Gonzaga
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+19.6#7
Expected Predictive Rating+24.3#5
Pace74.3#72
Improvement-1.4#289

Offense
Total Offense+10.2#12
First Shot+7.7#22
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#49
Layup/Dunks+9.0#3
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#135
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#257
Freethrows+0.0#173
Improvement+1.2#70

Defense
Total Defense+9.4#7
First Shot+7.5#13
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#66
Layups/Dunks+6.6#19
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#223
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#162
Freethrows+0.7#140
Improvement-2.6#350
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.7% 2.5% 0.6%
#1 Seed 12.3% 16.4% 6.8%
Top 2 Seed 28.1% 36.1% 17.2%
Top 4 Seed 60.7% 70.0% 48.2%
Top 6 Seed 82.8% 89.4% 73.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.1% 99.6% 98.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.2% 98.5% 95.5%
Average Seed 4.1 3.6 4.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 85.3% 87.3% 82.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.3% 1.3%
First Round98.8% 99.5% 98.0%
Second Round86.8% 90.1% 82.4%
Sweet Sixteen56.1% 61.5% 48.8%
Elite Eight30.6% 34.8% 25.1%
Final Four16.0% 18.5% 12.6%
Championship Game8.0% 9.6% 5.8%
National Champion3.8% 4.6% 2.6%

Next Game: Kentucky (Neutral) - 57.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 22 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 15 - 3
Quad 27 - 112 - 3
Quad 38 - 020 - 4
Quad 49 - 029 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 300 Texas Southern W 98-43 99%     1 - 0 +44.3 +16.7 +25.7
  Sat, Nov 8 52 Oklahoma W 83-68 88%     2 - 0 +22.1 +5.7 +15.6
  Tue, Nov 11 50 Creighton W 90-63 86%     3 - 0 +35.1 +16.8 +17.2
  Fri, Nov 14 81 @Arizona St. W 77-65 82%     4 - 0 +21.9 +7.4 +14.6
  Mon, Nov 17 327 Southern Utah W 122-50 99%     5 - 0 +59.8 +26.4 +23.0
  Mon, Nov 24 9 Alabama W 95-85 53%     6 - 0 +28.9 +20.1 +8.0
  Tue, Nov 25 95 Maryland W 100-61 90%     7 - 0 +44.6 +30.5 +14.1
  Wed, Nov 26 1 Michigan L 61-101 27%     7 - 1 -14.2 -5.6 -3.3
  Fri, Dec 5 16 Kentucky W 81-79 57%    
  Sun, Dec 7 340 North Florida W 101-67 99.9%   
  Sat, Dec 13 30 UCLA W 75-69 72%    
  Wed, Dec 17 224 Campbell W 91-65 99%    
  Sun, Dec 21 78 Oregon W 82-70 87%    
  Sun, Dec 28 259 @Pepperdine W 87-65 98%    
  Tue, Dec 30 245 @San Diego W 91-70 97%    
  Fri, Jan 2 108 Seattle W 82-64 95%    
  Sun, Jan 4 128 Loyola Marymount W 83-63 97%    
  Thu, Jan 8 53 Santa Clara W 85-72 87%    
  Thu, Jan 15 159 @Washington St. W 90-73 94%    
  Sat, Jan 17 108 @Seattle W 79-67 87%    
  Wed, Jan 21 259 Pepperdine W 90-62 99%    
  Sat, Jan 24 89 San Francisco W 85-68 93%    
  Sat, Jan 31 45 St. Mary's W 78-67 84%    
  Wed, Feb 4 274 @Portland W 89-66 98%    
  Sat, Feb 7 172 @Oregon St. W 81-63 94%    
  Tue, Feb 10 159 Washington St. W 93-70 98%    
  Sat, Feb 14 53 @Santa Clara W 82-75 72%    
  Wed, Feb 18 89 @San Francisco W 82-71 83%    
  Sat, Feb 21 144 Pacific W 86-64 97%    
  Wed, Feb 25 274 Portland W 92-63 99%    
  Sat, Feb 28 45 @St. Mary's W 75-70 67%    
Projected Record 28 - 3 16 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.8 8.2 21.4 31.2 22.7 85.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.6 4.6 2.2 11.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.1 2.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.2 6.3 12.9 23.6 31.2 22.7 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 22.7    22.7
17-1 100.0% 31.2    29.8 1.4
16-2 90.7% 21.4    16.6 4.7 0.1
15-3 63.3% 8.2    4.1 3.5 0.6 0.0
14-4 28.3% 1.8    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 5.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 85.3% 85.3 73.8 10.4 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 22.7% 100.0% 79.6% 20.4% 2.0 8.6 8.0 4.0 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 31.2% 99.8% 73.7% 26.1% 3.2 3.5 6.9 8.8 7.2 3.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.3%
16-2 23.6% 99.7% 65.9% 33.8% 4.8 0.2 0.8 3.1 6.2 6.0 4.1 2.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
15-3 12.9% 98.9% 56.9% 42.0% 6.3 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.5 3.1 2.6 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 97.5%
14-4 6.3% 96.7% 51.3% 45.3% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.2 93.1%
13-5 2.2% 91.7% 40.8% 50.9% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2 86.0%
12-6 0.8% 82.0% 30.4% 51.6% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 74.1%
11-7 0.3% 75.0% 28.9% 46.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 64.8%
10-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.1% 68.4% 30.7% 4.1 12.3 15.8 16.2 16.4 12.4 9.7 6.5 4.2 3.2 1.8 0.6 0.9 97.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.6% 100.0% 1.6 54.3 36.5 8.5 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3% 100.0% 2.1 29.6 40.1 24.2 5.9 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 100.0% 2.2 28.5 38.3 23.8 8.3 1.0