Oregon St.
Pac-12
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#127
Expected Predictive Rating-10.9#314
Pace64.0#306
Improvement+0.6#133

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#144
First Shot+2.6#108
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#275
Layup/Dunks+3.7#66
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#65
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#288
Freethrows+0.4#152
Improvement+1.0#79

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#110
First Shot+2.2#107
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#219
Layups/Dunks+1.2#149
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#13
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#297
Freethrows+0.5#162
Improvement-0.5#227
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.1 12.5 11.3
.500 or above 3.9% 7.2% 2.0%
.500 or above in Conference 9.7% 16.2% 5.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 27.1% 13.4% 35.4%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California (Away) - 37.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 9
Quad 22 - 73 - 16
Quad 33 - 47 - 20
Quad 44 - 210 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 269   Portland St. W 73-64 86%     1 - 0 +0.0 -6.8 +6.3
  Nov 12, 2021 59   @ Iowa St. L 50-60 22%     1 - 1 +0.8 -17.2 +18.3
  Nov 15, 2021 142   @ Tulsa L 58-64 41%     1 - 2 -1.2 -5.3 +3.2
  Nov 18, 2021 239   Samford L 77-78 81%     1 - 3 -7.9 -2.5 -5.4
  Nov 21, 2021 151   Princeton L 80-81 67%     1 - 4 -3.0 +9.8 -12.9
  Nov 26, 2021 81   Wake Forest L 77-80 OT 34%     1 - 5 +3.8 -1.4 +5.5
  Nov 27, 2021 67   Penn St. L 45-60 32%     1 - 6 -7.7 -12.6 +1.1
  Dec 02, 2021 122   @ California L 61-64 38%    
  Dec 05, 2021 4   Arizona L 65-77 13%    
  Dec 11, 2021 295   Sacramento St. W 73-60 88%    
  Dec 14, 2021 212   UC Davis W 73-65 76%    
  Dec 18, 2021 80   Texas A&M L 63-64 44%    
  Dec 21, 2021 233   Nicholls St. W 74-65 80%    
  Dec 30, 2021 57   Utah L 65-68 41%    
  Jan 01, 2022 75   Colorado L 66-67 46%    
  Jan 08, 2022 44   Oregon L 64-69 35%    
  Jan 13, 2022 16   @ USC L 58-73 8%    
  Jan 15, 2022 8   @ UCLA L 60-78 6%    
  Jan 20, 2022 145   Washington W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 22, 2022 60   Washington St. L 67-69 42%    
  Jan 29, 2022 44   @ Oregon L 61-72 17%    
  Feb 03, 2022 57   @ Utah L 62-71 22%    
  Feb 05, 2022 75   @ Colorado L 63-70 26%    
  Feb 09, 2022 122   California W 64-61 61%    
  Feb 12, 2022 95   Stanford W 69-68 50%    
  Feb 17, 2022 4   @ Arizona L 62-80 5%    
  Feb 19, 2022 96   @ Arizona St. L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 24, 2022 16   USC L 61-70 21%    
  Feb 26, 2022 8   UCLA L 63-75 14%    
  Mar 03, 2022 60   @ Washington St. L 64-72 24%    
  Mar 05, 2022 145   @ Washington L 67-69 41%    
Projected Record 10 - 21 6 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.0 2.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.8 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 3.7 2.9 0.5 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 4.6 3.7 0.8 0.0 10.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.5 6.0 5.2 1.7 0.1 14.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 2.4 6.2 5.9 1.5 0.2 16.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.3 6.4 5.8 1.5 0.3 18.0 11th
12th 0.6 1.9 5.0 5.1 4.0 0.9 0.1 17.6 12th
Total 0.6 1.9 5.7 8.5 12.9 14.5 15.1 13.3 10.4 7.4 4.5 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0%
16-4 0.0%
15-5 27.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 8.6% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 41.9% 13.5% 28.4% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 32.8%
14-6 0.2% 19.8% 0.9% 19.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 19.1%
13-7 0.7% 3.2% 3.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.2%
12-8 1.5% 4.0% 2.7% 1.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.3%
11-9 2.6% 0.8% 0.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 2.6
10-10 4.5% 1.3% 1.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 4.4
9-11 7.4% 0.9% 0.9% 13.6 0.0 0.0 7.4
8-12 10.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.4
7-13 13.3% 13.3
6-14 15.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.1
5-15 14.5% 14.5
4-16 12.9% 12.9
3-17 8.5% 8.5
2-18 5.7% 5.7
1-19 1.9% 1.9
0-20 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.1%