Gonzaga
West Coast
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+21.5#1
Expected Predictive Rating+20.0#7
Pace79.2#22
Improvement-2.4#332

Offense
Total Offense+13.9#2
First Shot+12.6#1
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#99
Layup/Dunks+13.9#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#250
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#211
Freethrows+1.2#100
Improvement-2.7#349

Defense
Total Defense+7.7#18
First Shot+7.1#18
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#138
Layups/Dunks+1.3#144
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#178
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#107
Freethrows+3.8#6
Improvement+0.3#144
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 9.9% 11.3% 6.2%
#1 Seed 42.1% 47.1% 29.6%
Top 2 Seed 69.6% 75.1% 55.4%
Top 4 Seed 90.5% 93.7% 82.1%
Top 6 Seed 96.6% 98.0% 92.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% 100.0% 99.3%
Average Seed 2.3 2.0 2.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 83.2% 85.3% 77.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Second Round95.0% 96.1% 92.1%
Sweet Sixteen75.9% 77.8% 70.9%
Elite Eight54.4% 56.5% 49.3%
Final Four37.2% 39.6% 30.9%
Championship Game24.7% 26.8% 19.2%
National Champion16.1% 17.5% 12.3%

Next Game: Alabama (Neutral) - 71.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 24 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 17 - 3
Quad 24 - 012 - 3
Quad 36 - 018 - 3
Quad 412 - 029 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 306   Dixie St. W 97-63 99%     1 - 0 +22.9 +5.1 +13.5
  Nov 13, 2021 11   Texas W 86-74 80%     2 - 0 +24.8 +26.0 -0.3
  Nov 15, 2021 315   Alcorn St. W 84-57 99%     3 - 0 +15.2 +5.5 +9.1
  Nov 19, 2021 177   Bellarmine W 92-50 98%     4 - 0 +38.1 +17.5 +21.6
  Nov 22, 2021 304   Central Michigan W 107-54 99%     5 - 0 +45.0 +17.2 +22.4
  Nov 23, 2021 8   UCLA W 83-63 65%     6 - 0 +37.5 +16.6 +20.7
  Nov 26, 2021 5   Duke L 81-84 65%     6 - 1 +14.6 +7.3 +7.7
  Nov 29, 2021 155   Tarleton St. W 64-55 98%     7 - 1 +6.7 -2.6 +10.0
  Dec 04, 2021 13   Alabama W 89-83 72%    
  Dec 09, 2021 232   Merrimack W 82-54 99%    
  Dec 12, 2021 145   Washington W 91-68 98%    
  Dec 18, 2021 17   Texas Tech W 80-73 74%    
  Dec 20, 2021 317   Northern Arizona W 95-62 99.9%   
  Dec 28, 2021 308   North Alabama W 96-63 99.9%   
  Dec 30, 2021 153   @ San Diego W 86-68 95%    
  Jan 01, 2022 130   @ Loyola Marymount W 87-71 93%    
  Jan 06, 2022 49   San Francisco W 85-70 92%    
  Jan 08, 2022 235   Pepperdine W 94-66 99%    
  Jan 13, 2022 20   BYU W 84-74 82%    
  Jan 15, 2022 82   @ Santa Clara W 89-77 86%    
  Jan 20, 2022 187   @ Pacific W 85-65 96%    
  Jan 27, 2022 130   Loyola Marymount W 90-68 98%    
  Jan 29, 2022 251   Portland W 95-66 99.5%   
  Feb 03, 2022 235   @ Pepperdine W 91-69 98%    
  Feb 05, 2022 20   @ BYU W 81-77 64%    
  Feb 10, 2022 187   Pacific W 88-62 99%    
  Feb 12, 2022 41   St. Mary's W 77-63 89%    
  Feb 19, 2022 82   Santa Clara W 92-74 94%    
  Feb 24, 2022 49   @ San Francisco W 82-73 80%    
  Feb 26, 2022 41   @ St. Mary's W 74-66 76%    
Projected Record 27 - 3 14 - 2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 7.1 20.7 31.0 22.9 83.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 3.4 6.2 3.0 13.2 2nd
3rd 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.2 2.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.8 5.8 13.5 23.7 31.0 22.9 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 22.9    22.9
15-1 100.0% 31.0    29.3 1.7
14-2 87.5% 20.7    15.0 5.6 0.1
13-3 52.6% 7.1    2.9 3.5 0.7 0.0
12-4 23.0% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.0
11-5 3.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 83.2% 83.2 70.4 11.4 1.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 22.9% 100.0% 78.7% 21.3% 1.3 16.9 5.6 0.4 100.0%
15-1 31.0% 100.0% 71.5% 28.5% 1.6 17.4 10.6 2.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-2 23.7% 100.0% 65.0% 35.0% 2.2 6.8 8.5 5.4 2.5 0.4 0.1 100.0%
13-3 13.5% 100.0% 55.8% 44.2% 3.4 0.9 2.6 3.8 3.7 1.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-4 5.8% 99.6% 45.0% 54.5% 5.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.2%
11-5 1.8% 99.8% 31.7% 68.1% 6.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
10-6 1.0% 98.1% 35.8% 62.3% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 97.0%
9-7 0.2% 98.9% 24.1% 74.7% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.5%
8-8 0.1% 66.7% 33.3% 33.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0%
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 99.9% 66.8% 33.2% 2.3 42.1 27.5 12.9 8.0 4.0 2.1 1.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 11.4% 100.0% 1.2 80.5 19.1 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5% 100.0% 1.4 65.6 29.1 5.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 100.0% 1.3 69.8 27.5 2.7