Gonzaga
West Coast
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.4#11
Expected Predictive Rating+18.2#14
Pace80.3#9
Improvement-0.2#226

Offense
Total Offense+12.1#4
First Shot+11.9#3
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#165
Layup/Dunks+7.9#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#295
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#35
Freethrows+1.3#98
Improvement+0.1#108

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#50
First Shot+3.9#63
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#81
Layups/Dunks+1.9#109
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#156
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#220
Freethrows+2.2#63
Improvement-0.3#307
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.8% 4.0% 1.1%
#1 Seed 14.8% 19.8% 7.3%
Top 2 Seed 31.3% 40.1% 18.1%
Top 4 Seed 60.5% 70.2% 45.8%
Top 6 Seed 80.8% 88.4% 69.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.0% 99.6% 97.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.7% 99.1% 95.8%
Average Seed 4.1 3.5 5.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 99.7%
Conference Champion 76.8% 79.6% 72.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.2% 1.4%
First Round98.7% 99.6% 97.4%
Second Round81.7% 86.0% 75.4%
Sweet Sixteen51.8% 57.7% 43.0%
Elite Eight28.1% 32.1% 22.2%
Final Four14.5% 17.1% 10.5%
Championship Game7.2% 8.7% 5.0%
National Champion3.4% 4.2% 2.2%

Next Game: Baylor (Neutral) - 59.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 32 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 15 - 4
Quad 26 - 111 - 5
Quad 38 - 019 - 5
Quad 46 - 025 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 245   North Florida W 104-63 98%     1 - 0 +33.8 +12.4 +16.0
  Nov 11, 2022 37   Michigan St. W 64-63 74%     2 - 0 +11.8 -6.0 +17.7
  Nov 16, 2022 4   @ Texas L 74-93 31%     2 - 1 +3.5 +9.1 -4.7
  Nov 20, 2022 17   Kentucky W 88-72 68%     3 - 1 +28.6 +15.2 +12.1
  Nov 24, 2022 192   Portland St. W 102-78 95%     4 - 1 +22.8 +22.2 -0.4
  Nov 25, 2022 3   Purdue L 66-84 41%     4 - 2 +1.7 +3.5 -2.6
  Nov 27, 2022 27   Xavier W 88-84 66%     5 - 2 +17.0 +13.1 +3.7
  Dec 02, 2022 19   Baylor W 88-85 60%    
  Dec 05, 2022 54   Kent St. W 85-74 85%    
  Dec 09, 2022 91   Washington W 87-72 92%    
  Dec 12, 2022 266   Northern Illinois W 93-67 99%    
  Dec 16, 2022 13   Alabama W 84-83 53%    
  Dec 20, 2022 224   Montana W 88-64 99%    
  Dec 31, 2022 134   Pepperdine W 92-74 95%    
  Jan 05, 2023 84   @ San Francisco W 88-80 77%    
  Jan 07, 2023 103   @ Santa Clara W 88-78 81%    
  Jan 12, 2023 87   @ BYU W 87-79 77%    
  Jan 14, 2023 110   Portland W 94-78 93%    
  Jan 19, 2023 132   Loyola Marymount W 90-72 95%    
  Jan 21, 2023 228   @ Pacific W 93-75 95%    
  Jan 28, 2023 110   @ Portland W 91-81 82%    
  Feb 02, 2023 103   Santa Clara W 91-75 92%    
  Feb 04, 2023 32   @ St. Mary's W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 09, 2023 84   San Francisco W 91-77 90%    
  Feb 11, 2023 87   BYU W 90-76 90%    
  Feb 16, 2023 132   @ Loyola Marymount W 87-75 85%    
  Feb 18, 2023 134   @ Pepperdine W 89-77 85%    
  Feb 23, 2023 179   San Diego W 90-69 97%    
  Feb 25, 2023 32   St. Mary's W 75-67 76%    
  Mar 01, 2023 357   Chicago St. W 98-62 100.0%   
Projected Record 25 - 5 14 - 2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 4.8 13.5 22.6 23.0 12.1 76.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.3 6.2 5.0 1.5 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.7 0.6 0.1 4.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.8 5.9 11.7 18.5 24.1 23.0 12.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 12.1    12.1
15-1 100.0% 23.0    22.3 0.7
14-2 93.7% 22.6    18.9 3.7 0.0
13-3 72.7% 13.5    8.6 4.5 0.3
12-4 41.4% 4.8    1.8 2.4 0.6 0.0
11-5 13.0% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 76.8% 76.8 63.7 11.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 12.1% 100.0% 70.5% 29.5% 1.6 6.6 3.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-1 23.0% 100.0% 65.1% 34.9% 2.4 6.4 7.7 4.9 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-2 24.1% 100.0% 56.4% 43.5% 3.6 1.7 4.3 5.9 6.3 3.5 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-3 18.5% 99.8% 52.5% 47.3% 5.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 4.3 4.7 3.4 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
12-4 11.7% 98.9% 43.7% 55.2% 6.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 2.7 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 98.1%
11-5 5.9% 97.7% 39.1% 58.6% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 96.3%
10-6 2.8% 91.7% 31.8% 59.9% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.2 87.8%
9-7 1.3% 80.5% 28.0% 52.5% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.3 72.9%
8-8 0.4% 75.0% 27.8% 47.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 65.4%
7-9 0.1% 45.9% 20.3% 25.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 32.2%
6-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 99.0% 55.6% 43.4% 4.1 14.8 16.5 14.4 14.8 11.6 8.7 6.9 4.6 3.3 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.0 97.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.6% 100.0% 1.3 71.9 25.0 2.7 0.4