Santa Clara
West Coast
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#93
Expected Predictive Rating+7.7#69
Pace75.2#34
Improvement+0.1#172

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#72
First Shot+1.3#129
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#30
Layup/Dunks-1.2#234
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#79
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#149
Freethrows-0.1#183
Improvement+1.5#17

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#125
First Shot+0.9#141
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#110
Layups/Dunks+3.3#59
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#333
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#284
Freethrows+2.5#28
Improvement-1.4#340
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 7.9% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 3.0% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.0 11.3 12.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 73.8% 92.8% 71.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four0.5% 2.2% 0.2%
First Round4.2% 6.5% 3.9%
Second Round0.9% 1.6% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gonzaga (Away) - 11.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 5
Quad 22 - 23 - 7
Quad 39 - 212 - 9
Quad 47 - 119 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 161   Eastern Washington W 84-72 77%     1 - 0 +9.6 -4.3 +12.1
  Nov 10, 2022 227   Georgia Southern W 78-62 85%     2 - 0 +10.2 -2.9 +11.9
  Nov 14, 2022 47   @ Utah St. L 74-96 24%     2 - 1 -9.3 -4.2 -2.5
  Nov 18, 2022 124   DePaul W 69-61 61%     3 - 1 +10.5 -8.7 +18.7
  Nov 20, 2022 65   Central Florida L 50-57 38%     3 - 2 +1.4 -13.3 +14.0
  Nov 26, 2022 85   Iona W 86-76 48%     4 - 2 +15.9 +9.4 +5.7
  Nov 30, 2022 139   Wyoming W 89-85 OT 64%     5 - 2 +5.7 +14.1 -8.5
  Dec 03, 2022 219   Sacramento St. W 72-65 84%     6 - 2 +1.8 +4.0 -1.4
  Dec 07, 2022 184   New Mexico St. W 66-65 80%     7 - 2 -2.4 -10.4 +8.0
  Dec 10, 2022 119   San Jose St. L 64-75 70%     7 - 3 -11.0 -6.0 -5.9
  Dec 13, 2022 247   Portland St. W 78-75 88%     8 - 3 -4.2 -3.3 -1.0
  Dec 15, 2022 100   UC Irvine W 86-74 63%     9 - 3 +13.9 +13.3 +0.4
  Dec 18, 2022 224   California W 71-62 85%     10 - 3 +3.3 -2.0 +5.5
  Dec 22, 2022 36   Boise St. W 73-58 36%     11 - 3 +24.0 +11.7 +13.0
  Dec 29, 2022 88   San Francisco W 79-67 59%     12 - 3 1 - 0 +14.9 +6.7 +8.1
  Dec 31, 2022 12   St. Mary's L 64-67 25%     12 - 4 1 - 1 +9.3 +8.7 +0.2
  Jan 05, 2023 190   @ Pepperdine W 89-79 64%     13 - 4 2 - 1 +11.6 +10.7 +0.2
  Jan 07, 2023 13   Gonzaga L 76-81 26%     13 - 5 2 - 2 +7.2 +5.3 +1.9
  Jan 14, 2023 208   @ Pacific W 92-81 67%     14 - 5 3 - 2 +11.9 +10.7 +0.4
  Jan 19, 2023 81   BYU W 83-76 56%     15 - 5 4 - 2 +10.8 +4.9 +5.1
  Jan 21, 2023 12   @ St. Mary's L 58-77 13%     15 - 6 4 - 3 -1.3 +7.2 -11.8
  Jan 28, 2023 208   Pacific L 89-95 82%     15 - 7 4 - 4 -10.5 +2.3 -12.2
  Feb 02, 2023 13   @ Gonzaga L 76-88 12%    
  Feb 04, 2023 88   @ San Francisco L 76-79 38%    
  Feb 09, 2023 216   San Diego W 86-76 84%    
  Feb 11, 2023 91   Loyola Marymount W 76-73 61%    
  Feb 16, 2023 81   @ BYU L 73-77 35%    
  Feb 18, 2023 166   @ Portland W 81-79 58%    
  Feb 23, 2023 190   Pepperdine W 85-76 81%    
  Feb 25, 2023 216   @ San Diego W 84-79 66%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 8 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 12.2 12.4 3.6 0.2 30.1 3rd
4th 0.8 13.4 13.5 2.4 0.1 30.3 4th
5th 0.1 6.6 10.8 1.1 0.0 18.6 5th
6th 1.7 8.4 1.4 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.2 4.0 1.8 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.1 1.4 7.0 17.7 27.4 26.8 15.0 4.2 0.4 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 1.9% 0.0    0.0
11-5 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.4% 42.6% 7.2% 35.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 38.1%
11-5 4.2% 10.6% 5.9% 4.6% 11.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 3.7 4.9%
10-6 15.0% 5.9% 5.0% 0.9% 11.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 14.1 0.9%
9-7 26.8% 4.6% 4.4% 0.2% 12.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 25.6 0.2%
8-8 27.4% 3.7% 3.6% 0.0% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 26.4 0.0%
7-9 17.7% 2.7% 2.7% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 17.2
6-10 7.0% 3.2% 3.2% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.8
5-11 1.4% 3.1% 3.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 1.4
4-12 0.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 4.5% 4.0% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 95.5 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 42.6% 10.1 2.4 7.2 15.3 17.2 0.5
Lose Out 0.1% 2.0% 16.0 2.0