Loyola Marymount
West Coast
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.4#92
Expected Predictive Rating+7.1#81
Pace68.0#191
Improvement+1.3#33

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#99
First Shot+2.5#90
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#165
Layup/Dunks+2.8#70
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#305
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#60
Freethrows-1.4#281
Improvement+0.4#116

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#103
First Shot+1.7#123
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#88
Layups/Dunks-4.1#328
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#197
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#9
Freethrows-0.1#195
Improvement+1.0#44
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 6.7% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.5% 2.9% 0.6%
Average Seed 11.3 11.2 12.0
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 92.4% 96.1% 76.9%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.8% 2.1% 0.5%
First Round4.9% 5.3% 3.0%
Second Round1.2% 1.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Home) - 80.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 12 - 4
Quad 23 - 35 - 7
Quad 34 - 310 - 10
Quad 49 - 118 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 159   UC Riverside L 79-81 76%     0 - 1 -4.1 -0.8 -3.2
  Nov 12, 2022 175   UC Davis W 85-75 78%     1 - 1 +7.3 +5.6 +1.1
  Nov 15, 2022 102   @ UC Irvine L 64-79 44%     1 - 2 -8.0 -4.7 -3.4
  Nov 18, 2022 197   Georgetown W 84-66 75%     2 - 2 +16.5 +8.0 +8.4
  Nov 20, 2022 66   Wake Forest W 77-75 OT 40%     3 - 2 +10.1 -2.7 +12.6
  Nov 23, 2022 281   Morgan St. W 81-80 OT 90%     4 - 2 -8.0 -3.0 -5.1
  Nov 25, 2022 247   Bellarmine W 80-59 88%     5 - 2 +13.8 +7.7 +7.4
  Nov 30, 2022 105   @ Colorado St. L 71-87 44%     5 - 3 -9.0 -0.1 -8.9
  Dec 03, 2022 62   Nevada W 64-52 47%     6 - 3 +18.1 -0.3 +19.6
  Dec 07, 2022 108   @ Grand Canyon W 69-65 47%     7 - 3 +10.3 +1.2 +9.3
  Dec 10, 2022 54   Utah St. L 67-79 35%     7 - 4 -2.6 -6.0 +3.7
  Dec 18, 2022 171   Cleveland St. W 70-59 77%     8 - 4 +8.5 +4.2 +5.6
  Dec 21, 2022 229   Tulsa W 76-64 86%     9 - 4 +5.9 +1.6 +4.6
  Dec 29, 2022 164   @ Portland W 92-72 59%     10 - 4 1 - 0 +23.0 +11.2 +10.5
  Dec 31, 2022 217   @ Pacific L 72-78 69%     10 - 5 1 - 1 -5.7 -6.9 +1.5
  Jan 05, 2023 81   BYU W 64-59 56%     11 - 5 2 - 1 +8.8 -5.6 +14.3
  Jan 07, 2023 91   San Francisco L 70-72 60%     11 - 6 2 - 2 +0.8 +1.5 -0.8
  Jan 12, 2023 10   @ St. Mary's L 62-76 12%     11 - 7 2 - 3 +4.1 +7.6 -4.9
  Jan 14, 2023 204   San Diego W 98-84 82%     12 - 7 3 - 3 +9.5 +16.2 -7.0
  Jan 19, 2023 14   @ Gonzaga W 68-67 13%     13 - 7 4 - 3 +18.5 +4.2 +14.4
  Jan 26, 2023 164   Portland W 79-60 77%     14 - 7 5 - 3 +16.8 +6.2 +11.6
  Jan 28, 2023 186   Pepperdine W 80-71 81%    
  Feb 02, 2023 81   @ BYU L 68-72 35%    
  Feb 04, 2023 204   San Diego W 81-71 83%    
  Feb 09, 2023 10   St. Mary's L 60-67 26%    
  Feb 11, 2023 84   @ Santa Clara L 72-75 37%    
  Feb 16, 2023 14   Gonzaga L 74-81 27%    
  Feb 18, 2023 217   Pacific W 79-69 85%    
  Feb 25, 2023 186   @ Pepperdine W 77-73 63%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 9 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.6 2.5 0.3 6.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 11.9 20.7 11.4 1.6 46.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 9.0 15.0 5.1 0.3 30.0 4th
5th 0.0 3.1 6.8 2.0 0.0 12.0 5th
6th 0.4 2.3 0.7 0.0 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 1.1 6.4 17.8 28.9 26.4 14.4 4.4 0.6 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 44.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1
12-4 4.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.6% 74.6% 4.9% 69.7% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 73.3%
12-4 4.4% 28.5% 6.8% 21.7% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.1 3.1 23.3%
11-5 14.4% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 11.2 0.1 1.0 0.4 12.9 5.3%
10-6 26.4% 5.0% 4.0% 1.0% 11.6 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 25.1 1.1%
9-7 28.9% 3.4% 3.3% 0.1% 12.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 27.9 0.1%
8-8 17.8% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 17.3 0.0%
7-9 6.4% 1.4% 1.4% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3
6-10 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 14.0 0.0 1.1
5-11 0.1% 0.1
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.0% 3.7% 2.4% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.6 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 94.0 2.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 74.6% 9.0 1.1 9.2 12.3 27.1 13.7 11.3
Lose Out 0.1%