San Francisco
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.9 119
Expected Predictive Rating +2.5 122
Pace 64.8 279
Improvement -4.5 337

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 100 C+ B- B- B- C+
Defense C 172 C+ C+ F+ B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 277 C+ 59% 133 -1.3 232
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 304 C- 36% 250 -2.1 277
Three Pointers 48% 38 C+ 35% 126 +4.7 38
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 139 C+ +0.9 132
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.05 130
Second Chance B- 33.0% 104 B- 1.08 95 B- 0.36 87
Turnovers B- 15.5% 102
Freethrows B- 0.34 78 C- 71% 224 B- 0.24 115
Total Offense B- +2.9 100

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 46% 228 C 10.6% 153
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 24% 186 B 3.0% 54
Three Pointers C+ 85% 165 B 0.3% 43
Total C+ 58% 118 B 4.4% 49

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 154 C+ 56% 135 -0.1 173
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 73 C+ 37% 132 +1.0 274
Three Pointers 37% 302 C+ 33% 139 -2.6 71
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 108 C+ -1.3 120
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 124
Second Chance B 26.9% 61 C- 1.07 244 C+ 0.29 106
Turnovers F+ 13.3% 347
Freethrows B- 0.27 75 C- 73% 253 B- 0.20 94
Total Defense C +0.0 172

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 165 C- 9.9% 211
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 165 C- 3.8% 246
Three Pointers B 79% 51 D+ 0.5% 256
Total B- 52% 96 C- 5.0% 221

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.1 259 17.6 239
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 295 0.15 111
Improvement -0.2 #191 -4.3 #344

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.0 13.0
.500 or above 46% 80% 32%
.500 or above in Conference 12% 41% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Santa Clara (Home) - 28.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 6
Quad 23 - 43 - 11
Quad 36 - 39 - 14
Quad 47 - 316 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 103 @Memphis L 70 - 76 31% -9  0% 0 - 1 C+ +2 C- -2 B C+ C B +4 B- F C
 Wed, Nov 12 142 Portland St. W 80 - 70 68% +12  99% 1 - 1 B- +8 B+ +9 A B B C -1 A- D- C-
 Sat, Nov 15 120 Bradley W 75 - 64 62% +2  70% 2 - 1 B +11 C +2 A+ F+ F A +10 A+ B+ C-
 Tue, Nov 18 280 Northwestern St. W 84 - 64 88% +15  95% 3 - 1 B +10 A+ +15 A+ D+ A C- -2 B- C- C-
 Sat, Nov 22 66 Minnesota W 77 - 65 29% +6  98% 4 - 1 A +21 A+ +15 A A B- A- +7 D+ B+ B
 Thu, Nov 27 72 Colorado L 69 - 79 31% -1  39% 4 - 2 C- -2 D+ -3 B- B- D C+ +1 C+ B- D-
 Fri, Nov 28 79 Nevada L 65 - 81 34% -5  32% 4 - 3 D -9 C- -2 D+ A+ F F+ -8 D- A- F
 Wed, Dec 3 340 North Alabama L 63 - 65 94% +4  59% 4 - 4 F+ -17 F -16 F C- C+ C- -2 A- F C+
 Sun, Dec 7 69 Mississippi St. W 65 - 62 31% +5  95% 5 - 4 B +11 C+ +3 D A+ A A +9 A B F
 Sat, Dec 13 23 @Saint Louis L 75 - 85 7% -1  45% 5 - 5 B +9 B+ +9 B B- B+ C+ +0 B A- F+
 Wed, Dec 17 277 Loyola Chicago W 85 - 71 82% +12  97% 6 - 5 B- +7 A+ +20 A+ C A+ F -10 B+ F+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 352 Morgan St. W 94 - 64 96% +13  74% 7 - 5 B+ +13 A +13 D+ A+ C+ C+ +1 D+ C- D+
 Sun, Dec 28 126 @Seattle W 67 - 59 40% +4  85% 8 - 5 1 - 0 B+ +14 C +1 F A+ A+ A+ +13 A+ B F
 Tue, Dec 30 160 @Oregon St. L 62 - 70 50% -3  34% 8 - 6 1 - 1 D+ -5 D -5 F C- C+ C -1 F A+ D+
 Fri, Jan 2 220 San Diego W 74 - 64 81% +4  74% 9 - 6 2 - 1 C+ +4 D- -7 F B A- A +10 B A+ F+
 Sun, Jan 4 219 Portland W 73 - 68 81% -4  31% 10 - 6 3 - 1 C -1 D+ -2 D- C+ B C+ +1 C- A+ A
 Thu, Jan 8 153 @Loyola Marymount L 82 - 84 2OT 49% -1  38% 10 - 7 3 - 2 C +1 C -0 F+ B C C+ +2 B- B+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 276 @Pepperdine W 80 - 60 74% +12  98% 11 - 7 4 - 2 A- +16 B+ +7 A- C+ D A +10 A+ B F
 Tue, Jan 13 41 St. Mary's L 68 - 82 25% -9  8% 11 - 8 4 - 3 C- -4 C+ +2 B+ B B D- -7 D+ C- C-
 Sun, Jan 18 122 Washington St. W 85 - 80 62% +0  54% 12 - 8 5 - 3 C+ +5 A +14 A A+ F+ F+ -9 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 10 @Gonzaga L 66 - 68 4% -8  0% 12 - 9 5 - 4 A +20 B- +4 A B- D+ A+ +16 A+ A D-
 Wed, Jan 28 42 @Santa Clara L 73 - 88 13% -4  30% 12 - 10 5 - 5 C +0 B- +4 A F C+ D+ -4 C- B- F
 Sat, Jan 31 127 Pacific W 87 - 82 63% +4  86% 13 - 10 6 - 5 C+ +4 A+ +15 A A- A F -10 B F F
 Wed, Feb 4 153 Loyola Marymount L 75 - 84 71% -9  0% 13 - 11 6 - 6 D- -12 C +1 F+ D+ A F -13 F+ B F+
 Sat, Feb 7 41 @St. Mary's L 54 - 79 12% -15  2% 13 - 12 6 - 7 D -9 D- -8 F F A+ D+ -4 D+ A- F
 Thu, Feb 12 160 Oregon St. L 63 - 90 72% -17  0% 13 - 13 6 - 8 F -30 D+ -4 F B B- F -30 F F D
 Sun, Feb 15 220 @San Diego W 92 - 79 62% +4  61% 14 - 13 7 - 8 B+ +13 A+ +17 A+ F B+ D+ -4 C F F
 Wed, Feb 18 10 Gonzaga L 59 - 80 11% -10  4% 14 - 14 7 - 9 C- -5 D -6 D- B- B- C+ +0 D+ A+ D-
 Sat, Feb 21 42 Santa Clara L 75 - 81 28%
 Sat, Feb 28 127 @Pacific L 69 - 72 40%
Totals 15 - 15 8 - 10 +3 B- +3 F C+ C+ C +0 C+ C- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- C+ C- C+ C+ 35% 27% 48% C+ C+ B- B- B- B- B- C- B- C C+ C+ C+ C+ 39% 24% 37% C+ C+ B C- C+ F+ B- C- B-
1.13 59% 36% 35% +1 0 1.05 33% 1.1 .36 16% .34 71% .24 1.09 56% 37% 33% -1 0 0.99 27% 1.1 .29 13% .27 73% .25
Nov
8		 Memphis C- A+ F B B+ 23% 17% 60% C B D A C+ C A F B- B B A D C+ 33% 26% 41% B B- D F+ F C F A+ D+
0.94 73% 13% 36% +1 -1 1.02 27% 1.1 .30 20% .42 64% .27 1.03 53% 25% 37% -3 -1 0.93 40% 1.3 .52 19% .43 54% .23
Nov
12		 Portland St. B+ C+ F A+ A- 40% 9% 51% B+ A A D B B A- D+ B C A A+ B- A 44% 15% 41% D+ A- D D D- C- A C A-
1.17 58% 0% 42% +3 +2 1.11 41% 0.9 .35 16% .43 72% .31 1.02 46% 25% 32% -9 +1 0.87 35% 1.1 .37 19% .23 69% .16
Nov
15		 Bradley C C- A+ A+ A+ 43% 17% 40% A A+ A+ F F+ F A+ D+ A+ A A+ F A+ A+ 31% 12% 58% D- A+ B+ B- B+ C- D F F
1.10 56% 57% 53% +14 +1 1.31 45% 0.5 .21 26% .46 70% .32 0.94 38% 50% 23% -14 +1 0.75 21% 1.0 .21 13% .36 86% .31
Nov
18		 Northwestern St. A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 3% 60% A- A+ C D- D+ A A+ C- A+ C- A+ C F B- 35% 30% 35% C+ B- D- B C- C- F B+ F
1.35 67% 100% 46% +15 +2 1.38 35% 1.0 .35 13% .57 71% .41 1.03 33% 38% 40% -5 -1 0.88 29% 1.0 .29 16% .50 69% .35
Nov
22		 Minnesota A+ D- C A+ A 38% 17% 45% B+ A A- A- A B- A+ C+ A+ A- B- A+ F C- 62% 10% 28% F D+ B- B+ B+ B F A+ F+
1.22 50% 38% 48% +6 0 1.15 36% 1.0 .36 17% .36 74% .27 1.03 58% 25% 45% +4 +3 1.15 28% 0.9 .25 19% .59 50% .29
Nov
27		 Colorado D+ F A+ B- B- 34% 19% 47% B- B- B- C B- D D- F F C+ C A F C+ 45% 22% 33% C C+ B- C+ B- D- A+ A+ A+
1.01 39% 70% 36% +1 0 1.04 29% 1.1 .32 19% .23 54% .13 1.15 62% 31% 42% +4 0 1.10 31% 0.9 .28 10% .13 63% .08
Nov
28		 Nevada C- D+ B- F D 35% 18% 48% C+ D+ A+ C+ A+ F A+ A A+ F+ D+ B+ F F+ 48% 31% 21% C- D- C+ A+ A- F A C- A-
1.01 50% 43% 26% -7 0 0.88 40% 1.3 .50 23% .51 80% .41 1.26 60% 31% 55% +5 -1 1.12 33% 0.8 .27 6% .30 78% .23
Dec
3		 North Alabama F F+ C+ F F 29% 14% 57% D F F+ A+ C- C+ C F D C- A+ D A+ A- 47% 29% 24% B+ A- F C F C+ C- F F+
0.97 50% 43% 25% -9 0 0.84 27% 1.4 .38 14% .29 63% .18 1.00 38% 40% 25% -12 -1 0.76 48% 1.1 .50 19% .32 82% .26
Dec
7		 Mississippi St. C+ A+ F F D- 25% 24% 51% C+ D B- A+ A+ A F F F A D A- B+ A 22% 35% 44% A+ A B- B B F A+ A+ A+
1.05 85% 25% 15% -11 -1 0.78 29% 1.7 .50 10% .18 60% .11 1.00 67% 32% 29% -3 -3 0.89 29% 0.9 .27 8% .14 25% .04
Dec
13		 Saint Louis B+ B- A+ F+ B+ 17% 19% 64% D+ B C- A+ B- B+ B- D+ C+ C+ F+ B+ A- B 52% 12% 37% C+ B D A+ A- F+ F C+ F
1.06 56% 70% 26% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.1 .27 13% .34 71% .24 1.21 70% 33% 32% +5 +2 1.15 36% 0.7 .25 13% .41 72% .29
Dec
17		 Loyola Chicago A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% B- A+ D A C A+ A+ F A+ F F A+ A+ B+ 47% 19% 35% C+ B+ C- F F+ F F D- F
1.40 47% 71% 52% +15 0 1.33 25% 1.3 .32 7% .46 69% .32 1.17 70% 13% 20% -7 +1 0.91 32% 1.2 .38 8% .59 73% .43
Dec
21		 Morgan St. A A+ F F C- 42% 23% 35% D- D+ A A+ A+ C+ A+ D+ A+ C+ F B- C- F+ 15% 39% 46% A+ D+ A+ F C- D+ C B+ B-
1.39 83% 30% 20% +1 0 1.05 47% 1.5 .70 15% .78 69% .54 0.95 71% 33% 33% 0 -4 0.93 18% 1.5 .26 18% .34 68% .23
Dec
28		 Seattle C F C F F 39% 11% 50% B+ F F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 21% 37% C+ A+ D- A+ B F C+ F D+
0.95 28% 40% 26% -18 +1 0.70 22% 2.0 .44 14% .40 79% .31 0.84 50% 8% 19% -18 0 0.67 29% 0.5 .16 7% .27 83% .23
Dec
30		 Oregon St. D D+ A+ F F 42% 20% 38% C- F F A+ C- C+ A C- A- C A+ F F F 33% 18% 49% C F A+ F A+ D+ A+ F B+
0.98 53% 56% 12% -11 0 0.80 22% 1.4 .30 14% .41 73% .30 1.11 40% 75% 45% +9 0 1.20 5% 3.0 .14 16% .26 93% .25
Jan
2		 San Diego D- A A+ F F 35% 13% 52% C F C A- B A- F+ B D A F F A+ B 32% 29% 39% B B A+ A+ A+ F+ B F C+
1.04 72% 57% 15% -7 +1 0.88 35% 1.3 .44 15% .28 76% .22 0.90 72% 50% 18% -1 -1 0.96 9% 0.7 .06 14% .20 83% .16
Jan
4		 Portland D+ D- F C+ F+ 33% 14% 53% C+ D- A+ F C+ B A+ F A+ C+ F F A+ D+ 32% 21% 47% B+ C- A+ A+ A+ A F F+ F
1.08 50% 0% 35% -7 0 0.88 50% 0.8 .38 15% .59 62% .36 1.01 73% 60% 23% +2 -1 1.04 21% 0.7 .14 25% .38 79% .30
Jan
8		 Loyola Marymount C F+ F D- F 37% 23% 40% C+ F+ C+ A- B C A A- A+ C+ B C- C+ B 47% 22% 31% F+ B- A+ F B+ F A+ F A-
1.02 45% 21% 29% -11 0 0.78 33% 1.2 .40 16% .37 80% .30 1.05 53% 40% 33% -2 0 0.99 15% 1.3 .21 10% .12 100% .12
Jan
10		 Pepperdine B+ B A A A 36% 8% 57% C+ A- A+ F C+ D F F F A C A+ A+ A+ 33% 33% 33% A A+ C A- B F F B F
1.21 63% 50% 40% +8 +2 1.21 44% 0.8 .36 18% .18 50% .09 0.91 56% 25% 13% -16 -2 0.67 28% 0.8 .22 9% .48 72% .35
Jan
13		 St. Mary's C+ B- D+ B+ A- 31% 28% 41% D B+ D A+ B B C- F F D- B D+ F D 40% 32% 28% A D+ A F C- C- F F+ F
1.02 59% 33% 36% 0 -1 1.00 18% 1.6 .29 14% .23 38% .09 1.23 53% 40% 54% +7 -1 1.13 29% 1.5 .43 15% .44 88% .39
Jan
18		 Washington St. A C- C+ A+ A+ 33% 25% 42% C- A A A+ A+ F+ B+ A+ A F+ F C+ F F 47% 15% 38% D- F A A+ A+ D A+ A A+
1.32 56% 42% 50% +10 -1 1.21 37% 1.4 .52 19% .34 83% .29 1.24 76% 38% 50% +17 +1 1.40 23% 0.7 .15 16% .06 67% .04
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Gonzaga B- F F A+ A 23% 23% 53% C A C+ B+ B- D+ D F D- A+ A+ F A+ A+ 43% 26% 30% D+ A+ A+ D- A D- F+ A+ B-
0.97 18% 27% 52% +3 -1 1.04 25% 1.0 .25 22% .25 62% .15 1.00 48% 64% 13% -7 0 0.87 24% 1.3 .31 10% .36 50% .18
Jan
28		 Santa Clara B- A+ D B A+ 41% 22% 37% D+ A B F F C+ A F B D+ D A- F D 35% 23% 42% B+ C- A+ F B- F B- D C+
1.06 79% 30% 35% +8 0 1.17 35% 0.5 .18 20% .42 65% .27 1.27 67% 36% 44% +9 -1 1.18 27% 1.3 .36 10% .21 77% .16
Jan
31		 Pacific A+ B- D A+ A- 46% 18% 36% A A A- B- A- A A+ B- A+ F B- A- C A- 54% 18% 28% F+ B B F F F C+ F D
1.28 61% 33% 44% +6 +1 1.16 33% 1.1 .36 10% .43 73% .31 1.21 52% 33% 36% -3 +1 0.98 31% 2.1 .66 15% .26 93% .24
Feb
4		 Loyola Marymount C C- F D+ F 34% 23% 43% C F+ D+ C D+ A A+ A+ A+ F D A- F F+ 38% 25% 37% C- F+ D+ A+ B F+ F F F
1.09 53% 0% 32% -12 -1 0.77 28% 1.0 .28 12% .69 88% .61 1.22 65% 31% 47% +8 -1 1.17 29% 0.8 .24 15% .36 76% .27
Feb
7		 St. Mary's D- F F F F 29% 17% 54% C+ F F F F A+ B- A+ A+ D+ B D+ F D+ 52% 19% 30% D- D+ B- A A- F A+ A- A+
0.84 40% 22% 25% -15 0 0.71 15% 0.7 .10 9% .27 94% .26 1.23 54% 40% 50% +5 +1 1.15 34% 0.9 .31 8% .14 75% .10
Feb
12		 Oregon St. D+ D+ F F F 39% 16% 45% C F B+ C B B- C+ F C- F F A+ F F 37% 21% 42% C+ F F F F D F F F
1.04 53% 25% 23% -12 +1 0.80 38% 1.0 .38 13% .34 67% .23 1.48 69% 22% 56% +14 0 1.30 42% 1.9 .79 15% .52 89% .46
Feb
15		 San Diego A+ A+ F A+ A+ 44% 9% 47% B+ A+ F+ F F B+ A+ B+ A+ D+ C F C+ D+ 24% 35% 41% A+ C A F F F D- F F
1.33 80% 25% 43% +15 +2 1.36 27% 0.8 .23 16% .60 77% .46 1.14 58% 50% 33% +4 -3 1.04 23% 1.9 .42 13% .30 83% .25
Feb
18		 Gonzaga D C+ C F F+ 29% 23% 48% B- D- A- D B- B- A+ D- A- C+ F F B D- 29% 43% 29% A+ D+ A+ A A+ D- A+ F A+
0.88 57% 36% 17% -13 -1 0.75 31% 0.8 .23 19% .41 64% .26 1.19 81% 54% 31% +12 -4 1.20 21% 1.0 .21 10% .13 88% .12



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 5.4 9.9 15.3 4th
5th 0.2 17.0 1.7 18.9 5th
6th 4.6 17.4 0.1 22.1 6th
7th 26.8 5.3 32.1 7th
8th 11.1 11.1 8th
9th 0.6 0.6 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 43.2 45.1 11.7 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 11.7% 0.4% 0.4% 12.0 0.1 11.6
8-10 45.1% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 45.0
7-11 43.2% 0.1% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 43.2
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 12.5 99.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.5%
Lose Out 16.7%