Colorado
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
3  Pierce Murphy SR 30:46
20  Morgan Pearson SR 31:16
30  Ammar Moussa SR 31:23
31  Connor Winter SR 31:23
34  John Dressel FR 31:26
35  Ben Saarel JR 31:26
137  Ryan Forsyth FR 31:59
165  Zach Perrin SO 32:08
312  Nicholas Harris JR 32:35
555  Paul Miller FR 33:05
605  Christian Martin SO 33:10
National Rank #1 of 308
Mountain Region Rank #1 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 1st at Nationals


National Champion 50.6%
Top 5 at Nationals 98.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 99.9%
Top 20 at Nationals 100.0%


Regional Champion 97.8%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Pierce Murphy Morgan Pearson Ammar Moussa Connor Winter John Dressel Ben Saarel Ryan Forsyth Zach Perrin Nicholas Harris Paul Miller Christian Martin
Rocky Mountain Shootout 10/03 269 30:59 31:06 31:10 32:07 31:33 32:34 33:04 32:34
D1 Pre-Nationals (Red) 10/17 281 31:12 31:26 31:26 31:23 31:52 31:57 32:09
Pac 12 Championships 10/30 190 31:02 31:24 31:12 31:28 31:08 31:52 32:30 32:40 33:09 33:46
Mountain Region Championships 11/13 311 31:19 31:19 31:36 31:56 31:43 31:45 31:42
NCAA Championship 11/21 136 30:27 31:07 31:21 31:13 31:07 31:11 32:51





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100% 1.9 119 50.6 24.8 13.5 6.5 2.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Region Championship 100% 1.0 33 97.8 2.1 0.2



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Pierce Murphy 100% 4.2 0.8 11.2 24.9 11.7 7.3 6.1 4.1 3.8 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4
Morgan Pearson 100% 25.8 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.5 2.2 2.4 2.9 2.7 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.1 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.8
Ammar Moussa 100% 36.2 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.3 1.9 2.2 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.5 1.6
Connor Winter 100% 34.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.9
John Dressel 100% 40.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.7 2.0 1.9
Ben Saarel 100% 40.9 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.7
Ryan Forsyth 100% 110.2 0.0 0.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Pierce Murphy 1.0 68.1 9.5 5.6 4.1 2.3 2.3 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Morgan Pearson 5.5 3.4 14.9 10.8 9.1 7.7 8.4 6.4 5.1 4.1 4.7 3.3 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4
Ammar Moussa 8.0 0.8 5.2 7.4 7.9 7.8 7.4 7.4 6.4 6.6 4.8 4.2 4.7 4.2 4.2 2.9 2.8 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.7
Connor Winter 8.0 0.8 4.4 7.1 8.4 8.0 7.7 6.9 6.4 5.9 5.8 5.9 4.6 3.6 3.7 2.8 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.6
John Dressel 9.0 0.3 2.6 5.3 6.5 7.7 7.4 6.7 7.3 6.4 6.7 5.1 4.9 4.3 4.0 3.1 2.9 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.0
Ben Saarel 8.9 0.4 2.5 4.8 6.3 7.5 7.2 8.2 7.2 6.6 6.3 5.1 4.9 4.8 3.6 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.3 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9
Ryan Forsyth 21.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 1.3 1.9 2.7 3.5 4.8 5.2 5.4 5.1 4.8 5.2 4.3 5.3 4.6 4.6 3.6




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 97.8% 100.0% 97.8 97.8 1
2 2.1% 100.0% 2.1 2.1 2
3 0.2% 100.0% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3
4 4
5 5
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 100.0% 97.8 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.2




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Arkansas 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Oregon 99.6% 2.0 2.0
Stanford 99.1% 1.0 1.0
Georgetown 98.1% 1.0 1.0
Louisville 88.3% 1.0 0.9
UTEP 80.8% 1.0 0.8
Washington 77.6% 1.0 0.8
UCLA 64.4% 1.0 0.6
Virginia Tech 61.7% 1.0 0.6
Colorado St. 53.4% 1.0 0.5
Air Force 40.3% 1.0 0.4
Texas 38.3% 1.0 0.4
Southern Utah 36.0% 1.0 0.4
Minnesota 25.4% 1.0 0.3
California 23.4% 2.0 0.5
Eastern Michigan 22.0% 1.0 0.2
Florida 8.5% 1.0 0.1
Georgia 6.3% 1.0 0.1
Cornell 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 2.3% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 2.1% 1.0 0.0
Washington St. 0.7% 2.0 0.0
North Texas 0.5% 1.0 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Yale 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Duke 0.0% 1.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 11.6
Minimum 5.0
Maximum 21.0