Oregon St.
West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#76
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#113
Pace63.6#316
Improvement+0.4#161

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#76
First Shot+5.7#42
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#281
Layup/Dunks-1.0#215
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#77
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#67
Freethrows+0.8#131
Improvement+2.0#42

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#84
First Shot+3.7#69
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#204
Layups/Dunks+4.7#52
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#254
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#316
Freethrows+3.8#12
Improvement-1.6#310
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 6.5% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.3% 2.4% 0.7%
Average Seed 10.6 10.6 11.3
.500 or above 95.8% 96.5% 84.2%
.500 or above in Conference 89.2% 89.7% 81.6%
Conference Champion 3.3% 3.5% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four1.4% 1.4% 0.4%
First Round5.7% 5.9% 2.5%
Second Round2.3% 2.4% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho (Home) - 93.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 5
Quad 22 - 33 - 8
Quad 34 - 17 - 10
Quad 412 - 119 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 291   Utah Tech W 80-57 94%     1 - 0 +13.2 +2.9 +10.4
  Nov 08, 2024 210   Weber St. W 76-48 88%     2 - 0 +22.7 +6.9 +18.3
  Nov 15, 2024 307   Cal St. Fullerton W 70-51 94%     3 - 0 +8.5 +3.4 +7.6
  Nov 21, 2024 22   Oregon L 75-78 35%     3 - 1 +8.3 +11.7 -3.6
  Nov 25, 2024 77   @ North Texas L 55-58 39%     3 - 2 +7.2 +2.3 +4.3
  Nov 30, 2024 204   UC Davis W 90-57 87%     4 - 2 +28.1 +24.7 +5.6
  Dec 07, 2024 265   Idaho W 77-61 94%    
  Dec 14, 2024 57   UC Irvine W 68-67 53%    
  Dec 17, 2024 320   Sacramento St. W 74-55 96%    
  Dec 22, 2024 127   College of Charleston W 75-69 70%    
  Dec 30, 2024 309   Portland W 79-61 95%    
  Jan 02, 2025 181   @ Loyola Marymount W 70-65 69%    
  Jan 04, 2025 312   San Diego W 79-61 95%    
  Jan 09, 2025 84   @ Santa Clara L 70-72 43%    
  Jan 11, 2025 277   @ Pacific W 74-63 83%    
  Jan 16, 2025 1   Gonzaga L 69-80 17%    
  Jan 18, 2025 64   @ San Francisco L 66-71 34%    
  Jan 23, 2025 258   Pepperdine W 77-61 92%    
  Jan 25, 2025 84   Santa Clara W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 28, 2025 1   @ Gonzaga L 66-83 7%    
  Feb 06, 2025 74   Washington St. W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 42   St. Mary's L 65-66 47%    
  Feb 13, 2025 309   @ Portland W 76-64 86%    
  Feb 15, 2025 277   Pacific W 77-60 93%    
  Feb 20, 2025 258   @ Pepperdine W 74-64 80%    
  Feb 22, 2025 312   @ San Diego W 76-64 86%    
  Feb 27, 2025 64   San Francisco W 69-68 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 42   @ St. Mary's L 62-69 27%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 3.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 5.8 7.3 3.6 0.7 19.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.6 8.3 7.5 1.9 0.1 20.7 3rd
4th 0.4 3.2 8.8 6.5 1.0 0.0 20.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.5 7.5 4.8 0.6 0.0 17.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.2 5.2 2.9 0.2 12.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.5 2.0 0.8 0.1 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.0 6.0 9.9 13.9 16.7 17.3 14.4 9.7 4.9 1.9 0.4 0.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1
16-2 62.0% 1.2    0.7 0.5 0.0
15-3 24.3% 1.2    0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 4.7% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.4 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 40.6% 59.4% 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 77.8% 24.3% 53.5% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 70.7%
16-2 1.9% 50.6% 13.3% 37.2% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.9 43.0%
15-3 4.9% 28.3% 13.8% 14.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.1 3.5 16.9%
14-4 9.7% 15.0% 11.1% 3.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 8.3 4.3%
13-5 14.4% 7.2% 6.1% 1.1% 11.3 0.1 0.7 0.3 13.4 1.2%
12-6 17.3% 3.4% 3.4% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 16.7 0.1%
11-7 16.7% 1.8% 1.8% 11.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 16.4
10-8 13.9% 0.7% 0.7% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.8
9-9 9.9% 0.5% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.9
8-10 6.0% 0.5% 0.5% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0
7-11 3.0% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 3.0
6-12 1.3% 1.3
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.3% 4.1% 2.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 3.2 1.3 0.0 0.0 93.7 2.3%