Oregon St.
Pac-12
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#196
Expected Predictive Rating-1.6#204
Pace63.1#315
Improvement+0.4#133

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#245
First Shot+1.5#120
After Offensive Rebound-3.7#361
Layup/Dunks-0.4#193
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#175
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#153
Freethrows+1.0#97
Improvement+0.0#184

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#150
First Shot+0.5#158
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#153
Layups/Dunks+0.0#181
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#95
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#221
Freethrows+0.0#189
Improvement+0.4#127
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 47.8% 30.3% 53.2%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado (Home) - 23.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 70 - 11
Quad 21 - 61 - 18
Quad 33 - 14 - 19
Quad 45 - 29 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 229   Tulsa W 73-70 68%     1 - 0 -3.1 -4.7 +1.6
  Nov 11, 2022 358   Florida A&M W 60-43 94%     2 - 0 -1.7 -12.7 +12.5
  Nov 19, 2022 237   Portland St. L 66-79 70%     2 - 1 -19.7 -13.0 -6.3
  Nov 24, 2022 31   Duke L 51-54 11%     2 - 2 +9.2 -2.5 +10.9
  Nov 25, 2022 41   Florida L 68-81 13%     2 - 3 -2.1 +8.6 -11.7
  Nov 27, 2022 237   Portland St. L 71-83 60%     2 - 4 -16.0 -8.9 -6.4
  Dec 01, 2022 95   Washington W 66-65 36%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +3.4 -3.5 +6.9
  Dec 04, 2022 42   @ USC L 62-63 9%     3 - 5 1 - 1 +12.3 +4.6 +7.6
  Dec 11, 2022 39   @ Texas A&M L 54-72 9%     3 - 6 -4.4 -6.9 +0.6
  Dec 15, 2022 120   Seattle W 73-58 44%     4 - 6 +15.3 +4.9 +10.9
  Dec 18, 2022 362   Green Bay W 65-56 95%     5 - 6 -10.7 -12.8 +2.8
  Dec 21, 2022 313   Denver W 57-52 82%     6 - 6 -6.1 -20.3 +14.4
  Dec 31, 2022 49   @ Oregon L 68-77 10%     6 - 7 1 - 2 +3.4 +12.3 -10.5
  Jan 05, 2023 43   @ Utah L 60-79 10%     6 - 8 1 - 3 -6.0 -0.9 -6.3
  Jan 07, 2023 57   @ Colorado L 42-62 11%     6 - 9 1 - 4 -8.1 -20.8 +12.1
  Jan 12, 2023 11   Arizona L 74-86 10%     6 - 10 1 - 5 +0.7 +3.2 -2.0
  Jan 14, 2023 61   Arizona St. L 69-74 23%     6 - 11 1 - 6 +1.3 +5.7 -4.6
  Jan 19, 2023 94   @ Stanford L 46-67 19%     6 - 12 1 - 7 -13.2 -17.4 +1.5
  Jan 22, 2023 215   @ California W 68-48 43%     7 - 12 2 - 7 +20.4 +8.4 +15.5
  Jan 26, 2023 43   Utah L 44-63 20%     7 - 13 2 - 8 -11.3 -15.6 +1.0
  Jan 28, 2023 57   Colorado L 61-69 23%    
  Feb 02, 2023 61   @ Arizona St. L 58-71 10%    
  Feb 04, 2023 11   @ Arizona L 62-81 3%    
  Feb 09, 2023 4   UCLA L 55-72 6%    
  Feb 11, 2023 42   USC L 61-70 20%    
  Feb 16, 2023 68   @ Washington St. L 56-68 12%    
  Feb 18, 2023 95   @ Washington L 62-71 19%    
  Feb 25, 2023 49   Oregon L 63-71 22%    
  Mar 02, 2023 94   Stanford L 63-67 37%    
  Mar 04, 2023 215   California W 63-59 64%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 4 - 16





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 1.3 0.2 3.1 9th
10th 0.1 2.7 7.6 6.5 1.4 0.0 18.3 10th
11th 10.2 22.4 13.8 2.8 0.1 49.2 11th
12th 7.7 14.0 5.7 0.7 0.0 28.2 12th
Total 7.7 24.3 30.8 22.3 10.7 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11 0.1% 0.1
8-12 0.8% 0.8
7-13 3.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.3
6-14 10.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.7
5-15 22.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 22.2
4-16 30.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 30.7
3-17 24.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 24.3
2-18 7.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.7
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 7.7% 0.1% 16.0 0.1