Portland
West Coast
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#251
Expected Predictive Rating+0.6#165
Pace74.1#73
Improvement+0.9#104

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#275
First Shot-1.2#208
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#305
Layup/Dunks-4.2#314
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#68
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#272
Freethrows+3.9#9
Improvement+1.5#46

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#219
First Shot+0.0#171
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#265
Layups/Dunks+0.2#187
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#323
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#165
Freethrows+1.9#72
Improvement-0.6#243
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 14.0
.500 or above 11.4% 15.4% 4.6%
.500 or above in Conference 3.5% 4.3% 2.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 45.0% 41.4% 51.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Home) - 63.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 6
Quad 21 - 41 - 10
Quad 32 - 63 - 16
Quad 410 - 312 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 96   @ Arizona St. L 60-76 11%     0 - 1 -7.7 -14.7 +8.4
  Nov 13, 2021 315   Alcorn St. W 62-58 74%     1 - 1 -7.8 -14.7 +6.9
  Nov 18, 2021 357   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 86-74 94%     2 - 1 -10.7 -1.4 -9.9
  Nov 20, 2021 314   Morgan St. W 74-63 74%     3 - 1 -0.8 -7.1 +5.9
  Nov 23, 2021 269   @ Portland St. W 69-54 43%     4 - 1 +12.0 -6.1 +17.5
  Nov 26, 2021 181   Montana St. L 66-69 35%     4 - 2 -4.0 +1.0 -5.5
  Nov 27, 2021 303   Southeast Missouri St. W 74-68 62%     5 - 2 -1.9 -7.3 +5.2
  Nov 28, 2021 350   @ Incarnate Word W 77-68 74%     6 - 2 -2.7 -5.9 +2.9
  Dec 03, 2021 261   VMI W 73-69 63%    
  Dec 13, 2021 316   Cal Poly W 70-63 74%    
  Dec 15, 2021 44   @ Oregon L 62-80 5%    
  Dec 17, 2021 280   San Jose St. W 73-69 66%    
  Dec 19, 2021 181   @ Montana St. L 70-77 24%    
  Dec 22, 2021 212   @ UC Davis L 71-77 31%    
  Jan 01, 2022 20   BYU L 65-81 7%    
  Jan 06, 2022 130   @ Loyola Marymount L 67-77 17%    
  Jan 08, 2022 82   Santa Clara L 71-80 22%    
  Jan 13, 2022 153   @ San Diego L 65-74 21%    
  Jan 15, 2022 235   @ Pepperdine L 71-75 35%    
  Jan 20, 2022 49   San Francisco L 66-77 15%    
  Jan 22, 2022 20   @ BYU L 62-84 2%    
  Jan 27, 2022 187   Pacific L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 29, 2022 1   @ Gonzaga L 66-95 0.5%   
  Feb 03, 2022 41   St. Mary's L 58-70 13%    
  Feb 05, 2022 49   @ San Francisco L 63-80 7%    
  Feb 12, 2022 130   Loyola Marymount L 70-74 35%    
  Feb 17, 2022 153   San Diego L 68-71 41%    
  Feb 19, 2022 235   Pepperdine W 74-72 56%    
  Feb 24, 2022 187   @ Pacific L 65-72 28%    
  Feb 26, 2022 82   @ Santa Clara L 68-83 10%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 4 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 4th
5th 0.3 1.6 1.5 0.1 3.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 5.8 4.4 0.5 0.0 12.4 7th
8th 0.0 2.6 9.4 5.9 0.8 0.0 18.7 8th
9th 0.5 5.4 11.6 7.1 0.8 0.0 25.5 9th
10th 3.6 11.1 11.0 5.3 0.6 31.5 10th
Total 3.6 11.6 16.4 19.5 18.7 13.4 8.7 4.6 2.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.1% 0.1
10-6 0.2% 11.6% 11.6% 13.0 0.0 0.2
9-7 0.6% 0.6
8-8 2.5% 2.5
7-9 4.6% 4.6
6-10 8.7% 8.7
5-11 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 13.4
4-12 18.7% 18.7
3-13 19.5% 19.5
2-14 16.4% 16.4
1-15 11.6% 11.6
0-16 3.6% 3.6
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%