Santa Clara
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.2#52
Expected Predictive Rating+14.3#33
Pace71.4#137
Improvement-2.0#322

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#60
First Shot+0.7#156
After Offensive Rebound+5.0#7
Layup/Dunks+4.8#40
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#236
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#154
Freethrows-3.9#340
Improvement-1.2#285

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#58
First Shot+5.8#35
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#277
Layups/Dunks+2.0#112
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#185
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.5#8
Freethrows-4.1#347
Improvement-0.8#260
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.9% 2.0% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.5% 29.0% 16.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 20.3% 20.7% 10.2%
Average Seed 9.7 9.6 10.3
.500 or above 99.6% 99.7% 97.7%
.500 or above in Conference 96.1% 96.3% 91.6%
Conference Champion 9.4% 9.5% 5.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four8.8% 8.9% 6.9%
First Round24.2% 24.6% 13.2%
Second Round11.0% 11.3% 4.4%
Sweet Sixteen2.9% 3.0% 0.7%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.0% 0.5%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Tech (Home) - 96.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 4
Quad 24 - 26 - 6
Quad 310 - 215 - 8
Quad 48 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 85 McNeese St. W 79-67 74%     1 - 0 +15.4 +11.5 +4.4
  Mon, Nov 10 78 @Xavier W 87-68 50%     2 - 0 +29.2 +17.9 +10.9
  Sat, Nov 15 105 Nevada W 98-83 80%     3 - 0 +16.4 +24.9 -8.6
  Tue, Nov 18 178 Idaho St. W 64-55 91%     4 - 0 +4.7 -4.0 +9.6
  Fri, Nov 21 317 Louisiana W 80-43 97%     5 - 0 +25.2 +8.2 +18.9
  Thu, Nov 27 48 Saint Louis L 70-71 46%     5 - 1 +10.1 +2.4 +7.7
  Fri, Nov 28 108 Minnesota W 86-75 72%     6 - 1 +15.0 +19.4 -3.8
  Wed, Dec 3 267 Utah Tech W 81-62 96%    
  Sat, Dec 6 104 @New Mexico W 81-78 60%    
  Sat, Dec 13 81 Arizona St. W 79-76 61%    
  Wed, Dec 17 148 North Texas W 74-64 82%    
  Sat, Dec 20 262 Loyola Chicago W 82-66 93%    
  Sun, Dec 28 186 @Oregon St. W 76-67 79%    
  Tue, Dec 30 273 @Portland W 83-70 89%    
  Fri, Jan 2 300 Pepperdine W 84-63 97%    
  Sun, Jan 4 255 San Diego W 87-69 95%    
  Thu, Jan 8 6 @Gonzaga L 72-85 13%    
  Sat, Jan 10 141 Loyola Marymount W 78-66 86%    
  Wed, Jan 14 142 Pacific W 78-66 86%    
  Sat, Jan 17 44 St. Mary's W 73-71 55%    
  Sat, Jan 24 255 @San Diego W 84-72 86%    
  Wed, Jan 28 88 San Francisco W 79-72 74%    
  Sat, Jan 31 141 @Loyola Marymount W 75-69 70%    
  Wed, Feb 4 142 @Pacific W 75-69 70%    
  Sat, Feb 7 158 @Washington St. W 82-75 74%    
  Wed, Feb 11 112 Seattle W 77-67 80%    
  Sat, Feb 14 6 Gonzaga L 75-82 27%    
  Sat, Feb 21 88 @San Francisco W 76-75 55%    
  Wed, Feb 25 44 @St. Mary's L 70-74 35%    
  Sat, Feb 28 186 Oregon St. W 79-64 91%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.8 3.6 2.0 0.3 9.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 6.7 11.4 9.1 2.4 31.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.3 9.3 10.0 4.3 0.4 27.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.2 4.8 1.2 0.0 15.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 3.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.0 1.4 0.2 4.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.4 4.7 7.9 12.3 16.3 18.0 16.3 12.3 6.0 2.0 0.3 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 2.0    1.6 0.4
16-2 60.5% 3.6    1.7 1.9 0.1
15-3 22.7% 2.8    0.8 1.5 0.5 0.0
14-4 3.8% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.4% 9.4 4.4 4.1 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 46.0% 54.0% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.0% 93.5% 30.4% 63.1% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 90.7%
16-2 6.0% 79.0% 26.4% 52.6% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.3 71.5%
15-3 12.3% 60.7% 18.2% 42.5% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.4 2.2 0.0 4.8 51.9%
14-4 16.3% 40.3% 14.2% 26.1% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.2 3.1 0.2 9.7 30.4%
13-5 18.0% 24.1% 9.3% 14.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.8 0.2 13.7 16.4%
12-6 16.3% 13.1% 6.2% 6.9% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 0.2 14.2 7.3%
11-7 12.3% 6.1% 3.7% 2.4% 11.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 11.6 2.5%
10-8 7.9% 3.7% 2.7% 1.1% 11.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.6 1.1%
9-9 4.7% 1.4% 1.3% 0.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.1%
8-10 2.4% 0.7% 0.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 2.4
7-11 0.9% 0.9
6-12 0.4% 0.4
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.5% 10.3% 18.2% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.2 3.9 7.2 11.0 0.7 0.0 71.5 20.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.3 4.5 18.2 36.4 27.3 9.1 4.5