Pepperdine
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.0 #284
Expected Predictive Rating -9.2 #312
Pace 67.6 #215
Improvement -1.1 #237

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #320 D+ D D+ C C-
Defense #221 C C- C B F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #259 1.12 #228 -2.4 #263
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #136 0.76 #169 +0.8 #133
Three Pointers 42% #167 0.93 #296 -1.5 #237
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #269 -3.1 #267
Freethrows 0.28 #261 77% #23 0.22 #187
Second Chance 28.7% #238 0.86 #346 0.25 #314
Turnovers 18.8% #297
Total Offense -5.7 #320

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #81 1.16 #180 -2.4 #261
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #360 0.75 #177 +3.0 #6
Three Pointers 45% #71 0.96 #94 -0.7 #215
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #182 +0.0 #182
Freethrows 0.25 #39 74% #255 0.19 #54
Second Chance 32.2% #245 1.06 #226 0.34 #247
Turnovers 16.6% #202
Total Defense -1.3 #221

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #249 2.6% #357
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.2% #270 -2.4% #135
Possession Length 18.1 #258 17.1 #154
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #359 0.15 #120
Improvement +0.3 #158 -1.4 #266

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 87.9% 72.3% 90.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seattle (Away) - 12.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 9
Quad 31 - 101 - 18
Quad 45 - 56 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 35 @UCLA L 63 - 74 2% -10  0 - 1 +6 +6 D A+ C -1 B F+ B-
 Sat, Nov 15 191 Northern Colorado L 81 - 88 OT 43% -5  0 - 2 -12 -8 D F C- -3 C D A+
 Tue, Nov 18 210 New Orleans W 90 - 79 46% +6  1 - 2 +5 +7 B- F A+ -2 C C- B+
 Fri, Nov 21 104 Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 63 21% +3  1 - 3 -1 -7 C- D F +6 A- F B-
 Wed, Nov 26 147 Fresno St. L 53 - 76 23% -7  1 - 4 -22 -15 F C F -7 D F+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 223 @Cal St. Fullerton L 69 - 83 27% -5  1 - 5 -14 -3 F F+ B- -11 C- F D-
 Tue, Dec 2 268 Abilene Christian L 63 - 71 58% -8  1 - 6 -17 -4 D- F A- -14 D- C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 212 Vermont L 56 - 65 46% -1  1 - 7 -15 -14 F+ F F -2 D+ A- B
 Sat, Dec 13 319 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 70 - 62 49% +4  2 - 7 +1 -3 B+ F F+ +5 A- A+ B-
 Thu, Dec 18 255 @Long Beach St. L 78 - 81 33% +2  2 - 8 -5 +4 A A F -9 F C+ F+
 Sat, Dec 20 232 Rice W 84 - 62 50% +8  3 - 8 +15 +5 A C F +9 A+ D+ C+
 Sun, Dec 28 11 Gonzaga L 56 - 96 2% -22  3 - 9 0 - 1 -23 -9 D- B C+ -14 D+ B D+
 Tue, Dec 30 42 St. Mary's L 45 - 72 8% -12  3 - 10 0 - 2 -18 -16 F+ C- F -5 D+ B- C
 Fri, Jan 2 46 @Santa Clara L 63 - 82 3% -7  3 - 11 0 - 3 -4 -7 F+ C F+ +4 C- A+ C
 Sun, Jan 4 123 @Pacific L 69 - 74 13% -3  3 - 12 0 - 4 +0 +2 C D C- -2 D+ F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 198 @San Diego L 63 - 83 24% -12  3 - 13 0 - 5 -20 -7 D F D- -13 F D D+
 Sat, Jan 10 97 San Francisco L 60 - 80 19% -12  3 - 14 0 - 6 -18 -9 F D+ A -10 F+ C+ B-
 Wed, Jan 14 230 Portland W 67 - 63 50% +0  4 - 14 1 - 6 -3 -6 D+ B- D+ +3 B+ A- D+
 Wed, Jan 21 11 @Gonzaga L 60 - 84 1% -15  4 - 15 1 - 7 -1 -1 C- C+ C- -0 A+ F F+
 Sat, Jan 24 122 @Washington St. L 79 - 95 12% -12  4 - 16 1 - 8 -10 +5 A F F -16 F+ F D+
 Wed, Jan 28 198 San Diego L 88 - 92 OT 44% +3  4 - 17 1 - 9 -10 +1 C- D- A+ -10 A- F D-
 Wed, Feb 4 125 @Seattle L 60 - 72 12%
 Sat, Feb 7 123 Pacific L 66 - 72 28%
 Wed, Feb 11 42 @St. Mary's L 57 - 79 2%
 Sat, Feb 14 170 Loyola Marymount L 67 - 70 39%
 Wed, Feb 18 230 @Portland L 69 - 75 29%
 Sat, Feb 21 185 @Oregon St. L 65 - 73 21%
 Wed, Feb 25 125 Seattle L 63 - 69 28%
 Sat, Feb 28 122 Washington St. L 70 - 77 28%
Totals 6 - 23 3 - 15 -7 -6 D+ D D+ -1 C C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.3 7th
8th 0.5 0.1 0.6 8th
9th 0.8 1.1 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.2 2.4 4.3 0.3 0.0 7.2 10th
11th 0.3 4.6 9.4 2.5 0.0 16.8 11th
12th 13.3 28.2 24.7 6.7 0.3 73.2 12th
Total 13.3 28.5 29.4 18.5 7.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11 0.4% 0.4
6-12 2.0% 2.0
5-13 7.9% 7.9
4-14 18.5% 18.5
3-15 29.4% 29.4
2-16 28.5% 28.5
1-17 13.3% 13.3
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 13.3%