San Diego
West Coast
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#216
Expected Predictive Rating-2.9#225
Pace71.2#99
Improvement-0.3#219

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#75
First Shot+3.7#71
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#184
Layup/Dunks-0.7#214
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#77
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#178
Freethrows+2.4#35
Improvement+0.1#169

Defense
Total Defense-5.9#331
First Shot-6.6#353
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#105
Layups/Dunks-2.7#286
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#213
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#306
Freethrows-0.3#214
Improvement-0.4#249
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.8% 0.9% 0.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.1% 9.8% 10.9%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Home) - 72.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 21 - 42 - 8
Quad 33 - 65 - 14
Quad 44 - 49 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 171   Florida Gulf Coast W 79-73 52%     1 - 0 +3.3 +2.2 +0.9
  Nov 13, 2022 320   NJIT W 74-64 81%     2 - 0 -1.7 +3.5 -4.3
  Nov 17, 2022 47   Utah St. L 89-91 OT 18%     2 - 1 +5.3 +8.5 -3.1
  Nov 25, 2022 184   New Mexico St. L 77-90 44%     2 - 2 -13.7 -0.9 -12.1
  Nov 26, 2022 250   Nicholls St. L 70-72 59%     2 - 3 -6.7 -2.0 -4.8
  Nov 28, 2022 181   Longwood W 71-68 54%     3 - 3 -0.2 -2.0 +1.8
  Dec 03, 2022 76   UNLV L 78-95 27%     3 - 4 -12.8 +3.3 -14.9
  Dec 10, 2022 156   California Baptist L 73-76 50%     3 - 5 -5.2 +2.7 -8.0
  Dec 12, 2022 262   UC San Diego W 77-71 72%    
  Dec 18, 2022 66   @ Arizona St. L 67-91 11%     3 - 6 -12.9 +0.7 -13.3
  Dec 20, 2022 158   @ UC Riverside W 92-84 OT 30%     4 - 6 +11.1 +15.1 -4.4
  Dec 22, 2022 328   @ Cal St. Northridge L 78-83 67%     4 - 7 -11.8 -1.6 -9.8
  Dec 29, 2022 12   @ St. Mary's L 58-85 4%     4 - 8 0 - 1 -9.3 -0.2 -10.5
  Dec 31, 2022 88   @ San Francisco W 80-68 16%     5 - 8 1 - 1 +20.4 +10.4 +9.9
  Jan 05, 2023 208   Pacific L 82-84 59%     5 - 9 1 - 2 -6.5 -0.3 -6.1
  Jan 07, 2023 81   BYU L 48-68 28%     5 - 10 1 - 3 -16.2 -17.6 +0.5
  Jan 12, 2023 190   Pepperdine W 92-89 56%     6 - 10 2 - 3 -0.9 +7.3 -8.5
  Jan 14, 2023 91   @ Loyola Marymount L 84-98 16%     6 - 11 2 - 4 -5.8 +13.4 -18.9
  Jan 19, 2023 166   @ Portland L 83-88 31%     6 - 12 2 - 5 -2.1 +11.2 -13.5
  Jan 26, 2023 190   @ Pepperdine W 87-78 35%     7 - 12 3 - 5 +10.6 +5.8 +3.8
  Jan 28, 2023 88   San Francisco L 81-94 31%     7 - 13 3 - 6 -10.1 +6.6 -16.3
  Feb 02, 2023 166   Portland W 82-81 52%    
  Feb 04, 2023 91   @ Loyola Marymount L 71-81 16%    
  Feb 09, 2023 93   @ Santa Clara L 76-86 16%    
  Feb 11, 2023 208   @ Pacific L 80-83 37%    
  Feb 16, 2023 12   St. Mary's L 61-76 9%    
  Feb 23, 2023 13   @ Gonzaga L 74-94 3%    
  Feb 25, 2023 93   Santa Clara L 79-84 34%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 5 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 1.9 5th
6th 0.0 2.3 2.2 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.0 2.4 8.2 0.6 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 5.1 18.1 5.0 0.0 28.2 8th
9th 12.3 26.9 11.1 0.3 50.5 9th
10th 1.9 0.8 0.0 2.7 10th
Total 14.1 32.8 31.7 15.9 4.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0% 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.1
8-8 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
7-9 4.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.5
6-10 15.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 15.9
5-11 31.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 31.6
4-12 32.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 32.8
3-13 14.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.1
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.5% 0.2% 16.0 0.2