Carmel
Boys - Girls
2017 - 2018 - 2019
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State Rank #4
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank #2
Noblesville Regional Rank #1
Noblesville Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 3rd place at State Finals
State Champion 4.8%
Top 5 at State Finals 85.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 99.6%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.



Season Rating Hamilton County Marion Invitational BC Eagle Classic Riverview Health Flashrock Invite Metro Interscholastic Conference Nike Valley Twilight Noblesville Sectional Noblesville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/28 9/1 9/8 9/15 9/22 9/29 10/6 10/13 10/20 10/27
Team Rating 146 124 152 286 125 179 156 162 231 144 188
Team Adjusted Rating 124 152 146 125 179 156 136 149 140 188
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Hamilton County Marion Invitational BC Eagle Classic Riverview Health Flashrock Invite Metro Interscholastic Conference Nike Valley Twilight Noblesville Sectional Noblesville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State State Finals
3  Phoebe Bates 11 17:58 17:49 17:25 17:50 17:54 18:06 18:05 17:56 19:13
57  Jamie Klavon 9 19:14 19:16 19:23 19:07 19:28 19:19 19:12 19:00 19:32
66  Lindsey Roper 12 19:19 19:13 19:06 19:04 19:42 19:18 19:25 19:15 19:23
80  Abby Parker 10 19:25 19:13 19:36 19:31 19:36 19:48 19:24 19:31 19:17
93  Alivia Romaniuk 9 19:34 19:32 19:36 19:19 19:39 19:42 19:26 19:34 19:42
97  Brooke Waldal 10 19:36 19:47 19:40 19:27 19:51 19:29 19:17 19:40 19:41
126  Lily McAndrews 11 19:53 21:05 20:24 19:40 19:36 19:38 19:39 20:03 19:49
140  Roni Ledezma 10 20:00 19:19 19:54 19:50 20:42 20:21 19:48 19:46 20:15
141  Sydney Haines 11 20:01 19:35 19:51 19:59 20:25 20:36 19:39
147  Annie Christie 10 20:02 20:09 20:09 19:53 20:16 20:06 19:47 20:00 20:07
203  Halle Welch 11 20:21 20:18 20:12 20:13 20:12 20:36 20:24 20:26
239  Madison Lindfelt 12 20:30 20:11 20:39 20:17 20:01 20:46 20:31 20:47
240  Emily Hand 11 20:30 20:28 21:10 20:30 20:32 20:19 20:19
250  Elle Nichol 11 20:34 19:58 21:06 19:52 20:38 20:59 20:36
285  Brooklynn Edwards 10 20:43 21:07 20:00 20:52
303  Tori Manlick 9 20:46 20:13 21:03 20:56
343  Lilian Rose 9 20:53 20:17 21:17 20:51 20:42 21:11
355  Kierstyn Guerrant 11 20:56 20:34 21:32 20:15 21:13
363  Martha Hunter 11 20:58 21:04 21:00 20:34 20:54 21:16
392  Izza Khurram 12 21:05 21:19 21:06 20:54 21:04
477  Marianne Cadio 9 21:21 21:14 21:24
548  Gillian Thompson 9 21:33 20:59 21:27 21:31 21:47 21:45
586  Evelyn Taller 9 21:38 22:14 21:13 21:35 21:42
613  Ella Ohrvall 9 21:43 21:27 21:42 21:54
634  Olivia McKee 9 21:46 21:11 21:43 23:08 21:03 22:03
703  Mahalet Zeruesenay 10 21:54 21:15 22:23 22:29 21:57 21:37
818  Sophia Hawkins 9 22:11 23:47 22:04 22:09 21:42
828  Abbey Grogan 10 22:12 24:14 22:12 22:04 21:36
831  Jenna Rodgers 12 22:12 22:13 21:52 22:27
847  Lauren Moon 10 22:15 23:29 21:51 22:11 22:10
906  Hannah Nist 12 22:23 23:19 21:46 22:20 22:28
907  Brianna Sibley 9 22:23 21:38 22:57
979  Isabel Meyers 9 22:33 22:58 22:19 22:32
1,024  Adell Urtel 12 22:38 22:25 22:26 22:56 22:40
1,039  Audrey Kaul 11 22:41 24:07 22:16 22:36 22:34
1,061  Savannah Hill 10 22:43 24:15 22:25 22:28 22:41
1,094  Eva Brungard 12 22:47 22:27 22:41 23:05
1,102  Grace Barney 10 22:48 24:21 22:17 22:29 22:55
1,133  Tatiana Galantseva 10 22:52 26:12 22:21 22:28 22:57
1,181  Ria Patel 11 22:57 24:16 23:05 22:38 22:37
1,234  Tori Ledezma 12 23:04 22:57 23:31 22:45
1,266  Paige Ohrvall 11 23:08 26:41 23:28 22:32 22:41
1,292  Sage Moore 9 23:12 22:57 23:18 22:22 24:20
1,351  Kynlee Walker 9 23:19 23:04 23:20 23:29
1,367  Sophia Turner 9 23:21 26:29 22:47 23:10
Rachel Miller 12 23:30 23:31
Abby Kaufman 11 23:32 24:04 24:01 23:28 22:54
Yael Kiser 10 23:34 25:06 22:50 23:06 23:54
Cassidy Shank 10 23:35 23:08 23:43 23:50 23:31
Hope Stauffer 12 23:37 23:53 23:19
Lissa Heber 10 23:45 25:05 23:45 23:46 23:14
Kayla Nelsen 11 23:50 23:36 23:58 23:57 23:48
Emma Cappella 10 24:00 25:47 24:08 23:43 23:30
Maya Phipps 11 24:09 23:34 25:12 24:12 23:56
Emma Wright 12 24:36 25:57 24:41 23:01 24:47
Colleen Harless 11 24:56 25:06 24:24 25:11
Lilia Mills 10 26:13 26:19




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.




Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 3.7 187 4.8 23.8 24.4 19.6 12.4 7.2 3.8 2.2 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1
Semi-State 100% 2.2 89 29.0 32.8 26.6 9.1 2.2 0.4
Regionals 100% 1.6 56 54.9 30.7 12.6 1.9
Sectionals 100% 1.2 30 78.9 21.1



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Phoebe Bates 100% 2.6 16.8 22.0 19.7 15.0 9.4 6.2 3.7 2.4 1.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Jamie Klavon 100% 56.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 60.1%
Lindsey Roper 100% 64.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 48.4%
Abby Parker 100% 73.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 33.7%
Alivia Romaniuk 100% 87.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 16.0%
Brooke Waldal 100% 91.7 0.1 0.1 13.6%
Lily McAndrews 100% 112.3 1.8%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Phoebe Bates 100% 1.4 28.1 58.0 10.3 2.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 100.0%
Jamie Klavon 100% 20.7 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.8 4.1 3.8 4.3 3.7 4.4 4.7 4.0 3.3 4.2 3.5 100.0%
Lindsey Roper 100% 23.7 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.2 2.0 2.2 2.4 1.9 3.1 2.9 4.1 3.8 4.6 4.3 3.7 3.5 4.4 3.8 3.9 100.0%
Abby Parker 100% 28.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.5 0.8 1.3 1.4 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.2 2.5 2.5 3.3 3.3 4.2 4.2 100.0%
Alivia Romaniuk 100% 34.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.5 2.8 99.6%
Brooke Waldal 100% 35.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 1.3 1.2 1.4 2.0 2.6 99.6%
Lily McAndrews 100% 45.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 96.2%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Phoebe Bates 100% 1.0 87.7 10.5 1.5 0.3 0.1 100.0%
Jamie Klavon 100% 10.4 0.5 1.9 3.2 4.3 6.2 6.2 8.8 8.3 7.8 8.0 7.1 5.9 5.9 5.0 4.7 4.0 3.3 2.3 2.1 1.7 0.9 1.3 0.4 0.4 100.0%
Lindsey Roper 100% 12.4 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.9 4.3 5.0 5.8 6.8 6.9 7.2 5.8 7.7 5.8 6.4 6.1 4.9 4.4 4.2 3.6 3.4 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.0 100.0%
Abby Parker 100% 15.1 0.2 0.8 0.9 1.7 2.8 3.0 3.8 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.7 6.4 6.5 6.8 5.7 5.3 6.1 4.6 4.2 3.9 3.1 1.8 100.0%
Alivia Romaniuk 100% 19.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.7 2.7 2.6 3.8 3.3 4.4 5.4 5.8 7.7 8.0 7.0 7.4 7.4 6.7 6.6 5.6 100.0%
Brooke Waldal 100% 20.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.3 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.8 5.1 5.9 6.5 5.9 7.5 7.4 7.2 8.8 7.1 5.9 100.0%
Lily McAndrews 100% 25.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.2 1.5 1.6 2.7 3.3 4.3 5.1 5.7 7.4 9.7 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Phoebe Bates 1.0 99.8 0.2
Jamie Klavon 4.6 7.4 13.4 19.3 15.7 12.7 9.4 6.8 5.8 3.9 2.4 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.2
Lindsey Roper 5.8 2.9 9.2 13.2 13.8 13.7 12.0 8.6 7.4 6.7 4.4 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1
Abby Parker 7.3 1.5 3.8 7.8 9.4 11.7 12.8 12.1 9.4 8.8 8.0 5.2 4.4 2.7 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1
Alivia Romaniuk 10.0 0.2 0.6 2.1 4.0 5.6 7.3 8.3 12.0 10.2 10.8 10.6 8.8 8.5 6.3 2.8 1.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
Brooke Waldal 10.9 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.2 4.3 6.5 7.7 8.3 9.1 11.0 12.0 12.7 10.4 6.8 3.6 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Lily McAndrews 14.5 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.9 3.7 4.6 6.3 9.6 12.9 16.3 16.4 12.1 6.6 3.0 2.1 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1