Loyola Marymount
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.6 149
Expected Predictive Rating +0.0 161
Pace 68.6 182
Improvement -3.1 308

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #218 C+ C- D+ D D+
Defense C+ #101 B+ C C- C B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 313 62% 90 -1.9 252
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 112 38% 172 +1.2 110
Three Pointers 43% 137 35% 124 +1.8 112
1st FG Attempt 1.04 135 +1.1 135
Second Chance 27.8% 258 1.03 167 0.29 237
Turnovers 18.3% 273
Freethrows 0.27 298 67% 323 0.18 328
Total Offense -1.9 218

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 194 50% 18 +3.4 73
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 33 37% 135 -2.0 328
Three Pointers 35% 331 32% 86 +4.1 32
1st FG Attempt 0.91 39 +5.5 39
Second Chance 31.5% 222 1.01 148 0.32 196
Turnovers 16.2% 218
Freethrows 0.29 155 75% 308 0.22 178
Total Defense +2.4 101

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.8 289 -0.8 61
Shot Type Accuracy +1.9 107 -4.6 39
Possession Length 17.2 160 17.4 209
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 160 0.13 45
Improvement +1.2 #117 -4.3 #354

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.7 12.8
.500 or above 39.9% 65.6% 28.5%
.500 or above in Conference 4.5% 14.5% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.2% 1.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pacific (Away) - 30.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 22 - 42 - 7
Quad 35 - 57 - 12
Quad 48 - 415 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 228 Eastern Washington W 70 - 62 75% +1  55% 1 - 0 C +1 F -11 F B+ D+ A +13 B+ A+ C
 Sat, Nov 8 312 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 94 - 72 88% +9  89% 2 - 0 B +10 A +11 A+ F A+ C -1 C- C- C
 Tue, Nov 11 249 @UTEP W 71 - 58 59% +3  63% 3 - 0 B +11 B- +5 A A+ F A- +8 B+ A- F+
 Fri, Nov 14 126 Troy W 74 - 63 55% +3  78% 4 - 0 B +10 C- -2 A- F B- A +12 B+ B+ A+
 Mon, Nov 17 134 @UC Santa Barbara W 78 - 74 OT 34% -3  27% 5 - 0 B +9 D+ -2 C D D+ A +11 A+ C- F
 Mon, Nov 24 109 Florida Atlantic L 65 - 76 38% -7  2% 5 - 1 D+ -7 D+ -3 C- D- B- D+ -5 D C+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 200 Ohio W 70 - 58 62% +4  51% 6 - 1 B +9 F+ -9 D- C- F A+ +18 A+ B A+
 Fri, Nov 28 213 Stony Brook L 68 - 71 73% -6  26% 6 - 2 D -9 D- -8 D+ B F C -1 C+ C- D-
 Tue, Dec 2 24 Saint Louis L 70 - 91 12% -12  3% 6 - 3 D+ -7 D -5 C+ C D C -0 B+ F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 139 UC San Diego L 57 - 67 59% -3  25% 6 - 4 D- -12 F -18 C F F B+ +7 B- D+ A+
 Fri, Dec 19 341 North Alabama W 91 - 57 91% +22  99% 7 - 4 A +19 A- +9 B+ A+ B- A +11 A+ A F
 Tue, Dec 23 352 Morgan St. W 83 - 56 94% +16  99% 8 - 4 B +10 C- -1 B+ C- F+ A +12 A+ F A
 Sun, Dec 28 40 St. Mary's L 73 - 78 19% -1  24% 8 - 5 0 - 1 B- +5 A+ +16 A A+ A F -12 D+ F F
 Tue, Dec 30 115 Pacific W 80 - 71 52% -1  34% 9 - 5 1 - 1 B +9 B- +5 A F+ B- B- +4 A+ C- D+
 Fri, Jan 2 124 @Washington St. L 76 - 78 32% +1  49% 9 - 6 1 - 2 C+ +3 C +1 C- D+ B+ B- +3 D A+ C-
 Sun, Jan 4 14 @Gonzaga L 47 - 82 4% -15  19% 9 - 7 1 - 3 D- -13 F -17 F D B- B- +4 C+ B- D
 Thu, Jan 8 106 San Francisco W 84 - 82 2OT 47% +1  45% 10 - 7 2 - 3 C+ +3 C- -2 C+ D B+ B +5 A+ D+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 44 @Santa Clara L 72 - 103 9% -17  0% 10 - 8 2 - 4 F+ -16 D+ -4 D C+ C+ F+ -10 C+ F+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 178 @Oregon St. L 70 - 76 45% -1  39% 10 - 9 2 - 5 C- -4 D -5 F A F C+ +1 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 17 195 Portland L 58 - 71 71% -11  5% 10 - 10 2 - 6 F -18 F -19 F D+ F C +0 C+ A- D
 Wed, Jan 21 133 @Seattle L 59 - 69 34% -12  7% 10 - 11 2 - 7 D+ -5 D- -7 A- F F C+ +1 A- D+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 178 Oregon St. L 69 - 72 68% -0  42% 10 - 12 2 - 8 D+ -7 D -4 B- D+ C+ C- -3 F+ F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 44 Santa Clara L 73 - 104 21% -17  0% 10 - 13 2 - 9 F -22 D- -6 C- D+ F F -13 D+ F C-
 Wed, Feb 4 106 @San Francisco W 84 - 75 26% +9  99% 11 - 13 3 - 9 A- +16 A +13 A D+ D+ B- +4 A+ A- F+
 Sat, Feb 7 223 San Diego W 83 - 63 75% +17  99% 12 - 13 4 - 9 B+ +14 A +12 A D A+ B- +3 B+ B- F
 Wed, Feb 11 115 @Pacific L 67 - 72 31%
 Sat, Feb 14 291 @Pepperdine W 73 - 68 68%
 Sat, Feb 21 223 @San Diego W 76 - 75 54%
 Wed, Feb 25 124 Washington St. W 76 - 75 54%
 Sat, Feb 28 133 Seattle W 67 - 65 57%
Totals 15 - 15 7 - 11 +1 C- -2 C+ C- D+ C+ +2 B+ C C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B- C C+ C+ 33% 24% 43% D+ C+ D+ C C- D+ D D- D C+ A- C+ B- B+ 38% 27% 35% B B+ C- C+ C C- C+ D C
1.06 62% 38% 35% +2 -1 1.04 28% 1.0 .29 18% .27 67% .18 1.05 50% 37% 32% -5 -1 0.91 31% 1.0 .32 16% .29 75% .20
Nov
5		 Eastern Washington F D C+ F+ F 36% 19% 45% D F D- A+ B+ D+ B F D+ A C- B- A+ B+ 40% 36% 23% A B+ A+ A+ A+ C F A- F
0.99 53% 44% 29% -4 0 0.94 26% 1.8 .47 18% .37 62% .23 0.88 58% 35% 27% -3 -2 0.91 18% 0.5 .09 18% .44 68% .30
Nov
8		 Arkansas Pine Bluff A A+ F A+ A+ 23% 11% 66% D+ A+ D F F A+ B+ F D C D C B C- 40% 30% 30% B- C- F A- C- C A+ F B
1.33 83% 0% 49% +16 0 1.34 31% 0.9 .28 8% .43 57% .25 1.02 62% 38% 31% 0 -1 1.00 33% 0.8 .28 18% .19 100% .19
Nov
11		 UTEP B- A D- A+ A+ 30% 20% 50% C- A C+ A+ A+ F F A- F A- A+ B+ F B 22% 43% 35% A+ B+ B A A- F+ B+ F+ B-
1.13 69% 33% 45% +11 -1 1.23 36% 1.4 .52 30% .11 80% .09 0.92 27% 27% 44% -6 -4 0.82 23% 0.8 .18 13% .22 75% .16
Nov
14		 Troy C- A- A+ B- A 33% 33% 35% F+ A- F C- F B- F F F A A+ F C+ A- 40% 10% 50% C B+ B- B B+ A+ F F+ F
1.07 67% 56% 37% +10 -2 1.18 19% 1.0 .19 16% .19 45% .09 0.91 41% 50% 33% -6 +2 0.93 30% 0.9 .27 29% .41 80% .32
Nov
17		 UC Santa Barbara D+ F D+ A+ C 37% 21% 42% C- C B- F D D+ A+ F C A B A+ A+ A+ 39% 24% 37% B A+ A- F C- F B+ A- A-
1.06 47% 36% 45% +3 0 1.08 31% 0.7 .21 19% .48 52% .25 1.00 54% 27% 26% -9 0 0.84 27% 1.3 .33 8% .25 71% .18
Nov
24		 Florida Atlantic D+ D+ F A C- 43% 22% 35% D+ C- C+ F D- B- F B- F+ D+ C- F D- F+ 30% 22% 48% A- D F A+ C+ B- B F C-
1.01 52% 18% 41% -3 0 0.96 29% 0.6 .18 15% .22 75% .16 1.18 60% 55% 38% +7 -1 1.14 45% 0.8 .36 20% .27 86% .23
Nov
25		 Ohio F+ C- A F F+ 38% 19% 42% C D- B- D- C- F C- D+ D+ A+ A+ A B- A+ 37% 20% 43% D+ A+ C A B A+ F A+ F
0.97 55% 50% 23% -6 0 0.90 38% 0.9 .33 22% .30 71% .21 0.81 29% 33% 30% -14 0 0.74 29% 0.8 .22 24% .53 59% .31
Nov
28		 Stony Brook D- B+ F F+ D 38% 13% 50% B D+ A- C+ B F A A A+ C A+ F B C+ 38% 21% 40% C+ C+ B F C- D- F F F
1.00 67% 17% 29% -3 +1 0.98 39% 0.9 .35 22% .38 80% .30 1.04 33% 80% 32% -2 0 0.98 24% 1.1 .27 15% .38 82% .31
Dec
2		 Saint Louis D C A- F C+ 40% 20% 40% B- C+ D+ B+ C D D- D+ D- C D+ F B+ A- 52% 4% 45% D B+ F C- F A+ B+ F+ B-
0.91 55% 45% 23% -7 0 0.89 23% 1.0 .23 18% .27 71% .19 1.18 66% 50% 32% +3 +3 1.14 49% 1.1 .54 23% .25 80% .20
Dec
16		 UC San Diego F D A+ D+ C+ 24% 20% 57% D+ C F+ F F F F F F B+ D A+ A+ B 57% 16% 27% D B- F B+ D+ A+ F+ A+ B-
0.80 50% 50% 31% -2 -1 0.96 21% 0.5 .11 25% .19 40% .08 0.95 64% 25% 23% -3 +2 1.00 37% 0.8 .31 23% .35 47% .16
Dec
19		 North Alabama A- D+ A+ A+ B+ 40% 9% 51% B- B+ C+ A+ A+ B- C F D+ A A+ C- A+ A+ 43% 31% 25% A A+ C A+ A F F B F+
1.32 55% 60% 43% +7 +2 1.20 38% 1.6 .59 13% .28 65% .18 0.83 32% 38% 23% -16 -1 0.69 30% 0.7 .21 12% .41 64% .26
Dec
23		 Morgan St. C- B- A+ B+ B+ 44% 9% 47% C+ B+ C+ D- C- F+ B F D+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ 32% 49% 19% A+ A+ F D+ F A C- A+ B-
1.19 65% 75% 38% +9 +2 1.24 38% 1.1 .41 19% .49 61% .30 0.80 33% 22% 22% -19 -4 0.55 43% 1.0 .41 24% .36 63% .23
Dec
28		 St. Mary's A+ D- A+ A A+ 28% 34% 38% F+ A A- A+ A+ A B- F C F B- C- F D 40% 29% 31% A- D+ C- F F F D+ A+ B
1.23 46% 56% 39% +6 -3 1.09 32% 1.4 .46 10% .26 64% .17 1.31 56% 38% 50% +7 -1 1.13 38% 1.5 .55 10% .36 68% .24
Dec
30		 Pacific B- D- A+ A+ A+ 20% 33% 47% F+ A D F F+ B- B C B B- A+ C+ F A+ 52% 22% 26% D A+ D- B- C- D+ F C- F
1.15 50% 59% 42% +11 -3 1.18 21% 0.7 .14 14% .39 70% .27 1.02 29% 40% 42% -12 +1 0.80 39% 0.9 .37 19% .46 77% .35
Jan
2		 Washington St. C D- C C+ D+ 44% 19% 37% B C- F+ A- D+ B+ B- D C+ B- C+ F F D- 35% 25% 39% B+ D A+ A+ A+ C- A- F C+
1.09 50% 40% 35% -3 +1 0.98 19% 1.3 .24 11% .32 70% .23 1.12 61% 54% 45% +12 -1 1.24 19% 0.6 .11 17% .22 92% .21
Jan
4		 Gonzaga F C+ F D F+ 13% 52% 36% F F C- F D B- F F F B- F D A C 31% 38% 31% A+ C+ B+ D+ B- D A+ A+ A+
0.68 57% 21% 30% -11 -6 0.68 22% 0.6 .13 19% .12 43% .05 1.19 83% 45% 28% +8 -3 1.12 32% 1.3 .41 12% .16 40% .07
Jan
8		 San Francisco C- D+ B- C C 47% 22% 31% B- C+ F A+ D B+ F A+ F B A A+ A- A+ 37% 23% 40% B A+ C D+ D+ C+ D F F+
1.05 53% 40% 33% -2 0 0.99 15% 1.3 .21 10% .12 100% .12 1.02 45% 21% 29% -11 0 0.78 33% 1.2 .40 16% .37 80% .30
Jan
10		 Santa Clara D+ A F F D+ 31% 28% 41% F D F+ A+ C+ C+ C- F D F+ A F F C+ 37% 19% 43% B- C+ D D- F+ F D- D F+
0.94 71% 27% 23% -6 -1 0.87 22% 1.5 .33 21% .33 65% .21 1.34 48% 54% 41% +4 0 1.10 42% 1.2 .51 9% .30 76% .23
Jan
14		 Oregon St. D B- F F F 39% 28% 33% F+ F C A+ A F A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ D A+ A+ 36% 19% 45% C A+ F+ F F F F F F
1.00 61% 8% 27% -11 -1 0.78 32% 1.5 .47 21% .45 96% .43 1.08 35% 44% 24% -14 0 0.74 31% 1.5 .46 13% .51 94% .47
Jan
17		 Portland F D- F F F 21% 31% 48% F F F+ B+ D+ F B- B+ B C A B F C 38% 30% 32% A C+ B A- A- D D- D+ D-
0.83 50% 13% 26% -15 -3 0.67 24% 1.2 .29 22% .33 78% .26 1.02 47% 33% 44% -1 -1 0.98 26% 1.0 .26 17% .35 75% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
21		 Seattle D- A+ D- B- A 36% 20% 44% C A- F F F F B- F C- C+ D+ A A+ A 44% 22% 33% C+ A- B F D+ F C+ F D+
0.86 69% 33% 35% +4 0 1.09 18% 0.0 .00 29% .33 63% .20 1.00 63% 25% 22% -7 0 0.89 22% 1.1 .24 10% .27 82% .23
Jan
28		 Oregon St. D A A+ D- A- 25% 35% 40% F B- F+ B+ D+ C+ F F F C- C+ F D- F 33% 27% 40% A- F+ F+ C F+ A+ A C- A
1.05 69% 50% 29% +4 -3 1.04 24% 1.1 .26 14% .19 64% .12 1.09 53% 58% 39% +7 -1 1.13 32% 1.2 .39 24% .28 79% .22
Jan
31		 Santa Clara D- A- A- F C- 45% 21% 33% C C- D C D+ F A+ B+ A+ F C D F D 36% 14% 50% C- D+ F D+ F C- F F F
0.94 68% 44% 14% -4 0 0.95 26% 1.0 .26 28% .63 77% .49 1.34 62% 50% 41% +9 +1 1.21 46% 1.2 .54 15% .34 82% .27
Feb
4		 San Francisco A B+ D- A+ A+ 38% 25% 37% C- A B- F D+ D+ A B A B- B A+ B A+ 34% 23% 43% B A+ B+ B A- F+ F F F
1.22 65% 31% 47% +8 -1 1.17 29% 0.8 .24 15% .36 76% .27 1.09 53% 0% 32% -12 -1 0.77 28% 1.0 .28 12% .69 88% .61
Feb
7		 San Diego A A+ A+ F A 39% 22% 39% D+ A C F+ D A+ B- B+ B+ B- A- F A B 27% 37% 35% A+ B+ A- D- B- F B C+ B
1.32 79% 73% 26% +12 0 1.24 36% 0.9 .32 11% .37 76% .29 1.00 50% 47% 28% -2 -3 0.92 24% 1.1 .26 13% .20 73% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 1.3 3.3 4.6 4th
5th 0.1 7.2 1.1 8.4 5th
6th 1.8 7.7 0.1 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 8.9 2.3 11.2 7th
8th 1.0 13.4 0.2 14.6 8th
9th 0.1 8.8 6.8 15.7 9th
10th 3.9 15.8 0.8 20.5 10th
11th 2.6 9.7 3.0 15.3 11th
12th 0.2 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 2.8 13.7 28.6 31.7 18.7 4.5 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 4.5
8-10 18.7% 0.2% 0.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 18.7
7-11 31.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 31.7
6-12 28.6% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 28.6
5-13 13.7% 13.7
4-14 2.8% 2.8
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 12.7 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%
Lose Out 2.8%