Pacific
West Coast
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#187
Expected Predictive Rating-12.5#323
Pace66.0#258
Improvement+0.8#118

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#227
First Shot-3.5#279
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#79
Layup/Dunks-2.7#264
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#56
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#229
Freethrows-1.4#264
Improvement+1.1#71

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#149
First Shot-3.6#278
After Offensive Rebounds+4.1#10
Layups/Dunks-0.8#220
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#317
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#287
Freethrows+2.5#38
Improvement-0.3#217
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 11.5 15.7
.500 or above 13.3% 20.8% 7.7%
.500 or above in Conference 14.1% 18.4% 10.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 20.6% 17.0% 23.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Davis (Away) - 43.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 6
Quad 21 - 31 - 9
Quad 33 - 64 - 15
Quad 47 - 311 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 175   Northern Colorado L 65-67 48%     0 - 1 -2.7 -10.0 +7.4
  Nov 13, 2021 188   @ Hawaii L 61-73 39%     0 - 2 -10.3 -11.5 +1.1
  Nov 19, 2021 162   UTEP L 64-73 56%     0 - 3 -11.7 -7.4 -4.3
  Nov 22, 2021 355   Chicago St. W 74-58 96%     1 - 3 -5.1 -7.2 +2.3
  Nov 26, 2021 357   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 74-50 97%     2 - 3 +1.3 -1.0 +4.8
  Dec 01, 2021 212   @ UC Davis L 69-71 43%    
  Dec 04, 2021 208   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 66-68 42%    
  Dec 11, 2021 280   @ San Jose St. W 68-66 57%    
  Dec 14, 2021 118   UC Santa Barbara L 65-66 44%    
  Dec 17, 2021 182   North Dakota St. W 66-63 60%    
  Dec 19, 2021 212   UC Davis W 72-68 63%    
  Dec 22, 2021 122   @ California L 59-66 26%    
  Dec 30, 2021 82   Santa Clara L 69-74 33%    
  Jan 01, 2022 235   Pepperdine W 71-66 69%    
  Jan 06, 2022 20   @ BYU L 59-78 4%    
  Jan 08, 2022 130   Loyola Marymount L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 13, 2022 82   @ Santa Clara L 66-77 17%    
  Jan 15, 2022 41   @ St. Mary's L 53-68 10%    
  Jan 20, 2022 1   Gonzaga L 65-85 4%    
  Jan 22, 2022 153   San Diego W 66-65 54%    
  Jan 27, 2022 251   @ Portland W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 29, 2022 20   BYU L 62-75 14%    
  Feb 05, 2022 235   @ Pepperdine L 68-69 47%    
  Feb 10, 2022 1   @ Gonzaga L 62-88 1%    
  Feb 12, 2022 153   @ San Diego L 63-68 33%    
  Feb 17, 2022 49   San Francisco L 63-71 27%    
  Feb 24, 2022 251   Portland W 72-65 72%    
  Feb 26, 2022 130   @ Loyola Marymount L 65-72 27%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 5 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.2 1.3 2.1 1.0 0.1 4.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.9 1.3 0.2 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 5.4 6.0 1.5 0.2 14.2 6th
7th 1.8 8.2 7.6 2.1 0.1 19.9 7th
8th 0.0 2.1 8.6 8.0 1.7 0.1 20.5 8th
9th 0.1 2.7 7.9 5.6 1.0 0.0 17.4 9th
10th 0.6 3.5 5.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 12.1 10th
Total 0.6 3.7 7.9 12.6 16.2 18.3 15.3 11.5 7.0 4.0 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 32.3% 0.0    0.0
12-4 19.3% 0.0    0.0
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.1% 32.3% 32.3% 10.0 0.0 0.0 32.3%
12-4 0.1% 0.1
11-5 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.8
10-6 2.1% 2.1
9-7 4.0% 1.1% 1.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9
8-8 7.0% 7.0
7-9 11.5% 11.5
6-10 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.3
5-11 18.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.2
4-12 16.2% 16.2
3-13 12.6% 12.6
2-14 7.9% 7.9
1-15 3.7% 3.7
0-16 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%