Portland
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.3 #218
Expected Predictive Rating -2.3 #209
Pace 71.6 #106
Improvement +1.0 #140

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #239 C C+ D- C C+
Defense #190 C+ C- C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #89 1.23 #94 +3.5 #68
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #196 0.69 #282 -1.0 #233
Three Pointers 39% #234 0.92 #298 -3.1 #292
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #190 -0.6 #191
Freethrows 0.29 #221 73% #180 0.21 #205
Second Chance 30.0% #204 1.13 #78 0.34 #131
Turnovers 19.4% #339
Total Offense -2.6 #239

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #238 1.18 #207 +0.7 #149
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #244 0.60 #8 +2.3 #26
Three Pointers 45% #70 0.98 #133 -1.3 #240
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #127 +1.7 #127
Freethrows 0.30 #178 74% #247 0.22 #196
Second Chance 30.9% #198 1.11 #276 0.34 #245
Turnovers 16.6% #171
Total Defense -0.8 #190

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #144 0.3% #196
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.8% #201 -3.6% #108
Possession Length 17.0 #134 17.3 #166
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #254 0.19 #253
Improvement +1.4 #112 -0.4 #216

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.1% 4.6% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.9% 3.0% 11.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington St. (Away) - 21.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 70 - 11
Quad 34 - 55 - 16
Quad 46 - 311 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 83 - 74 82% +14  1 - 0 -4 -9 D F+ F +3 A+ D A+
 Sun, Nov 9 198 UC Davis W 67 - 63 57% -0  2 - 0 -1 -8 F+ D+ F +7 A+ D- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 113 @Wyoming L 56 - 93 19% -16  2 - 1 -31 -15 F D D+ -16 C- F D+
 Fri, Nov 21 217 Cal St. Fullerton W 103 - 85 61% +13  3 - 1 +12 +17 A+ A+ B -7 F A- B-
 Sat, Nov 22 188 Northern Colorado L 80 - 86 OT 56% -2  3 - 2 -11 -8 D- A+ F -2 B D+ D-
 Sun, Nov 23 137 St. Thomas L 66 - 76 43% -5  3 - 3 -12 -10 C B+ F -1 B+ F+ D+
 Wed, Nov 26 254 Long Beach St. W 93 - 73 69% +11  4 - 3 +12 +14 A+ C F -3 B- C- B-
 Mon, Dec 1 83 @Stanford L 72 - 94 11% -14  4 - 4 -12 +5 A- B- F -17 D F D-
 Sun, Dec 14 143 Kent St. W 88 - 78 44% +0  5 - 4 +8 +0 B+ D+ F +6 A D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 79 @Oregon L 69 - 94 11% -11  5 - 5 -15 -6 D+ C+ F -6 F B- B-
 Mon, Dec 22 133 @UC Santa Barbara L 61 - 79 22% -11  5 - 6 -13 -6 F A+ F -9 F D+ B
 Sun, Dec 28 128 Washington St. L 62 - 67 42% -3  5 - 7 0 - 1 -6 -12 F A- A+ +5 A A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 30 49 Santa Clara L 85 - 92 15% -1  5 - 8 0 - 2 +1 +14 A+ A- C -13 F+ B+ B+
 Fri, Jan 2 43 @St. Mary's L 57 - 78 6% -14  5 - 9 0 - 3 -6 -3 F+ C- C+ -5 D B C
 Sun, Jan 4 98 @San Francisco L 68 - 73 14% +4  5 - 10 0 - 4 +3 +2 B+ F+ F +1 A+ D+ C-
 Thu, Jan 8 122 Pacific W 90 - 89 OT 40% +4  6 - 10 1 - 4 +0 +13 A- A+ F -13 B- C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 182 Oregon St. W 82 - 76 55% -2  7 - 10 2 - 4 +1 +11 C- B+ A- -10 C- B- F+
 Wed, Jan 14 283 @Pepperdine L 63 - 67 53% -0  7 - 11 2 - 5 -8 -7 F+ D- D+ -1 C F C
 Sat, Jan 17 161 @Loyola Marymount W 71 - 58 28% +11  8 - 11 3 - 5 +16 +3 B- D C- +13 A+ C B+
 Sat, Jan 24 43 St. Mary's L 69 - 75 13% -4  8 - 12 3 - 6 +3 +6 C+ B- C+ -3 D+ A+ B
 Wed, Jan 28 122 @Pacific L 51 - 74 21% -15  8 - 13 3 - 7 -18 -14 F F F -6 C+ F C
 Sat, Jan 31 128 @Washington St. L 73 - 81 22%
 Wed, Feb 4 11 Gonzaga L 68 - 88 3%
 Sat, Feb 7 124 Seattle L 67 - 70 40%
 Wed, Feb 11 202 @San Diego L 77 - 81 36%
 Wed, Feb 18 283 Pepperdine W 75 - 68 74%
 Sat, Feb 21 124 @Seattle L 64 - 73 22%
 Wed, Feb 25 11 @Gonzaga L 65 - 91 1%
 Sat, Feb 28 202 San Diego W 80 - 78 57%
Totals 11 - 18 6 - 12 -3 -3 C C+ D- -1 C+ C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 0.6 1.6 5th
6th 1.4 2.2 0.2 3.8 6th
7th 0.2 6.2 1.2 7.6 7th
8th 4.1 6.7 0.0 10.9 8th
9th 0.0 2.5 13.9 1.7 0.0 18.2 9th
10th 0.1 3.1 16.4 8.5 0.1 28.1 10th
11th 1.8 11.4 12.1 0.8 26.1 11th
12th 2.0 1.4 0.1 3.5 12th
Total 3.9 15.9 31.0 27.5 16.1 4.5 1.0 0.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.1% 0.1
9-9 1.0% 1.0
8-10 4.5% 4.5
7-11 16.1% 16.1
6-12 27.5% 27.5
5-13 31.0% 31.0
4-14 15.9% 15.9
3-15 3.9% 3.9
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.9%