San Diego
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.3 #222
Expected Predictive Rating -6.3 #264
Pace 74.8 #50
Improvement +3.4 #39

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #226 C C C- D+ C
Defense #208 C F A- D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #308 1.20 #129 -2.3 #262
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #213 0.71 #235 -1.2 #235
Three Pointers 48% #51 1.01 #185 +3.6 #67
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #175 +0.1 #175
Freethrows 15.0 #296 74% #152 11.1 #279
Second Chance 28.4% #244 1.10 #112 0.31 #180
Turnovers 17.5% #236
Total Offense -2.0 #226

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #155 1.24 #282 -2.3 #266
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #279 0.79 #246 +0.9 #130
Three Pointers 43% #121 0.92 #72 +0.9 #146
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #197 -0.6 #196
Freethrows 20.1 #306 71% #111 14.2 #75
Second Chance 36.6% #344 1.12 #275 0.41 #342
Turnovers 19.7% #39
Total Defense -1.3 #208

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.2% #212 1.0% #264
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.4% #168 0.1% #188
Possession Length 17.4 #174 16.5 #61
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #86 0.26 #357
Improvement +0.4 #159 +3.0 #33

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.6% 2.0% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 12.0% 16.0% 11.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.6% 7.3% 10.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Away) - 15.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 50 - 9
Quad 33 - 74 - 16
Quad 46 - 410 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 196 Idaho St. L 68 - 71 57% -7  0 - 1 -8 -3 C D- C- -5 B D+ D-
 Wed, Nov 12 194 Idaho W 78 - 74 57% +5  1 - 1 -1 +4 A+ B- F -5 C- D+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 269 Grambling St. W 78 - 68 71% +7  2 - 1 +1 -2 F F C- +3 A+ F C
 Fri, Nov 21 287 UC Riverside L 71 - 85 75% -10  2 - 2 -24 -4 F B- F -20 F F D-
 Tue, Nov 25 157 California Baptist L 61 - 76 37% -2  2 - 3 -15 -11 C- F D -3 C F A+
 Sun, Nov 30 264 @Long Beach St. L 72 - 76 48% +1  2 - 4 -7 +6 C+ A+ F -13 D- F F
 Fri, Dec 5 227 @San Jose St. L 69 - 86 40% -18  2 - 5 -18 -8 F C A+ -9 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 9 47 USC L 81 - 94 14% -5  2 - 6 -5 +3 D+ B+ C -6 F D A+
 Sat, Dec 13 296 Northern Arizona W 78 - 69 76% +6  3 - 6 -2 +4 B- A+ F -5 F F A+
 Fri, Dec 19 109 @UC San Diego L 71 - 81 16% +7 
 Mon, Dec 22 46 @Washington L 56 - 86 6% -16  3 - 7 -16 -14 D+ F F -1 A F B-
 Sun, Dec 28 144 Pacific W 66 - 54 45% +9  4 - 7 1 - 0 +10 -2 F A- A- +13 A+ A A+
 Tue, Dec 30 10 Gonzaga L 93 - 99 4% -10  4 - 8 1 - 1 +11 +16 A+ C+ A+ -4 B- F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 103 @San Francisco L 64 - 74 15% -4  4 - 9 1 - 2 -2 -6 C+ F C- +4 A+ D C
 Sun, Jan 4 55 @Santa Clara L 70 - 98 7% -12  4 - 10 1 - 3 -15 -2 B+ F C- -11 D+ F A-
 Thu, Jan 8 286 Pepperdine W 83 - 63 74% +12  5 - 10 2 - 3 +10 +11 A+ C+ C+ -0 C- B A
 Sat, Jan 10 144 @Pacific L 70 - 77 24% +6  5 - 11 2 - 4 -3 -1 C D+ D+ -2 A+ C F
 Thu, Jan 15 121 @Seattle L 68 - 77 21%
 Wed, Jan 21 136 Washington St. L 76 - 78 44%
 Sat, Jan 24 55 Santa Clara L 75 - 85 17%
 Wed, Jan 28 286 @Pepperdine W 74 - 73 53%
 Sat, Jan 31 189 Oregon St. W 74 - 73 55%
 Wed, Feb 4 42 @St. Mary's L 65 - 84 4%
 Sat, Feb 7 130 @Loyola Marymount L 70 - 78 23%
 Wed, Feb 11 233 Portland W 80 - 76 64%
 Sun, Feb 15 103 San Francisco L 71 - 76 31%
 Sat, Feb 21 130 Loyola Marymount L 73 - 75 43%
 Wed, Feb 25 189 @Oregon St. L 71 - 76 34%
 Sat, Feb 28 233 @Portland L 77 - 79 41%
Totals 9 - 20 6 - 12 -3 -2 C C C- -1 C F A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 2.0 0.7 0.1 4.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 3.4 1.0 0.1 5.9 5th
6th 1.1 5.2 2.5 0.1 8.9 6th
7th 0.3 5.7 5.1 0.4 11.6 7th
8th 0.2 4.4 8.6 1.3 0.0 14.5 8th
9th 0.1 2.9 10.3 3.3 0.1 16.7 9th
10th 0.0 1.8 9.6 5.5 0.3 17.2 10th
11th 0.3 2.6 8.0 5.5 0.5 16.8 11th
12th 0.6 1.9 1.3 0.1 3.9 12th
Total 0.9 4.4 11.1 18.2 21.2 19.0 13.2 7.5 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.2
11-7 1.0% 1.0
10-8 3.2% 3.2
9-9 7.5% 7.5
8-10 13.2% 13.2
7-11 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 19.0
6-12 21.2% 21.2
5-13 18.2% 18.2
4-14 11.1% 11.1
3-15 4.4% 4.4
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%