Colorado
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
8  Erin Clark JR 19:25
19  Kaitlyn Benner SO 19:32
59  Maddie Alm SR 19:51
89  Dani Jones FR 19:59
93  Melanie Nun SO 20:00
185  Val Constien FR 20:17
216  Carrie Verdon JR 20:23
372  Lucy May SO 20:43
586  Eryn Blakely SO 21:02
National Rank #2 of 339
Mountain Region Rank #2 of 20
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.9%
Most Likely Finish 2nd at Nationals


National Champion 3.8%
Top 5 at Nationals 66.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 90.4%
Top 20 at Nationals 99.6%


Regional Champion 5.0%
Top 5 in Regional 99.9%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Erin Clark Kaitlyn Benner Maddie Alm Dani Jones Melanie Nun Val Constien Carrie Verdon Lucy May Eryn Blakely
Rocky Mountain Shootout 10/03 569 19:26 20:05 20:26 20:35 20:30 21:13
D1 Pre-Nationals (Red) 10/17 415 19:29 19:50 19:56 20:21 20:24 20:32 20:47
Pac 12 Championships 10/30 270 19:34 19:31 19:50 20:13 19:46 20:17 20:15 20:48 20:59
Mountain Region Championships 11/13 288 19:33 19:33 19:51 19:56 20:10 20:11 20:32
NCAA Championship 11/21 192 19:21 19:23 19:46 19:47 19:52 20:18 20:25





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.9% 5.2 219 3.8 24.0 16.0 12.3 9.8 7.1 5.4 4.9 3.8 3.2 2.5 1.7 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 2.0 61 5.0 90.7 3.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Erin Clark 100% 16.1 0.5 1.7 3.0 3.4 3.7 4.2 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.0 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.6 3.0 2.8 2.0 2.0 2.6 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.7
Kaitlyn Benner 100.0% 24.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.0 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.2 2.5 1.9 2.7 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.1 1.8
Maddie Alm 99.9% 64.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8
Dani Jones 99.9% 87.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3
Melanie Nun 99.9% 89.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3
Val Constien 99.9% 141.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carrie Verdon 99.9% 158.2 0.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Erin Clark 4.4 10.2 10.3 12.0 12.6 12.4 11.6 9.7 7.7 5.2 3.2 1.7 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Kaitlyn Benner 6.1 3.7 6.3 7.2 9.1 10.8 12.2 11.8 10.8 8.0 5.9 3.9 3.0 2.0 1.7 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Maddie Alm 12.2 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 2.0 3.2 4.5 6.0 7.2 8.0 7.9 7.6 6.8 6.5 5.8 4.6 4.0 3.1 3.2 2.5 2.7 2.4 1.6 1.2 1.4
Dani Jones 16.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.8 3.7 4.6 5.9 5.7 6.0 5.6 5.8 5.3 5.2 4.8 4.7 4.0 4.0 3.4 3.1 3.1 2.5
Melanie Nun 16.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.3 2.3 3.4 3.7 5.7 5.4 5.9 6.4 6.1 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.3
Val Constien 27.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.9 2.8 3.3 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.8 3.9
Carrie Verdon 32.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.2 3.0 3.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 5.0% 100.0% 5.0 5.0 1
2 90.7% 100.0% 90.7 90.7 2
3 3.6% 100.0% 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.6 3
4 0.4% 100.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 4
5 0.1% 80.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5
6 0.1% 33.3% 0.0 0.1 0.0 6
7 0.0% 0.0 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
Total 100% 99.9% 5.0 90.7 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 95.7 4.1




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Oregon 99.9% 2.0 2.0
Washington 99.2% 1.0 1.0
Stanford 98.8% 2.0 2.0
Miss State 98.3% 1.0 1.0
Georgetown 83.8% 1.0 0.8
Utah 63.8% 2.0 1.3
Purdue 53.2% 1.0 0.5
Texas 43.8% 1.0 0.4
Weber State 40.5% 1.0 0.4
Villanova 30.4% 1.0 0.3
Kansas 26.0% 1.0 0.3
Yale 19.5% 1.0 0.2
Air Force 10.1% 1.0 0.1
Stephen F. Austin 9.1% 1.0 0.1
Colorado St. 8.8% 1.0 0.1
Arizona State 8.4% 1.0 0.1
Rice 5.9% 1.0 0.1
California 5.3% 2.0 0.1
Brown 5.0% 1.0 0.1
Oklahoma 2.3% 1.0 0.0
Florida 1.7% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 1.4% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 1.3% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Washington 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Bradley 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.3% 1.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 0.2% 1.0 0.0
New Hampshire 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Connecticut 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 10.9
Minimum 3.0
Maximum 18.0