A- +10 C B+ A D- -7 C- B F+
 Wed, Jan 14 276 @Pepperdine L 63 - 67 51% -0  43% 7 - 11 2 - 5 D+ -8 F -12 F F+ D+ B +4 C+ F C+
 Sat, Jan 17 153 @Loyola Marymount W 71 - 58 27% +11  90% 8 - 11 3 - 5 A- +16 C- -1 B- D+ D+ A+ +17 A+ C B+
 Sat, Jan 24 41 St. Mary's L 69 - 75 11% -4  1% 8 - 12 3 - 6 C+ +4 B- +4 B- B B- C -1 D+ A+ B
 Wed, Jan 28 127 @Pacific L 51 - 74 20% -15  2% 8 - 13 3 - 7 F+ -18 F -16 F F F D+ -4 C+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 121 @Washington St. L 74 - 104 20% -15  3% 8 - 14 3 - 8 F -24 D+ -3 D- A+ B F -21 F F F
 Wed, Feb 4 10 Gonzaga W 87 - 80 4% +6  94% 9 - 14 4 - 8 A+ +23 A+ +15 A+ A- D A- +8 A+ C+ D+
 Sat, Feb 7 126 Seattle W 54 - 53 39% -4  26% 10 - 14 5 - 8 C +0 F+ -8 F A+ B- A +9 A- C+ A+
 Wed, Feb 11 222 @San Diego L 58 - 71 39% -2  46% 10 - 15 5 - 9 D- -13 F -13 F C- F C- -2 F A B
 Wed, Feb 18 276 Pepperdine L 87 - 95 73% +1  41% 10 - 16 5 - 10 F -18 B +7 A+ F+ C- F -25 F F F
 Sat, Feb 21 126 @Seattle L 64 - 73 20%
 Wed, Feb 25 10 @Gonzaga L 65 - 91 1%
 Sat, Feb 28 222 San Diego W 79 - 76 61%
Totals 11 - 18 6 - 12 -3 C- -2 A+ C C+ C- -1 D C+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B- C D C 42% 40% 38% C+ C C- B+ C+ D- C- C+ C C- C A C- C+ 36% 18% 46% C- C D+ C- D+ C C C- C
1.05 62% 38% 31% -1 0 1.02 29% 1.2 .35 20% .30 73% .22 1.10 58% 30% 35% -1 0 1.01 32% 1.1 .35 17% .30 73% .22
Nov
6		 Arkansas Pine Bluff F B+ B- F D- 42% 9% 49% B D F B+ F+ F A+ B A+ A- B A+ B A+ 36% 18% 46% D A B- F D- A F F F
1.01 68% 40% 23% -4 +2 0.98 23% 1.3 .29 23% .50 78% .39 0.90 50% 11% 30% -10 0 0.82 24% 1.3 .32 23% .43 89% .38
Nov
9		 UC Davis F+ D- F C F+ 38% 19% 43% D+ F+ C+ F+ D+ F A C A A A+ F A+ A+ 25% 16% 59% C A+ F C F A B- C B-
0.96 50% 22% 35% -5 0 0.91 32% 0.8 .27 24% .42 73% .30 0.91 38% 50% 23% -12 0 0.76 38% 1.0 .38 23% .30 75% .22
Nov
15		 Wyoming F D+ F+ F F 56% 23% 21% C F D F+ D- D A+ F B+ F F A+ C+ C 40% 12% 47% C C F F+ F D B+ F+ B-
0.80 54% 30% 11% -11 +1 0.81 21% 0.8 .16 18% .58 55% .31 1.32 70% 14% 33% +1 +1 1.07 44% 1.2 .51 14% .28 82% .23
Nov
21		 Cal St. Fullerton A+ B+ A A+ A+ 46% 18% 36% C+ A+ D A+ A+ B D C- D D+ D C F F 38% 14% 48% D F C- A+ A- C+ B+ A+ A+
1.32 69% 50% 50% +16 +1 1.36 24% 2.5 .60 17% .26 71% .18 1.09 64% 38% 43% +8 +1 1.21 26% 0.6 .16 17% .28 50% .14
Nov
22		 Northern Colorado F+ C B- F F 48% 12% 40% B+ D- B- A+ A+ F F C- F C+ B- F A+ A- 43% 15% 43% D B A+ F D D- D+ F F+
0.99 59% 43% 17% -10 +2 0.87 30% 1.6 .48 17% .24 75% .18 1.07 58% 56% 27% -2 +1 1.00 17% 2.0 .34 14% .26 89% .23
Nov
23		 St. Thomas F C- D+ C C- 47% 18% 35% C+ C- B B+ A- F F F F B- C A+ B A 34% 4% 63% C- A- C- F F D C+ F C-
0.92 58% 33% 33% -1 +1 1.02 34% 1.3 .45 28% .14 57% .08 1.06 63% 0% 31% -2 +2 1.02 22% 1.4 .30 13% .29 78% .22
Nov
26		 Long Beach St. A A+ A+ A+ A+ 70% 11% 19% A+ A+ F A+ C F+ C- A+ B C C B- A B+ 34% 17% 49% F B C- D+ C- C+ F+ B D
1.30 76% 80% 44% +20 +4 1.49 18% 2.0 .35 21% .33 89% .30 1.02 61% 33% 27% -5 0 0.92 27% 1.1 .30 18% .34 70% .24
Dec
1		 Stanford C+ A C- A+ A+ 38% 33% 29% D A C A B F A+ B A+ F C A+ F D 44% 4% 53% D D C F F F+ C B- C+
1.04 69% 36% 42% +7 -2 1.12 27% 1.3 .35 26% .47 79% .37 1.35 58% 0% 41% +5 +3 1.16 34% 1.5 .51 12% .33 70% .23
Dec
14		 Kent St. C- A- A C- A- 47% 18% 35% C+ B+ F+ A- D+ F+ C- D- D+ A- C- A+ A+ A 45% 18% 37% D+ A- D- C D A+ F F F
1.08 68% 45% 33% +6 +1 1.15 23% 1.1 .26 20% .32 67% .21 0.96 59% 22% 22% -9 +1 0.86 39% 1.1 .42 29% .49 86% .42
Dec
17		 Oregon F+ B F F D- 40% 21% 40% B+ D D A C+ F D B- D+ D+ F A+ F F 34% 14% 52% C F B+ D+ B- B D+ F F+
0.88 61% 25% 26% -6 0 0.90 25% 1.1 .28 22% .23 79% .18 1.19 70% 25% 43% +10 +1 1.22 30% 1.2 .36 19% .36 83% .30
Dec
22		 UC Santa Barbara F C- F+ F F 50% 19% 31% B F B- A+ A+ F F F F D F A+ F F 34% 11% 55% D F C- D+ D+ B A+ A+ A+
0.96 58% 33% 13% -10 +1 0.83 31% 1.6 .50 22% .22 64% .14 1.24 81% 20% 46% +16 +1 1.36 33% 1.1 .37 20% .18 56% .10
Dec
28		 Washington St. F F F F F 36% 18% 45% B- F B- A+ A A+ A F C+ A C+ A+ C- A+ 33% 18% 49% C+ A C+ A+ A+ C+ F A- F
0.91 45% 10% 16% -22 0 0.58 30% 1.4 .43 9% .38 58% .22 0.98 60% 13% 36% -2 0 0.98 28% 0.5 .15 19% .51 68% .34
Dec
30		 Santa Clara A- A+ A B+ A+ 43% 18% 39% C A+ A B A C D- F F F+ D F D- F 33% 24% 43% A- F+ F A+ B- A- D- F F
1.19 86% 44% 37% +15 +1 1.33 40% 1.1 .44 21% .28 63% .18 1.29 67% 69% 39% +14 -1 1.28 46% 0.8 .36 20% .30 82% .24
Jan
2		 St. Mary's D D+ A F F 46% 25% 29% B- F+ A- F C B- B- A+ A- C- F A+ F F+ 31% 18% 51% C+ D- A- C B+ C- D- B+ D+
0.89 50% 46% 7% -14 0 0.75 33% 0.7 .23 14% .27 87% .24 1.22 71% 25% 43% +9 0 1.20 31% 1.1 .34 16% .39 76% .30
Jan
4		 San Francisco D+ A+ A+ F B- 32% 21% 47% C- B- D- F F F A+ B+ A+ B A- A+ C- A 33% 14% 53% C A F A+ C- C- F A+ F
1.01 73% 60% 23% +2 -1 1.04 21% 0.7 .14 25% .38 79% .30 1.08 50% 0% 35% -7 0 0.88 50% 0.8 .38 15% .59 62% .36
Jan
8		 Pacific A- B F A+ A 20% 39% 41% F A- A+ A A+ F+ C- A+ B F B- A F C+ 45% 20% 35% D+ C F A C- F F F F
1.23 64% 24% 55% +8 -4 1.11 37% 1.2 .46 19% .30 83% .25 1.21 52% 30% 44% +1 +1 1.06 45% 0.8 .37 14% .41 85% .35
Jan
10		 Oregon St. A- B+ F D C 40% 17% 43% C C B- A- B+ A A+ A+ A+ D- D+ D- C+ D+ 37% 24% 39% B- C- B B- B F+ F C+ F
1.24 63% 25% 30% -3 +1 0.98 35% 1.2 .42 11% .58 88% .51 1.15 59% 45% 33% +2 -1 1.04 22% 1.2 .26 14% .58 76% .44
Jan
14		 Pepperdine F B+ F F F 38% 9% 53% C+ F B- F F+ D+ F D- F B D A+ B C+ 36% 18% 45% D+ C+ C+ F F C+ F A+ C
0.93 67% 20% 21% -9 +1 0.87 34% 0.7 .24 18% .16 67% .11 0.99 63% 25% 30% -3 0 0.95 27% 1.4 .39 19% .37 60% .22
Jan
17		 Loyola Marymount C- D- D A+ B- 38% 30% 32% C- B- D C D+ D+ B+ C+ B+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 21% 31% 48% A A+ B F+ C B+ F+ F F
1.02 47% 33% 44% -1 -1 0.98 26% 1.0 .26 17% .35 75% .26 0.83 50% 13% 26% -15 -3 0.67 24% 1.2 .29 22% .33 78% .26
Jan
24		 St. Mary's B- C- F A- B- 43% 24% 33% C+ B- D+ A+ B B- B+ A+ A+ C B C- F D+ 46% 17% 37% D D+ B- A+ A+ B C F D
1.06 52% 25% 38% -4 0 0.94 21% 1.4 .30 14% .30 88% .27 1.15 52% 38% 47% +5 +1 1.13 34% 0.7 .24 18% .34 89% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Pacific F F C+ F F 31% 13% 56% A- F D- F F F A+ D+ A+ D+ D F A+ C+ 44% 25% 31% C+ C+ C- F F D+ B- A- B
0.80 33% 40% 27% -13 0 0.77 19% 0.7 .13 22% .56 68% .38 1.16 62% 50% 27% +1 0 1.04 35% 1.5 .55 19% .25 69% .17
Jan
31		 Washington St. D+ F A+ F F+ 40% 26% 34% C D- B+ A+ A+ B A+ F A- F F+ A+ F F 39% 13% 48% D F D+ F F F C- F D
1.03 40% 62% 24% -6 -1 0.88 33% 1.5 .49 13% .48 57% .27 1.45 73% 14% 52% +16 +1 1.36 32% 1.5 .48 11% .30 84% .25
Feb
4		 Gonzaga A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 47% 21% 32% A A+ B+ B+ A- D A- A+ A+ A- A+ A- C+ A+ 32% 21% 47% C- A+ B D+ C+ D+ F C+ F
1.18 73% 60% 47% +18 +1 1.38 30% 1.0 .30 23% .35 80% .28 1.08 50% 33% 33% -4 -1 0.93 33% 1.2 .41 12% .40 69% .28
Feb
7		 Seattle F+ F F F F 50% 15% 35% A- F B- A+ A+ B- F A+ D- A D- A+ A- A- 28% 16% 56% B A- F+ A+ C+ A+ C+ C C+
0.86 39% 29% 19% -19 +2 0.67 34% 1.4 .49 19% .20 80% .16 0.85 67% 14% 29% -5 0 0.91 31% 0.6 .19 24% .27 69% .19
Feb
11		 San Diego F A A F F 40% 18% 42% C F F A+ C- F D- A+ B C- A+ F+ F F 33% 22% 45% C F D- A+ A B A A+ A
0.91 72% 50% 11% -7 0 0.89 22% 1.6 .35 24% .29 100% .29 1.11 44% 45% 55% +11 -1 1.22 34% 0.5 .17 20% .16 63% .10
Feb
18		 Pepperdine B A+ A A+ A+ 55% 15% 30% B- A+ F A+ F+ C- B F C F A C+ F F 31% 22% 47% C+ F F F F F F B- F+
1.25 76% 50% 44% +16 +2 1.38 16% 1.5 .24 17% .31 61% .19 1.36 44% 36% 54% +9 -1 1.20 44% 1.6 .72 13% .38 74% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.8 0.0 0.8 6th
7th 6.2 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 5.1 6.2 11.3 8th
9th 37.8 0.1 37.9 9th
10th 15.0 12.6 27.6 10th
11th 15.9 15.9 11th
12th 0.3 0.3 12th
Total 31.1 55.5 13.3 0.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11 13.3% 13.3
6-12 55.5% 55.5
5-13 31.1% 31.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 27.7%